Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Gerrit Cole
- Eduardo Rodriguez
- Madison Bumgarner
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Full Count Breakdown:
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals (-162) – Game 1
Blake Parker vs Joe Ross
Phillies will open up with Parker and look to make it a bullpen game. Bullpen games just don’t make sense for me, especially when you are playing a double-header. Ross has struggled in his MLB career against LHBs and the Phillies have a couple of pretty dangerous ones. The Nationals bats are hotter recently so I want exposure to that side for sure.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Adam Haseley
GPP Note: Hitting just .217 over their last 7 games
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Howie Kendrick
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Yan Gomes
GPP Note: 33 runs but just 16 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals (-175) – Game 2
Aaron Nola vs Max Scherzer
This is a pretty nice SP match-up, just wish that PHI was still in the race. Scherzer is as dominant of a pitcher as we have in the game of baseball and his upside is through the roof in ANY match-up. I don’t see myself using much for bats from this game other than one-offs for GPP purposes. Make sure to pay attention to lineups for the double-header as benches are deeper during September.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Hitting just .217 over their last 7 games
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Howie Kendrick, Victor Robles
GPP Note: 33 runs but just 16 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
Minnesota Twins (-230) vs Detroit Tigers
Jake Odorizzi vs Spencer Turnbull
Odorizzi has had some impressive K performances recently and the Twins bats are still banging out HRs at a ridiculous pace. I am going to keep stacking the Twins every day as they approach 300 team HRs on the season. The Tigers are just a rough team to look at these days but they do have a couple of bats who have either hit Odorizzi well or have hit well over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: ISO of .230 over their last 6 games
DET 5-star plays: Victor Reyes
4-star plays: Christin Stewart, Dawel Lugo
GPP Note: Just 13 runs scored over their last 6 games
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds (-125)
Adrian Houser vs Sonny Gray
I really like this SP match-up. The Brewers are battling to clinch a playoff spot but they have struggled a bit as a team vs Sonny Gray. They are also striking out quite a bit over the last week. The Reds offense is scuffling greatly and Houser has some impressive stuff, even though he is going to go just 5 innings or so. Suarez is the one CIN bat that I want exposure to as he has 2 HRs against Houser and he is 2 away from 50 on the season.
MIL 5-star plays: Lorenzo Cain, Keston Hiura
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 with 67 strikeouts over their last 6 games
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Joey Votto
GPP Note: Just 14 runs and an ISO of .107 over their last 5 games
Chicago Cubs (-185) vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Kyle Hendricks vs Mitch Keller
The Cubs are scuffling as their bullpen is not helping them out while a few of their bats are hot at the plate. Keller has been really bad at the MLB level to end the season so I want to stack the Cubs in this spot. The Pirates are struggling greatly and that definitely brings Hendricks into play. His K upside is below-average but he could find himself with a few very easy innings.
CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Jason Heyward
GPP Note: Just 19 runs over their last 6 games
PIT 5-star plays: Adam Frazier
4-star plays: Jose Osuna
GPP Note: Just 1 HR and an ISO of .063 over their last 6 games
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Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays (-135)
Dylan Bundy vs Anthony Kay
This game won a LOT of people money last night and I could see that being the case again tonight. Bundy is always in play as a GPP pitcher but he can be blown up, especially by RHBs. Kay is an impressive rookie who was seemingly blocked with the Mets but has shown some upside with TOR after looking strong in the Futures Game. The problem is that I actually like the Orioles lineup vs LHPs, even if they aren’t loaded with household names.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini, Austin Hays
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: 14 HRs and 31 total extra-base hits over their last 7 games
TOR 5-star plays: Cavan Biggio
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: 16 HRs and an ISO of .239 over their last 7 games
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets (-240)
Sandy Alcantara vs Noah Syndergaard
This game is all about the Mets side for me. Syndergaard should be focused and should be able to attack a Marlins team that has surprised over the last week. The Mets offense is putting the ball in play with authority recently and I expect that to continue here. Excellent GPP stack with a couple of bats being cash viable.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Alfaro, Starlin Castro
GPP Note: 31 extra-base hits and 37 runs over their last 6 games
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: J.D. Davis, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: 12 HRs and an ISO of .227 over their last 6 games
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New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
Masahiro Tanaka vs Yonny Chirinos/Brendan McKay
The Yankees rival the Twins in the power category as they have hit 1 more HR than the Twins in 1 more game played on the season. Tanaka can look extremely impressive or he could get lit up like a Christmas tree. I think this game makes a wonderful game stack option on this slate and Tanaka is a solid GPP option with some pretty big volatility.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Brett Gardner, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: ISO of .247 and 12 HRs over their last 6 games
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: 10 HRs over their last 6 games
Cleveland Indians (-235) vs Chicago White Sox
Mike Clevinger vs Hector Santiago
This game interests me as Clevinger has been dominant all season long but he travels into Chicago to face a White Sox team that is blistering hot at the plate over the last week. The Indians haven’t been hitting a ton of HRs but Santiago just is not a good pitcher at this point. I think a game stack here is super sneaky and offers upside with the expected performance of the Indians with the low-owned, hot hitting, side of the White Sox.
