Welcome to The Inside Line: Truck Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the Corrigan Oil 200 NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series race at Michigan International Speedway. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Ross Chastain $11,300
Based on his performance at Pocono Chastain has to be one of the early favorites for this week. Chastain has won four races this year and has clearly set himself ahead of the rest of the Series in terms of performance. I am not a fan of him at this price but I have also learned my lesson on fading Chastain.
Grant Enfinger $11,000
Finished 8th, 8th and 7th in his three races at Michigan. He is a really solid play but I question if he can score a top five let alone score a bunch of dom points to pay off this price tag. If he qualifies poorly or shows blazing speed in practice he is playable. Otherwise I will likely stay away from Enfinger this week.
Brett Moffitt $10,500
My favorite for the win this week. Moffitt has won two of the last three races at Michigan with two different teams. He races smart and is patient which will likely result in him scoring fast laps while riding behind potential leaders instead of leading the race himself. The GMS team produces the fastest trucks in the series and I fully expect Moffitt to be towards the front all race.
Johnny Sauter $10,200
Besides Sauter’s mistakes this year the team simply hasn’t shown the speed. Not really sure why he is still this expensive. Unless he offers position upside that can not be ignored he really doesn’t offer much upside. Not a total fade because he is a great driver but about as close as he can be.
Stewart Friesen $9,900
Friesen will be a strong contender for a top 5 but also for the win. He hasn’t put together the finishes here at Michigan in the past but he certainly has the truck and ability to get it done. I also am a big fan of momentum which Friesen certainly will have after winning last week at Eldora.
Ben Rhodes $9,700
Rhodes has a pair of 6th place finishes here at Michigan and I project him to finish right around this area again this week. He has struggled qualifying in 2019 so if he continues that trend this week he could offer the place differential upside to make him a strong pairing with the dominator. If he starts too far forward I would limit ownership but he is still capable of getting fast laps and finishing towards the front.
Harrison Burton $9,500
Throwing out his Eldora finish, Burton has five top 5s in his last six races. He has clearly cleaned up some of his issues and is putting together complete races and is finding his way at the front more often. He had 15 fast laps at Pocono out of the roughly 50 fast laps that were available. This is a massively good sign heading into this week. I believe he is a dark horse for the win and definitely in shot for the optimal lineup.
Matt Crafton $9,300
Crafton has a strong history here and has led laps in each of the last three races. I don’t believe this team will have the speed to contend for the win but he is a really safe play in general. Top 5 potential but likely finishes in the 6th-8th range. Place differential could make him a great play however if he starts outside the top 10.
Todd Gilliland $9,100
Much like his teammate Burton, Gilliland has had a solid last couple months. He doesn’t posses the same obvious upside as Burton based off what we have seen but he is still driving an elite KBM truck and can score at top 5. He finished 5th after leading 8 laps here last year.
Christian Eckes $8,900
Driving this #51 Eckes finished 4th at Pocono after starting 13th. That is really the only comparison we have for him but it is a strong one. This #51 has been incredibly strong here in the past with Kyle Busch driving and I fully expect top 5 potential again this week. Priced better than every other contemporary he may posses the best value of any of the top drivers this week.
Tyler Ankrum $8,700
Won at Kentucky, Finished 2nd at Pocono. Still too cheap. Ankrum is really coming on strong and is a contender for another top 5 again this week. He has a top notch crew chief in Kevin Manion that is certainly helping things. Big fan of Ankrum this week. The more place diff. he offers the better.
Austin Hill $8,500
Hill has shown good speed on the larger tracks this year and is driving the truck that won here last year. I believe the field is too strong for hi to secure a top 5 but a solid top 10 is definitely possible.
Sheldon Creed $8,300
Creed is coming into a three week stretch where his Crew Chief, Car Chief and Engineer are all suspended for the next three races. How much this will affect things will have to be seen but this truck will show up to the track with speed. How well they manage the weekend and if Creed CAN STOP WRECKING will determine their upside. I believe he can finished somewhere around 5th-8th but trusting him is the hard part.
Tyler Dippel $8,100
The Dippster is as solid as they come. Not likely to score a top 10 but is VERY likely to finish inside the top 15. He is a clear step above every driver below him in price in terms of ability. He is ultra reliable and consistent and is weekly one of my favorite cash plays. If he has any issues in qualifying jump all over Dippel in all formats.
