Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Mike Clevinger – So, Clevinger is the highest-priced pitcher on the slate by a decent margin, but I think he’s worth getting up to here. The rest of the pitchers on the slate are really not in the best of spots and this one could be a ceiling game for Clevinger. He has an elite 36.5% strikeout rate on the season to go along with the Royals 22.1% k rate against righties. The Royals have an implied total of just 3.1 runs here, I like Clevinger in this spot to be your go-to SP1.
- Kyle Gibson – If it’s a day that ends in Y you know I’m going to be streaming a pitcher against the Tigers. This strategy didn’t work out so well with Berrios last night, as the Tigers got to him a bit, but I’ll go right back to the well here. The Tigers offense is just so atrocious right now it’s hard not to. Gibson has a 22.3% strikeout rate on the season to go along with the Tigers 26.3% strikeout rate against righties. The Tigers have an implied run total of just 3.6 here and Gibson should have a great shot at the win bonus with Edwin Jackson on the mound for the Tigers.
- Chase Anderson – Many of you know that I like to get three different price ranges in this section and Anderson will be your cheap option for today. I like his price tag comparable to the field, but if I’m being honest, it is a tough spot against a hard-hitting Dbacks team. He’s coming off of a brutal start against the Nationals in which he scored -19 Draftkings points. Part of that was because he was left out to burn because the bullpen was depleted, but nonetheless, I think he bounces back here. Jordan Lyles took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against this Dbacks team last night. At $6k Anderson doesn’t need to do a whole lot to hit value, but he’s certainly capable of blowing that price tag out of the water.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Washington Nationals (+139) @ Chicago Cubs (-151)
Yet another day game for the Cubs and Nats, this one will feature a matchup of Joe Ross and Jose Quintana. It looks like the wind will be blowing in again and slightly across the field, so it should be a bump to pitching. If I were to attack one side of this game it would probably be the Cubs offense just because Joe Ross really is not good, although he’s been better of late. The Nationals have some great one-off options against the lefty and Anthony Rendon is hard to ignore in this spot if you’re playing the showdown slate. Due to the pricing being much different than the main slate I’ll let the coaches break this one down for you in slack. Also, be sure to check out our Coaches Notes/Player Picks on this game for a more in-depth look on player analysis since the pricing for a showdown slate is much different than the full slate.
-> COACHES NOTES/PLAYER PICKS <-
New York Yankees (+129) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-140)
This matchup is much different than the pitcher’s duel we were expecting last night. CC Sabathia will matchup with Tony Gonsolin as they both try to tame these electric offenses. Gonsolin is giving up a hard contact rate of 56.1% on the season which is out of this planet, I would not be afraid to target these Yankees bats on an early slate. The Dodgers have an implied run total of 5.5 here and it’s hard not to like this elite offense against a pitcher who is well past his prime.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Mike Tauchmann
GPP Note: I like attacking the young Gonsolin here, he’s priced up so I don’t think people will realize he is due for some nice regression.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, AJ Pollock
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Sabathia is not a pitcher that scares me off nowadays, feel free to attack him with this loaded lineup. I’m expecting this game to be a bit of a shootout.
Philadelphia Phillies (-121) @ Miami Marlins (+112)
How many of you stacked this game up last night?! Oh yeah, that’s right… who would’ve expected this game to score 30 runs and the Marlins putting up 19. This was an all-around crazy game and my Vince Velasquez play went straight down the drain. Luckily this is daily fantasy, so we get to try again today! Yamamoto and Eflin are both solid options considering the park factor, but I may wait a day or two before targeting these offenses with pitching just in case this is one of those series like the Brewers and Nationals had last weekend where they were putting up double-digit run totals every night.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Isan Diaz, Jon Berti
GPP Note: If you want to ride the hot train go ahead and hop on, but this will be a wait and see game for me.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Scott Kingery, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Yamamoto has been pretty good this season, but he’s been a little streaky, I don’t hate getting to these Nats bats on an early slate.
