BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 241 Location – Anaheim, California
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in California. DraftKings has some awesome contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in and $100k goes to 1st place with a total of $300k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $100k prize. I also have 1 seat into the final round of the Knockout King Qualifier tournament, so I will be hoping to hit $50k in that this week. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Shana Dobson $8,200 vs Sabina Mazo $8,000
Shana Dobson
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: Team Lloyd Irving
From: Texas
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -110
Shana Dobson is making her return after a little bit under a year & a half long layoff. She dropped a decision to Lauren Mueller in her last fight. She is 1-1 in the UFC & did have a knockout win in round 2. Dobson is a striker & a pretty good athlete. Her hands are only ok to me. She comes up short a lot with her punches. She tries to throw the jab out there, and always starts combos with jabs. She likes to throw jab, overhand rights or jab, right hooks. She will throw right hooks & overhand rights as leads also. She will explode in with nice punching combinations & if she lands, she has power. Dobson will attack the body with hooks at times. Her kicks are the best part of her game. She has very heavy inside leg kicks and is fluid throwing kicks with both legs. She has nice round kicks to the body & head, especially with her lead leg. She will throw front leg sidekicks with her lead leg occasionally. She will flick the kick up there & it’s hard to see coming at times. She will throw spinning kicks to the body as well. In her one UFC win she landed a nice overhand right to right hook combination that dropped her opponent. Ariel Beck is very low level & that was her only UFC fight. Dobson tends to allow opponents to control the center of the cage & push her backwards. When she moves backwards defensively, she has a bad tendency to extend her lead hand to try to create distance, but it leads to her getting hit with punches. She doesn’t like being hit & when fighters aggressively forward pressure her she looks very uncomfortable. She will panic wrestle in those situations. When her nose started bleeding in her last fight it looked to break Dobson mentally. Dobson has shown power in my opinion in her fights, but just has one KO/TKO. She was finished by TKO on the mat one time.
Dobson is not a grappler & her grappling defense is not very good. She gives up double underhooks very easily & can be controlled against the cage. When she fought Roxanne Modafferi, the first time Roxanne got a hold of her against the cage, she took her down with a body lock. Dobson showed nothing off her back, was mounted & finished with elbows. She tried to explode out of mount a couple times but had no real technique on bottom. She is strong & was able to disengage from the clinch vs Mueller a few times. She did get a takedown out of necessity in round 3 when she was getting tagged up but couldn’t control position. Mueller was also able to get a third-round takedown, but Dobson worked back to her feet. Dobson isn’t a submission threat with zero in her career. She has never been submitted. Dobson looks to have some good, raw ability for the division. She is pretty fast, explosive & hits hard. When she has an opponent hurt she will go for the kill. She was almost able to get Lauren Mueller out of there in the last 30 seconds of their fight with body shots. She looks strong as well & like she could potentially become a good offensive wrestler. Her cardio isn’t great & she does get tired in fights. In my opinion her mental toughness is in question. It’s hard to trust a fighter like that. She probably will get the standup fight she wants in this matchup & won’t have to worry about much grappling. Dodson has to chop the legs down of Mazo. Mazo is very heavy on her lead leg & if she attacks that leg early & often, I see her hurting it. Dobson is going to be the more explosive & faster fighter foot speed wise. She needs to use her leg kicks early to set up her blitz combinations. Get in, get out without getting hit & repeat.
Sabina Mazo
Age: 22
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 70”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Colombia
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 55
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -110
Sabina Mazo is still very young at 22 years old. She lost her UFC debut to Maryna Moroz by decision. Mazo is a striker with a very dangerous head kick. Her multiple head kick knockouts are what got her this UFC opportunity so early in her career. Mazo is a tall, lanky fighter who likes to use her reach. She tends to start a lot of fights slow and open up later on. She has a good jab & very nice straight-right hand. She will throw the one-two out there & has good hand speed. She likes to walk opponents down & then walk them into her straight punches. She keeps good forward pressure, cuts the cage off & then uses her head kick to catch opponents circling away. If fighters circle away from her rear leg though, it takes away the head kick. Her head kick is nasty though & if it lands she flatlines opponents. She will mix in round kicks & front knees to the body. Mazo is very flat-footed & keeps her chin high. She can get tagged & keeps her head right on the center line. She was bloodied up by Maryna Moroz in her last fight. Mazo has better composure than Dobson. She has a good chin & is calm in the fire. She is willing to trade if opponents sit in the pocket with her. Mazo doesn’t have big power in her hands but has two head kick knockouts. She has a very good chin & doesn’t even react to big connections.
Mazo had her grappling exposed a little bit in her UFC debut. She was taken & held down by Maryna Moroz. Mazo did show a pretty good defensive guard. She was trying to trap & arm and threaten with submissions but didn’t really throw anything up. In the clinch Mazo isn’t bad. She uses her reach well to land knees & elbows. She will frame with her forearm, land a few shots & exit. I feel she will be the better fighter in the clinch in this matchup, but I don’t see much of the fight taking place there. Mazo doesn’t shoot takedowns and isn’t an offensive grappler. I would say she has the better Jiu-Jitsu if it does hit the mat. Mazo has good cardio & had her best round in round 3 vs Moroz. She is durable & has heart. Mazo needs to keep the pace high & attack the body with the round kicks & knees up the middle. She needs to make Dobson pay when she tries to get inside with straight punches. She has to pressure forward & try to make the cage small for Dobson. If she can force exchanges I think she will win those.
I expect this fight to be a 3-round striking match and I am not confident in picking either one. They both throw strikes at a decent pace but Mazo looks to be the more accurate and technical striker. Dobson looks to have more power and probably the better athlete of the two. Mazo is the younger fighter here at 22 years old so I think she will be making improvement every time we see her. Dobson is now 30 years old and I don’t see her making any massive improvements at this point. I think this is going to be a close back and forth fight and I see Mazo landing more shots but Dobson landing the harder shots. I never know how judges will score those fights, so I won’t be betting this fight personally. I am going to lean with the underdog though because I do expect her to be a bit more improved and I think she will be the better overall striker in this match. I will take her in a close split decision win that could go either way.
On DraftKings, Mazo is my preferred play here, mainly because she is cheaper. I really don’t want to invest in either of these fighters though. I do love targeting the 1st fight on the card and these fighters are the lowest level on the card and most likely to make a mistake, but I really don’t like clicking on either one even as the mid-range priced fight of the week. I may have 1 lineup with Mazo, or both, but I think this is an easy fight to fade if you are making 5 or less lineup. Unless you have a better read than I do, I would just avoid this fight and hope it is close and the winner doesn’t score highly. I don’t see either fighter being highly owned at all so if you have a strong feeling on either one then maybe get some leverage in GPPs, but I will be avoiding this fight in most/all of my lineups.
Winner – Sabina Mazo via Split Decision
Kyung Ho Kang $8,900 vs Brandon Davis $7,300
Kyung Ho Kang
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Busan Team MAD
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 66
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -190
Kyung Ho Kang is coming off a very exciting win over Teruto Ishihara. He was dropped early but rallied to get the rear naked choke victory. Kang has won 4 of his last 5 fights & with a win here, he will probably get a top 15 opponent. Kyung Ho Kang is a big, strong BW with well-rounded skills. He likes to stalk opponents & keep heavy pressure. He will keep his hands low, and tries to stay loose as he pressures, but he does get his guard up when he gets into range. He needs to be weary of that early, because Davis hits hard. He has nice round kicks to the body, and hard hooks. He has very smooth striking, he throws nice front kicks to the body and straight punches. He will throw spinning heel kicks and fight ending techniques. He is fast and keeps opponents at the end of his combinations. He can also move & counter, throwing nice counter right hooks, and hard leg kicks. He did a much better job with his defense vs Ramos as well. He can get backed to the cage and shell up instead of moving. He has been dropped quite a few times in the UFC, but only KO’d once. He has good recoverability and the ability to push through bad situations and come out on top. He only has two TKO’s and isn’t much of a standing knockout threat.
Kang is primarily a grappler and has tremendous timing on his shots and strength on his body locks. He will also circle to the back and get standing rear naked choke positions. He will also dive on guillotines. He has good double leg entries, and a great wrestler overall. He is good at controlling top position and landing ground and pound. He will achieve dominant positions on the ground, like mount, and throw hard elbows. He attacks with submissions like armbars and triangles. He is big and strong for the division with good cardio and is relentless with pressure. He has good scrambling ability, as well as great accuracy with his ground and pound standing in opponent’s guard. He is active & he will do enough to not get stood up. He was able to control Ricardo Ramos on the ground who is high level and avoided the submission attempts pretty easily. He is very calm in bad positions and hard to submit. He has good takedown defense, and if fighters do get him down, he has a great guard and good get-up game. He is going to have a major grappling advantage if it hits the mat. In this fight he is going to want to establish the grappling quickly, make Davis worry about his wrestling from the get go. If he can get takedowns, and establish position, he should have an advantage on the mat and could find the submission.