Anthony Alfredo $7,900
Alfredo will most likely end up somewhere between 8th and 12th. Not bad for a driver at $7,900. His value will be completely determined by where he starts.
Spencer Boyd $7,800
Probably can go ahead and mark Boyd down for an 18th place finish. He doesn’t appear to have much ability to break into the top 15. He often qualifies poorly giving him some potential but his overall upside is limited.
Austin Wayne Self $7,600
We have definitely seen more speed from this team in recent weeks. He should finish around 15th but can certainly get close to a top 10 with a couple things going his way. Another driver who we will have to see where he starts to know what he can offer in terms of value.
Jennifer Jo Cobb $7,500
This is getting laughable. Cobb has become a great play on a regular basis simply by sucking at qualifying and riding around. She has broken 30 points in four straight. Her lowest point total in the last ten races is 22. The price is super high but if she can break 30 points again she is certainly playable.
Jordan Anderson $7,400
Anderson is basically a lock to finish top 20 with top 15 upside if things get a little crazy. The problem is he often qualifies and finishes in the same area. If he starts 22nd or worse he can be a great play. Otherwise hard to justify playing him.
Cory Roper $7,200
Roper has done a great job picking which races he runs wisely and always shows up with a fast truck. The only problem with this is he qualifies too high as a result. In races where he starts towards the back he has massive upside. He has broken 40 points in three of five race when starting 20th or worse. Great gpp play if he qualifies poorly.
Gus Dean $7,100
Dean has been one of the worst plays all year. He continues to have issues during the race and struggles to ever have a positive place differential. He technically can finish 15th-18th and if he starts 20th or worse that would result in a great score. Unfortunately those performances are few and far between. One of the riskiest plays there is.
Josh Reaume $6,900
Reamue and this #33 truck have been rather consistent this year. They usually finish top 25 and have even scored a couple top 20s. He is a safe play but has a limited upside. Like Cobb his price has climbed a little more than it should be simply based on their consistency.
Natalie Decker $6,700
When Decker keeps it clean she is actually a very good play. She definitely tore up a lot of equipment early on but things have gotten much better in recent weeks. She has scored 30 points in four of the last six races and one of those races she was taken out. Michigan can be sketchy but I actually don’t hate Decker at this price. She is risky and should NOT be played in cash but GPP she can deliver.
Jesse Iwuji $6,500
Iwuji will be very similar to Cobb and Reaume. He will likely ride around and finish around 25th. With some carnage he could finish higher but on talent and equipment alone he is limited.
Ray Ciccarelli $6,300
Ciccarelli has averaged 34.3 points his last three races. He qualifies poorly but almost always moves forward during the race. Not a bad play here if the circumstances are right.
Bayley Currey $6,200
Currey is driving the #44 for Niece Motorpsorts. This is the team truck of Chastain and posses top 15 potential. Currey hasn’t done much in his career to give comfort that he can produce a good finish but the truck will definitely be capable. Definitely the most finishing position upside of any punt play.
Norm Benning $6,000
Benning continues to deliver solid scores for his price. Not the worst punt play and if this race has a ton of DNFs he could definitely score big.
Daniel Sasnett $5,800
Should be a start and park. Fade.
Camden Murphy $5,600
Should be a start and park. Fade.
Joe Nemechek $5,500
Driving the #8 this week instead of the normal #87. Also has a sponsor listed on the truck. Has failed to finish a race all year but this could be the one. The #8 has attempted the entire race the last couple weeks. Hard to know exactly what their plan will be but might be worth some low ownership if playing multiple lineups.
Codie Rohrbaugh $5,400
Codie has wrecked in three of his four races this year. In the one race he didn’t wreck he started 19th and finished 14th. He can certainly finish top 15 but there is obvious risk here. This price is awesome though. Very good play in the right circumstances.
Trey Hutchens III $5,300
Hutchins has had a tough time so far this year but is actually a better play speed wise then almost all the punts. This price is very enticing and if he qualifies 20th or worse can be a really good play as well. Not normal for the two cheapest options to offer actual viability but that is the case this week. All will depend on how qualifying shakes out.
This will conclude this edition of The Inside Line: Truck Series. Please follow me on twitter @Larkin8 and make sure to join me in our NASCAR talk slack channel for more coverage.