Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Eduardo Rodriguez– I’m usually not a big E-Rod guy, but this is a spot he has performed will in this season. In two starts against the Orioles on the year, he is averaging 25.4 Draftkings points per game. The Orioles have an implied run total of just 3.8 here and have a strikeout rate of 25.9% on the season. Rodriguez challenges that strikeout rate with a 23.2% k rate of his own. Strikeouts are king in DFS, so this is a spot I would like to attack, he also is a massive favorite at -308 giving him a great shot at earning the win bonus.
- Ryan Yarbrough – Streaming pitchers against Detroit is something I have done all season and I won’t stop now. The Tigers have an implied run total of just 3.1 runs here. They found a way to get a win against Charlie Morton last night, but Morton still managed to finish with 33.25 Draftkings points, which you will take all day long. The Tigers have a 25.3% k rate against lefties on the season to go along with Yarbrough’s 20.4% strikeout rate. He’s a smidge cheaper than E-Rod, so it really will come down to taste if deciding between the two, however playing them both isn’t out of the question.
- German Marquez – I was all over Jon Gray last night and he ended with 33 Draftkings points over 8 innings pitched. I’ll go right back to the Coors pitching well here and summon German Marquez. This spot may be a little higher owned than Gray was just because of Gray’s dominance last night, but the Marlins are not good. They have an implied run total of 4.5 and you rarely see this under 5 for a team in Coors. They have a strikeout rate of 28% against right-handed pitching this season, 28%! Marquez matches that with a 24.2% k rate of his own, this is a great spot for Marquez.
- Honorable mentions – Jordan Lyles, Trent Thornton, Logan Webb,
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Full Count Breakdown:
Cleveland Indians (+160) @ New York Yankees (-174)
This is a tough matchup for two pitchers that have really performed well this season for their given talents. James Paxton matches up with a Cleveland team that has just a 4.3 implied run total which is very low for the recent form of this team. That said, there are better options on a slate full of great pitchers. I won’t be getting to Plesac here either, the Yankees have one of the best offenses in baseball and can do serious damage in such a small ballpark.
CLE 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: The Indians offense has a whole new look to it with Reyes and Puig in there, but I will wait for a better spot than against James Paxton who has great stuff.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Gio Urshela, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Aaron Judge is officially under $4k, sound the alarms! He will continue to be highly owned as long as he is cheap, but he just is not right at the moment now. With an implied total of 5.8 runs, they are a top stack on the early slate and a secondary stack on the main slate.
Chicago Cubs (-142) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+131)
Happy Jon Lester day! Many of you know that I believe Jon Lester is one of the biggest frauds in the big leagues. He has a hard contact rate of 39.7% this season and is a guy I love to target with offenses at low ownership. The Pirates aren’t a big strikeout team at just 18% and have an implied run total of 4.8 runs. Lester has given up a combined 17 earned runs over his last three starts, give me the Pirates as a GPP stack here! Joe Musgrove shut down this Cubs team last night, but I won’t be getting to Steven Brault here, just not as talented as Musgrove.
CHC 5-star plays: Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Nome
GPP Note: The Cubs are a great early slate stack and will be right up there with the Yankees in terms of priority for me.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell, Starlin Marte, Kevin Newman
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Elias Diaz (DK)
GPP Note: The Pirates are my favorite GPP stack on the slate, not only do they get the fraud in Jon Lester but the Cubs bullpen has been putrid as of late. Stack ’em up!
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Seattle Mariners (+147) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-159)
I put Trent Thornton in my honorable mentions for pitching, as he gets a great matchup with a bad Mariners team here. Thornton just feels too cheap and makes a great SP2 option. The Jays will draw a matchup with Erik Swanson who certainly does not scare me, they make for a decent stack given the way their offense has been swinging the bats. I won’t get too much of the Mariners here, their offense really isn’t that great.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Domingo Santana, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Thornton as a pitcher than the Mariners as a stack.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Cavan Biggio, Randal Grichuk, Justin Smoak
GPP Note: They have an implied run total of 5.9 here which is a high on an early slate that features the Cubs and Yankees, they are a great play.