Brandon Davis
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Alan Belcher MMA Club
From: Mississippi
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 189
Last Fought: 2-3
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +165
Brandon Davis had a successful bantamweight debut in his last fight. He defeated Randy Costa in a fun, back & forth fight. He was hurt, but eventually hurt & finished Costa with a rear naked choke. Davis is huge for 135 lbs, maybe even the biggest fighter in the division. He was 160 lbs in the cage on fight night. Davis is a pressure fighter & a come forward striker. He has fast, straight punches and uses solid footwork and head movement to land and angle off. He has a nice, front snap kick to the body and throws very nice leg kicks early and often. He should really look to throw heavy leg kicks early and often against Kang. He has a nice straight-right hand he can land and angle off. He has a nice lead hook and will use it to set up his leg kicks. His jab is fast and straight. His hands are fast, and he can land long range, straight punching combinations with both hands. He is good at controlling the range, just sliding out of the way of his opponent’s shots or catching them on the gloves and shoulder. He has a nice step-in knee. He can keep his hands low in the pocket after throwing sometimes & get clipped. He has the ability to get hurt & then come back hard. He enjoys a war. He looks like he has big power at 135. He has 3 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Davis isn’t a great grappler. He stands tall and the double leg is there to get. He does have heavy hips and does a decent job of getting double underhooks and disengaging. Against the cage, he isn’t nearly as good with his takedown defense. He will not fight hands well and lets fighters get their hands connected on the legs and they are able to take the back against him. In his last fight though, he was doing much better in the clinch. He was able to get his back off the cage quickly with kimuras & physicality. He was able to control Costa against the cage also & work with short shots. Davis does have good get-ups & is hard to hold down. Even at 145 lbs against great grapplers he was able to stand up from under them multiple times. He is difficult to submit & not going to tap quickly. He has been submitted in the UFC, but it was by a banana split against Zabit, which not many guys will be able to pull off. Davis was able to hurt his last opponent & finish him with a rear naked choke. Davis has 3 submissions & has been submitted twice. Davis has great cardio & doesn’t get tired. He is going to have to deny the takedowns here. He has to win scrambles, get back to his feet if taken down & make Kang fight moving backwards. If he can start to put combinations on Kang I feel his power at 135 lbs is real.
I think this is a close fight. Both guys like to brawl and that could lead into Davis’ favor here. I do think he is the better overall striker and he should be landing at a much higher rate while this fight is standing. Kang tends to strike more than he should, and I would assume he looks to strike a good bit in this fight. Davis isn’t really a power puncher, but he is a volume striker and I think he might be the more technical striker as well. He can hold his own on the mat as well but that is where Kang has the advantage here. If Kang looks for takedowns, then I think he can win rounds that way or even lock up a submission. I just don’t trust him to look for the takedowns as often as he should, and I think that makes Davis a live dog here. I do think Davis will need to keep this fight standing for the majority of this fight but if he does that I think he pulls off the upset with his volume. I think Kang is more likely to get a finish in this fight, but I will take Davis by a close decision just because I don’t trust Kang to look for takedowns as often as he should.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is going to be Davis because he is cheap, and I think he can win. I don’t see him scoring highly though and Kang has the much higher ceiling in this matchup, so I like him as well. I think Davis probably only scores 10x in a win here and I am not sure that will put him on the optimal lineup. We would need basically all other dogs to lose for it to happen, but I like that he has a solid shot if he can keep this standing. I will have some Kang in GPPs too because he has a real shot at 100+ points. I would guess this fight makes 35% or so of my lineups and maybe that is 20% Davis and 15% Kang. I would rather use Davis in cash, but he does have a very low floor, so it is risky. I think Kang has a solid floor though and he could score 40-points in a decision loss. If you like Kang to get the finish here, then I think you should be doubling my ownership on him because he probably does score well in a win. This fight probably takes place at a high pace and he has a real edge on the ground. I wouldn’t load up too heavily on this fight overall, but I do think it is one we should be targeting both sides of.
Winner – Brandon Davis via Split Decision
Hannah Cifers $9,300 vs Jodie Esquibel $7,000
Hannah Cifers
Age: 27
Height: 5’2
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Embrace Martial Arts
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 45
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -265
Hannah Cifers will be looking to build off her first UFC win. She took a decision over Polyana Viana in a fun fight. This will be the first time in 9 fights Cifers will have a height advantage over her opponent. She is used to being much shorter than her opponents, especially in her first two UFC fights, so she was probably happy to get this matchup. Hannah Cifers is going to try to walk down Esquibel & attack with her overhand rights. I think she will try to catch Esquibel as she blitzes in with it. I also feel in this fight, where she is the taller opponent, she will be able to close the distance with more hand combos. I think she definitely packs more power & will land heavier shots in exchanges. I think that Cifers should look to cut the cage off, make Esquibel strike with her back near the cage. She should try to force exchanges where she will have the superior power. I see her being able to take the power Esquibel throws without much issue. Cifers has 5 KO/TKO’s and has been finished on the ground once by TKO.
Cifers is very physically strong for the division. She should try to clinch up with her as well & try to attack with knees, elbows & short punches. I feel she will have a big strength advantage. If she gets on top, I think she can land some good ground & pound also. Cifers in her last match was able to win the grappling vs Viana. She was able to defend the takedowns, do more damage in the clinch, & control in top position. She didn’t show much of anything on top & was just laying & praying. I just feel like Cifers is going to be more powerful, durable fighter that is dealing out more damage. I don’t see Jodie being able to hit & run against Cifers here at all. I feel Cifers is getting more comfortable in the UFC and will start to do a bit better. Cifers has no quit & is very tough. If this fight is a brawl she will be the winner in that kind of match. Cifers has no submissions & was submitted one time in his career.
Jodie Esquibel
Age: 33
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 64”
Gym: Jackson Wink MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 0-3
Fight Matrix: 46
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +225
Jodie Esquibel is getting one final chance to get it done. She has been very unimpressive in her first three UFC fights. She is 0-3, losing three unanimous decisions. She has fought some decent competition in Karolina Kowalkiewicz, & Angela Hill, but also has a bad loss to Jessica Aguilar. Esquibel has lost 5 of her last 6 fights overall. Esquibel is a striker who likes to use lateral movement & blitz in with combinations. Esquibel doesn’t commit in fights & really struggles to find her range. She does a lot of air punching. I see this fight playing out on the feet. I think that Esquibel is going to be trying to move & dart in with straight-rights & left hooks. I see her trying to use her straight-right to the body to a left straight or left hook combination. I think she will use her front kicks to try to keep the distance & keep Cifers off her. Her left hook is nice & probably her best counter strike. Esquibel tends to duck her head a lot when she comes forward. She leaves herself readily available to uppercuts & knees. Esquibel doesn’t have power & I don’t think she’s going to keep Cifers off with punching power. She has to do it with foot speed & shot selection. Esquibel has only one TKO in her first pro fight. She has never been finished by strikes.
Esquibel is an ok grappler but doesn’t wrestle much. She will try to control in the clinch, but in this fight, I think Cifers will be much stronger & may be able to hurt Esquibel in the clinch. She can be taken down herself & throws unset up kicks a lot that fighters catch. Karolina was able to use forward pressure to brutalize her. In this fight I think she will potentially try to get late round takedowns to steal the rounds. Esquibel isn’t great on top, she doesn’t have good ground & pound or Jiu-Jitsu. She has no submissions & was submitted one time. Esquibel has decent cardio & is a survivor who’s hard to finish.
This is likely going to be a 15-minute striking match. Neither fighter has landed a takedown in the UFC and I don’t see it being in the game plan for either here unless they are losing and wanting to try to change things up. Both fighters land over 4.5 significant strikes per minute but Cifers is the faster and stronger fighter and she lands at a higher accuracy on average. Both fighters have absorbed more significant strikes than they have handed out, but Esquibel has absorbed 8.27 significant strikes per minute and that is a problem. She will land her fair of shots in this fight as well, but I think she gets out struck and I think Cifers’ punches are going to be doing more damage and I see her being the fighter pushing forward. I think this has unanimous decision for Cifers written all over it and that is what I am going with as my pick. I think she will clearly win all 3 rounds and get a 30-27 across the board from the judges.
This is a fight that should go all 3 rounds and I think both fighters have a solid floor. I think Jodie is in play as a cash game punt but that is really it with her. I don’t see her getting the win and I think Cifers has a ~70-point floor here in a win. I do think this will be a fairly high paced striking match and I see Cifers getting closer to the 80-90-point range with a win in this spot. I think she is a better cash game play than a GPP play but I will take some GPP shots on her as well. I don’t think we see takedowns or a finish here, so we will be purely relying on significant strikes. But, this is her easiest matchup yet and I think she lands at a decent rate in this fight, and if other $9k fighters end up losing then she is even live for that $100k with a ~90-point decision win. Her price tag is going to price her out of the majority of my GPP lineups though and I think Yusuff and Smith have much higher ceilings in their matchups.
Winner – Hannah Cifers via Unanimous Decision
Manny Bermudez $8,400 vs Casey Kenney $7,800
Manny Bermudez
Age: 25
Height: 5’10
Weight: 135
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: South Shore SportFighting
From: Massachussetts
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 49
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W14
Betting Odds: -130
Manny Bermudez is 14-0 & 3-0 in the UFC. He is one of the biggest BWs in the UFC and missed weight for his last fight. He is coming off a quick submission win in his last fight. Bermudez is raw on the feet, but he has a good jab and decent head movement. He will throw one-twos down the pipe. He will throw left hooks. He looks uncomfortable at times on the feet and can shoot from too far out or flop to his back. He has his lead hand very low and can be open with his striking due to that. He is obviously improving in his striking & has to have gotten confidence from his last fight. He dropped Davey Grant with a hard-right hand & transitioned right into a mounted triangle to submit him. Bermudez just has 1 TKO in his career & hasn’t been finished with strikes yet.
