Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version should be ready by around 10:00 am central time.
A look at pitchers
We have quite a few high-ceiling options here today (as noted by all that blue in the KSCORE column), most of which look to be good GPP pivots. For cash games, it looks like we can target the Seattle offense again by going with Verlander as our primary arm. Smyly looks to be a solid SP2 option over on DraftKings, so you could look to those two for cash games today.
Otherwise, we have a lot of good GPP alternatives here; Bieber, Smith, Darvish, Gray, and Syndergaard all look promising. Houser has a surprisingly low carnage rating, as does Chirinos. Lots of ways to go today, so be sure to check the coach’s notes to see who their favorites are!
Offenses to target
I don’t see the chaos stopping there in Minnesota today, so the Twins are among the best looking offenses today. Their opponent has a great matchup too, as Odorizzi hasn’t looked right for a while, so don’t forget about my Royals! The Blue Jays are also worth a look due to them playing the Baltimore bullpen at Camden Yards, as are the Astros with all that red there in the x/wOBA columns for Milone. Again, be sure to check the coach’s notes to see where they’re going.
Main slate
Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll kick things off with the White Sox and Phillies, a game that could very well play to the under. Smyly is in a good spot here to get another solid start under his belt, and Lopez’s surprisingly low carnage rating has me intrigued (he’s often near the bottom when he starts). Smyly is in play in all formats, while I don’t mind using Lopez in GPP.
As for the bats, there’s not much BvP here to go off of, but if you’re using any CWS stacks be sure to include McCann for his. The usual are in play for the Phillies, but I’d be a little cautious with them today considering the low carnage rating of Lopez.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – McCann (BvP), Abreu
GPP note – I’d grab a one-off or mini-stack and get out. Doesn’t look like full CWS stacks are the way to win today
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Hoskins, Hernandez, Segura, Dickerson
GPP note – You can certainly stack here but don’t be surprised if they drop a dud with how Lopez has looked lately and how low his carnage rating is
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
The Blue Jays didn’t go off yesterday, but they did have 12 hits, so that should tell you not to ignore them here just because they didn’t put up 10+ runs. They’re definitely in a good spot to go off here again today. Reid-Foley has held offenses in check so far, and with how Baltimore has struggled against righties, they could be in for a lower scoring game today.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Gurriel, Guerrero, Smoak, Galvis
GPP note – Feel free to go right back to the well here. They could still grab 12 runs here instead of just the 12 hits they had yesterday
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mancini, Villar, Nunez, Santander
GPP note – Their struggles against RHP might lower their ceiling here, and Reid-Foley has done a good job of mitigating damage
Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Indians
We get one of of our studs next, with Bieber taking on the Angels. I’d lean GPP for him as the Angels are resistant to striking out a ton, but the upside is certainly there if things go his way. The Indians are always worth a look, especially at home, and I don’t see Barria shutting them down today.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Trout, Ohtani, Calhoun
GPP note – Tough matchup against a stud they have very little experience against. Stack with caution
Indians 5 star plays – Lindor
Indians 4 star plays – Puig (BvP), Santana, Ramirez, Mercado
GPP note – The strong top of the order is always worth a look, as well as any lefty deep in the order that starts (i.e. Kipnis)
Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays
Our next stud is in this next game, though Smith’s outlook doesn’t look too good from what Vegas thinks is going to happen. Still, he’s shown he has a high ceiling, so don’t forget about him today. Even if he doesn’t go off, he can certainly limit what the Rays can do here, so it’s hard to say I love much from this game for fantasy purposes. There’s practically no BvP in this matchup on either side, too.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Walker,
GPP note – Low implied total against a very consistent pitcher at his ballpark with a lineup full of RvR matchups…pass
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, d’Arnaud
GPP note – Slightly higher implied total, but a much harder matchup. Meh
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves
We get an interesting one here next, one that I think has a good chance of turning into a surprise low-scoring pitcher’s duel (at least for 5-7 innings). You see, Gray has looked pretty darn good this year and struck out 9 when he faced these Braves back in April, and there’s not much BvP for them at all, even though they’ve seen him a fair amount.
Teheran struck out 7 when he faced them in that series, and again, there’s hardly any BvP to speak of. I’m not saying history will repeat itself, but it has a really good chance to, which makes me like the pitchers here and not so much the offenses.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Winker, VanMeter
GPP note – Struggled to do much against Teheran in their last meeting, and he’s looked pretty good/consistent lately. Be cautious here
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna
GPP note – Same as the Reds. They do of course have more talent and the higher ceiling, but Gray has been very good at putting a hard cap on people’s ceilings
New York Mets at Pittsburg Pirates
Syndergaard is up next, and while his strikeouts are down for the season as a whole, he’s started to make some headway against that recently, so look for him today for a potential high-upside option. Musgrove is always a hit-or-miss pitcher, but seeing as he gets to face the Mets on a Sunday, he might be in for one of his better games today. I see this one playing out just like the previous game.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto, McNeil, Cano
GPP note – If you go here, go for some lefties
Pirates5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Bell, Frazier, Reynolds
GPP note – There’s next to nothing for BvP here and Syndergaard looks to be heating up. I’m not in love with any contrarian stacks here
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
We get our cash ace next, who also has a plenty high ceiling for GPP. Definitely get Milone in as much as you can!
