What’s up everyone?! Welcome to The Inside Line: Xfinity Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the Sport Clips Haircuts VFW 200 NASCAR XFINITY Series race at Darlington Raceway. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Tyler Reddick $11,700
Kind of surprising to see Reddick come in priced higher than Hamlin, Blaney and Bell. I believe he is a legit threat to score some fast laps as well as finish inside the top 5 but at this price he needs to dominate. Given the other drivers he has to contend with I just don’t see that happening without the other top guys having issues. I wouldn’t go too heavy on Reddick here but definitely worth a little attention.
Denny Hamlin $11,300
It’s Denny Time! Dude is absolutely on fire right now in the Cup Series and gets to jump into the #18 this week in the Xfinity Series at perhaps his best track. In his last nine Xfinity races here he has FIVE wins and three second place finishes. During those nine races he has led 528 laps or roughly 40%. One important note is that all five wins came from starting from the pole. Hamlin wrecked in practice and will be starting at the rear of the field. His qualifying time will determine where he gets scored for DK purposes.
Dale Earnhardt Jr $10,800
Dale Jr returns for his lone Xfinity race in 2019. He will be driving the #8 for his own JRM team. He was never a real threat in his Cup career at Darlington. His car is really good and he definitely knows how to take care of his tires on the rough Darlington surface. This #8 team has finished top 10 in 15 of 23 races in 2019 with 8 different drivers. I believe he offers top 5 upside but there are numerous drivers I would put ahead of Jr. Hard to pay off this price.
Ryan Blaney $10,500
There is very little statistically that gives confidence in playing Blaney this week. His best career Cup finish here is 13th and he has an average finish of 22nd. He hasn’t races here in Xfinity since 2016 when he finished 7th. The Penske cars haven’t had elite speed this year either. He will likely contend for a top 5 but I would recommend lowering the ownership as there are better plays out there.
Christopher Bell $10,200
Bell qualified 2nd and finished stage one in 2nd place in his lone Darlington start last year. The Gibbs cars are always really good here and he is a top contender for the win. Since we have little statistical data for him here it is important to note that Gibbs has won 6 of the last 9 races here. He was 2nd in both 10 and 15 lap averages in final practice which is massive here at Darlington with long run speed mattering so much.
Justin Allgaier $9,900
Allgaier is averaging a 9th place finish in his 3 races with JRM at Darlington. When I thing of Allgaier I instantly think of a driver who is great on the long run and can take car of his tires and equipment. He was fastest in 10 and 15 lap averages in final practice. I like a 2-3 drivers better in general but Allgaier is definitely in the mix to be a dominator and race winner. Great Gpp and cash play.
Austin Cindric $9,600
Cindric has raced here once and finished dead last after crashing 2 laps into last years race. His team is solid but his lack of race experience is very concerning. He will have to learn on during the race how hard he can push the tires which is never a good thing. Look for a back end top 10 finish. Won’t score many dom points so is completely dependent on place diff.
Cole Custer $9,400
Custer comes in at a discounted rate this week for no logical reason. He has been fantastic on the high speed moderately banked tracked taking wins at Cali, Pocono, Kentucky and Chicago this year. He is also been fantastic on the tracks hardest on tires finishing 2nd at Atlanta and winning at Richmond. He finished 2nd here last season as well. Love Custer this week especially at this price. Top contender for the win and dom points.
John H. Nemechek $9,200
This will be JHN first Darlington race as a driver so lots to learn. He has run right around 10th all year on the intermediate track and that is exactly where he was in 10 lap average speed in practice. His upside is limited so will only be playable with the right place diff.
Michael Annett $9,000
Annett is just a step off skill wise here. He is a top 15 driver which top 10 upside if things break his way with top drivers having issues. If he qualifies bad he is worth taking a shot on place diff but overall not expecting much from him this week.
Chase Briscoe $8,800
Chase is another driver who has never raced on this track but will be driving top equipment. As a driver Chase has tons of ability and I do think he has the adaptability to catch on to things faster than most. We can use his truck win at Homestead as a form of validation but in reality we don’t know exactly what to expect. When he has a clean race he almost always ends up inside the top 8 which is probably what we should expect this week as well.
Noah Gragson $8,600
Gragson has zero experience here and it showed in final practice. He was able to put down the best single lap but that is not necessarily a good thing here. Off of that fast lap he was 14th of 15 cars in 10 lap average. Lap times fall off over a second a lap after 10 laps and for Noah that was almost 2 seconds a lap. He is still a good driver in a good car but I am questioning his ability to keep tires under him on the long run.
Justin Haley $8,400
Yet another guy who has never seen Darlington before. Wasn’t too fast in practice but one impressive thing was his fall off from 5 lap avg to 15 lap average times were fairly solid. Another positive for Haley is his record on the higher speed 1.5-2 mile tacks this season. He has finished inside the top ten in all nine races. My expectation is he finishes somewhere between 7th and 10th just like he has done all year long.
Brandon Jones $8,200
Not surprising that at a drivers track Brandon Jones doesn’t have a very good record. Simply driving for Joe Gibbs means he has a top 10 capable car but his upside would likely be in the 9th to 10th range. If he qualifies poorly he is a decent mid range play but he needs place diff badly with a limited upside.
Garrett Smithley $8,000
Smithley has averaged a 22.67 place finish in 3 races here. That is right in line with where he normally runs and about where he will end up this week as well. If he qualifies 30th or worse I like his place diff potential. Still way over priced in general though.
Ryan Sieg $7,800
Over the last four Darlington races Sieg has an average finish of 17.75. He also has a +13 place differential during that stretch. He currently sits on the playoff bubble so I expect a good clean race from him with just a couple races to go in the regular season. He is also driving much better equipment than in past years and has been a top 10 car almost every intermediate race this year. Look for him around the 10th-12th range. With the right place differential he could be a stellar play for the price.