Houston Astros (-121) @ Oakland Athletics (+122)
Rogelio Armenteros will draw the start for the Astros here and has a sun two era on the season. However, he is priced up to a point where I would rather get Rodriguez, Marquez, or Yarbrough on the main slate and just pay up for offense on the early slate. Chris Bassitt will take the mound for the A’s and given his talent and the ballpark I will actually stay away from an Astros stack, not a lot of interest in Bassitt however.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Bassitt is a solid pitcher, but this offense still has great pieces in it, so a full fade isn’t adviced, but there are better stacks on this slate.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Similar to the Astros, there are better teams to attack on this slate.
Detroit Tigers (+267) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-296)
I had a ton of interest in Charlie Morton last night and will be going right back to the well with Yarbrough tonight. I wrote him up in the pitcher’s column at the beginning of the article, so give it a read if you skipped over it! Jordan Zimmerman seems to be back in our lives and is a guy I love stacking against, especially with how bad this Tigers bullpen is. The Rays have a 5.5 implied run total and is a team that I will have some interest in on an early slate.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: This offense is simply not good, give me some Yarbrough.
TBR 5-star plays: Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Eric Sogard, Ji-Man Choi, Jesus Aguilar, Kevin Kiermaier
GPP Note: I love stacking against Jordan Zimmerman, if you’re playing one of these funky early slates, I like getting to the Rays.
St. Louis Cardinals (-116) @ Cincinnati Reds (+107)
DeSclafani was very close to making my honorable mention list at the beginning of the article, but I’m thinking the Cardinals will roll out at least four lefties and that is his weakness. If the Cards end up rolling out three or fewer lefties, count me in on DeSclafani. Mikolas is a guy I rarely use in DFS and a guy I rarely stack against, this game is close to a stay-away game for me.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: This offense exploded last night, so if you want to ride the hot train, all aboard!
CIN 5-star plays: Aristides Aquino
4-star plays: Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Probably the only guy I’ll get to here is Aquino who has 10 home runs in his 15 big league games.
Milwaukee Brewers (+115) @ Washington Nationals (-125)
Two hopefull playoff teams matchup here with a pitchers duel of Jordan Lyles and Anibal Sanchez, yes I said playoff teams. Lyles has pitched extremely well for the Brewers since being traded over and has a 1.59 era with them this season. Anibal Sanchez isn’t a guy that I will get to here, this Brewers offense is scary against right-handed pitching. In terms of stacks, the Brewers will make at least my tier two because they are far too cheap.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Trent Grisham
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: The Brewers are wayyyyyyyy too cheap for this spot, the Nats have a brutal bullpen and Anibal Sanchez isn’t a guy that I’m afraid of. Give me some of the Brewers here.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Matt Adams
GPP Note: The Nats likely won’t make my list of stacks for the main slate simply because of what I’m seeing from Jordan Lyles. He has been very good since coming over and Josh Hader should be available tonight, yes he’s been bad but I’m not going here.
San Diego Padres (+102) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-110)
This game kicks off the main slate with a matchup between Dinelson Lamet and Zach Eflin. I wanted to write up Eflin in my honorable mentions, but he’s just not stretched out and hasn’t thrown more than 30 pitches in four straight games. Lamet isn’t really a guy I want to get to here either, there are three other guys priced cheaper than him that I like quite a bit more.
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: This offense loses a lot of its firepower with Tatis and Myers being out of it, there are better spots on the main slate, trust me.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Bryce Harper is scorching hot, so I can see getting to him if you land on him but otherwise there are better stacks on this slate. I have respect for Lamet’s talent.
Baltimore Orioles (+278) @ Boston Red Sox (-308)
Eduardo Rodriguez is someone that I wrote up in my pitcher’s section and is a guy that I’ll get to here. He’s pitched well against the Orioles this season and is one of the better bets to get the win on this slate. The Sox will match up with Asher Wojciechowski (this name sucks to spell, so he will be Woj from here on out!). They don’t have quite the implied total that they had last night, but the Red Sox are still a tier-one stack if you can find the money for them.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Eduardo Rodriguez is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate, no thank you.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Anyone that cracks this lineup will be in play for me, they make my tier one of stacks and maybe my favorite offense on the slate. The only issue is the prices on these guys, they are hard to get to given the limited amount of cheap pitching we have on this slate.
