Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Sonny Gray – Highest initial KSCORE on our Carnage Report
- Chris Paddack – Second highest initial VKSCORE on our Carnage Report
- Steven Matz – Top overall Carnage rating and third highest initial KSCORE on our Carnage Report
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Full Count Breakdown:
New York Yankees (-210) vs Detroit Tigers
CC Sabathia/Domingo German vs Matthew Boyd
Boyd has given up 36 HRs in 171.1 innings this season and his HRs allowed rate has increased since the start of August. He allowed 14 HRs in 32.2 August innings. Those HR numbers do not bode well when facing a team like the Yankees. They are sitting 2nd in all of baseball in HRs hit on the season. Sabathia is making his return from the IL but is expected to only see a couple of innings and then should give way to German as the long-reliever.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: 15 HRs and 31 total extra-base hits over their last 6 games
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Victor Reyes, Harold Castro
GPP Note: 30 runs over their last 6 games but just 14 extra-base hits
Atlanta Braves (-135) vs Philadelphia Phillies
Dallas Keuchel vs Zach Eflin
This game opened with a total of 10 runs and that makes it very juicy from an offensive standpoint. We saw both teams score 4 runs in the first inning last night and there are some strong BvP numbers in this game. Keuchel is my preferred SP from this game for GPP purposes but I don’t think we need to go there. Game stacks of this one are definitely in play and with a game at Coors Field tonight, we should see it lower owned than it should be.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .237 over the last 6 games
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto, Jean Segura
4-star plays: Scott Kingery, Sean Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .255 and 35 runs over their last 7 games
Los Angeles Dodgers (-175) vs Baltimore Orioles
Ross Stripling/Dustin May vs John Means
I know the Dodgers are popular and strong favorites here but Means has been Baltimore’s best pitcher this season and I just don’t see LA going nuts here to pay off all of their elevated price tags. Using bats as one-offs here makes a ton of sense to me. The Dodgers will send Stripling out for 2-3 innings and follow him with May. That messes with some things here as I don’t want to try and pick on one of them because we don’t know how long they’ll be in and we don’t get to use the SP against a weaker BAL lineup.
LAD 5-star plays: AJ Pollock, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: David Freese, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Hitting just .226 but a team ISO of .220 over their last 5 games
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Mason Williams
GPP Note: Just 18 runs and an ISO of .142 over their last 5 games
Boston Red Sox (-145) vs Toronto Blue Jays
Bobby Poyner/Mike Shawaryn vs Wilmer/FontTrent Thornton
Openers and long-relievers for both teams make this really tricky to figure out. You can always stack BOS as they can hit Thornton but I hate trying to figure out what managers are going to do when an opener is used. I will suggest using some one-offs from TOR as they are cold overall while BOS isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Mitch Moreland, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Just 22 runs over their last 7 games, 70 extra-base hits in 17 games against TOR this season
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez, Reese McGuire
GPP Note: Hitting just .194 with 14 runs scored over their last 5 games
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets (-115)
Robbie Ray vs Steven Matz
The game opened with a total of 8.5 runs and I am torn. Both SPs have really strong ceilings in this spot but they also have the ability to get blown up. Matz has been really impressive pitching at home this season but was blown up in his only start against ARI earlier this season. Ray has been more impressive overall on the road but his K rate and fantasy ppg go down on the road. Both teams have bats that do well and have done extremely well against LHPs this season and in their careers.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar
4-star plays: Nick Ahmed, Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Just 19 runs and an average of .210 over the last 6 games
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, JD Davis
4-star plays: Robinson Cano, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Just 26 runs and 8 HRs over the last 6 games
Milwaukee Brewers (-142) vs Miami Marlins
Zach Davies vs Pablo Lopez
The Brewers coming off of horrendous news are in an interesting spot. They lost Yelich for the season last night and now they are tasked with trying to remain in the race without last year’s MVP. Who is going to step up to carry this team? Normally I would stack them up in a spot to see how they bounce back but I just don’t think this is the spot. The ballpark is gigantic and the team is struggling. This game is going to end up being littered with one-offs for me.
MIL 5-star plays: Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Eric Thames, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 over their last 6 games
MIA 5-star plays: Garrett Cooper
4-star plays: Starlin Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .127 over their last 7 games
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Washington Nationals (-140) vs Minnesota Twins
Stephen Strasburg vs Martin Perez
Strasburgh has been reverse splits and worse on the road this season so that puts MIN in play as a sneaky dart throw stack with a couple of guys being in play as one-offs. We know the kind of power that the Twins lineup has and the ownership is going to be non-existent going up against Strasburg. Definitely volatility to that but I like to take shots in GPPs. The Nationals are in an excellent spot as this game has a total of 10 runs and Perez can be blown up.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Brian Dozier
GPP Note: Hitting .233 with 17 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: Just 18 runs and an ISO of .131 over their last 6 games
Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers
Andrew Kittredge/Austin Pruitt vs Ariel Jurado
Both teams could end up using an opener here as the Rangers have done so in front of Jurado at times this season. I have zero interest in the pitchers here as the offenses are the ones in the better spots. The game does not have a total set as of this morning but being in TEX it should be around 9.5. Meadows is on an absolute tear right now and I will continue to ride/lock him into my core.