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Cincinnati Reds (-108) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+100)
Alex Wood and Trevor Williams will draw the starts today for each side. Just looking at the pitching matchups I can already tell you I won’t be getting too much in this game. Both pitchers have the ability to limit an offense on any given night and the park factor gives them a bump as well. That said, I don’t think I’ll be getting to either pitcher given their prices. This is the ultimate stay away spot for me, there just isn’t anything I love outside of a few one-off bats.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Just the power one-offs here for me, I’m not stacking in this ballpark, as usual.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Starlin Marte
GPP Note: Alex Wood has some talent so I don’t want to go too crazy, but you can play the power one-offs
Tampa Bay Rays (-175) @ Baltimore Orioles (+160)
This game will feature a matchup between John Means and Austin Pruitt as a long reliever. I was on the Means hype train earlier this season when people were stacking against him left and right when he clearly wasn’t terrible and shutting offenses down. However, this has changed, he’s given up at least four runs in two of his last three games and gets a very tough matchup with this Rays team. I will have some Rays bats here that is for sure. I don’t stack the Orioles really just based off the talent in this offense, Pruitt could be an SP2 option if looking to punt.
TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Ji-man Choi
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Eric Sogard, Matt Duffy
GPP Note: The Rays are a great stack in my opinion and will be on my list of teams as a secondary stack. It’s a big slate so they’re not my favorite, but I certainly won’t talk you off of them in this small park against a bad pitcher.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Pruitt makes sense as an SP2 option, so I won’t be getting to the Orioles bats here on a big slate.
Los Angeles Angels (+196) @ Houston Astros (-214)
Wade Miley’s price came down about $2k since his last start when he was WAY overpriced. He gets a matchup with the Angels that I really don’t love on paper. Miley makes sense as a high floor guy, but the ceiling isn’t there for me to want to go too crazy on him. Dillon Peters will start for the Angels and is in for a tough night if I’m being honest. The Astros have an implied run total of 6.1 here and are one of my favorite stacks on the board.
LAA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton
GPP Note: Just the power one-offs here I have a lot of respect for what Miley has been doing in the limiting runs department.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Anyone that cracks this lineup will be in play for me, they are a top stack for me on this slate if you can find a way to get to their expensive salaries.
Atlanta Braves (-101) @ New York Mets (-107)
Max Fried and Zach Wheeler will take the mound here in a pretty good pitching matchup. Both Wheeler and Fried are in play here, although I would prefer Fried’s matchup, as the Braves have an elite offense. I won’t get to a ton of bats here, Fried doesn’t give up any home runs really and Wheeler is good enough to where I will go elsewhere. This game is basically one-offs and pitching for GPPs for me, you can make a case for Fried in cash games if you would like.
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Wheeler has been great this season so I won’t be full stacking the Braves but they always have some great one-off plays, should you land on them.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: I may get to some Max Fried here, so I won’t be stacking up the Mets like I wanted to yesterday. Just the power high upside one-offs for me.
Texas Rangers (+122) @ Chicago White Sox ( -132)
After this game had a decent pitching matchup last night, we will see a combo of Ivan Nova and Kolby Allard here tonight. I really don’t hate getting to Nova here as a punt SP2 option, however, I chose to write up Chase Anderson simply because Nova’s k rate is sub 15% this year. The Rangers are no stranger to striking out though, so they could help even that out. Allard has been good in two of his three starts and makes sense as a mid-range SP2 option as well against this weak White Sox offense.
TEX 5-star plays: Danny Santana, Hunter Pence
4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: I won’t be fully stacking the Rangers but I don’t hate some mini-stack exposure if you’re not on the Ivan Nova train.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: The more I think about it, the more I think I’ll get to some Allard as an SP2. I won’t be getting a whole lot of this Sox offense.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (+113) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-122)
Chase Anderson made my pitchers section and is someone I will look to as a cheap SP2 option to try and jam in some bats. The Dbacks can swing the bats with the best of ’em though, so if you’re using Anderson make sure to get a hedge stack somewhere, I learned that the hard way in his last outing! The Dbacks will run Zac Gallen out there, who I’m still shocked they were able to pry away from the Marlins. Gallen is a great young pitcher, but the Brewers are an elite offense especially when they’re at home, no thank you for Gallen.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar
4-star plays: David Peralta, Christian Walker, Jake Lamb
GPP Note: The Dbacks see a massive park upgrade here, but were really shut down last night. Hopefully, they stay cold as I get to some Anderson here, but there are some nice power options in this lineup.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Ryan Braun, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: I had the Brewers as a tier-one stack last night, the matchup isn’t as great tonight, but I still do like them. I’ll move them into the tier two, but don’t be afraid to get to them here.
