BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN 5 Location – Newark, New Jersey
Thanks for purchasing my UFC on ESPN 5 breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV in New Jersey. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $30k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Hannah Goldy $8,800 vs Miranda Granger $7,400
Hannah Goldy
Age: 27
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 61”
Gym: UFC Gym Winter Springs
From: Florida
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 43
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -150
Hannah Goldy is making her UFC debut coming off a win on the DWCS. She had a tough fight with veteran Kali Robbins but took a unanimous decision victory. She will be taking on another UFC newcomer here in Miranda Granger. For Hannah Goldy she is a big, strong fighter with an almost body builder type physique. She is super ripped. When you watch her first fight, she is very Robocop-ish & stiff, but her most recent fight she’s improved her fluidity a lot. She is definitely a striker & is going to want to keep this fight on the feet. She still doesn’t have the best footwork and is a bit plodding. When she gets inside she has very good hand speed & will let go with fast, straight punch combinations. She will mix hooks into her combinations. If opponents just stand in the pocket & trade with her she has power & a good chin. She has nice leg kicks. Her inside leg kicks are really nice. She will throw kicks to the body, head & likes throwing sidekicks to the body also. She still isn’t quite as fluid with her kicks. Overall her striking is still pretty basic. In her last fight she was getting tagged with hard shots & she didn’t really move her head. She will also hold her hands low & pull back with her chin high. She isn’t going to be able to get away with her style against higher level opponents & needs to improve. What she does have though is tremendous heart & cardio. She breaks fighters down with constant pressure & combinations. Goldy has 1 KO/TKO, but I would say her power is solid.
Goldy is a solid grappler. She is strong in the clinch. She has pretty nasty knees to the body. She has solid body lock takedowns, but she doesn’t have great top control. I feel that she should really work more on takedowns and top position control, because she is very heavy & strong and could develop great G&P. She does have great takedown defense & good ground & pound from top position. She doesn’t go for many takedowns, but she will snap opponents down with a front head lock and has a very heavy sprawl. I haven’t seen much from her off her back. Hannah Goldy kind of reminds me of a Hannah Cifers, but with less boxing technique & power. She has no submissions & never been submitted.
Miranda Granger
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 115
Reach: N/A
Gym: Charlie’s Combat Club
From: Washington
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 26
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +130
Miranda Granger is undefeated at 6-0 with 6 finishes. She has 5 first round finished & has never been to the third round. Granger looks pretty well-rounded. She has fast hand speed. She has a nice jab and a good left hook. She will throw a one-two or a jab, right hook. She likes to throw two or three straight-right hands in a row to close the distance. She will throw some nice outside leg kicks. She will throw some round kicks to the body as well. Overall her striking isn’t the greatest though. She will reach a lot to try to get in the clinch, isn’t the fastest & is stationary in her movement at times. She looks hittable to me, but no opponent has made her pay yet. She has one TKO which happened on the ground & has finished all her fights on the mat or in the clinch. Granger is 6-0.
Granger is a dangerous grappler. She likes to use her punches to close the distance & get double underhooks. She has nice knees to the body & head from that position. She is very dangerous in the clinch with guillotines. She will get a standing guillotine Jon Jones style & has a great squeeze. She has gotten two of those in her last three matches. When she gets ahold of that neck, she will attack with knees to the head as well. She doesn’t look to be the most physically strong fighter & her wrestling isn’t great. Fighters seem to be able to reverse her & muscle her around a bit along with take her down. Jamie Colleen was able to get a body lock takedown. Granger is good off her back though. She has a nice guard & throws up submissions quickly. She got an armbar quickly after being taken down in that match. She will look for body lock takedowns herself. She will work to the back & look for rear naked chokes. She likes to use her length on the feet to take the back standing. Overall, she doesn’t look for many takedowns though. She does look good in scrambles but doesn’t have the greatest top control. She is more of a fighter who likes to flow & scramble on the ground until she can get a dominant position. She is very dexterous with her legs & can take top position in weird ways. When she fought Jamie Thorton, she was on bottom in north south position. She was able to use her legs to roll over get her hooks in, flatten Thorton out & finish with strikes in mount. She reminds me of a Cynthia Calvillo on the ground a bit. Granger has 5 submissions in her career, 2 armbars 2 guillotines & a rear naked choke. If she can create grappling situations she is dangerous everywhere, whether it be the clinch, on top or on bottom. She is definitely going to be looking to close the distance & make this a grappling match. Her striking isn’t bad, and I think she is maybe smoother with her technique than Goldy. I do think Goldy is faster & throws better combinations, so the striking could be close & she needs to grapple to have a clear advantage.
This is a match between two undefeated prospects. Goldy looks to be the better striker and she even has a win over Gillian Robertson on her record. She is very strong and has power in her hands. She has solid boxing, but she looks pretty stiff because she has so much muscle. I do think she will have the striking advantage in this fight though and she should be looking to keep the fight at distance and work combinations with her striking. Granger is going to be looking to get this fight into the clinch and not let Goldy box her up. She looks very good in the clinch and is dangerous with submissions when she can get fights to the mat. But Goldy looks like the strongest fighter she has ever faced, and she may be able to shove her off and keep her from holding her against the cage. If Granger can get this fight to the ground she is very live for a submission I think, but if not, Goldy probably wins a striking based decision.
On DraftKings, Granger is actually my preferred play. The line keeps moving in her favor and she has the higher ceiling in this fight. Her ITD line as the underdog is +290 but Goldy ITD is +440. I don’t see Goldy scoring high here unless she gets a knockout, so she might be priced out of my lineups at $8.8k. Granger is interesting at $7.4k because she could get a submission in any round here and if she can get it at that price then she is going to have a shot of being on the $30k lineup. I don’t mind her in cash or GPPs and I like her more and more throughout the week. I am going to probably be overweight to the field on Granger here, but I might full fade Goldy.
Winner – Hannah Goldy via Unanimous Decision
Claudio Silva $9,400 vs Cole Williams $6,800
Claudio Silva
Age: 36
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: Nova União
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: 39
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W13
Betting Odds: -420
Claudio Silva will be looking to run his UFC win column to 5. He was set to face a tough test in Ramazan Emeev, but Emeev has had to pull out. Silva will now be fighting UFC newcomer Cole Williams. Silva isn’t much of a striker & really a specialist. He is a southpaw. He will throw one-twos and round kicks to the body. He likes to throw a jab or a one-two, body kick. He actually has a pretty accurate, straight-left hand. He does a good job of feinting a level change and throwing the straight-left hand. He will throw a long, right hook, straight-left hand. He will close the distance with wide, looping hooks right into takedown attempts. He is a bit slow & a plodder and definitely gasses out when he can’t get takedowns. He is very tough & is very opportunistic. He does a great job of weathering a storm, finding his takedown and getting the finish or the round. I do think he actually has solid pop in his shots & earned Leon Edwards respect on the feet. He is not looking to knock you out though, and only has two career TKO’s. He has won 13 consecutive fights, and his only loss is via disqualification.
Claudio Silva is a great grappler. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Silva does a good job of getting inside with his strikes to get the fight to the ground. He will get in on double legs. He has a good single leg & has great grip strength when he gets ahold of the leg. He will get in on a double leg, come up into a body lock & will chain takedowns together against the fence. He will pull guard if he feels he can’t finish the takedown. He is very heavy on top & has old school Jiu-Jitsu. He has great guard passing & will methodically move to dominant positions. In half guard, he will look for arm triangles & land short punches and elbows. He has a quick mount take & has good ground & pound on top. He will force opponents to give up the back, where he has great control, will flatten opponents out and try to lock in rear naked chokes. In his last fight Danny Roberts was able to reverse position & landed some big ground & pound on Silva. Silva showed a ton of toughness & heart getting an armbar late in the fight. He has 8 career submissions, and has never been finished. Silva is going to want to close the distance & get this to the ground like always. He has a very taxing style & if he can lean & hang on Williams, I see Williams getting tired. I think if Silva gets a takedown, he probably will be able to win the fight. Even if he doesn’t submit Cole I think he will make him tired on short notice & start to take over. If he can take Williams down consistently he will probably find a submission.
