Welcome to another week of EPL DFS. Thanks for joining me as we go deep into the game. We will be challenging what we see on the screen and what we hear from the announcers. Before we take the pitch, we will be talking tactics. This is Chalk Talk.
This article will look different than the old “Holding the Midfield” article from last season. While it will have the same premise, this year brings added features, including some deep dive stats to further drive home some guys I’m looking at ahead of the impending gameweek. The important thing to remember when using this article is that these guys I will mention are not necessarily to be used in a vacuum. Your lineups should tell a story. It’s a tale of game scripts. Remember to build your core and to lock in your value. Also, your weekly research should begin by reading “The Starting XI” by @theDFSniper.
Sheffield United v Southampton
Normally, I reserve these precious words for the games with the best fantasy goodness. Well, this is going to be unorthodox, as I don’t see a ton of fantasy goodness here. If I had to describe this match in one word, I would say… probing. My take on this match is we see a lot of setup play and a lot of solid defensive work done on both sides. We should see plenty of clearances and tackles and interceptions. I think this will be the lowest scoring match of the slate.
On either site, I think your best bets are the keepers. These are GPP plays but with some high upside to pivot off the chalk. On Fanduel, you can use John Egan in GPP, but if I am going to play a CB I would seriously think about stacking him with his keeper. There is some clean sheet upside in this match. My main plays would be the keepers, though.
Brighton v Burnley
This could be one of the more entertaining matches of the day, on paper. The numbers say that it could be higher scoring than the next match I will cover, but there are a few key injuries that bear watching. Trossard is out until mid-october with a groin injury. JBG is facing a late fitness test. If he can’t go, Brady probably can step in. Barnes is also facing a late fitness test. Jay Rodriguez looks to be his understudy. Overall, I like Burnley’s situation better. Brighton has an uphill battle, knowing that if they don’t play their best, the likelihood of staying in the premier league is low. Trossard is a big loss.
Brighton will rely on Glenn Murray and Neil Maupay to lead the charge. When Burnleyhave traveled, they have conceded to forwards. Murray has not really shot the ball this season, so we really want to see Maupay get the nod. I think it is likely we see a lone forward with those two being the only real first team forwards. The value is greater. on the other side of the ball, though. I think Dwight McNeil will be healthy enough to play (he is dinged up, too) and he makes a nice stack partner with a forward. McNeil has the highest xA of anyone on the squad (.13 xA/90). The more common stack will be JBG with a forward. I like going the other way.
Tottenham v Crystal Palace
The drama of the transfer season is over. Spurs fans (and owners) can breathe a sigh of relief. What we saw in the first month of the season was that Tottenham really needs Eriksen. They can’t seem to get anything going without him but now they know that they will have him through the remainder of 2019. Eriksen is only part of the equation. Spurs need to hope that Tanguy Ndombele passes his late fitness test. With many of their options for right back out and Alderwiereld and Vertonghen playing 180 mins over the break, he is crucial in protecting their back line. If he isn’t ready to go, I will likely downgrade my exposures to the spurs offense.
The Fanduel Exclusive
This section is for me to muse about the hammer match. This week Manchester City travels to Norwich for the game of the week. Draftkings has removed this match from the main slate. Draftkings players can skip ahead but come back if you are playing the showdown midday.
Non-EPL Fixtures Loom Large
Norwich potentially has an issue to deal with. The international break was not kind to them injury-wise and there are a few situations to monitor. The biggest is who is going to play on their back line. Godfrey made it out unscathed but not Hanley, Zimmerman or Aarons. Of the three, Hanley’s looks the least serious and he could give it a go. That would still leave a hole at right back. If Hanley can’t start, there is potential to move Jamal Lewis inside and then both fullbacks would need to be replaced.
City return their stars just in time to put Champions League football in the back of their minds. The Pep merry-go-round could be in full effect. Jesus figures to be healthy enough to play, but is he healthy enough to start? I think we see Aguero start but Jesus should get some run to manage Kun’s minutes ahead of a grinding match with Shakhtar Donetsk midweek. Then there is the matter of the starting right forward. Bernardo Silva seems to have won the job over Mahrez but that’s not to say Silva doesn’t get rested ahead of this match. This also brings up a good question about their field general, Kevin De Bruyne. He is playing fantastic and, coming off 180 mins over the break, is due rest at some point. History suggests they will continue to ride him for now but you never know. This game could be well in hand after an hour and then we could see him come off.
