Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Lucas Giolito – I’ll start by saying that pitching is pretty rough today on both slates outside of a few guys. Giolito is one of those guys, although priced all the way up. At $11.9k on Draftkings, he leads the way for pitchers on the early slate. He gets a matchup with the Kansas City Royals who have an implied run total of just 3.7 here. Giolito has been unhittable as of late, over his last ten games he is averaging 25.6 Draftkings points per game. Not only this but Giolito is very familiar with the Royals, as he has started five games against them already this season. In those five games, he is averaging 25.9 Draftkings points per game, this is a spot where I’ll be okay spending up to get a premium option here.
- Brendan McKay – Again, pitching is tough on these slates, so finding a mid-range option wasn’t the easiest thing to do, but I think McKay has a lot of upside here. He gets a matchup with the Texas Rangers, in Texas which is less than ideal, but the Rangers are not a team that scares me. They have an implied run total of 4.5 runs here, which is partially due to hitting conditions that normally come in Texas. However, in one matchup against the Rangers this season he scored 22.3 Draftkings points. The Rangers are striking out at a 25.6% rate on the season to go along with McKay’s 28.1% k rate. I like McKay as a mid-range option on the main slate.
- Gio Gonzalez – This may be the first and only time I write-up Gio this year, but I do like this spot for him considering his price tag. You can easily pair him with Giolito on the early slate and still get yourself a very nice amount of bats. Gio gets a matchup with the Marlins who we have been streaming pitchers against all year long. They have a strikeout rate of 24.6% on the season to go along with their 3.8 run implied total. Now, Gio doesn’t really have 30 Draftkings point upside, but he does have mid-twenties if he can get into a rhythm. He has a decent strikeout rate of 20.7% this season and is really more of a roster construction play than anything. Gio makes things work on the early slate, so I will get some exposure.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Arizona Diamondbacks (+124) @ New York Mets (-134)
These two teams are battling for that second wild-card spot in the NL among about four other teams, so both teams will have short leashes and roll out their A lineups. Both of these pitchers have been good as of late, Alex Young a bit better, surprisingly. Young is coming off of a 44.2 Draftking point outing against the Reds. I’m willing to look past this, I won’t be paying almost $10k for him. Stroman just doesn’t have the strikeout upside in this matchup for me to want to get to him on this slate.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Even though I don’t like pitching Stroman, I don’t necessarily want to stack against him either. There are better spots on this slate.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, JD Davis
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Ahmed Rosario
GPP Note: I like the Mets side of this game more than the Dbacks, but that’s not saying a whole lot. They have some very nice one-off options with Alonso and Davis though.
Milwaukee Brewers (-129) @ Miami Marlins (+119)
The Brewers are another one of those teams fighting for the second wild-card spot in the NL and are playing great baseball despite losing Yelich. I wrote up Gio in my pitcher’s section and like getting to him as a cheap option paired with an expensive SP1. The Marlins will run Caleb Smith out there, who I have a lot of respect for and could see him getting some attention on this slate. Even without Yelich, the Brewers are getting Moustakas and Hiura healthy so I won’t be going too crazy with Smith here.
MIL 5-star plays: Ryan Braun, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Keston Hiura (if starting)
GPP Note: I don’t love pitching Caleb Smith here but respect his stuff, I’ll likely just go with one-offs here.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: I’ll have quite a bit of Gio interest here, so I don’t want to get to the Marlins, per usual.
New York Yankees (-259) @ Detroit Tigers (+235)
JA Happ was very close to making my pitchers column, as we know streaming pitchers against the Tigers has been very profitable this season. Happ has been very good as of late, going for at least 20 Draftkings points in three straight games and gets an abysmal Detroit lineup here. With an implied run total of just 3.8 here, JA Happ makes for a very solid mid-range option on the early slate. Spencer Turnbull will take the mound for the Tigers, the Yankees will be a top stack for me on the early slate with an implied run total of over six runs.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Didi Gregorius
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Edwin Encarnacion, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Anyone that cracks this lineup will be in play for me, they are a top stack on the early slate.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I simply don’t play Tigers bats, Happ is a great SP play on the early slate.
