What’s up everyone?! Welcome to The Inside Line: Xfinity Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the Alsco 300 NASCAR XFINITY Series race at Kentucky Speedway. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Cole Custer $11,400
Elite play who has dominated these high speed tracks so far this season. He put a hurting on the field last 1.5 mile race in Chicago leading 151 laps and capturing 85 fast laps. My pre race dominator favorite
Tyler Reddick $11,000
After 10 straight top 5s Reddick has fallen off as of late with a best finish of 10th in his last 3. I expect him to correct that this week. He is definitely a strong contender for the win. My expectation is a solid top 5 with 10-25 fast laps.
Christopher Bell $10,600
Bell won here last season in his first start at the track. If someone were to share the dominator load with Custer I am going to pick Bell. His lap led and fast lap totals are ridiculous and this week he should only build on those. Elite play.
Justin Allgaier $10,300
Allgaier is super solid and is likely to end up finishing in the 3rd to 8th place range. Unfortunately unless he starts outside the top 10 he is going to struggle to pay off at his price. Unless JRM have found a lot of speed I don’t see him being able to contend with the Elite 3 in terms of laps led and fast laps.
Austin Cindric $10,100
Cindric has become incredibly consistent this year which is great. He is a constant figure inside the top 10. The problem for him when it comes to DFS is he has been qualifying really well. If he doesn’t qualify inside the top 10 he could be a great play. Otherwise hard to imagine him scoring too much over 40 points. Not enough at this price.
John H. Nemechek $9,900
Nemechek has been slightly off his contemporaries at the 1.5 mile tracks. He has run right around the 10th-12th position at all of them this year and that is what we can expect again this week. I am very high on Nemechek as a driver but the team just doesn’t seem to have the speed needed at this track. He will likely qualify outside the top 10 so there is some place diff. likely to be available. If he starts top 10 he is pretty much a fade.
Chase Briscoe $9,600
Chase has been a good bit off his teammate Custer this season in terms of speed but he has delivered solidly in relation to almost everyone else in the series. He isn’t the best qualifier but seems to really click come race time. Very similar situation to Nemechek but slightly less expensive and also offers a slightly better position upside.
Michael Annett $9,400
Annett is having a career year so far with 11 top 10s in 16 races. This hasn’t exactly resulted in consistent scores on DK. He has broken 40 points only 4 times in the last 13 races. He has to offer position differential upside otherwise he is a complete fade.
Noah Gragson $9,200
Before Daytona Gragson was on an absolute tear with five straight races scoring 40+ points on DK. While he doesn’t seem to offer race winning speed just yet he is a very strong stud to par with those elite drivers. Expecting a great 2nd half of the season from Noah.
Brandon Jones $9,000
Of full time drivers only David Starr has scored less points on average than Jones above the $6,200 price point. He is ultra risky in all formats and should not be trusted. He does have top 10 ability so don’t right him off completely but be very careful. I am not a fan at all.
Justin Haley $8,900
Last weeks Cup Series race winner. Still hilarious to think about. Anyways, take nothing from that fact other than confidence and momentum never hurts. Haley has been the most consistent driver this year and is probably the best cash play on the slate. He is averaging 38.3 points which is more that six of the seven drivers right above him in price. Scored over 35 DK points in 10 of the last 12.
Ryan Truex $8,700
Driving the #8 for JRM that has been incredibly fast. He finished 2nd in his only race in this car back in March. While it is hard to be too confident on drivers with such a limited schedule I do think Truex can score yet another top 5 for this #8 team. Really good GPP play this week.
Brandon Brown $8,500
Draftkings with a massive overreaction to a Daytona top 10 finish. He is a top 15 contender and I like him if he qualifies poorly but at this price his normal 30 points won’t be enough. I look forward to the price correction in a few weeks.
Garrett Smithley $8,400
I don’t even know what to make of this pricing decision. He has broken 33 points only once in races not at Daytona or Talladega. Unless he starts ridiculously deep in the field he is a fade. Even then he isn’t a lock to deliver. Just a mind boggling price here for a 20th place driver.
Ryan Sieg $8,200
The over pricing of others means good things for Sieg. Sieg is a legit top 10 threat with a worse finish of 12th on the 1.5 mile tracks this season. In the five races on this track type he is averaging 41.5 points on DK. LOVE him in all contest types. If he qualifies poorly he is lock potential.
