BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 18 Location – Copenhagen, Denmark
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Denmark. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize. Typically, I stay around 20 lineups each week and go after that big GPP and then max the $4 20-entry max GPP as well. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Jack Shore $8,900 vs Nohelin Hernandez $7,300
Jack Shore
Age: 24
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: Tillery Combat Academy
From: Wales
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 68
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W11
Betting Odds: -165
Jack Shore is making his much-anticipated UFC debut. The 24-year-old has racked up a record of 11-0 & is coming off a defense of his Cage Warriors title in April. He also has a perfect 12-0 record as an amateur. On the feet, Shore is technical. He is light on his feet, bouncing in & out & likes using lateral movement to keep the distance. Shore has a really nice jab, and good one-two. He will use his jab or one-two to pull counter & he slips & rips well. Shore has a very accurate straight-right hand. Shore has a nice lead left hook. He will double up with his lead hand by throwing double jabs, or jab, left hooks. Shore will occasionally throw leg & oblique kicks. Shore has nice round kicks to the head. He likes to use front kicks up the middle, to the body and head. Shore fights smart on the feet as well. He doesn’t overextend or throw many combinations. He won’t engage in a pocket fight & always keeps the fight at his pace & distance. Shore is a disciplined fighter & unless the moment takes over him he should be composed & fight to his potential in this fight. Shore isn’t a big knockout threat on the feet. He has 4 KO/TKO’s, but most from top position.
Jack Shore likes to mix it up. Shore’s wrestling allows him to duck under & get easy takedowns. He will also get trip takedowns in the clinch. When Shore gets top position, he looks very good. He has great control & passes to dominant positions well. Shore has a very heavy mount & great back takes. He is good at flattening opponents out when he takes the back & unloading G&P. Shore will either finish with the shots or lock in rear naked chokes. Shore has 5 career rear naked chokes. In his last match, the first takedown he earned, he quickly took the back & for the rear naked choke. Shore’s takedown defense is pretty solid. In his last match, he showed good balance defending a single leg. He is good at using the kimura to counter takedowns against the cage. In his last two fights I have seen him taken down in the clinch. Shore was tripped & taken down, along with hip thrown in his last match. Off his back, Shore is composed & works back to his feet. Shore has a good butterfly guard & it’s hard to pass his guard. He will use it to scramble back to his feet or sweep to top position. He has good get-ups against the cage & overall is a strong, well-rounded grappler. Shore has 6 career submissions. His style allows him to keep the same pace for all three rounds. He has very good cardio & finished his last two fights in round 3.
Nohelin Hernandez
Age: 25
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: AKA
From: California
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 130
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +145
Nohelin Hernández had his four-fight winning streak snapped in his UFC debut. He is still searching for his first win in 2019. He is 0-2 in fights so far this year. He not only lost to Chito Vera in his UFC debut, but also lost a boxing match in May. Hernandez is a striker who primarily likes to box. Hernandez does have pro boxing experience, but an 0-3 record. Hernandez likes to pressure forward & control the center. He works behind a nice jab that he will double & triple up on. He will throw nice one-twos, and hooks in combination. Hernandez will throw nice right hook, straight-left hand combinations. He has pretty fast hands & will trade in the pocket. He doesn’t have a lot of variety in his striking. In his last match he did try to implement some leg kicks & front kicks to the body. Chito was able to catch the kick & take the back of Hernandez. Hernandez was able to take top position after Chito went for an armbar. Hernandez does keep good forward pressure & tries to pull counter. Due to that he isn’t very high volume, but dangerous if he can land. He has had a lot of split decisions due to this style. Hernandez also is flat footed & stands very tall. He can be chopped down with leg kicks. He also doesn’t move his head & his chin is straight up in the air. He gets tagged in almost all his fights & I have seen him dropped many times. He does have good recoverability & won’t give up. He doesn’t seem to have huge power & has 3 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished with strikes.
Hernandez isn’t usually an offensive grappler. He will shoot single legs & try to control opponents in the clinch, but he isn’t a great offensive wrestler. He did catch Chito sleeping & landed a double leg early in round two. He didn’t get a ton of offense going & eventually just stood up out of Chito’s guard. Hernandez does have solid takedown defense. He has a great sprawl & fast hips. He uses the cage well to defend takedowns. After he was dropped by Fierce Taylor he was submitted by rear naked choke. Against Chito Vera he level changed into a knee, got dropped & finished against by rear naked choke. Nohelin isn’t a submission threat & has zero submissions in his career.
Hernandez is going to be the better boxer here and if this fight stays standing I think he would win. I don’t think that will be the case though. Shore is a good grappler and if things aren’t going his way on the feet, I expect him to start looking for the takedowns. I think he will be able to get this fight against the cage, land takedowns and eventually work his way to a rear-naked choke submission.
We have a -165 FDGTD line in this fight and it is the first fight on the card. That has me interested. I am likely going to have shares of both sides of this fight, but my preferred play is Shore. He is going to be the guy looking to grapple and if he does get the fight to the ground, I think we will get either a lot of advance points or a submission. I think he has a big edge on the ground here and that is what we like on DK. I want some shares of Hernandez as well because he is cheap, and he could get a win if he can keep this fight standing. He could also get a KO, but I don’t think that is likely, so I think shooting for 10x is what we would hope for in a decision victory.
Winner – Jack Shore via 2nd round Submission
Marc Diakiese $8,500 vs Lando Vannata $7,700
Marc Diakiese
Age: 26
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Hemmers Gym
From: England
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 107
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -155
Marc Diakiese saved his job with an excellent performance vs Joe Duffy. He had his back against the wall coming off 3 consecutive losses & really delivered. Diakiese will now be looking for his first two fight win streak since 2016. He entered the UFC with a lot of fanfare & faltered, but with a win here he could be back on the right track. Diakiese was much less flashy in his last fight, and more technically sound. Diakiese was using feints to create openings for leg kicks. He was attacking with an impressive jab to the body and head. Diakiese had issues with the low calf kicks vs Drakkar Klose, but really battered the lead leg of Joe Duffy. Diakiese throws a really nice straight-right, left hook combination. His overhand right is powerful. Diakiese dropped Joe Duffy with a nasty lead elbow. He has extremely fast round & front kicks body head. Diakiese has extremely fast & dangerous spins. He will use a double jab or one-two into a spinning kick to the body or head. He loves to throw the jumping spinning kick. Diakiese was using much more footwork & pull countering. Diakiese is extremely fast & explosive. Opponents have to be worried about him ending the fight with one shot at any time. When Marc Diakiese can get his timing, he is very hard to get inside on. He will just tee fighters up with counters as they enter range & angle off. Fighters who have had success vs Diakiese have been able to establish forward pressure right away & stay in boxing range. Nasrat Haqparast was able to keep his jab in Diakiese’s face, back him towards the fence & tee off with combinations. Diakiese has had issues with leg kicks in the past as well. Diakiese gets cut easily & shows a lot of damage when he gets hit. I would say Diakiese is a little breakable. When fighters hurt him, he will kind of resign to being defensive. Diakiese is very tough & has a good chin. He took an absolute beating vs Nasrat Haqparast but made it to the final bell. He has never been finished by strikes in his career. Diakiese has 6 career KO/TKO’s.
Marc Diakiese is a well-rounded fighter & is a good offensive wrestler. He is very physically strong, with explosive power. In the clinch, he has strong control against the cage & good short punches & elbows. He can pick people up & put them down very quickly. He will get big slams in the clinch, if he can get the tight waist, he will get suplexes. He even got what was almost a choke slam against Drakkar Klose. Diakiese also catches kicks & knees very well & gets takedowns through that. In his fight with Dan Hooker, he was caught with a guillotine for a double against the cage. He was able to out wrestle Drakkar Klose who is a former college wrestler. On the ground, he will try to stand up in opponent’s guards and land long punches. He will move to half guard & control from there. He isn’t super dangerous on top, but he has good control. In his fight with Frankie Perez, he dug deep & got the third-round takedown & the control time needed to win the fight. Diakiese was able to takedown Joe Duffy but did nothing & got stood up by the referee. He got a couple more body lock takedowns, but really never got anything going offensively in top position until the very end of round 3. Diakiese has had issues with cardio in the past but was fresh late in round 3. He was able to get several body lock takedowns & control against the cage for the last couple minutes of round 3. Diakiese is not a submission guy & much more about control then damage on the mat. He has just one career submission. Diakiese has been submitted one time.
Lando Vannata
Age: 27
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Jackson’s MMA Acoma
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 2-3-2
Fight Matrix: 135
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 1-2-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +135
Lando Vannata is another fighter who entered the UFC with a lot of buzz. He had an epic fight with Tony Ferguson, where he almost knocked him out. Vannata was probably the closest to ending Ferguson’s win streak. He followed that up with a beautiful wheel kick KO of John Makdessi, but things haven’t gone as planned then. He had two draws & two losses, before getting back in the win column vs Marcos Mariano. Marcos Mariano is one of the worst fighters to grace the octagon in recent years, so that win isn’t a great one. Lando Vannata is a very good striker. His movement is excellent & he is extremely fast in & out. In the first round Vannata is super dangerous. He walks fighters down while faking, feinting, moving in & out and controlling distance. He will switch stances & is very unpredictable. He will explode into combinations. He keeps his hands low and uses head movement to avoid shots and come back with counters. He can get hit with some big shots but rolls with them well & has a great chin. He has very crisp punches, nice combinations and really nice kicks. Vannata has an excellent right hook & nasty straight-left hand. He is excellent at pull countering with the left hand and will double, even triple up on the punch. Vannata will use the left hook to set up straight punch blitzes. Vannata will throw a nasty left hook, right straight combination. He has a nasty uppercut. When he gets opponents backing up & start landing the jab, fighters are in trouble because he puts together crazy combinations. He will attack the body with left hooks & then go upstairs with head kicks. Vannata has very nice leg kicks. He will throw them inside, outside along with oblique kicks. When he fought Matt Frevola, he was getting countered due to not setting up his leg kicks. He was dropped due to this. He will throw sanchai kicks and spinning heel kicks extremely fluidly. His spinning heel kick KO of John was a thing of beauty. He sets the heel kicks up with the oblique kick to the knee. He also is very good at catching kicks & returning with spinning kicks of his own. He has a good spinning backfist. Vannata can leave his chin in the air at times & get tagged with huge shots. His chin is solid he has never been finished with strikes in his career and has been in some wars. He was hurt badly by Matt Frevola & Tony Ferguson. I definitely feel Vannata has more grit & is willing to dig deeper in a dog fight. He has 4 KO/TKO’s.