CLE 5-star plays: Carlos Santana, Yasiel Puig
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Just 5 HRs but 35 runs over their last 6 games
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Hitting .358 with an OPS of .942 over their last 5 games
Boston Red Sox (-178) vs Texas Rangers
Eduardo Rodriguez vs Edinson Volquez/Ariel Jurado
Eduardo Rodriguez is in an extremely strong spot as the Rangers struggle something ridiculous against LHPs. I absolutely love the spot for him. The Red Sox bats are starting to wake up a little bit even though I do believe they are sleepwalking to the end of the season. I have no interest in anything Texas Rangers here.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland
4-star plays: Jackie Bradley Jr, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: 78 Strikeouts over their last 7 games
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Danny Santana
GPP Note: 10 HRs over their last 5 games
Atlanta Braves (-145) vs Kansas City Royals
Julio Teheran vs Danny Duffy
The Braves are a team I love to use against LHPs as guys like Albies, Riley, Swanson, and Donaldson have smashed LHPs in their careers. The Royals lack any kind of power upside these days and Teheran should be in a solid spot as long as the ATL lineup is competitive (they clinched). Soler is the one bat that I really want exposure to from the KC side.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Just 15 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
KC 5-star plays: Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Alex Gordon, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: ISO of just .104 over their last 6 games
St Louis Cardinals (-200) vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Jack Flaherty vs Mike Leake
Flaherty has been really impressive during the second half and the D’Backs aren’t anywhere near as scary of an offense without Marte. The Cardinals looked really strong last night at the plate and I can see them knocking Leake around a bit here. Edman and Molina are red-hot at the plate while Goldschmidt hit an HR in his return to ARI last night and Ozuna has dominated against Leake in his career.
STL 5-star plays: Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Yadier Molina, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .217 over their last 7 games
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Josh Rojas
GPP Note: 23 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants (-170)
Jeff Hoffman vs Madison Bumgarner
I really love using Bumgarner when he pitches at home. He has been dominant there his entire career and the Rockies can struggle a TON away from Coors. There are some HRs in the COL lineup in their careers against Bumgarner but this ballpark is so large that HRs are just not a worry of mine tonight.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
GPP Note: 11 HRs and an ISO of .223 over their last 5 games
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Christhian Adames, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Just 3 HRs and an ISO of .090 over their last 6 games
Oakland Athletics (-210) vs Los Angeles Angels
Homer Bailey vs Dillon Peters
Bailey is in a great spot as the Angels lineup has become EXTREMELY weak from top to bottom. Calhoun has 3 of the team’s 4 HRs over the last week. The OAK lineup does a TON of damage against LHPs and should be a great stack or mini-stack option tonight. I just wish guys like Chapman and Davis were swinging it decently at this point.
OAK 5-star plays: Marcus Semien, Mark Canha
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Khris Davis
GPP Note: 19 extra-base hits over their last 5 games
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, David Fletcher
GPP Note: Just 4 HRs and 10 total extra-base hits over their last 6 games
Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) vs San Diego Padres
Rich Hill/Ross Stripling vs Ronald Bolanos
I hate opener situations and I really hate when the LAD do it. They rarely stick to what they are being reported as doing in terms of who follows who, etc. A few of the SD bats have hit Rich Hill really well and it will be interesting to see what the lineup is. The Dodgers need to head up heading into the postseason and tonight is a good night to get started.
LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Gavin Lux
GPP Note: 19 extra-base hits and a team ISO of .194 over their last 5 games
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team average of .181 over their last 6 games
Houston Astros (-450) vs Seattle Mariners
Gerrit Cole vs Justin Dunn/Tommy Milone
There is a chance that Cole strikes out 15 tonight and just absolutely dominates this SEA team. He and the Astros are GIGANTIC road favorites here. The HOU bats are swinging it well, averaging 3 HRs/game over the last week. Dunn can’t seem to throw strikes at the MLB level and it would shock me to see him get 2+ innings in here. Milone has been surprisingly solid for SEA this season but this is NOT the match-up for him to be relied on.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: 15 HRs over their last 5 games
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shed Long
GPP Note: Just a 22% K rate over their last 6 games
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.