DFS Golf: Chalk Donkey – Northern Trust – DFS Army

Key Stats this Week:

In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Northern Trust.

Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and former DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?

Value Tab: 

The first thing I look at every week when I open up the  RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.

Patrick Cantlay leads the way here as the best value at only $9200 this week. He’s a great option as he’s been incredibly consistent and has some great winning upside. He’s also likely to be the highest owned player on the slate. I like the pivot to Justin Rose who I actually think is the better play here and will come in under-owned sandwiched between the top guys and the cheap value options like Cantlay and Webb Simpson. 

Even at this price, in the strongest field of the year outside of the majors and the Players, Collin Morikawa still presents a pretty good value. He projects well here (his game really projects well anywhere) and is just a stud I want to get in my lineups.

Another pivot off those chalky two around 9K is Rickie Fowler who seems to always garner some ownership but should be around 1/2 to a 1/3 less owned than them. He’s got a top ten here from 2013 and is coming off a top 10 at the Open Championship. He could be a bit of a victim of recency bias as he hasn’t played in close to a month.

Jim Furyk is maybe my favorite value play here. He’s crushed this course and has been the model of consistency this year. At $7100 you don’t need him to do much either.

Projected DK Score:

Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score) is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.

JT leading the way here, as the likely chalkiest player of the week. The price is so nice though. I think you can fit him in cash if you want and he brings a ton of upside. He’s been so steady and his iron play is arguably the best on tour again. The continued concern is the putter though these smaller greens should help. He is a better bent putter which should help because the last 10 rounds on bermuda have been UGLY.

Dustin Johnson is sandwiched in between Brook sand Rory here and I think makes a really interesting GPP play this week at projected low ownership. Forms’ been meh, and his course history isn’t great, but this is DJ. He hasn’t been priced this low since the 2018 Players. I love him in GPP this week as he has the talent to run away from a field, even one as good as this.

Tommy Fleetwood seems overpriced, but I said that a few weeks ago and he crushed. He’s been playing great golf, but a lot of it is on the back of some good putting. A switch back to bent may be a bit tricky.

A player that’s popped up twice now is Sepp Straka. The Austrian has tons of game, but he’s extremely volatile. He’s a great driver of the ball, and his iron play is impressive. He can also score like crazy. He just can’t putt. And oftentimes that leads to 3 putt bogeys. He’s T31 on tour in average number of 3 putts per round at .64 which is obviously concerning. That being said he seems to have found something the last couple weeks and at this price, he can smash value.

Finally, Sebastian Munoz pops here as well. He’s a par 4 crusher. Anytime we play a par 70/71 he’s going to show up as great value and DK scorer. The concern I have here is that he’s an awful long par 4 scorer. With 5 long par 4’s, and long iron shots into a lot of these greens, I have some qualms about firing him as much as I would like. He’s a fine GPP punt, but not much more.

SG: Approach L25

As we’ve talked about with the smaller greens here at Liberty National, there’s going to be a premium placed on iron play.

This start to Collin Morikawa’s career has been insane. Not only has he already won, but he’s just been incredibly consistent, and not just in his iron play (though that has been his bread and butter). He’s just been great across the board. I think he’ll be popular at this price, and maybe the bubble breaks at some point, but he’s stared down every challenge thus far and killed it.

Did Emiliano Grillo die? Feel like we haven’t heard from him in weeks, and my bankroll is thankful for it! Grillo is a noted solid iron player and while we haven’t heard from in a bit, you could do much worse at $7000. He has some solid results at comparable courses.

Chez Reavie and Kevin Streelman are both solid value options, and while I don’t really want to pay that price for Adam Scott it appears that no one else does either. He was mediocre at the WGC, but at low ownership, I think he’s a solid GPP play.

This is just a disrespectful price for my boy Deki, and you know I’m playing him. That being said, his game does seem a bit ‘off’ the last few weeks.

 FedEx Cup Standing:

This literally doesn’t matter and you shouldn’t let it influence you and your lineup decisions.. The idea that players on the outside of the top 70 with a chance to make it to the next round are more motivated to play well and in fact in some touts eyes, more likely to play well, is the biggest bunch of you know what I’ve ever heard. Making the jump from 120th – 70th isn’t impossible and it happens every year, but players who do it don’t have some sort of ‘extra motivation’ propelling them forward, they just ran into a course that fit their skill set or played well that week.

Last year only 6 guys jumped into the top 70 who were previously outside of it.

I’m not saying you shouldn’t play guys who are outside the top 70, in fact you should because there are quite a few golfers who are excellent course fits down there, but don’t play them because you think they will be ‘extra motivated’ to move on.

Don’t fall into this narrative trap this week. It’s all the Golf Channel will be talking about and it drives me insane.

Other key stats to consider: Fantasy Points Gained, Birdie or Better %,  Double Bogey Avoidance,  SG: Long Par 4, Driving Accuracy %

One thing, that puts us at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. If you aren’t using it to build lineups you’re crazy! Check out how it works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial

First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’.  Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)

Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.

 9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.

8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.

Below 7.5K: >10%  Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.

One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them. 

 

Our Domination Station Optimizer is ALWAYS improving and recently it went through a big update.

Check out our fearless leader Geek breaking down how to use it for PGA!

 

Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?

In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.

It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.

In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.

