Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Charlie Morton – Morton may be in the safest spot a pitcher could be in all season long. He gets a matchup with the Detroit Tigers who legit have a AAA lineup since trading Nick Castellanos. Morton has been a cash game staple throughout the season and that doesn’t stop here. The Tigers have just a 2.9 implied run total here and a 25.9% strikeout rate. This paired with Morton’s k rate of 30.5% makes him an elite cash game and GPP play on this slate. He’s certainly priced up, but it’s hard to find a better spot for a pitcher, he’s a great option as SP1 on all sites.
- Jon Gray – Gray’s ownership percentage will be interesting on this slate. He is pitching in Coors which is something people try to avoid. However, a matchup with the Marlins can negate many of the positives that Coors brings to the table. The Marlins have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball and have an implied total of 5.2 runs here which is fairly low for a Coors slate. I don’t know that I’ll necessarily get to him in cash games, but I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. Gray has a 23.5% k rate on the season to go along with the Marlins 24.4% rate. If nothing else, he’s an elite GPP option.
- Mike Leake – I always try to provide a cheap option with my third spot, and Leake is really one of the only cheap options I have any interest in here. He gets a matchup with a Giants team that has an implied run total of just 4.1 here. Before being traded to the Diamondbacks Leake had a strikeout rate of 17.4%, which is not great, but for the price, you really can’t complain. The Giants have turned their offense around a bit over the past month or so, but I think Leake can tough this one out and get us some value here at a cheap price tag.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Milwaukee Brewers (+137) @ Washington Nationals (-149)
Patrick Corbin is normally someone we would look to target, but on a 15 game slate and some other higher-priced options, I don’t think we need to take the risk against this Brewers offense that seems to have turned a corner lately. Adrian Houser is coming off of a dominant start against the Rangers in which he struck out 10 batters on his way to 33 Draftkings points. I’ll let the game log watchers chase that outing because I won’t be using him here against this team.
MIL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Ryan Braun
GPP Note: Although I don’t really want to target Patrick Corbin here, I don’t really want to pick on him either. This offense has some decent one-off options strictly because of talent, and ability to hit lefties (Braun), but on a full slate, we can be picky.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Matt Adams
GPP Note: The Nats will make my list of secondary stacks here. They have an implied run total of 5 runs which is a little lower than I was expecting. But Houser really has been solid lately, so I’m not going overboard here.
Cleveland Indians (+137) @ New York Yankees (-148)
This game features two pitchers that have two very different recent forms. Civale has been very good lately, going for at least 19.1 Draftkings points in each of his three starts and sporting a cool 1.00 era. While Tanaka has been scuffling before his last start in which he rebounded with a 28.2 Draftkings outing. But if I’m being honest, both of these teams have high-powered offenses, so I won’t be using either of these pitchers in Yankee stadium.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Yasiel Puig, Oscar Mercado
GPP Note: The Indians are a nice offense and have a ton of upside, but given the size of this slate and the other options, they don’t crack my secondary tier of stacks. However, there are some great one-off power options that maybe you can even make into a mini-stack.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Gio Urshela, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: There are some funky prices on this team at the moment. If I told you preseason that in August Mike Tauchman would be priced $700 more than Aaron Judge at home would you believe me? That said, there are some nice value bats in this dangerous lineup with guys like Judge and Didi. The Yankees will make my secondary tier of stacks.
Chicago Cubs (-129) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+119)
Kyle Hendricks was very close to getting written up in my pitcher’s section, but I decided otherwise. He’s coming off of a terrible start against the Reds which has caused his price to fall $1k. The thing with him is he’s not much of a strikeout pitcher and the Pirates aren’t much of a strikeout team. That said, I won’t talk you off of playing him here he has certainly flashed upside this season. Musgrove has pitched well against the Cubs this season, averaging 18.4 Draftkings points per game in two starts against them. I wasn’t going to stack a team in this ballpark anyway, but this helps confirm that.
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: I don’t mind falling on some one-off power here, but as I said, it’s a 15-game slate we can afford to be picky.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I have zero interest in taking bats against a guy that gives up little hard contact in a big ballpark.
