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BigMarley3’s UFC Vancouver DraftKings Breakdown

BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown

 

Event – UFC on ESPN+ 16                                           Location – Vancouver, Canada

 

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Canada. DraftKings has some awesome contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize. I do plan on going lighter than usual on this card though, so I might make 10 or less lineups this week. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

 

A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.

 

With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:

 

Austin Hubbard $8,800 vs Kyle Prepolec $7,400

Austin Hubbard

Age: 27

Height: 5’10

Weight: 155

Reach: 72”

Gym: Elevation Fight Team

From: Colorado

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 149

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -135

 

Austin Hubbard suffered a setback in his UFC debut. It wasn’t a bad performance, but he lost a decision to Davi Ramos. Hubbard is a solid athlete with good striking, & very good movement. He uses a lot of false starts, fakes & feints, along with stance switching. Hubbard is a counter striker, but he’s excellent at going forward, cutting off the cage, and staying in his opponent’s face. He has a fast jab & a nice one-two. He will feint to create openings for his straight-right hand. He has pretty solid in & out movement. He likes to leap into a left hook. He will throw a straight-right to a left hook to the body. He also will throw very nice left hooks to the body to left hooks to the head combinations. He likes to throw front leg, round kicks to the body. He will mix in spinning backfists & spinning back kicks to the body. He can be low output & tends to wait for opponents to strike to counter. He will stand in front of opponents at times & is heavy on his lead leg. He can also be hit by overhands & straight punches.

Hubbard is a pretty decent wrestler. He does do a good job of using his punches to create entries into singles, doubles, and has pretty good back takes. When fighters pressure him he tends to be hittable & wants to shoot takedowns. He can get shucked off the back & I have seen opponents take him out with well-timed body locks. In his last match, he had his back taken & was in a fully sunk in rear naked choke & got extremely lucky. The referee mistook the 10 second clapper for the bell & jumped in when his opponent very well could have finished the fight. He has been submitted one time. He has 3 career submissions.

 

Kyle Prepolec

Age: 30

Height: 5’9

Weight: 155

Reach: 70”

Gym: Maximum Training Centre

From: Canada

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 181

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +115

 

Kyle Prepolec will also be looking for his first UFC win after tasting defeat in his UFC debut. Prepolec was up a weight class & on very short notice vs Nordine Taleb. Taleb was able to largely dominate him en route to a decision win. Now at his weight class we should see more from Prepolec. Prepolec is a forward, pressure fighter. He has a solid jab. He really uses his lead hand a lot. He throws a lot of left hooks. He has a nice straight-right hand with solid power on it. He will also throw heavy uppercuts. He is diligent with his body attack. He will throw big hooks & straight punches to the body. He will throw solid head kicks as well. He will throw extended combinations when he backs opponents against the cage with hooks & uppercuts as well as attacking the body. He is a bit crazy with his attack & leaves his chin in the air wide open to be countered. He tends to stand right in front of opponents when he throws offense & doesn’t move his head much. He will attack with spinning backfists and has a spinning backfist knockout on his record. He has solid lateral movement, but he can be backed up towards the cage. He isn’t very high volume & it makes fights closer than they need to be. Prepolec has 7 KO/TKO’s, but mostly due to body attacks. He has a strong chin & has never been finished by strikes. He will eat shots to give his own.

Prepolec will try to mix it up at times although he is predominately a striker. He will shoot doubles when he backs opponents to the cage & works fast on top. He likes to get the back or mount & finish the fight with a barrage of G&P.  His takedown defense is very questionable to me. When he fought Cody Pfister, he was taken down with some extremely sloppy shots. Pfister wasn’t setting his takedowns up at all, and just diving for the legs. Even still he was able to get several double legs & body locks. If someone can set takedowns up with punches & blend their techniques together, I feel they will be able to take Prepolec down at will. Prepolec does look pretty strong & can reverse position with heavy hips at times. When he took top position vs Phister, he made no attempts to pass guard & didn’t throw much volume and was just focused on controlling him. When he does get taken down, he tries to stand up by giving his back and has had it taken multiple times. He has been submitted twice early on in his career, once against Kevin Lee. Prepolec has two submissions himself.

 

I see Hubbard being the better overall fighter here. I think he can win this fight on the feet and I think he is more likely to wrestle as well. These fights are in Canada though and Prepolec is the Canadian. If this fight is close I wouldn’t be shocked to see Prepolec get the nod, but I see Hubbard doing enough to get the job done and I think he could win all 3-rounds.

On DraftKings, Prepolec is actually my preferred play. DK priced him down at $7.4k and he is the home guy here. I think this will be a fairly close fight and if he can steal even a decision win at that price then it could do the trick. I don’t see either of these guys scoring highly though without a finish, so I don’t care too much for Hubbard at $8.8k. The line for this fight to go to decision is -260 and I agree with that being the case. This is going to be a dog or pass for me on DraftKings in all formats and if this wasn’t the first fight of the card I would probably just full fade Prepolec as well.

Winner –  Austin Hubbard via Unanimous Decision

 

Louis Smolka $9,200 vs Ryan MacDonald $7,000

Louis Smolka

Age: 28

Height: 5’9

Weight: 135

Reach: 68.5”

Gym: Team Oyama

From: Hawaii

UFC Record: 6-6

Fight Matrix: 166

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -225

 

Louis Smolka will be looking to improve his record to 2-1 in his second UFC stint. He returned to the UFC late last year with a submission win over Su Mudaerji but was subsequently submitted by Matt Schnell his last time out. He has decided to stay up at 135 lbs & is taking on Ryan MacDonald. Smolka is a pressure fighter on the feet and likes to walk down opponents. He likes to throw a check left hook, leg and body kicks. He will throw a jab, straight-right hand. He will throw front kicks to the body, and then try to land a right hook over the top. He has good head kicks. He will throw a lot of straight-right hands. He is slow with his strikes, and fighters are able to see his punches coming and slip them. He doesn’t have great defense, he will just raise his guard, and stand flat footed. He is tough and has a good chin. He will continue to press forward even after he is dropped or bloodied. Smolka isn’t a huge KO threat on the feet, but he had 6 KO/TKO finishes. He has never been finished with strikes himself.

Smolka is a good BJJ practitioner. He is tall and long for the division and tries to use his length to get body locks, trip takedowns and will shoot single legs. He did a great job of getting in on the single against Su Mudaerji. He was able to get good timing on a double leg, drove his opponent to the cage & changed it to a single and got him down. Smolka does a good job of using his length in opponent’s guards to posture up and land hard punches. He is good at throwing the legs to the side & moving to side control. He looks to be worried more about control now than he did previously. He is dangerous with submissions, and very good in scrambles. In the past, he used to go for a lot of high risk submission attempts & be in scramble fest fights. He now in his last few matches, is worried more about control & G&P before looking for submissions. He took a beating against Kyle Estrada, was able to survive, get a takedown in round two and rain down G&P from mount. He severely hurt Estrada and had a great amount of volume. The fight was stopped between rounds. He also had some great ground & pound against Mudaerji and a slick back take. In his last fight against Matt Schnell, he was caught in a triangle & submitted while in top position. He has 7 submissions and has been submitted twice.

 

Ryan MacDonald

Age: 26

Height: 5’11

Weight: 135

Reach: 71”

Gym: Rose Combat Sports

From: Nebraska

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 273

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +185

 

Ryan MacDonald was bounced from the ranks of the unbeaten in his UFC debut. He had an overall putrid performance, showing very little in a decision loss to Chris Gutierrez. He was totally outclassed and needs to prove he belongs in the UFC vs Smolka. Macdonald’s striking offensively isn’t bad. He is a long fighter & likes to stick and move. He has good fluidity with his hand combinations, and nice kicks. He has a nice jab, and solid one-twos. He will throw a double jab that’s very accurate. He also likes to end combinations with leg kicks or head kicks. He will throw a double jab to a head kick combination. He has a nice left hook. He will throw nice front kicks to the body & head. He likes to throw tricky elbows. He will throw a jab, right elbow combination or fake a takedown & throw up elbows.  The problem with Macdonald’s striking is he lacks the power to make opponents respect him & doesn’t move his head at all. He stands very tall & fighters are able to find his chin with overhands & hooks almost at will. He is also very hittable to the body. MacDonald definitely has great cardio, because I have seen him dropped badly, only to quickly recover & put the pressure back on. MacDonald does have solid forward pressure & likes to control the center. He doesn’t use a lot of movement & is right in front of opponents usually. In his last fight, he really struggled with the feints & distance control of Chris Gutierrez. Gutierrez was able to chop down the legs of MacDonald which really hindered his game. He had a ton of trouble even landing & basically was just a punching bag for 3 rounds. MacDonald is definitely tough & won’t look for a way out. He has never been finished. He doesn’t have big power with just one TKO victory in his career.