And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:

Above 9K Chalk

Justin Thomas: DK $10,000/FD $11,400

Projected GPP ownership: 22%-24%

The industry has fallen in love with the perceived ‘value’ of JT at this price this week and it has shot his ownership through the roof. JT and Patrick Cantlay will likely be the most commonly stacked pair this week in GPP’s.

JT rates out as the number fantasy point/round projection for this week as he’s quite the stat darling, my concern with him is the putting. He’s going through a big regression with his putter and it should come back at some point but the question of when is always tough to answer.

The perception of value is also interesting this week, because of how strong the bottom part of this field is. A win from someone under 7k would be surprising, but not as much as it would be on a normal week since many of these guys are already PGA Tour winners.

Ownership pivots are going to be huge this week, and with JT projecting higher owned, I think you can make a pivot to a Justin Rose at half the ownership and get a player with similar upside and similar odds to win. This sort of leverage play is typically what wins players GPP’s.

Above 9K Pivot: 

Dustin Johnson:  DK $10,700/FD $11,900

Projected GPP Ownership: 6%-8%

DJ is at his lowest price since the 2018 players and likely his lowest ownership since the 2017 season.

DJ has obviously been struggling over the last few weeks as you can see from the chart above. Like any golfer he’s going to go through lulls, though this one hasn’t been great, there have been some signs of life with a few positive putting rounds lately in the middle of this slump.

DJ is a world-class golfer. This slump isn’t going to last forever. He’s due positive regression and I want to be on him when that happens, not after it happens. This seems like the perfect spot to jump on him and you don’t even need to have a ton fo him to be double the field. Drop 15%-20% in your GPP lineups this week and you have a ton of leverage on arguably the most naturally talented golfer in the field.

Other highly owned players (over 15%): Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Tommy Fleetwood 

7.5K – 9K Chalk

Tony Finau: DK $8300/FD $10200

Projected GPP Ownership: 19%-22%

Tony has been playing just some great golf lately. The number 14 golfer in the world has shot 14 straight rounds of 71 or better. His game is clearly trending in the right direction.

Nothing has been outstanding, but everything has been solid. He struggles to hit fairways, which while it shouldn’t be a huge issue here, could be one if he is far enough off track. The rough isn’t very penal, but the fescue just off the rough is trouble.

I’d be interested here if he wasn’t going to be so dang popular. I like the way his game is trending and I’ll still probably play him, but this ownership is concerning when I can get players with similar upside, and arguably playing better at half or even 3/4 the ownership.

7.5K – 9K Pivot:

Louis Oosthuizen: DK $7900/FD $9900

Projected GPP Ownership: 3%-6%

Here we go again, another event where Louis is going to be MASSIVELY under-owned, and another event where I get way sucked in. Apparently, I’m the only person in the world who thinks Louie is a good golfer. He’s been under  8% owned 8 times this year, yet he’s produced top 10 DK points in 22% of his tournaments.

Louis has the right sort of game for here. He’s accurate off the tee, a good approach game (though streaky), and someone who is creative around the greens and can get hot with the putter. We saw him do this at the US Open where he put himself in position off the tee, wasn’t outstanding with the irons but good enough, and was hot with the putter and around the greens.

Not only is he a good fit here, and someone I think that has a lot of win equity, but he’s been incredibly consistent. He hasn’t missed a cut since way back at the API in March. Everyone is always afraid of the WD and that keeps his ownership down a few percentage points anyways, but this is just way too low and I’m going to use it as a big leverage spot off the other chalky plays in this range.

Other highly owned players (over 12%): Gary Woodland, Xander Schauffele, Joaquin Niemann, Billy Horschel, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Reed

Below 7.5K

As is usually the case in this price range, there is no real chalk, with Jason Kokrak the likely highest owned down here at around 8%. I have a bunch of good players like Bubba Watson and Kyle Stanley written up in my notes, but here are two ultra low owned guys, I’m interested in.

Nate Lashley: DK $6800/FD $7100

Projected Ownership: 0.5%-2%

Lashley was 20th at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude two weeks ago and is an excellent iron player. He’s been really good at these less than driver courses and does a nice job avoiding big numbers. He’s been really consistent this year with 7 top 30 finishes out of his 16 events. He rates out really well here on the back of his 7th rank for long par 4’s. He’s a guy that is a fantastic pivot off the chalk down here with similar upside.

Denny McCarthy: DK $6600/FD $8000

Projected Ownership: 1%-3% 

Denny popped last week at the Wyndham Championship and is a guy that I think is going to win and win soon. It might not be here during the FedEx Cup playoffs, but maybe in the Fall Swing or early next year. He’s an excellent putter and what is actually exciting is that his iron game, which isn’t great, has been trending in the right direction and improving over the last few weeks. He ranks 17th in projected DK Points per round. If his iron play continues to improve, and he rolls that putter as well as he has been, he could be a sneaky low owned play that sneaks into the top 10/20.

GPP Core:

Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page!

Final Thoughts: 

As always, there will be tons of ‘narratives’ this week and it’s best to just ignore them, particularly when it comes to FedEx Cup standings. Play good golfers and you’ll be fine. I think the key this week will be to find the best ‘all-around’ golfers and not just guys who get by on one particular skill set.

Remember, this is the last few weeks of really big money PGA contests until next year, so while we preach contest selection and bankroll management, don’t be afraid to go a little crazy!

Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!