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San Diego Padres (-108) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-100)
Chris Paddack and Vincent Velasquez are another combo that I was close to writing up in my pitcher’s section. Paddack is one of my favorite young pitchers in the game and I respect the talent he brings to the table against an underperforming Phillies offense. Velasquez has pitched well since returning to the starting rotation and the Padres strike out at a 26.1% rate on the season, so I have no issue using either of these guys. The Padres lineup is also very watered down if Tatis and Myers don’t crack the lineup.
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Not a stack I like really at all with Tatis and Myers likely out, but there is some one-off power that I won’t talk you out of getting if you fall on them.
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: I respect Paddack too much to go too crazy here, Harper is my favorite bat on this team as it looks like he is starting to get hot at the right time for this team.
Seattle Mariners (+133) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-147)
It looks like this will be Wade LeBlanc’s spot to get the long relief appearance against Jake Waguespack. The Jays have a fairly high implied run total at 5.5 here which should tell you all you need to know about LeBlanc in this spot. The Jays are absolutely mashing the ball especially the mini-me’s in Bichette, Biggio, and Guerrero. I want to talk myself into getting the Blue Jays into my secondary tier for stacks, so we will see. I also don’t hate taking a flyer on Waguespack against this weak Mariners team in GPPs.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Domingo Santana, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: I actually have some Waguespack interest here, so not a team I will be targeting
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Cavan Biggio, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: The only thing keeping me from putting the Jays in my secondary tier of stacks is the fact that I rarely stack against LeBlanc. However, he’s given up at least 5 earned runs in two of his last three starts.
Baltimore Orioles (+225) @ Boston Red Sox (-247)
The fact that Rick Porcello and the Red Sox are -247 favorites here should tell you everything you need to know about this Red Sox offense in this spot. They have an implied run total of 7.5 runs against Aaron Brooks and that horrid Orioles bullpen. The Red Sox are a top stack on the slate. I don’t hate getting to Porcello here, but the Orioles have a 4.6 implied run total which isn’t all that low considering the talent on this team.
BAL 5-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Renato Nunez
GPP Note: I won’t be stacking this team, but one-off power is something that will be on my radar here against Rick Porcello
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Anyone that cracks this lineup will be in play for me, they make my tier one of stacks and maybe my favorite offense on the slate. The only issue is the prices on these guys, they are hard to get to given the limited amount of cheap pitching we have on this slate.
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St. Louis Cardinals (+134) @ Cincinnati Reds (-145)
Adam Wainwright will draw the start against Luis Castillo here. Castillo is a very solid pitching option for this slate, he’s not too terribly expensive and comes with a good amount of upside against this Cardinals team with an implied total of just 4.1 runs. I won’t be getting to any Wainwright here, this ballpark is susceptible to the long ball and I just don’t trust his ability to miss bats.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Luis Castillo is a true ace in this league, I don’t feel the need to attack him here.
CIN 5-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Wainwright is averaging 5 Draftkings points per game in two starts against this team this season, they’re in a similar tier as the Nationals for me.
Detroit Tigers (+262) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-290)
I wrote up Charlie Morton in my pitcher’s section and he is my top pitcher on this slate, but it comes at a price. If you want to play Tigers bats here, please DM me and I will send you my username so we can head-to-head. The Rays aren’t in the worst spot here against Daniel Norris who four runs and at least two home runs in two straight games.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: You’re better off just mailing me your money
TBR 5-star plays: Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Eric Sogard, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Similar to the Nats and Reds for me, not my favorite stack, but also not the worst.
Los Angeles Dodgers (+100) @ Atlanta Braves (-109)
This game features two very elite offenses and two pitchers who are capable of shutting teams down. Maeda is coming off a 30 Draftkings point outing against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Soroka is coming off of a 25 Draftking point game against the Marlins. Both teams have an implied run total of 5 runs here, so I think I’ll leave these pitchers for GPP only. Both offenses are GPP stacks as well. This is one of those cases where I’m not necessarily targeting stacks or pitchers in this one.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Justin Turner
GPP Note: This is one of the best offenses in the league so it’s hard to just rule them out. That said, they are strictly a GPP stack for me against Soroka here.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Maeda is giving up a hard contact percentage of just 30.2% on the season but this team is full of power, Donaldson is smoking hot since the break if you’re looking for a one-off.