Kansas City Royals (+305) @ Cleveland Indians (-340)
Mike Clevinger is probably my favorite pitcher on the slate and I will be getting a lot of him as an SP1. He has a great shot at the win here and double-digit strikeouts, hard not to like him. Glenn Sparkman will start for the Royals and I love the Indians in this spot. They will be up there with the Astros in my first tier of teams to stack. He has given up at least three runs in five of his last six games and is very prone to getting blown up.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: You don’t need to stack against Clevinger in anything other than a hedge.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Yasiel Puig, Carlos Santana, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: The Indians have an implied run total of 6 runs here and are a top stack for me, and are much cheaper and easier to get to than the Astros are.
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Detroit Tigers (+273) @ Minnesota Twins (-303)
Kyle Gibson made my pitchers section, as I continue to stream pitchers against this Tigers offense. It didn’t work out last night with Jose Berrios, but consistency is not a great trait of this Tigers team. The Twins are a top stack as well right up there with the Indians and Astros against Edwin Jackson. Jackson has been better of late, but this Twins team is elite and I want to get to them in bunches.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll have a good amount of Gibson as a pitcher here, no thank you.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: Anyone that cracks this lineup is in play for me, Edwin Jackson is a gas can and the Twins have an implied run total of 6.5 runs which is a slate high.
Colorado Rockies (+161) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-175)
Jack Flaherty shut this Rockies team down last night, as most pitchers do when the Rockies are away from Coors. Dakota Hudson is coming off of a very strong start against the Brewers but I’m willing to look past that. I think people will see his game logs and try to use him as a pitching option, I won’t I can tell you that. He’s given up a 40.3% hard contact rate along with a 4.97 SIERA. I like the Rockies as a GPP stack to get contrarian here. The Cardinals are in a nice spot against Gonzalez with an implied run total of 5.5 here.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: I think the Rockies put some runs up here against Dakota Hudson and I really like them for GPPs
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Gonzalez is not great, feel free to attack this Cardinals team again tonight.
Boston Red Sox (-111) @ San Diego Padres (+102)
Nathan Eovaldi has really not been great this year, he catches a break now that the Padres don’t have Tatis or Reyes in this lineup, but I’m still not looking to get to him. Dinelson Lamet will pitch for the Padres in a rough matchup with this Red Sox offense. This will likely be a stay-away game for me here because I don’t love the park for runs, but hey JD Martinez does… he put up 41 Draftkings points last night.
BOS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I don’t want to stack in this ballpark against a good pitcher in Dinelson Lamet
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Although I don’t like Eovaldi here, this really isn’t a great offensive spot for the Padres.
Toronto Blue Jays (+109) @ Seattle Mariners (-118)
King Felix will make his return to the starting rotation here, in what we can expect to be a limited workload. The Blue Jays aren’t in the worst spot here so I don’t mind them in that same GPP tier as the Rockies. The Jays will send Brock Stewart out there as the likely long-relief option. I don’t hate the spot for him, but I do hate the price tag, so I’ll go elsewhere.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Cavan Biggio, Justin Smoak
GPP Note: I’m not expecting Hernandez to go too deep into this game so if you want to make a mini-stack of the Jays and attack this bullpen I’m all for it for GPPs.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Domingo Santana, Kyle Seager, Austin Nola
GPP Note: I don’t mind getting some Brock Stewart here and would be much higher on him if his price tag wasn’t up, but there are some nice one-off plays from the Mariners here.
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San Francisco Giants (+129) @ Oakland Athletics (-139)
I like Chris Bassitt in this spot a decent amount, however, every time I go to stream a pitcher against this Giants offense I end up getting burned. These Giants have really proven they can hit the ball, however in a similarly big ballpark to their home one, I don’t hate getting to Bassitt here as a pitching option. I certainly won’t be getting to many bats in this game as the Giants send Madison Bumgarner to the mound on the other side. I don’t hate getting to him either on a slate that has limited options on the high-end.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m just getting to pitching in this game, give me some Chris Bassitt
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Khris Davis
GPP Note: I’ll have some Mad Bum interest here too, Khris Davis isn’t the worst punt home run option in the world though.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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