Ryan MacDonald is an above average grappler. He doesn’t have great hands, so when opponents get on the inside he likes to clinch up. He is good at using the clinch to push opponents to the cage & will then attack with single legs. He will get high crotch slam takedowns, along with regular singles. He will also transition to doubles or body locks if he can’t get the single. On top, MacDonald doesn’t use posture the best when in full guard. Opponents are able to use a high guard and put him in triangles. He does a good job of getting out of them & passing the legs to side control. In side control he will attack with some short elbows and likes to take the back. He has three rear naked choke victories. In his last win he had a nice high elbow guillotine finish. I think that is something he needs to look for in this matchup in grappling situations. MacDonald is going to need to stay long on the feet & try to use his superior hand speed & technical skills. I feel he has an advantage in terms of fluidity & his reach could help him time Smolka as he gets inside. I think in the grappling MacDonald can hold his own as well. I think his length will give Smolka some problems. It’s the first fighter Smolka has ever fought who is taller than him.

 

I like Smolka here. I think he is the better overall fighter and has more ways to win. I think we see him win the range battle on the feet and I think his grappling will be too much for Macdonald.  If Smolka finishes this fight I think it would likely be from a submission, but I expect to see a good all-around performance from Smolka here and I think he gets a clear 30-27 victory.

I am interested in both sides of this fight but more so the Smolka side. Smolka does allow his opponents to score a lot of points when they win, so for that reason alone I am not against adding MacDonald to my 20-team player pool. I won’t be making more than that this week personally, but I will probably need at least 10 lineups for him to make the cut. Smolka prefers to grapple most of the time and he is ok with accepting takedowns and trying to get a reversal to top control. I think he will be looking to grapple here as well and he could have lots of advanced positions and a finish. I think he is playable in all formats, but I am not sure how heavy I want to go on him. He is priced high enough that he has to be one of the highest scorers to be on the optimal lineup and I am not confident that happens. He will make my player pool with even 10 or less lineups, but I think he is a decent cash game option as well.

Winner – Louis Smolka via Unanimous Decision

 

Jordan Griffin $8,700 vs Chas Skelly $7,500

Jordan Griffin

Age: 29

Height: 5’10

Weight: 145

Reach: 74.5”

Gym: Roufusport MMA

From: Wisconsin

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 131

Last Fought: 9 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -140

 

Jordan Griffin vs Chas Skelly was already scheduled earlier this year. Skelly had to pull out with an injury, but it has been rebooked pretty quickly. Jordan Griffin is still waiting for the chance to bounce back from his loss in his UFC debut. He was scheduled to fight Chas Skelly & then Vince Murdock in June, but both fighters pulled out & he was left without an opponent. This will be Griffins’ first fight in 2019. Griffin is a southpaw & a good distance striker. Griffin is a fighter who likes to use a lot of lateral movement on the outside & then explode in with combinations. He has a decent jab & a good, straight-left hand. He will throw one-twos. He also has a nice jab, overhand left. He is very aggressive & quick at closing the distance. When he can back opponents up against the cage, he will throw wide hooks in combination to close off his opponents exits. In round 3, if he feels the fight is close or opponents are fading, he will put the pressure on & trade. He has nice, short hooks & uppercuts that are powerful. He has dangerous kicks. He will throw a one-two to a rear leg, body or head kick. If fighters can time his blitzes, they can duck under & get easy takedowns. Griffin has good power & 5 career KO/TKO’s. He has a good chin & is a wild man. He has been KO/TKO’d one time.

Griffin is a solid grappler. He has very explosive double leg takedowns. He will get big slams. He has solid body locks. He can shoot from too far out at times. His takedown defense isn’t great. His style allows wrestlers with well-timed shots to be able to duck under & get takedowns. He is very hard to hold down & has good get-ups. He’s excellent at creating scrambles or jumping on submissions. He has very good front chokes he will use to counter takedown attempts & has a nice guillotine from his guard. He will use the chokes to roll to top position. He has a very nice anaconda choke. He is super aggressive on the ground also. He will jump on rear naked chokes with no hooks in & has an excellent squeeze. He will rain down brutal ground & pound. His reach allows him to stand up over his opponents in their guards & land big punches.  His aggressiveness going for chokes can get him in trouble. He will go for flying guillotines & end up on his back. He also can hold onto chokes too long & allow opponents to transition to dominant positions. He gives up mount & the back pretty easily. He is calm in those positions & will move on the bottom to avoid huge damage and submissions but loses rounds. His takedown defense is poor & he was taken down multiple times per round by Dan Ige. He will never break & fights until the end. He is the type of fighter to be losing 2 rounds to 0 and come back & get the finish in round 3. In Griffins last match, he was able to scramble with a Jiu-Jitsu black belt & won his fair share of them. Griffin was able to reverse Ige in round 2 and land some nasty ground & pound. In round 3 it was back & forth as well, and Ige won a close decision. Griffin has 8 career submission & has been submitted twice himself. I feel Griffin should strike in this matchup, try to keep it on the feet & move early on. He should counter Skelly as he tries to get inside and get the feel of his speed & what he wants to do. If he can deny a few takedowns and get Skelly tired, then he can pressure forward. He is dangerous with blitzes and he may be able to catch him.

 

Chas Skelly

Age: 34

Height: 5’9

Weight: 145

Reach: 73.5”

Gym: Hard Knocks 365

From: Texas

UFC Record: 6-4

Fight Matrix: 101

Last Fought: 10 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +120

 

Skelly has not been able to stay active lately, but hopefully the injury bug is behind him. Skelly is definitely a good fighter. He is a bit awkward with the way he moves on the feet but has nice timing. He is light on his feet, bouncing in & out and almost has a fencing like style striking. He will stick & move until he can time a takedown entry. Skelly has a nice jab, and a good one-two. He has a really nice straight-right, left hook combination. If he lands the left hook clean he likes to follow with hook & uppercut combinations. He throws the left hand with big power & hurts a lot of opponents with it. He has a nice round kick to the body. He doesn’t throw many kicks, but he will get wild to close the distance at times and throw techniques such as flying knees and jump kicks. He needs to be going forward and controlling the center of the cage in this fight. Skelly is dangerous in close with front knees, uppercuts and elbows. He is deceptively fast in close and can catch fighters. He will grab the Muay Thai plum & end combinations with big knees to the head. Skelly does hold his hands low. He can sometimes close the distance with a lazy jab or lazy kick and get countered clean. He can get wild with his hooks closing the distance or in close range & get clipped with straighter shots. He also slows a bit as the fight goes on & his entries come slower. Fighters can catch him coming in more often in the later rounds. He is a very tough guy and has only been finished one time in his career and he had an injury early in the fight He isn’t a huge power guy with only 2 career KO/TKO’s.

Chas Skelly is a great submission grappler. He has the second most submissions in UFC FW history. Skelly sets his takedowns up very well with his punches. He will use his straight punch blitzes to fake them & duck under for single & double legs. He will get takedowns in the clinch as well, but his shots are his best takedowns. Once he gets it to the ground he is very slick with his submission game. He has good top control and is a good scrambler. He does a nice job of floating on top and keeping top position. He has good ground & pound & very good back takes. When he takes the back, he has great control & even if he doesn’t get the sub he will likely win the round. He has pretty good takedown defense, but he can be taken down. He is dangerous off his back. He will look to hit switches, along with attacking the legs. He has good leg locks & uses them to sweep very well. He is also good at taking the back in 50-50 positions on the ground and is a very opportunistic fighter. He has a great rear naked choke, and an awesome squeeze. He put Maximo Blanco to sleep very quickly with an anaconda choke. His front chokes are nasty & he will lock them in very quickly. He is someone you have to respect and that is going to go in there and go for broke. He has 10 career submissions and finished 13 of his 17 wins. Shelly’s usual game plan should work in this match. He is going to want to move a little bit, use timing to land some shots & then duck under and get the takedown. Griffin has poor takedown defense & I definitely see Skelly getting him down. If he takes the back or a dominant position like Ige, I think Skelly has a much better chance of bringing that neck home. Griffin gives his back too much trying to stand up.

 

I have gone back and forth on this one. I think we will see a lot of grappling in this fight, but I don’t think either fighter will be able to dominate the other and I think we will see both guys spend time on their back here. I think Skelly will be the one looking to grapple more but Griffin could have the better wrestling of the two. On the feet, I do favor Griffin though and that is why I am leaning with him as my pick. If the ground game ends up cancelling out, then I think Griffin does enough while standing to get his hand raised.

