Schnarr’s Super Picks DFS PGA Preview – The Northern Trust

Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr.

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Congrats to multiple DFS Army members on great weeks!

 

Review from last week

 In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel 

$10k an up (Webb Simpson, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Colin Morikawa, Brandt Snedeker)

I wrote up how there is justification for all of these guys and how ownership would likely be the main factor in what I end up doing. As the week went on I remained a big fan of Webb regardless of ownership which was crucial as he ended with the second highest score on the week. Aside from that, the lower expected ownership on Hideki & Spieth led me to both of them, which was a bit of a letdown. I was underweight on both Morikawa and Snedeker in the $5 in an attempt to be overweight on the top three.

Patrick Reed – DK: $9700

I would like to say this was a success with a T22 finish, however with Reed being outscored by virtually everyone priced directly above and below he was not the most cost effective player in this range by any means.

Viktor Hovland – DK: $9500

Hovland was an ownership play for me, my best guess was 15% going into the event which I was more than comfortable to be overweight on. Hovland ended up at 18% in the $5 GPP, but was an essential piece for many as he ended with the third highest fantasy score of the week and turned me into a believer, only a matter of time until he gets the breakthrough win next year.

Low $8K (Dylan Frittelli, Sungjae Im, Byeong Hun An, Scott Piercy, Jason Kokrak)

 My first look had me most interested in Frittelli and An, this remained true throughout the week as it appeared the other three would carry the bulk of the ownership. Unfortunately for me, Frittelli was a bust – however, An turned out a terrific result with the third highest score on the week.

Peter Malnati – DK: $7100

Malnati’s streak of made cuts came to an end with a disappointing week.

 

Overall, this week was a good rebound week for me in GPP’s as I was able to come out profitable after a few weeks of poor performances. Personally, I am hopeing to keep the momentum going in both cash and GPP to finish off the year on a strong note.

 

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Course Preview

 In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.

  • Liberty National is a long 7,350 yard par 71 with bentgrass greens and fairways.
  • We have seen this course a few times over the years, most notably for the Presidents Cup in 2017
  • Josh mentioned the same thing in his article but the course really does test players in just about every way. We see a mix of long, medium and short par threes, fours and fives, which will have players needing to hit multiple different shots to stay in contention.
  • As a result of the course setup, I really think players are gonna need to get it done in all facets approaching the green and will be looking for guys who have been gaining stroked off of the tee, approaching the green and around the green – I think that is the test this week and certain guys won’t necessarily be able to only ride a hot approach game or strong off the tee stats, everything will be needed to be successful.
  • I will also be weighting recent performance a little higher than usual, it’s tough to make obvious compareables and state certain courses are going to correlate to success here so instead I’ll be looking for guys who have been playing consistent golf as of late

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Interesting Plays

In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel 

 $12k Brooks Koepka

Up top we have our first $12k salary in a while with Brooks which is a very steep price to pay for any individual player. I think this makes for an interesting dynamic – with plenty of great options in a loaded field I could see Brooks get a little overlooked simply due to the price point – this can obviously make Brooks viable as you can be well overweight on the field on a guy who can runaway with the tournament.   Upon first look my initial thought is to fade Brooks at this pricepoint, go to other viable players at a lower price and build a more competitive team. I thin $12k is an awful lot to pay for and you almost need Brooks to win and/or come top five while having the winner to have a shot at taking down a GPP at this price.

$10k and up (Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas

The rest of the top end studs this week come priced anywhere between $11400 for McIlroy and $10000 for Justin Thomas. I personally think I will very likely instead be starting teams in this range because of the savings, and likely targeting Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson as the two to be overweight on. DJ has had a tough go putting recently but has been gaining strokes every way and could come in with lower ownership given his recent performances. Rahm on the other hand is coming in hot and I think will likely garner quite a bit of ownership but has also been gaining strokes across the board and is the top value above $10k.

$8800 – Adam Scott

The winner here in 2014, Scott has had an iffy last two appearances including a notable missed cut at the Open Championship. I think this course fits Scott game and he has shown the all around game throughout the year as he’s gaining strokes across the board, just needs to get the putter going.

$8300 – Tony Finau

I hopped onto the Finau train for the Open Championship and am certainly not getting off now. As mentioned and I am sure you are starting to see the trend, Finau is gaining stroked in all three metrics approaching the green and it is looking like he has figured out his putter in the last two appearances.

$7900 – Shane Lowry

I am not hearing much about the guy who ran away with The Open Championship and has been playing great golf the past few months. Absolutely cannot go wrong at the pricepoint either.

$7500 Joaquin Niemann

One of the best values according to our Domination Station. Niemann stood out for me upon first look and I received re-affirmation from our DFS Army tools. I think there’s likelihood for Sungjae Im to also eat up the ownership in this range allowing you to get an underowned player with four top 15’s in his last 6 starts.

 

Cash Game Review

I will end each article going over my double-up cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week

The Team (14.5-11.5) – Current Streak – Draw

Team # 1 – Loss

Patrick Reed – T22

Charles Howell – T22

Lucas Glover – T72

Martin Laird – MC

Kyle Stanley – T13

Peter Malnati – MC

Missed cuts caused the following team no chance at the money ad a 4/6 was not good enough to get it done. Overall, there were solid performances from both CH3 and Kyle Stanley to lead the way but they were not enough to make up for Malnati and Lairds missed cuts as the following team missed the cashline by 39.5 points

Team #2 Win

Viktor Hovland – 4TH

Patrick Reed – T22

Charles Howell –T22

Kyle Stanley – T13

Vaughn Taylor –T39

Nick Taylor – MC

This week I was a big fan of multiple options and I decided to try and minimize my risk by running two different lineups around my core of Patrick Reed, Kyle Stanley and CH3. Luckily, the core were big for me with two performances just inside of the top 20 for the week and Patrick Reed putting up a solid performance. I went with two other sets of three on other guys I liked for the week. In the first instance, this did not work out as we got two missed cuts and a T72 from the next three. In the next instance, this worked out great as Hovland had a terrific performance, Taylor was great for his pricepoint and overall the strong performances were able to make up for Nick Taylor’s missed cut. I was a little lucky as the first team I made and the team I felt more ‘confident’ about for cash game purposes folded and it just so happened to do so in a week where I made two teams. I can’t count this as a win, however I am able to end my losing streak and end up positive on the year in double ups as I likely only have one more cash game in me with reduced fields at the BMW and Tour Championship.

Other DFS Army PGA Golf Tools and Articles

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