BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 14 Location – Montevideo, Uruguay
Thanks for purchasing my UFC on ESPN+ 14 breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Uruguay. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $130k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Polyana Viana $8,600 vs Veronica Macedo $7,600
Polyana Viana
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Tata Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 45
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +110
Polyana Viana is making her UFC debut at flyweight after 3 fights at strawweight. She has lost her last two fights as a big favorite & badly needs a victory here. She is stepping in on short notice replacing Rachael Ostavich. Viana is a long fighter with a 3” reach advantage. On the feet she likes to circle & use her reach. Her hands are not very good. She has a decent one-two & will come forward with straight punch combos. Her best weapon on the feet is her left kick. She has a nice left round kick to the body. She will throw front kicks to the body also. She doesn’t really ever go high with her kicks. The last time Viana fought a southpaw in J.J. Aldrich, she really struggled to defend the right hand. Viana holds her hands low, especially her lead hand, and has her chin right in the air. She has gotten hit with some big shots in her last two fights. Viana does have good heart & a strong chin. When she gets hit she will try to walk opponents down & get it back. She did get dropped hard by a big right hand in her last fight with Hannah Cifers. Viana has 4 KO/TKO’s mostly on the ground. She has never been finished.
Polyana Viana is a Jiu-Jitsu world champion. She is dangerous with submissions, mostly from top position. Viana isn’t the best wrestler. She looks to have some ok judo throws & trips in the clinch. She hit a double leg & circled to the back of J.J. Aldrich but was reversed. Viana was able to get a rear naked choke in her UFC debut, but her Jiu-Jitsu hasn’t been all that impressive to me. She has lost dominant positions & shown really nothing off her back. She had both J.J. Aldrich & Hannah Cifers in her full guard & didn’t do much in terms of attacking. She will land strikes from her guard & control posture but doesn’t have the best submission attacks. She will attack with armbars and went for a leg lock vs Cifers. Viana does have a couple armbar wins on her record prior to joining the UFC. Viana has 6 submissions & has finished all 10 of her pro wins. Viana is 0-3 in decisions. Viana has questionable cardio & slows down in round 3. Viana needs to go forward & get this fight to the ground. She is much slower with her feet & hands & I feel she will get lit up on the feet in this fight. Viana has to time the entry of Macedo, get in the clinch & take top position. Macedo has a tendency to give her back & a rear naked choke will probably be what Viana is looking for to finish the fight.
Veronica Macedo
Age: 23
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 64”
Gym: MMA Factory
From: Venezuela
UFC Record: 0-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 1-3-1
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -130
Veronica Macedo needs a win to keep her job here. She has started her UFC career 0-3, but at 23 years old she still has time to turn it around. Macedo has fought very tough competition, and this is going to be someone more on her level. She should be the bigger fighter & is more accustomed to fighting at 125 lbs. She also had the benefit of a full training camp while Viana didn’t, so it’s truly put up or shut up time for Macedo. I actually feel Macedo still has potential. She has great calmness & composure in the octagon along with a killer instinct. She starts fast in fights & usually wins the early striking exchanges. Macedo is a southpaw karate & taekwondo practitioner. She has a wide stance, is very light on her feet, & quick in & out. She doesn’t throw jabs or feints much & really relies on her speed. She will circle & close the distance with fast, straight punch combinations. She has a nice straight-left, right hook combination. She will trade in the pocket & has power. She has very good kicks. She will throw kicks with both legs. She has solid leg kicks, and front kicks to the body & head with both legs. She will throw front leg sidekicks. Her round kicks with her rear leg are her most dangerous strikes. She has nasty round kicks to the body & head and can throw more than one in a row. She has excellent spinning kicks to the body & head. When she’s landing, angling and staying on the outside, she is at her best. Her problem is she gets too overaggressive. She will smother her punches & let her opponents grab ahold of her. Macedo is hittable herself, but she has a fighter’s spirit & will return with shots. She has been finished once by TKO on the ground vs Ashlee Evans-Smith & has one KO win. Her kicks are dangerous & she has a head kick knockout in an amateur fight.
Macedo isn’t an offensive grappler. She prefers to keep it on the feet & strike, but she is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. She has lost her first three UFC fights due to being out-grappled & it has been exposed as the way to defeat her. She was submitted for the first time in her career in her last fight. Macedo allows fighters to clinch up with her when she darts in & Andre Lee & Ashlee Evans-Smith have just been the more powerful fighters. She showed some nice knees to the body & elbows against Smith & was able to disengage a few times against Lee, but overall, she lost those spots. She couldn’t stop the takedowns, and besides sometimes creating quick scrambles to stand back up, she was dominated. Macedo will look for leg locks & sweeps. She does have a heel hook win in her career. She isn’t bad attacking from her guard either, but she gives her back trying to stand up & isn’t defensively sound. Even in top position she will get too overaggressive & give up top position. She was able to win some grappling exchanges against Andrea Lee & has shown moments of good things on the ground. When she fought Gillian Robertson, she was able to sweep Robertson & get back to her feet in round one. She was also able to reverse several takedowns and take top position. Macedo will sometimes attack guillotines instead of trying to defend takedowns & she has to stop doing that. If she keeps fights on the feet she will be much more successful. Macedo has one submission win & one submission loss. She hasn’t won a fight since 2016 & her back is against the wall in this spot. Macedo is going to be much faster, and the better striker here. She needs to stick & move and keep this standing. Viana holds her hands very low & I feel if Macedo can get in, land 3-4 punches & get out continuously, she could really frustrate Viana. I could also see Macedo landing a front leg sidekick to the head. If Macedo keeps this a range striking battle she has a big advantage.
Viana is taking this fight on a week’s short notice. She opened at -170 and her betting line climbed as high as -230. Now it is all the way back down to pickem because of all the money that has come in on Macedo. I do think Macedo is the better striker in this match and I would assume she has the better cardio having had a full training camp. I think Viana is going to be looking for a finish though and if she can get this fight to the ground I think she can get it. I do think Viana can hang on the feet here and even have a higher pace, but I would favor Macedo in overall striking talent. I think Viana has a big edge on the ground though and if she can get this fight to the mat I do see her pulling off a submission win. I would be more confident in this matchup if she had a full camp to prepare, but I have been more impressed with what I have seen in Viana on film. I like the edge she has on the ground and she might only need to get it there one time to lock up a submission. I will take her by sub her but if she struggles with takedowns then Macedo could wear her out and win this fight on the feet and possibly even finish Viana late.
The line has flipped on this fight and now the $7.6k underdog is the betting favorite. I do expect this to make Macedo over owned in GPPs, but I think cash is all I would be interested in with her. There is no way I want to be overweight to the field if I think she is going to be over owned, so I might full fade personally and get my leverage elsewhere. I actually prefer Viana here as my preferred GPP play because I think she has 1st round submission potential and if we can kill off 20% of more of the field who picked Macedo and get around 100 points for the 1st round finish, that could put her on the optimal lineup at lower ownership. I will have some Viana this week and I will be hoping she gets the early sub. If you want to throw Macedo into cash games for the value then that is totally fine, but she does have a low floor here even if she is the betting favorite.
Winner – Polyana Viana via 2nd round Submission
Alex Da Silva $9,200 vs Kazula Vargas $7,000
Alex da Silva
Age: 23
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Astra Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 354
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -275
Alex da Silva was unsuccessful in his UFC debut. After starting his career 18-0, da Silva has lost 2 of his last 4 fights. He’s still very young at just 23 years old & has time to turn it around. He will need to start the turnaround with a win over UFC newcomer Rodrigo Vargas. Silva was expected to face Rafael Fiziev, but Vargas is replacing him on short notice. Da Silva is fast & light on his feet. He has a nice jab, and one-two. He has heavy low leg kicks & throws them early & often. He will a left hook, right uppercut combination. He has very nice head kicks, and front knees to the body & head. Overall on the feet, he is wild & while dangerous, leaves a lot of openings. He has multiple one-shot finishes & has big power & explosiveness. He has 13 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished.
Da Silva is very aggressive with his grappling as well. He will throw brutal elbows in the clinch & can cut opponents open. He has good knees to the body & head. Da Silva’s weakness is in his wrestling. He allows fighters to back him up, and once fighters get in on his legs he’s fairly easy to take down. He is active off his back and is good at creating scrambles to take top position. When he gets top control, he loves to take the back & get RNC’s. He does a decent job of wrestling when he can push fighters to the cage. He will shoot double legs, but overall isn’t a great wrestler. He tends to shoot from way too far out when he starts to get hit & it leaves him susceptible to being put on his back or caught in a choke. He is very hard to hold down & is a great scrambler. I think Da Silva is the better fighter everywhere. He is super dangerous & finished all 20 of his wins. He has 7 submissions. Da Silva was submitted for the first time in his career in his last fight. He was guillotined after a good showing vs a much bigger fighter on short notice. Da Silva should look to use leg kicks, back Vargas up & beat him up with kicks, punches & in & out movement. I think Vargas will be going for takedowns, but even if he takes him down I think Da Silva should be able to submit or sweep to top position.