I can see this fight making a decent amount of my GPP lineups because I think we could see a lot of grappling points and possibly a finish from either side. The DK prices make Skelly my preferred play, but I am also hoping that lowers the ownership on Griffin. I do think the winner could score highly and I want shots on both. I think Griffin will be priced out of my cash lineup, so it would be Skelly or pass there. But if Griffin is going to be sub 15% on DK then his high price makes me like him even more in GPPs. I doubt I have more than 50% of this fight in my lineups but I could see 15-25% on either guy here.

Winner – Jordan Griffin via Split Decision

 

Brad Katona $8,900 vs Hunter Azure $7,300

Brad Katona

Age: 27

Height: 5’6

Weight: 135

Reach: 64.5”

Gym: SBG Ireland

From: Canada

UFC Record: 1-1

Fight Matrix: 62

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -165

 

Brad Katona will be fighting for the first time in his career coming off a loss. He had his perfect 8-0 record snapped by Merab Dvalishvili where he was dominated for 3 rounds. Katona is still a solid prospect in my eyes but needs a win here. Katona is going to be the better striker most likely. He is light on his feet, has good in & out movement, and sticks & moves well. He has heavy inside & outside leg kicks he throws early & often. He likes to walk opponents into his punches with lateral movement. He has a nice left hook & a good straight-right hand. His left hook is powerful & he dropped Jay Cucciniello with it twice. He has a nice overhand right. He will throw a left hook, right uppercut & left hook, right hook combos. He will attack the body with straights & hooks. He has nice body & head kicks. He does a good job of feinting to create opportunities to pull counter. He is also good at hand fighting with his lead hand. He doesn’t move his head much & his entries can get timed with counters. He can lead with jabs & straight punches, and his defense does leave a little bit to be desired. He is very composed, even when he eats a big shot & has a great chin. He isn’t a huge knockout threat with only one in his career.

Katona is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & not a bad grappler. He has good timing on double legs & has a good drive in order to get the finish. He likes to use a single leg to drive opponents to the cage. He will lift & slam his opponents with a high crotch single. He is excellent at reshooting if he can’t get an initial takedown & has very fast entries. He has good top control & good floating ability. He will move to dominant positions as opponents try to stand up and is very good at taking the back. He was able to get a rear naked choke against Bryce Mitchell. He attacked with a tight guillotine in that match as well. Katona was grinded out in his last fight & couldn’t get-up off his back. He is facing another fighter with a heavy wrestling/top game style in this matchup. In his fight with Merab, he really didn’t do anything wrong technically. He dug double underhooks well, had a good whizzer & great balance. He just struggled with the physicality of Merab. Even when he had dominant positions in the clinch like double underhooks, Merab was still able to land trips. Katona did throw un setup kicks at times that did get him put on his back. Katona really isn’t bad off his back at all. He has a good guard and defends himself well. He has good get-ups but struggled to stand up vs Merab. He will usually throw up armbars, triangles & attack the legs, but couldn’t use submissions due to the top pressure of Merab. Against most fighters, he can get-up off bottom well & tire fighters out. I’m sure he is savoring a matchup like this to show his improvements with his defensive wrestling. Katona has good cardio, is a smart guy & I feel still has potential. Katona has 3 submissions & should have four if they counted his finish at the bell of Matthew Lopez. In this fight, I see Katona having a big striking advantage. Azure holds his hands low & his defensive boxing isn’t great. He is there to be hit & has been dropped on the regional scene. If he pressures Azure, looks to counter with the left hook or shots over the top, I think he definitely has the power to hurt Azure. If Azure takes him down, he needs to scramble right back up to his feet. I also could see him taking the back if Azure shoots a bad takedown attempt & get a rear naked choke finish.

 

Hunter Azure

Age: 27

Height: 5’8

Weight: 135

Reach: 70.5”

Gym: MMA Lab

From: Arizona

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 168

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W7

Betting Odds: +145

 

Hunter Azure is making a quick turnaround after earning his contract on the DWCS. He is undefeated at 7-0 & has a similar grinding style to Katona’s last opponent who defeated him. Azure is a wrestler but likes to strike. Azure has powerful low kicks. He has a nice left hook, straight-right hand combination. He is pretty fast & explosive closing the distance with combos. He will close the distance with hook flurries to try to get ahold of opponents against the cage. He will sometimes go to the body or high with kicks & does have a body kick finish in his career. Azure’s game is really just leg kicks, hook flurries & takedowns. He is pretty explosive & has power but is unrefined. Azure has 3 TKO’s in his career.

Hunter Azure is a 4-time state champion wrestler at Montana. He has good single & double legs & is pretty physical. He will use explosive entries to try to get in on the legs or clinch. He will throw a leaping left hook & use it to duck under into a single or double. He will look to use hook flurries to back opponents up when he can clinch up against the cage & chain wrestle. Azure’s top control & BJJ knowledge doesn’t look the best. I don’t really see Azure having much success controlling Katona. Azure is relentless with attempts, has good cardio & will try to stay connected & hang on opponents. He was able to get close to locking in a rear naked choke in his last fight. Azure isn’t a huge submission threat with just one in his career. He does seem to have a tight squeeze when he gets his hands connected around the neck & will go for guillotines. He has good cardio & defensive wrestling. In this fight it’s going to be interesting to see how he plays it. Is he going to want to try to get takedowns or is he going to respect the BJJ of Katona? On the feet, he probably is more explosive with a one or two punch flurry but lacks the technicality on the feet to contend. To me, Azure has to try to grind & avoid submissions.

 

Hunter is making his official UFC debut here and is fighting former TUF winner, Brad Katona. Hunter is a very good wrestler and has a heavy overhand right. Katona is going to be the better striker here but I don’t think he has the power to put Azure away. If Azure wants takedowns in this fight, I think he will eventually get them and he can chain takedowns together to win rounds with top control. Katona is the better all-around fighter in this spot but I think Azure’s wrestling is good enough to get him an upset win here.

It is going to be dog or pass for me on this fight. Katona is priced too high for me and I don’t see him getting a finish here. I also don’t think he gets a lot of grappling points either going against a guy like Azure. I do think Azure will get at least 10x if he can get a win though. I do expect him to land multiple takedowns in this fight and I think he has one of the higher ceilings as an underdog. I like him to get a win here and I like his price as well, so he is going to be in play for me in all formats. I wouldn’t go overboard with exposure to him, but he is one of the dogs I like more on this card.

Winner – Hunter Azure via Unanimous Decision

 

Miles Johns $8,600 vs Cole Smith $7,600

Miles Johns

Age: 25

Height: 5’7

Weight: 135

Reach: 68”

Gym: Fortis MMA

From: Texas

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 109

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W9

Betting Odds: -130

 

Miles Johns is making his UFC debut fresh off his win on the DWCS. He is a hot prospect out of Fortis MMA. Johns is a good athlete & very fast. He’s much more explosive & powerful than his opponent. He has a good jab, left hook. He has solid inside, outside leg kicks. He has good jab, overhand rights. He is also always coming forward, but he has better movement & is much lighter on his feet. Johns will go body, head with combos when he backs opponents up. He is good at feinting the single & coming over the top with overhands. He doesn’t look to have big power in his punches, but he hits harder than Smith IMO. Johns has two career TKO’s & is undefeated at 9-0.

Miles Johns is a former state champion wrestler. Johns is a very good wrestler. He has big, explosive double leg slams. He is very good at getting in on single legs & pushing opponents to the cage. He will get high crotch slams against the cage. On top, he was able to overwhelm some low-level fighters with ground & pound, but he isn’t great on top. He doesn’t have the best top control & allows fighters to stand up from under him. In this fight, I do actually think he will be the better wrestler & early on I think it would be smart to try to slam Smith on his head & give him that message. Mitch Gagnon had success in periods holding Smith against the cage & I see Johns being able to do the same. Johns has strong takedown defense. He has good balance & will make opponents pay with punches & elbows. He got a pretty nasty guillotine on an opponent who shot in on him in a recent fight. I have seen him defend a rear naked choke pretty well against Caio Machado. I hope he won’t have to do that in this fight but it’s good to see he can. He has two career submissions.  He is coming off fighting a similar opponent in his last match, but Smith is much bigger than Ritchie Santiago. Johns got a little bit tired in that fight and needs to have his cardio raised in this fight. I think in this fight, Johns is superior everywhere. He is more technical everywhere along with being the better athlete. The only way he could lose this fight is if he gasses out. This is the biggest, tallest opponent he’s ever faced & if Smith can start to stuff his takedowns late in the fight he could start to have success. I just don’t think Smith is very dangerous on the feet, so he probably will have to take Johns down which will be tough. If Johns comes into this spot with his cardio on point it’s his fight to lose.