Manny Bermudez is going to be a legit contender in the future in my opinion. He has incredible Jiu-Jitsu. His legs are extremely fast with triangles and armbars on bottom and he will attack with omaplatas and does a great job of always attacking off his back. He has a nasty top game and transitions with ease to the mount. He does a great job of turking the legs & moving to mount. He will take the back & has a good rear naked choke. He got a guillotine from the standing clinch position very similar to cub Swanson vs Brian Ortega and he has very similar Jiu-Jitsu. He will attack with flying triangles & jump on guillotines as well. He put Davey Grant to sleep with a nasty triangle. He submitted Benito Lopez with a nasty guillotine in a scramble. He has 11 submission wins. He has finished his last 5 fights via submission.
Casey Kenney
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Rise Combat Sports
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 42
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +110
Casey Kenney had a good win in his UFC debut. He defeated Ray Borg in a back & forth fight. Casey Kenney is a strong, submission grappler. His striking isn’t great, but not bad. He is a southpaw. Casey Kenney has a good jab, a nice one-two & decent hand speed. When he backs opponents to the cage he likes to use right hook, left hook combinations. He will finish combos with nice head kicks. Kenney has nice round kicks to the body & head. Kenney will also attack the body with punches, and he has a good counter left hook. He will look to grab the Muay Thai plum & throw knees up the middle. He has a recent knee knockout that way. I would say he is the more fluid striker in this matchup, but both guys are predominately grapplers. Kenney is heavy on his lead leg & doesn’t move his head in exchanges. He is hittable and doesn’t have great defense. Kenney isn’t a big knockout threat with just two in his career. He has never been finished.
Casey Kenney showed once again that he is a very strong grappler vs Ray Borg. Kenney was able to take Borg down multiple times & scramble with him. Kenney is very strong in the clinch with judo throws & trips. He is good at opening up the takedown threat with elbows & knees in the clinch. He also can get big, explosive slam takedowns with singles & doubles. One of his knockouts was a slam knockout. Kenney has nice ground & pound and has good power. He likes to take the back & was able to get the back of Ray Borg multiple times. Borg was able to scramble out of those positions time & time again, but Borg is one of the best scramblers in the sport. Kenney has good takedown defense & will attack with hard elbows to defend them. He hits nice switches & overall is just a very good wrestler. He can be taken down and was slammed multiple times against Borg with doubles. He also had his back taken but is very good at shaking opponents off. Kenney is never static when taken down, and very hard to control. Kenney was fighting Borg who is a 125er & I would say Kenney is a small BW. He is now facing one of the biggest BW’s, so his grappling will be harder to use here in my opinion. Kenney does have 4 submissions, but none in his last 8 fights. I would be shocked if he submitted Manny Bermudez.
Kenney had a big win in his UFC debut over Ray Borg, but many think he should have lost that fight. He did look good either way though. Bermudez has 3 UFC fights and all 3 have been submission wins. I think this fight is close on the feet but if there is any edge for Kenney that is where it will be for sure. He will need to keep this fight standing and if he can then he could get a KO or win a striking based decision. Manny’s ground game is something special though and if this fight hits the mat just one time then it could be over. It does not take Manny long to find a submission once on the ground but getting it to the ground will be his biggest struggle most likely. I think he is good enough to keep it close on the feet, but I have a hard time not seeing this fight hit the mat and I think when it does we see Manny lock up his 4th submission in this UFC. I think he is levels above Kenney on the ground and that is why I am picking him here.
On DraftKings, Manny is my preferred play here. In his 3 UFC wins he has scored 105, 105, and 103 DK points. I think he has a solid shot of getting over 100 here as well but he is going to need this fight to hit the mat for it to happen. I like his price a good bit though and that will make him one of my top guys on the slate most likely. I think he is playable in all formats and if he gets over 100-points again at $8.4k then he is very live for the nuts lineup. I think Kenney is a fine play as well if you are picking him to win but I like other guys more, so I am not sure if he makes my player pool or not. If you are picking him then I think he is playable, but he is a GPP only type of guy because Manny could tap him early in round 1 and that would kill your cash lineup if you took a 0 from him at $7.8k. I expect Manny to be fairly popular this weekend, so Kenney is a solid play if you want to go against that ownership and get Kenney at a low ownership number himself. I am not against it, I just don’t know if I pull the trigger on that myself and I would much rather have Manny here.
Winner – Manny Bermudez via 2nd round Submission
Drakkar Klose $9,000 vs Christos Giagos $7,200
Drakkar Klose
Age: 31
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Fight Ready MMA
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 50
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -185
This will be the first fight of the year for Drakkar Klose. Klose was supposed to fight Beneil Dariush last month, but Dariush was injured. Klose is coming off a very disputed decision victory over Bobby Green, but overall has a stellar UFC record of 4-1. He is very cocky, and almost shows disdain for his opponent’s striking, walking them down with his hands down. He has good leg kicks, especially the low, calf kicks that his camp is known for. He will close the distance with big uppercuts or big hooks and does leave himself open to shots to the body. He doesn’t have great hands, so he prefers to be all the way in or all the way out. He throws a lot of body kicks, head kicks and leg kicks from the outside, and does a lot of mugging to try to get opponents to close the distance where he can duck under and shoot a takedown. He likes to throw a lot of explosive attacks to close the distance & get in the clinch as well. He throws superman punches, flying knees, spinning backfists, all to close distance and stay active. He will throw uppercuts after he ducks under if he can’t get takedowns. He catches kicks well and will get takedowns off them. He will also keep a lot of forward pressure, and in this fight especially, I imagine him trying to close distance quickly. Klose has 4 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished.
Klose is a good wrestler, and very strong in the clinch. He does a great job of ducking under punches in the pocket and getting in on singles & doubles. He will use the single to push his opponent against the cage, and work from there. He has nice, short knees, elbows, foot stomps, and good control. He is very strong, and will lift his opponents in clinch, circling to the back and trying to drag opponents to the ground. Klose doesn’t have great takedowns in MMA and hasn’t held many fighters down in the UFC. He has no career submissions nor has he been submitted. In his last fight with Bobby Green, he was taken down with a body lock, and mounted. He was out wrestled by Green & that was telling, to me. I’m not sure he can takedown & control Giagos. His cardio is his best asset in this fight. Klose needs to be aggressive & force Giagos to fight on the back foot. He has to throw leg kicks, clinch up control & try to take Giagos down. He will have more cardio in round 3 & could possibly dominate or finish in the round.
Christos Giagos
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Black House MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 46
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +160
Christos Giagos has won back to back UFC fights for the first time in his career. He was a big underdog against Damir Hadzovic & won in dominant fashion. It was the best performance of his UFC career. Giagos is a well-rounded fighter. He has nice movement & feints on the feet. He likes to pot shot opponents from the outside. He will walk opponents into his straight & overhand rights. He has a nice one-two. He will throw one-twos & left hooks to the body. He will throw a nasty left hook, straight-right hand combination. He definitely has power & can drop opponents when he walks them into straight & overhand rights. He has a nice front kick to the body, and the head. He likes to close the distance with straight punch combinations into takedown attempts. He is also good at using his body shots to set up takedowns. He has a strong chin and has only been finished 1 time via strikes vs the hard-hitting Josh Emmett. He has 7 KO/TKO’s himself.
Giagos likes to mix it up, and he does a good job of setting up his takedowns with punches. He likes to close the distance with aggressive blitz attacks and then duck under into double legs. He has decent body locks, and nice knees in the clinch. He landed some nice single legs in his last match. On top, he isn’t that great, but he will control opponents and land short punches. He will posture up and throw elbows. He will look to get to the back and lock in rear naked chokes. He was able to grind out his opponent in his last match and had several double leg takedowns. His takedown defense is good as well. He has a good sprawl and is hard to get in on. When he does get taken down, he’s good at creating immediate scrambles to get back to his feet. When opponents do cement top position on him, he has a bad tendency to give his back. Giagos has been submitted 4 times. The last two times he was submitted, it was vs Gilbert Burns & Charles Oliveira who are animals on the ground. He can be taken down by well-timed double legs & in the third round he tends to get tired. He will become much more stationary & shoot bad takedown attempts. He dominated his last fight everywhere. He out struck & out grappled Hadzovic but did get tired again in round 3. To me, this is a very winnable fight for Giagos. We have seen Klose get frustrated by movement before & just do nothing but taunt against David Teymur. If Giagos can use that same type of movement, pot shot, & frustrate Teymur, he could win the fight. If Klose tries to pressure heavily, Giagos has the threat of the takedown as well.
Klose has been to decision in all 5 of his UFC fights and I have heard he wants to go back to being the finisher he was back on the regional scene. So, we could see a different guy here based on what he says, but I am going off what I have seen so far, and I don’t really see him getting a finish here. He is the better striker who lands at a higher rate with higher accuracy. I expect him to win the striking battle here, but I would say Giagos is the one with more power and I think his path to victory on the feet would be the KO. Klose is a solid point fighter and I don’t see him wanting to take a lot of chances getting the KO if he is clearly winning the point battle. Giagos should look for takedowns here though. He is more of a wrestler and that is going to be his best shot at winning this fight. I don’t think he can lock up a sub, but he could use takedowns to win rounds if he can keep top control. I think Klose is good enough to keep this standing though, so I am going to lean with Klose winning 2 if not all 3 rounds here.