Lando Vannata is a former college wrestler & good grappler. He is very good at using his takedowns to setup shots off the breaks. Vannata will get deep in on the legs, disengage & throw a quick head kick or hook that opponents don’t see. He was able to drop Frevola with a head kick on the break in their fight. He has fast, single & double leg shots & good takedowns overall. He landed a nice body lock takedown in his last match. Against Mariano, Vannata was able to posture up inside Mariano’s guard & land some big shots. He used the punches to move to side control, grabbed the kimura & got the finish. Lando Vannata’s takedown defense is excellent. He has a great sprawl & is very good at disengaging from the clinch. He is very good at using the guillotine to counter takedowns and reverse to top position. David Teymur was able to land a few blast doubles on him but couldn’t control position on top. Vannata is extremely hard to hold down & creates scrambles almost immediately. He will roll for leg locks. I don’t expect there to be much grappling in this fight. Vannata has 5 submissions & has been submitted one time. His cardio used to be very poor, but in his fight with Matt Frevola he went 3 rounds hard. Lando has had fights vs Tony Ferguson, David Teymur, and Bobby Green where he dominated round one, but gassed out & lost the later rounds.
This is a fun one. I think Diakiese is the better all-around fighter here, but Vannata is going to be the one pushing the pace and throwing more volume. I don’t think either will be easy to finish though so I think we get a 15-minute fight here. I see Diakiese landing the harder shots but Vannata will be landing more shots. I think Diakiese is more likely to land takedowns though and I think as the fight goes on he will pick up more and more. I think Vannata probably wins round 1 here but I will take Diakiese to win rounds 2 and 3 and get his hand raised.
This is another fight I will be looking to play both sides of. Vannata fights are usually higher paced and both guys have KO power. They can also both land takedowns here and they are priced in the mid-range where they fit nicely into lineups. I think I would prefer Diakiese more for GPPs because I think he is the better overall fighter and more likely to get a knockout. However, I like Lando more for cash games because I don’t like many underdogs this week and I do think he probably gets a high paced 15-minute fight here.
Winner – Marc Diakiese via Unanimous Decision
Macy Chiasson $9,400 vs Lina Lansberg $6,800
Macy Chiasson
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -420
Macy Chiasson is looking to continue her assault on the Bantamweight division. She has finished all 3 of her UFC fights. She is once again a massive favorite in this matchup. She has a great frame, is very tall & long for the division. Chiasson has good hand speed. She throws nice one-twos and has pop on her shots. She will throw a double jab, overhand right. She has hard body kicks & nice head kicks. She has a nice front kick to the body as well and was landing her body kick at will in her last match. She will throw long, lead left hooks. She will throw spinning heel kicks. She is still green, but athletic & powerful with a lot of potential. She dropped Pannie Kianzad with a lead elbow & left, right hook combination. She landed a left hook, right hook, left hook combination that dropped Gina Mazany in her last fight. She is a bit of a plodder & does take shots coming forward. She doesn’t move her head & is rather easy to hit with shots. She is definitely more comfortable fighting in the clinch & on the ground. With her making the drop down to 135 lbs it will be interesting to see if she still has the speed to get inside and take shots over time. She has good power & three KO/TKO’s in her pro career. She has never been finished by strikes as a pro but was finished once as an amateur.
Chiasson is a strong grappler, and very dangerous in the clinch. She has nasty knees to the body & head from the Thai plum. She has big power in those shots & finished Leah Letson on the show with knees to the body. She has nice elbows to the head. Her height & reach give her very good control in that position, and she’s able to dominate her opponents. She will duck under & look for double legs. On top, she likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. She is able to take the back off sprawls when she defends takedown attempts. When she takes the back, she is very long, has great control and can slip the arm under the chin quickly. She finished Pannie Kianzad with a rear naked choke in her match to win TUF. She has good takedown defense, and good get-ups. She will get butterfly hooks & does a good job of transitioning into double legs as she gets up. She has finished 4 consecutive fights. She has 2 submissions & never been finished by submission.
Lina Lansberg
Age: 37
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 65.5”
Gym: Redline Training Center
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +335
Lina Lansberg is looking to build off one of the best performances of her career. She had a dominant win over Tonya Evinger where she really showed improved grappling. Lansberg is not a great striker at range that Macy is, she is a bit slow and clunky. She has a decent jab, and a good straight-right hand. She likes to use the overhand right to close the distance and get in the clinch. She will throw the occasional body kick, and can go up to the head with it, but her kicks are not extremely dangerous. She does a good job of catching her opponents kicks and getting a takedown or getting in the clinch because of it. She has a good chin and is willing to take a lot of damage and keep coming forward. She has a lot of scar tissue and has been opened up in her recent fights. She has been finished 3 times via TKO.
Lina Lansberg had the best grappling performance of her career in her last match. She was able to out grapple & reverse one of the better grapplers in the division in Tonya Evinger. Lansberg was able to get several takedowns against the cage & was dominant on the ground. Lansberg has always been known to have solid clinch control against the cage. She didn’t have much offense previously from that position but would land short elbows & punches. Versus Evinger, she implemented takedowns & ground & pound. She was able to land big shots from half guard, and ultimately moved to mount where she landed some big elbows. In the past, Lansberg has had trouble off her back. Her takedown defense is questionable & she allows opponents to transition to dominant positions very quickly. Aspen Ladd was able to mount her & finish her very quickly once the fight hit the mat. In this fight, she definitely needs to avoid being put on her back. Lansberg has no submissions & has never been subbed. Lansberg has always had questionable cardio & slows down. At 37 years old this is definitely her last run.
Macy is my most confident pick on the card. I think she is the much better striker here and the only way she loses on the feet is by getting cut with an elbow. Lina’s path to victory would be on the ground but I don’t think she will be able to control where this fight takes place. I like Macy to get a TKO stoppage at some point in this fight.
I have no interest in Lansberg here. She will be a full fade for me and I don’t see how she scores highly unless she can get a crazy, cut stoppage early. It is Macy or pass here for me. I like Macy a lot for cash games and I will probably look to lock her in mine. I also want to be overweight on her in GPPs. She averages 107 DK points per fight so far and I like this matchup for her to get over 100 again. I would guess she makes about half my GPP lineups and if I was making 150 I still might full fade Lansberg here.
Winner – Macy Chiasson via 2nd round (T)KO
Brandon Davis $8,700 vs Giga Chikadze $7,500
Brandon Davis
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Alan Belcher MMA Club
From: Mississippi
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: 191
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Brandon Davis is making a very quick turnaround. He is returning just 5 weeks after his split decision loss to Kyung Ho Kang. Davis is moving back up to FW for this fight after a 1-1 run at BW. I am not sure if he is giving up on the idea of BW or the weight class is more due to the short notice of the fight. Davis is a pressure fighter & a come forward striker. He has fast, straight punches, uses solid footwork and head movement to land and angle off. He has a nice, front snap kick to the body and throws very nice leg kicks early and often. He has a nice straight-right hand he can land and angle off. He has a nice lead hook and will use it to setup his leg kicks. His jab is fast and straight. His hands are fast, and he can land long range, straight punching combinations with both hands. He is good at controlling the range, just sliding out of the way of shots or catching them on the gloves and shoulder. He has a nice step-in knee. He can keep his hands low in the pocket after throwing sometimes & get clipped. He has the ability to get hurt & then come back hard. He enjoys a war. He has 3 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes. Davis needs to pressure in this fight on the feet, jam the kicks & keep it at boxing range.
Brandon Davis isn’t a great grappler. He stands tall and the double leg is there to get. He does have heavy hips and does a decent job of getting double underhooks and disengaging. Against the cage, he isn’t nearly as good with his takedown defense. He will not fight hands well and lets opponents get their hands connected on the legs and they are able to take the back against him. In his last fight though, he was doing much better in the clinch. He was able to get his back off the cage quickly with kimuras & physicality. In this fight, I doubt he will have to deal with any takedown attempts. In his last fight with Kang, Davis lost due to wrestling, but did land a takedown. He was also able to control Randy Costa against the cage also & work with short shots. He eventually dropped & submitted Costa with a rear naked choke. Even against great grapplers he was able to stand up from under them multiple times. He is difficult to submit & not going to tap quickly. He has been submitted in the UFC, but it was by a banana split against Zabit, which not many guys will be able to pull off. Davis has just two career takedowns in the UFC, but he has to go for them here. If he can get Chikadze on his back, he should be able to control him & maybe even improve position & work towards a finish. Davis has 3 career submissions.
