Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr.
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First and foremost, a huge congratulations to DFS Army member ccanelho on second place in the milly maker for $100,000! Congratulations!
Review from last week
$10k and up (Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Tiger Woods)
In the end I had Rahm as my favourite, followed by DJ. These were the 2 I eneded up overweight on (25% for Rahm, 20% for DJ). As the week went on it seemed very likely Rory would end up being the most popular out of this tier, I decided I wanted a piece but did not want to match and/or be overweight (I ended 15% to his 20.56% in the milli maker). Despite Brooks ridiculous major record I didn’t really have a strong opinion either way and wanted to match the field, I ended up using in 15% of lineups which was exactly on. Finally, with being overweight on Rahm and DJ I had to be underweight elsewhere, I used Tiger in 5% of lineups which was 2.44% lower than the field. Overall I think this group was a positive for me on the week but by no means a success. I was a littler bit underweight on both Rory and Tiger who missed the cut, and above on Rahm and DJ, however I only matched the field on Brooks who was the big winner out of this group.
$9k and up (Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Francesco Molinari, Rickie Fowler, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay)
This group was a failure for me and a large part of why this week was not a success. Although I was off of Dechambeau entirely I was underweight on Fleetwood, off of Fowler and under on Molinari while overweight on Cantlay, Rose, Xander and right on the field with JT. Obviously this was not great for me with Fleewood coming second and Rickie getting a top 10.
$8900-$8500 (Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, Matt Kuchar, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama)
The final nail in the coffin for most of my teams was being overweight on Hideki, just under on Scott but still relatively very high, and over on Jason Day while being under on Kuchar and off of Spieth. Oops.
Tony Finau – DK: $7800
A rare hit for me on the week, Finau showed up in a big way with a solo third on just 8.49% ownership.
Webb Simpson – DK: $7600
Webb became very chalky on the week and was a favourite of the sharps with 29.23% ownership in the $3180 contest. Simpson lingered around all weekend but went backward on Sunday for a T30 finish.
Likely Fades
Rickie Fowler – DK: $9300
Jordan Spieth – DK: $8900
Graeme McDowell – DK: $7900
Phil Mickelson – DK: $7500
Patrick Reed – DK: $7400
Kevin Kisner – DK: $7300
My GPP fades were hit and miss this week but overall I think a bit of a misstep. Reed and Fowler both finished top 10 and Spieth/Kisner had solid results inside of the top 30. McDowell was a bust and so was Mickelson but overall the group performed relatively well.
Favourite Punts
Jason Kokrak, Bernd Wiesberger, Erik Van Rooyen, Thomas Pieters, Adam Hadwin, Beef, Luke List, Andrew Putnam, Lucas Glover
6/8 made cuts and two top 20’s is relatively successful for this group but by no means a terrific result.
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Course Preview
In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.
- Players will tee it up at TPC Southwind this week, a par 70 measuring just under 7340 yards
- WGC so we see an absolutely stacked field/short field which should impact your roster construction in both GPP’s and Cash Games
- WGC also means no cut which again should impact the way you build lineups
- One of the harder tests on tour, gives a bit of a bump to the guys who consistently have shown the ability to outperform on tougher tracks
- Tight fairways and small greens put a premium on tee-to-green game to avoid big numbers and give yourself as many birdie opportunities as possible
- Trend of a few different winners/different compositions of top 10’s means theres not a specific ‘type’ of player I am necessarily going to be targeting
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Interesting Plays
In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel
$11k and up (Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy)
Up top you have 2 guys who had disappointing Open Championships and Brooks. Over the years, and especially this year, I’ve noticed a missed cut does not necessarily alter ownership as much the following week as it used too in the past with the super elite in the field (everyone’s caught up to the idea that they can miss the cut one week and win the next). While everyone talks about Rory’s MC lowering ownership we see people playing these same players for the low ownership to get them at close to the same number as the guy whose playing well. Obviously with a shorter field we also will see higher ownership numbers on people as well. Due to this my first thought is Brooks as my favourite within this group.
$10k and up (Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood)
Following the same idea as before to stick with who is coming in hot up top I find it hard to be off of any of these guys. I think they give a bit of a savings over the top tier with great recent history. JT is a guy I jumped on outright when the line came out and I see myself on all three for DFS purposes.
High $8k (Hideki Matsuyama, Bryson Dechambeau, Adam Scott)
For DFS purposes this grouping is extremely interesting to me. We have three guys who all missed the cut last week – with Hideki and Adam Scott disappointing a lot of the field. With safer plays of Kuchar and Stenson above and Shane Lowry below I do think these guys could come in at a lower number for that reason. I think my likely play will be to go with whose been consistent and differentiate by saving a few hundred in salary, but I also think it’s likely viable to mix in one of these guys in an effort to have a unique line with high upside.
Tony Finau – DK: $8400
I was on him last week and I am definitely not getting off now that we have gotten a top finish. Finau showed his game was back with a great week at the Open.
Patrick Reed – DK: $8000
Not quite sure what to do with Reed this week. He is a guy I am typically a little biased against in DFS and for the most part this year that has worked out great for me this year, but with two top tens in his last three appearances I am not so sure what to do. I think at this price Reed could get quite popular.
Danny Willett – DK $7600
Willett is starting to show shades of his former self and aside from one bad in the Irish Open has put up quite the stretch of golf. In his last four starts he has the missed cut at the Irish Open, but also has a T8 at the Canadian Open and a T12/T6 at the U.S. Open and the Open championship. I also think Willett has the game for the course and he is one of the guys I want to be on this week.
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Cash Game Review
I will end each article going over my double-up cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week
The Team (14-10) – Current Streak 1 Loss
Patrick Cantlay – T41
Adam Scott – MC
Hideki Matsuyama – MC
Henrik Stenson – T20
Matt Wallace – T51
Bernd Weisberger – T32
There were a few decisions that I struggled with this week as I went back and forth, but ultimately I ended up sticking with one line-up instead of 2, and unfortunately missed the money line by 16 points. To begin, I locked in Hideki and Adam Scott, both players to me were my favourite value plays at their pricepoint. Although Matt Kuchar was another huge consideration I stuck with these 2 over Kuch, and could not find a way to fit him in the end. Next, I decided Weisberger was going to be a play for me primarily due to his price allowing me to fit another $9k guy. This ended up being Cantlay, another guy I was super high on this week. After these four were set there were different combinations and efforts to see about fitting Kuchar or even Xander in up top with a lower price, but I felt most confident in the duo of Henrik Stenson and Matt Wallace out of all the available options. With the chalk missing for me I was behind the 8 ball to begin with and never had a serious shot at cash once Hideki started going backwards on Friday. On to the next week!
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