Rodrigo Vargas
Age: 33
Height: 5’7
Weight: 155
Reach: N/A
Gym: Mexican Pride Gym
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 190
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +235
Rodrigo Vargas is jumping in on short notice for the UFC opportunity. He is coming off of a head kick knockout of UFC veteran Mike De La Torre in just 18 seconds but hasn’t fought in a year & 3 months. Vargas has pulled out of two fights in 2019, and I’m not sure why. Vargas starts quickly & is good in the first round. Vargas’ hands are not very good. He has a short reach & struggles to find his range with his punches. He will try to use head movement to get inside & land hooks and will occasionally throw straights & overhands. He does have some decent kicks with his rear leg. He will throw them to the legs, body & head. He sometimes will throw jumping head kicks as well, but overall to me his striking is not good. He is very heavy on his lead leg, struggles to get meaningful offense going & is very emotional. When he gets hit he will wain in & get wild. He is very hittable but has a good chin & power. He has 6 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished with strikes.
Vargas will try to mix it up with his grappling but has average wrestling at best. He will back fighters up against the cage & take them down with singles & doubles. I have seen him land some trip takedowns as well. On top, he is aggressive with ground & pound, but not technical, and green in the Jiu-Jitsu realm. His defensive wresting is not good. He can get taken down with well-timed shots easily & doesn’t have good chain wrestling against the cage. He doesn’t offer much off his back & can be held down, that is how he lost his last match. Vargas tends to get tired when forced to wrestle & his movements become very labored. Coming in on short notice here, I expect him to maybe try to go for broke & get the first-round knockout. I don’t think Vargas is UFC level or would even be in the UFC if this fight wasn’t short notice in Central America. He’s a tough dude & fun to watch, but not UFC level in my opinion. Vargas has 3 submissions & has finished 9 of his 10 wins. He has been submitted one time. The level of competition he’s faced is not very high & this will be the best fighter he’s faced. Vargas in this fight should look to use his punches to get takedowns. He also could try to goad da Silva into a brawl.
Da Silva is only 23 years old and this will be his 23rd professional fight. He has 20 wins and they are all finishes. He has 13 KO’s and 7 submissions on his record and he looks to have a lot of potential. Vargas is making his UFC debut here on short notice, at 33 years old, and has only fought once in the last two years. He looks to have power, but I really haven’t seen anything special about his game other than one punch KO power. I think he is going to need to get the knockout here to win as well because I see Silva being better everywhere. Silva could submit him or knock him out, but I do think he finishes and I don’t even think this fight hits the 3rd round. I will take him to win by submission because I think he would be in less danger himself on the ground, so it could be a smart game plan to get it there, but I like him anywhere this fight goes.
This is a fight I do like for GPPs on DraftKings. I think the fight probably ends ITD and I can see either guy making the optimal with a win. I think Silva is going to be a good pivot away from the other $9k fighters and I think he can finish on the feet or the ground here. I think if he can get the finish, he has just as high of a ceiling as these other $9k fighters and I expect them to be higher owned. He is my preferred play here, but this is probably a GPP only fight for me either way. I think if Vargas wins, he probably finishes. If he finishes at his price in any round, he has a good chance of being on the optimal lineup. I don’t think either one of these guys will get much ownership this week, so I think it’s a sneaky GPP fight to use either side of. I will have more Silva in this matchup but if you are multi-entering then I would toss both into the player pool.
Winner – Alex Da Silva via 1st round Submission
Geraldo de Freitas $8,700 vs Chris Guitierrez $7,900
Geraldo De Freitas
Age: 27
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Brazilian Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 79
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -140
Geraldo De Freitas had a dominant win in his UFC debut. He won a comprehensive decision against Felipe Colares. De Freitas has won seven consecutive fights. De Freitas is a well-rounded fighter. He has a long reach & uses it effectively. He has a nasty jab. He throws it very quickly, and will double, triple up on it. He has a very fast, straight-right hand. He will throw nice one-twos. He will throw a really nice left hook, straight-right combo & will pour on the pressure when he gets his range. He will throw head kicks at the end of his combinations & his kicks are fluid. He likes to move a lot & stay on the outside. He kind of keeps his chin high & in the pocket he can get clipped in exchanges. He seems to know that & tries to avoid those types of situations. He will use well-timed double legs also to avoid exchanges. De Freitas doesn’t sit down & try to knock opponents out & is more about speed and movement. He does have 4 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished.
De Freitas is a strong grappler. He has a very nice clinch game. He will throw really nice knees to the & elbows to the body. He will grab the Muay Thai plum, land some big knees & disengage. He showed nice double leg & body lock takedowns against the cage along with a strong top game. He is good at landing a few punches & then ducking under for well-timed doubles. He was able to advance to the mount & the back. He landed some nice elbows from top position. He did lose position a few times & ended up on bottom. He showed off a strong game while on his back as well. He had great guard recovery, armbars, triangles & butterfly hooks. He has solid sweeps & will attack the legs to get up also. He has good get-ups & when he does stand up, he will stay on opponents. He has great cardio, keeps a high volume on the feet & can grind in the clinch against the fence. I was actually very impressed the way de Freitas blended his striking & wrestling in that match. De Freitas has 5 submissions in his career, mostly off his back. He has 3 armbars, a triangle, and one rear naked choke. I expect De Freitas to want to use his wrestling a lot in this fight. He needs to keep the pace high, get takedowns, grind against the fence & try to break Gutierrez. He has to go forward in this match & can’t play an outside game against Gutierrez. He needs to use his reach & hand speed to back Gutierrez up & try to keep his back near the cage.
Chris Gutiérrez
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Factory X
From: California
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 67
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +120
Chris Gutierrez is coming off an excellent performance in his second UFC fight. He thoroughly dominated Ryan MacDonald and showed off great striking skills. Gutierrez is a good striker. He has very good defensive movement & likes to fight on the counter. He has nice round & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw nice check left hooks, & one-twos. He is good at throwing the left hook while moving backwards. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. He will blitz forward with straight punches to close the distance. He has a nice front leg, round kick to the head. He has a very nice spinning backfist. He will throw nice spinning back kicks to the body & head. Gutierrez is very fast & is always feinting. He keeps fighters off balance & is very hard to read on the feet. He can get backed to the cage & allows opponents to control the center at times. He has 6 career KO/TKO’s & good durability never being finished by strikes.
Gutierrez is an average grappler. He is a questionable defensive wrestler and doesn’t wrestle offensively. He is solid in the clinch. He will look for hard knees to the body. He can be taken down, but he has solid get-ups. He has been out grappled to losses vs fighters such as Timur Valiev & Jerrod Sanders. He also has a victory over Timur Valiev. He will use butterfly hooks, or even give his back & scramble to his feet. He does have nice armbars & triangles. He is able to throw up very quick armbars and uses submissions to scramble back to his feet. He will roll for leg locks. He has one career submission via rear naked choke. He has been submitted one time. The game plan for Gutierrez should be sticking & moving, never allow himself to be backed against the fence & try to use kicks & blitz attacks to keep De Freitas off balance. He needs to win the scrambles & avoid being put on his back.
On the feet, I expect this fight to be close. I think Gutierrez is the better overall striker. I think Freitas throws with more power though and I think he could be the one striking at the higher pace. However, it’s the ground game that I think is going to be the difference in this fight. I think Freitas should look to land takedowns here and if he can get them then I like him to get the win. He is a solid grappler and he could get a submission or even get in full mount and finish with ground and pound. I also think the takedowns are going to help him win rounds if this fight does go all 3-rounds. I am going to pick Freitas here as my winner and I think he gets the job done with a grappling heavy game plan.
On DraftKings, de Freitas is my preferred play. In his UFC debut he had 6 takedowns and 11 advances and scored 127.5 DK points. Not many fighters on this card have a ceiling like that. I don’t see him scoring that again here, but it is a possibility and he should be looking to grapple. I don’t care for Gutierrez here because he is likely going to need a KO to end up on the optimal lineup. I think he has a shot of winning a decision on the feet, but I don’t feel good about him getting the KO. If he doesn’t get the KO, then I don’t see how he scores highly. He won’t be looking for takedowns here and I don’t see him dominating and landing at a high enough pace to score highly over the course of 3 rounds. I would rather target the grappler with a high ceiling in all formats and I like the price of de Freitas a lot. He is probably going to be a core play of mine this weekend and if he does win I think he has a good shot at 10x or more.
Winner – Geraldo De Freitas via Unanimous Decision
Rogerio Bontorin $8,200 vs Raulian Paiva $8,000
Rogerio Bontorin
Age: 27
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Gile Riberio Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +100
Rogerio Bontorin had an excellent UFC debut. He won a decision against the tough prospect Magomed Bibulatov. This fight was also a split decision, which could have gone either way, but Bontorin was the lucky one. It’s funny because I actually feel as if Paiva won & Bontorin lost. Bontorin is very impressive with a record of 15-1. Bontorin is the shorter, more compact fighter. Bontorin is a counter striker. He has a nice jab & good left hook. He is pretty fast & will leap into counter one-twos. He has good low kicks. Bontorin counters with his right hand well. He will land counter hooks & overhands over the top. He also attacks the body with straight & hook punches. He will throw heavy to the body & hurt his opponent on DWCS with a straight-right. Bontorin is going to have to get inside because on the outside he doesn’t have the striking to contend. He has a good chin, but he was rocked very hard & almost finished on the DWCS. He didn’t show great defensive technique when he was hurt to me. He wasn’t using footwork to avoid the fight, instead he will plod forward & reach for the clinch.