 

Cole Smith

Age: 30

Height: 5’11

Weight: 135

Reach: 67”

Gym: The Sound Martial Arts

From: Canada

UFC Record: 1-0

Fight Matrix: 171

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W7

Betting Odds: +110

 

Cole Smith made his UFC debut winning a decision over Mitch Gagnon. Smith is going to be the hometown fighter & is undefeated at 7-0. Even with the victory over Gagnon, I would say this is a step up in competition. Gagnon was returning after a long layoff & hasn’t won a fight since 2014.  Smith is a grinder though, with a great mindset. He goes into the cage thinking he is the mother fucker & he’s going to hurt you. Cole Smith’s striking is not very good. In his last match vs Mitch Gagnon, he was trying to keep the distance with kicks. He has very nice leg kicks. He was throwing a lot of round & front kicks to the body. He was throwing the front kick with both legs & to the head also. When he throws those kicks, he tends to leave his chin right in the air. Smith doesn’t really have hands. He will try to wing hooks in close range to back opponents off but doesn’t move his head & is extremely hittable. His movement isn’t bad, but he just isn’t the fastest or most explosive guy. The best aspect of his striking game is when he can get opponent’s backs against the cage. There it’s harder to gauge when he’s going to throw or shoot in so he can land some hand combinations, along with some nice kicks & knees. He throws nice combinations off the breaks. His striking really isn’t dangerous though, and if opponents are able to pressure him & stuff the takedowns I’m not sure he will have much of an answer. He was rocked & dropped with a shot against Mitch Gagnon in round 3. He does have two career knockouts.

 

Cole Smith is a grinder. He is big for the division & has unrelenting cardio. He is wild with his striking but uses it to back opponents up & clinch opponents up against the cage. He will control opponents against the cage, while chain wrestling and wearing on opponents. He has very good double legs and will use the grip to circle to take the back standing. He will stay in the wrestling ride position, and just continue to return opponents to the mat when they try to stand up. His back takes are pretty good also. He will get the body triangle & has good control. He doesn’t do a good job of softening his opponents up with punches to lock in the rear naked & just tries to use brute force. Due to that he’s not very proficient at finishing in back position. In his last match, he was able to deny almost all the takedown attempts of Mitch Gagnon & took his back. He was controlled against the cage a bit but used a guillotine & kimura to defend the takedowns & get off the cage. He was caught in a deep guillotine in his last match and puts his head in position to be guillotined on takedowns too much. Smith’s cardio & just doggedness wears on fighters & makes him tough to deal with. When he gets on top of opponents it’s just hard to get him off them. In this fight I do feel Johns is probably the better wrestler, but if Smith can try to drain him he could maybe take over late. Smith has two rear naked chokes & one armbar. Smith is going to need to go forward, stay in Johns’ face & stuff the takedowns when they come. He needs to attack the body with kicks & try to drain the cardio of Johns. Once Johns is tired, put him on his back & implement his game.

 

Johns looks like the much better striker in this matchup. He also has a wrestling background and looks to be the better wrestler as well. Cole Smith is a grinder though and he will look to close distance as much as he can and try to get in top control or on Johns’ back. If Johns can use his wrestling in defense, I think he wins a striking match here. Smith can make this fight ugly, but it looks like a tough matchup for him to have a lot of success in. I will take Johns to win at least 2 of the 3 rounds.

I am still not sure what I want to do with this fight. I think both sides are in play for GPPs, but I think Johns is my preferred play. However, the pricing makes Smith my preferred cash game play because we have a close betting line but a $1k difference on DK. FGTD is also -165 so Vegas does think this goes all 3 rounds. I like the floor for Smith in a 15-minute fight, but I think Johns would be the guy who has the higher ceiling here. He could get a KO or land multiple takedowns himself. I think he will be throwing more volume as well. I won’t be targeting this fight heavily, but I think we could go small on either guy here. I would guess Johns makes 1-2 out of 20 lineups and Smith also is around -1-2.

Winner – Miles Johns via Unanimous Decision

 

Marcin Tybura $8,400 vs Augusto Sakai $7,800

Marcin Tybura

Age: 33

Height: 6’3

Weight: 249

Reach: 78”

Gym: Ankos MMA

From: Poland

UFC Record: 4-4

Fight Matrix: 25

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -120

 

Marcin Tybura is in desperate need of a victory. He is coming off a knockout loss & has lost two of three fights. He has been very up & down in the UFC with a record of 4-4. Tybura is light on his feet, uses a lot of straight punches, straight front kicks to the body and then will throw nice round head kicks. He will switch stances & try to give different looks. He has a decent jab, and good counter right hook. He will throw almost a leaping straight-left. He will throw a nice uppercut, left hook combo. His head movement isn’t bad, but he tends to hold his hands low. He can get hit clean when he does that and squares up making him even more hittable. Tybura doesn’t control the center well & fighters that pressure him can push him back. He tends to back straight up & doesn’t have good footwork. He will just cover up & move in a straight line, making him an easy target to hit. In this fight, Tybura is going to need to use kicks, lateral movement & show off his superior foot speed. I would mainly look to hit blast doubles on Sakai though. He has been KO/TKO’d three times in his career including his last fight. He has 7 KO/TKO’s himself.

Tybura is a good grappler. He has strong body lock takedowns and good double legs. He will look to control opponents against the cage as well, but he doesn’t do much from there, and just takes a break. He can be reversed and have his back stuck against the cage as well. He does have very quick takedown shots, much faster than most heavyweights. He will front a jab or straight & then duck under into blast doubles. In his fight with Struve, he got several well-timed doubles. He was able to land some nice, short elbows & hammerfists & controlled position inside Struve’s guard. Tybura has shown good passing skills in the past. He does a great job of getting the mount and taking the back. He doesn’t do a ton of damage from those positions. If he could learn to do damage before looking to sink in subs, I think he could get way more finishes. He has good cardio and can push all 3 or 5 rounds as shown vs Werdum & Arlovski. Tybura has 6 submissions, but none in UFC. In this fight for Tybura, he should look to use strikes to setup takedowns. Sakai is going to be right in front of him, and if he can get a takedown early & cement position, I think it could go a long way in winning the fight.

 

Augusto Sakai

Age: 28

Height: 6’3

Weight: 264

Reach: 77”

Gym: Gile Ribeiro Team

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 2-0

Fight Matrix: 36

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W4

Betting Odds: +100

 

Augusto Sakai has started his UFC career 2-0 & is looking to jump into the top 15 with a win over Marcin Tybura. Sakai earned a very controversial win in his last match winning a split decision against Andrei Arlovski. I thought Arlovski clearly won the fight, but Sakai was given the decision. Augusto Sakai is a huge guy. He cuts weight to make the 265 lb limit and will be the bigger man in this fight. Sakai is a forward pressure striker on the feet. He isn’t the fastest guy & fighters who can stick & move well will give him tough fights in my opinion. He relies on his constant forward pressure to slow guys down. He tries to cut opponents off, back them towards the cage & make it small. When he can get fighters’ backs near the fence, he will close the distance with combinations. At range he can be low volume. He will throw some leg kicks, and front kicks to the legs & body. He has a nice jab and a good one-two. He will wing some powerful hooks & overhand rights. He is deceptively athletic & will close the distance with some flying knees to the body or front kicks to the face when opponents’ backs are against the cage. He usually finishes fighters with volume & isn’t a one punch KO guy. He fights at a slow, deliberate pace, but when he has an opponent hurt he can pick it up & throw long combinations to try to finish. Sakai does have 10 KO/TKO’s & is going to be the much more durable fighter. That’s one of his big advantages in the fight. He will be able to eat shots & continue to come forward & if Tybura can’t take him down he may gas him out. Sakai has never been finished.

Augusto Sakai isn’t a grappler and will rarely try to wrestle. His takedown defense isn’t bad. He will use underhooks to deny takedown shots & is very strong. Against the cage, he was taken down by Kongo with singles & doubles. He was able to use the cage to stand back up but was tired.  Sakai is decent in the clinch. He is heavy & will grab the Thai plum, and lean his weight on his opponents while slamming knees into the body & head. If he can drop an opponent & get on top, he is very heavy on top. He will throw nice elbows, and it’s hard to move under him. He finished Chase Sherman with ground & pound. Off his back, he has good get-ups against the cage. In space he doesn’t look to have great get-ups & can be controlled later in the fight. I haven’t really seen how Sakai does against a more aggressive passer like Tybura. When he was taken down by Kongo, Kongo was just kind of resting inside Sakai’s full guard. Sakai isn’t dangerous with submissions off his back or on top. He has zero career submissions. For Augusto Sakai, he’s going to need to come forward, cut the cage off & stuff the takedowns. He needs to up the volume a bit, attack the legs, body, and break Tybura. Tybura is a little chinny & if he lands clean he could knock him out.

 

I think Tybura is the better fighter here. I think he is the better overall striker, the more dangerous striker, and the better wrestler/grappler. However, he doesn’t strike at a high enough rate or go for enough takedowns for me to feel confident he wins this fight. Sakai is the more active fighter on the feet and Tybura has had a suspect chin, so he could get KO’d or out volume and lose a decision that way. It is hard to trust but I do like Tybura here. I would want him to move to + money before I thought about betting him though.