Maybe Drakkar does change his style here and go for the kill, but I am still full fading. He has yet to see even 70 DK points in a UFC win and at $9k he is just going to be priced out of my lineups. He will be low owned, so maybe take some shots at the $100k with him, but I don’t want to invest $25 per lineup on him finally changing his style and getting aggressive enough to pay off that price tag. That makes Giagos my preferred play here. He will make my player pool and he is cheap enough to help us get the other $9k fighters into our lineups. He is a solid star/scrub type of guy here and he should look to wrestle. If he can pull off the win I think he gets over 10x here. I just don’t see him winning so I won’t be loading up on him. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably have 0 Klose and 2-3 Giagos. I will be rooting for my prediction to be wrong here, but I do think the most likely outcome is 65-70 DK points from Klose getting a UD win. I think Giagos is a fine cash game play though because he should see 3 rounds and he could score 30-40 points in a loss.
Winner – Drakkar Klose via Unanimous Decision
Cory Sandhagen $8,700 vs Raphael Assuncao $7,500
Cory Sandhagen
Age: 27
Height: 5’11
Weight: 135
Reach: 71”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -185
Cory Sandhagen is looking to take another big scalp on his way to the UFC title. He is 4-0 in the UFC, coming off a win over perennial top 10 opponent, John Lineker. Now he is facing a perennial top 5 opponent in Raphael Assuncao. If he wins this, he will plant his flag amongst the elite. Cory Sandhagen is a high-volume striker with solid wrestling skills. Sandhagen averages almost 10 strikes landed per minute, and only absorbs 2.7. He likes to leap into punches, and he can land shots from a long way out. He has a nasty jab, and a strong, straight-left hand. He is always switching stances and will switch stances mid combination. He likes to throw a jab from southpaw, then change stances & throw a straight-right hand. He uses a lot of feints & false starts to try to hide when he is closing the distance. He will dig to the body with hard hooks, as well as hard low leg kicks. He has a nice check left hook and will throw a left hook to the head then to the body combination. He has strong body & head kicks as well and is always throwing volume, keeping the pressure & pace high on opponents. In close range, he does a great job of throwing uppercuts & body shots, mixing it up & making it hard to know if the shots are coming to the body or head. He didn’t react well IMO to being backed up when he fought Alcantara. He backed up against the cage and allowed Alcantara to land some clean shots before panic wrestling & getting caught in a nasty armbar. In his last match though, he was able to deal with one of the best pressure fighters in the sport & was walking him down. Sandhagen has solid power with 4 KO/TKO’s He has never been finished and has only lost one fight via decision.
Sandhagen is a solid wrestler, and strong in the clinch. He does a good job of backing fighters up to the cage when he gets his combinations going. He will throw nasty knees to the head & body from the Muay Thai clinch. He will throw nice standing elbows in the clinch and does a good job of disengaging with spinning elbows & backfists. He has a good single leg takedown, and doubles against the cage. Against Alcantara he showed incredible resolve on the ground. He had his arm fully extended, in a deep armbar, and refused to tap. He ultimately was able to get out of it and landed some brutal ground & pound before getting the finish in round 2. He was able to stand up in Iuri’s guard and land nasty straight punches. He does a good job of floating and being able to keep his opponent in a wrestling ride type position when they try to belly down & stand up. He finished Alcantara in that position with heavy shots. Sandhagen can go 3 rounds with ease, get hurt & recover, and overall just has phenomenal cardio. Sandhagen has 2 career submissions.
Raphael Assuncao
Age: 37
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Ascension MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 11-3
Fight Matrix: 12
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +160
Raphael Assuncao suffered a big loss in his last match. He had worked his way back up to title contention after a loss to TJ Dillashaw with 4 consecutive victories. He was in a title eliminator fight but was dropped & submitted by Marlon Moraes. At 37 years old another loss will be a death blow to his UFC title hopes, so his career is basically on the line in this fight. A loss here would severely diminish his stock. Raphael Assuncao is extremely good. He has good striking, with great striking defense, great BJJ and takedown defense, and amazing cardio. He is primarily a counter striker who likes to pressure and stay in his opponent’s face, making them fight while moving backwards. He throws great leg kicks, and also comes over the top with a beautiful counter right hand. Assuncao likes to keep the fight at a methodical pace and does that through his pressure and countering, making his opponents weary of throwing due to the counter strikes and winning by pot shotting from the outside. He does a great job of skipping the jab and coming over the top with the right hand or landing a leg kick. Inside, he will throw well times flying knees, and nice uppercuts. He is extremely hard to hit especially to the head. He has very tricky head movement, he switches stances off his kicks and throws nice body kicks, slipping back and throwing them when opponents attack with a strike. He is the less explosive athlete in this fight, and if Sandhagen can find his range & start to move in and out, that could cause him issues. Assuncao will never hunt for knockouts & fights to win decisions more than get finishes. He has 4 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has only been KO’d one time in his career & never at 135.
Assuncao is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, but not an extremely active takedown seeker. He does have good reactive double legs & he will throw knees right of the break. He will shoot singles & has decent body lock trips. On top, he is active with submissions & will work quickly. He likes to take the back, but he hasn’t had many submission victories since he started becoming a proficient striker. He has 10 career submissions, but none since 2013 & only one in the UFC. He has great cardio & knows how to win decisions.
This is a new breed vs old breed fight. Assuncao has fought and beat a lot of the top guys in the world and he has been at the top of the division for a long time. However, now he is 37 years old and he is coming off a submission loss. Sandhagen came into the UFC a year and a half ago and he has looked amazing. His first 3 wins were all impressive finishes, and then his last fight he beat John Lineker to show he can compete and beat top competition. I think this is a great fight to see how good Sandhagen can be and I like him everywhere in this fight. I think he is the much better overall striker and has more tools in his toolbox. I think he has more power and is more likely for the KO of the two, but his pace and volume is what is really going to set him apart here I think. On average, Assuncao lands 3.34 significant strikes per minute compared to Sandhagen’s 8.49. I don’t see Sandhagen holding back here because he just beat a much more dangerous striker in his last fight and I don’t think he will be too worried about Assuncao’s power. I like Sandhagen a lot on the feet in this match. The ground is where I think it is close. I do think if Assuncao wins this fight that it is going to have to be by submission. He doesn’t go for takedowns often, but if he can get in top control then maybe he can find his way to a RNC or something that can put Cory to sleep. We have seen Cory fight out of crazy submissions before though, so I think he would need to put him out to get the sub. I just think Cory is slick enough on the ground to survive, or even get a submission of his own. I think this fight mainly plays out on the feet and I think Cory beats him up for 3 rounds unless he can get a finish. I think it is Cory’s time and he is a possible future champ in this division.
On DraftKings, Sandhagen is my preferred play here and I like him in all formats. He has scored 100 or more DK points in all his UFC fights so far and if he does it again here then he has a good shot at being on the optimal lineup. Assuncao isn’t the greatest matchup for DK points, but I think he could still get to 100 and I feel good about 85 or more from him. I think he would need to get submitted for Assuncao to win somebody $100k and I don’t think I want to invest in that happening. I wouldn’t talk you off using him in any format, but I think you need to predict him to finish to want to invest in him for GPPs. I think he would be a better cash punt than anything because I do see this going all 3-rounds and I think he could put up 30 in a loss. I would rather have Cory in all formats though and at $8.7k it isn’t too hard to fit him into lineups this week. This could be the first fight we don’t see him hit 100 DK points in a win, but I would be shocked if he scored less than 70 in a decision win and there are other favorites on this card where that is a real possibility.
Winner – Cory Sandhagen via Unanimous Decision
Devonte Smith $9,600 vs Khama Worthy $6,600
Devonte Smith
Age: 26
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 76”
Gym: Factory X Muay Thai
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 56
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -800
Devonte Smith is on his third opponent for this card as two other fighters have pulled out. This time Smith actually will be taking on a friend & fighter he’s trained with before. Devonte “King Cage” Smith is looking to run his UFC record to 3-0 & continue his march towards title contention. He has finished his first two UFC fights by KO in the first round. Devonte Smith has been on an absolute tear since joining Factory X. He has 4 consecutive KO’s all in round one. He has a pretty nasty jab, and strong low kick. He has a great jab, right hook or jab, straight-right hand combination. He has very good distance control & moves in and out very quickly. He has good straight punch combinations & his hand speed is elite. He has a good body kick. He has dynamite in his hands, and real one punch knockout power. He has ended 9 of his 10 wins via KO/TKO. He has been finished by strikes once, more due to being exhausted and put in a position on the ground he couldn’t get out of rather than getting hurt with big shots.
Smith is improving as a grappler, but he is more of an anti-grappler. He tries to use his wrestling in reverse and keep it on the feet. He is improving his footwork, and not allowing fighters to close the distance or back him towards the cage as frequently. He has strong hips and does a good job of getting his back to the cage and digging an underhook to circle off. He finished Joe Lowry with nasty elbows to the head when Lowry was attempting a double leg against the cage. He does a good job of sprawling, and sniffing shots out and stuffing them. He will go for double legs himself and has big, explosive slams if he can get his hands locked. He has devastating G&P when he’s on top, and he can put people unconscious with those shots. He finished Julian Erosa with nasty ground & pound in his last match. His cardio was a problem in his one loss against John Gunther, but Gunther is a guy who eats big shots and continues to press forward with a grinding, wrestling style. That was also prior to joining Factory X and becoming a full-time fighter. Devonte is not a submission threat with just one in his career. Smith has never been to decision in his career.