Bontorin is an explosive, compact fighter with good grappling skills. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & very strong. He will use a flurry of punches to get in on the clinch & dig underhooks. He has nice trip takedowns. If he can get a tight waist grip around the body, he can land big slams. He will be the physically stronger fighter in the matchup. Bontorin catches kicks very well & takes opponents down a lot that way. He will shoot some singles & doubles in space against the cage, but his clinch takedowns are definitely the best. When he takes opponents down he has great control & back takes. He was able to take the back of accomplished grappler Magomed Bibulatov multiple times. Bontorin will move to mount & attacks with armbars from the high mount. His takedown defense is excellent. He is very hard to takedown & even harder to hold down. Bontorin was submitted in his one loss against Michinori Tanaka. Bontorin has 11 submission wins. Bontorin is going to want to counter Paiva on the feet & wrestle. If he can get takedowns & take the back, he will have a shot to finish Paiva. I feel that Bontorin is the stronger more physical fighter here & if he can ground Paiva & start putting his weight on him, he will have success.
Raulian Paiva
Age: 23
Height: 5’8
Weight: 125
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 38
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -120
Raulian Paiva had his 12-fight winning streak snapped in his UFC debut. He may have raised his stock even with the loss. He entered a heavy underdog against Kai Kara France on short notice and lost a split decision. The fight took place in Kara-France’s home country of Australia & it may have gone the other way if not for that. Paiva should be improving quickly. He is 23 years old & now has moved his camp to Team Alpha Male. Paiva is a technical brawler. He likes to control the center, walk opponents down, and keeps the volume high. Paiva has a great jab & nasty leg kicks. He has a very nice one-two, & his straight-right hand is money. He is very accurate with it & throws it as a lead often. Paiva has a nice jab, overhand right combination. Paiva has powerful counter right hooks. He will throw right hook, left hook combinations to close the distance. Paiva throws down and is willing to eat a shot to give his own. He will get emotional when opponents hit him & fires back immediately. Paiva has nice round kicks to the body & head. Paiva has a great chin & is willing to hang in the pocket & trade. Paiva has 3 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Raulian Paiva is a strong grappler. He is strong in the clinch and does a good job of using punches to get into the clinch safely. He will look for standing guillotines & to get on the back and get standing rear naked chokes. He is an awesome scrambler, and while not a good wrestler, he’s great at creating 50-50 positions & ending up on top. He is excellent at defending takedowns with switches. He can be taken down & also controlled against the cage. Off his back he has excellent sweeps and will attack with triangles & armbars. His sweeping game is dynamic, and he turns bad positions into good ones more often than not. It will be extremely interesting to see if Bontorin will be able to control Paiva on the mat. He doesn’t really look for many takedowns himself besides the occasional clinch takedowns, but he does do a good job of catching kicks, dumping opponents & getting on top. On top, he has nice elbows & will work for front chokes such as darces & anacondas. Paiva has 3 submissions & lost once via submission. He has incredible cardio & pushes a fantastic pace. He is much more of position over submission threat & only has three career submissions & lost once via submission. In this fight Paiva needs to use smart pressure, cut the cage off, make it small for Rogerio. He needs to use his long punches, attack with straight punches, front kicks to the body, and keep the pressure high. When Bontorin goes for takedowns he has to defend or win the scrambles, and quickly return to his feet.
I am looking forward to this fight. Both guys look to have solid talent and I think they should stick around in the UFC for a while. They are both well-rounded but Bontorin is more of a finisher and Paiva seems to be more of a point fighter. I think this will be a close back and forth fight and we could see a mixture of striking and grappling. When I started my research, PaIva was a +135 underdog and I was thinking that would be a play. By the time I started writing this fight up it was moved closer to pickem and now I am less interested in betting it. I think this is close to a 50/50 fight, so I would really be interested in the underdog if the lines moves either way. If I can get +135 on either one of these guys, I am interested in a small play. I do see this fight going all 3-rounds though and I see Paiva being the guy striking at the higher rate. I do think this fight mostly plays out on the feet but both guys are solid on the mat so either could look to take it there. At this line I am probably passing but I am going to lean with Paiva as my pick.
I am honestly not sure what I will do with this fight. I like both fighters and I think either could finish and score highly. I also like their mid-range salaries and they are easy to fit into lineups. I just don’t feel confident in either one to put them in cash games and I don’t want to be much heavier in GPPs on one over the other. Paiva is my preferred play because he is cheaper, and he has some line value now. However, that probably comes with slightly higher ownership as well. I think if I was making 3-5 lineups, I would just fade this fight and hope the winner scores under 80 DK points. If I am making 20 or more, I think I might want a small amount of exposure to both sides. Ideally, I would just use a duplicated LU and have one of each in case my other 5 fighters go off. I just don’t want to throw many LUs into the pot that way because I don’t feel confident this fight scores highly. It also has a -210 Fight Goes To Decision line. That is also keeping me away from it. I would guess if I have 20 lineups this week that I have maybe 1-2 of each guy. I am more likely to put Paiva in my lineup though because he is $200 cheaper and maybe I can’t afford a duplicated Bontorin LU.
Winner – Raulian Paiva via Split Decision
Tecia Torres $8,700 vs Marina Rodriguez $7,500
Tecia Torres
Age: 29
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 60.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Florida
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -155
Tecia Torres is a speedy, little powerhouse. I expect her to want to use her kick boxing, try to move, and catch Rodriguez as she’s coming inside. Torres does good fighting backwards, and that’s what I expect her to do here. She has strong lateral movement, and very quick in & out. She has nice one-twos & strong hooks. She will throw a left hook, straight-right hand. She will throw hooks moving backwards & it leaves her susceptible to overhands. She will throw hard inside, outside leg & body kicks. She will try to use sidekicks to stop fighters forward movement. She will explode in with big combinations at times herself, but the problem is she’s undersized and doesn’t have big power. Her last two opponents, Jessica Andrade & Weili Zhang, were able to eat her shots, walk her down, and Torres was never willing to take a stand and trade. To her defense, those are two of the hardest hitters & most durable fighters in the division. Torres has 0 KO/TKO’s.
Torres is a good grappler, and very active in the clinch. She likes to throw hard knees to the body & punches to the body & head. Torres has good takedown defense & she’s hard to corral. She is good off her back & hard to hold down. She has good butterfly hooks & is able to attack with submissions to force scrambles. She has good triangles and armbars. She was able to get up from bottom on Andrade several times & was able to get deep in on some body lock takedowns. She was never able to put Andrade on her back. In Torres’ last fight with Weili Zhang, she lost due to grappling again, but landed several takedowns herself & swept Zhang multiple times. Torres is a good offensive wrestler with double legs, body locks & an excellent scrambler. In this fight she needs to use a lot of well-timed takedowns. Torres is clearly the better grappler & should shoot double legs to counter the forward pressure of Rodriguez. Torres one career finish was via submission & she’s never been finished in her career. She always comes to fight in phenomenal cardiovascular condition. Torres is much more experienced & needs to fight to a game plan & win decisively here.
Marina Rodriguez
Age: 32
Height: 5’7
Weight: 115
Reach: 65”
Gym: Thai Brasil
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-0-1
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +135
Rodriguez is a striker & a former kick boxing world champion. Rodriguez is much more of a kicker than a puncher. She really only tends to look for a jab, right hook, a jab, straight-right hand, a jab, overhand right or a straight-left hand. She leaves her chin high at times when she’s punching & can get countered clean. She has very nice, low leg kicks. She will throw hard front kicks to the body & head. She will throw solid round kicks to the body & head. She will throw superman punches or spinning backfists to close the distance & get into the clinch. She did a great job of battering the lead leg of Randa Markos and hindered her movement. When fighters blitz her, she tends to exit in straight lines & Markos was able to land clean, straight punches and back her to the cage with her striking. Overall, I am not extremely impressed with her range striking. She does have great cardio & will continue to go forward. She was able to put a lot of pressure on the feet & win round 3 vs Randa Markos. She has 5 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Rodriguez is at her best in the clinch. She does a great job of getting good head positioning, turning her opponent to the cage and landing nasty knees. She has excellent knees to the body & head. She will throw hard, short elbows to the head as well. She has big power in her clinch strikes & that’s where she gets the majority of her finishes. She isn’t a bad grappler & actually will go for takedowns against the cage herself. She has pretty good overall takedown defense. She was also able to sweep Markos a couple times & take top position. She was taken down a few times by Markos & was mounted in round one. She showed good composure & although she couldn’t get up, she was able to survive the round. When she can get top position, she has some pretty solid G&P. She will posture up in half guard & land hard knees to the body & elbows to the head. She just has one career submission & has never been submitted. Rodriguez has tremendous cardio & her pressure and pace is one of her best assets.
Torres is coming into this fight on a 3-fight losing streak. She is going to be 5-inches shorter with a 5-inch reach disadvantage and going against what I believe will be a better striker. Rodriguez has looked great on the feet and she has a lot more weapons to use and she strikes at a higher rate. If this is a 15-minutes striking match, I would favor her in this matchup. I think she can win the striking here and its really Torres’ movement that would likely give her the most problems on the feet. Torres should look for takedowns in this fight though because that is where she is going to have the edge. If she can get Marina against the cage or on the mat, she can win rounds that way. She could also finish with a submission on the ground. That is why she is the favorite in this spot. However, she only lands takedowns at a 16% rate and she lands less than 1 takedown per 15-minutes. I think Marina can keep this fight standing for the most part and while it is on the feet I think she is going to be winning. I like the upset here in a striking based decision but if she can’t keep the fight standing and at distance, she could be in some trouble.
