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DFS Army Starting XI – EPL Game Breakdown & DFS Preview for FanDuel & DraftKings – August 10-11, 2019

Welcome to the DFS Army Soccer Starting XI! This is the place to start your research as we’ll go game-by-game breaking down every match-up. If you’re new to DFS Soccer and want to get a better handle on the basics, watch this introductory video as we get you ready to start cashing in your soccer contests. I also put together a five-step guide to constructing cash game lineups, give it a quick read before heading into head-to-heads and double-ups.

For this week, the game-by-game breakdown is free but DFS Army VIPs get access to coaches notes from both theDFSniper and TreyJ989, complete with player picks, confidence ratings, and in-depth advice for each slate. You also have access to our coaches in VIP Chat in the hour after lineups are released and before lock…you know, crunch time. If you’re not a VIP member, join today and use code SNIPER for 20% off!  DFS Army VIPs have access to all of our tools for all of our sports, so if you’re just getting into soccer, you can always bank on our tools for NFL, NBA, MLB, NASCAR, Golf, and anything else in the DFS lobbies.

One last thing before we get rolling, Follow me on Twitter @theDFSniper


Starting XI Breakdown

Manchester City (-408) @ West Ham (+1058)
Draw (+554) | Total: Over 3.25 (-101)

We start things off with a game that is not on the main slate on either site, but will be very important for the all-day Saturday slates. Manchester City is a massive -386 favorite as they begin their defense of last year’s championship season. They will be a high-powered offense again this season and all of their forwards and play makers will be firmly in play as they should kick-off the campaign with a decisive victory. I don’t want any exposure to West Ham except to their defenders on FanDuel.

MCI 5-Star Plays: Aguero, Sterling, B. Silva, De Bruyne (DK)
MCI 4-Star Plays: De Bruyne (FD), D. Silva
GPP Note: Stack him up, any which way you can on the all-day slate even if they will be chalky. My favorite correlations are De Bruyne/Sterling and Sterling/Aguero but honestly you can’t go wrong with any 2/3 mans of the forwards or midfielders. Get some leverage with the midfielders not listed above.

WHU 5-Star Plays: Diop (FD), Balbuena (FD)
WHU 4-Star Plays: None
GPP Note: It’s not even worth getting cute here for the ownership, stay away.

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Southampton (+178) @ Burnley (+171)
Draw (+228) | Total: Over 2.25 (-111)

This game should have some sneaky upside and value plays for DraftKings but I’m not entirely sure it will score well for FanDuel. There could be a lack of goals but both teams have players that are good periphial scorers (crosses, shots assisted, fouls drawn, etc.). I also kind of disagree with the odds on this game as I think Burnley is going to be really bad this year and Southampton actually looked better at the end of last season, but I’ll tread cautiously with that narrative early in the season.

SOU 5-Star Plays: Ward-Prowse (DK)
SOU 4-Star Plays: Redmond, Bertrand (DK), Ings (FD)
GPP Note: Don’t get crazy because they are still on the road but Ings or another one of the Southampton forwards makes for an interesting GPP play. Definitely not a full stack situation.

BUR 5-Star Plays: None.
BUR 4-Star Plays: Westwood (DK), Lowton (DK) – value
GPP Note: Sure, Chris Wood is cheap enough and could poach a goal here but I’m not going overweight on it and I would probably two-man stack with either Gudmundsson or McNeil.


Everton (+142) @ Crystal Palace (+208)
Draw (+237) | Total: Over 2.25 (-106)

Everton will continue to occupy the territory just below the superpowers of the Premier League, making these types of match-ups especially intriguing. We also have some really interesting fantasy potential here with the set-piece prowess of Gylfi Sigurdsson and the penalty-kick wizard of Luka Milivojevic. The total on this game isn’t especially high but this game will probably be one of my favorite for one-off plays in both cash and GPP.

EVE 5-Star Plays: Digne (DK)
EVE 4-Star Plays: Sigurdsson (DK), Richarlison (GPP)
GPP Note: You can also give Calvert-Lewin a look for GPPs, but I’m not too interested with some of the options left that we still have to talk about.

CRY 5-Star Plays: Milivojevic
CRY 4-Star Plays: Townsend, Zaha
GPP Note: This lineup is one of the most uncertain out there in my mind so keep an eye out for cheap goal scoring value at home when lineups are released Saturday morning.

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Sheffield United (+290) @ Bournemouth (-114)
Draw (+280) | Total: Over 2.5 (-125)

Sheffield United is likely to be the worst team in the Premier League this season and that is evident by the mediocre Bournemouth being a sizable favorite at -114. We also have a decent total and one of the most consistent fantasy scorers from last season in Ryan Fraser on deck. I’ll be targeting the Bournemouth side but outside of Tottenham they should be the most popular side on the slate.

SHU 5-Star Plays: Egan (FD)
SHU 4-Star Plays: Norwood (DK)
GPP Note: First game in the Premier League, new squad, on the road, large underdogs…pass outside of some Norwood one-offs.