Josh Williams $7,600
Williams has never been to Darlington before. His team however has with Brandon Brown finishing 18th in the #90 car last season and Labbe finishing 19th in the #36. With the thinner depth in the Xfinity Series this year Williams has at times been a top 15 car. He has also been rather up and down and lacked consistency. He good be good with the right place diff in gpps but I would look to the safer drivers for cash.
Gray Gaulding $7,400
Gaulding has never raced an Xfinity race here but he does have one Cup start so he does have at least a few laps under his belt. Last week marked the first time in 10 races he finished worse than 17th and only the 2nd time all season he has finished worse than 21st. I like Gray to rebound this week and end up finishing right near his season average of 16th. Great cash play and could be a great tourney play if he qualifies even a little bit behind his average finish.
Jeremy Clements $7,100
Clements has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the thinner depth in the Xfinity Series. He has finished top 15 in 10 of the last 11 races this season. He has an outside shot at a top 10 but realistically a 13th to 15th place is expected. Still a great price too.
Stefan Parsons $6,900
Parsons is driving the #99 this week for BJ McLeod. He has never driven here before and only has 2 Xfinity starts in his career. A 12th at Daytona which is nothing to go off of and a 21st at Iowa which was quite a bit better than he actually ran that day. I don’t think the driver is the level needed to score well and the price is way too high. Play only with massive place diff potential.
Alex Labbe $6,800
Labbe is back in the #90 this week. He drove for them full time last year and finished 19th here at Darlington. He is similar to his teammate Williams in terms of upside. I like him to finish inside the top 20 but with an outside shot at a top 15.
Brandon Brown $6,600
Brown finished 18th here last year and 20th the year before that. His car will be a little bit better this year and I think he can finish around the 15th position. His price is really advantageous and he is a great play in all formats.
Stephen Leicht $6,500
Leicht has been around forever so he has the knowledge of how to get around Darlington. His JDM team is roughly a 20th place car that with the right place differential can deliver a solid score. There are several good plays around Leicht in salary many who have much better finishing position upside so while he is a capable play there may be better options out there.
Ray Black Jr $6,400
21st and 25th in his two Darlington races. He wasn’t in last years race here and since 2017 his teams equipment has gotten better at the same time the field has gotten weaker. He is a rather poor qualifier which is wonderful because it means he offers good place differential. I see him finishing in that 17th to 20th place range but does have top 15 upside so if he qualifies in the mid 20s he will end up as a phenomenal low tier play.
BJ McLeod $6,200
BJ has a rather poor track record here with a best finish of 23rd in his four career starts. He is relatively safe though so if he qualifies outside the top 30 he is worth a shot as I expect him to be able to find his way inside the top 25. He is in the #4 car this week but at this point it is hard to tell if this really is the lead car anymore.
Landon Cassill $6,000
Cassill returns to the JDM team this week driving the #15. He is really strong here and can possibly deliver a top 15 this week. Cassill is the perfect example of a driver being able to out drive better cars and secure a better than average finish. His last three races at Darlington all came in JDM cars and he racked up finishes of 14th, 8th and 12th. Really good play especially if he can offer some place diff too.
David Starr $5,900
Starr can be so hit or miss but when he hits it can be really good. Top 25 car that hopefully with reliability issues.
Matt Mills $5,700
Mills will be getting his first action at Darlington this week. He has been really solid this year in certain spots and has done a great job staying out of trouble. He has finished top 20 in his last 3 starts with a +35 place differential as a result. While I don’t think that level of performance should be expected this week he can certainly capture a top 25 with strong place diff. Still a solid score if he does so.
Mike Harmon $5,600
He likely won’t break 30 points but he does qualify towards the very back and rides around often scoring in the mid 20s on DK. More reliable than many priced below him but doubt he can end up in the optimal lineup.
Joey Gase $5,500
Gase has a 26th place average finish here in 5 starts. He can do a little better than that and if he offers good place diff from a poor qualifying effort he can be a solid punt play.
Timmy Hill $5,300
Timmy is back in the #66 after a 7th at Bristol and coming in as a sub at Road America last week. He ran 14 laps in final practice so that should limit concerns of him start and parking but reliability is always an issue with this team. Be cautious with him but this car does have top 20 upside if they can just keep him on the track.
Tommy Joe Martins $5,200
Martins is back in the #13 this week. This car has failed to finish every single race this year. He did appear to be attempting the entire Bristol race in the #13 but considering e failed to do so it is hard to tell. He only ran 6 practice laps and was way off the pace. I would recommend playing it safe and look elsewhere.
Vinnie Miller $5,100
Miller will likely qualify deep, ride around and score 25 DK points. Not too bad at this price and he is much safer than those around him.
JJ Yeley $4,900
Actually driving the #39 this week for Ryan Sieg. Yeley ran 3 laps in practice 1 putting down the 11th fastest lap. I believe he is still a start and park though. Fade.
Chad Finchum $4,800
Driving the #61 which was a number switch from the #42 a few weeks back. Ran plenty of laps in practice so no start and park concerns just reliability concerns much like teammate Timmy Hill. Another driver who can finish top 25. Really good price.
Camden Murphy $4,700
Camden Murphy has sponsorship from the town of Camden, SC. This is not only the perfect sponsor but gives him the ability to run the full race. Finished 24th at Iowa with this team and I believe he can do the same this week. I expect him to qualify poorly offer solid place diff and score in the 25-30 range on DK. I expect him to have low ownership as well. Really decent punt play.
Morgan Shepherd $4,600
Start and Park. Fade