On DraftKings, I don’t have a lot of interest in this fight. My preferred play is definitely the underdog because I think she can win this fight and I like her floor. However, I am not confident she gets the win, and I don’t love her ceiling. I prefer her more in cash games because I don’t see her getting finished. I think she can put up 30+ points in a loss and in cash that could be fine. If she does get a win here though it could be less than 10x her salary and that might not help us much in GPPs. We aren’t trying to double our money in GPPs, we are trying to win big. I don’t see her scoring big, so I don’t want to invest much trying to win big with her. She will make my player pool this week, but I would guess I don’t have more than 15% or so in GPPs. I am going to have to full fade Torres here though because of her price. If you think she is going to get a finish, then go ahead and use her. She will be low owned, and she could get a sub. I just don’t want to invest in that and I would rather find other favorites.
Winner – Marina Rodriguez via Split Decision
Ciryl Gane $9,400 vs Raphael Pessoa $7,900
Ciryl Gane
Age: 28
Height: 6’5
Weight: 244
Reach: 83”
Gym: MMA Factory Paris
From: France
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 113
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-0
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -430
Ciryl Gane enters his UFC debut a massive -430 favorite. He only has a 3-0 record but has obviously shown potential. Gane is also 12-0 in pro Muay Thai & his striking is great. He is not your typical HW. He has excellent movement, switches stances, and is very fast & fluid. He does hold his hands down, but he’s light on his feet bouncing in & out, & extremely hard to hit. He is 6’5 with a 83” reach & uses it very well. He has a nasty jab. He will snap the head back of his opponents with the jab & it comes very fast. He will follow the jab with nasty straights to the head & body. He will throw the jab, switch stances & rip the straight punch to the body from both stance fluidly. He slips punches effortlessly & will use his slips to create new angles for shots. He has barely gotten hit in the fights I’ve seen, while lighting his opponents up. He has a nasty left hook & right uppercut. He will throw hard leg & oblique kicks. Gane will throw occasional body & head kicks but is mostly a puncher. He does have nasty front knees to the body that look devastating. When he gets opponents moving backwards, he will mix in spinning kicks & spinning backfists. Gane so far in his career has been able to pressure, and back his opponents up; make them miss easily, counter & take them out. Game has 3 KO/TKO’s in his 3 wins. I haven’t seen Gane tagged or how he reacts to that, but he hits very hard.
I have not seen very much grappling from Gane. In his last fight when he dropped his opponent, he was extremely aggressive with ground & pound. He did get off balanced with a leg attack, but scramble attacked with a front choke, retook top position & finished the fight. I haven’t seen him shoot takedowns or defend them. I imagine he will be extremely hard to shoot in on with his movement. Gane has great cardio & can keep that movement up deep into the second round along with a lot of volume. Gane looks like he could be a special fighter. For being only 3-0, he has dominated & finished a 7-1 & 8-1 fighter in his last two matches. Gane & Pessoa were actually set to be the main event of TKO 46 in March. The event was cancelled & now they get to fight in the UFC. Gane is going to be much faster with his feet. I see him trying to back Pessoa up near the fence & use his speed to make Pessoa miss & make him pay. He should attack the body & respect the power of Pessoa but try to overwhelm him with his athleticism.
Raphael Pessoa
Age: 30
Height: 6’3
Weight: 263
Reach: N/A
Gym: Evolucao Thai
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 96
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: +345
Raphael Pessoa is another undefeated prospect at 9-0. He fights out of Brazil & is coming off a knockout win on LFA 50. Pessoa is an athletic striker himself. He has good lateral movement & nasty leg kicks. Gane has been very good at moving his leg back to avoid leg kicks & it will be interesting to see if Pessoa can land some & slow the movement. Pessoa will throw body & spinning kicks. Pessoa isn’t nearly the athlete Gane is. When opponents pressure forward, he doesn’t have quick feet & just trades wildly. He has huge power & has been able to knockout a lot of opponents in sloppy pocket exchanges. I haven’t seen a ton of footage on him & that’s pretty much what I see from his striking. He gets hit in the exchanges as well but has a strong chin & fires back. He is much more basic than Gane & trading inside sloppily will likely get him knocked out. He also is soft in the body & I don’t know if he will like the body shots from Gane. Pessoa has 6 knockouts in 9 wins.
I haven’t seen any grappling from Pessoa at all. He doesn’t look like someone who will have an explosive wrestling shot & I highly doubt he can takedown Gane. Pessoa does have one career submission. Pessoa is going to need to try to land leg kicks, slow the movement of Gane, and force him to brawl. He doesn’t have a path to victory other than that, that I can see.
I would be surprised if we saw all 3-rounds in this fight. Both guys throw heavy and I don’t think either is going to take 15 minutes of shots like they throw. These guys are big heavyweights and I think they are both a decent addition to the UFC HW division. Especially Gane. Gane looks like he could really make a splash in this division and his striking is dangerous. Pessoa has nice hands with lots of KO power himself, so he could definitely get a 1st round KO himself, but talent and potential wise I have to favor Gane. I also think Pessoa sticks his chin in the air too often when he is throwing punches and that isn’t going to end well with Gane on the other end. I think this fight ends in the first two rounds, but I will take Gane by round 1 KO.
FDGTD is -615 and that is by far the highest on this card. I would be very surprised to see this go all 3-rounds and I think there is a good chance it doesn’t make it out of the 1st. If that is the case, then the winner is probably scoring over 100-points. I like both sides and will be using both sides because that is how I see it going down. I don’t love this fight for cash though because they both have 0-point floors. Gane is my preferred play here though because I think he is the real deal and his striking looks like it is on another level. I see him getting ~105 or so points here with a round 1 KO. I will be heavy on him this week, but we don’t have to force him in. I don’t see him having 120+ upside and there are others who could get there. This will be in over half my lineups this week though and if I was making 10 lineups I would guess I have 5 Gane and 2 Pessoa.
Winner – Ciryl Gane via 1st round (T)KO
Aleksei Kunchenko $8,800 vs Gilbert Burns $7,400
Aleksei Kunchenko
Age: 35
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 70”
Gym: BK Arkhangel Mikhail
From: Russia
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 30
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W20
Betting Odds: -135
Aleksei Kunchenko is putting his undefeated 20-0 record on the line, against the surging Gilbert Burns. Kunchenko was set to face Laureano Staropoli, but Burns is slipping in here on short notice. He is very technical and methodical. He is a forward pressure fighter with great distance control. He is excellent at sliding in & out of range, landing & not getting hit. He has a nice jab, and good check left hook, right hand combination. He has very quick hand speed, and will land hard hooks in the pocket, while avoiding his opponent’s shots. He does a great job of closing the distance, throwing hook combinations, and when opponents start to raise their guard, he will come up the middle with hard uppercuts. He has nasty kicks, great leg kicks, body kicks and head kicks, and throws them with very little wind up. He will throw nice, spinning heel kicks to the body & head. He will throw front leg head kicks followed by rear leg head kicks. When he opens up & gets comfortable, his kicks look very dangerous. He also has very nice step-in knees to the body, which I could see being a good weapon in this fight. His footwork is very nice. He does a great job of always stalking his opponents to the cage and cutting them off when they try to return to the center. He doesn’t throw much in combination, and just does a lot of one shot attacks. It leaves him out of much danger but makes him low volume. With that being said Kunchenko has never lost or even been to split decision. He is 6-0 in decisions all unanimous. He has 13 KO/TKO’s.
Aleksei Kunchenko is a very good grappler. He has great takedowns, good double legs and body locks, and has very brutal ground & pound. He is long and can stand up in his opponent’s guard and rain down straight punches until they are unconscious. He has good top control and will throw the legs to the side, go to mount and look for ground & pound. He is not much of a submission threat with only one career submission. His takedown defense looked excellent vs a great grappler in Okami. Okami is a massive 170 lber who competed most of his career at 185 and didn’t get close to taking Kunchenko down. He has an excellent sprawl & is great at disengaging from the clinch. He was making Kunchenko pay for the takedown attempts with big elbows & knees to the body. Kunchenko has just one submission in his career. He is a very smart fighter & a winner. He didn’t engage whatsoever on the ground vs Okami even when Okami tried to lure him into his guard. He won’t do it in this match either & fights to a game plan. His methodical pace allows him to keep the same pace all match, and systematically breakdown his opponents before knocking them out. In his last fight, he actually looked better & picked it up in round 3. Kunchenko is going to want to use his feints & forward pressure to draw out bad shots & big actions out of Burns. Once he gets his reads, he then should be able to start to open up & counter more. He needs to put the pressure on Burns & make him work moving backwards, defend the takedowns, and make Burns strike & maybe he will gas. He is on short notice & up a weight class he’s not accustomed to fighting at. He is the more technical striker on the feet & if he keeps it as his pace & range he should have success.