Cole Williams
Age: 35
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: N/A
Gym: N/A
From: Iowa
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 167
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: +335
Cole Williams is an 11-1 fighter taking this fight on short notice. He has won 9 fights in a row. Williams has had a very odd career. He became a pro in 2008, started 6-1 & was fighting better competition then, than now. He defeated a 10-0 fighter in 2011, but then took 3 years off. Since he’s returned in 2014, he is 5-0. He hasn’t fought great competition since returning, and still is fighting very infrequently. He hasn’t fought in 11 months, and just twice in 4 years. At 35 years of age, he has to make his run now to have any chance of a good UFC career. Cole Williams does look like a solid striker. Williams has a nice jab, and heavy leg kicks. His straight-right hand is very powerful. He slips & rips very well. He has nice uppercuts. He will hold his hands low, almost to goad opponents to throw so he can slip & counter. He has good head movement & fast hand speed. He is hittable though but has a solid chin from the looks of it. He took some bombs in his last fight and continued to walk forward & stay in the pocket. If this fight stays on the feet, Silva will definitely be the lesser striker. I see Williams trying to attack with the uppercut a lot to time the level changes of Silva. Williams has 4 KO/TKO’s & never been finished with strikes.
Williams looks to be a pretty decent grappler. He is physical & has good body lock takedowns. He will control opponents in the clinch & attack with punches off the breaks. He has solid timing on singles & doubles. Against low level fighters I have seen him get dominant positions and finish fights in top position, but his top control isn’t the best. He does have a flying armbar submission in his career also. Williams has 4 submissions & was submitted in his one loss. I haven’t seen much of his takedown or submission defense, which will for sure be tested here. To me, Williams has to go for broke in round one, walk Silva down, get in his face, let his hands go & try to knock him out. If he can get Silva to panic wrestle, he could land an uppercut & take Silva out.
Silva is coming into this fight on a 13-fight win streak and he is 4-0 in the UFC. He is the biggest favorite on this card and for good reason. He is a stud at BJJ and he is going to have a massive edge on the mat. Cole Williams was actually on Bellator’s reality TV show, Fight Master, back in 2013. He did lose on that show to Joe Riggs in an exhibition match, but aside from that he has only lost once, and it was 10 years ago. Not against great competition though and this will be his hardest fight to date. If he can keep this fight standing, then he can keep it close, but I think a knockout is his only real chance. I don’t see Silva standing for 15-minutes and when the fight hits the ground it is going to be Silva’s world.
Silva is my preferred play here and he is my favorite play on the board. The only issue is going to be affording him at $9.4k. If I can afford him, I want him, and I think he will be in more than half my lineups. I also think he will be a lock for my cash lineup. His advantage on the ground is what I am chasing here and if he looks for takedowns in round 1 then I think he gets an early sub for over 10x his salary. Silva ITD is -150 and that might not be high enough. I like him to get a win and score highly here so I would guess he is in close to 60-65% of my lineups. I really have no interest in Williams other than a hedge play or a low owned GPP punt.
Winner – Claudio Silva via 2nd round Submission
Mara Romero Borella $8,700 vs Lauren Murphy $7,500
Mara Romero Borella
Age: 33
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Italy
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -185
Mara Romero Borella is coming off an upset victory of Taila Santos & has a UFC record of 2-1. Borella is flat footed and relies heavily on opponents closing the distance where she can counter. She will throw leg kicks, and a straight-right hand. She will throw a straight-right, left hook combination. She will throw right hook, leg kick combinations. She likes to close the distance with straight punch flurries, but they are a bit sloppy. She is low output & plods into range. She isn’t super dangerous with her striking with only 3 KO/TKO’s in her career. She has been finished 3 times via KO/TKO.
Borella is a very aggressive & physical fighter. She likes to duck under, get double underhooks & drive her opponents to the ground. She isn’t very explosive, so she doesn’t shoot many takedowns, and fighters have to close the distance for her, for her to take them down. She doesn’t have the fastest feet & has to do a lot of reaching to get into the clinch, which is easy to defend. If she can get on top, she is strong with heavy pressure. She has good pressure passes and will methodically work from half guard, to mount, to the back, where she has a good rear naked choke. She has 4 career submissions and been submitted 1 time in her career. This fight is just going to come down to who is the better grappler to me. I don’t think Murphy has the foot speed or striking to keep Borella off her. I think it’s going to be Borella closing the distance, pushing her against the cage & the battle will be won from there. If she can keep control there, land short punches, knees & eventually get her takedowns, she will have success. She is very aggressive & kept Taila Santos against the cage for a majority of her last fight.
Lauren Murphy
Age: 36
Height: 5’8
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: 45
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +160
Lauren Murphy is making her return after a pretty lengthy layoff. She had a fight scheduled vs Ashlee Evans Smith in February but had to pull out due to injury. She hasn’t fought in 14 months. Murphy is an average fighter in my opinion, but very tough. Murphy has a good jab, and a nice jab, left hook. She will throw one-twos, and double jab, twos. She has a nice overhand right. She will throw some occasional leg kicks, but not many. She mainly uses her hands on the feet. She doesn’t throw many combinations and prefers to stick & move. She doesn’t have good hand speed, or power & she struggles to keep these girls off of her. Sijara Eubanks in her last match didn’t respect her power at all and was walking her down throwing bombs. Murphy is very hittable. She doesn’t move her head & she moves backwards awkwardly. She definitely can take a shot. She will sit in the pocket & trade hooks if she’s backed up. Murphy is very durable and has never been finished. She has 7 KO/TKO’s, and finished most of her fights with G&P.
Lauren Murphy is a pretty good wrestler. She sets up her single & double legs with her strikes well. She will drive to the cage & chain wrestle to finish as well. On top, she is very active & throws a lot of ground & pound. She will slowly wear on opponents, work to more dominant positions & finish. She finishes the majority of her fights with G&P and has no submissions. In her last match, where she fought a grappler, she did well to me. Eubanks is big for the division & very strong. Murphy was able to defend the majority of her takedowns and was very active in her guard. She was attacking with triangles & a rubber guard to control posture. She was manipulating Eubanks posture with her butterfly guard & landed some nice hammerfists & elbows off her back, along with a nice up kick. She couldn’t get-up off bottom though. In this match she will have to defend takedowns again most likely & maybe even try to put Borella on her back. Murphy comes to fight, she won’t break or back down & has cardio to go hard three rounds. Murphy should try to potshot & move here. I am not sure she can implement that game plan, but if she can stick & move that’s the way she could win. I think she should try to time takedowns of her own & see how Borella is off her back. Taila Santos was able to take her back in her last match & she had been submitted once. If she gets taken down, she should try to stand up & not hang out on her back.
This is a close fight and both ladies have similar stats. I think the line is right on this one though. I highly doubt we see a finish here on either side, so I expect a 15-minute decision and both fighters could have their moments. I think the striking will be close, but I see Borella landing at the higher rate and I think she has the better defense and can avoid more strikes. I think whoever can land takedowns in this fight is going to be the key though. I do think they are pretty 50/50 in the grappling department, so I am not sure who will have more success there, but I do favor Borella slightly on the feet, so I am going to lean with her as my pick to win here. I think both fighters will land takedowns at points in this fight, but I think the striking from Borella is what gets her a close win on the judges’ scorecards.
I am going to keep this one short. I have no interest in this fight in any format. Sure, it could end up on the optimal lineup, but I don’t think that is likely unless the underdog wins, and I don’t really want to invest in Murphy here. The line for this fight going to decision is -390 and I don’t expect either fighter to land a lot of takedowns. I think this is going to be a full fade fight for me this week. There are 4 fights on this card I want to target both sides of, so I am going to need to favor more fighters than usual to get more leverage on those 8 fighters I want to target. I wouldn’t talk you off using either side if you have a strong read but I think we have a low scoring fight here and I think the favorite gets it.
Winner – Mara Romero Borella via Unanimous Decision
Jordan Espinosa $8,200 vs Matt Schnell $8,000
Jordan Espinosa
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Luttrells MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -120
Jordan Espinosa was successful in his UFC debut. He won a close decision over Eric Shelton who is a tough fighter. He has won 5 consecutive fights including two finishes in the DWCS. Espinosa is super-fast & explosive. He has a hands down style & likes to bounce around & jump in with shots. He has a really nice heavy jab. He will throw nice leg kicks. He has nice, straight & overhand rights. He will throw one-twos. He will throw straight-right hands to the body. He does have a nice check left hook going backwards & dropped his last opponent with it. He will throw nice body & head kicks. His head kicks come very fast, he had a nice head kick knockout of Nick Urso on the DWCS. He will throw the head kick after his one-twos. When he can’t get the fight to the mat and is being out struck, he can panic a bit. He can start to shoot takedowns from too far outside & flop to his back. He doesn’t have much boxing at all & really is trying to be all the way out until he can enter with a long punch, kick or takedown. He doesn’t throw in combination very often. He has two career KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Jordan Espinosa is a former college wrestler, with some Jiu-Jitsu skills. He doesn’t tend to work in the clinch much, but he has nasty knees to the body. He is explosive & has good double leg takedowns. He will dig an underhook & and land a trip takedown or drop down for a double. He will shoot single legs as well. On top, he has decent ground & pound elbows, but is mainly look for submissions. He has very good guard passes & will athletically jump from guard to side control. He is very fast in the scrambles & floats well on top as opponents move on bottom. He can get taken down himself, but overall, he has good takedown defense. He can be pushed up & controlled against the cage. Off his back he does a good job of scrambling & returning to his feet. He is always looking to get to the darce position & that is his go to submission. He is very good at jumping on darces after he hurts an opponent. He has 5 career darces & 7 submissions overall. Espinosa should look to put Schnell on his back here & finish with ground & pound.