Giga Chikadze
Age: 31
Height: 6’0
Weight: 145
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +130
Giga Chikadze will be making his UFC debut. Chikadze is a former Glory kickboxer and a great striker. Chikadze did get the DWCS opportunity in 2018 but was unsuccessful losing via rear naked choke in the third round. Giga Chikadze’s opposition level is extremely suspect. In his two most recent fights since his loss on Contender series, Chikadze has defeated two opponents in who have earned a win in MMA. His two victories are over fighters with records of 1-10 & 2-32. The combined record of the opponents he’s defeated are 3-63. Chikadze has definitely fought high level strikers, and if this fight stays standing Chikadze will definitely have an advantage. Chikadze is a switch stance fighter with elite speed. He likes to walk fighters down, stay light on his feet, and try to pull counter. He usually is in a southpaw stance initially. He has a nasty jab, good one-two & devastating kicks. He has a really nice pull counter straight & left hook. He isn’t an overly punch heavy guy & doesn’t thrown many punch combos at all. Chikadze is very kick heavy. He has nasty front & round kicks to the body and head. He has a nasty counter front knee & will throw nice flying knees. He will beautiful throw question mark kicks to the head. He will throw axe kicks, as well as spinning kicks to the head. Chikadze also loves to throw rolling thunder kicks at the end of rounds. Chikadze’s left kick is a hammer. He has finished multiple opponents with that kick. In his fight with Austin Springer, he was not setting the kick up well & getting them caught & taken down. I’m not sure Chikadze can be effective with his kick happy style & poor takedown defense in MMA. His defense is very good & if an opponent wants to try to be aggressive he will slip, rip & knock them out. Fighters in MMA have to respect his striking, not exchange & look for takedowns. Chikadze has 5 KO/TKO’s. Chikadze has been finished a couple times in kickboxing but has a strong chin.
Giga Chikadze showed poor grappling skills in his loss to Austin Springer on the contender series. Chikadze was able to defend a body lock early & disengage but made bad mistakes. When he landed a nice pull counter left hand, he lost composure, and went for an obvious flying knee being taken down easily. Chikadze continuously threw his kicks un setup getting them caught & taken down. He also got taken down with a blast double against the cage. Off his back, he looked very green. Chikadze was able to retain his guard but showed poor posture control. He was able to use some triangle attempts to create scrambles, but his setups were very slow & obvious. Chikadze was able to use an omaplata late in round one to sweep to top position. Chikadze was taken down in every round & controlled for large portions of round one & two. In round three he was mounted, pounded on, gave his back & was submitted. Chikadze did look like he had good cardio and wasn’t a complete fish out of water on the mat, but needs work. It’s possible Chikadze was embarrassed & worked hard on his ground game after that loss. It was over a year ago & he is 2-0 since then. I haven’t been able to find his last two fights, but he has won both by submission.
The big advantage for Davis in this fight will be through grappling. He isn’t the greatest grappler and he likes to get into wars on the feet, so I am not confident in him looking for takedowns as often as he should, but he does have a big advantage if he can get Chikadze to the mat. Chikadze should be the better striker here though and if he can keep this fight standing then he can win it. However, the combined record for the opponents he has beaten is 3-57 so I am not sure how good he really is. I am going to take Davis here by submission and hope he plays it smart.
On DraftKings, Davis is my preferred play here. If he has a smart game plan he should look to grapple here and if he does then he can get 100+ points and a finish in this fight. If he doesn’t, he probably won’t be on the optimal lineup and he could even lose. I have mild interest in Chikadze in GPPs for the KO potential and just because I don’t like many of the dogs on the card. I do want some Davis exposure though, but he won’t be a core play of mine. I think he is in play in all formats, but I would guess he makes maybe 25% of my lineups which should put me in line with the field, if not slightly above. Chikadze probably only makes 1-2 out of my 20 and he would be a GPP only play for me.
Winner – Brandon Davis via 3rd round Submission
Ismail Naurdiev $9,000 vs Siyar Bahadurzada $7,200
Ismail Naurdiev
Age: 23
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Austria
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 54
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -175
Ismail Naurdiev couldn’t capitalize on the momentum of his UFC debut, losing his second fight to Chance Rencountre. He was a massive favorite going into this bout but couldn’t deal with the size & grappling of Rencountre. Naurdiev is still only 23 years old & has a ton of potential. Ismail is light on his feet with a long stance & solid movement. He has a nice jab & good inside leg kicks. He has a very good lead leg & will throw nice front kicks & sidekicks to the head & body. He will throw a one-two to a round kick to the body. He closes the distance with extremely fast, straight punch combinations. He has very nice rear uppercuts. He is very accurate & if he can get opponents backed near the cage he has finishing ability. He has nasty spinning back kicks & spinning back elbows. He has nasty jump knees to the head. He is hittable and loads up on a lot of shots. He is much better when opponents give him space. When fighters make him go backwards, he isn’t as dangerous. Naurdiev has to control distance, use more kicks & feints to force Bahadurzada to open up. He has to respect the power & use his kicks and distance control. He has 11 KO/TKO’s in his career & never been finished with strikes.
Naurdiev is a very good grappler. His takedown defense cost him the fight vs Chance Rencountre, but it looked amazing vs Prazeres. At 23 years old this guy is improving rapidly. He has an excellent whizzer & underhooks to defend takedowns. He has amazing balance when opponents go for singles, he can jump on one leg & defend takedowns a la BJ Penn. Naurdiev was able to explode & sweep a credentialed black belt in Michel Prazeres. Not only was he able to sweep him multiple times, but he was efficient on top. He landed big ground & pound, & even took dominant positions like mount & the back. He won the grappling with Prazeres which was highly impressive. He has strong double legs & will pick opponents up & slam them. On top, he has pretty nasty ground & pound and is very accurate. He will take the back, flatten opponents out and finish with punches. In his last match vs Chance Rencountre, he got his kicks caught & was taken down because of it. Naurdiev couldn’t get-up off his back & he allowed Rencountre to transition & get to dominant positions. In this fight, I think he will clearly be the superior grappler though. Naurdiev has 5 submissions & has been submitted one time.
Siyar Bahadurzada
Age: 35
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Jackson Wink MMA
From: Afghanistan
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 74
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +155
Siyar Bahadurzada had his 3-fight win streak snapped in his last match. He lost a decision to Curtis Millender. This is the first fight of 2019 for Bahadurzada after suffering an injury. Bahadurzada has struggled staying healthy in recent years & has just fought 3 times since 2016. He has been in the UFC since 2012 & has just fought 7 times. As a fighter, Bahadurzada is a durable brawler with knockout power. Bahadurzada has a very nice straight & overhand right. He will close the distance with flurries of hooks & overhands that are dangerous. Bahadurzada mainly just likes to walk opponents down, hold his hands low & use head movement to counter. He will throw everything into his hooks & uppercuts. If he lands a hammer clean, he will knock opponents out cold. Siyar Bahadurzada is willing to exchange & take one to give one. Bahadurzada has very heavy kicks. He has nasty low kicks along with front & round kicks to the body. He hurt Luan Chagas with a front kick to the body & then knocked him out with an uppercut. When Bahadurzada hurts someone, he smells blood & goes for the finish in brutal fashion. Bahadurzada can be very low volume & just look in the mirror at opponents. He struggled with kicks & the distance striking of Millender especially in round one. Siyar throws everything 100% so opponents need to move into his range for him to land. Bahadurzada has his hands very low & when he’s stunned he gets emotional & goes to war. He will eat huge bombs & shows poor defense. He absorbed an absurd amount of punishment in round 3 vs Curtis Millender. Bahadurzada will never quit & you have to put him out cold. Siyar has never been finished by strikes in his career. Bahadurzada has 14 KO/TKO’s.
Siyar Bahadurzada is an average grappler. He isn’t a super active wrestler, and I highly doubt he can takedown Naurdiev. In Bahadurzada’s last match, he did get a body lock takedown in round two. He was able to get a very sloppy single leg but couldn’t control Millender on the mat. Bahadurzada has heavy ground & pound. When he can posture up he will rain down punches & elbows. He likes to use his elbow to post on the chin of his opponents & then throwing punches with the free hand. His top control isn’t great, because he postures up & throws everything into shots. Fighters can scramble up from under him. Luan Chagas was able to take his back, because he was so wild throwing ground & pound inside of Chagas’s guard. Bahadurzada’s takedown defense looks average. Bahadurzada loads up on his punches, so if you can feint & duck under into singles & doubles you can land them easily. Rob Wilkinson was able to get a couple takedowns, and cage control in round one. Bahadurzada was also swept late in round 3 by Curtis Millender. Bahadurzada does have a good arm triangle, & 6 career submissions. He has been submitted twice in his career.
Naurdiev looks like he could be special, but he is only 23 years old and still learning. I think he is the better grappler here and that is where he lost his last fight. However, Siyar could possibly get him on his back as well and he has heavy power on the feet. I was hoping to get closer to PK in this fight and I would have been on Naurdiev there, but I think the line is right and I don’t see any value at this number. I will take Naurdiev to win a 29-28 decision here by being the better overall fighter and avoiding the KO shots and takedowns.
On this card, with the other $9k options we have, I might have to full fade Naurdiev here. I like all the fighters above him more and I am willing to move down from an underdog to somebody cheaper in order to get up to any of them. If I was making 150 builds then he would make my lineups, but with 20 I don’t think he makes the cut. This is going to be Siyar or pass for me. I do want some Siyar and I think he is playable in all formats. He could get a KO or get takedowns in this fight and any win from him could do the job. When he does win, he usually scores highly though so I think he will be one of the underdogs I look to get 20% or more exposure to.