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New York Mets (-204) @ Kansas City Royals (+186)
Jacob deGrom will draw his turn in the rotation against a boom-or-bust offense in the Royals. I don’t think it’s necessary to pay all the way up for deGrom on this slate given the mid-range options, but I will not talk you out of it, this is a nice spot for deGrom. The Mets won’t make my list of stacks either since Junis is in good form as of late, so really a stay-away game outside of deGrom for me.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Ahmed Rosario, JD Davis
GPP Note: Junis has pitched well, you can find a better option on this slate.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: deGrom is one of the best pitches in the league, I won’t be getting to the Royals here.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-148) @ Atlanta Braves (+136)
Ryu matches up with Folty here in a game that features a surprising 10.5 total. Ryu has been lights out this season, but the Braves have an elite offense, so I will go elsewhere on this slate. The Dodgers will be in the same tier as the Brewers for me in a matchup with Mike Foltynewicz who has given up a 41.6% hard contact rate on the season. As good as the Braves offense is, the Dodgers are better, I like them here.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Justin Turner, Will Smith
GPP Note: As I said, the Dodgers will be in that tier two stack for me along with the Brewers and just under the Red Sox.
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: I’m not stacking against Ryu, but there are some great power one-off options on this team in this ballpark.
Minnesota Twins (-153) @ Texas Rangers (+141)
Jose Berrios is a guy that I wanted to write up in my pitcher’s section but just didn’t make the cut. His strikeout rate has come down this season and gets this Rangers team at home which is a launchpad for home runs. Berrios is a better GPP option than cash considering the other options on this slate. The Twins are a tier-one stack with the Red Sox for me, they have an implied run total of 6.3 against Ariel Jurado. Tough not to like this team right now.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, CJ Cron, Mitch Garver (DK)
GPP Note: Anyone that cracks this lineup will be in my player pool, this is an elite spot for this elite offense. Sign me up.
TEX 5-star plays: Danny Santana
4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: Berrios is a guy that I’ll get some exposure to here, so I’m not going wild here.
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Miami Marlins (+237) @ Colorado Rockies (-261)
I was all over Jon Gray last night, as I mentioned, and am going right back to the well with German Marquez here. I love him in this spot, at his price, this Marlins team just is not good. The Rockies have an implied run total of 7.6 runs here which is a slate high. They are probably my number one stack here and a team that I like just a little more than the Twins. If I’m ranking my tier one of stacks it would be Rockies, Twins, Red Sox.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Isan Diaz, Starlin Castro, Lewis Brinson
GPP Note: I’ll have a bunch of Marquez here, but there are some great value options that help fill your lineup out.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: They’re expensive, but they rank in my tier one of stacks right up there with the Red Sox and Twins, they’re expensive, but for good reason.
San Franciso Giants (+111) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-120)
Logan Webb is a guy that I’ll have some interest in here, this will be his major league debut in a tough matchup with the Dbacks. In the minors this season he had a 9.8 strikeout per 9 and a sub 3.00 era. I won’t be going all in here given the matchup, but as a cheap SP2, I do like him. Taylor Clarke is a certified gas can, so if you want to get to a Giants stack here I won’t talk you off of it, they would make my tier three if I had one.
SFG 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt, Scooter Gennett
4-star plays: Alex Dickerson, Kevin Pillar
GPP Note: Taylor Clarke es no bueno, get to the Giants here with confidence if you don’t like the other teams on this slate.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I think I’ll be getting to some Logan Webb here.
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Chicago White Sox (+147) @ Los Angeles Angels (-160)
I liked Patrick Sandoval last night and it didn’t work out to great for me, tonight the White Sox will have to deal with Jose Suarez who is BAD. He has given up at least 4 earned runs in each of his last three outings making the White Sox a solid GPP stack for me. The Angels have a big run total here at 5.7 and will be in the same tier as the Brewers and Dodgers for me.
CHW 5-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez
4-star plays: Leury Garcia, Welington Castillo
GPP Note: The White Sox make sense as a GPP stack against Suarez
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, David Fletcher
GPP Note: As I mentioned, the Angels are in my tier two of stacks with the Brewers and Dodgers. There are a number of solid plays on this team.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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