On DraftKings, I might just fade this fight. I think we need a finish from either guy here to be on the optimal and I don’t trust either to get one. I think we would see maybe 60 points from the winner in a decision and I am not interested in that. Nor am I confident enough to use either in my cash lineup. I will say Tybura is my preferred play and if this fight makes my player pool it would probably just be 1 lineup with him. If you have a stronger lean than I do on this fight and think either guy finishes, then I would say play them. Other than that, there are better fights to target in all formats IMO.

Winner – Marcin Tybura via Unanimous Decision

 

Jimmy Crute $8,200 vs Misha Cirkunov $8,000

Jimmy Crute

Age: 23

Height: 6’3

Weight: 205

Reach: 72.5”

Gym: Greco & Stewies House

From: Australia

UFC Record: 2-0

Fight Matrix: 19

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W10

Betting Odds: -105

 

Jimmy Crute will be looking to defeat another veteran. He was successful against his first name opponent in his last fight, defeating Sam Alvey via TKO. He is now facing another tough test in Misha Cirkunov. Crute is aggressive & athletic with strong grappling skills. He is pretty light on his feet & is pretty quick for someone his size. He will throw jab, straight-right hands, and has a good overhand right. He will throw an overhand right, left hook combination. He earned a finish on the DWCS with a straight-right, left hook combination. He will slip the jab & throw overhand lefts. He has decent head kicks and solid body kicks. He will throw them heavy.  He still is green on the feet in my opinion. He uses some big movements to close distance at times without setting them up. He is hittable, and he needs to be extremely careful against Cirkunov who is a good, counter striker. Crute is a big, powerful guy, and he isn’t a huge knockout threat on the feet. He has three TKO’s two being on the ground from mount position. He is undefeated at 10-0 and still is very durable and confident.

Crute is a very strong wrestler with a good double leg. He has quick passes and does a great job of getting to side control and then full mount. He gets very high in the mount and will land heavy ground & pound punches and elbows. He does a great job of staying heavy in mount, and not letting fighters explode up. He can get too high on the mount and rolled at times, but he will attack with leg locks, and does a good job of winning scrambles and ending up back on top. He has nice arm triangles from top position and was attacking with nice kimuras against Paul Craig. He has good takedown defense, he has a good sprawl & will circle to the back. He was taken down a few times against Paul Craig with double legs, but he showed good defense on the mat, and good sweeps. Craig did have a couple minutes of top control in round 2. I feel if he allows Cirkunov to take him down he will be in danger of being arm triangled.

 

Misha Cirkunov

Age: 32

Height: 6’3

Weight: 205

Reach: 77”

Gym: Xtreme Couture

From: Latvia

UFC Record: 5-3

Fight Matrix: 37

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -115

 

Misha Cirkunov is desperate for a victory in this fight. He has lost 3 of 4 fights, being finished in all 3 losses. He was finished in 36 seconds in his last match. Cirkunov has been a “kill or be killed” guy in his UFC career. All 8 of his fights have ended in a finish. Cirkunov is a big, physical fighter, with a grappling base. Cirkunov is a southpaw striker.  He likes to throw out his jab & one-twos. He will throw the straight-left hand as a lead. He will throw a jab, right hook, left uppercut combination. He has good hand speed in close range. He throws a lot of kicks early. He likes to throw oblique & inside leg kicks, along with front kicks to the body. He has good liver kicks that a lot of southpaws use effectively. He will go high with rear leg head kicks. He does a good job of faking underhooks & throwing right hooks. He throws a lot of volume & is fast for a LHW. He will use some nice techniques to close the distance like superman punches. He definitely has good timing on his punches and can walk fighters into shots. Cirkunov has 3 career KO/TKO’s. His chin is questionable & he doesn’t like being hit. He will show when he’s hurt by his expression & was knocked out by a 6” punch by Volkan Oezdemir. He was knocked out badly with a flying knee in his last fight against Johnny Walker which couldn’t help his durability. He has been KO/TKO’d 3 times in his career.

Cirkunov is very strong when he gets his hands on opponents and is a great grappler. He likes to get his takedowns in the clinch or against the cage. When he gets into the clinch, he will dig double unders, & dump opponents or push them to the cage. He has good control against the cage with knees to the legs & body. He also does a decent job of throwing punching combinations off the break. He has good double & single leg takedowns against the cage & is very good on top. He works quickly and is immediately looking for submissions. He will try to turk the legs & move directly into full mount. He has a good arm triangle. He can get overaggressive on top & fighters can scramble back to their feet. Nikita Krylov was able to stand up from bottom a few times. Cirkunov can be taken down himself, but he has good sweeps & will attack with guillotines. When Patrick Cummings attempted to take him down, Cirkunov showed a ton of strength. He was able to rebuff all his takedowns and bully him with knees in the clinch. He eventually got a body lock takedown right into full mount, locked in an arm triangle & finished the fight. Cirkunov has a sick arm triangle, one of the better ones in the UFC. He was able to drop Nikita Krylov & jump on a guillotine. He has 8 career submissions. He has been submitted twice early in his career & has been finished in all 4 of his losses. It’s hard to know where Misha’s confidence level is after being knocked out in 3 of his last 4 fights. He could be on his way out or be using it as motivation.

 

On the feet, this fight is close, but Misha’s biggest weakness lately has been his chin and I think Crute could KO him if it stays standing. I am not real impressed with Crute’s overall striking game, but he does have power and he is young and should improve every time out. Misha has big power as well and could get a KO himself, but I think his best path to victory is using his wrestling. I don’t think Crute is as dangerous off his back and we have seen him put on his back multiple times. I think Misha can finish with a submission or ground and pound finish. I also think he can use wrestling to win rounds and take it on the scorecards.

This is probably going to be an important fight to target for GPPs. This is our mid-range fight of the week and we have a FDGTD line of -335. Cirkunov ITD is +166 and Crute ITD is +120. This fight as a whole is a top 3-4 fight and it will be in more than half of my lineups. I prefer Cirkunov here and I will have more exposure to him. He is cheaper, and he is my pick to win. I think he will be the one going for takedowns and he could finish. Crute has as good of a shot as anybody on this card to get a Rd 1 finish so he is in play as well and if you want to go higher on him, then I wouldn’t talk you off that. I think we can avoid this fight in cash though because of their low floors, but I don’t hate Cirkunov there as well since he is the cheaper guy and I think he has a good chance at winning and scoring well.

Winner – Misha Cirkunov via Unanimous Decision

 

Antonio Carlos Junior $9,100 vs Uriah Hall $7,100

Antonio Carlos Junior

Age: 29

Height: 6’1

Weight: 185

Reach: 79”

Gym: American Top Team

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 7-3-1

Fight Matrix: 24

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -245

 

Antonio Carlos Junior had his 5 fight UFC winning streak snapped by Ian Heinisch in his last match. He is making a quick turn around after the loss & fighting just 4 months later. He will be taking on a dynamic character in Uriah Hall. Carlos Junior is big & moves well, but I wouldn’t say he’s the greatest athlete. He is getting better at his striking, but he still needs to do a lot of work.  He has a wide stance & solid in & out movement. He likes to pressure forward & make the cage small for opponents. He has a nice jab & a heavy one-two. His straight-right hand has power. He can lean back with his chin right up in the air after he jabs. He has a good uppercut. He has very heavy leg kicks. He has hard round & front kicks to the body. He likes to throw a jab, head kick combination. He will pull back with his chin up in the air when fighters blitz him as well. His last three fights and most of his fights, there is not much striking. His last fight was probably the best his striking has ever looked. He was more comfortable exchanging in the pocket with Tim Boetsch & was much faster. Against Hall, I don’t see him being comfortable striking with an explosive, fast guy who can shut his lights out, and will look to wrestle much more quickly. He has no KO/TKO’s & has been TKO’d one time.

Antonio Carlos Junior is one of the best BJJ fighters in the sport. He is dynamic with his Jiu-Jitsu for a heavier weight fighter.  Carlos Junior doesn’t have the best takedowns, but he is very strong for the division, and will get the body lock and drag fighters down. He will get double underhooks and put them against cage and work from there. He will throw knees to the body in the clinch. He is good at shooting singles from the outside. He was able to push Boetsch to the cage using a single & then landed an explosive double leg slam. He is very good on top. He is excellent at guard passing & will move from guard to half guard to mount with ease. Once he takes the mount he will throw heavy shots as well as look for arm triangles. He is very good at getting the back mount, especially for a big guy and is good at scrambling. When he takes the back, his control & finishing ability is superb. He has 6 RNCs in his career & four in his last five fights. He can be taken down himself. When fighters can close the distance & get him against the cage, they can control him against the cage & put him on his back. Marvin Vettori was able to take him down a couple times & land some nice ground & pound. He will attack with a high guard off his back and will throw nice elbows while looking for armbars or triangles. He will look for leg locks as well to sweep to top position. In this fight, I don’t see him having to worry about being taken down or swept. Carlos Junior has 8 career submissions. He needs to close the distance, cut the cage off, get the double leg & finish the fight. I feel if he gets a takedown he may just need one to finish the fight.