Khama Worthy
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: N/A
Gym: Personal Training Tactics
From: Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 292
Last Fought: 3 Weeks
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +500
Khama Worthy is making his UFC debut on about 5 days’ notice. Worthy has won 5 consecutive fights to earn this opportunity after starting his career 9-6. Worthy seems to be a kill or be killed type of fighter. I haven’t been able to see his last 7 fights & it’s hard to get a read on him. Worthy is a dangerous guy especially early in fights. He is very wild & aggressive. Worthy has 7 knockouts in under 2 minutes. Worthy is going to be undersized here. He has fought a lot of fights at 145 lbs. He did say he had to cut 17 lbs to make the weight, so he may be a little bigger due to it being short notice. Worthy has a nice jab, and a good one-two. His right hand definitely has power & I’ve seen him rock & drop multiple opponents with it. He likes to explode into range with left hook, right hook combos, and when he connects he stuns a lot of opponents. When he gets in the pocket, he is super crazy. He will throw wide hooks, uppercuts, jump knees, front kicks to the face, but doesn’t set things up. He will throw nice timed knees to the head. He even throws standing hammerfists. He is a fun guy to watch & puts it all out there. The problem with his style is while he’s throwing out all these crazy techniques, he has virtually no defense. He has his hands down & is wide open to be hit. I have seen him dropped many times & flatlined with brutal, stiff KO’s. He definitely has taken a ton of damage. His defense is his offense & if he lands first & takes you out, he will win, but if not, he can get slept. Worthy has been knocked out 5 times. Worthy has 9 KO/TKO’s of his own.
Khama Worthy is not an offensive grappler & from what I’ve seen has very bad takedown defense. He gets taken down extremely easily whether it’s with a shot from the outside or a clinch takedown. He will try to dig double underhooks & disengage, but his wrestling is not UFC level. He will try to scramble to the back when opponents go for takedowns and will submit fighters after he drops them. Worthy has 2 rear naked chokes & has been submitted one time. Worthy has been finished in all 6 of his losses & has finished 10 of his 14 pro wins. Worthy is going to have nothing to lose here. He needs to go out there & go for the knockout like always. He has a punchers chance here.
Worthy is taking this fight on less than a weeks’ short notice. He is a striker and he has been (T)KO’d 5 times in his career. He is going against one of the more powerful punchers in the division here against Smith and I think he is at a big disadvantage here. Smith is very fast, has great hands, and a killer instinct. When he has his opponent hurt he will swarm on them and get the finish. If he cracks Worthy one hard time that is probably the beginning of the end of the fight. There isn’t much updated footage on Worthy but to me he just looks like a guy with power and that is about it. I don’t think he would make the UFC if they didn’t need a guy on such short notice. This fight should get him another UFC shot as well so it at least got him in the door. But I think he goes down and I think he goes down early. Smith is just too good and fast for him and I don’t see this going to the 3rd round. I think Smith makes this look easy and puts him away in round 1. If you want to bet Smith, then I would look at the ITD line or the round 1 line if you want better value.
Smith is my favorite play on the slate and I think he is the safest bet for 100+ points. There is no ITD line for him as I type this, but I would guess he is -200 ITD in this spot. I like him in all formats this week and the only issue I will have is being able to afford him. I won’t go all-in on him because I like a lot of favorites on this card and I want to spread out my exposure. But he will be one of my highest owned guys of the week. I think Worthy would be a GPP only shot if you are trying to be contrarian going after the $100k. If he wins, it will probably be by knockout and that would not only put him in line for the $100k but it would also kill more than half the field with the Smith ownership. I don’t think I will play him but if I end up with 70% or more Smith then I might make 1 hedge lineup just in case.
Winner – Devonte Smith via 1st round (T)KO
Ian Heinisch $8,800 vs Derek Brunson $7,400
Ian Heinisch
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: 71”
Gym: Factory X Muay Thai
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -145
Ian Heinisch has taken the UFC by storm. He has won back to back fights against high level opponents and is coming off a big upset victory over Antonio Carlos Junior. He is getting a top 15 opponent in this matchup, and a chance to break through. Heinisch has been through the struggle in life, battling back from true adversity & he will never fold in the cage. Heinisch is an explosive finisher who goes in there to take fighters heads off. He is very athletic & puts the pressure on right away. He is constantly feinting the takedown & trying to come over the top with hooks & overhands. He has nice round & front kicks to the body. He can throw the kicks without setting them up and be hit clean or taken down off them. He does a great job of closing the distance and throwing a left hook into a double leg or faking a double leg and coming over the top with his right hand. He has massive power, and one shot can put fighters completely unconscious. He has 4 career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes and is a rough and rugged fighter who I think you would have to put out to stop him.
Heinisch is a great wrestler. He is very physically strong & wears fighters out in extended grappling situations. He is always attacking & aggressive with his Jiu-Jitsu. He is a former Division ll college wrestler, and he has explosive double leg shots. He does a great job of setting his shots up with punches. He will stalk opponents to the cage, close the distance and shoot double and single leg shots. When he takes fighters down, he works quickly and likes to get to half guard where he will rain down heavy elbows. He can put fighters’ unconscious with elbows and is a scary individual in top position. He does a great job of putting his opponents head against the cage & throwing G&P where it’s hard to throw up submissions. He has good chokes and will attack with guillotines and front chokes. He jumped on a guillotine against Cesar Ferreira, and almost finished, he also almost finished an armbar at the end of round 1. When he was taken down, he was able to attack with submissions & eventually scrambled to his feet. He wore Ferreira out and took over down the stretch in the fight. He did get his back taken against Justin Sumter and was submitted by Maluko Perez. He has 2 submissions & one submission loss.
Derek Brunson
Age: 35
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 78”
Gym: Hard Knocks 365
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 10-5
Fight Matrix: 12
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +125
Derek Brunson got back in the win column with a decision victory over Elias Theodorou. Brunson went back to using his wrestling in this fight, but it was a very sloppy decision. I don’t think it was the best performance by Brunson. In my opinion, a prime Brunson would have taken Theodorou out. He is 35 years old now & in the down side of his career. In Brunson’s career every opponent he’s lost to except Jacare Souza has been a UFC champion. He has been able to turn back fighters similarly ranked to Heinisch time & time again in his career usually brutally. Derek Brunson is a big, strong, explosive athlete for this division with one punch knockout power. He is extremely dangerous in the first round. He comes hard, blitzes and throws huge overhand rights. He almost attacks with a reckless abandon which has gotten him a ton of first round finishes against lesser competition but gotten him in trouble against the elite of the division. Brunson will throw the occasional leg kick and front snap kick, while also trying to gauge distance with the jab. He sometimes doesn’t set things up and will just lunge in. He does do a good job of faking level changes in between blitz combinations making him harder to read. He does have fast hands in the pocket and will throw straight punches with both hands with bad intentions. When he has a fighter hurt he really will swarm and go for the finish. He has big power with 10 knockouts, but all of them are in round 1 and after that he slows down. He has a solid chin, but bad defense, and enters the pocket with his chin high and hands low making him an easy target. He has been finished with strikes 4 times in his career.
Brunson is a former Division Two All American Wrestler. He has become more of a striker in recent memory & hasn’t really used his wrestling much at all. In his last fight, he went back to his roots & took Theodorou down multiple times. He unsuccessfully tried to takedown Adesanya 14 times. He was 4 of 20 vs an old Anderson Silva & couldn’t hold him down. Brunson likes to close the distance and get the single collar tie where he is strong and will land nice, hard uppercuts and short hooks. He has fast hands and can throw in combination making him dangerous even if his opponent is in a dominant clinch position like the Muay Thai plum. He has a decent double leg, but he telegraphs it and shoots from too far outside at times. When he does get in on the legs he is hard to stop from taking fighters down and is a strong guy. He does a good job of grabbing a single leg, then going up to the body lock clinch driving his opponent to the cage and getting a double leg. If he can get on top he has solid ground and pound and will rain down punches and elbows. He likes to get to the back and get the rear naked choke, but he isn’t a huge submission threat with just three in his career. He has never been submitted. He does get tired as the fight goes on and 21 of his 26 fights have been finished in round one.
I picked against Heinisch in both of his UFC fights and he proved me wrong in both of them. He is a well-rounded fighter and he will go hard for 3 full rounds and I think the longer this fight goes the more it will favor him. I think Brunson has more power and is always live for an early knockout. He is also the better wrestler of the two. I don’t think he will be able to do much with takedowns here, but he is more likely to get them. They both land slightly over 3 significant strikes per minute and I do expect this fight to be close in the first half of the fight. Heinisch is the more technical striker, the more accurate striker, and is less hittable. Brunson has a bad habit of sticking his chin in the air when he strikes and Heinisch could capitalize on that and get a KO of his own. I think Brunson’s best chance at a win here would be to get a 1st or 2nd round KO. But, I do see both of those rounds being close and I think Heinisch takes over late. I think he could win all 3 rounds here, but I will take him to win rounds 2 and 3 for a 29-28 unanimous decision from being the guy landing more strikes and just looking like the younger/fresher guy.