Jeremy Clements $8,000
Clements is on FIRE as of late. He is averaging a 14th place finish and 35 points on DK (excluding his 61 point 9th place finish at Daytona). This is really strong return for a driver costing $8,000. All depends on where he qualifies but I expect a top 15 finish this week again
Gray Gaulding $7,800
Gaulding is extremely safe and makes a strong mid range cash play. His worst finish in the last 15 races is 21st and he has finished 17th or better in 12 of those races. If he qualifies outside the top 20 he will make a great GPP play as well. Love what Gaulding is doing this year.
Riley Herbst $7,600
Herbst is driving the #18 for Joe Gibbs. This gives him a car capable of winning the race. Problem is the driver isn’t capable and quite frankly the driver has struggled to show the ability to finish top 10. Herbst hasn’t finished higher than his starting position in any of his 5 races this year. Not a fan here but worth a shot in some tournament lineups given the team he is driving for.
Josh Williams $7,400
Good solid play. Can easily deliver 30+ points. All depends on where he starts but like Williams here this week.
Shane Lee $7,200
Lee has had a couple good runs since returning to the series and appears to be a solid top 20 car. If he starts outside the top 20 he is a great play. Lee’s Crew Chief is Pete Rondeau. Rondeau is a former DEI crew chief and was also the Crew Chief at Furniture Row in the Cup Series. Solid veteran presence calling the shots for Lee.
David Starr $7,000
Starr has been either great or horrible. Lots of risk here. If he hits he can score 30+ points no problem but if not be prepared for him to kill your lineup.
Ray Black Jr $6,900
Black can be up and down much like Starr but with a better overall upside. If he qualifies inside the top 20 there really isn’t much reason to play him but he does offer top 20 finishing ability so with the right differential he can score really well.
Ja Junior Avila $6,700
Avila is driving the #99 for BJ McLeod. This car has ran inside the top 25 for most of the year with Tommy Joe Martins as the main driver. All about place differential here. Qualifying will tell the story.
Stephen Leicht $6,500
Top 25 in 10 of the last 12 races. Completely reliant on where he starts. Averaging 36.7 points in his last 5 races when starting 30th or worse. He has also broken 30 points in all 5 of those races.
Landon Cassill $6,300
Driving the #15 for JDM this week. Not sure if this is just a number swap or if it will be a legit team swap here as both the #4 and #15 are owned by JDM. Either way Cassill can finish in the top 20 and may be under owned based off his recent performances.
BJ McLeod $6,100
McLeod is driving the #4 the week which has been the “lead” car for the JDM stable over the years. If this is a legit team switch and not a number swap we could see McLeod running 5-10 positions higher than normal. Top 20 is completely possible with an outside shot at a top 15.
Vinnie Miller $5,900
Miller is a horrific qualifier. This makes him a safe play on a weekly basis. However, Miller has a limited upside and will likely struggle to break 30 points even in the best of scenarios. Good for Cash but should probably look elsewhere in tournaments.
Ronnie Bassett Jr $5,800
Bassett is likely to finish in that 20th-25th range giving him solid potential depending on where he qualifies
Chad Finchum $5,600
Finchum has been very hit or miss this year. He has broken 20 DK points the last 4 races which is good. The bad is the previous 5 races where his highest point total was 11. In the right situation he can be viable.
Timmy Hill $5,500
Appears to be in the start and park group as of late. Way too risky of a play. If he puts down a decent amount of practice laps and qualifies poorly he may be worth throwing in 5% of lineups but I would not put my trust in him.
Matt Mills $5,400
Mills is a very reliable play in terms of intent to finish and finishing position potential. If he qualifies 32nd or worse he becomes a solid punt level pay to free up some cash elsewhere.
Joey Gase $5,300
Gase has been rather poor this year and is easily the worst of the punt plays that attempt to run the entire race. If he qualifies really really bad then he has some value. McLeod, Miller, Bassett and Mills are all averaging 5-6 points more per race and offer much better upside.
Josh Bilicki $5,200
Start and Park. Fade
Jeff Green $5,100
Start and Park. Fade
Mike Harmon $4,900
NOT a start and park. Should cost around and score 20+. Is a DNF risk but normally rides around collecting every spot possible
John Jackson $4,800
Start and Park. Fade
Morgan Shepherd $4,700
Start and Park. Fade