 

Uriah Hall

Age: 35

Height: 6’0

Weight: 185

Reach: 79.5”

Gym: Xtreme Couture

From: New York

UFC Record: 7-7

Fight Matrix: 14

Last Fought: 9 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +205

 

Uriah Hall is looking to win back to back fights for the first time since 2015. This will be his first fight in 2019. He is coming off a come from behind knockout victory of Bevon Lewis in typical Uriah Hall fashion. Hall’s last three wins he was losing before he came back & got a one shot knockout finish. Hall has a phenomenal jab, and great lateral movement. He was fantastic controlling the distance with his jab against Costa. He has a nice left hook. He has a nasty straight & overhand right, & when he lands clean he can put fighters out cold. He will throw nice inside & outside leg kicks and will attack the body with round kicks. He has a great jumping spinning back kick to the body or head. He will throw regular spinning back kicks to the body & head as well, and he is not someone you want to strike at range with. He is extremely fast and explosive & is always one punch or kick away from changing the fight. He has big power, and when he usually wins it’s by knockout with 13 KO/TKO’s in 18 wins including TUF. He has a good chin, the ability to take punishment, and come back with his own, but he doesn’t have great defense when he gets hurt. He will back up to the cage and stands right in front of opponents trying to throw back. It makes it possible for opponents to tee off on him against the cage. He has been KO/TKO’d 4 times, and 3 times in his last 4 losses.

Hall is not much of a grappler, and definitely prefers a range striking fight. Hall will rarely go for takedowns or look for the clinch. He has good lateral movement, and is dangerous with knees and kicks, making fighters hesitant to shoot in on him from a distance. When he does get taken down, he doesn’t have great defense, and was finished with G&P by Mousasi, and hit with huge shots against Jotko. He will attack with submissions off his back such as armbars and triangles, but overall his submission game is not super dangerous. Being on his back or in the clinch is not somewhere he wants to be in this match. He needs to use his lateral movement to keep the distance and not get backed up. If he can use his jab to setup his right hand and kicks, that’s his best chance to win.

 

This is going to be striker vs grappler. ACJ is going to look for takedowns here and if he can get them then he probably works his way to a submission or uses them to win a decision. If Hall can stuff takedowns, he can win this fight with a KO or a decision. I don’t see him consistently stuffing takedowns here, so I think he is going to need to get a KO early for his best shot. I am going to take ACJ here and I think he gets a sub in rounds 1 or 2.

ACJ is my preferred play here on DraftKings but I think Hall is a fine GPP play as well. If ACJ can’t finish early, then Hall could definitely knock him out and he could even get a round 1 KO. We are just relying on that KO for him to score highly. ACJ is going to be looking to grapple and I think his price is the only negative here. We pretty much need the finish from him because I don’t think he has 10+ takedowns in his gas tank to score over 10x in a decision win. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably go 1 Hall and 4-5 ACJ. I think ACJ is a fine cash game play as well but if I do use him in cash I want to be sure to have at least 1 Hall hedge LU.

Winner – Antonio Carlos Junior via 2nd round Submission

 

Michel Pereira $9,500 vs Tristan Connelly $6,700

Michel Pereira

Age: 25

Height: 6’1

Weight: 170

Reach: 73”

Gym: Scorpion Fighting Systems

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 1-0

Fight Matrix: 112

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 3-1-1

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: -550

 

Michel Pereira is entering his 2nd UFC fight with some fanfare. He went viral for his crazy techniques in the cage and his finish in his UFC debut. This guy fights like no one else ever. He will literally moonsault off the cage mid fight, throw showtime kicks & superman punches off the cage, and is just an overall wild man. I’m not sure he can pull these types of crazy techniques off vs legit fighters, and he hasn’t fought good competition. His last two wins before the UFC have come against 3-2 & 4-5 fighters and his UFC debut ended in under 2 minutes. Pereira is very athletic & has good movement. He has a solid jab & very heavy straight-right hands. He has a very long reach & will lunge forward with straight-right hands. He will throw solid one-twos and likes to go to the body with jabs & then throw the straight-right to the head. He will throw heavy hooks to the body. He will throw a lot of front kicks to the body & oblique kicks to the leg. He will do a lot of dancing & hand movement to lull opponents to sleep, then explode in with a flying kick, knee or punch combination. I have seen him do a back flip into a body kick, straight-right hand combination. He will throw 360 roundhouse kicks. He has a decent spinning back kick to the head. His front knees to the body & head aren’t bad and overall, the guy is an athletic, dangerous fighter. He leaves a lot to be desired in terms of defense. He holds his hands low & opponents with good boxing can land clean on him. In the pocket, he will brawl & rely on his chin to hold up. I don’t think he has a very good chin & when opponents back him up towards the cage, they can tee off on him. I have seen him crumble to shots that didn’t look that powerful against the cage. Opponents seem to be able to back him up & keep him against the cage at times, but he will throw kicks & superman punches off the cage to try to get off it. He can be a bit low output in between his blitz combinations. When he sees opponents are hurt, he is a finisher & will turn up the heat.  He has 9 KO/TKO’s & has finished his last four wins by KO/TKO. He has only been finished by strikes one time.

Michel Pereira isn’t much of a grappler, but he uses the clinch effectively. He will close the distance with hooks or straight punches, grab the Muay Thai plum & land knees to the body & head. He doesn’t have good defense in the clinch & opponents can land big overhands over the top & uppercuts up the middle. I have seen him shoot singles & doubles & he got a double leg in his last match. His wrestling though, doesn’t look very good. In top position, Pereira uses it more to take a break. He will just lay in opponent’s guards & try to land short hammerfists & punches. He will try crazy things such as back flip guard passes. I have even seen him drop an opponent against the cage, jump on the top of the cage & moonsault off it, over his opponent as he stood up & then jumping side kicked him to the face. He seems to have a decent sprawl & get-up. He has good cardio & when he stands up off bottom, he will go on the offensive right away. I have seen him hit with some big hammerfists in his guard & I feel an experienced grappler could dominate him on the ground. Pereira does have six submissions & only has been submitted once. Pereira has finished 15 of his 21 wins. He is only 6-7 in decisions. Pereira needs to come out fast, unpredictable & try to take Connelly out early. He has dangerous, lunging punches, along with his crazy techniques. He needs to not get taken down by Connelly and he should be good here.

 

Tristan Connelly

Age: 33

Height: 5’11

Weight: 155

Reach: 68”

Gym: Island MMA

From: Canada

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 101 (Lightweight)

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W4

Betting Odds: +400

 

Tristan Connelly is mainly a submission grappler. He is taking this fight on short notice because he is from the area and he has been on a roll lately. He had a lot of losses early in his career but since then he is 8-1 in his last 9 fights. All his wins have come by finishes and he has 4 TKO’s and 9 submissions. He has been TKO’d and submitted once each himself as well. I don’t expect him to want to stand long in this fight and he should be at a big disadvantage as long as this fight stays standing. I don’t see him having much to offer on the feet other than maybe volume and body kicks. He will be at a huge power disadvantage as well.

On the mat is where Connelly is going to want this fight. He is going to be at a size disadvantage, but he has decent BJJ and if he can get a takedown or grab a leg then he could maybe get a quick submission here. I think a leg lock type submission would be his best shot honestly. I couldn’t find a lot of film on this guy, but it seems like he is being fed to the wolves here.

 

Connelly just took this fight on less than a weeks’ notice and there are no odds for it yet. I expect Pereira to be a huge favorite here though and Connelly is likely being brought in to get Pereira another highlight reel KO. That is what I see happening here, but I expect the odds to be around -500 or so and I would only be able to parlay at those odds.

Pereira is -240 ITD and when his round 1 prop comes out I think that could be -120 or so as well. I like him in all formats and I do expect an early finish from him. He is not an all-in guy though because I don’t trust him to not make bad decisions in fights and he can put himself in bad positions. He will be very highly owned though, so we need 50% or more to get any leverage here. Connelly is a GPP only punt here and you are banking on an early sub from him to hit the nuts lineup. I am not against maybe 1 lineup or 2 max, but I am not sure he even makes my player pool.