Gilbert Burns
Age: 33
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170 (UFC Debut)
Reach: 71”
Gym: Blackzillians
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 8-3
Fight Matrix: 30(LW)
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +115
Gilbert Burns is jumping in here on short notice up a weight class. He is one of the bigger 155 lbers in the UFC, so it will be interesting to see how he matches up with fighters at 170. I’m not sure this is going to be a permanent move, but apparently, he has had trouble getting ranked opponents to accept fights with him at LW. Burns has won back to back fights & 4 of 5 overall. Burns is a dangerous fighter. He has one punch knockout power, to compliment his world class Jiu-Jitsu. He is light on his feet & tries to be in & out. He will throw nice one-twos, along with a jab, overhand right. He has a nice left hook, dropping OAM with it. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks. He has a solid jab, uppercut combination. He will throw heavy round kicks to the body & head. Burns still doesn’t have a lot of variety in his striking & if fighters can start to time his entries, he’s exploitable. He tends to float his lead hand low & back up in straight lines when pressured. His power is the game changer on the feet and he has multiple one punch knockouts. He has a good chin & will take shots & return usually landing the heavier shot. He has 5 KO/TKO’s & has been finished once by strikes.
Burns has really improved his wrestling. He is extremely physical for the division and uses it to his advantage. He will shoot a single, push opponents, chain it into a double & take fighters on rides. He was able to slam OAM multiple times, who is one of the stronger grapplers in the division. He will shoot nice, reactive doubles in space. He does a good job of using the entry to circle to the back & take it from standing position or drag opponents to the mat from there. When he is on top, he is one of the best top players in the UFC. He works very quickly & is always searching for the back. He has tremendous back control & top control overall. He will transition to mount as well, and search for armbars & rear naked chokes the whole time. He has 7 submissions in his career. He has finished 13 of his 15 wins & is just 2-2 in decisions. Burns is going to need to make this fight fast paced & more of a brawl. He can’t let Kunchenko start to walk him down & make reads. If he can make Kunchenko respect his striking by landing some big shots, that will help open up the takedowns. If he can get on top of Kunchenko or anyone for that matter he is a problem.
Burns is stepping up to 170 lbs here to take this fight on short notice. Kunchenko is 20-0 in his career and 2-0 in the UFC. He is going to be the bigger, stronger guy here likely and he should look to keep it standing. Burns is an excellent Jiu-Jitsu player and I favor him on the ground whether he is on the top or the bottom. I do think Burns should be the quicker fighter on the feet as well and he is just as skilled as Kunchenko is in the striking department, in my opinion. I do worry about the chin of Burns here against legit 170 lb power puncher. I think if Burns loses, it is most likely by knockout. He could also get his takedowns stuffed and lose a striking decision, but I think he will keep this fight close on the feet. Because I think this fight will be close in the striking department, I am going to side with the underdog here because of his edge on the ground. If he can land takedowns here he can win rounds that way or he could try to lock up a submission.
On DraftKings, Burns is my preferred play. I like Burns in both formats and he will probably be one of my highest owned underdogs of the week. I think he will need a finish to score highly, but he could get it and at 170 lbs he will be stronger and have more power than he did at 155. I also think he has a decent floor unless he gets knocked out. That could happen, so he won’t be a lock in my cash game, but I do personally think he at least sees 15-minutes if he loses and I think he can get 30-40+ points if that is the case. I don’t care much more Kunchenko because he is going to need the KO to score highly. I don’t think we see him going for any takedowns here and he could spend a lot of time trying to stuff them and he won’t be scoring during those moments. He also just doesn’t put up a high enough pace to score highly in a decision win. If you think he gets the KO, then throw him in your player pool. If you don’t, then I think he is a decent fade here.
Winner – Gilbert Burns via 2nd round Submission
Enrique Barzola $8,900 vs Bobby Moffett $7,300
Enrique Barzola
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Peru
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 61
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -140
Enrique Barzola needs to bounce back from a loss here. He is a wrestler but improving as a striker. He is fast, has good in & out movement, and is constantly pressuring forward. He holds his hands low & is constantly baiting opponents to throw so he can duck under & get takedowns. He has very nice low calf kicks & one-twos. He will fake level changes & come up with one-twos. He does the same thing very nicely with his overhand right. He will slip punches & return with hooks. He’s very good at slipping shots in the pocket & coming back with shots or ducking under for takedowns. The constant threat of the takedown makes his striking much more effective & can freeze opponents. He has solid body & head kicks & is constantly going forward forcing his opponent to work. He is very good at catching kicks & taking opponents down & can neutralize their kicking games. He has great cardio & fights at a fast pace. He has good defense overall, but he can get emotional and invite brawls. That tendency almost cost him on his fight against Gabriel Benitez, where he was goaded in and dropped with less than 5 seconds left in the fight. He has never been finished. He definitely isn’t a huge threat for a standing knockout & much more of a grinder. He has 5 KO/TKO’s, but none in the UFC.
Barzola is a very good grappler & explosive wrestler. He is very physical & can manhandle opponents in the octagon. He is very good at using his striking to get clean entries on double legs. He can land big, explosive slam takedowns. He is good at ducking under & getting in on double underhooks as well. He will drive & control his opponent against the cage and chain wrestle. He will get the right waist, move to the back and get suplexes or drag his opponents to the mat. He will chain takedowns together, until usually finishing with a double. He does a good job of picking up and slamming his opponent in the open mat instead of against the cage, making it harder for them to stand up. On top, he is more of a control fighter. He will look for G&P, and just hold and grind his opponent out. He does have some pretty solid ground & pound from guard. I haven’t seen anyone try to take him down & put him on his back and we will probably see that in this match. He has never been submitted, but he did show some fear of Matt Bessette’s guard, not being willing to stay in top position there. He has 4 submissions & never been submitted.
Bobby Moffett
Age: 29
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 93
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +120
Moffett is a forward pressure fighter & looking to use his shots to get inside & get takedowns. He will try to stay light on his feet, bounce in & out, but he is a bit stiff. He will throw an overhand right & right hook. He will throw a lead left hook. He will mix in uppercuts. He doesn’t throw very many kicks, but he has nice leg kicks & good head kicks. He really doesn’t even 100% commit to a lot of his punches & is only throwing them to distract opponents and eventually take them down. He will lean back & raise his chin up a bit when he defends and can be hit clean with straight punches & overhands. He can be hit with leg kicks as well, and when he is forced to strike he is uncomfortable. He isn’t much of a standing knockout threat & only has one career TKO. He has been finished once by TKO.
Moffett is a very good wrestler, and a submission artist. He is very strong in the clinch with body lock takedowns, and he also likes to shoot singles and doubles when fighters’ backs are near the cage. Once he is on top he works very quickly and has great guard passing. He does a solid job of jumping right into side control, where he will unload with heavy elbows and hammerfists. He has good control in that position and is able to float into a wrestling ride when opponents try to get out. He has a great mount and feels like a boulder on top of opponents. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and very dangerous with chokes. He has nice arm triangles and rear naked chokes, but his favorite choke is the darce. He can catch opponents in it both when they attempt to shoot on him or when he’s in top position. That makes him dangerous to shoot takedowns against along with him being a strong wrestler. He has great cardio and is always working in top position. He has great positional awareness as he just mauls guys. He has 9 submissions and has never been submitted in his career.
This should be a good matchup between two solid grapplers. Both guys are solid wrestlers and they go for takedowns often. Barzola is more of a wrestler where Moffett is more of a grappler/submission artist. I think whoever is landing takedowns in this fight is ultimately going to get the win. I would favor Barzola in a striking match here and if he doesn’t want to mess with Moffett’s submission game then maybe he looks to keep this standing. I think we see both guys look for takedowns in this fight though and I think there will be a good mixture of striking and grappling. I think Barzola is more likely to get a KO, but Moffett is more likely to get a submission. I think Barzola can stay out of submissions if he can get top control, but if Moffett is able to get takedowns of his own, then he is very live for the upset. I am going to lean with Barzola here because I think he has the better striking and can control where this fight takes place, but I think the odds should be a bit closer than they are.
I expect this to be a pretty popular fight on DraftKings. My preferred play is going to be Moffett because I think he is a live dog. I also think he could get a submission. And he has line movement in his favor. Barzola is going to be popular because he could land 10+ takedowns in pretty much any match he is in and that is what we like on DraftKings. I think he will be a little too popular for me though, so I don’t see me being overweight to the field. I would guess I will be in line with the field or underweight. I don’t like a lot of dogs on this card, but Moffett is another with a shot and with a shot to finish, so I will probably have him or Burns as my top two underdogs of the week. I think Moffett is a fine cash play as well because I don’t see him getting finished here. I think this is a good fight to target on either side though because of all the possible grappling that could take place. Both guys prefer to fight on the ground and either could have success there.
Winner – Enrique Barzola via Unanimous Decision
Rodolfo Viera $9,100 vs Oskar Piechota $7,100
Rodolfo Viera
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Fusion X-Cel
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 136
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -235
Rodolfo Viera is a Jiu-Jitsu legend. He is a 5-time ADCC World Champion. Rodolfo is 5-0 with 5 finishes since transitioning to MMA. He is training at Fusion X-Cel with guys like Jacare Souza. Rodolfo doesn’t really offer much on the feet. He will throw leg kicks, jabs, and occasional one-twos. He has decent hooks in close range, but mostly throws a couple to get respect for his feints. He is hittable & was caught with a decent uppercut & knee vs Jacob Tague that rocked him a bit before he got the takedown. Vieira is rugged & athletic though and isn’t a BJJ fighter who will quit in my opinion. It’s hard to say for sure because I haven’t seen him face too much adversity, but I think he’s tough.