Matt Schnell
Age: 29
Height: 5’8
Weight: 125
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +100
Matt Schnell has rattled off three consecutive UFC wins. He is coming off the biggest win of his career vs Louis Smolka. He was able to submit Smolka who is a respected grappler. Schnell is pretty technical as a striker & going to be the better striker in this matchup. Schnell is light on his feet & has solid footwork. He has a nice body & head jab. He has a very nice straight-right hand lead. He will throw a lot of right hooks as well. He will throw a double jab, right hook. He has good leg kicks & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw a straight-right, left uppercut, straight-right combo. He has good hand speed & closes the distance with fast, straight punches. He has nice high kicks & front kicks to the body & head. He does a good job of catching kicks & returning with punches. He is a strong counter striker. He will slip the jab & throw uppercut, straight-right hand combos. He will also throw nice counter, fade away left hooks. He does a solid job of moving his head when he enters into range, but it stays on center line too long at times after he throws his strikes. When fighters get inside they can hit him clean with straight punches. He is a black belt in karate & very fast in & out. On the feet he’s going to be the better striker. He is a bit chinny, and if Espinosa lands clean he could hurt Schnell. Schnell doesn’t have a lot of power & only two career KOs. Schnell has been finished twice by KO/TKO.
Schnell is a good grappler, and it will be interesting how the Jiu-Jitsu will play out. Schnell does a good job of getting double underhooks & pushing opponents to the cage. He will shoot good timed double legs, but he is not a very active wrestler. He will shoot at the end of rounds to try to steal or seal the round. He also seems to like to wrestle in the third round. He stands tall & fighters can get in on his legs. Hector Sandoval, who has a similar style of movement & blitzing in, was able to easily take him down with double legs. He has solid takedown defense against the cage. He will attack with darces also, but he can end up on his back hunting for the submission. He will attack with a nice guillotine to try to counter as well. Off his back he will throw up triangles & armbars. He got knocked out with very short hammerfists against Hector Sandoval which was a little eye opening. He will attack with submissions at the expense of position & can hold on to submissions for too long. I do feel Schnell most likely can get takedowns, and this fight could come down to if Espinosa can get-up, submit or sweep. Schnell does have good cardio and can go all three rounds at the same pace. Schnell has 7 career submissions. He has been submitted twice himself. Schnell has to stay on his feet & be technical. He needs to work behind long punches & leg kicks to slow the movement of Espinosa. Schnell has an excellent lead left hook. He needs to walk Espinosa down & look to catch him as he closes the distance. If he can time Espinosa as he’s coming in he could get a knockout victory.
This should be a fun fight and both guys are well-rounded. I think we could see a good mixture of striking and grappling in this fight and I don’t think either guy has a big advantage anywhere it goes. I think Schnell is the better overall striker and is more technical. Espinosa could have more punching power though and the better chin, he also might be the guy striking at a higher rate. I think Espinosa could be the better offensive wrestler, but Schnell looks to be more dangerous with submissions. I like the improvements we have seen from Schnell though, so I have to favor him here slightly. I don’t see him dominating this fight anywhere, but he could get a finish on the feet or on the mat. I think this could also be a close decision if it does go all 3-rounds but from judging them by their talent alone I have to side with Schnell to get a decision win here.
Fight Goes To Decision is -180 for this fight and that is what is taking me off it as the week moves on. My preferred play here is Schnell, but I am not against using either side. I like Schnell more for cash games and I will have more of him in GPPs, but I don’t see this fight making more than 20% of my lineups. Maybe 10% Schnell and 5% Espinosa. If we don’t see a finish in this fight, I think the winner probably scores under 10x their salary in a close fight. There could be some solid grappling and transitions in this fight so that is why I don’t want to full fade it, but I think there are better fights to focus on. This is the mid-range fight of the week, so it does fit nicely into lineups, but I don’t see either guy having much of a shot at 100+ points here.
Winner – Matt Schnell via Unanimous Decision
Antonina Shevchenko $8,600 vs Lucie Pudilova $7,600
Antonina Shevchenko
Age: 34
Height: 5’8
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Kyrgzstan
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 22
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -140
Antonina Shevchenko was a heavy favorite in her last match but lost. She looked very green & allowed herself to get dominated on the mat. Just like her sister, Shevchenko is a striker & Muay Thai World Champion. She has fast hands, a good jab and right hand. She has nice leg kicks and hard front kicks to the body. She has a good lead and counter left hook. She has heavy head kicks, and good body kicks. She will keep heavy volume on opponents and stays at her range. In her last match she struggled with forward pressure & Modafferi was able to land some decent shots that got Shevchenko’s attention. She got backed to the cage & didn’t angle or circle off well. Shevchenko doesn’t look to have big power & opponents can walk through her shots. She has two career KO/TKO’s. She has never been finished by strikes, but I feel her chin is questionable.
Shevchenko is nasty in the clinch and her grappling looks impressive. She is very strong and when she gets a hold of the Muay Thai plum, she will land heavy knees to the body and head, and also nasty elbows. She has great elbows in close range and cuts fighters faces up. She has ok takedown defense. She will sprawl, get double underhooks, reverse and get on top herself. She has nice elbows on the ground, great cardio and will continue to land knees and or ground & pound until she finishes the fight. Off her back, I saw her get beat up a bit & mounted by a fighter on the regional scene in 2017. In her last fight she showed bad chain wrestling against the cage. She was taken down at will & looked very green on her back. She couldn’t stand up & gave up dominant positions. In this fight she’s facing more of a striker, but you have to imagine she will try to exploit that weakness of Shevchenko. Shevchenko has no submissions & has never been submitted.
Lucie Pudilova
Age: 25
Height: 5’8
Weight: 125
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: KBC Pribram
From: Czech Republic
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +120
Lucie Pudilova is coming off a close decision loss to the next title challenger, Liz Carmouche. She was out grappled & basically just held on the mat. Pudilova is a strong striker herself & in my opinion, she hits harder & is just meaner than Antonina. This will be Pudilova’s second fight at 125 lbs & she should be more accustomed to the weight class. Pudilova has a nasty jab & is a long, powerful striker. She will throw hard one-twos down the middle. She dropped Sarah Moras multiple times with punches, and Moras is one of the bigger 135ers in the UFC. I expect her power to be amplified at 125. She has a nice left hook & good overhand right. She will throw a jab, overhand right combination. She keeps heavy forward pressure & wears opponents out with a steady stream of volume. She will throw occasional leg & body kicks. She will throw front kicks to the body as well. She has nice spinning back kicks to the body & head. She throws nice front kicks to the body. She loves to fight & has no problem going to war. When she gets hit, she likes to immediately try and get it back. Her hand speed is elite & she has great accuracy on her right straight. She is the vastly superior striker & if she can stay composed, keep the distance with her punches, it is her fight to lose. She has 2 KO/TKO’s in her career & has never been finished.
Pudilova is a solid grappler, and really addressing that part of her game. She was exploited a bit in her last fight, but she can be offensive with her grappling in this matchup. She is nasty in the clinch & very active, she will throw hard elbows & knees. She has very good takedown defense. She has a heavy sprawl and will make you pay for takedown attempts with hard elbows. She also can reverse position, getting on top where she has aggressive G&P. On social media she trains a lot of wrestling & this may be the fight she pulls it out. Off her back she can get controlled, and held down, but she has good defense and will attack with triangles. She needs to mix it up in this match. Pudilova has 2 submissions and has never been submitted. She has phenomenal cardio and pushes a hard pace.
