DFS Golf: UpNorth’s PGA Preview – BMW Championship

It’s the second event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club! 

My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!

What a great start to the playoffs! Patrick Reed finally got the win he was trending towards for a few weeks, all-time nice guy Harold Varner III had his best finish ever on tour, and we have guys taking shots at Bryson Dechambeau on twitter for his slow play! Solid week overall, and now the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings move on to the BMW Championship!

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The BMW Championship is hosted at Medinah Country Club this year in Medinah Illinois just outside of Chicago. The top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings tee it up with the top 30 after Sunday moving on to the Tour Championship at East Lake. .

PGA Preview Video:

With Medinah Country Clubs #3 course only hosting one stroke play event in the last 15 years, we don’t have a ton of information and data points to go off in terms of what type of golfer to target, but there are some things that I pulled together in my PGA preview to hopefully give us an idea of what sort of test this golf course will be.

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Course Overview:

  • Medinah Country Club, Medinah, IL
  • Par 72 -7657 yards
  • Greens: Bent Grass
  • Fairways: Bent Grass
  • Rough: Kentucky Blue Grass (4 inches)
  • Designer: Rees Jones Redesign (Tom Bendelow original)
  • Course Record: 63 Harry ’Lighthorse” Cooper (1930 Medinah Open)

Medinah’s #3 course has hosted multiple majors and most recently, the 2012 Ryder cup. 

Previous Winners:

2012 Europe (Ryder Cup)

2006 Tiger Woods (PGA Championship)

1999 Tiger Woods (PGA Championship)

1990 Hale Irwin (US Open

Comparable Courses: Augusta National, Crooked Stick, Muirfield Village, Torrey Pines South

This course is LONG. There are only three courses that they have played in the last few years that are longer, Erin Hills, Corales Golf Club, and Torrey Pines South. That’s pretty crazy when you think about it. And not only is it long, but with the thick rough, tree-lined fairways, and the number of doglegs, players will actually have driver taken out of their hand quite a bit. Which means that you will see lots of long irons into some smallish greens.

With that being the case, being an excellent iron player will be key. While we don’t have approach shot distribution from way back in 2006, I would imagine we will see more shots from 200+ yards than possibly any course on tour. Finding the fairway so you’re hitting those long iron shots from there instead of the rough will be key to hitting greens in regulation. The issue with hitting the fairway though is that you can still be dead due to the overhanging oak trees that peak out into all of these fairways. Driving accuracy will be key so you can get it in the right spot to attack the green.

One thing, that puts the DFS Army VIP’s at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. Check out how that works here!

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Speaking of the greens, not only are they small but they are heavily bunkered. They also have the classic Rees Jones collection areas where balls will be funneled to. Any ball that is offline on the green will end up in these collection areas off the back of the green and it’s really difficult up and down from there for par. Most of these greens also have a big ridge running through the middle that will kick the ball left or right depending on where you land it. This will lead to some long putts that break a ton if you are on the wrong side of that ridge.

The rough is going to be thick. Medinah Country Club’s Director of Golf Marty DeAngelo, had this to say about it earlier this week. “That’s our real protector. It’s thick and it’s very gnarly. If the rough is up 4-plus inches, I would say my guess is probably going to be 15- to 17-under for four days” That puts an even bigger premium on hitting these fairways.

If we look back at 2006, we can see that while hitting fairways was important and you need to be in the top half of the field, the real key is hitting these greens at a high clip. Of the top 10, only Ryan Moore was outside of the top 20 in greens in regulation for the week.

Medinah’s a really exciting test of golf and I’m thrilled that the PGA Tour is heading back here. There will be birdies and we likely see a low score win this, but there are also going to be big scores on holes that will swing this golf tournament multiple times over the course of the tournament.

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Key Stats: 

Key Stats to look for this week – Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Scrambling, Long Par 3 Scoring, and Projected Course Score.

You can find all of these key stats in our DFS Army research station accessible ONLY for our VIPs.

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Beat the Bookie Betting Card:

In this section, I usually provide my betting card for the week but I’ve included it in the video above so be sure to check it out to see who I’m on this week!

Check out the video above for the reasoning on betting these players! I’ll have my FRL, T5/T10/T20 bets up later this week for our DFS Army VIPs!

Our Domination Station Optimizer is ALWAYS improving and recently it went through a big update.

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Final Thoughts: 

As always, there will be tons of ‘narratives’ this week and it’s best to just ignore them, particularly when it comes to FedEx Cup standings. Play good golfers and you’ll be fine. I think the key this week will be to find the best ‘all-around’ golfers and not just guys who get by on one particular skill set. You will hear lots about having to play ‘bombers’ this week but I think that if you put more of a premium on driving accuracy you will not only differentiate yourself in gpp but actually be playing the golfers with the best chance to win.

We will have content for you all through the week at DFS Army. Our research station and domination station optimizer will be updated on Tuesday and I will have my full Chalk Donkey article breaking down all the ownership and GPP strategy for our VIP’s on Wednesday afternoon!

Remember, this is the last few weeks of really big money PGA contests until next year, so while we preach contest selection and bankroll management, don’t be afraid to go a little crazy!

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Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!

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