On DraftKings, Brunson is my preferred play here. I have seen a bunch of people betting Ian this weekend and that makes me think he will be more popular than he should. That is taking me off him. He hasn’t reached 80 DK points in either of his UFC wins and he is priced at $8.8k this week. I think he needs a finish here to outscore that price tag and I don’t want to invest a lot in that happening. Brunson could totally get KO’d here so he might make my player pool, but I will be underweight to the field. I would rather have Brunson for $7.4k because he could get a KO of his own and I think he is a live dog here. I think Brunson is a fine cash game play as well because I think he keeps this fight pretty close and as long as he doesn’t get KO’d he should score well in a decision loss. If I was making 10 or less lineups I would full fade Heinisch this week and I would probably take 3-4 shots on Brunson instead. He could use his wrestling in this fight and rack up points that way and I think he hits harder as well. I like the ceiling he brings to the table, so I would rather just invest in him as the underdog this week and hope that he can pull out the win.
Winner – Ian Heinisch via Unanimous Decision
Sodiq Yusuff $9,300 vs Gabriel Benitez $6,900
Sodiq Yusuff
Age: 25
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Team Lloyd Irving
From: Nigeria
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 91
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -265
Sodiq Yusuff is a tantalizing prospect, and a super athlete. He likes to call himself Blacksplosive & you can see why when you watch his fights. His hand speed is something else. He has very nice jabs. He has a nasty one-two. He will throw a one-two, left hook combination. He has a heavy overhand right. He will throw nice hooks in combination in the pocket. His counter right & left hooks in the pocket have big power, and when he lands opponents feel it. He is excellent at slipping & returning. He likes to back himself towards the cage, and goad opponents into trading. He will slip & rip with big hooks, straight punches, and even lead elbows. He is good at going first, landing a shot & moving laterally as well. He will throw nice jabs & straight-right hands to the body. He is very good at controlling the center and a lot of his opponents get backed up behind the warning track. His speed, explosiveness, & power seem to really shock people early and they get into a defensive shell. He is good at sliding in & out of range. He hadn’t shown many kicks in previous fights, but in his fight against Mike Davis he was throwing nasty, low leg kicks. He has a nice snap kick to the face, and round kick to the head also. His speed is truly what makes him a potentially, special fighter. The ability to close distance and land punches, and just his pure hand speed is absurd. He has been KO’d one time, but it was in a freak way. He got stunned by the mat, and then finished with ground & pound. He has good power and has finished 5 of his 9 wins via KO/TKO.
Yusuff likes to get opponents against the fence and control them there. He will hold them against the cage and land knees, bank time and take the round. He is good at getting doubles and keeping top position. He will posture & land big shots from the guard or half guard. He will get the front headlock position and snap fighters back down if they try to get up. He has very good takedown defense. He is powerful & usually will reverse position against the cage or deny takedowns in the open mat. He has great get-ups and is extremely explosive, so I imagine he is extremely hard to hold down. He attacked with a kimura to reverse position when Mike Davis tried to take him down & stuffed all his takedowns. He has good cardio, is very calm and composed in the cage. He has no submissions, and never been submitted himself. Yusuff needs to stay technical & smart here.
Gabriel Benitez
Age: 29
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 71’
Gym: AKA
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 37
Last Fought:3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +225
Gabriel Benitez is a good fighter out of AKA. He has very good striking. He is a southpaw and has a very dangerous left leg. He attacks the inside leg, body kicks and will go high. His kicks are super powerful. His left straight is very nice and fast. He has a nice jab and will jab then follow with a right hook. He has good footwork and movement and does a good job of sliding out of the way of opponent’s shots while landing counters of his own. He only throws kicks with his left leg, and his right side, fighters really only have to worry about the jab and right hook. He needs to use his leg kick to slow the movement of Yusuff & stay out of boxing range. If he can move, kick, and keep Yusuff in kicking range, that’s where he will have success. Benitez has 7 KO/TKO’s & has been finished with strikes once.
Gabriel Benitez is not a wrestler. He just has 1 takedown in 7 UFC fights. His one takedown was in his last match, where he got a slam knockout. Benitez’s takedown defense has improved a lot in his career, but his takedown defense is still questionable. He has been taken down 18 times in 7 UFC fights, and only defends 56% of them. Off his back, he does have very good get-ups & is hard to hold down. When he fought Barzola, he was able to stand back up a bunch of times, but got taken down 9 times. Benitez does have great guillotines. He will counter takedown attempts with guillotines & jumps on them if he rocks opponents. Benitez has 11 submissions & has been submitted twice.
I’m sold on Sodiq. I think he is one of the best strikers in this division and if he can keep the fight on the feet, he can hang with anybody in the division. I do give him a big edge on the feet in this fight and I like the pace he sets in fights. He also has big power and could get a KO in any round and I think he has the strength and defense to stuff a lot of takedowns to keep this fight where he wants it. Benitez is a solid striker as well and he has great defense. I just think Sodiq is on another level and I think Benitez would have to knock him out to win the striking battle. I think Benitez’s best path in this fight would be to look for takedowns and try to get a submission. I think if he can get this fight to the mat then he is live for an upset submission. I just don’t think he goes for takedowns enough to rely on that happening and I don’t think he is a good enough wrestler to consistently get Sodiq to the mat. He might only be able to get one takedown in this fight and he might need to find a submission before Sodiq can get back to his feet. That is a possible outcome, but I don’t think it is likely and I see this fight mostly playing out on the feet. I don’t think it would be a close enough fight for the judges to rob him in a decision here, but I think Sodiq can finish this fight on the feet in any round. I am going to take him to win this fight by a 2nd round knockout and I think he has a solid ceiling in this division.
On DraftKings, Yusuff is my preferred play here. He has a +140 ITD line and I think he does have a big edge on the feet where this fight should play out. He probably needs a finish at his price tag, but I think if he can keep this fight standing then he probably gets it at some point. My only real issue with getting Yusuff here is that I do prefer Smith for $200 more if I can get there. I think both in the same lineup is fine but then you are taking a stars/scrubs approach and relying on some cheap dogs. If Yusuff wins a decision here, he might only score ~80 DK points and at his price that won’t do the job. I feel more confident about Smith getting that KO, but they could both do it and they could both do it in round 1. If Yusuff does that then maybe he kicks Smith and his 50%+ ownership off the optimal lineup. I think he is playable in all formats but affording him will be the toughest part. I also think Benitez is a fine GPP only play because I think he would have an edge on the ground if he can get it there. He is also very cheap and any win from him could put him on the nuts lineup. I like this fight a good bit and will probably have it in half or more of my lineups. I haven’t built lineups yet, but I see this being one I target a good amount and the FDGTD line is -140 so Vegas likes it as well.
Winner – Sodiq Yusuff via 2nd round (T)KO
Yoel Romero $8,600 vs Paulo Costa $7,600
Yoel Romero
Age: 42
Height: 5’10
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Cuba
UFC Record: 9-2
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -155
Yoel Romero is making his return after a long layoff. He hasn’t fought since his war with Robert Whittaker. Romero is a freak & probably the most athletic fighter to ever grace the octagon. He is a southpaw & tricky fighter. He fights in spurts & is an exploder. He will lull opponents to sleep with low volume & odd movement, and then leap into a fight ending shot or combination. Romero likes to use a lot of kicks from the outside. He throws nice round & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw nice, round kicks to the body & head, and even will mix in sidekicks & hook kicks. He has very nice feints & fakes to set the kicks up. He likes to use the oblique kick to the knee to a left straight or left hook combination. Romero has brutal power in his hands & will explode into left & right hooks, and overhand lefts. If he lands clean, opponents will go to sleep. He is good at slipping & returning with an uppercut, which I think could be useful in this matchup. He will use double jabs to get inside & also switch stances mid combination to create new angles. Romero will use his left hand to counter forward pressure along with flying knees. He has landed multiple flying knees that have finished fights most notably on Chris Weidman. Romero is very hard to hit. He controls distance very well & has great eyes seeing shots coming. Romero when he gets tired though will slow his movement & back towards the fence. A lot of his defense is due to reaction time, so when that slows he becomes hittable. He has an insane chin & crazy ability to absorb damage. I expect Costa to try to attack the body early & often of Romero, which we haven’t seen him deal with much. Romero will walk through elbows, head kicks & in his last fight was just in pure zombie mode. He is an amazing competitor with a never say die attitude. Romero has been knocked out once early in his career by Raphae Calvacante at 205 lbs. Romero due to his pacing, keeps his power over three rounds & has the most third round knockouts in UFC history. Romero has 11 knockouts in 13 wins.
Everyone knows by now Romero’s wrestling credentials. He is a silver medalist in the Olympics & one of the best pure wrestlers to ever grace the octagon. I expect to see his wrestling in this match, as he uses it to counter forward pressure. Romero has one of the fastest blast doubles I have ever seen. He will use the flying knee to disguise his level changes, by jumping & planting into an explosive double. He has an excellent trip inside the clinch. He even has shown ankle pick takedowns, that are super fun to see. Romero, when he gets fighters down will look for brutal elbows & can finish from top position. He hasn’t shown great top control in MMA though, and fighters can get-up from under him. He hasn’t looked like he ever took an interest to Jiu-Jitsu, because he has no submissions or top control. I would be very surprised to see Costa even take him down. His takedown defense is good & his get-ups are amazing. He is almost impossible to hold down. Romero has no submissions & has never been submitted.