I fully expect to see a 15-minute striking match here. I don’t think either fighter gets a finish and I don’t think they look for takedowns either. I think Shevchenko is the more well-rounded striker and should be the more technical fighter at range. Pudilova is going to be the better boxer and will look to make this more of a dirty fight and not let Shevchenko get too comfortable at range. I think she will look to clinch up a lot and maybe push Shevchenko against the cage. If she does want to go strike for strike at range, I think she is going to lose this fight. However, if she comes into this fight with a good game plan I think she can get the upset here and I am going to side with her as my pick. I think her boxing will give Shevchenko problems and I haven’t seen enough from Shevchenko to justify this line even against another striker. This is not a confident pick, but I am going to side with Pudilova to win a 29-28 decision.
Fight Goes To Decision is -425 for this fight. That makes Schevchenko a full fade for me here because of her price. If she doesn’t get a finish I don’t think it is likely she lands on the $30k lineup. I think Pudilova has a shot at $7.6k if she can get the win here, but I don’t see her having a high ceiling either where there are dogs on this card who could finish and finish early. This is another fight I am going to look to avoid for the most part, but I do have some interest in Pudilova and I think she is a fine cash game play as well. If she wins I don’t know that she even gets 10x here, but she is a live dog.
Winner – Lucie Pudilova via Unanimous Decision
Salim Touahri $8,300 vs Mickey Gall $7,900
Salim Touahri
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Poland
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 256
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -125
Salim Touahri is still in search of his first UFC win. He has lost his first two UFC fights vs tenured veterans. He is now getting the complete opposite in a young prospect. Prior to the UFC, Salim had a lot of flashy finishes and will be looking to return to those ways. Touahri is going to look to keep it standing here. Touahri has the better striking in the matchup. He has a nice jab to the body and head, and a very good left hook. He will throw the left hook to the body as well. He will throw nice left hook, right straight to the body combination. He has nice uppercut counters and can land them while moving backwards. He will throw heavy inside leg, body & head kicks, but not often. Touahri has decent footwork & circles away from his opponent’s power hand. His last match though, he was being much more flat footed, throwing feints to try to draw out counters. His defense is not very good. He doesn’t move his head & his chin is high when he comes in with the left hook. If opponents can slip it & return or come over the top they can connect flush. He got dropped that way in his last fight against Nakamura. Touahri will also duck his head when he punches at times, leaving him susceptible to uppercuts. Touahri does have a good chin & will recover quickly. He has taken some big shots against Warrley Alves & Keita Nakamura who are clearly better strikers than Gall in my opinion. Touahri has been knocked out one time. He has 6 knockouts & flashed big power on the regional circuit.
Touahri isn’t a grappler but showed improved takedown defense in his last match. With another training camp at ATT, it should look even better. He knows Gall is going to be looking for the takedowns, so his camp should have emphasized that during training. He will stuff takedowns with double underhooks & break off the clinch with knees to the body. He will try to control opponents against the cage, & land short knees to the legs, and body. He usually only does this to recover after taking a big shot or rest. He stopped all the takedowns of veteran Keita Nakamura. When he was taken down by a black belt in Warrley Alves, he was able to use the cage to get back to his feet. He needs to just avoid the wild shots of Gall, walk him down, and stuff the takedowns. If he can keep it standing, he’s clearly the better striker & should win the exchanges. Gall gassed out quickly in his last fight & a good body puncher like Touahri may make that happen again.
Mickey Gall
Age: 27
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Miller Brothers MMA
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 185
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +105
Mickey Gall has lost some luster along with two of his last three fights. He started his UFC career 3-0 with 3 rear naked choke finishes but has since stumbled. Two of the opponents he defeated in the UFC, we don’t even have to discuss. He is coming off a beatdown at the hands of Diego Sanchez. He was finished for the first time in his career in the second round. He is back in New Jersey for this camp, after having a couple in California. He is training with Jim Miller who is also preparing for this card, so he has a good body to work with there. I heard in an interview though, him talking about wanting to be in Jersey for the summer. There’s nothing wrong with that, but maybe he’s not fully invested. Gall is still very green as a striker. In his last fight he landed some decent shots early. He threw some nice kicks, straights & uppercuts. He has shown some power in his right hand, dropping Mike Jackson with a right hook & dropping Sage Northcutt with an overhand right. He will try to throw his jab out there, but it lacks the snap, & opponents can easily counter him off it. He hasn’t gauged distance very well in previous fights & will be tagged with shots. He also doesn’t know how to strike moving backwards & opponents can land longer combinations against him. He seems to get uncomfortable when he gets backed to the fence and will turn his back & run away. He does have a good chin, and attitude. He doesn’t mind getting hit & will brush it off when he eats big shots. He is very confident and has a bravado in the cage. He doesn’t have any KO/TKO’s & was finished by strikes for the first time in his last fight.
Mickey Gall is a good, but not great grappler. He is actually a decent offensive wrestler. He has solid single & double legs. In top position, he really is always looking to take the back. He likes to move to side control and look for guillotines or to take the back. He will take mount & force opponents to turn with ground & pound. When he gets the back, he is very good at finishing the fight. His takedown defense is terrible though, almost nonexistent. I don’t think he will have to worry about that much in this matchup, but he was finished with G&P in his last fight. Sage Northcutt was able to stand up from under him a couple times, and Randy Brown controlled him on top. He is a good submission fighter, but not elite. All 5 of Mickey Gall’s wins are via rear naked choke. Gall is going to have to come forward, use his speed and size advantage to back Touahri up & get in on the legs or the clinch. If he gets on top and takes the back, he has a chance to finish.
This is a striker vs grappler matchup. Touahri is going to look to keep this fight standing where he will have a big edge. Gall will be looking to get this fight to the ground and use his Jiu-Jitsu to get a submission. Whoever can control where this fight takes place will win. If Touahri can stuff takedowns, then he should win on the feet and probably even knock Gall out. If he can’t stuff takedowns then Gall is probably going to get a submission, if not then he will use grappling to win a decision. I am going to lean with the striker here though because I think he can work his way back to his feet if he is taken down and I think he can knock Gall out. I think if you like Gall in this spot you should just take him ITD or by submission to get better odds that way. I don’t see him hanging at all on the feet and if he wins I believe it will be a submission. If he doesn’t get the submission, I think Touahri wins.
This is where the card starts getting interesting on DraftKings. My preferred play here is going to be Touahri, but I want to target this fight pretty heavily because I do think we get a finish here. This is also a mid-range fight and if we see a finish then there is a good chance it could be on the winning lineup. I don’t want to trust either guy enough to use it in cash, but this is a great GPP fight IMO. If Touahri wins, it could be a knockout and at $8.3k he could be on the optimal with it coming in any round, but if it is in round 1 or 2 then he has a good shot. If Gall wins, it will be through grappling and any win from him could be a high scoring win. I like both guys a good bit here and it will come down to who fits in the lineup. This fight will probably be in half or more of my GPP lineups though.
Winner – Salim Touahri via 2nd round (T)KO
Darko Stosic $8,400 vs Kennedy Nzechukwu $7,800
Darko Stosic
Age: 27
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Cro Cop Top Team
From: Serbia
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 80
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -130
Darko Stosic is looking to bounce back after his first career UFC loss. He had his 9-fight win streak snapped. This fight is a fight to figure out which fighter is going to be a prospect, and which fighter might be a fraud. Darko Stosic, previous to Clark, had fought a lot of questionable competition. Stosic is the power guy here & has solid punching power. He is more of a flat footed, low volume counter striker. He has powerful leg kicks. Stosic has big power in his right hand. He will counter with straight & overhand rights. He will try to counter over the top with left hooks also. Stosic really struggles with quick fighters who can stick & move. He will almost look frozen in front of fighters as they land & get out. In round two against Devin Clark, I am not sure if Stosic even threw 10 punches in around 3 minutes on the feet. I don’t think he landed any strikes on the feet in round 2 at all. He was getting frustrated & trying to goad Clark into brawling with him. Clark was definitely respecting his power, and not engaging in boxing range much at all. Stosic loads up all his shots & while he’s explosive, it’s easier to avoid. He really lands his best shots in the clinches & off the breaks on the feet. He did explode in with big hooks in his last match in the last 30 seconds trying to take Clark out. If he showed that aggression more often he would be a much better fighter. I am not sure he has the cardio for that. Stosic has a good chin & will eat shots & continue to come forward. He did get dropped by a jab against Clark, but it was more of a flash knock down. He has been finished once in his career by TKO. Stosic has 8 KO/TKO’s, & if he lands one of those haymakers on an opponent he will put them out.
