This week we head to upstate New York for the second road course of the year – the 2.45 mile puzzle known as Watkins Glen. I love road course racing because of the immense challenge it presents drivers who get limited time to perfect the art of going left and right. Thanks to qualifying inspection being the day after qualifying (!?!), this article will be condensed, raw and TYPO FILLED so you can get started on your lineups right away. Lets get right to it. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. First off, let me repost my road course warning.
Road Course Racing
So step one to solving the puzzle we are being presented with this week is understanding how Road Course Racing differs from our typical oval weeks – and yes, it’s more than just turning left and right! The buzzword of the week will no doubt be strategy. This is because the time in takes to get around this course means you can pit at pretty much anytime without going a lap down. This has led to a trend of what is called “running the race backwards” or “trying to cross the finish line with exactly no fuel in your gas tank, in order to minimize your time on pit road.” Every team will have a different strategy to get through this weekend, which means the fastest cars may not find their way to the front based on speed alone.
Another quick note I want to make about road course racing is that not every road course is the same. Infact the two road course we know, Sonoma and Watkins Glen, really couldn’t be more different. Sonoma is all about patience and finesse, whereas Watkins Glen is about aggression and grit. When the media says “that driver is a good road course racer”, we really need to investigate which kind of road course they are good at. Of course there are individuals who are good at both, but there is also people who are better at one than the other. Don’t lean too much on stats from Sonoma when attacking this slate.
There are so so so many strategies you could employ this weekend, but at the end of the day you need to identify one and stick to it. I am attacking this slate like a restrictor plate, meaning I will focus mostly on place differential. Dominator points are going to be so hard to anticipate outside of the first stage, so we turn to the devil we know instead of the devil we don’t.
Top Plays
Joey Logano – Watkins Glen has been rough on Joey that last couple years but lets not abandon him just yet. He starts 21st and while his practice times weren’t great, we know that doesnt always mean much at road courses. His strategy will be on point and should be in the top ten before the end of stage one.
Kyle Busch – Kyle is the best Watkins Glen driver by a pretty wide margin If he doesn’t run into problems, he will compete for a win. He will probably end up in the top two by the end of the first lap, and should get to the point at some point in this race. This is a bit of a risky play because a win is pretty much a necessity, but Kyle Busch is too good to ignore.
Daniel Suarez – Suarez has been a stud at Watkins Glen so far in his career and looks to continue that this weekend. He starts 18th, and should make his way to the top ten pretty easily. His practice speed wasn’t great, but he was getting faster as practice progressed.
Ryan Blaney – This is a pure place differential play. A good car starting 19th is good enough for me. Blaney is a decent road course racer and had pretty good speed in practice. I don’t expect him to compete for a win, but a top 5 isn’t out of the question.
Worth Noting
Chase Elliott pretty much has to win to make the optimal. He isn’t a fade by any means, but he isnt a top play for me. Also, I think Truex is a nice pivot off Busch. I prefer Busch though.
Value Plays
Ryan Newman – Newman isn’t a great Watkins Glen driver, but he starts 25th and that is probably his floor. He should push up into the top 15 at some point, and if the strategy works out right could end up in the top 10.
Alex Bowman – This has been a breakout year for Bowman, and I think that will translate to an improved Watkins Glen performance. Bowman has a great car and should be able to improve on his 17th place starting spot without much issue. I think a top 15 with a handful of fast laps is a likelihood.
David Ragan – Ragan is a decent enough road course driver and has serviceable speed this weekend. He starts 31st and can only really move forward.
Landon Cassill – If you need a punt, this is probably your best option. low.
So there it is folks. Keep an eye on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.