Winner – Ismail Naurdiev via Unanimous Decision
Makhmud Muradov $8,600 vs Alessio Di Chirico $7,600
Makhmud Muradov
Age: 29
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: N/A
Gym: Monster Gym
From: Uzbekistan
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 81
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W11
Betting Odds: -150
Makhmud Muradov is making his UFC debut with a MMA record of 22-6. He is the first TMT Money Team fighter to fight in MMA. Muradov is managed by Floyd Mayweather Jr. Muradov already has 543K Instagram followers & Floyd is calling him the best MMA fighter in the world. He is currently riding an 11-fight win streak & has defeated back to back UFC veterans. Muradov is a strong athlete. He has good movement and is very fast & explosive closing the distance. Muradov has a nasty jab, and great left hook. He is always moving and giving different angles after the jab. He is light on his feet, and switches stances frequently. Muradov will touch with his jab or left hook to get his range for a more powerful right hook, straight or uppercut. He has a nasty one punch uppercut KO of Tato Primera where he switched stances, & threw a left uppercut, while angling off the cage that knocked Primera out cold. He has a heavy overhand right. Muradov will also mix in lead elbows, and up elbows. Muradov can sometimes hold his hands low & jut his chin out a bit. His footwork is pretty fast & it’s easier said to close the distance & catch him. Muradov also has a pretty dynamic kicking game. He throws nasty front kicks up the middle to the body and head. He will throw round kicks to the body & head, along with switch & question mark kicks. He throws very nice jumping, round house kicks or front kicks to the body & head. Muradov can switch stances & throw the kicks fluidly with both legs from both stances. Muradov will mix in spinning kicks also when he gets his opponent in survival mode. Muradov has really nice flying knees he will throw when he backs opponents to the cage. He has finished fights with flying knees. Muradov is a dynamic, athletic striker with knockout power. On the feet, I see him having a sizeable advantage. I do feel he is hittable, but it hasn’t been exploited yet & I don’t know if Di Chirico is the guy to do it. Muradov has 15 KO/TKO’s. He has finished 8 of his last 10 fights by knockout. Muradov has been finished one time in his career by TKO due to doctor’s stoppage.
Makhmud Muradov has a solid grappling game. He has fast double leg shots and finishes well. He can explode into big slams or turn the corner. Muradov looks heavy in top position, and when he can posture, he will rain down heavy elbows & punches. He doesn’t look super comfortable in top position at times. Alberto Uda was able to threaten him with his guard and make him stand up out of top position. He was able to drop Uda with an overhand right later in the fight. He followed up with brutal ground & pound that put Uda to sleep. He threw a disgusting flying punch that landed clean & followed up with concussive elbows. In his last match, he took down Wendell Oliveira, almost took his back, but once again just let him back to his feet. In the second round he once again took him down. This time he took the wrestling ride position on the back & finished the fight. He is good at trapping the far wrist & raining down unanswered blows. Muradov can back himself up towards the cage at times. He also sometimes gets crazy with his jump kicks or flying knees & puts himself in position to be taken down. Muradov has very good takedown defense in recent fights. In the clinch, he is extremely hard to takedown. He digs double underhooks of his own quickly & changes position. He will look for trips, along with just disengaging depending on the situation. I haven’t seen someone take him down in any recent fights. Muradov is just dangerous to takedown also. He will counter with flying knees, uppercuts and could knock you out. It looked like Muradov had issues with submission defense early in his career. He was submitted three times out of his first four losses. Muradov hasn’t lost by submission since 2013. He isn’t a big submission threat with just three in his career. Muradov is constantly exploding & using huge movements, so you would think he would slow down, but he has strong cardio.
Alessio Di Chirico
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Gloria Fight Center
From: Italy
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 88
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +130
Alessio Di Chirico had his two-fight win streak snapped in his last match. He lost a close decision to Kevin Holland. Di Chirico had a very poor showing in that fight and couldn’t capitalize on a hurt, one armed Holland in round 3. Di Chirico has really improved his striking & is much more fluid than he was at the start of his career. He has a pretty snappy jab & good left hook. He is good at circling away from his opponent’s power hand and walking them into shots. He will try to walk opponents into left hooks & left body kicks. He will throw the occasional inside leg kick. He has a nice right hook, left straight combination. He will also throw nice elbows in close range. When he’s going forward he likes to throw a lot of overhand rights. He really struggles to get inside when forced to be the aggressor. He has slow feet & is a bit stiff. He likes to grab the Muay Thai plum after getting inside with his punches & throwing clinch knees. He knocked Oluwale Bambose with a clinch knee. Overall, I don’t think he has huge power. He doesn’t have the greatest defense. Fighters who can cut him off & make cage small can land big shots on him. He doesn’t have good enough speed to trade in the pocket with most guys. He was hit & hurt with some big shots against Julian Marquez. Di Chirico has 5 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished by strikes.
Di Chirico is improving as a grappler. In his last match, he had a lot of success with dirty boxing & elbows. He has very good timing on his single leg and cuts the angle well. He will use the single to drive opponents to the fence, transition to a double & slam opponents. He has pretty good drive on his takedowns. His top game is underwhelming. He doesn’t have great control or submission defense. He was put in a tight armbar in his last match. He also leaves his head in places where he can get guillotined. He isn’t great at cementing top position & opponents have been able to scramble back to their feet pretty easily. He seemed to tire in round 3 against Julian Marquez after not being able to hold him down. Di Chirico has been submitted one time & has 4 career submissions early in his career.
Muradov is actually the first MMA fighter signed by Floyd Mayweather’s promotion, so he has a lot of hype coming into his UFC debut here. I see him being the better striker here and I think he will be the one pressing forward and landing more volume. I think the main worries here would be him getting taken down and maybe being countered with a hard shot on the feet. I do think Muradov is the better overall fighter here though and as long as the UFC jitters don’t get to him I think he picks up a win here.
I like Muradov here and I think he is in play in all formats. I don’t know that he gets a finish though and if that is the case I don’t think he will make the optimal lineup. He won’t be a guy that I force into lineups, but I do like this range and I will be mixing all the guys around his price into GPP lineups. I don’t think Chirico makes my player pool here though. He could be a live dog and I don’t see him being highly owned, but I don’t think he has much of a ceiling and if he does win he might not even 10x his underdog price. There are other underdogs for cheaper who I would rather target so it’s Muradov or pass for me.
Winner – Makhmud Muradov via Unanimous Decision
Alen Amedovski $8,200 vs John Phillips $8,000
Alen Amedovski
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: ATT Rome
From: Macedonia
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 202
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -125
Alen Amedovski came into his UFC debut undefeated at 8-0 but dropped a decision to Krzysztof Jotko. Jotko is a very tough opponent for a UFC debut, but Amedovski was thoroughly dominated. He is extremely aggressive & swings for the fences. He just had a 12 second knockout win with a jab, right hook, left hook combination in his last win. His left hook is nasty. He will throw very nice one-twos & will pull counter nicely with it. He has a devastating overhand right. When he lands a big shot, he is very good at following up with combinations & putting opponents out cold. When he drops opponents, he will finish the fight with devastating ground & pound, and if he gets fighters hurt usually he will finish. He has finished all 8 of his wins by knockout.
Amedovski doesn’t have much offensive grappling footage available. He seems to have decent wrestling against the cage with body locks in the clinch. He is aggressive on top with ground & pound and tries to get the back. He doesn’t have great top control & he allows opponents to get-up rather easily. He will go for armbars, but they seem very sloppy, and allows fighters to move to side control. In this fight, there will likely be no worries about defensive grappling.
John Phillips
Age: 34
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: SBG Ireland
From: Wales
UFC Record: 0-3
Fight Matrix: 191
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +105
John Phillips is still searching for that illusive UFC win. He has begun his tenure 0-3, but his last fight was very controversial. Phillips is getting one final opportunity to save his job here with a victory over Alen Amedovski. Phillips is a solid boxer. He has a nice one-two & a powerful right hook. He will throw a wild overhand right, left hook combination. He will throw hard hooks & uppercuts to close the distance. He has solid hand speed & is extremely dangerous in the pocket. Kevin Holland had him hurt multiple times but was unwilling to engage in the pocket due to Phillips’ power. Phillips throttled Jack Marshman early in round one of his last match & had Marshman on his bike the rest of the fight. He throws heavy, low leg kicks. He can be out struck by fighters who can stay long. He has a great chin & is very hard to put away. He keeps heavy, forward pressure, walks through shots to get in the pocket & let his hands go. When he gets fighters backed towards the cage, he will unload with hard hook & uppercut combinations to the body & head. Phillips has 18 KO/TKO’s in 21 wins.
Phillips is not a good grappler and has very poor submission defense. He has been submitted many times. He doesn’t have good takedown defense & can be taken down fairly easily when opponents get in on his legs. His opponents can also take him down by catching his kicks. Off his back he doesn’t have much. He seems lost & will only just try to explode to his feet while exposing his back. He was submitted very quickly by Charles Byrd in his UFC debut. He has 0 submissions and has been submitted zero times.
This is going to be a brawl between two strikers. I would be shocked to see either of these guys looking for takedowns and I expect them to stand and bang. I expect Phillips to be the one walking forward and pushing the pace, but I think Amedovski is the crisper striker and maybe has more power as well. I think Amedovski gets a counter punch KO at some point in this fight, but I have no real confidence in that pick. Should be fun to watch though.