Stosic is the better grappler in this matchup. He is solid in the clinch. He gets double underhooks, attacks with hard elbows & explosive combinations off the break. He will open up with heavy straights & hooks. He has strong takedown defense & will use it to land knees to the body & press opponents to the cage. He got a big explosive double leg slam in his last match & largely out grappled a former college wrestler in Devin Clark. Stosic has good top pressure & big ground & pound elbows from the guard. He doesn’t look to pass much & prefers to just stay in inside his opponents guard & work. If you can force Stosic to work in the grappling though as far as defend takedowns or stand up from under him, he gets very tired. He isn’t a submission threat with just one in his career. In this fight Stosic isn’t going to have to worry about someone shooting in on his legs & will probably be the one trying to clinch & out Kennedy against the cage. Stosic struggles with Clark’s ability to change levels as he tried to get inside & he got tired defending. Stosic is going to need to be the fighter going forward in this matchup. He can’t allow himself to get backed up & be in the kicking range of Nzechuwu. He has to trying to slip a punch from Kennedy & come over the top with a powerful counter, or put him against the cage. As a guy who already struggles with pot shotters, he is now at a 7” reach disadvantage here. If Stosic can get top position he will probably have a big advantage, and I see him having the most success with his short range power & explosiveness on his feet against the cage. If he can get takedowns I could see him taking a decision, but if this is a standup fight I think he will need to get the knockout.
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Age: 27
Height: 6’5
Weight: 205
Reach: 83”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Nigeria
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 141
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +110
Kennedy Nzechukwu suffered his first career loss in his UFC debut. He was en route to a decision victory vs Paul Craig, but fell victim to Craig’s vintage, late third round triangle choke. He is still very green, but training at a great gym, and is a great athlete. He is 6’5 with an 83” reach & has an excellent frame for the division. Nzechukwu is a southpaw with loads of potential in my opinion. He likes to use his lead hand to control distance & drop his straight-left hand in. He has a nice jab. He will throw a right hook at times. Nzechukwu has really nice rear leg attacks. He has strong body & head kicks, along with a nice step-in knee. He has very good forward pressure & cuts the cage off well. He really is only looking to throw his straight-left hand & kicks standing up. He has solid defense & is composed, rarely getting hit. He can be very low volume at times & just walk opponents down without throwing. Due to always trying to maintain range with his lead hand open, he eye pokes a lot. He got a point taken in his last match after three eye pokes. He looked like he was getting distracted by the fouls & arguing with the ref & Craig. He needs to have a cleaner performance this time out. Nzechukwu has a lot of physical advantages on the feet, size, quickness, athleticism, and reach. He has ok power, but with his knees & kicks he can end anyone’s night. Nzechukwu has 4 KO/TKO’s in 6 wins.
Nzechukwu isn’t a grappler but is improving rapidly in that aspect. Even though he was submitted in his last match, he showed major strides in his wrestling. He was able to defend all of Paul Craig’s takedown attempts. Kennedy was able to make Craig pay for a double leg against the cage with elbows, cutting Craig open. When Paul Craig would pull guard, Nzechukwu showed off some nice G&P from top position. He landed some big hammerfists & elbows, and for the most part won the grappling exchanges. I doubt he is very good off of his back yet and won’t want to be there in his fights. He showed some poor fight IQ, staying on the ground with Paul Craig & paid for it. He was caught in a triangle late in the fight & submitted. It’s no shame getting submitted by Paul Craig, & I thought Kennedy faired pretty well considering his experience level. Nzechukwu isn’t a submission threat with zero in his career. The loss to Craig was the first submission loss of his career. Kennedy has great cardio for a HW & will walk opponents down the entire fight. He needs to make Stosic go backwards, control the center & push the pace. He should look to attack the legs & body of Stosic early with kicks to slow him down & take away some of his power. He should show him the knee early to make him hesitant to try to get in the clinch, use his jab, straight punches, kicks & movement to win the fight. He probably will have to defend some takedown attempts in this match also & needs to keep it standing. I think the more likely fighter to get a knockout would be Stosic, but if Kennedy is to get a knockout I see it being with a knee.
These are two big, light heavyweights. Stosic looks to have more power but Kennedy is going to be 5-inches taller and hold a 7-inch reach advantage here. He should also be the more active striker. Either guy could get a knockout though and both have one shot power. Stosic should look for takedowns in this fight and if he can get Nzechukwu on his back then he should be able to land ground and pound without being in any danger himself. He doesn’t look to be a good wrestler though, it’s more just his strength and power that allows him to drive through opponents and get them to the mat. I think that is why the odds are favoring him though. Kennedy is very green as a fighter in general, but I think he has the better striking and his pace is what I like more if this does go to the judges. The worry is him being put on his back or Stosic landing a heavy overhand and knocking him out. This is a dog or pass fight for me though no matter who the underdog is. I wouldn’t trust either guy enough to lay juice, so I would pick the underdog either way. That is Nzechukwu, so I am going to roll with him and I think his most likely path to victory is a knockout. I’ll say he gets it done with a head kick or a knee as Stosic shoots in for a takedown.
This is one of my favorite GPP fights on the card. FDGTD is -240 and I think we do see a knockout here. I am not confident who will get the KO, so I will just be playing both sides and trying to get over 30% of both in GPPs. This is another GPP only fight though because we can’t trust either guy and they both have very low floors. We could see a 1st round finish from either guy here though and at their prices I think that puts them on that $30k lineup. I am picking the dog here, so he is my preferred play, but not by much.
Winner – Kennedy Nzechukwu via 1st round (T)KO
Scott Holtzman $9,300 vs Dong Yung Ma $6,900
Scott Holtzman
Age: 35
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: 52
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -440
Last time out, Scott Holtzman had his 3 fight UFC win streak snapped by veteran Nik Lentz. It was a close decision, but Lentz deserved the win. He needs to come back strong & make a statement here. At 35 years old he has to be putting fighters like Ma away to get chances at top 15 opponents. Holtzman is a fairly athletic fighter & will have speed advantage in this fight. Holtzman walks opponents down & has solid in & out movement. He will throw nice inside leg kicks & has a good straight-left hand. He will throw left hooks also. He will throw a straight-left hand, overhand right or straight-right combination. He does a good job of throwing counter check left hooks or counter straight-right hands. In the past, he could stay in the pocket too long, throwing lazy, touching shots & get countered with a power punch. He does have nice uppercuts in close range, and when he backs opponents towards the cage he will swarm with hook, uppercut combinations. He has good front kicks to the body & head. He will also throw nice round kicks to the head. He does a good job of feinting kicks to set up his punches. He likes to close the distance when fighters are against the cage with flying knees & flying jump kicks. He has a strong chin & can recover quickly. He has solid power with 4 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished.
Scott Holtzman is very physical for the division & a strong grappler. He has great double leg takedowns. He has good timing on them and has a strong drive. He can pick fighters up & slam them. He will grab a single leg & drive opponents to the cage then turn it to a double leg. He has good body lock takedowns also & is strong in the clinch. On top, he has good ground & pound elbows & solid top control. He dropped Alan Patrick, took the mount & finished him with nasty ground & pound. He has very good takedown defense and is hard to hold down. When fighters take him down, he does a great job of popping back up. He can be taken down against the cage with double legs. He was controlled in the clinch & taken down with some body locks against the fence vs Nik Lentz. He lost the fight largely because he couldn’t get off the cage, but Lentz is an excellent grinder. He isn’t much of a submission threat with only 2 in his career. He did show great cardio in that match, being the fresher fighter late & almost finishing the fight. Holtzman is going to get the type of fight he likes to be in here. Ma is someone who will meet in the middle & throw down. Holtzman should try to stay technical, be in & out, use his speed and take Ma out on the feet. I think he is more durable as well & if he wants to make the fight a war & trade he probably will win that. I doubt he will have to worry about many takedown attempts in this matchup & think he’s the better wrestler.
Dong Hyun Ma
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Busan Team MAD
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 187
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +350
Dong Hyun Ma had a rough night last time out. He was knocked out in the first round by Devonte Smith. Ma has had limited success in the UFC. He is 3-3 overall & all three of his wins have come against fighters no longer in the UFC. He has won 3 of his last 4 fights, but I’m not impressed with his resume. Ma likes to work behind his jab, left hook & leg kicks on the feet. He is very active with his right leg. He will throw round kicks to the body & head from orthodox and likes to switch stances & throw kicks with the front leg. He will attack with the round kicks to the body, head, and has decent front kicks. Ma is very flat footed & stands right in front of opponents. He doesn’t move his head & when he gets tagged, he will plant his feet & brawl instead of moving. He has taken a lot of damage in his UFC career. He was finished in a war against Marco Polo Reyes & then quickly knocked out by Devonte Smith in his last match. He isn’t very dangerous on the feet & fighters can stay in the pocket with him without fear of getting knocked out if they’re durable. Ma has 6 KO/TKO’s, but most of those are on the ground. He has been finished 3 times by KO/TKO, and those came in his last 3 losses.