Kansas City Royals (+163) @ Chicago White Sox (-177)
I wrote-up Lucas Giolito in my pitcher’s section and he is my top pitching option on the slate and it’s not really close. If you didn’t read the write-up on him, scroll up and read it! The Royals will pitch Jorge Lopez here who is a certified gas can. He has a 6.23 era on the season although coming off a nice start against the Marlins. The White Sox makes sense as a secondary stack on this slate.
CHI 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: The Royals have an awful bullpen and are throwing out Jorge Lopez here, I like the White Sox and their 4.9 implied run total.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Just one-offs here against Giolito and that’s being kind, I don’t see myself getting to any Royals outside of a hedge stack.
St. Louis Cardinals (-165) @ Colorado Rockies (+152)
Coors field has been a bit of a let down over the past couple days putting up a total of 6 runs in 18 innings. That said, the Cardinals have an implied run total of 7.1 while the Rockies are at 5.5 making both teams very viable as stacks here. Miles Mikolas normally isn’t a guy that I stack against, but Coors field changes that. Tim Melville will make the start for the Rockies, Melville has really been pretty good outside of a bad start against the Pirates. For this reason, I think I’ll go heavier on the Rockies, but both teams are still great stacks.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna
4-star plays: Dexter Fowler, Kolten Wong, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Melville has been good, but Coors is tough on all pitchers, the Cards are a great stack if you have the money.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Samuel Hilliard, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: I like the Rockies side a bit better on this slate despite the lower implied total, they’re expensive but maybe this is the game that finally blows up in the series.
Chicago Cubs (-144) @ San Diego Padres (+133)
The Cubs are another team fighting for that NL wild-card spot and potentially the Central division if the Cardinals run into a bit of a slump. They send Yu Darvish to the mound in a nice matchup with the Padres who rolled out a truly awful lineup yesterday. If it’s anything like that then I’ll like Darvish here, the Padres lost a lot of their pop with Tatis injured and Reyes shipped out. Dinelson Lamet is a very solid pitcher and the Cubs offense is simply struggling right now, if you want to get to him as an expensive SP2 I don’t hate it.
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Just one-offs for me, I’ll wait for a better matchup and ballpark to stack the Cubs
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers
GPP Note: I’ll probably get some Darvish exposure here, the Padres lineup just isn’t what it was earlier this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
Joe Musgrove and Jeff Samardzija is a pretty solid pitching matchup considering the ballpark. You can make a case for both pitchers as this ballpark is one of the best in the league for pitchers. With that said, neither of these teams strikeout all that much, so don’t go too wild. If I had to choose I would go with Musgrove because he’s cheap enough to pair with Giolito.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Kevin Newmann, Bryan Reynalds
GPP Note: Just one-offs for me here, these pitchers are interesting.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: I can see myself getting to Musgrove quite a bit and splitting ownership with Gio as value SP2 options to pair with Giolito.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-214) @ Baltimore Orioles (+196)
This game will kickoff the main slate with a matchup between Rich Hill and Dylan Bundy. The price on Bundy is very tempting as crazy as it sounds, but I think I’ll try and stay away from those temptations as Bundy is very susceptible to the home run ball in a small ballpark against a home run hitting team. Rich Hill is returning from the 60-day IL here, so I’ll take a wait and see approach as he will likely be limited in his first start back.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Justin Turner
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Gavin Lux, Will Smith
GPP Note: I’ll have interest in anyone that cracks this Dodgers lineup, they are a top stack on this main slate with an implied run total of 6.1 runs against a bad Orioles pitching staff.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, as I said, wait and see approach with Rich Hill on the mound.
