Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! As has been the theme lately, we’re back for round two at Bristol, but this time we get to do it under the lights! That’s right, it’s time for the night race at Bristol, which rarely ever disappoints. Get ready for chaos, tempers, and perhaps a haymaker or two on pit road after the race is over. I implore you, if you can only watch one race all season, let it be this one!
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.
WARNING: Remember that this is an impound race, so the field could be shifted around if anybody fails inspection, so keep an eye out for that. I won’t update the article if that happens, rather, I’ll focus on the notes instead. Keep an eye on Slack as well (namely #nascar-news-and-notes), and if you want to discuss anything, come see me in #nillys-garage-nas-mlb.
Bristol Motor Speedway
Though it may be a small track, this is a behemoth of a race for DFS purposes. With 500 laps and several strong drivers starting near the back (possibly more after inspection is over), look for this race to be one of, if not THE, highest scoring race of the entire season. I fully expect to see scores on DraftKings of over 400 here. That’s not to scare anybody, that’s just to say that we need to be very decisive in who we pick, because we need high-ceiling drivers in every price range if we want a shot of taking home anything significant this week. In other words, if you’re stacking a bunch of front-runners and/or expensive non-dominators (without the place differential) here, you’re going to be in for a disappointment.
Lineup construction / correlation
As I sort of just touched on, dominators will be extremely important here, and we’re going to need 2 to 3 of them on DraftKings and 1 to 2 of them on FanDuel. For cash games on both sites I would default to 2, and for GPP you can use more. Also, for GPP, consider a few solo dominator lineups too, as that’s not out of the question. It’s entirely possible that a single driver leads 350-450 laps here, so sprinkle a few lineups like that around (the rest of the lineup should focus on place differential and finishing position).
With so much importance on the high-end, we can go stars & scrubs in all formats. For cash games I would try to avoid the super-punts if at all possible, since we have strong options that aren’t that much more expensive (i.e. Chastain), but for GPP anything goes. You may want to lean more towards a balanced approach for cash, but be absolutely sure that you’re building around high-floor/high-ceiling guys (basically, start with Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson).
Hybrids
Speaking of him, Kyle Busch is once again the play of the day, as he offers by far the highest floor and ceiling on the entire board. A mediocre finish gives him a floor of around 60 DKFP, while his ceiling is well over 200 DKFP if he dominates long enough. Seeing how good he is, especially at short tracks, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him do it tonight. If you’re not using him in cash today, you’re doing this all wrong!
Bowyer and Blaney are next in line, and I love both of them today. I would probably default to Bowyer for cash game purposes due to his starting position, but Blaney is perfectly fine if you land on him. Both have high ceilings and could see 100+ laps led here, so if you’re not using them in cash, be sure to have exposure to them in GPP.
Logano is next, and again, I don’t mind him in cash if you land on him, but he’s not a must-have like Kyle Busch is. Love him in GPP though, as he too has 100+ lead lap potential here.
Finally, Keselowski is last, and while I don’t love him like the others, he’s still in play. He’s not cheap though, so be careful stacking him with Logano since it’ll take them both leading 150+ laps and/or Kyle Busch putting up a major dud for them to share the winning lineup. I think the better move would be to take one or the other and pair them with Kyle Busch and maybe Bowyer or Blaney (Penske mini-stack).
Dominators
Denny gets the pole and is the most likely to grab some early lead laps, so I don’t mind using him in cash there. He should have a strong floor unless he finds trouble or can’t slow down on pit-road. For those reasons you can look at some other options for GPP!
Larson is the primary pivot. If you remember from Atlanta, when he was able to grab the lead he held it for a long time, and I could see him doing that again here. He’s done it twice already, leading 200+ laps in two different races here, and this will be an excellent opportunity for him to do it again.
After that I would rank the pivots in this order; Harvick, Elliott, Kurt, Truex, and then Jones.
Studs
There’s only one that really fit in this week, Bowman, and while he’s not a super-strong play, he’s worth sprinkling around in case he has something for this weekend. He’s starting high and is a bit hit-or-miss here, so he’s definitely GPP only this week.
Value studs
This group starts with Jimmie Johnson and he’s the core play here in all formats. It’s crunch time for him, as he NEEDS some strong finishes or a win to have any hope of making the playoffs, and he knows that this is easily his best chance of doing it. He has a ton of history here and nobody knows this track as well as he does, not even Kyle Busch. He’ll need to really dig deep and bring out vintage Jimmie if he wants to make a run this season, and I think he gets it done today. Starting 30th is fantastic for fantasy purposes, so go ahead and just toss him into whatever cash lineups you’re running today along with Kyle Busch.
For GPP you can eat that chalk or make some pivots, or combine a pivot or two with him. Buescher is the first target, and is the only other one I’d use for cash games. Menard can be too, but unless you’re running multiple ladders or just can’t afford Buescher, try to take him first. For GPP though, Menard is a primary pivot (or you can stack him with either of those two).
After that it’s Suarez/Byron/Newman, then Austin/Stenhouse/Hemric, then DiBenedetto/Almirola.
Value
Chastain starts at the back of the field and offers some decent upside here, so if you’re going low in cash, go here. Try not to go any lower than him there. For GPP you certainly can, but for cash, he opens up plenty of salary.
Preece/Tifft/Ty Dillon are the high-ceiling pivots and I would focus the most on them in this price range for GPP. After that it’s Wallace/Ragan (though they are definitely risky), followed by McDowell/LaJoie (much lower ceilings).
Punts
Cassill and McLeod are probably worth a fade, since they start so high, but the others can be used in GPP if you’re making a very top-heavy lineup and Chastain doesn’t open up enough salary. I don’t think we need to go here in cash games though. Remember, if you’re using a super-punt, the rest of that lineup needs to be full of high-ceiling drivers! Don’t force in a super-punt just to pair them up with one dominator and a bunch of average plays. You need more upside than that!
Stacks
While this isn’t really a track where team stacks can help a ton, I don’t mind some mini-stacks with Hendrick (Johnson plus any one or two of Elliott, Byron, or Bowman…maaaybe all four if you’re feeling really frisky, but they need another dominator) or Penske (Logano or Keselowski to go with Blaney).
Pivots
There are a LOT of great pivots today, so don’t skimp out on them! I’ve listed everybody in the order I like them already, but as far as which groups to look at, I would focus on the value stud/value drivers and dominators first, then look at the hybrids and punts as a secondary option.
Remember that there’s almost always a fair amount of chalk in the winning lineups in NASCAR, so don’t get carried away and make a bunch of lineups full of pivots only. Don’t be afraid to eat some chalk because it only takes one or two well-placed pivots to bump yourself from a big tie to a big prize.
Closing thoughts
Remember that we have 500 laps today so dominators are much more important now than they have been lately. Tonight’s race has more laps than the last three races combined, so don’t forget to build for high upside! I always preach about being able to adapt to the different demands every week, and that holds especially true this time. Also, don’t forget to keep an eye out for any changes that may happen from inspection. Good luck tonight, and I’ll see you all in Slack!