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 and 22 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Rougned Odor
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .155 over their last 6 games
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox (-160)
Glenn Sparkman vs Reynaldo Lopez
This game intrigues me yet again (I was all about this match-up last night). This time I also like Lopez to go along with both offenses. The White Sox offense is really centered around the 4 guys I have listed below but they are a dangerous group. KC has a few guys that can contribute but I really like the history against Lopez of the guys I have below. Lopez has the random troll game ability and this could be one of those sneaky spots for him to win somebody a GPP.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier
4-star plays: Jorge Soler (near 5-star, strong BvP)
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .137 over the last 6 games
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .221 with 26 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros (-155)
Brett Anderson vs Jose Urquidy
The A’s returned the favor to the Astros as they followed up their ass-kicking Monday night by doing the absolute ass-kicking last night. Both teams’ numbers are going to be skewed over the last few days but both are in interesting spots again tonight. It is really tough to not like both offenses at this point as the A’s could get hot while the Astros have some solid BvP vs Anderson in their careers. I definitely have zero interest in the SPs here.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Seth Brown
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: 52 runs and an ISO of .224 over their last 7 games
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick
GPP Note: 63 runs scored over their last 6 games with an ISO of .341
St Louis Cardinals (-140) vs Colorado Rockies
Dakota Hudson vs Antonio Senzatela
Coors Field really let us down last night and I am torn on what it does to us tonight. The game has a total of 13.5 runs but Hudson has such extreme groundballs, especially to RHBs, that I can see it ending up going under again tonight. I suggest doing 1 of 2 things tonight with this game, either going over the field in ownership or under the field. If the game goes off and you are over the field, you have a chance to out Coors the Coors stackers and if it duds again and you are under the field, you gain a huge advantage. As of right now, I plan on going under the field and I will have a share or two of Hudson.
STL 5-star plays: Kolten Wong, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Just 37 strikeouts as a team over their last 6 games
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Daniel Murphy
GPP Note: Just 2 HRs and a team ISO of .045 over their last 5 games
Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants (-108)
Dario Agrazal vs Logan Webb
I can’t believe I am going to say this but I am on the Giants side tonight. I have a soft spot for Logan Webb and his ability in a large ballpark and the offense gets to take on reverse splits SP. The Giants have a few RHBs that are strong enough to support a stack or mini-stack should things align when the lineups get posted. The game has a total of just 8 runs so we do not need to go overboard here and most likely just use one-offs in our builds.
PIT 5-star plays: Adam Frazier
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team strikeout rate of just 21% over the last 7 games
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Pillar, Mauricio Dubon
GPP Note: Just 14 extra-base hits and an ISO of .101 over their last 7 games
Cleveland Indians vs Los Angeles Angels
Adam Plutko vs Dillon Peters
This game has a total of 9.5 runs and that intrigues me. Hear me out here, normally games in LA are played later but the start time of this game is 2 hours before normal first pitch. Over the last few years, there have been talks about the marine-layer in California having an effect on flyballs late at night. I personally think that the earlier start time is going to help both offenses here and I will definitely be game stacking in this spot.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Yasiel Puig
GPP Note: 67 Strikeouts over their last 7 games (just 21 extra-base hits)
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Just 17 extra-base hits over their last 7 games
Chicago Cubs (EVEN) vs San Diego Padres
Cole Hamels vs Chris Paddack
This game is about the pitching with some one-off, power bats for me. The total is sitting at 8 runs as of this morning with it being a pick’em game. We saw a lot of action last night, in a spot that I wasn’t expecting it. Paddack has been a favorite of mine all season long due to his big-time K ability. Hamels gets my interest because the Padres are struggling overall lately (last night not included). Over the last week, the Cubs have nearly triple the ISO that the Padres do and their ISO is greater than the Padres batting average.
CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Jason Heyward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .231 over the last 6 games
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team average of .208 with an ISO of .086 over their last 6 games
Cincinnati Reds (-135) vs Seattle Mariners
Sonny Gray vs Marco Gonzales
The Reds let me down last night as I was very much all over them. I will be going back to them tonight against another LHP. Tonight I will make sure to have exposure to Gonzales as a hedge. Gray is going to find himself at or near the top of my SP rankings for tonight’s slate. He has been extremely impressive with CIN this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Jose Iglesias, Alex Blandino
GPP Note: Just 24 runs and 20 extra-base hits over the last 6 games
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dee Gordon, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Hitting just .161 as a team over their last 5 games
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.