The Plays are the Plays
I think there is a real advantage to attacking Norwich from the left side. To that end I think Raheem Sterling and David Silva are in play. Sergio Aguero and Kevin De Bruyne are playable but I think at least one of them gets rested early in preparation of their trip midweek. I expect David Silva to play 90. I don’t see a need to get into the Norwich attack on the main slate, but Godfrey is the safest norwich defender to play.
Shooters Shoot
So, we’ve talked about the teams but let’s look at specific players. Below is a table that shows the top 19 players on the slate who have logged at least 180 minutes played and an evaluation of the number of shots they take per 90 minutes played.
| Name | Team | Shots | Shots – Inside Box | shots/90 | SIB/90 | xG/90 | xA/90 |
| Rashford | MUN | 16 | 9 | 4.06 | 2.26 | 0.75 | 0.09 |
| Barnes (Ashley) | BUR | 15 | 11 | 4.15 | 2.76 | 0.51 | 0.01 |
| Pukki | NOR | 14 | 13 | 3.57 | 3.26 | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| Mount | CHE | 14 | 5 | 3.51 | 1.25 | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| Maddison | LEI | 13 | 6 | 3.29 | 1.50 | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| Aguero | MCI | 13 | 10 | 4.38 | 2.51 | 0.69 | 0.09 |
| Kane | TOT | 13 | 9 | 3.25 | 2.26 | 0.48 | 0.07 |
| De Bruyne | MCI | 12 | 7 | 3.29 | 1.75 | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Sterling (Raheem) | MCI | 12 | 12 | 3.00 | 3.01 | 0.92 | 0.17 |
| Tielemans | LEI | 11 | 3 | 2.76 | 0.75 | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| James (Daniel) | MUN | 11 | 9 | 3.47 | 2.26 | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| Barkley | CHE | 11 | 3 | 4.76 | 0.75 | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Abraham | CHE | 11 | 9 | 3.90 | 2.26 | 0.42 | 0.09 |
| Raúl Jiménez | WOL | 10 | 8 | 2.51 | 2.01 | 0.45 | 0.08 |
| Eriksen | TOT | 9 | 1 | 3.48 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.12 |
| Lucas Moura | TOT | 9 | 6 | 3.79 | 1.50 | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| Trossard | BHA | 8 | 6 | 2.89 | 1.50 | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| Martial | MUN | 8 | 5 | 2.67 | 1.25 | 0.27 | 0.08 |
| Maupay | BHA | 8 | 8 | 3.81 | 2.01 | 0.33 | 0.04 |
Now, let’s take a look at the top 19 in xG.
| Name | Team | Shots | Shots – Inside Box | shots/90 | SIB/90 | xG/90 | xA/90 |
| Sterling (Raheem) | MCI | 12 | 12 | 3.00 | 3.01 | 0.92 | 0.17 |
| Rashford | MUN | 16 | 9 | 4.06 | 2.26 | 0.75 | 0.09 |
| Aguero | MCI | 13 | 10 | 4.38 | 2.51 | 0.69 | 0.09 |
| Barnes (Ashley) | BUR | 15 | 11 | 4.15 | 2.76 | 0.51 | 0.01 |
| Kane | TOT | 13 | 9 | 3.25 | 2.26 | 0.48 | 0.07 |
| Cantwell | NOR | 4 | 3 | 1.03 | 0.75 | 0.46 | 0.04 |
| Raúl Jiménez | WOL | 10 | 8 | 2.51 | 2.01 | 0.45 | 0.08 |
| Abraham | CHE | 11 | 9 | 3.90 | 2.26 | 0.42 | 0.09 |
| Pukki | NOR | 14 | 13 | 3.57 | 3.26 | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| Adams | SOU | 7 | 6 | 2.23 | 1.50 | 0.38 | 0.01 |
| Maupay | BHA | 8 | 8 | 3.81 | 2.01 | 0.33 | 0.04 |
| Robinson | SHU | 8 | 5 | 2.48 | 1.25 | 0.32 | 0.02 |
| Maddison | LEI | 13 | 6 | 3.29 | 1.50 | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| Redmond | SOU | 7 | 4 | 2.33 | 1.00 | 0.31 | 0.03 |
| Pogba | MUN | 7 | 5 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| Trossard | BHA | 8 | 6 | 2.89 | 1.50 | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| Martial | MUN | 8 | 5 | 2.67 | 1.25 | 0.27 | 0.08 |
| Ings | SOU | 7 | 4 | 2.49 | 1.00 | 0.26 | 0.01 |
| McGoldrick | SHU | 4 | 2 | 1.55 | 0.50 | 0.26 | 0.01 |
And, for fun, let’s take a peek at the top players in terms of shots in the box/90.