Paulo Costa
Age: 28
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 72”
Gym: Champion Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-03
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Mont
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: +135
Paulo Costa is making a return after his USADA suspension. He was suspended for using IVs so it’s interesting to see if his cardio will be the same. Costa has been poking the bear that is Romero & it’s the first fight where Romero & his opponent have heat. Paulo Costa is a sick athlete and a big, imposing figure for the division. He likes to walk opponents down and get their back against the cage and strike from there. He does a great job of staying long and not smothering his shots, while keeping their back against the cage. He has a great jab and a great straight-right hand with good hand speed. He will throw a front kick to the body. He will come over the top with a right hand and has big power. He does a great job of seeing the fighters when they are trying to move away and throwing a kick to the head, body or a leg kick to keep them in front of him against the cage. He will stand right in front of opponents faking & feinting, while attacking the body & keeping the volume high. I expect him to try to back Yoel up attack the body with kicks & out volume him. His defense is not very good. He gets too over aggressive & will wain in crazily. Uriah Hall was able to hurt him due to that & had him on wobbly legs. He also was getting touched up by the jab at will in that fight. Costa does have a solid chin & wears punishment well. He is very cocky & willing to take a shot to give one. He will not back down from Romero here. Costa has power, but not one-shot power. He tends to need long combos to crumble opponents. He does have 4 TKO’s to start his UFC career & 5 in a row overall. He has finished 11 of his 12 wins by KO/TKO. Costa has been able to run through most of his opponents. He did show he can battle through some adversity in his last fight, but he still has never been to round 3. This is a huge step up in competition from Uriah Hall.
Paulo Costa has good doubles, single legs and throws nice, heavy ground and pound. People can get-up from bottom on him. He has great balance on the feet, and never gets out of position. He has pretty good cardio, but I have seen him tired after pushing the takedowns on a TUF show. I don’t expect him to attempt any takedowns here. He was taken down with a blast double in his last fight but got right back up. I feel Romero will see that & test his wrestling here. I haven’t seen much of Borrachina off his back. He does have one submission victory.
This is an awesome fight. Both of these guys are ripped out of their minds and hit like trucks. I would think these guys have the most power in the entire division and I would be pretty surprised to see this go all 15-minutes. Either guy could knock the other out on the feet, but I think Costa has to keep this fight standing to even have a chance. I think Costa is a live dog if this fight stays standing. He should be the faster fighter and he strikes at the higher rate. Yoel is very tough and durable though so he will probably need to put him away. The longer this fight goes, the more I would favor Yoel, even if it is a striking match. However, I think the ground game is what is going to separate these two. If Yoel looks to wrestle, I think this is his fight to lose. I think he can hang on the feet and could get a standing KO, but that is the danger zone against Costa. Costa has been taken down by way worse fighters and if Yoel can get him to the mat I think he ends up finishing this fight with ground and pound. This is by far the toughest fight of Costa’s career, but we can’t say the same about Yoel. With Yoel, it’s really just his age that I am worried about. Also, him just wanting to strike, that would worry me as well. The smart thing would be to go for takedowns so that is what I think he will do and that is why I am picking him here. Yoel wins in round 3 will be a line I look at when it comes out just because more than half of his wins are 3rd round finishes. 3rd round Yoel is a scary man and if it hits the 3rd then I think he finishes then. However, I do think this fight probably ends before then and I will take Yoel by 2nd round GNP (T)KO as my official prediction.
This is one of my favorite GPP fights on the card this week and it is close to an all-in fight. The current line for FDGTD is -365 and I think that looks about right. Either guy could get a 1st round finish here and if they do then I think they are close to locks for the $100k lineup. With the power that both of these guys have, I would be surprised to not see a knockout in this fight. This could be a war up until the knockout as well and it could have one of the higher ceilings on the card for that reason. I think Yoel could look for takedowns and get a GNP finish in round 1 and that will score over 100 DK points. I think Costa could overwhelm Yoel with strikes and finish him in round 1 and that will score over 100 DK points. At their salaries, we will pretty much need the winner in our lineups to have any shot if that is the case and I will have this fight in maybe 85-90% of my lineups this weekend. If not 100%. I don’t see this being a boring fight that goes to a decision and scores only 50-60 points for the winner, so I want a solid investment in this fight as a whole. However, both guys have low floors, so I will get away from this fight in my cash lineup and will just load up on the GPPs. My preferred play is Yoel and I will probably be closer to 70/30 or so in his favor. I think he has a lot more paths to victory in this fight and Costa has never faced a guy like him before. However, Costa and Miocic have the highest ceilings on this card as underdogs and if either win they are basically locks for the nuts. If you are picking him then I think 70/30 in Costa’s favor is fine as well. I just think if Yoel goes for takedowns in this fight that Costa is in trouble and I think that is what will happen.
Winner – Yoel Romero via 2nd round (T)KO
Anthony Pettis $8,300 vs Nate Diaz $7,890
Anthony Pettis
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Roufusport
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 9-7
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -130
Anthony Pettis is getting a huge opportunity here. He is fighting on of the biggest names in the sport and can catapult right back into stardom with a win. He is coming off a highlight reel knockout of Steven “Wonderboy” Thompson & if he can defeat Nate he will be in prime position for a number one contenders match. These guys hate each other & it should be a fun scrap. Pettis is still one of the premier range strikers in the UFC. He has extremely fast kicks and his left body kick is one of the nastiest body kicks in MMA history. He has really nice leg kicks which he used to chop down Wonderboy. He is fast and likes to switch stances and use the opposite stance of his opponent, so he can land those body kicks. He uses a lot of feints and fakes, doesn’t really throw a lot of volume but keeps fighters guessing and off balance and will land big, hard shots. He has a nice check left hook and a good straight-right hand. He has gotten better at using lateral movement and running opponents into his punches. He will need to have that lateral movement on point for this fight. He will open up and start to throw some crazy kicks at times, such as jumping, spinning heel kicks, jumping roundhouse kicks, kicks off the cage etc. When fighters give him space and let him strike, he is elite. When opponents pressure him and jam his kicks and get him moving backwards he is much less effective. Pettis has to stay technical here, move and angle, chop the legs & then go up top. Pettis has 11 KO/TKO’s. His durability used to be excellent, but it seems to be fading a bit. He wasn’t finished in his first 24 fights, but in his last 6 he’s been finished 3 times. He has only been TKO’d in action one time & didn’t answer the bell for round 3 against Ferguson.
Anthony Pettis is a very underrated Jiu-Jitsu player. He isn’t the best or most active wrestler & gets most of his dubs off his backs. Pettis struggles with letting guys push him against the cage and getting in on his legs, his wrestling is very suspect, and he struggles to stop himself from being held against the cage and being taken down with chain wrestling. When he is taken down, he doesn’t get-up very well, but his Jiu-Jitsu from his guard is straight nasty. He does a great job of controlling the wrist and then attacking with triangles. He throws his legs up extremely fast, and he will also attack with a slick guillotine and armbar as well. He has good kimuras. He has very good sweeps himself and will get top position but doesn’t have an amazing top game, a lot of the times he will just get back up. Pettis has 7 submissions & has been submitted one time. Pettis will need to use his lateral movement, always be moving and throwing straight punches. He should attack the body and then go up to the head.
Nate Diaz
Age: 34
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Cesar Gracie Fight Team
From: California
UFC Record: 14-9
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 3 Years
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +110
Nate Diaz is making his long-awaited return after nearly 3 years away from the sport. He hasn’t fought since his two epic matches with Conor McGregor and isn’t getting an easy fight to get back in the swing of things. It was Nate who asked for the Pettis fight though, so he should be motivated, confident & ready to go. I don’t expect ring rust to be much of a factor. Nate Diaz is one of the best boxers in MMA. He blends that with an incredible Jiu-Jitsu game to make a super dangerous athlete. Diaz looks bigger than ever coming into this fight & will be stronger. Nate is a high volume, forward pressure, southpaw striker on the feet. He has a long reach & works behind a snappy jab & a nasty one-two. His one-two is his best combination, and he has pop in his hands. Nate likes to cut off the cage, forward pressure where he can back opponents up & put combinations together on them against the cage. He will go body, head & overwhelm opponents with his volume. He is good at countering low kicks with the one-two, but he is heavy on his lead leg & rarely checks them. That is going to be a big factor in the fight, because Pettis will be throwing them. Nate will throw some leg & body kicks for himself, but he isn’t a big kicker. He has a nice counter right hook, and definitely packs power. He rocks a lot of opponents & then submits then. Nate is going to have to get inside, close the distance & make Pettis fight moving backwards. If he can start to land & keeps the pressure high, he can break Pettis. We have seen Pettis broken before in recent fights. He was finished by TKO against Max Holloway, submitted to a body triangle against Dustin Poirier, and didn’t answer the bell against Tony Ferguson. Nate has to get that doubt back in his head and make him quit. Nate’s defense is not great. He is very hittable & has had a big problem with head kicks in his career. He was finished by Josh Thompson after he landed a flush head kick & dropped with a head kick against Cowboy. Diaz has been finished just once by strikes in his career & has a granite chin. He is one of the most durable fighters in UFC history. Nate has 5 KO/TKO’s.