BOU 5-Star Plays: Fraser
BOU 4-Star Plays: Wilson
GPP Note: Can definitely mix and match multiple pieces of this side but I’ll be heaviest on Fraser and Wilson, they will be the cheaper alternative to Tottenham.


Brighton (+344) @ Watford (-108)
Draw (+246) | Total: Over 2.25 (-105)

Watford has made quite the surge over the last few years and Brighton will be fighting relegation this season (a fight in which I think they survive). Watford always poses a challenge because their goal scoring is generally quite spread out, though Holebas is always a bright spot at defender on DraftKings. As for Bright, they will always be low owned because of their overall quality but actually aren’t bad fantasy options…usually because they’re cheap.

BRI 5-Star Plays: None
BRI 4-Star Plays: Dunk (FD), March or Gross (DK)
GPP Note: Meh, maybe Glenn Murray as a one-off but I can’t even make him a four-star play.

WAT 5-Star Plays: Holebas (DK), Deeney (GPP)
WAT 4-Star Plays: Pereyra
GPP Note: Can’t go wrong with them in GPPs and I actually like it because they will be lower owned than Bournemouth.

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Aston Villa (+1010) @ Tottenham (-355)
Draw (+482) | Total: Over 2.75 (-115)

Aston Villa is absolutely the best of the newly promoted teams but they get a monumental task to open the season at Tottenham. This is the hammer match for the Saturday slate and is likely to be a blood bath. What’s interesting is that up until last year Tottenham’s star Harry Kane had never scored a goal in August. He’s mega expensive but will be mega chalk, especially on FanDuel. He’s a lock for cash in FanDuel but on DraftKings it’s more of a roster construction issue.

AVL 5-Star Plays: None
AVL 4-Star Plays: Hourihane
GPP Note: Nope, no thanks.

TOT 5-Star Plays: Eriksen, Kane, Moura
TOT 4-Star Plays: Rose (DK)
GPP Note: How much chalk do you want to eat, that’s your call. But I’ll probably play the less popular options in GPPs and get my leverage that way.


Wolves (+250) @ Leicester (+125)
Draw (+227) | Total: Over 2.25 (-107)

On to the Sunday slate with one of the better match ups on the weekend as Wolves look into have a strong sophomore campaign in the Premier League after a stellar freshmen outing. James Maddison will always be in play for Leicester with his monopoly of set pieces. On the Wolves side, they play a formation that is DK friendly for their wing defenders and generate chances from the midfield, though that could be difficult in this game.

WOL 5-Star Plays: None
WOL 4-Star Plays: Doherty (DK), Moutinho (DK)
GPP Note: Don’t hate and they should be low owned but the floors on the forwards are very, very low. Jimenez the best GPP target of the bunch.

LEI 5-Star Plays: Maddison
LEI 4-Star Plays: Peirera (DK)
GPP Note: I think this is going to be my low-owned goal call of the weekend, we start the year with a Vardy-party.

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Arsenal (-130) @ Newcastle (+356)
Draw (+296) | Total: Over 2.75 (+101)

It’s a shame that Newcastle get this matchup because they became one of the sneakier teams to target down the stretch of last season. Arsenal is probably the most frustrating team in the top tier because of their unpredictability in terms of fantasy production. That being said, whoever they play in this one, with the improvements of the off-season, I’ll be heavily interested and invested.

ARS 5-Star Plays: Xhaka (DK), Aubmayeng
ARS 4-Star Plays: Lacazette
GPP Note: Like this Sunday stack quite a bit and mix in Ozil and Mkhitariyan to get there.

NEW 5-Star Plays: None
NEW 4-Star Plays: Ritchie (DK), Almiron (if no Ritchie)
GPP Note: Biggest underdog on the Sunday slate, not for me.


Chelsea (+254) @ Manchester United (+116)
Draw (+232) | Total: Over 2.25 (-120)

This is what I’m talking about! Two of the Big Boys of the Premier League clash on week one. I always take flack for this one but as popular as Manchester United is, from top to bottom they are not a DK cash game friendly team. Obviously they can score and are valuable in GPPs but I think they go over owned in cash because of name recognition. There’s also some turnover here so we need lineups and some game history to get a better feeling on them in 2019-20. Chelsea will also be interesting because Hazard has left and Pulisic has arrived, lots of uncertainity around this squad.

CHE 5-Star Plays: None
CHE 4-Star Plays: Willian, Pulisic (if no Willian), Azpilicueta (DK)
GPP Note: My favorite of the road team stacks…I’m really hoping Willian draws a start here and then I’ll have some Pedro combinations too.

MUN 5-Star Plays: Wan-Bissaka
MUN 4-Star Plays: Rashford, Pogba
GPP Note: Fire up Martial in GPPs too but this is definitely the hardest game to get a feel for and we won’t have lineups before initial lock.

 


Thanks to everyone for reading this free preview and while I’m confident it will help you as you start planning for lineup lock, there is no substitute for our coaching sheets with confidence levels and notes for each players as well as being able to ask our staff questions in VIP chat as lineups are announced. Good luck, I’ll see you in the VIP room…champagne all around…or BOYB.

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