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Boston Red Sox (-137) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+127)
This game features two pitchers that are not good to say the least in Chacin and Clay Bucholz. Chacin will likely open and followed by a bullpen by committee, but Bucholz has an era of over five this season, so I will look to get some pieces of these offenses. Both offenses have an implied run total of at least 4.9 runs and I prefer the Sox of the two just because I think their more talented, but they are also more expensive.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: The Red Sox are in that same tier as the Dodgers on the main slate, stack ’em up if you can.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Justin Smoak, Cavan Biggio, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: The Jays are a secondary stack for me here, the Red Sox have not pitched well and this stadium plays well to offenses, so stack them up as a cheaper offense.
Atlanta Braves (-124) @ Philadelphia Phillies (+115)
This game features a matchup of Julio Teheran against Drew Smyly. Teheran has been very good lately going for at least 17 Draftkings points in three straight games. Smyly is the same way, he has scored at least 25 Draftkings points in two straight games so these are two guys that will look to continue their hot pitching but get tough matchups with these offenses. If I were choosing an offense I would definitely take the Braves and think they are a nice secondary stack on this slate.
ATL 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley
GPP Note: The Braves are close to a tier-one stack, but don’t quite make it. They are a secondary stack here for me.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Corey Dickerson
4-star plays: JT Realmuto
GPP Note: I have more respect for Teheran but this is still a spot where you can get some mini-stacks or one-offs.
Washington Nationals (-118) @ Minnesota Twins (+107)
This game should be a fun one as both offenses are extremely good, but features a nice pitching matchup between Patrick Corbin and Kyle Gibson. Both teams have an implied run total of at least 4.7 runs here, so it looks as if Vegas is on the offenses more than the pitchers in this one. Corbin has pitched well as of late but has struggled on the road going for ten less Draftkings points per game on the road than at home this season, while Gibson has been pretty neutral.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Just power one-offs here, I like the pitchers in this game enough to keep me off of these offenses
MIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: Same story here just one-offs, however, this team does have some massive power against lefties so don’t shy away from those right-handed power bats.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-152) @ Texas Rangers (+139)
I wrote-up Brendan McKay in my pitcher’s section and think he makes a lot of sense as a mid-range SP2 option here in Texas. The Rangers will send Kolby Allard to the mound who has been pretty solid as of late. I like Allard here but the Rays offense is just too good for me to want to go with him in Texas where the ball seems to fly.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Nick Solak
GPP Note: I’ll have a good amount of Brendan McKay, this lineup is nothing special on this slate.
TBR 5-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: This lineup scored a bunch of runs last night and I don’t think they’ll be quite that high here, but this offense is good enough to get to Allard here.
Oakland Athletics (+232) @ Houston Astros (-255)
I haven’t touched on Justin Verlander yet, but any time he takes the mound he is an elite play in all formats. He has one of the highest strikeout rates in the league at 34.9%, I don’t need to dig in too deep on why you should play the potential Cy Young award winner. The A’s will send Homer Bailey to the mound who I normally have interest in, but this Astros offense is simply too good.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Khris Davis
GPP Note: For some reason, Khris Davis crushes Verlander with a career 6-19 with 4 home runs. That said, Verlander is an elite play, there is no reason to go too crazy here.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: The Astros will be in that same tier as the Red Sox and Dodgers. They have an implied run total of 5.7 runs here against Homer Bailey and are a top stack on this slate.
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners
Tyler Mahle and Justin Dunn will draw the starts tonight for these teams. Those of you who follow the “Core 4” article know that I have been targeting the Mariners with pitchers over the past two days with Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer, both pitched very well. I don’t mind getting to Tyler Mahle here as a cheap SP2 option against a weak Mariners lineup. Dunn is expected to throw a couple of innings followed by Tommy Milone, I don’t really have a whole lot of interest in Milone or this Reds offense in a big Seattle ballpark.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: I don’t have a ton of interest in this offense, but some elite power options with Aquino and Suarez both crushing lefties.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: The more I think about it, the more I think I’ll get to some Tyler Mahle here, nothing from the Mariners that is particularly interesting to me.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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