Nate Diaz is a Cesar Gracie black belt & amazing Jiu-Jitsu practitioner. He is tied for the most submissions in lightweight history. Diaz likes to get most of his takedowns in the clinch. He will get fighters against the cage where he will attack with trips & even go down for double legs. He has decent judo throws as well. Diaz isn’t an active wrestler & not very successful with his takedowns in the UFC. He has landed less than 40% of them and doesn’t defend takedowns well either. He is excellent off his back & can finish inside his guard. He also counters with guillotines. Diaz has a very good triangle & nice armbars. He will use the rubber guard & attack with elbows as well. Pettis isn’t a wrestler & I actually see Nate being more active looking for the takedown. When Nate gets top position, his opponents are in trouble. He will pass to dominant positions like butter & has great submission ability. He is excellent at getting the back & getting rear naked chokes. Diaz has 14 career submissions & has never been submitted. I don’t think Nate would ever tap out. I hope this fight hits the ground, because both these guys are excellent on the mat. Diaz has incredible cardio & going to have an advantage with that. He needs to keep the pressure high & close the distance to win this fight.
This is the closest fight on the card and one I have been going back and forth on for weeks. Both guys are big names in this sport and a win for either guy is going to likely get them a big fight next and maybe even put them in title contention. These guys are both naturally 155 lb fighters but they have both moved up to 170 and shouldn’t have to worry much about making weight for this fight. Diaz is going to be the bigger guy here though and will have a 4-inch reach advantage. He will also be the fighter striking at the higher pace and I think he has the better ground game as well. Both guys are slick on the mat, so it will be fun if we see it go there, but neither guy goes for takedowns often, so I think we will see a striking match for the most part. It is going to be Diaz’s boxing and pace vs Pettis’ flash and power. I do expect this to go all 3-rounds and it should be pretty close as well. I think Pettis is going to need to land some big shots to steal rounds, but I expect him to chop down Diaz’s lead leg a lot on the feet and that could wear on Diaz and help Pettis take over late. I think Diaz’s pace is going to be hard for Pettis to beat though if he can’t hurt Diaz. If he can’t slow Diaz down by hurting that leg or with big shots to the body/head, then I think the rounds could go to Diaz from pace alone. He never slows down, and he puts punches in bunches and mixes them to the body and head as good as anybody else in the world. I might end up changing this pick again this week, but right now I am going to lean with Diaz to get a split decision win. It has been a long time since we have seen Diaz fight though, so I am just assuming he hasn’t lost a step and is still the same guy we saw 3 years ago.
On DraftKings, Diaz is my preferred play because he is the cheaper guy. I really don’t feel good about picking any underdogs on this card so all the dogs with a shot will probably be making my player pool. If Pettis was cheaper then he would be my pick here. Either guy could finish and if they do, they will score high and probably be on the optimal lineup. Diaz will be the guy striking at a higher pace though and if he gets a TKO then it’s probably from volume and he could rack up points that way. I also think this could be a back and forth fight and go to a decision. If that is the case, then maybe the winner just scores around 10x or less than their price tag. That probably wouldn’t make it on the optimal lineup. Both guys have big names, so I do expect this fight to have a decent amount of ownership. If you are high on either guy you will probably need more than 35% to get any real leverage on the field. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably go 3-4 Diaz and 2-3 Pettis. Not an all-in fight but their salaries do make me want to target it and I could see either guy scoring well. I think Pettis probably needs a finish to score highly though and Diaz could be on the nuts with a high-volume decision win. If I used either in cash, then it would be Diaz, but I might just avoid this fight in my cash lineup.
Winner – Nate Diaz via Split Decision
Daniel Cormier $8,500 vs Stipe Miocic $7,700
Daniel Cormier
Age: 40
Height: 5’11
Weight: 255
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: AKA
From: California
UFC Record: 11-1-1
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -135
Daniel Cormier is looking to further cement himself as the greatest HW of all time. After defeating Miocic for the belt, he defended it once & is still undefeated at 15-0 at HW. There has been some trash talk coming in here & both guys are very motivated. Cormier has good boxing, he has a very nice jab, and likes to finish combos with leg kicks. He is always faking level changes and lunging into his shots to set up the clinch or get takedowns. He is at his best when he is walking fighters down, and when he gets opponents moving backwards he is almost unstoppable. It is extremely hard to tell if he is going to shoot or strike, and he starts to take over. He doesn’t throw a ton of combinations with his hands & keeps safe. He has a tremendous chin and has only been finished one time by Jon Jones. He has big power showing that with his knockout of Stipe Miocic and he has 10 KO/TKO’s in his career.
The former Olympian is one of the best grapplers to ever grace the octagon. His clinch work is great, and he probably is most dangerous with his striking from there. He has a nasty uppercut in close, and he will also fake like he is grabbing a single collar clinch and throw a big left hook. Miocic has a bad habit of entering & exiting the clinch with his hands low, which Cormier exploited to knock him out in the first round. He likes to get double underhooks and land big knees to the body. Cormier’s takedowns are phenomenal. He has a great high crotch single leg, he also has very nice clinch takedowns. He is very heavy on top and the only fighter I have seen stand up from under him is Jon Jones. He likes to move to half guard and will throw big ground & pound. He will look for kimuras and armbars from half guard, and then likes to improve position get to mount, make fighters give their backs and get a rear naked choke. He got a rear naked choke on Lewis in his last match. Cormier has amazing cardio and pushes an incredible pace. He has 5 submissions, and never been submitted himself. It’s hard to gauge how Cormier will look here. At 40 years old & coming off back surgery he could look old overnight. He has shown no signs of slowing down though, so it’s hard to say that.
Stipe Miocic
Age: 36
Height: 6’4
Weight: 245
Reach: 80”
Gym: Strong Style Fight Team
From: Ohio
UFC Record: 12-3
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +115
Stipe Miocic is in a do or die situation. If he loses this rematch, it will be very hard to work his way up to the belt. I feel it could really hurt his confidence also. In this fight, Stipe has to use his boxing & keep Cormier at the end of his reach. He is going to have a 7.5” reach advantage. Stipe has very good boxing & a former golden gloves champion. He has an excellent jab, he will double & triple up on. He likes to use the jab to touch his opponents, slip the counter & return with more powerful punches. He is very good at feinting the jab after establishing it to keep his opponent guessing. He has nasty low kicks. He will throw nice one-twos and jab, right hooks. He has a powerful overhand right. He can strike moving backwards, winning the belt that way vs Werdum. He has big power even on the backfoot. Miocic can stand tall & is hittable at times. He has shown very good defensive performances also though vs Ngannou. Miocic has 14 KO/TKO’s & been finished just one time.
Miocic is a good grappler, but not on the level of Cormier. He is a former college wrestler but going to want to be defensive with his wrestling in this match. He did get an early takedown vs Cormier but couldn’t establish top position. Stipe likes to fake takedowns to open up with punches. He will feint single legs, and it makes it easier to get them when he commits. He has a nice snatch single & a good double leg. He doesn’t wrestle very often, but when he needs to he will. He is good at driving opponents to the cage with doubles & working from there. In top position, Miocic isn’t amazing. He likes to stay in half guard & do just enough to not get stood up. Stipe does have a nasty KO with ground & pound vs Alistar Overeem. Stipe has good takedown defense. In this fight, he has to move use his reach & make it a range striking fight, don’t engage in the clinch or wrestling if you don’t have to. I haven’t seen Stipe off his back much at all. Stipe has no submissions & has never been subbed.
This is a rematch for the Heavyweight title and DC won the first fight by KO. I did bet DC in that fight because he was the underdog. I don’t just bet fights because I think somebody wins, I try to find value in the line and I thought that was a 50/50 fight and I got DC at +140 or better in that match. That is the value I like to bet. Now that he won the first fight, I think the line is right on this one. DC is the better wrestler here and as we saw in their last fight, he has power in the hands as well. I still say Moicic is the better boxer, but he is going to need to keep DC at range in this fight and not let him clinch up with him or get him to the ground. I think Miocic can win this fight if he can keep DC on the outside and he could get a KO himself here. Pick wise, I am still going to lean with DC here. I think he is the overall better fighter and if we are just picking who we think wins, I am going to lean with him. I don’t love laying the juice on him here though and on the Moicic side there isn’t enough + money for me to really want to bet him either. I think the line is spot on this time and I don’t really see any value in this fight on the betting line. I am slightly interested in the Fight Goes To Decision line at +255 though because I think this does go all 5 rounds. Either guy could get a finish here, but I think recency bias might be affecting that line a bit and I am going to pick this to be a close 5-round decision. I think both guys will have success, but I am going to lean with DC because of his wrestling. If this fight is close standing, I think he will steal rounds with takedowns. I think he will be the guy controlling the cage though and dictating where this fight will take place. No bet for me for now, but I am going to take DC by a 48-47 Unanimous Decision.
On DraftKings, this is an all-in fight. I highly doubt the winner of this fight isn’t on the $100k lineup and if there is a finish like Vegas thinks there will be, then the winner probably scores over 100 DK points. My preferred play is DC but not by a ton. I am ok with getting off DC in lineups if I am trying to move up elsewhere and I can just go down from DC to Miocic in those lineups. I also think this is a great stack in cash fight as well. I want to lock in the win and get my 100+ points and let everyone else make the mistakes. I think DC has the higher floor because of his wrestling, but they both have low floors and could be knocked out in round 1. I think this is a fight we want in all of our lineups this weekend and I think I will probably favor DC and go 65/35 or something along those lines. If either was a huge favorite and we had to pay $9.5k then we would be able to get away from them, but at their salaries this week the winner will be on the nuts lineups.
Winner – Daniel Cormier via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t takedown a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
- Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100.
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