Ma is a judo black belt and has solid body lock takedowns. He has good judo throws & strong clinch control against the cage. He will throw knees to the body & try to bank control time. On top, he likes to take the back & he has good top pressure. He seems to not have great top control when he tries to get damage off or go for submissions himself. He isn’t a very active seeker of the takedown. In 6 UFC fights he only has 6 takedowns, and 4 came in one fight. He has not gotten a takedown in his last 3 fights. Even with the judo black belt, he can still get controlled against the cage & taken down. He has a good get-up game and is hard to control on the mat. He does have 6 submissions, but all pre-UFC. He has been submitted twice in his career. Ma won’t play it safe & has gone out on his shield in all his UFC losses. He is going to come to win & fighters have to take him out to stop him from coming. He isn’t super aggressive or anything, but definitely is a survivor. This is a tough matchup for Ma & a struggle to find a path to victory for him. Lentz had some success with head kicks vs Holtzman & maybe that’s something Ma can try & replicate. He could try to work the clinch with his judo black belt, but that’s not his usual game. I don’t think his brawling style will fare well for him here though, and he has to switch it up.
The only edge I can really give Ma here is size. He should be the slightly bigger guy and maybe he can use that to get a knockout here, or land takedowns and try to get a submission or decision from his top control. I don’t see that happening though and I give Holtzman the edge on the feet and the ground. I think Holtzman has the wrestling to control where this fight takes place and I think if there are takedowns in this match that Holtzman is the one getting most of them. I like him on the feet as well and I think he has the better shot of winning by KO or a decision through striking. I think he will win this fight from TKO or a decision, but I will lean with this being a clear 30-27 call from the judges.
On DraftKings, Holtzman is my preferred play. I like him in all formats and I think this is a good matchup for him to score highly in. He has been putting up over 100 DK points in his recent wins and Ma will bring the fight and probably up the pace that we are used to seeing from Holtzman. I think he can land multiple takedowns here or get a knockout, and he is a guy I am looking to put in a lot of lineups. Him and Claudio Silva are my top plays on the board, but they are the top priced guys, so I will probably have one or the other in most of my lineups. Ma is in play because if he wins he will be on the optimal most likely, but I don’t know if he will make my player pool or not. I may use him as a hedge play if I do end up with more Holtzman than I plan on, but he is a fine fade if you are making 5 or less lineups.
Winner – Scott Holtzman via Unanimous Decision
Trevin Giles $8,500 vs Gerald Meerschaert $7,700
Trevin Giles
Age: 26
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Elite MMA Houston
From: Texas
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 110
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -165
Trevin Giles is making a quick turn around after a disappointing return to the octagon against Zak Cummings. He took a year and a half off and had a lot of things going on in his life such as becoming a police officer & having a kid. The fight with Zak Cummings was going well, but he got caught, dropped & submitted late in the fight. He is coming back less than 3 months after & trying to get it right back. Giles is very athletic. He has a long stance, and good movement. He is good at staying at his range & keeping opponents just at the end of his jab. He will constantly feint level changes & keep opponents off balance. He has a very fast, snappy jab, that he will double & triple up on. He will throw a one-two or a jab, right hook combination. He likes to follow the one-two or the jab, right hook with a left hook, right hook combination or a left hook to the body. He will attack the body with one-twos as well. He has a nice rear uppercut. He is very fast & closes the distance super quickly. He has very fast hand speed & stays technical. He really works behind his jab & doesn’t open himself up to be hit much. He does slide away at times with his hands a bit low & Zak Cummings exploited that. Cummings did say he’s very hard to hit & overall Giles is very evasive. He will throw occasional leg & body kicks. When he is loose & comfortable he likes to end combinations with kicks. He is going to have a big speed advantage in this fight. Giles has big power & 5 KO/TKO’s. He is coming off his first career finish loss.
Trevin Giles is a solid grappler. He is usually looking for the opportunity to close the distance & get a takedown especially if fighters are near the cage. It will be interesting to see if he tries to grapple, or just keep it on the feet against a black belt in Gerald Meerschaert. In his last match against Antonio Braga Neto, another black belt, he kept it on the feet. He has solid double legs & thudding ground and pound. He will throw big shots from inside his opponent’s guard & can finish fights with hammerfists. He likes to move to side control & the crucifix position. He will force opponents to give their backs & then unload brutal shots from the wrestling ride position. He knocked James Bochnovic out extremely bad with G&P. He has solid top control & is good at being faster in scrambles. He will take the back in scrambles & lock in rear naked chokes. He has two rear naked chokes. He also has an arm triangle, armbar, and inverted triangle. He can keep a very high pace & really put a beating on opponents. He is excellent in top position. He can enter the clinch a bit sloppy sometimes & doesn’t shoot takedowns from range. His takedown defense is questionable & he can be controlled on the mat. He will try to give his back to stand up, and Ryan Spann was able to stay on his back for a majority of round one of their fight. When he’s taken down, he stays calm & is hard to submit, but he can do too much waiting. It seems as he just tries to wait until the perfect moment to use his athleticism to explode into a sweep or stand up. He doesn’t use a lot of technique to stand up off his back or attack with submissions. He was caught in a very tight guillotine against Ryan Spann also, but was able to get out. He was taken down a couple times by Antonio Braga Neto, and was briefly mounted in round one. He was submitted in his last fight, but more because he got dropped. Giles has great cardio & once he was able to get back to his feet after being taken down in round 3 vs Neto he turned it on & knocked him out. Giles has 5 submissions and has finished 10 of his 11 wins.
Gerald Meerschaert
Age: 31
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 47
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +145
Gerald Meerschaert is coming off a loss to Kevin Holland in a very odd fight. He was able to get takedowns, dominant positions, but got reversed & threatened himself. Overall it was a very odd fight. This is the last fight on Meerschaert’s contract, and he needs to perform here. Meerschaert is a massive 185 lber. He is an action fighter & usually the fighter moving forward. He has a decent jab, and straight-right hand. He will counter with right hooks. He likes to get fighter’s backs against the cage, where he will unload with long punching combinations to the body and head, and short elbows. He has nasty kicks. He throws nice low leg kicks, and powerful body kicks. He will go up top with head kicks as well. Overall, his striking to me is not great. He leaves his head on the center line and can be hit clean with big counters. He is heavy on his lead leg and can get it chopped down. He is very tough, and his ability to take a shot is key to his victories. To me his durability is fading a little bit though. He has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career, but overall, he isn’t a big knockout threat on the feet. He has only been finished by strikes one time in his career.
Meerschaert is a good grappler, and has a lot of submissions in his career, he is susceptible to being taken down, and submitted himself. He has good single leg takedowns, he does a good job of timing singles when opponents throw kicks. He has nice body lock entries, and he is very physically strong in the clinch. He has good control, nice short knees and elbows. He will grind in the clinch, and then eventually drop down for a double or single. He has good chain wrestling and can transition from body locks to doubles to singles very fluidly. On top, he has strong ground & pound, and he will rain down straight punches and elbows. He has good guard passing and is very heavy on top. He is very opportunistic with chokes and has a lot of different chokes he can pull off. He has gotten a guillotine, arm triangle, anaconda, and rear naked choke. He can be taken down pretty easily with body locks and double legs. He allows fighters to move quickly to dominant positions, and he stays calm but can lose rounds through being controlled. He has 20 submissions in his career, but has been submitted 8 times himself.
I don’t see this fight going to a decision. If this fight stays standing, I think Giles will get a knockout. He is the better striker and he has more power as well. He is going to be looking to stuff takedowns and keep this fight standing. If he can do that, he should win. Meerschaert is going to be looking to get this fight to the ground from the opening bell though. He shoots for over 8 takedowns per 15-minutes and he lands them at a 44% rate. He is very active on the ground though and if he can get it there I think he could pull off a submission upset. I do think he does get the fight to the mat as well. Giles could survive and get back to the feet, but I don’t see Meerschaert slowing down with the takedowns and he will be hunting for submissions. I am going to lean with the underdog in this spot but if he can’t get takedowns he will be in trouble.
This is the 2nd to last fight of the 4 I will be targeting heavily this week. I think we see a finish in this fight and at their price tags that could put either on the winning lineup. I think it is another GPP only fight like the other two I mentioned, but it is one that I want in more than half of my lineups and ideally overweight on both guys. My preferred play is Meerschaert because I think if he wins he has 100+ point upside as an underdog. Giles is going to be the better and more powerful striker though and he has 100% takedown defense so far, and if he can stuff takedowns he can get a KO in any round. Either way, I don’t see this going all 3 rounds and I want the winner in a lot of lineups. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably go 4-5 Meerschaert and 3 Giles.