Winner – Michel Pereira via 1st round (T)KO

 

Jeff Hughes $8,300 vs Todd Duffee $7,900

Jeff Hughes

Age: 31

Height: 6’2

Weight: 254

Reach: 77”

Gym: Strong Style Fight Team

From: Ohio

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 61

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -125

 

Jeff Hughes had a terrible loss in his UFC debut. He was fighting an opponent he had already defeated that was coming in on short notice & dropped the ball. He lost a decision a lot of people thought he won, but it was a poor showing from both men. Hughes will need a better showing in this fight. He is definitely going to be the lesser athlete. He is going to have to weather a storm early & be smart in round one. Jeff Hughes is a tough fighter, but not very athletic. He has hard low kicks & a good overhand right. He actually has pretty good boxing & hand speed. He will throw nice one-twos, and hook combinations. He will throw a nice right hook to a one-two combination. He will throw nice lead uppercut, left hook combos. He will throw a nice right hook, overhand left combination. Hughes is very good at throwing in combination against the cage. He will mix in spinning backfists & uppercuts. He throws a ton of volume for a heavyweight and is well conditioned. He trains with Stipe Miocic, so he has a great training partner to work with. Hughes isn’t a huge power guy, but it is HW & he has 4 KO/TKO’s. He has a strong chin but was TKO’d in his one loss.

Hughes is a grinder & likes to work against the cage & in top position. He will land big uppercut & overhand combinations while mixing in takedowns. He has good body lock entities. In top position, he will wear on guys with short shots & has solid control. He can try to pass too quickly and get swept at times. Hughes was able to easily defend all the submission attempts of Greene on the ground & exhausted him in their first match. His submission defense is solid. Hughes isn’t a submission threat himself & has just one in his career. He has never been submitted.

 

Todd Duffee

Age: 33

Height: 6’3

Weight: 241

Reach: 78”

Gym: Syndicate MMA

From: California

UFC Record: 3-2

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 4 Years 2 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +105

 

Todd Duffee is making his return after over 4 years off. He has had to go through knee surgeries on both knees, shoulder surgery, as well as battling MRSA. He is only 33 years old which is young for a HW, so we will see how he looks here. He was one of the most hyped HWs of all time after his UFC debut. He had a 7 second knockout & was thought to be the next big thing. He is a physical specimen & freak athlete. Things didn’t really go as planned for him. He was knocked out by Mike Russow as a -600 favorite. He bounced back to win back to back UFC fights, but was then knocked out again by Frank Mir. The one thing you can’t take away from Duffee is he is extremely dangerous, fast & athletic in the first round. He has 8 first round knockouts. All 9 of his victories he has won via KO within the first two rounds. Duffee has very fast hands & throws nice hand combinations unlike most heavyweights. He has a nice jab, & his left hook is very powerful. His left hook is what earned him his seven second KO. He will throw a jab, overhand right or left hook, overhand right, uppercut combination. Duffee will throw the overhand right in combination if he lands it. He finished Phil De Fries with a nasty combination of overhand rights. When Duffee hurts someone, he swarms in for the kill & usually takes fighters out. He doesn’t throw many kicks at all really. There are several issues with Duffee’s style. When he hurts someone, he becomes very aggressive & just closes the distance with wide shots trying to finish. It leaves him very open to be countered & makes it a 50-50 fight. He can get knocked out in these 50-50 exchanges. That’s how he lost to Frank Mir in his last fight.

Todd Duffee has pretty good takedown defense. Duffee is very hard to takedown in space. He has very fast hips and is a brick wall when fighters try to clinch up with him. He will pull his hips back & pull counters with uppercuts well. Against the cage, his takedown defense is not as good. He also doesn’t have the best clinch technique. He is strong & can reverse position, get his back off the cage & disengage vs most guys. I haven’t seen much of him off his back. He did get taken down very briefly vs Phil De Fries & bounced right back up. He doesn’t look for takedowns of his own. I don’t think Hughes will be able to take him down & I don’t expect him to attempt any takedowns. Duffee has been out for almost 5 years and could come & hit a double leg for all we know, but from what I’ve seen I feel this stays standing.

 

Duffee hasn’t fought in over 4 years so I have no idea what we are getting with him here. If this is the Duffee of old, then I would probably pick him by KO here. I can’t trust a bet on him though because he could look like a totally different guy. I do think it is KO or bust for him though. The later this fight goes the more it will favor Hughes. I don’t trust either of these guys, but I am going to take Hughes to survive the storm and finish this fight late.

I think Duffee is my preferred play here because I think he is more likely to score 100+ points. This fight does have a -300 line for FDGTD though and if Duffee doesn’t win in round 1 then I think Hughes win in rounds 2 or 3. Either way this fight could score highly so it is a top 3-4 GPP fight. I wouldn’t trust either in cash at all, but I will probably have this fight in 60% or so of my GPPs. I would guess that would be split 35% Duffee and 25% Hughes. Maybe even something like 30/30.

Winner – Jeff Hughes via 3rd round (T)KO

 

Nikita Krylov $8,500 vs Glover Teixeira $7,700

Nikita Krylov

Age: 27

Height: 6’3

Weight: 205

Reach: 77.5”

Gym: YK Promotion

From: Ukraine

UFC Record: 7-4

Fight Matrix: 16

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -110

 

Nikita Krylov got back in the UFC win column in his last fight. He had an excellent performance finishing Ovince Saint Pruex. He will be taking on a legend in Glover Teixeira & a win here would likely get him a top 5 matchup in his next fight. Krylov is a very good striker. He starts fast and there is no feeling out process with Krylov. He gets right in his opponent’s face early and tries to stay long throwing nice front kicks and round kicks to the body. He will throw the front kick to the body and then go high with a left high kick. He has fast hands, a nice jab and straight-right hand. He does a good job of setting up the jab, straight-right hand combo with a leg kick. He has a nice right hook, and when he starts to find his range and get his opponents moving backwards, he will start to up the volume. He has a good spinning back kick to the body and a good spinning backfist. He throws head kicks mid combination, and they are hard to see coming and very tricky. He has multiple head kick knockouts in the UFC. When he lands, he likes to blitz his opponents and get their back against the cage and then tries to flurry and finish the fight. He can close the distance a little bit wildly and run in with his chin high. He sometimes can throw body and high kicks without setting them up and get countered with straight punches. He seems to not react the best to getting hit and doesn’t have the best chin.

Krylov is good in the clinch, and very aggressive. He will get double underhooks, push his opponent against the cage and land nasty knees to the body and to the head. He has finished people with knees to the head in the clinch. He will go for takedowns himself, and then likes to get the back and get a rear naked choke. He has a nice front choke/guillotine and has a very tight squeeze. He taps people out very quickly once he gets his hands locked. He will sacrifice position to get the guillotine & it’s how he allowed Jan to get top position in his last match. When he was taken down by OSP in their first fight, he held onto the neck in side control & was von flued. He makes bad decisions in the octagon & I think it holds him back from his true potential. His takedown defense is not good & fighters can take him down off kicks. He has been submitted 5 times. He does have decent scrambling ability, but I feel that he definitely needs to avoid being on his back vs Glover. I think that on the feet, Krylov will be able to be in & out, use footwork & get Glover to overextend. I think he will land nice kicks & straight punches & could get a KO finish. He should avoid grappling & if he wrestles he may get reversed & submitted.

 

Glover Teixeira

Age: 39

Height: 6’2

Weight: 205

Reach: 76”

Gym: Teixeira MMA & Fitness

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 12-5

Fight Matrix: 8

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: -110

 

Glover Teixeira turned back the clock yet again to finish Ion Cutelaba in his last match. He has strung together back to back victories against up & comers but is getting a step up in competition here against Krylov. Teixeira has never lost to a fighter outside of the top 10 in his entire UFC career. Teixeira was hurt badly and recovered to get the finish. He is older, but he still is motivated & has the will to fight. He is diminishing a bit physically, but he is still capable of taking many fighters out. Teixeira will plod forward & look for boxing combinations. He sets most of his offense up off the jab. He will throw a jab, left hook, and nice one-twos. He has a nice jab, overhand right & jab, right hook combination. His straight-right hand is clean & powerful. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will rip the body with big hooks & then go up to the head. The body shots help disguise his takedown entries. He isn’t nearly as fast as he once was and doesn’t have the head movement he used to have. He is much more stationary & easy to hit. He doesn’t move his head off center line & fighters have been able to slip his jab & counter with uppercuts. He has a nice uppercut himself & times it well to counter opponent’s takedown attempts. When he gets inside he is still very dangerous. He will unload with nasty hooks to the body & head with cracking power. His ability to take a shot is diminished, but he still has a solid chin. He was rocked badly in his last match but recovered quickly. He has 17 KO/TKO’s himself and has been finished 3 times in his career. I do feel he has the power to hurt Krylov if he lands clean.