This is going to be a tricky one. We have a -215 FDGTD line so Vegas thinks one of these guys is getting knocked out. They are also the mid-range, priced fight of the week and if either gets a KO, then there is a decent chance they end up winning somebody $25k. I think they are both in play and you can split your exposure however you want. I don’t think the winner scores highly if they don’t get the KO, so I won’t be going all-in on this fight, but I am going to take more of a stand and lean with Amedovski. I will probably look to be overweight to him and underweight to Phillips. I don’t see this fight making more than half my total lineups though so I might even get ballsy and fade Phillips here. I think this is an easy fade in cash games, but it could be an important one for GPPs. If you like Phillips here, then I am not against you going with the opposite exposure as me and going overweight to him instead.
Winner – Alen Amedovski via 1st round (T)KO
Alex Oliveira $8,800 vs Nicolas Dalby $7,400
Alex Oliveira
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 77”
Gym: Tata Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-5-1
Fight Matrix: 28
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -145
Alex Oliveira is a UFC mainstay & never in a boring fight. He has lost back to back fights & definitely needs to win this match. He was submitted by Gunnar Nelson & then dropped a decision to Mike Perry. Cowboy will be taking on the returning Nicolas Dalby in enemy territory. Oliveira is very dangerous especially in round one. Oliveira is a seriously explosive athlete. He doesn’t use a lot of setups and throws everything into all his shots. He has implemented a couple leg kicks into his game in his last two fights. He has a nasty straight-right hand. He is good at framing with his lead hand to gauge distance & then dropping it down the pipe quickly. He uses a long, karate style stance & is always moving in & out before exploding in with combinations. He will explode in with straight & hook punch combinations, that are vicious. He will explode in with a lead left hook. He will try to pull counter opponents into straight or overhand rights. He throws a lot of kicks, and usually starts the fights off with kicks. He will throw nice front & round kicks to the body. He will switch stances, but he doesn’t have a ton of offense from southpaw. He will throw lead leg hook kicks & front kicks to the body from that stance. He is excellent at catching kicks & returning with shots or getting a takedown. He can be timed when he comes in and has taken a ton of damage in recent fights. He is very aggressive & when opponents are trying to give punishment, they are going to have to take some. He can lack discipline in fights & sometimes looks like he has no game plan whatsoever on the feet. He can also get himself out of position by overextending at times. He needs to have more of a game plan & not be so willing to go to war against Dalby. He had his nose broken badly by Yancy Medieros & cut open like a can of beans vs Gunnar Nelson. He is very tough & can take a shot. He has only been TKO’d one time in his career, in his war with Yancy. He has big knockout power & only needs one clean shot to finish the fight. He has 12 career KO/TKO’s.
Oliveira is nasty in the clinch. He does a great job of controlling a wrist & coming over the top with brutal elbows & knees to the body. He can finish the fight from that position. He is extremely, physically strong & can man handle & control opponents against the cage while zapping their energy. He will look to get body lock & duplex takedowns but isn’t a technical wrestler. He uses a lot of strength & muscles fighters to the mat. He is strong on top & aggressive with ground & pound. He has nasty hammerfists & elbows. He is very good at using his frame to stand up in opponent’s guards & land big shots. He has good takedown defense in the clinch. He will attack with big elbows & does a good job of digging underhooks & reversing the position. He isn’t great at defending wrestling shots from range and can be beaten in wrestling scrambles. Off his back he is not very good. He tries to muscle his way out of positions, and it can work at times, but it can also allow opponents to advance position. He also tends to give his back when he’s trying to stand up. He is good at defending from the back & getting wrist control to turn in. He was able to reverse Gunnar Nelson’s back control & landed some big shots from the guard. He was able to land big hammerfists shots even when Nelson was on his back. Oliveira has 4 submissions and has been submitted 4 times. Oliveira usually starts extremely fast and gasses. That has led to a lot of his losses.
Nicolas Dalby
Age: 34
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Rumble Sports
From: Denmark
UFC Record: 1-3-1
Fight Matrix: 116
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: 1NC
Betting Odds: +125
Nicolas Dalby is getting a second chance in the UFC after one of the bloodiest fights in MMA history. It’s the only fight I can think of that was finished due to too much blood on the canvas. Nicolas Dalby had a very successful start to his UFC career. He defeated Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos and has a draw vs Darren Till, that most felt he deserved to win. Dalby followed that up with back to back losses & was cut from the organization. After 5 fights on the regional scene he is getting the call back to the big time. Dalby will be fighting in his home down of Copenhagen and will have the crowd firmly on his side. Nicolas Dalby is an aggressive, forward pressure striker who starts rounds very quickly. Dalby uses a wide stance & a lot of feints & explosion. He will feint his way into range & then explode into a combination. He has a nice, long jab. He will close the distance with fast, straight punch combos. Dalby also has a nice left hook & overhand right. Dalby will also switch stances mid combination & catch opponents. Dalby has nice inside leg kicks. He ends a lot of combinations with question mark kicks. He will throw some nice round kicks to the body and head. Dalby will stay in his opponent’s face & keep the volume high. He has excellent cardio & that’s how he breaks a lot of opponents. He will pour it on with punch combinations when he gets his range & puts punches & kicks together well. Dalby is very hittable. He is right in front of opponents and doesn’t move his head. Dalby has taken a ton of damage throughout his career & I do feel he is a little chinny. There is still no quit in Dalby & he is a battler. Dalby has 6 KO/TKO’s. I do feel he looked much better in his last fight. Dalby has not been finished yet in his career.
Nicolas Dalby’s defensive grappling is a little questionable. He has very poor takedown defense. Dalby’s striking style of exploding in, squares his hips a lot, and gives up easy single & double leg entries. Dalby also is always crashing into the clinch. Dalby’s takedown defense against the cage is also not good. Instead of defending the takedowns & disengaging, he will look for switches & low percentage reversals that put him on his back. Dalby will also throw un setup kicks that can be used to take him down. When Dalby is put on his back, he is not the best. Peter Sobotta was able to pass his guard like butter & really do damage on the mat. A strength of Nicolas Dalby is his cardio. He is able to continue to get back to his feet, and not allow opponents to rest for long periods. When his opponents become tired, that’s when he can hit a switch & take the back or dominant position & go to work. Dalby had a fight recently vs Phil Mulpeter where he was down 2-0 due to the wrestling, but tired Mulpeter out & knocked him out in round 3. Mulpeter isn’t a very high-level opponent though & it wasn’t good that it was so close. Dalby is active in the clinch offensively. He will throw nice, heavy knees to the body and head & look for head kicks off the breaks. He has nice body lock takedowns. He tends to be stronger than a lot of his opponents & be able to maneuver them around. Dalby has a pretty good top game & good ground & pound. He will look for arm triangles. In Dalby’s last match, he was able to control Ross Houston on the mat for a large portion of the fight. Dalby has 4 submissions & has never been finished in his career.
Dalby is making his return to the UFC after being in Cage Warriors the last 3 years and is getting a fight in his hometown. I expect this to be Fight of the Night and I think the value is on Dalby as the dog. I am going to pick Oliveira to win here because I think he is the more dangerous fighter and if there is an early finish it is more likely him. However, the longer this fight goes the more it will shift into Dalby’s favor. He is going to set a high pace and his cardio is way better than Oliveira’s. I think Oliveira wins the 1st round and I think Dalby wins the 3rd. I see it coming down to that second round and I think Oliveira can probably win most of it. This is a dog or pass fight for me though on the betting line.
I think this is our FOTN and that makes me interested in both sides of this fight. This will be a fight I target more heavily in GPPs. I think even in a decision either guy could score over 10x their salary and I think the ceiling for Cowboy is pretty high. He could get a late 1st round finish and break the slate here. However, if he doesn’t then Dalby could take over late and I think he will set a high enough pace to score well in a win. I will probably target this fight in more than half my lineups and if I was making 10 lineups, I would probably have 2-4 of each. I slightly favor Cowboy as my preferred play, but I do like Dalby more than most underdogs on this slate.
Winner – Alex Oliveira via Split Decision
Michal Oleksiejczuk $9,100 vs Ovince Saint Preux $7,100
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Age: 24
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: 74”
Gym: GKS Górnik Łęczna
From: Poland
UFC Record: 2-0-1
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -245
Michal Oleksiejczuk is taking another step up in competition after his first-round finishes of Gian Villante & Gadzhimurad Antigulov. He will be taking on OSP and is catching him when he is peaking & OSP is declining. Michal Oleksiejczuk is a southpaw power striker who comes forward & puts a lot of pressure on opponents. He isn’t the most athletic fighter, but he has technical boxing & fast hands. He has good body & head movement and gives different angles. He does a good job of staying loose with his hands & body movement. He will use a lot of fakes & feints. He has a nasty overhand left & left hook in the pocket. He will throw nice one-twos down the middle. He does an excellent job of attacking the body with left hooks & straight-lefts. He will throw a jab, left hook to the body or a left straight to the body, right hook combination. Michal does a great job of blocking & returning in the pocket and has good defense in close range. He has nasty round & front kicks to the body. In this fight, early on I think he needs to use some of those kicks, attack the body, and move, not stay in front of OSP, but keep the pace high. His pace & body attack really tired out Khalil Rountree and finished Gian Villante to the body. Michal showed his true power in his last match. He dropped Antigulov moving backwards with a left hook & and then took him out with an uppercut. He can get hit as he enters with overhands, and he takes shots to give shots with his style. Oleksiejczuk has huge power and has finished 10 of his wins by KO/TKO. He has knocked out 5 of his last 6 opponents. He has only been finished by TKO one time in his career.
