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NASCAR Calming the Chaos 8/11/19 – Michigan round 2

Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos!  We’re back at Michigan this week, which if the last race was any indication, we should be in for another good race (especially by Michigan standards).  Let’s get to it!

As always, if you haven’t already,  be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.

Michigan International Speedway

Since we’ve already been here, I’ll just refer you over to the previous article, which can be found right here.  Ignore the parts about the specific drivers there.  Instead, focus on the construction part and the bit about avoiding the super-punts here.  Those parts are still in effect.

Hybrids

Another race, another day to use Kyle Busch.  Go ahead and just load him up in all formats.  His brother, Kurt, is a strong option too, and you can use him in all formats as well.  I like pairing them up in cash games and GPP alike.

Truex and Denny are most certainly cash safe, but I do prefer them as GPP pivots to the Busch brothers.  If you do want to use them in cash games, I’d recommend fitting them into a secondary ladder or something.  Basically, favor Kyle for cash games before these two, and take the $1,000 savings of Kurt over Denny if you’re looking at either one of them.

For GPP I think we need exposure to all four of them, so go ahead and mix and match them to your heart’s content (or just let the DS do it for you by using the dominator stacking feature on them).

Dominators

Keselowski looks to be the most likely to dominate, especially early on, so he’d be the one I would go to for cash games if you’re using one of these guys there.  He is of course very much in play in GPP too (I like him more there), since he’s capable of leading 50-100 (or more) laps here.

Harvick and Logano are next in line, followed by Blaney then Elliott.

I would look for taking just one of these front-runners as a primary dominator and using a hybrid as a secondary dominator if you’re wanting two of them in a lineup.  However, I don’t hate the idea of using Keselowski plus Logano or Blaney if you want another way to be different in GPP.  For Harvick though, I wouldn’t pair him up with any other front-runner.

Studs

There aren’t a ton of options here, but it’s led by Larson and Jones follows him somewhat closely.  Almirola is in the mix too but his floor/ceiling isn’t nearly as high as the other two.  If you’re going here in cash, go with Larson.  For GPP you can mix around the other two, but favor Jones and his more realistic top-5/10 potential.

Value studs

We have some potential mega-chalk with Austin starting 37th, so you can just default to him in cash games.  Buescher is hot fire here (and everywhere that speed is involved), as well as Newman, so both of them are solid choices in cash games and GPP alike.  You can take any combination of them in cash, even all three if you want, as it’s not hard to do this week.

For GPP we have a few options, and I like them in this order: Menard (more on him below), DiBenedettoStenhouse, then Johnson.

So, what’s up with Menard?!  Well, with how this rules package plays out, it favors the kind of races that he excels at, so it’s a big bump to him, even if he is starting 9th.  I know it seems like a long-shot, and it kind of is, but if he can hang around and finish in the top-10 (which he absolutely is capable of doing), he could realistically find his way into the winning lineup, especially if some of these other value studs/value drivers have some issues.  I’m not saying go crazy and lock him into 150 lineups or anything, but he’s the kind of pivot we need if we want to win a big tournament (very low ownership + a realistic chance of being in the nuts).

Value

I really wanted something to love here, but with how qualifying turned out, this group is fairly weak.

Hemric is the obvious top play here, as he starts dead last and has top-25 upside.  Just plug him into your cash game lineup(s) and move on.

For GPP you can either take that chalk and mix him around with some other value drivers, or you can use them as direct pivots.  PreeceLaJoie, and then Chastain is my order of preference here.

Punts

Like I mentioned earlier, I do not like the super-punts here and I will be fading them all.  There’s a time and a place for them, and it’s not here.

Stacks

For once I like a CGR stack (that’s Larson and Kurt, if you don’t remember…I know, it’s been a while), and of course, any combination of a JGR stack is firmly in play again (Kyle BuschTruexDenny, and Jones).

The budget RCR cars are an easy cash game stack (Austin and Hemric), and you can either eat that chalk in GPP or mix & match them with some pivots.

Finally, while I’m not in love with them, I don’t mind a few mini Penske stacks with Keselowski plus Logano or Blaney.  Don’t try to stack all three of them, but I don’t mind taking two in a few lineups in case they split the majority of lead laps between them.  This is more of a DraftKings approach.  Obviously if you do this, fade the other front-runners in these lineups (Harvick, mainly).  Don’t go crazy, but don’t be afraid to take a few shares of this approach.

Pivots

We live or die by the pivots this week, as there are some super chalky options that have a high chance of being in the winning lineup.  The best way to be different will be to pivot your dominator(s) and value drivers.  After that you can look into pivoting the studs and hybrids.

Closing thoughts

History tends to repeat itself in NASCAR, and I think we’ll see that again this week.  Use the previous Michigan race as a primary research point, especially over past performances by drivers.  It’s a different ballgame now with this new rules package.  Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!