Rodolfo Vieira will instantly be one of the best BJJ fighters in the UFC. He is one of the best passers in Jiu-Jitsu history & a 5-time ADCC world champion. He won the worlds at the HW 220 lb division & was able to handle the strength of bigger guys. He is extremely strong. Vieira has solid wrestling skills as well. He has very nice judo throws & trips in the clinch. He sets single & double legs up well & is very physical when he gets in on the legs. In top position, Rodolfo is a pressure Jiu-Jitsu player. He will try to turk the legs & move directly into mount or back position. He is exceptional at taking the back & in MMA he will be able to get the back of opponents with ease. He is known as the passing machine in Jiu-Jitsu & in MMA he will be on another level. If he gets on top of anyone they will be extreme danger. He actually can generate big power with his ground & pound and will use it to create passing situations and soften opponents up before locking in chokes. Vieira does have one ground & pound finish in his career. He has 3 rear naked chokes, an arm triangle & has finished all 5 of his pro wins. Rodolfo’s game plan is no secret, he is a specialist. He will be trying to get this fight to the mat & if he does he will likely finish the fight. Rodolfo has only been out of the first round one time in his career 2 years ago. He is coming off a huge win over undefeated 10-0 Russian prospect Vitaliy Nemchino vIa first round submission just two months ago.
Oskar Piechota
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 76”
Gym: Piranha Grappling Team
From: Poland
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 77
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +195
Oskar Piechota will be looking to bounce back from his first career loss. He was submitted by Gerald Meerschaert after some early success. He tired out in the fight & it led to him getting finished. Piechota is going to be the much better striker in the matchup. He has knockout power, and is much more dangerous standing up than Vieira. I expect Piechota to try to use lateral movement & snipe Vieira coming in. Piechota is going to be a little bit longer & a southpaw. I expect Oskar to use his right hook a lot in this fight. He has a nice straight-left hand, usually to the head, but occasionally to the body also. He landed a nice right hook to the body to a straight-left hand combination that dropped Jonathan Wilson in his UFC debut. He has a nice right uppercut when he backs opponents to the cage. He knocked out Tim Williams with a nice overhand left. Piechota has nice rear leg kicks. He has nice inside leg kicks, and tricky head kicks. He has some head kick knockouts in his career. Piechota isn’t the greatest athlete & a little bit stiff. He is hittable, and fighters can cut him off. He showed a ton of heart in his last match against Gerald Meerschaert, taking some bombs & trying to return with his own, but he took a ton of damage. I expect Vieira to be the faster fighter. Piechota has 5 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished with strikes.
Oskar Piechota is a credentialed Jiu-Jitsu artist himself. He is a black belt of Robert Drysdale & ADCC competitor. He isn’t nearly on the same level as Vieira though. Piechota is a decent wrestler, but he will be looking to use it in reverse to keep it standing here. In his last fight with Gerald Meerschaert he was out grappled & eventually submitted. Meerschaert was able to get a body lock fairly easily & when he took him to the ground & did some damage, Piechota gassed out very quickly. Meerschaert seemed much stronger when he got in on the clinch and I expect Rodolfo to attack a lot of body lock/judo takedowns. Piechota has no quit in him on the mat & went out cold trying to fight the rear naked choke vs Meerschaert. I don’t think his defense is up to par if he gets taken down & he definitely has to keep it standing. I just think Vieira will easily take his back & finish if he gets top position. Piechota does have 5 submissions but was submitted for the first time in his last match. Piechota has questionable cardio & needs to address that. Piechota is going to want to try to use his lateral movement, straight punches, uppercuts, and maybe try to look for a knee or head kick.
Viera is an undefeated prospect making his UFC debut here. He is a BJ.J. black belt and his game plan is going to be clear here. He is going to look to get this fight to the mat and work his way to a submission. He doesn’t have much striking so if he can’t get the fight to the mat he will be in trouble. But he is very impressive once he gets into a dominant position on the ground and he is a finisher. Piechota is a well-rounded fighter and he is making his return after more than a year off. He is going to be the much better striker here and if he can keep the fight standing he could get a knockout upset here. He is a BJ.J. black belt himself as well, but I don’t see him competing on the ground or even wanting to test Viera there. It is going to come down to whether he can stuff takedowns. I think Piechota is probably in trouble once Viera gets ahold of him. Most BJ.J. guys are good once the fight is on the mat but Viera is strong and seems to have solid wrestling as well. He will also chain wrestle until he can get the takedown. I am going to pick Viera to win by submission in the 1st round.
This has the 2nd highest FDGTD line on the card at -395. That makes it one of my favorite GPP fights to target and my preferred play is Viera. He is going to want to grapple here and he has the ability to get 5+ takedowns AND a finish in round 1. He is one of my favorite plays on the card this week and I think he has one of the higher ceilings on the card. I like him in all formats but more so GPPs. If he loses, he probably gets knocked out. He doesn’t have much to offer on the feet and if Oskar can stuff takedowns he is going to win this fight and he will probably get a KO. At his price, if he wins he has a great shot of being on the $25k lineup. I will be close to all-in on this fight personally but Viera will be a core play and I will be hoping he gets it done early.
Winner – Rodolfo Viera via 1st round Submission
Volkan Oezdemir $8,500 vs Ilir Latifi $7,700
Volkan Oezdemir
Age: 29
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Frontline Academy
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -145
Volkan Oezdemir has his back against the wall here. He has lost three consecutive fights & is desperate for a win. His last match with Dominick Reyes was a very controversial decision most fans thought he deserved to win. He has changed it up again for this camp & is at Frontline Academy in Norway for this match. Frontline Academy is the same gym Jack Hermansson trains out of, and he has been on a tear of late. Oezdemir is a big, powerful kick boxer. He has a nice jab, he will double and triple up on it as well as use it to attack the body. He will mix in lead left hooks. He has crazy power in his short hooks with both hands. He knocked out Misha Cirkunov with a 6” punch. He will throw a left hook, straight-right combo. He will throw a lead right or overhand right. He has heavy leg kicks, and strong body kicks. He will throw the occasional head kick, especially when opponents are trying to circle off the cage. Volkan becomes very hittable when he gets tired & his shots come much more labored. He has a great chin; he is a long-time training partner of Anthony Rumble Johnson and taken some huge shots against OSP and DC. He shows good ability to fire back when he is getting lit up and is always dangerous even when he’s hurt. He will stick in the pocket with a high guard and try to find his own openings to land shots. His defense can leave a lot to be desired at times. He doesn’t have great movement and tends to just back straight up to the cage with a high guard when he gets stung. If he is going to KO/TKO you it’s usually going to be early. He has 5 KO/TKO’s in under 1 minute, and 11 overall all in round one. He has been finished by G&P TKO once vs Daniel Cormier.
Volkan was able to land a couple takedowns in his match vs Anthony Smith. Those are the only takedowns he’s ever landed in the UFC. He showed a decent explosive double leg & body lock trip. In top position, he has shown brutal ground & pound early in his career, but Smith was largely able to stay safe. His takedown defense is not very good especially after he gets tired. He is physically strong & does a good job of framing & throwing short punches & elbows. Hanging around in the clinch with Volkan is a scary proposition. He will be very aggressive with short hooks & uppercuts and put opponents out. We saw the brutal finish he had of Jimi Manuwa in similar fashion. Off Oezdemir’s back, he has looked like a fish out of water. He was dominated and finished by DC and has been submitted by Kelly Admundson & Anthony Smith. When Smith got the takedown in round 3 he was able to almost immediately take the back. Oezdemir showed some heart getting out of a deep rear naked choke, but Smith readjusted & ultimately got the tap. Oezdemir has one career submission & been submitted twice.
Ilir Latifi
Age: 35
Height: 5’8
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Allstars Training Center
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 7-4
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +125
Ilir Latifi will be getting a home game here in Sweden. He will need to atone for the last two times he has fought in Sweden in the UFC. He was TKO’d by Jan Blachowicz & lost a decision to Gegard Mousasi. Latifi was close to getting a title shot before he was derailed in his last match vs Corey Anderson. He is going to need to bounce back here to prove he is still a threat to the top of the division. Ilir Latifi is an explosive wrestler with one punch knockout power. Latifi likes to stay light on his feet, bounce on his toes, move on the outside, and looks to explode into an overhand right or a takedown attempt. He has very heavy low kicks as well. He has a very powerful overhand right and can finish the fight with that shot. He has very quick hands and will let go with a counter left hook, overhand right combo in the pocket, and is accurate with counters. He does a great job of catching kicks & returning with punches. Latifi has powerful body kicks when he throws them. He is very quick closing the distance with straight punches, and lands nice uppercuts in close. When he wants to, Latifi will just bull forward with punches into the clinch and really force a grappling match. Latifi struggles with fighters who are longer than him & can keep him at kicking range. He was very low output and allowed Pedro to control the center & walk him down on the feet. He got hit with a few kicks & shots from the outside, but he did a decent job of walking Pedro into his power & takedowns. He has 5 KO/TKO’s in his career and has been KO/TKO’d 3 times.