Michal Oleksiejczuk is a very competent grappler. Michal showed off some good fight IQ, catching a kick and taking Khalil Rountree down in round 1 when he was most explosive. He took Rountree down again with a nice single leg in round 3, and in this round, he showed more top control. He was able to land some nice elbows, and body shots from full guard, and kept Rountree grounded. He progressed to the back for a brief period & showed good ability to move to more dominant positions. He has good takedown defense. In his last 2 UFC fights we have seen no offensive grappling from Michal. He trains with Robert Roszkiewicz who is a former Juco national wrestling champion in the USA, so he is trying to round out his game. In the UFC we have yet to see him have to fight off his back. Antigulov tried a couple takedowns but didn’t set them up at all & wasn’t even close. We haven’t seen Michal defend shots where opponents are deep or fight off his back in the UFC. OSP will definitely try to test that. Michal isn’t a big submission threat with just 1 in his career. He was submitted by a triangle in his 3rd pro fight.
Ovince St. Preux
Age: 36
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 80”
Gym: Knoxville Martial Arts
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 11-8
Fight Matrix: 28
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +205
Ovince St. Preux needs to get back in the win column here. He has lost three of his last four fights & looked bad in his last fight vs Nikita Krylov. This will be the 20th UFC fight for OSP & the damage looks to have built up. He can’t take a shot like he used to. OSP is still a very dangerous guy & a threat to anybody. OSP is long and rangy with a very odd striking style. He has his hands down and will attack from odd angles with unorthodox strikes. He will square up with his opponents a lot which is usually is not technically sound, but he it gives him knockout power from both sides and he makes it work. He will explode forward with a nice straight-left hand. Saint Preux has a nice, long, right hook. His straight punch blitzes are very fast. Saint Preux has nasty round kicks to the body and head, and good snap kicks. He will throw front leg sidekicks to the body. Sometimes he can look super sloppy. He will really overextend & throw himself off balance. He struggles with fighters who use movement & kicks. He also doesn’t throw many combinations, he will just go for one shot kill shots. The issue with Saint Preux’s striking style is he’s lost his reflexes. He still holds his hands low & instead of slipping & ripping or beating opponents to the punch, he is getting tagged clean. Saint Preux has been dropped & hurt in a lot of recent fights. It looks like his speed with his offensive strikes has gone, along with some confidence & durability. He will go second a lot & after being hit go into a defensive shell. He was essentially knocked out at the bell vs Dominick Reyes & took some bombs from Nikita Krylov. Against Krylov Saint Preux barely landed any strikes whatsoever on the feet & looked stuck in quick sand compared to Krylov. OSP is still very dangerous himself & if he beats you he’s usually finishing you. He has 11 career KO/TKO’s including 4 in the UFC.
Saint Preux is a good grappler and has relied much more on that in recent fights. He is a solid wrestler and very physical. He has good double leg takedowns, and strong body locks. Saint Preux can panic wrestle at times & leave his head inside to be guillotined. He was put to sleep by Ilir Latifi with a guillotine. He is good in the clinch and can control fighters against the fence. He has good knees to the body and short punches and elbows. He can leave too much space in the clinch & get hit with big punches & elbows himself. On top, OSP is once again very unorthodox. He has a calf slicer, and 3 Von Flue chokes. He was able to take down Krylov in round one of his last match and take the mount. Saint Preux has excellent arm locks. He got a straight armbar on Tyson Pedro in his last win. Saint Preux cares more about submission than position & fighters are able to scramble back to their feet on him if they avoid the sub. His takedown defense is very good. He is super hard to takedown in space and does a great job of getting his back to the fence where he has great takedown defense. OSP has great wrist control and will get very wide making it hard for fighters to clamp their hands together. He will reverse takedowns with switches & the whizzer & is very aggressive in top position. He defended 7 out of 8 of Corey Anderson’s takedowns, and eventually finished him with a head kick. If he does get taken down, he has a great get-up game, and is super hard to hold down. When fighters can cement position on him he has issues though. He allows opponents to move to dominant positions & looked to quit when taken down in his last match. He was almost immediately mounted, gave his back & was submitted by rear naked choke. OSP was rear naked choked by Glover Teixeira as well. Saint Preux does have 5 UFC submissions & 7 overall in his career. Saint Preux has been submitted 3 times in his career. All OSP’s fights are entertaining & he is a kill or be killed fighter. In 19 UFC fights he has gone to decision just 6 times. Saint Preux has finished 9 of his 11 UFC wins. He is just 2-4 in decisions & has lost 3 in a row.
I like Oleksiejczuk here. I think he is the better fighter everywhere and he is 12 years younger and trending up, while OSP is on the downside of his career. OSP is the best fighter Michal has ever faced though and he could get a KO or a submission in this fight. I think he is limited to a finish though and if this goes all 15-minutes I see Michal winning a unanimous decision. I will take him to get a KO here over OSP in round 1 or 2.
This is going to be a fight I target a lot in GPPs. Maybe more so OSP just because of their salaries. I like all the fighters in Oleksiejczuk’s price range, so I will be mixing them all into lineups. OSP is the cheapest dog who I am willing to target but he has one of the higher ceilings of all the underdogs. This fight has a -325 FDGTD line so I think we need to target both sides but it’s a GPP only fight for me either way. I do want a cool amount of Oleksiejczuk as well, but I prefer the top 3 priced fighters a bit more, so I will have more exposure to them which will take away from him. If I was making 10 lineups, I would guess I have about 2-3 Michal and 3-4 OSP. I don’t see this fight going all 3-rounds though so it’s boom or bust either way.
Winner – Michal Oleksiejczuk via 1st round (T)KO
Khalil Rountree $8,400 vs Ion Cutelaba $7,800
Khalil Rountree
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 74”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Nevada
UFC Record: 4-3-1
Fight Matrix: 33
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3–1-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -125
Khalil Rountree had 7 UFC fights before entering the octagon against Eryk Anders, but it was almost as if we saw the debut of “Thalil”. Rountree has moved his whole fight camps to Thailand and is once again at Tiger Muay Thai for this fight. He looked phenomenal, and completely destroyed Eryk Anders, fighting a straight Thai style. Rountree has been very inconsistent in his performances, so if he can have another excellent showing here, that will prove progression. Rountree is also extremely explosive, especially in the first round & this fight should be fireworks. Against Anders, Rountree was hopping on his lead leg. staying very light on his feet & threw vicious leg kicks. He was controlling distance very well with his jab. He was double jabbing into range for hooks & straight punches. He dropped Anders several times with left & right hooks. He was exploding into range & looked super dangerous. The leg kicks from Rountree early really was the tail of the fight. After he lit him up with a few kicks in the first round, he really neutralized Anders. Anders really never got any offense going. Rountree has shown his elite striking ability in MMA time & time again though. He had a scintillating knockout of kickboxing legend Gokhan Saki. Rountree has finished all but one of his UFC wins by KO. In his decision victory vs Eryk Anders, Rountree had 4 knock downs. Rountree has 5 KO/TKO’s in 8 wins & has never been knocked out.
Khalil Rountree’s Achilles heel in his career has been grapplers. Rountree was quickly dealt with in the clinch against Johnny Walker, which is what implored him to go to Thailand. We didn’t see any of his clinch game vs Anders, so it’s still a question mark how much it’s truly improved. Rountree didn’t have to deal with very many takedown attempts at all against Anders. He sprawled on one takedown, but the leg kicks early really nullified the takedown threat. After showing that style one time, you have to think Cutelaba is preparing to counter the leg kicks or get takedowns off of them. No one had seen Rountree fight this kind of style in his previous fights. Rountree has not even had to defend a takedown in his last three fights. Rountree’s wrestling has really been bad in UFC competition. He will try to use guillotines instead of defending the takedown. Michal Oleksiejczuk was able to easily take him down with single legs. His takedown defense is just 52% & he has never attempted a takedown in the UFC. Khalil also has 0 career submissions. He has been submitted one time via rear naked choke.
Ion Cutelaba
Age: 25
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: CSA Moldova
From: Moldova
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +105
Ion Cutelaba tricked a lot of people out of their money in his last fight. He did his best mean mug and showed a lot of confident & disrespect towards Teixeira like he does vs all his opponents. Those antics he does makes people think he is a great fighter when in reality, he has shown a ton of holes throughout his career. He was finished by Teixeira & has been very up & down so far in his UFC career. Cutelaba is a beast & extremely aggressive early on. He has 11 KO/TKO’s, all in round one. He is fast & explosive early. He has a nice one-two and will throw an overhand right from hell. When he gets inside, he will let his hooks go in combination with vicious power. He will throw wide hooks & overhands in close range, while mixing in uppercuts. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks. He will occasionally throw oblique kicks to the knee & low kicks. He will occasionally throw a round house kick to the body. In his last match, Ion was staying lighter on his feet & throwing more kicks. He threw some front kicks up the middle, question mark kicks, and round kicks to the head. I would say it’s the most diverse his striking has ever been. He was also mixing in heavy knees at the end of combinations. In the past his opponents have started to get a beat on his spinning attacks & cleanly countered him. He can struggle to find his range at times & gets gun shy when countered. Against both Jared Cannonier & Misha Cirkunov, he was coming up short consistently with wild, looping shots & crazy spinning backfists. He did drop Glover Teixeira with a spinning backfist in his last match. It seemed the new style of movement & kicks quickly tired out Cutelaba & he gassed out in like 3 minutes. In round two Glover began to really walk him down heavily & landed big hooks in close range. He allowed Glover to back him up & control the center. The intimidation tactics could be useful here. Rountree has broken before & it may rattle him. He does have a good chin & can take a beating. He has 11 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Ion Cutelaba is not a bad grappler. In this fight, he needs to come in with a wrestling heavy game plan. He is Greco Roman wrestler, and a Moldovan national champion in judo & sambo. He has solid double leg takedowns & is explosive with his entries. He is strong in the clinch & has solid body locks & throws. He has nasty knees to the body & elbows to the head in the clinch. He was able to finish Antigulov with clinch strikes. In his fight with Jared Cannonier he landed several double leg takedowns. He dropped Luis Henríque Da Silva & knocked him out with vicious ground & pound. His takedown defense likely won’t be tested in this fight. Against Antigulov. he was taken down a few times, but continuously got back to his feet. He eventually battered Antigulov with elbows, knees & uppercuts in the clinch & finished the fight. His takedown defense likely won’t be tested in this fight. He defended all 7 of Glover Teixeira’s takedown attempts. He got knocked off balance throwing a strike, and off his back he was dealt with quickly. Glover was able to easily take the back & get the submission. Cutelaba has been finished twice, both by submission. Cutelaba has just two career submissions of his own & isn’t really a threat with Jiu-Jitsu.