Kidding, kidding!! I’m talking about Verlander of course. His offense is in a good spot to go off here as well, so look to Houston for both sides of this one. However, Seattle does have some BvP against Verlander, so I don’t mind some contrarian stacks.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Seager/Beckham (BvP), Narvaez/Vogelbach/Santana (also some BvP)
GPP note – Contrarian stacks are not out of the question here, as there is some BvP and Verlander can give up some homers. Stay away from them in cash though
Astros 5 star plays – Springer, Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Correa, Brantley, Alvarez
GPP note – Stacks are always an option for this loaded team. Favor those righties but don’t neglect the lefties
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
I’ll keep this one short…just play the offenses from this game. No need to get cute here unless you’re looking for some ownership leverage elsewhere.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield/Gordon (BvP), Soler, Dozier
GPP note – Odorizzi has struggled and my Royals know him pretty well. Stack away!
Twins 5 star plays – Cruz (ridiculously hot)
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Sano
GPP note – Let us pray for Keller today (favor Cruz and the lefties)
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Our last game on the main slate will feature two potent offenses, but one of them has to face a pitcher that has figured out how to pitch and strike batters out again. Both offenses are certainly worth a look here, but that 2.45 carnage rating for Darvish makes me a little skeptical on Milwaukee’s ceiling here.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Moustakas, Grandal
GPP note – If you stack against Yu, be sure to target the lefties
Cubs 5 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant
Cubs 4 star plays – Heyward, Baez, Schwarber
GPP note – Houser has been a mixed bag but so has this offense. Feel free to stack away in GPP but favor the lefties + Bryant/Baez and their near-immunity to reverse splits
Late slate(s)
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
We’ll kick off the late-afternoon slates with the Tigers and Rangers, two teams facing lower-end pitching options. In a nutshell, if you’re looking for a Coors alternative, this is a really good option.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Goodrum, Jones, Candelario, Cabrera
GPP note – Decent matchup for a team that is always low-owned. You can use them as a primary stack or combine some of them with a chalkier stack to help get a little different
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Santana, Mazara
GPP note – Attacking Zimmermann with a bunch of lefties is never a bad choice. If they have one of their big games they’ll outscore the more popular Coors offenses
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
Ah, Coors. Not much needs to be said here, especially not when we have two pitchers that have allowed plenty of contact. This one could get ugly fast! Try to get several pieces here for any cash games you might running, and don’t be afraid to eat some chalk here for GPP. You can always grab pieces of a lower-owned offense to be different from the field.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Posey, Solano, Pillar
GPP note – Freeland continues to struggle in 2019 and the Giants love to scrap together a bunch of hits. Yikes
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Murphy, McMahon, Desmond
GPP note – Beede has allowed 20 hits and 4 homers in his last two starts and now has to pitch at Coors. Let us pray for him
St Louis Cardinals at Oakland Athletics
Given the teams playing here, it’s hard to get a good feel for how they might do. You see, both teams are certainly capable of doing some damage, but they seem to randomly check in and check out, and when we have two teams like that facing off, well..it’s hard to say.
What we do know is that there are some decent targets for one-offs and mini-stacks, so that’s how I would approach this one. Otherwise, if you’re feeling bold, stack heavily and hope they outscore Coors and the Rangers.
Cardinals 5 star plays –
Cardinals 4 star plays – Ozuna (BvP), Goldschmidt, Fowler, Edman
GPP note – Ozuna has some good BvP here so don’t worry about that RvR matchup. Goldy can crush anything so don’t worry about it for him, either. Outside of those two, target the lefties
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Semien, Olson, Chapman, Davis
GPP note – There’s hardly any BvP to speak of here and Wainwright has held down this team once already this year. You can go heavy on a stack and hope they have one of their ceiling games, but I don’t love the chances of that happening today
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
After the Diamondbacks blew up last night with their 18 runs, people might be a little reluctant to play Corbin here. That’s great! Hopefully a pitcher with a ceiling as high as his is low-owned, but we’ll see how things go (in other words, I have no problem rolling him out today…but if you’re unsure, you can go somewhere else for cash as long as you have him in GPP).
Clarke has looked better these last couple of games but he’s not made a believer out of me yet. He’s still on call for another blow-up, and after getting stomped last night, I think the Nationals will be after it more today.
Nationals 5 star plays – Rendon
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto, Turner, Eaton
GPP note – Unless Clarke has truly figured something out these last two games, he’s still a prime target and this offense can do some damage in a hurry
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Escobar
GPP note – Very tough matchup and they just blew up last night. I’m leaning towards a fade here but if you think they can keep the momentum going, feel free to go right back to them
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
To wrap up the afternoon slate we have two studs going at it in what looks to be another potential pitcher’s duel on the day. Of course, the LAD lefties are always worth a look, even if only GPP, so don’t be afraid to grab a few of them to go with some chalkier Coors options.
As for the Padres, well…they’ve really cooled off and Maeda has done a decent job keeping them in check for the most part, so I can’t say I’m huge on them today.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer, Renfroe
GPP note – Tough matchup and the Padres have cooled off a lot. Be cautious here
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Bellinger, Pederson, Muncy
GPP note – Tough matchup but the lefties are worth a look if you want a high upside one-off or mini-stack
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
And finally, our showdown game of the day features another Red Sox and Yankees matchup, where the pitchers are anything but safe and the home runs will probably be plentiful. I won’t get too specific here since we’ll have showdown notes later.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez, Bogaerts
GPP note – The righties look to be the main targets here, even Chavis/Vazquez on the lower end
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – LeMahieu, Torres, Judge, Encarnacion (if he starts)
GPP note – There is plenty of BvP (and home runs) against Price, and the Yankees love to hit plenty of them
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!