What’s up everyone?! Welcome to The Inside Line: Xfinity Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the U.S. Cellular 250 NASCAR XFINITY Series race at Iowa Speedway. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
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Driver breakdown
Christopher Bell $11,700
Bell is the clear cut favorite heading into this weekend. He has won the last two races at Iowa leading 280 laps. Even if he doesn’t win the race he is almost a lock to crush out the dom points. If you aren’t playing him you are simply hoping for a wreck or mechanical issue.
Cole Custer $11,300
Custer is probably Bell’s closet challenger for the win. He has led a combined 163 laps the last two races here. He finished second to Bell earlier this year as well. Much like last week at New Hampshire Custer may be a slight step behind Bell at these tracks Gibbs have mastered but he is clearly ahead of the rest of the field. Strong shot at being the other major dominator of the race.
Tyler Reddick $10,800
Reddick got caught a lap down in the first race this year with tire issues and was never able to get back on the lead lap. He still showed decent speed and is a contender for a top 5 this week. However, his price and the validity of Bell and Custer make Reddick a difficult driver to play this week.
Justin Allgaier $10,400
If I had to pick one driver to potentially beat the Bell and Custer duo it would be JA. He is the only non-Gibbs driver to win in the last four Iowa races and is coming off three straight top 3 finishes. Is a legit play in all formats this week.
Michael Annett $10,000
Crazy to think I live in a world where Michael Annett is a top 5 highest priced driver. I don’t believe he can pay off this price unless he offers some serious place differential upside. He is almost a lock for a top 10 at this point of the year but to get in that optimal lineup he needs to score fast laps and a top 5 neither of which I believe he will do this weekend.
Austin Cindric $9,800
Cindric has run solid through the early stages of his three Iowa races. Unfortunately he has struggled to turn that into good finishes. He has a career best of 10th here and doesn’t offer the upside needed to pay off at this price. He also hasn’t been very good overall in 2019. Probably a fade in all aspects unless he offers some place diff.
John H. Nemechek $9,600
Nemechek has had a rough last 4 races with a highest finish of 12th including a wreck early last week. Before that he was a clear cut top 10 driver including his 8th place finish here in June. He has an Average finish of 9.3 in his three Iowa races and has also been running inside the top 10 at the end of all six stage breaks. Needless to say he will be running towards the front but is another driver where place diff will be the key.
Justin Haley $9,400
Sad news as Justin Haley’s Crew Chief Nick Harrison passed away last week. I don’t expect any loss of performance with Chris Rice taking over for this week and if anything I expect it to drive the team to focus and excel down through the summer stretch. As for this week though there isn’t a ton of upside for Haley as the short tracks have not been their strong point. Has a shot at a top 10 but is more likely to finish around 12th this weekend.
Chase Briscoe $9,200
Love some Chase Briscoe every week but especially this week. Has finished top 10 in both Iowa races including 7th in June. He has finished 8th or better in 13 of the last 16 races including 7 top 5s. Just a step off his teammate in speed on a weekly basis but is a very good driver who has done a great job getting most out of every race.
Noah Gragson $9,000
Noah has been a top 5 driver the last two months. Outside of Daytona he has an average finish of 5.85 which includes a 6th here at Iowa. He also captured 14 fast laps in the earlier Iowa race which was his highest total of any race this year. Big fan of him again this week especially if he starts anywhere 8th or worse.
Brandon Jones $8,800
The most frustrating driver of all time. Jones is in elite equipment but simply doesn’t know how to get good finishes. We have seen him show some real speed over the last couple months in bot Xfinity and Trucks though and that should not be ignored. He has an average finish of 9.5 the last four races at Iowa with 1 top 5. Always some risk to playing Jones but could deliver well in gpps.
Zane Smith $8,600
Zane Smith has jumped up a little in price since his last race at Iowa where he finished 5th. That fifth place finish was the end of a four race stretch where Smith had an average finish of 7.75 and an average of 38 points on DK. He has shown clear top 10 and at times top 5 speed in every race he has competed in. The #8 as a whole have been a fringe top 5 car this year as well. All depends on where he qualifies but another strong option this week.
Garrett Smithley $8,400
His inability to qualify has made him somewhat viable but this pricing is pathetic for someone who has an upside of around 17th-20th. Hopefully he qualifies high enough so we can all just fade this guy.
Ryan Sieg $8,200
Maybe Draftkings realized how stupid his pricing was last week at $7,800 but it is still criminally low for someone off back to back top 10s and 41.5 DK points per race. Last week was another strong performance on a track type that hasn’t been his best so far this year. Top 10 possibility this week as well which is great for a driver who usually qualifies in the teens.
Riley Herbst $8,100
I laugh every time I see this dude in a car. Driving one of the elite cars in the field he has consistently struggled to even finish top 10. The one positive is that Harrison Burton drove the wheels off this car to a 4th place finish back in June. The car has the upside but the question is does the driver.
Shane Lee $7,900
Lee has jumped to the highest price driver of that non elite team middle tier. This is going to really hurt his overall value. While he is certainly a top 20 car I don’t believe he has the ability to outrun Gaulding, Brown, or Clements. All about where he qualifies now as he is no longer simply a great play based only on pricing.