Khalil is going to be the better striker in this matchup and he will be winning if it stays at range. Cutelaba is going to look to push the pace, get on the inside, and if he can do that, he could get a KO or make this a dirty fight and win that way. I think he should be going for takedowns in this fight though and if he can get Khalil on his back he can win rounds that way. I am going to side with Cutelaba not playing Khalil’s game plan here and getting the upset with a GNP finish.
This is another great GPP fight that we should avoid in cash. Both guys have high ceilings and low floors and they are priced in the mid-range. That has GPP written all over it and since I am picking the dog, he is my preferred play. I think Cutelaba will be the underdog I have the most exposure to this week and he has 100+ point upside. If he gets an early finish, he should be a lock for the optimal lineup, and I think he should be looking for takedowns in this fight. Khalil looked great in his last fight though and if Cutelaba wants to strike at range then Khalil probably knocks him out and that is why I will be targeting him as well. With 10 lineups, I would probably have 4-5 Ion and 2-3 Khalil here. Not quite all-in, but one of the more important GPP fights.
Winner – Ion Cutelaba via 2nd round (T)KO
Gilbert Burns $8,300 vs Gunnar Nelson $7,900
Gilbert Burns
Age: 33
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: Blackzillians
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 10-4
Fight Matrix: 30
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -135
Gilbert Burns is stepping in on short notice yet again & getting a big opportunity in a co main event. Burns just came in on short notice August 10th & is now jumping in again September 28th. He is getting the biggest name of his career in Gunnar Nelson. Burns is a dangerous fighter. He has one punch knockout power, to compliment his world class Jiu-Jitsu. He is light on his feet & tries to be in & out. He will throw nice one-twos, along with a jab, overhand right. He has a nice left hook, dropping OAM with it. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks. He has a solid jab, uppercut combination. He will throw heavy round kicks to the body & head. Burns is extremely explosive & opponents have to respect his overhand blitzes. Burns throws heavy low kicks & nice body kicks. He has gotten better at using a high guard & attacking the legs with big kicks. Burns has really improved his striking defense, but he can float his lead hand low & back up in straight lines when pressured. His power is the game changer on the feet & he has multiple one punch knockouts. He has a good chin & will take shots & return usually landing the heavier shot. He has 5 KO/TKO’s & has been finished once by strikes. Even coming up to 170 lbs, I still think Burns has the more fire power with his punches.
Gilbert Burns has really improved his wrestling. He is extremely physical and uses it to his advantage. He will shoot a single, push opponents, chain it into a double & take fighters on rides. He was able to slam OAM multiple times, who is one of the stronger grapplers in the division. He will shoot nice, reactive body locks & doubles in space. His timing on his takedowns is excellent. He does a good job of using the entry to circle to the back & take it from standing position or drag opponents to the mat from there. He was able to use the body lock to takedown Alexey Kunchenko, along with some well-timed shots. Kunchenko was undefeated with some of the best takedown defense in the division. When he is on top, Burns is one of the better top players in the UFC. He works very quickly & is always searching for the back. He has tremendous back control & top control overall. He will transition to mount as well, and search for armbars & rear naked chokes the whole time. In his last match, he was able to control Kunchenko on the mat, and land shots from inside his full guard. He never really threatened with submissions, but he kept him planted on his back. Burns has 7 submissions in his career. I think Gilbert will definitely be looking for takedowns in this fight, and I see him having success controlling Gunnar if he can take top position. Burns did tire a bit in his last fight & took some big shots in round 3. Hopefully he is in fighting shape & ready to jump right back in here.
Gunnar Nelson
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: SBG Ireland
From: Iceland
UFC Record: 8-4
Fight Matrix: 18
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +115
Gunnar Nelson was largely dominated by Leon Edwards in March. Nelson was out struck, dropped & out grappled in the fight. He was scheduled to fight Thiago Alves in this spot but is now getting a much different style in Gilbert Burns. Nelson will be looking to avoid the first two fight losing streak of his career. Gunnar Nelson is a black belt in karate & a very good striker. He has a very sideways stance and is very good in & out. He is light on his feet, and ready to spring into a shot or takedowns. Nelson is extremely fast closing the distance. He almost lulls opponents to sleep with slow movements, and then springs into strikes. Nelson has a nasty straight-right hand & very good check left hook. He will throw hard left hook, straight-right hand combinations. He does a great job of meeting opponents in the middle with counters. He will slowly move back when he sees a shot coming, plant on his back foot and string into a straight-right hand, catching opponents first. He has good inside, outside leg kicks & nice body kicks. He will throw tricky head kicks and nice spinning kicks to the body & head. He holds his hands low & can get hit with explosive blitz combos. He is susceptible to low kicks. I feel Burns will attack the lead leg of Nelson to try to slow his movement. When Nelson tires or his movement slows he becomes very hittable. Nelson is durable and has a good chin. He has only been knocked out one time. It was a bit controversial how Ponzinibbio got the knockout, because Nelson got poked in the eyes in the exchange.
Nelson is a great grappler. He is a strong wrestler & black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Nelson likes to time takedowns from the outside & has good drive. He has nice body lock takedowns. He is good at using his punches to level change after a combination. Nelson has a crushing top game when he gets on top. He has great guard passing and an awesome mount take. When he gets to mount he will throw nasty slicing elbows. He cut Alex Oliveira badly in his last match basically leading to the finish. Nelson will look for rear naked chokes, and high elbow guillotines. He has 13 submissions & has never been submitted himself. The only time he was dominated on the mat, was against Demian Maia. He does slow down as the fight continues & has a questionable gas tank.
This is a great matchup between two top grapplers. I do think Burns is the better BJJ player if this fight hits the mat and Nelson isn’t as good on his back as he is with top control. On the feet, it’s close. I think Nelson will look to keep it standing and I do think he is the guy with more power, and a more, well-rounded striking game, but Burns is the one with more volume and will likely be pushing forward. I think this will come down to the wire, but I am going to take Burns to get his hand raised. I wouldn’t risk a bet here though at these odds with him taking the fight on short notice.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Burns. I think Nelson is in play for the KO potential, but he isn’t really a KO guy, so I might full fade him here. He will be the bigger fighter here and we have seen Burns chin fail him before. I think Nelson is a fine ownership play here if you like him but with 20 lineups I don’t see me having more than 1 lineup with him. I think Burns is in play in all formats though and I do think we see 3 full rounds here. Vegas does too with the -185 FGTD line. I think Burns will be the guy striking at a higher pace though and he has power himself and could get a KO. I don’t think we will see a ton of grappling in this fight though, so I won’t be too invested in it overall. With 10 lineups I might go 2 with Burns and fade Nelson.
Winner – Gilbert Burns via Split Decision
Mark Madsen $9,500 vs Danilo Belluardo $6,700
Mark Madsen
Age: 35
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: N/A
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Denmark
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 202
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -650
The three-time Olympian Mark Madsen is making his UFC debut in his home country of Denmark. Madsen will be moving down to 155 lbs for the first time in his career & at 35 years old I do believe that’s something to keep an eye on. Madsen won the silver medal in the 2016 summer Olympics for Greco Roman wrestling. Madsen had his first fight in 2013, but really began his MMA career in 2018. He is 6-0 since 2018 & is getting the UFC call. His competition level is a little suspect. His last match was vs a 0-0 opponent. Madsen’s striking is developing & not very good. He is powerful, explosive, athletic & can knock fighters out. When he strikes at range, he is a little clunky & awkward. He looks vulnerable to counters & not very comfortable. He does have a devastating overhand right that floors opponents. He has a decent left hook or jab, left hook. He is constantly pressuring forward, cuts the cage off well & tries to make it a close-range fight. Inside he has decent head movement & fighters have to respect his ability to wrestle. Madsen has two career KO/TKO’s. I haven’t seen him get hit clean much to say if he has a good chin or not.
Mark Madsen is obviously an elite grappler. Madsen usually wastes little time on getting the fight to the ground. He almost immediately closes the distance into the clinch or a double leg. In his last match, he landed an explosive double leg slam. Madsen has excellent clinch takedowns. He will get the tight waist & drag opponents to the mat. In top position Madsen passes very well & has heavy ground & pound. He will land big elbows from half guard, & then transition to mount. He has great mount & back takes. He has good rear naked chokes. Madsen will get the wrestling ride position, trap the far wrist & land ground & pound with the free arm. He will use the front head lock position to snap down opponents & lock in guillotines. He has nasty standing guillotines he will put opponents to sleep with. When Madsen takes top position, he usually is staying attached to his opponent for the remainder of the round. I haven’t seen much of Madsen off his back. In a fight with Thibaud Larchet, he lost a scramble & ended up letting Larchet take his back. I didn’t like how his defense looked. He allowed Larchet to get both hooks in, cement position & get the arm under the neck. It was short time on the clock, so he didn’t have to face much danger. Madsen has 3 submissions, but I wouldn’t say he is very dynamic in his Jiu-Jitsu. I think he gets submission more due to breaking opponents with wrestling pressure. Madsen has good cardio & can go three rounds easily. The cut down to 155 lbs could change that if done incorrectly. If he can drop the weight in a smart fashion he will be a huge LW.