| Name | Team | Shots | Shots – Inside Box | shots/90 | SIB/90 | xG/90 | xA/90 |
| Pukki | NOR | 14 | 13 | 3.57 | 3.26 | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| Sterling (Raheem) | MCI | 12 | 12 | 3.00 | 3.01 | 0.92 | 0.17 |
| Barnes (Ashley) | BUR | 15 | 11 | 4.15 | 2.76 | 0.51 | 0.01 |
| Aguero | MCI | 13 | 10 | 4.38 | 2.51 | 0.69 | 0.09 |
| Rashford | MUN | 16 | 9 | 4.06 | 2.26 | 0.75 | 0.09 |
| Kane | TOT | 13 | 9 | 3.25 | 2.26 | 0.48 | 0.07 |
| Abraham | CHE | 11 | 9 | 3.90 | 2.26 | 0.42 | 0.09 |
| James (Daniel) | MUN | 11 | 9 | 3.47 | 2.26 | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| Raúl Jiménez | WOL | 10 | 8 | 2.51 | 2.01 | 0.45 | 0.08 |
| Maupay | BHA | 8 | 8 | 3.81 | 2.01 | 0.33 | 0.04 |
| De Bruyne | MCI | 12 | 7 | 3.29 | 1.75 | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Adams | SOU | 7 | 6 | 2.23 | 1.50 | 0.38 | 0.01 |
| Maddison | LEI | 13 | 6 | 3.29 | 1.50 | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| Trossard | BHA | 8 | 6 | 2.89 | 1.50 | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| Lucas Moura | TOT | 9 | 6 | 3.79 | 1.50 | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| Zaha | CRY | 6 | 6 | 1.83 | 1.50 | 0.23 | 0.06 |
| Robinson | SHU | 8 | 5 | 2.48 | 1.25 | 0.32 | 0.02 |
| Pogba | MUN | 7 | 5 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| Martial | MUN | 8 | 5 | 2.67 | 1.25 | 0.27 | 0.08 |
Who do these lists have in common?
- Ashley Barnes
- Raheem Sterling
- Sergio Aguero
- Teemu Pukki
- Harry Kane
- James Maddison
- Marcus Rashford
- Tammy Abraham
- Roberto Firmino
- Neil Maupay
- Raul Jimenez
- Anthony Martial
- Leandro Trossard
Those 13 players appear on all 3 lists, the last 2 of which are injured.
Others make it twice and some only once. I chose these stats because they provide you a tangible view on just how effective a player has been in the final third, outside of the results. Obviously there are a lot of forwards on the list but James Maddison sticks out. With a banged up Aaron Wan-bissaka (if he plays), Maddison could provide some trouble down the left flank.
The first chart I would look at is the 2nd one highlighting the xG numbers. For those who are unaware, xG stands for Expected Goals. There is an equation that looks at the quality of shot taken and turns it into a percent chance to score off of it. Its important to note that xG does not factor in goals scored. The result is the shot, so when you see a guy who has a high xG and he scored a brace last match, the brace meant nothing of the quality.
One thing I notice on this list is the number of southampton players. They don’t have a high rate of shots in the box compared to others but have a high xG. This says they find some space and shoot from distance. These should be easier saves for Dean Henderson. This makes me want to increase my exposure to him.
Each week I will be highlighting some players and highlighting certain stats that I find quite interesting. I hope you found this as informative as I have.
I am @TreyJ989 in the coaching channels and on Twitter. Feel free to ask me questions. Let’s enjoy the ride.