Gray Gaulding $7,700
Every week I can say the same think about Gaulding because he is as consistent as they come. I love what he has done this year. Super solid and clearly the best cash play in this range. Gaulding has scored 30 or more DK points in his last 6 races. Gaulding has finished 17th or better in 14 of 18 races and only has one finish worse than 21st which was the season opening race at Daytona.
Jeremy Clements $7,500
Clements is always an extremely viable play but it always depends on where he starts. He has 11 top 15s this year including six straight. The only issue is he often qualifies too high which ends up limiting his upside. If he starts anywhere outside the top 15 he becomes a really solid play at his price.
Josh Williams $7,400
Williams has qualified better than 22nd just once in the last twelve races. That was at Talladega. In those twelve races he has finished inside the top 20 seven times and had a positive place differential in ten races. He started 23rd and finished 17th at Iowa earlier this year and that is pretty much exactly what we should expect again this week. Really solid play for all formats
Brandon Brown $7,200
His lowest price since Richmond in April means Brown has picked up additional value. His 31.4 DK points per race is better than 8 of the 9 drivers directly above him in price. He had a mechanical issue here in June so we don’t have as much info to go off of as the other but he is certainly a top 15 threat. Love this price and big fan of the driver.
Ray Black Jr $7,000
Black is a little more inconsistent than the likes of Gaulding and Brown but often offers the same upside. Not a very good cash play but is certainly a really good play in gpps. Finished 16th here earlier this year.
Stephen Leicht $6,800
Leicht is listed as driving the #4 car this race. With Ross Chastain in the #4 it has been a clear cut top 15 car. Since his departure it has fallen back to about a 20th place car with the rest of the JDM cars. At this increased price it takes a lot of his value away but he is still a good enough driver to score a solid finish.
Ryan Repko $6,600
Repko started 32 and finished 22nd in his only career start in the #01 which was also at Iowa. This was probably about as good as to be expected for Repko but he is certainly going to be in position to replicated that performance.
David Starr $6,400
Starr appears to be back to his normal self with back to back solid runs. I would expect him to run 22nd-25th this week and if he starts outside top 30 he will end up a top play on the weekend. Still a risky situation for cash though.
Will Rodgers $6,200
I am super excited to see what Rodgers can do. Rodgers is a road course specialist who got some attention when he beat Kevin Harvick straight up at Sonoma in a K&N West series race. He also has a fairly decent oval racing track record in the lower series including a pair of top 10s here at Iowa in the K&N Series races. The car he is driving is the #68 which is owned by Brandon Brown. While I am not sure his upside is the same as Brown’s he certainly is in a good postion to deliver a top 20 maybe even top 15 finish in his debut race.
Mike Harmon $6,000
The pray and wait method has worked pretty well for Harmon this year. He has broken 20 points in 9 of the last 11 races and 24 points in 7 of those races. Of course last time we saw him he cost $4900 which made him much more viable. Hard to imagine him paying off at this price.
Joey Gase $5,900
Gase simply can not be trusted. He will be decent one week then crap the next. He still offers the ability to be in the optimal lineup if he qualifies poorly but be careful playing too much of this ultra risky play
Matt Mills $5,800
Mills is coming off a fantastic run last week in what was probably his best overall race this season finishing 20th. While I do not believe he can replicate this he certainly can finish somewhere around the 25th position. His viability will completely rely on where he starts but he is a safe solid play who has gotten better as the year has gone on.
Chad Finchum $5,700
Finchum much like his MBM teammate Gase is far too unreliable. He finished 21st here earlier this year and does posses top 20 potential but he has also failed to finish 7 of the last 14 races. Hopefully he qualifies really well so we can all avoid this 50% DNF rate.
Vinnie Miller $5,600
Miller is such a bad driver that they literally recruited Ross Chastain to simply qualify the car last week. While he has no talent he sure is great at riding around and scoring 20+ DK points. He is likely to qualify 32nd or worse and the further back the better. His price has continued to plummet which makes him more and more viable for DK purposes considering everyone around him are DNF risk.
Dillon Bassett $5,500
Dillon has only ran a couple races this year with only one being useful to us for DK purposes. That race was Richmond which is a track similar to Iowa. He started 33rd and ended up 15th scoring 50.5 points and obviously ending up on the optimal. He is driving the #90 this week which has been a solid car this year finishing inside the top 20 multiple times. Best overall punt play on the slate.
Stan Mullis $5,400
He has failed to finish all 3 races this year. While it is not a 100% start and park odds are it is. Fade
Timmy Hill $5,300
Start and Park. fade
Ryan Vargas $5,200
Making his debut driving the #15 for JDM. He is in a solid car with roughly top 20 upside. He is a relatively inexperienced young driver but he did finish 7th out of 25 cars here at Iowa last year in the K&N Series race. At this price he will see lots of ownership.
Stefan Parsons $5,100
Parsons is driving the #99 for BJ McLeod this week. He has a few races under his belt in trucks and has looked decent enough in those races. This car has been really solid this year offering top 20 upside
Camden Murphy $4,900
Start and Park. Fade
JJ Yeley $4,800
Likely a start and park. Fade
Morgan Shepherd $4,700
Start and Park. Fade.
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