Danilo Belluardo
Age: 25
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: Stabile Fight Team
From: Italy
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 430
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +475
Danilo Belluardo is looking to have a better performance than he did in his UFC debut. He lost by TKO against Joel Alvarez. Danilo looks to be a wrestler. His stand up is very clunky. He stands very tall & his chin stays high. He has solid kicks. He will throw round & front kicks to the body, along with front leg sidekicks. He will throw round & front kicks to the head. He will throw out a jab, but he leaves his chin in the air & it’s very easy to counter. He will leap into overhand rights. His striking game is all to setup takedowns, and he isn’t trying to out strike his opponent over 3 rounds. In this fight, it will be interesting what he wants to do, because his opponent is an Olympic wrestler. I just don’t think he can fight any other way. He has 6 KO/TKOs mostly due to G&P. He has questionable defense & a questionable chin with 4 career KO/TKO losses.
Belluardo is a decent wrestler. He is very aggressive & will look for the takedown right away. He has had fights where he gets takedowns and submits opponents in less than a minute. Belluardo hides his takedown attempts behind his striking well, and I would say blends things together better than Madsen. Belluardo has a solid double leg, he will get in on a body lock trip & dump opponents. He will get in on the body lock, push opponents against the cage, and lean & grind on them. He will try to get a tight waist and take the back from standing. He will land heavy knees to the legs & body. He is good at hanging on opponents & landing punches as opponents try to stand up against the cage. Belluardo stands tall & can be taken down & controlled against the cage himself. He has a decent get-up game and can usually scramble into takedown attempts of his own. I don’t think his grappling is necessarily super high level or dangerous, but he is relentless & tenacious. He isn’t a big submission threat & prefers to control position & wear his opponents out with ground & pound. He has three career submissions & has never been submitted. He has great cardio & pushes a pace.
Madsen is an Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler and is making his UFC debut here. They gave him the co-main event for his debut and the fight takes place in Denmark where he is from. To me, this is a setup fight to get him a win and make a big splash in his debut. Belluardo isn’t very good but he is going to be limited to his striking here since he is fighting a better wrestler. If he doesn’t get a KO, I don’t see him winning this fight. I also don’t want to risk -550 on Madsen though because he doesn’t look like a world-beater, but I do think he wins here.
If you can afford Madsen, then he is in play in all formats. He should look to wrestle here and if he does I think he finishes with GNP. He could also just get the KO on the feet and have the 10-point KD bonus as well. He has one of the higher ceilings on the card and I do want a good amount of exposure to him. I like this whole $9k range though so that will limit how heavy I can go on him, but If I have $9.5k available I will use him. I am also fine making a lineup with him and moving down to another $9k fighter if it lets you move up somewhere else that you like more. Belluardo will be a fade for me though. If you want to take a shot or two on him being very low owned, then I am fine with that since we have seen the cheapest fighter win GPPs a lot recently.
Winner – Mark Madsen via 1st round (T)KO
Jack Hermansson $9,200 vs Jared Cannonier $7,000
Jack Hermansson
Age: 31
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Frontline Academy
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 7-2
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -240
Jack Hermansson is getting a main event close to home after his upset victory of Jacare Souza. Hermansson has won 4 consecutive fights & looks better than ever. Hermansson arguably has the best movement in the entire MW division. Hermansson is extremely light on his feet, very fast in & out, has great forward pressure & lateral movement. Hermansson tends to start a lot of fights by putting pressure on opponents, showing them his movement & speed, hitting & not getting hit. Hermansson has a nasty jab. He will throw really nice one-twos right down the pipe. He has a nasty left hook, and really nice right uppercut. Hermansson will throw most of his shots straight & sharp. When Hermansson gets his jab going he will up the volume & keep it right in opponent’s faces. He has very fluid hand combinations. His pressure along with his volume melts a lot of opponents. Hermansson was able to work behind the jab all day on Souza and stunned him multiple times with uppercuts & straight punch combinations. He was hitting & moving, giving new angles & not allowing Souza to get a beat on him. Hermansson has very fluid kicks. He will throw a lot of oblique & leg kicks. He has nasty front & round kicks to the body. He will throw some round kicks to the head also, but much less. Hermansson has a nasty flying knee he has great timing on. Hermansson can be a little vulnerable on the feet when he gets stationary. He tends to just use a high guard to defend, and opponents are able to dig to the body, and sometimes land uppercuts or overhands around his guard. When Hermansson was knocked out vs Thiago Santos, he was hurt, and backed up in a straight line, which lead to him being unloaded on & finished. Now that Hermansson has the experience of a five-round fight, I expect him to look even better. Hermansson doesn’t throw many strikes with fight ending intentions. He prefers to touch & move and keep the volume high. He does have pop in his punches but finishes most fights on the ground. Hermansson has 11 KO/TKO finishes. He has been finished by strikes just one time.
Jack Hermansson is a strong wrestler with elite skills on the mat. Hermansson proved that in his last match vs Jacare Souza. Hermansson was almost able to submit Souza with his signature guillotine choke. When Hermansson gets the guillotine against most fighters the fight is over. Previously to the Souza fight, he had finished two fights via guillotine in the first round. Hermansson is tall with a long reach for the division & uses that very well in the clinch. He will dig double underhooks & slam knees into opponent’s mid-section. He has nice trip takedowns and will circle to the back from standing position & land suplexes. Most of his takedowns come in space off his movement. His ability to move in & out & land opens opportunities for singles & doubles. Hermansson was able to land several takedowns against Jacare Souza and control him from top position which is easier said than done. Later in the fight we did see Hermansson get denied on a few takedowns & shot some from too far out. When Hermansson does take top position, he is very good. He has great control & devastating ground & pound. Against most fighters he is able to advance position, usually taking the back & finishing the fight with shots. Against Jacare Souza, Hermansson showed the ability to stay safe & active inside Souza’s guard & hold him down for large portions of rounds. If Hermansson is able & willing to do that vs Souza I don’t see many fighters, he wouldn’t be able to do it against. Hermansson has very strong takedown defense & it’s hard to get in on his hips. In one of the few fights he was taken down, he did get submitted by Cezar Ferreira. In this fight, I don’t expect him to deal with any offensive grappling at all from Cannonier. Hermansson has 5 submissions and has been submitted twice. Hermansson’s cardio & volume is elite.
Jared Cannonier
Age: 35
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Alaska
UFC Record: 5-4
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +200
Jared Cannonier is getting his first main event opportunity here. Cannonier is 2-0 since moving down to 185 lbs & is coming off a win over the legendary Anderson Silva. Cannonier is very confident that he can win the title at 185 lbs. Jared Cannonier is a very good striker with big knockout power. he has super-fast hand combinations, especially his jab and straight-right hand. He has a hands down game with incredible head movement and is able to evade punches while coming back with quick, powerful counter punches. He shows a good kicking game as well, but I think he should utilize kicks more once he is more comfortable with takedown defense. He has a great switch head kick and rocked an opponent with a front kick to the face. He has nasty body kicks and his kicks are very fast and powerful. He will demoralize his opponents by walking them down with his hands down, making them miss and countering them, making them shy to throw the rest of the fight. Cannonier is flat-footed & struggles with movement a bit. In this fight, he needs to be very aggressive in closing the distance & not let Hermansson sit on the outside. He has big power and 8 KO/TKO’s in 12 wins. He has a good chin and is willing to take punches to give punches. He has been finished via strikes two times, but those were against massive guys.
Jared Cannonier is not a great wrestler and can get taken down pretty easily. He is stronger in the clinch than defending shots and can land short elbows and has good balance and strength making him hard to take down in that position. He has problems defending single legs, and Glover Teixeira was easily able to take him down continuously with the single leg. When he fought David Branch, he was taken down multiple times in the first round but showed good get-ups against the cage & eventually KO’d Branch. Branch was never really able to cement position & put Cannonier flat off his back. Cannonier isn’t very active off his back. He will just hang out & try to control posture & get the ref to stand it up. He needs to be very good with his takedown defense, because I don’t think he will get-up when he gets taken down by Hermansson. Cannonier has 2 submissions and has never been submitted.
I think this is KO or bust for Cannonier. He does have big power, but I think Hermansson is too good for him to win any way other than a knockout. I think Hermansson looks for takedowns early to tire Cannonier out and take away from his power as the fight goes on. He could get a submission or GNP finish in round 1 as well, but if he makes it out of rounds 1 and 2 I think this fight will be all his. He has more ways to win and his movement should cause problems for Cannonier while on the feet. I like Hermansson to get a finish on the ground in this fight.
Joker is going to be one of my top plays on the slate this week, but this is an all-in fight for me in GPPs. I think we can stack in cash to lock in the win and 100+ points, but I also think going solo on Hermansson is fine as well. With 5-rounds to work with, I don’t see how Joker doesn’t get more than 10x here and I think he has the highest ceiling on the card as well. I think he looks to get the fight to the ground early and unload with the GNP. He could get a lot of advance points as well. Cannonier is also in play because he has 1st round KO potential and I would say him and OSP have the best shots of a round 1 KO in this cheap fighter range. I will have my fair share of him as well, but I am probably going to be around 70/30 for this fight in favor of the Joker and he is a lock for my cash lineup.
Winner – Jack Hermansson via 1st round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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