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Chalk Talk – A Deep Dive into Gameweek 7 EPL DFS for Fanduel & Draftkings

Welcome to another week of EPL DFS. The DFS Army murdered last week’s slate. Army helmets were everywhere above the cash line. We will look to push for it again this week. As always, we’ll go deep into the game. We’ll be challenging what we see on the screen and what we hear from the announcers. Before we take the pitch, we will be talking tactics. This is Chalk Talk.

This article will look different than the old “Holding the Midfield” article from last season. While it will have the same premise, this year brings added features, including some deep dive stats to further drive home some guys I’m looking at ahead of the impending gameweek. The important thing to remember when using this article is that these guys I will mention are not necessarily to be used in a vacuum. Your lineups should tell a story. It’s a tale of game scripts. Remember to build your core and to lock in your value. Also, your weekly research should begin by reading “The Starting XI” by @theDFSniper.

Crystal Palace v Norwich

There has been a concerted effort by Crystal Palace to defend well at home and try to get that good result. Now I’m not really saying they are an awesomely defensive squad but I do want to impress just how much they focus on their defense. Crystal palace matches have involved 11 goals through 6 matches. That’s not just their goals. That’s the total goal tally for Crystal Palace and their opponents. It’s also the lowest tally in the league. At home, Palace fans have seen only 3 goals scored through 3 matches. Again, that’s the total tally. Norwich has scored just once on the road. I don’t see this game getting out of hand.

To be clear, the model likes Crystal Palace to win. I am not concerned too much with outfield players, although Teemu Pukki and Jordan Ayew are tied for the 12th best scoring odds. Of the two, I like Ayew more, but I am most interested in Guaita. He is worth looks in GPP in a low scoring total and this could be the lowest scoring match of the day.

Bournemouth v West Ham

This is my favorite game on the slate. Bournemouth knows they can’t defend, so they love to give their fans a show. They figure if they can overwhelm their opponents with a relentless attack they can bag points. It works as a strategy. Last season, Bournemouth netted 56 goals, which was the 7th best in the league. 30 of those 56 came at home. They haven’t had a chance to really get going due to their home schedule, 2 of which saw ties vs sheffield and man city.

West Ham is not a staunch defense, especially on the road. They are a tenacious offense, however. The goals are there in this one and I hope their historical trend of an average to below average score is where people tend to fall. I have this game as a coin flip, slightly to the over, on 4.5 goals. I probably shade to the under, because that’s a high total to hit, but I put that onus on Bournemouth. Their team total is a little hard to pin down.

Overall I’m on the forwards here. Callum Wilson continues to return and Sebastian Haller has settled into premier league life nicely. As far as injuries are concerned, Bournemouth return Ryan Fraser, who is a decent cash play, and the Hammers lose Lanzini. Set piece duty should fall to Felipe Anderson. Before I move off this game, let me drop a stack I like. Haller and, likely starter, Pablo Fornals (as long as Lanzini is, indeed, out) had struck up quite the accord in the preseason.

The Fanduel Exclusive

City is,yet again, in the game of the week. Even though they are on the road, they should perform just fine as I think they will be determined, although not as pissed as last week, to try and make up ground on Liverpool. I will reserve them as mostly a GPP play. There are 7 games on the slate and I don’t see a need to get more than 1 piece in cash. In GPP, they are one of my top 2 teams on the slate.

Everton is susceptible to forwards and it could come from a variety of places. The top 3 all have good chances to score. That’s likely to be (from left to right) Raheem Sterling, Sergio Aguero, and Bernardo Silva. Aguero could be pulled early with Champions League on the very near horizon. If they are managing Ben Mendy’s minutes, then I could see the other 2 playing 90. With the way City have played, a clean sheet is fairly unlikely. Richarlison would be my shout on the other side but I don’t really feel the need there with 7 games and cheap options at 10 a.m.

Introducing the Model

I will include the model link below. It’s a bit too large to add to this article. Do not take the numbers as gospel without reading the notes. The model does not include player ratings so the injuries need to be included subjectively. One day I hope to have the time to include player ratings so we have up-to-date information and we can just push and go. That day is not today.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ywrwy8m1Yop5vV4NkvO84WKMAkFipM32YW2HJOkfo1s/edit?usp=sharing

Model Notes

The biggest thing to note is the delta column. The biggest changes denote value, whether it be under or over. When it comes to the draw, history says draws happen about 26% of the time in the premier league. Values above that warrant consideration, especially when you see a 6% or more increase in the odds and the model number is greater than 26%. I’m not saying it’s a done deal but I’m saying its possible. Beyond that, I move with the odds unless I have reason not to. On the main slate, I have no major reason to not believe the numbers. I will say that Brighton gets a bit of a boost as the numbers don’t largely include Neal Maupay, as he was mostly a sub until he started. He is a big boost to the offense and certainly in play tomorrow.

That’s it for this week. I am @TreyJ989 in the coaching channels and on Twitter. Feel free to ask me questions. Let’s enjoy the ride.