Winner – Gerald Meerschaert via 1st round Submission
Nasrat Haqparast $9,100 vs Joaquim Silva $7,100
Nasrat Haqparast
Age: 23
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Germany
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 98
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -255
Nasrat Haqparast is a young fighter who looks to be hitting a stride. He has won back to back UFC fights, & was very dominant. He is 23 years old, training at Tristar Gym and improving rapidly. Nasrat Haqparast he is going to be much faster with better footwork. He definitely has better boxing & more variety in his hands. He will feint much more & uses jabs to set up combinations. Haqparast is a southpaw with excellent forward pressure. The volume that Haqparast will throw will be much more than Silva’s’. He has really good jabs, and a nasty straight-left hand. His right hook is nasty also. He cuts the cage off very well & when he can back an opponent up, he will close the distance with hard combinations. His combinations off his straight-left hand are nasty & he’s extremely fast. He has very nice low kicks & front kicks to the body. The main issue right now with Haqparast is pacing. He will go out in round one, go hard for the finish & gets a bit tired. Even in his last match though against Thibault Gouti, he showed a good ability to strike moving backwards as well. I don’t expect either fighter to bring it to the mat & this is going to be a standup fight. Haqparast definitely has killer instinct & when he hurts an opponent he will go for the kill. He has 8 KO/TKO’s but is still looking for his first in the UFC.
Haqparast is actually a good grappler. In his early fights he takes opponents down with doubles and pounded them out on the ground. He has good sprawls and can disengage and go back to striking. I don’t expect him to wrestle or have to defend takedowns in this match. His one UFC loss he was out grappled by Marcin Held, but that was a close fight. Nasrat has been submitted once in his MMA debut. He is training out of Tristar & I expect him & Firas to have a good game plan & stay to his strengths.
Joaquim Silva
Age: 30
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 69”
Gym: Evolucao Thai MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 80
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +215
Joaquim Silva is an excellent fighter. He is well-rounded with a killer instinct. He is explosive, with big power, and a nice submission game. He is coming off a nasty knockout win over Jared Gordon. Joaquim Silva has fast hand speed. He has a wide stance & likes to push opponents back while sliding in & out of range. He has a really nice straight-right hand & throws big, wide hooks. He has solid round kicks to the legs body & head. When opponents stand in front of him, or he can back them up he is dangerous. He has very fast straight punch combinations & will mix big concussive hooks & uppercuts in there. He will mix it up to the body. He loads up on almost all his shots, and needs his feet planted to be successful. When opponents can move & strike, he struggles & is low volume. He doesn’t have great defense, but a very good chin & almost lets opponents get confidence by hitting him & then boom catch them & KO them. Silva struggles with fighters who can effectively pressure him backwards & stick and move. He doesn’t have the best gas tank. He did get a nasty knockout in round 3 of his last fight & is improving with his cardio & pacing. Silva has 7 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished.
Silva isn’t a great wrestler. Due to him being flat footed at times he can be taken down fairly easily. He has a decent sprawl, but excellent get-ups. He is very hard to hold down. He has dangerous BJJ & sweeps also. He attacked in his last fight with a nasty leg lock that tore Jared Gordon’s hamstring. He doesn’t look for takedowns with just one in his career. Silva has 3 submissions. He has been submitted by Glaico Franca. He probably would have an advantage on the mat in this fight, but I don’t think he can take Nasrat down.
This is going to be a fun striking battle. Either guy could look for takedowns here, but I don’t expect it to happen unless they are hurt and trying to use grappling to recover. I see Silva being the more powerful striker and I would give him a big edge on the ground if this fight does hit the mat. I think Haqparast is the better overall striker though and I think he will have a nice speed advantage here and he will likely be the one throwing higher volume. If this is a 15-minute striking match, I think Haqparast wins. However, I can’t play him at -250 here. Silva is going to keep this fight close and he could get a knockout or a submission. If I had to bet this fight I would rather just take the dog money. But I will side with Haqparast as my pick and I think this will be one of the best fights on the card.
If I was to pick 5 fights to target heavily this week, this would be the 5th. I do like both sides of this fight, but my preferred play is Nasrat. I think he can score highly in a decision and he will probably be lower owned than these other $9k guys so he is a solid GPP pivot. He is fine in cash games as well, but I do prefer the other $9k guys there. Silva is interesting though as a cheap dog in GPPs because he could finish this fight on the feet or the ground and he has one of the higher ceilings as an underdog. I will be using both guys here, but I won’t force them into lineups like I will the other 4 fights. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably go 3 Nasrat and 2 Silva.
Winner – Nasrat Haqparast via Unanimous Decision
Jim Miller $8,900 vs Clay Guida $7,300
Jim Miller
Age: 35
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Miller Brothers MMA
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 19-11
Fight Matrix: 37
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -155
Jim Miller has been on an uptick lately. He has won 2 of his last three fights by first round rear naked choke. He is fighting another fighter from his era in Clay Guida. Miller is the better striker here. He is going to be looking to keep it on the feet, while Guida will be trying to get takedowns. Miller, for being a good black belt & submission artist, has struggled verse wrestlers over his career. Miller has lost to fighters such as Diego Sanchez, Mike Chiesa, & Pat Healy most recently. He had a split decision vs Joe Lauzon that was very questionable where he was out grappled. Miller is at his best when he can go forward. He will get his inside, outside leg kicks going. He has a nasty right hook & good straight or overhand left. Miller will explode in with straight punches to the body then go up to the head. He will use the blitz to the body attack to set up doubles later in the fight. He is very good at getting the back and has nasty rear naked chokes. Miller will throw some nice body & head kicks. He tends to get taken down a lot off his body kicks. Fighters catch them & drag him to the mat.
Miller can make mistakes when opponents pressure & end up on his back also. When he gets pushed against the cage he doesn’t have the greatest takedown defense there. He will defend takedowns with the front choke well. He has a good guillotine & will use the front choke attack to snap opponents down & circle to the back. Miller will try to create scrambles immediately when he’s taken down & take the back. When fighters can cement top position on him though, he tends to struggle especially if they can pass his guard. When he’s in the guard he will try to work the rubber guard, but it’s more about controlling posture than attacking submissions. He will just try to grab the head of his opponent & control posture. It mitigates the damage but keeps him defensive on his back. He will allow opponents to pass to mount & the back. Miller tends to slow down in fights & Guida doesn’t stop coming so the third round if it gets there it will probably be a Guida round. Miller has good double leg takedowns himself & if he can get on top, Clay will be in trouble. Miller is nasty on top & very aggressive with submissions. Guida has notoriously been bad with submission defense. Miller has 16 submissions. I think Miller is more durable than Guida at this stage of his career.
Clay Guida
Age: 37
Height: 5’7
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 15-12
Fight Matrix: 42
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +135
Clay Guida won his last match but didn’t look great. He defeated BJ Penn via decision but dropped a round to Penn in a tough fight. Guida has still won 3 of his last 4 & a win here would probably get him a top 15-25 opportunity. Guida moves much more & is going to be trying to be in & out, land some shots & then get in on the legs or push him to the fence. Guida needs to make Miller work early, get him tired, more flat footed & easy to get in on. If Guida can get takedowns I see him having top control & wearing on Miller. He was getting hit with some counter overhands against Penn & kept the fight mostly on the feet. Here I see him trying to get takedowns & grind much more. He needs to be all the way in or all the way out & just try to move, land some shots & try to get it to the mat. If this fight stays standing long I see Miller piecing Guida up.
Guida has good double leg & body lock takedowns. He is good getting opponents on the back foot, getting in on a double and getting the takedowns against the cage. He is good at circling to the back and dragging his opponent to the mat directly into side control. He will take the mount & has nice ground & pound. He doesn’t have extremely powerful ground & pound, but he throws a lot of volume, and can break opponents with his pressure & pace. He has good top control. He will look to take the back & go for rear naked chokes. He has decent arm triangles as well. He tends to leave his head inside on takedowns and gets guillotined. He will also panic wrestler when he’s hurt & that’s what lead to most of his submission losses. He has been submitted 9 times in his career. He has great cardio, he doesn’t get tired and that is one of his biggest advantages in his fights. The first round will be a danger round for Guida to me. Miller is going to come hard, look to drop & hurt Guida or get a takedown & sub early. Guida has the better cardio & if he can start to implement his game, he will start to pull away as the fight goes on. I don’t think Miller will be able to stand up consistently if he gets taken down or submit Clay off his back.