Latifi is a very strong wrestler, and one of the best grapplers in the division. He does a great job of using overhands to explode in & then will get into the body lock clinch. He does a great job of pushing and controlling opponents against the cage, while looking for singles & double legs. When he gets his hands clasped, they are most likely going for a ride, he has great slams on his singles & doubles, and can drive through on body locks. He will fake the overhand into a single leg entry where he does a great job of finishing. On top, he has big ground & pound from guard, and likes to move into half guard & side control where he can land heavy shots. He likes to attack with north south chokes, but he doesn’t have great control from that area and fighters are able to return to their feet against him. He does a good job of controlling an opponent’s wrist from half guard, and landing ground & pound when they can’t defend themselves. Daniel Cormier stated he is one of the strongest grapplers he has ever felt, and very difficult to takedown. He got a nice standing guillotine against OSP and choked him unconscious. It was more due to hurting St Pruex before than being good in BJJ. He has 5 submissions, and never been submitted himself. Latifi will need to get takedowns or land a big bomb to win this fight. I think he will be looking to close the distance with his big leg kicks & overhands. If he can land a couple overhands, I see him being able to get in on a takedown and get it to the ground. He needs to keep Volkan guessing and on the back foot. If he can drain the clock with top position, I think he will win the fight easily.
These guys are both coming off losses but Volkan is coming off 3 straight losses including two finishes. I think that is why we are getting the line we are. If this fight happened before those losses, I think Volkan would be closer to a -200 favorite here. But now people see some flaws and I believe recency bias is the reason this fight is almost a pickem’. I still think Volkan should be -150 or higher though and I believe he will be able to keep this fight standing where he will have the best chance of winning. He is much more active on the feet so I think a striking decision should go to Volkan based on skills and pace alone. I think he also has more KO power as well. Latifi is going to want to land takedowns here and that is his best path to victory. He only lands takedowns at a 32% accuracy though and Volkan stuffs 75% of takedowns attempted on him. I think he will be able to force Latifi to stand here and he lands more than 2x as many strikes per minute as Latifi does. I see Volkan either getting a KO on the feet in this match or winning a 30-27 or 29-28 decision. If he can’t stuff the takedowns, then the edge will shift to Latifi, but I don’t see Latifi landing more than 2-3 takedowns and I am not even sure he can get that many.
I do expect this fight to be decently owned because both are somewhat big names and we have been waiting for it to happen for a couple months now. However, I don’t think this is a fight we need to be targeting heavily and I am not against fading it if you are making 5 or less lineups. My preferred play is Volkan, but he needs a KO to score highly. Latifi could score highly with takedowns or a KO, but I don’t see him landing many takedowns or getting the KO. I could see this being a fairly boring standup fight where the winner scores ~60 points. I think either guy could get the KO and score highly that way, so I wouldn’t talk you out of rostering it. I will personally only have maybe 20% of this fight in my lineups and that will be mostly Volkan. I think Volkan is the only one I would consider in cash games as well, but he doesn’t have a great floor, I just feel good about him getting the win.
Winner – Volkan Oezdemir via Unanimous Decision
Eduardo Garagorri $8,400 vs Humberto Bandenay $7,800
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: Sok Thai
From: Uruguay
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 274
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: -115
Luiz Garagorri will be making his UFC debut in his home country with an undefeated record of 12-0. Garagorri has been fighting some very questionable competition. His last two wins have come against 0-0 fighters. Garagorri is a Muay Thai striker who transitioned to MMA. He looks to be a pretty dynamic striker. There isn’t a ton of footage on Garagorri, but he moves well, switches stances & has nasty kicks. He has nice long punch combinations. He has a nice jab and good one-twos. He has a nice rear uppercut, left hook combo. He has a nice left hook, right straight combination. He has really fast hand speed & will use a lot of feints & then explode into punches. He has excellent kicks. His leg kicks are nasty, and he has really nice round kicks to the body. He will throw nasty spinning back kicks to the body & head, that he throws extremely fast without any tell. He has 4 KO/TKO’s.
Luis Garagorri looks to actually not be a bad grappler from the limited amount I’ve seen. He won’t be offensive with his takedowns, but he has good takedown defense. He will reverse to top position & has devastating ground & pound. He will posture up with brutal elbows. His guard isn’t bad when he gets taken down. He will throw up decent triangles & attack with guillotines. He will jump guard on the guillotine, which I hope he won’t do in the UFC. He will belly down & come up into single legs & take top position. He has most of his wins via submission with 6.
Humberto Bandenay
Age: 24
Height: 6’1
Weight: 145
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Astra Fight Team
From: Peru
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 225
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -105
Humberto Bandenay has his job on the line in this fight. He has last back to back fights and needs to put up or shut up here. He is fast and dynamic with his punches and kicks early in fights. He has a nice straight-left hand and a solid jab. Overall, his boxing is weak though. If fighters can pressure & get inside, he’s hittable and struggles to get off. He has a nasty right kick to the legs body & head. He throws it heavy to finish fights. He does a good job of controlling distance and being able to slide out of the way of opponent’s shots and coming back with his own. He has been in some wars in Peru and has taken big shots and been able to eat them and battle back. He had a nasty head kick knockout against Martin Bravo. He can get tired and not move his feet enough and get tagged with shots against the cage. He has a good chin but was dominated in his last fight on the feet. Bandenay has 5 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by KO just one time via slam.
Bandenay has questionable takedown defense, but he is not bad off his back. He has good triangles and a fast armbar. When he’s tired he will just lay on his back & accept position losing the rounds. If anyone were to wrestle in this spot I think it would be Bandenay, but I don’t expect much grappling. He has decent takedowns himself and will explode on a double leg. On top, he is aggressive with ground and pound & submissions. He has a strong rear naked choke. He has 6 submissions, but he can be submitted and has been 4 times. He has been finished in 5 of his 6 losses.
Garagorri will be making his UFC debut here in his home country. He is an undefeated fighter and most of his wins have come in the first round. He doesn’t look great anywhere, but he does look well-rounded and he might look to mix in takedowns with his striking. His ground and pound with his elbows is what impressed me the most and if he can get on top of Bandenay and use that vicious GNP then I think he will finish with them. Bandenay is a finisher as well and he has finishing ability on the feet or the ground. He is the younger fighter too, so I would expect him to improve each time out. He is coming off a poor performance though and it is hard to trust him after that one. His first two UFC fights were very fast too and there wasn’t much to take away from them. I really don’t trust either guy enough to invest in them, so I will be staying away from this fight from a betting perspective. I am going to lean with Garagorri because he will have the home field advantage if this fight goes to decision. Either of these guys could get a KO or submission finish here, I just don’t feel confident picking who that would be, so I will say this goes all 3-rounds and I’ll side with the favorite.
On DraftKings, this is probably a good GPP fight to target. Neither guy is a big name, so I think they both go under owned this week. The FDGTD line is -245 and I think either guy could make a mistake and get finished early. I don’t feel confident about picking a side in this fight, but I do think it is an important fight to target in GPPs at their salaries. A finish from either guy probably gets a high score here and I think either guy could get 100+. My preferred play is going to be Garagorri but not enough where I will have 50% of him or anything. I do think this fight as a whole can be targeted in 50% of our lineups, but I would guess I will be something like 30% Garagorri and 20% Bandenay if that is the case for me. I won’t be using either guy in cash though because I can’t trust either enough for that and they both have low floors. I really only picked this to go to split decision because I don’t trust picking either guy to get the finish and I do think the fight will be pretty close as long as it lasts.
Winner – Luiz Garagorri via Split Decision
Vicente Luque $9,000 vs Mike Perry $7,200
Vincente Luque
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Blackzillians
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-2
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -220
Vicente Luque is a beast & has finished 5 consecutive fights. He isn’t getting a top 15 opponent, but it’s maybe the next best thing with a notable name & fan favorite in Mike Perry. Vincente Luque is a very good prospect. He is well-rounded, but his striking is what is impressive. He is very technical and long for the division, so he uses that by throwing a nice, snappy jab and inside and outside leg kicks. He likes to throw a jab to a straight or jab to an overhand combination and if he lands flush, he has one punch KO power. He is a good athlete and his hands are very fast and loose and it’s hard to see what he is going to throw next. He will attack with jumping knees when he gets opponents close to the cage. He will attack to the body with hooks and does a good job of mixing up his target and coming in on good angles. He has a hands high, come forward style and does a good job of cutting off the cage and making fighters fight off of their back foot. When he gets in the pocket, he will unload with overhand rights and straight-lefts. He has a good chin and is willing to take a shot to give one. In his last match he struggled a bit with a fighter who constantly pressured him & ate his best shots. Luque isn’t used to fighters taking his shots & not going down, and he took some bombs from Barberena, when Barberena was able to walk through his shots. Ultimately though, Luque still dug deep & found a way to finish him. Luque has 8 KO/TKO’s, including 5 knockouts in his last 6 wins. He has never been finished with strikes. He was dropped in his last fight, but I don’t think he was seriously hurt.
Vincente Luque has solid grappling skills, he has good takedown defense and good takedowns against the cage. He will go for singles and doubles against the cage and has decent body locks in the open mat. He has very nice submissions and his chokes are extremely dangerous. He has a nasty darce and anaconda choke. He has good top control and is very active with ground & pound and submissions. He has 6 career submissions & been submitted twice himself. His cardio is very good, and he keeps a heavy pace on fighters. He is a finisher having finished 15 of his 16 wins. He has finished all 9 of his UFC wins.