Minnesota Twins (-103) @ Texas Rangers (-106)
This is another game where you might suspect to see high totals, but it features two very quality pitchers. Mike Minor just shut down a Brewers team going for 41 Draftkings points in the process. While Jake Odorizzi has gone for at least 20 Draftkings points in three straight. First pitch will be around 100 degrees in this one, so the ball will be flying if these offenses can make contact. Make sure to check the Weather Station on this one.
MIN 5-star plays: Mitch Garver (DK), Miguel Sano
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Mike Minor is extremely tough, but this offense is elite and can hit home runs with the best of ’em. This is another GPP stack for me, Minor is just too tough to go too wild on.
TEX 5-star plays: Danny Santana
4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: Odorizzi is tough as well and the Rangers strike out a lot so I will likely have some interest in him here. I won’t get to a whole lot of Rangers here.
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New York Mets (-183) @ Kansas City Royals (+168)
I like Noah Syndergaard quite a bit here if you don’t want to go all the way up to Morton he may be your guy. Syndergaard has limited hard contact to a slate low 28.3% on the season and has pitched very well since the all-star break. He gets a nice matchup here against a Royals team that has just a 4.1 run implied total. I will have exactly zero interest in Mike Montgomery here, especially with the Mets getting 23 hits last night. The Mets will make my tier two of stacks with an implied run total of 5.6 runs here.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, Ahmed Rosario, JD Davis
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Wilson Ramos (DK)
GPP Note: Mike Montgomery is coming off of a massive 41 point Draftkings outing in his last game, but this was against that Tigers team we will be attacking with pitchers. I’m hoping that game keeps ownership down because I like the Mets a good amount here. As I said, they’ll be in my secondary stacks.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like Noah Syndergaard a good amount here and will likely be my second option to Charlie Morton on this slate.
Miami Marlins (+180) @ Colorado Rockies (-196)
I wrote up Jon Gray in my pitcher’s section and am hoping that he goes under-owned since this game is in Coors. Targeting pitchers in Coors is rarely profitable but with Gray against this bad Marlins offense, I think we can certainly look here. As for the Rockies, they have an implied run total of 7.4 runs here and are right up there with the Red Sox as my favorite stack on the slate.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Isan Diaz, Starlin Castro, Lewis Brinson
GPP Note: There’s some good value here especially with this game being in Coors, I don’t mind a hedge stack if you’re going heavy on Gray.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: They’re expensive, but they rank in my tier one of stacks right up there with the Red Sox if you can afford to get to them.
San Franciso Giants (+117) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-126)
Mike Leake made my write up for the pitcher’s column and it is more of a pricing play than anything. I like to get a cheap pitcher in there to help free up some bats and the Giants are a good team to stream pitchers against, although they have been hot as of late. Jeff Samardzija has pitched well as of late and this Dbacks team has an implied total of 4.5 runs here. I likely won’t have a ton of interest in this game outside of Mike Leake and some one-offs.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt, Scooter Gennett
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I like Mike Leake as a pitching option.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta
GPP Note: Just one-offs here as well, pretty much a stay-away game for me
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Houston Astros (-195) @ Oakland Athletics (+179)
Tanner Roark has scored 21 Draftkings points in two straight games for his new team but will run into a buzz saw in the Astros here. The Astros have one of the best overall teams in the league and their offense is very scary. I won’t be targeting Roark here because of this. The Astros are a secondary stack for me simply due to this ballpark, if this was being played in Houston I would be all over them, but this ballpark is just not great for putting up runs consistently. Justin Verlander is an elite option every time he takes the mound, however, give me Charlie Morton at a cheaper price tag.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: They are a secondary stack for me and are dangerous 1-9 of this order, a bit cheaper being away from home as well.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: You don’t need to be playing bats against Justin Verlander on this slate.
Chicago White Sox (+114) @ Los Angeles Angels (-124)
Lucas Giolito has pitched very well over his last three games and gets an Angeles team that has an implied total of 4.5 runs here. Giolito is priced a bit awkward for me, I would rather find the extra $600 for Morton or pay down further for Syndergaard. That said, I likely won’t fall on him too much. You can make a case for making Patrick Sandoval your SP2 in this spot, but I think I’ll go elsewhere I won’t talk you off of it though.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I don’t love anyone in this offense
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: I respect the heck out of Giolito, but Mike Trout is an elite play against most pitchers. That said, Giolito will keep me from stacking the Angels.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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