This would have been a more fun fight in 2009 but we are getting it in 2019 instead. Both guys are near the end of their careers, so the matchup does make sense. It is a close fight though and I think it should be much closer to 50/50 odds. Miller is also from New Jersey and that is where this card will take place, so maybe that is playing into the line. On the feet, this fight is close, but I think I would give the edge to Guida with his speed and movement. I don’t see either getting a knockout, so it would be a point fighting contest on the feet. Both fighters like to grapple but I would give the edge on the mat to Miller. If there is a finish in this fight I think it would likely be a submission from Miller. Aside from that, I think we are going to see a 15-minute fight here. I think Guida has the movement and the takedown defense to keep this fight standing for the most part though, so I am going to go with him as my pick. My worry is that it’s not a clear enough win to get with the crowd being on Miller’s side, but I do think the value is on Guida with these current odds.
On DraftKings, Guida is my preferred play here. I like his price a lot more than Miller’s and I think he is one of the better cash punts on the card. I think he can win this fight too and at his price a decision win could possibly be enough, but I don’t see him having a high ceiling here. I think Miller is actually the one with the high ceiling because he could get a submission and that would score well if it is early. I would rather use other favorites though personally, so he won’t make many of my lineups. Guida will make some lineups but I will be targeting dogs with higher finishing potential more. If I was making 3 or less lineups I would probably just fade this fight all together. I do think we see 3 rounds though, so I like the floor Guida provides and I think this is a solid matchup for him to pull off the upset. Even in New Jersey.
Winner – Clay Guida via Split Decision
Colby Covington $9,000 vs Robbie Lawler $7,200
Colby Covington
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Florida
UFC Record: 9-1
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -235
Colby Covington is finally set to return to action. The former interim WW champion has only fought one time in nearly two years. He won the belt vs Rafael Dos Anjos in June of 2018. Prior to that his last fight was in October of 2017. It’s been over a year since we’ve seen Covington in the octagon. He is no longer the champion & needs an impressive performance to earn another title shot. Colby Covington is a tenacious wrestler, with in my opinion, an underrated high volume striking game. He has an educated lead hand and throws some nice jabs and straights. He has a good jab, overhand left combination and has more power than people give him credit for with his overhand left. He dropped Dong Hyun Kim with his overhand left. When he gets in range he will throw long hook combinations. He has nice leg kicks inside and outside. He sometimes cannot be incredibly fluid with his kicks. Covington throws a lot of shots and keeps a very high pace to try to wear his opponents out. He does have some defensive problems on the feet. He can keep his lead hand low and get clipped with straight punches. He also can lunge forward at times and get off balance. He can duck his head down at times as well. His chin is very good though so far in his career. Covington has never been finished by strikes. He doesn’t hit very hard himself.
Covington is a former college wrestler & brings those skills to the octagon. He has great entries into his double legs. He does an awesome job of using punches to create entries for the level change and has a strong double leg. He does a great job of staying connected and hanging on opponents. He loves to get the body lock and try to work for the back on the feet whiling hanging on fighters and making them work. He’s very strong in the clinch positions. He isn’t overwhelming with his ground and pound but does enough and can wrestle all day. He has a RNC, but really gets his finish after he breaks his opponents. He got a bit tired vs Maia but kept a sick pace and dominated him. He got tired in my opinion because it was so striking heavy and he is a wrestler. He usually gets right in on the legs in 20-30 seconds against guys not named Demian Maia. He has amazing cardio when he is wrestling and can go all day long. He is going to want to in on Robbie’s legs or on top of him at all times in this fight, make him work & gas him out. Covington has won 6 consecutive fights. He is confident & the fighter in his prime here.
Robbie Lawler
Age: 37
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Combat Club
From: Iowa
UFC Record: 13-7
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +195
Robbie Lawler is a ruthless knockout artist with huge power. He has fought the best of the best for years and won’t be intimidated by Covington’s wrestling. Lawler has historically been extremely hard to takedown. Lawler is a southpaw striker with very good movement. He will constantly be moving his body, feinting and slipping to get inside & box. He is very good once he gets inside at slipping and rolling with shots and returning with counters. He has a nice jab & will throw hard one-twos. He will throw nasty right hook, straight-left hand combinations. He will throw an overhand left less often & is good at slipping a shot and returning with a short-left hook. He has a very strong jab, right hook combination & lead right hook in general. He will throw a nice, right uppercut, straight-left combination. He loves to get inside hand fights, stand right in front of opponents and just go toe to toe. He will not back off when opponents throw back hard shots like most fighters & will force opponents to trade. He will attack the body with jabs & hooks occasionally. His straight-left hand is superb, and he really busts the faces of opponents up with it. Lawler isn’t a super active kicker, but he has very hard leg & body kicks. Lawler obviously gets hit because of his come forward style, and he struggles with good kickers. He can get hit with hard leg & body kicks as he slips with his feet planted, so he eats the full brunt of it. Lawler’s chin is excellent, and when that goes I feel he will be much less effective. He has only been finished by Nick Diaz & Tyron Woodley by KO/TKO in his 41 fight career. There is no secret what Lawler wants to do here, and that’s knock him out. He has 20 career knockouts in 28 wins.
Lawler has notoriously been a very hard fighter to takedown. He isn’t worried whatsoever about taking the fight to the ground himself. Even when he gets hurt, he prefers to stand & trade until one man drops. He did get a slam takedown in his last match & almost took out Askren with ground & pound. He looked super explosive & the best he had in years physically. Lawler is very good in the clinch. He gets good head positioning & will throw hard uppercuts & hooks. Lawler is incredibly explosive & still going to be a much superior athlete to Covington. He has a dynamic sprawl, and great overall takedown defense. He is great at getting his hips away & snapping opponents down to the mat. He has heavy hips & a strong base making it very hard to take him down with doubles. Lawler makes opponents pay for takedown attempts with good timed uppercuts, hard knees and big shots to the head. He will swarm opponents after they are unsuccessful on a takedown attempt and doesn’t let them rest. Hendricks was able to take him down a couple times against the fence, but Lawler did good damage from those positions also. He will throw nice uppercuts & punches from that position. He has a good butterfly hook and decent get-ups. I don’t think he will be able to get-up consistently or at all possibly if taken down by Covington. Lawler will take time off & gives opponents chances to win rounds by resting. He is a fighter who blitzes for the finish & then needs to recover. He has to be ready to deal with the pace of a fighter like Covington. Lawler has been submitted 5 times in his career, but his submission defense is not bad. Lawler has never attempted a submission in his entire UFC/Strikeforce 31 fight career. He does have one career submission all the way back in 2005.
I am looking forward to this fight. Colby has the wrestling to be able to beat anybody in the division and his hands have been looking decent as well. He hasn’t fought in over a year though and now he is facing a guy who has the better and much more dangerous striking as well. Lawler is a former UFC champ and he has 20 knockouts on his record. He has faced some of the top guys in the world and he has done pretty well against wrestlers in the past. He is 37 years old now though, so I am interested to see how he deals with a dominant wrestler like Colby here. His game plan is going to be to keep this fight standing and try to knock Colby out. If he keeps the fight standing, he should win a decision if he doesn’t get the knockout, but he has to keep this fight on the feet. Colby is going to be looking for takedowns early and often. He averages more than 5.6 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 51% accuracy, so when he shoots, he will chain wrestle until he can get the takedown. I do think if Colby wins that it is likely a decision win, so he is going to need to win at least 3 rounds with his wrestling. He does have the pace to keep this fight close on the feet, but Lawler is dangerous, so I don’t see him looking to win rounds on the feet. I do think Colby gets the win here by winning at least 3 rounds, but the line is too wide for me on Colby. I think the value is on Lawler here at +185. I could even see me changing my pick later in the week to Lawler here. For now, I will say the pick is Colby, but I will not be betting him at anything over 2/1 odds.
On DraftKings, this is an all-in fight for me. I don’t see the winner not being on the optimal lineup and they both have 100+ point potential. If Lawler wins, it is most likely by a knockout. If Colby wins, there will probably be close to 10 or even more takedowns here. Either of those outcomes will score highly and I will probably have this fight in every single lineup up mine. I also think it is a solid stack in cash fight. Just lock in the win and the 100+ points and let others make the mistakes. I might be close to 50/50 on this fight but I will say my preferred play is Colby because he probably has the highest ceiling on the entire card.
Winner – Colby Covington via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
- Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100.
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