Mike Perry
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: Fusion X-Cel
From: Florida
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +180
Mike Perry bounced back from a loss to Cowboy Cerrone with a great win over the other Cowboy, Alex Oliveira. Everyone knows what Perry is at this point, and that’s a flamboyant, knockout artist. His last two wins have come by way of decision, and he’s improving a bit with his composure & game planning. In the end, Mike Perry is always going to be a kill or be killed type of fighter though & he has a perfect dance partner in this matchup. Perry is a bruiser who wants to walk opponents down and put his hands on them. He has one shot knockout power & has some brutal UFC knockouts. He has a decent jab & nice one-two. His right hand has big knockout power, especially his overhand & hook. He will throw a straight-right hand to a left hook combination. He will mix in lead elbows & uppercuts in close range. He will attack the body with jabs & straight-rights. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs & lead leg hook kicks. He can get very static & just stand in one spot without throwing much leaving him open to be hit. He is heavy on his lead leg & very hittable. He has been dropped in multiple UFC fights & his chin has taken a beating. He has always had a speed issue & struggled with fighters who use footwork & movement. He is willing to eat shots to give his own and won’t ever quit. Even if he’s dropped, he will get back up & continue to move forward. Perry has 11 KO/TKO’s in 13 wins. He has never been finished with strikes.
Perry is an underrated grappler. He is pretty explosive when closing the distance into the clinch. He disguises his entries with punches & is strong in the clinch. He has good cage control & will attack with nasty knees & elbows. He has multiple finishes in the clinch in the UFC. When he is in close range like that, he doesn’t have to find opponents & it only takes one. He has decent body locks & double legs. He is very strong in the clinch, and will get in on a single, elevate & slam opponents. He has good ground & pound, decent top control & floating ability. He will look to take the back. Against Luque, I’m not sure he will be in the clinch or on the mat, but I think it benefits him to have the fight there. I could see him landing a potential fight finishing shot off a break or in the clinch. He maybe will want to try to clinch Luque up, grind & make it dirty. He has good takedown defense, and I haven’t seen much off his back. He was submitted by Donald Cerrone and showed some greenness on the ground. That was the first time he was finished in his career. Perry has never gotten a submission.
This should be a fun one. Both of these guys have had some fun fights and are willing to brawl. Luque is the better fighter here, but Perry is a wild man with big power and he can knock anybody out. I think Luque is the better and more technical striker. He has more tools to use on the feet, he strikes at a higher rate and lands with a higher accuracy. He is also much better on the ground, and if this fight does hit the ground, I think Perry will be in trouble and Luque can find his way to a submission. This could be close on the feet though if it does turn into a brawl. If this fight is anything like the fight with Luque vs Barberena, then I think Luque gets knocked out here. I don’t think he can eat all the shots he ate in that fight against Perry. He is going to need to fight smart here, but if he can avoid getting into brawls and avoid the KO, then he should win this fight. I think it would be smart for him to look for takedowns early to make Perry waste energy getting back to his feet. If he does get takedowns in this fight, then I think he wins with a submission.
This is one of my favorite fights on the card to target for GPPs. I think either can be used in cash games but they both have very low floors, so I prefer GPPs for this fight. I will be close to all-in with my exposure though. My preferred play is Luque because he is good for 100+ basically any time he wins. He can score highly in a decision win, and he could get a KO or sub in this fight. I like him a lot and the only hard part is going to be picking which $9k guys into lineups when it comes to Luque lineups. Perry is one of my favorite underdogs to target as well because he could get a KO in any round and if he wins I think he is basically a lock for the nuts. If I am making 10 lineups, I am probably going 6 Luque and 4 Perry, but I would be all in for 10 lineups. With more than 10, I will avoid it in a couple lineups, but it is one of my favorite fights on the card to target and I think the winner is on the $25k lineup.
Winner – Vicente Luque via 1st round Submission
Valentina Shevchenko $9,600 vs Liz Carmouche $6,600
Valentina Shevchenko
Age: 31
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Peru
UFC Record: 6-2
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -1275
Valentina is one of the best female Muay Thai strikers on the planet. She has a record of 56-2 as a pro Muay Thai competitor and has transferred that style nicely to MMA. She is a phenomenal counter striker; her lead left, check hook is a thing of beauty. She does a great job of landing a straight-right hand to a left hook combination. She uses kicks to the legs and the body, and then will catch opponents sleeping and counter them with a perfect spinning backfist. She will throw a superman punch to a leg kick combination. She likes to throw the right hook to set up her straight-left and bing opponents with it. She likes to use a spinning back kick to move backwards. In Muay Thai, she has a lot of knockdowns with that technique. Her awareness of distance to return with a counter shot is second to none. She will slip and land hard overhands. She is always balanced and never puts herself out of position. She has strong and solid leg kicks. She exits out of danger after combinations super smooth. She does a good job of moving her head off the center line and not getting hit cleanly much. When she gets confidence, she will start to really walk opponents down and get them to open up with shots she can slip and counter. She was dropped by a fake jab, uppercut by Holly Holm. Valentina is not a one-shot striker either in terms of power, but I do feel she has more power in her strikes in this matchup. She has 5 TKO’s in her career and was finished one time by TKO by Liz Carmouche due to a cut.
Valentina is a great grappler. She has good clinch entries, where she will get good head position and land hard elbows and knees. She is very strong in this position and wears opponents out. She has nice hip tosses and trips in the clinch as well and is a good wrestler. She will shoot for single legs in open space, and she has a nice snatch single. She was able to set up an easy double leg with punches against Cachoeira and displayed some vicious ground & pound. She was able to get good posture in the guard and rain down nasty elbows and punches to the body & head. She really bludgeoned Cachoeira and it was hard to watch. She was able to get the crucifix position, and mount, landing a huge amount of ground & pound before getting the rear naked choke . She was able to get nice body lock & hip toss takedowns against Joanna. Shevchenko is coming off a devastating knockout of Jessica Eye & looks unbeatable.
Liz Carmouche
Age: 35
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 66”
Gym: Team Hurricane Awesome
From: California
UFC Record: 5-4
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +825
Liz Carmouche is getting her second title shot in the UFC in a rematch with Shevchenko. Carmouche’s striking is not very good in my opinion. She will throw a lot of un-setup leg kicks from the outside & the occasional body kick. She looked a bit sharper with her hands vs Maia. She threw some nice hook combinations in the pocket, and a couple nice one-twos. She landed a couple jab, overhand rights. She still is stiff & I don’t like her defense. Her head is stationary, and she seems to freeze a bit and anticipate getting hit. When she’s fighting moving backwards, she doesn’t have much & can get pieced up. Her striking is basically all to close the distance. She will throw superman punches to get in the clinch, along with overhand rights. She has 6 KO/TKO’s in her career & has never been finished by strikes. She is a military veteran & tough chick.
Carmouche is very physically strong & explosive in grappling situations. She doesn’t shoot many takedowns from the outside & likes to get her takedowns in the clinch. She has good, dirty boxing in the clinch & knees to the legs. She will bully opponents & has strong body lock trips. She does a good job of using big, winging shots in the pocket to get fighters thinking about the striking & ducking under into a body lock takedown. She will land directly in side control at times and will attack with elbows & knees to the body. She has good double leg takedowns against the fence. She has a quick mount take & will rain down big shots from there. She has strong cardio & can go all three rounds easily. She isn’t a big submission threat, and only has 2 career submissions. She has shown questionable BJJ in top position, leaving openings for submissions. She has worked on that & even competed in BJJ competitions. She has been submitted twice in her career. Liz Carmouche is going to have to find a way to get inside in this fight & ultimately get the fight to the mat.
These two fought once before in 2010 and Carmouche actually won that fight. I haven’t been able to find film on that fight, but I did hear Valentina was winning the fight and got cut with an up kick which stopped the fight. Shevchenko is by far the best fighter in this division and I don’t see her having a closely lined fight again for a while. Her current -1200 betting line indicates an implied probability of 92.34%. There isn’t really much edge to be found in a line like that. She should win this fight and she probably wins it easily, but weird things can happen in this sport and I wouldn’t want to lay any kind of juice like that. Liz is a strong wrestler and she might have success getting this fight to the ground, but I don’t see her winning 5 rounds with wrestling. On the feet, Shevchenko should cruise. I don’t think the striking will be close at all, but Liz is going to look to grind against the cage a lot and look for takedowns. She is strong so maybe she can land something heavy to knock Shevchenko out, but I don’t see that happening. I think Shevchenko can find a submission from her back or up against the cage as well. I think she is too good and too smart to lose this fight. But she could go into the fight injured, or she could accidentally knee Liz in the head while she is down and get DQ’d. Weird reasons like that are why I won’t be laying -1200 here on a straight bet. If you want to throw her into parlays for better odds then go for it, but it isn’t going to move the line a lot at these odds. I think Shevchenko can get a TKO or submission win here though so I don’t hate looking at the ITD line when it comes out. Her sister is coming off a submission win last week so I’d imagine she is coming in here looking for a finish as well.
I am not sure how I want to approach this fight on DK. I do like Valentina in all formats, and I think she finishes this fight. I also think she has 100+ point potential. The only issue is her cost on a card where I like all the $9k fighters. With the other guys on this card for cheaper, I think I will end up with less Valentina than I planned on a week or so ago. I do think she is the only “lock” on the card, but she isn’t a lock to score highly and if she doesn’t finish she probably won’t win anybody $25k. If Liz wins, she is going to be on the nuts. I just don’t think that happens, so I think we can fade her here. Ultimately, I don’t see me having a ton of this fight in my lineups, but both are in play and I wouldn’t talk you off using either. I also think you could use either in cash games or both. I am not against the stack this week, but I don’t like it. I also think we can avoid this fight in cash as well. Valentina is the safest win on the card though, so I think her as a cash game play would be my favorite way to target this fight personally.
Winner – Valentina Shevchenko via 2nd round Submission
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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