Teixeira is an awesome grappler. He has great dirty boxing in the clinch, attacking the body & head with big punches. He is a strong wrestler with a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has a great single leg in space. He does a good job of using the single to push opponents to the cage, change it to a double & dump opponents. He has good doubles against the cage & body lock trips. He was rocked badly with big elbows when he was in on a double in his last fight. Teixeira has great top control. He likes to get half guard and keep his weight heavy on opponents. He will look for arm triangles while landing short elbows & hammerfists. He will methodically pass to mount, and then the back where he can finish the fight. He is excellent at flattening his opponents out and pounding them out or getting a RNC. He will also move to side control & look for the crucifix position. He has great takedown defense, digs good underhooks & has a nice sprawl. He will defend the takedown with a guillotine attempt & he has a great squeeze. He does a great job of controlling the legs when he wraps up the neck giving him the ability to roll into top position. Teixeira has 7 submissions & has never been submitted. He is going to be the bigger, more experienced fighter. He has good cardio. The game plan for Teixeira doesn’t change much these days. He is going to try to get inside & use his hooks & uppercuts to set up takedowns. If he gets top position in this fight I think he definitely could get the submission. He can’t show respect to Krylov & bite on his feints in the outside. He needs to be aggressive, throw hard & try to touch the weak chin of Krylov & take him down.

 

This is a close one. I think Glover is the better boxer, the better wrestler and grappler. I think Krylov is the more dangerous striker, throws at a higher rate, and he is dangerous on the ground as well. Glover is also on the decline of his career and Krylov is on the rise. If this fight stays standing, I like Krylov more and I think he could get a KO. If the fight hits the ground, I think it is likely Glover taking it there and I think he could get a submission there as well. Krylov has never been the distance in his 31 pro fights so I don’t see this being any different. I will lean with Glover to have a smart game plan and get this fight to the mat.

This is my 2nd favorite fight on the card to target. I think this is basically an all-in fight and my preferred play is Glover. I think he can get this fight to the mat in round 1 and end with a submission and 95-100 DK points. At his $7.7k salary, that will likely put him on the optimal. Krylov is just as in play though and he has never seen the full 15-minutes of a fight. If he wins it is likely by KO and it could come in round 1 for over 100 DK points. I think if we want to get away from this fight we just fade it in cash because of their low floors. However, I will probably have this in 90-100% of my GPP lineups.

Winner – Glover Teixeira via 1st round Submisison

 

Justin Gaethje $9,000 vs Donald Cerrone $7,200

Justin Gaethje

Age: 30

Height: 5’11

Weight: 155

Reach: 70”

Gym: Genesis Training Academy

From: Colorado

UFC Record: 3-2

Fight Matrix: 5

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: -200

 

Justin Gaethje has looked better than ever winning back to back fights via brutal first round knockout. He is coming off a victory over perennial contender Edson Barboza & now taking on another in Cowboy Cerrone. Gaethje comes forward with a high guard and doesn’t back up. He takes shots to return his own & is all about pressure, pace & breaking opponents. Gaethje does a great job of chopping low kicks off the jabs of opponents. Gaethje is always trying to just stick in the pocket & counter with his overhand right or his left hook. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks, and then come over the top with shots. He has huge power & his willingness to take a shot to return with power is why he catches a lot of opponents. Gaethje isn’t the greatest athlete & can struggle to get inside at times. He can throw sloppy right hands to try to get into the pocket & he can’t do that against Cerrone. He needs to use his jab to get inside or walk in with his hands up. His defense is terrible. He gets hit with over 10 strikes per minute & the damage he takes is absurd. He has been unscathed really in his last two fights though. He does do a solid job of rolling with shots & blocking them with his arms, taking some power off. Gaethje has 17 KO/TKO’s in 19 wins & has been finished by KO/TKO in his two losses.

Justin Gaethje is a former All-American college wrestler, but wrestling is the farthest thing from his mind in fights. He has attempted a couple takedowns in the UFC when he was badly hurt, but it’s not something you really have to worry about as a Gaethje opponent. In the clinch, he is nasty. He will get the single collar clinch & attack with nasty right hooks & right uppercuts to the head. He will attack with the right hand to the body as well. He does a good job of framing with his left hand to give himself more extension & power on his shots. He will also look for nasty knees & elbows in the clinch. In the past, he has done a good job of using a takedown attempt to create openings for shots. Against Luis Palomino, he got in a double leg, disengaged, and immediately threw an uppercut that dropped Palomino. He has good takedown defense himself. I don’t expect Gaethje to take this down & if anything he might have to stuff a few double legs. Gaethje has just one career submission & has never been submitted.

 

Donald Cerrone

Age: 36

Height: 6’1

Weight: 155

Reach: 73”

Gym: BMF Ranch

From: Colorado

UFC Record: 23-9

Fight Matrix: 4

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +170

 

Donald Cerrone had his momentum halted in his last fight. He strung together three impressive wins in a row but was beat down by Tony Ferguson in June. He took an absurd amount of damage, and the fight was stopped due to his eye being swelled shut. He is coming back just three months later in Cowboy Cerrone fashion. He is taking on another one of the scariest fighters in the division in Justin Gaethje. Cowboy apparently dropped & gave Justin Gaethje a concussion in a sparring session a few years back. I’m sure he is drawing confidence off that. Cerrone is a nasty Muay Thai striker, and his highlight reel of finishes shows that. Cerrone throws vicious kicks, beating up opponent’s legs first and then attacking the body and head. He has the most head kick knockouts in UFC history. He has okay hands, but in boxing range he seems like he is nowhere near as comfortable as kicking range. He doesn’t have tight punching, or the greatest defense and he can be exploited in boxing range. He does have a nice check left hook in the pocket, and he has gotten better at dealing with pressure fighters. He throws a nice front leg sidekick and stomp kick to the leg. He throws a stabbing front kick to the body and at distance really beats up all parts of the body. He uses takedowns to almost disguise a step-in knee at times and it’s beautiful. He throws a step-in knee after he gets denied the shot and even follows with a head kick to close the combination. If Cerrone can find his rhythm and range, fighters are usually screwed. When he is going forward, he is one of the nastiest strikers in the division. Cerrone has obviously taken a lot of damage recently, and he cannot get hit clean against a knockout artist like Gaethje. Cerrone has 10 KO/TKO’s all in the UFC, and 5 of his last 6 wins have been KO/TKO finishes. He has been finished with strikes 5 times himself, including in his last fight just over 3 months ago.

Cerrone has long been an underrated grappler. He has always been very dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu, but he has improved his wrestling immensely in recent years. Cerrone has gotten much more wrestling heavy in recent fights, and it’s a smart thing to do since he is getting up there in age. Cerrone has good timing on double leg shots and he also has good body lock takedowns. On top, Cerrone is good, he has strong top control, and he likes to get to the back. He gets most of his submissions after he stuns and drops his opponent. He is very good at jumping on the back and locking in the rear naked choke. He has good takedown defense himself and is hard to hold down. Off his back he is very dangerous. He has nasty triangles and armbars to go along with very nice sweeps. He has that nasty armbar over Mike Perry earlier this year. He does a great job of getting omaplata sweeps in the guard and will reverse top position. If anyone is to try to get it to the ground I think it will be Donald. I could see him shooting a double leg or two if the pressure starts becoming too much. He has 17 submissions in his career and has been submitted just one time.

 

This is going to be an awesome fight. Neither of these guys are ever in boring fights and they are going to go to war from the opening bell. Cowboy is a slow starter so Gaethje could catch him and put him away early and on paper I think he is the rightful favorite. I do think the longer this fight goes the more it will favor Cowboy Cerrone. If he can make it out of the 1st round, then I like his chances in this fight and if it goes into the championship rounds I think he can get a finish. Gaethje is very hittable but he has had a solid chin and I don’t see Cowboy getting a KO while he is fresh. I do think Gaethje will tire late though because of his hectic pace and if it gets to that point I think Cowboy is going to win this fight. This is a can’t miss fight either way and I don’t think we see this one hit the scorecards. I am going to take Cowboy by 4th round stoppage.

This is an easy all-in fight and I won’t have any lineups without it. I will be starting my cash lineup with a stack and I will move on from there. I think Gaethje is the better GPP play because if he wins it is probably early and he will score at least 100 points but maybe closer to 120. He also has the volume to win late and still score that much. Cowboy is my favorite dog on the card though and I might go 50/50 on this one because I expect Gaethje to be higher owned. I might even go 60/40 in favor of Cowboy. I think you can stack this in a GPP or two as well and if Cowboy wins late I could see a stack winning it all. Either way, target who you want in this fight, but it should be in all your lineups. Even if you are super confident in one side, you should be playing both sides and maybe go 90/10 if you really want.

Winner – Donald Cerrone via 4th round (T)KO

 

 

 

 

Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!

 

 

 

*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru

**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.

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