Schnarr’s Super Picks DFS PGA Preview – The Open Championship

Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr.

Review from last week

$10k and Up (Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Matthew Wolff, Joaquin Niemann, Kevin Streelman)

 As a disclaimer, I personally did not end up playing GPP’s last week (outside of a few hand built entries) so my ownership comparisons will not be present in this review. However, I still advised on the strategy of sticking to the lower owned plays up top and differentiating there as I felt the tournament was wide open. Despite not playing him personally with so few lineups, this advice would lead itself to playing Matthew Wolff out of the top group, while this would not have worked out with Wolff having the lowest score of the 4 I do think it it’s a realistic GPP approach in a week without any of the usual studs.

Sungjae Im – DK: $9700

 While Im ended up making it into my cash game lineup I think I gave the general public too much credit in thinking he would be lower owned than Glover and/or ZJ. As the week went on and it became apparent that Im would carry plenty of ownership I had no problem switching to Lucas Glover as an alternative, once again on the thought of lower ownership up top to differentiate while taking steady, salary savers down low.

Sam Burns – DK: $9100

 This turned out to be a big misstep as Burns was the only player above 9k to not play a round on the weekend, oops.

Martin Laird – DK: $8200

Laird was solid for the pricetag and outperformed majority of the 8-8.5k range in fantasy points per dollar at a low ownership #.

 Peter Malnati – DK: $7900

 Malnati was a cash game lock for me and a guy I put in the few GPP lineups I played this week. Malnati had a solid week but was unable to avoid the big number and had three double bogeys which kept him from a top 20 finish.

Nick Taylor – DK: $7400

Another week where Taylor was a lock for me in cash games. A T33 finish more than paid off his price this week.

 

 

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Course Preview

 In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.

  • Royal Portrush is a par 71 measuring 7330 yards
  • Wind, wind, wind, this is a week where the weather actually matters as the wind can wreak havoc on a draw and give an entire wave a significant advantage. It’s changing day-to-day at this point but a lot of my analysis and picks will likely end up being dependent on draws with the weather
  • The course is essentially new at this level with the last Open Championship taking place at 1951, I have read people say bombers have the advantage and I have also heard you’re going to need to be extremely accurate off of the tee to avoid trouble
  • As far as I can tell we have a fairly typical links course which will favour the Euro’s who are used to this style
  • With the information I have, I’ll be focused on those coming in playing well, giving a bump to the Europeans, and waiting to see what weather is looking like for a few decisions

 

Interesting Plays

In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel 

$10k and up (Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Tiger Woods)

 Up top you have the worlds elite with some very interesting storylines. You have Rory playing at a course he’s obviously familiar with as he holds the course record with an incredible 61 as a 16 year old, you have Brooks and DJ who always seem to be in the hunt on Sunday at Majors, although neither are coming in with the best recent results. Jon Rahm is coming in the hottest of everyone with a win last week, a T2 the week before and a T3 a the U.S. Open. And you have Tiger who is always a threat now that he’s back. I think McIlroy will get a lot of attention and rightfully so, he knows the course that most are playing practice rounds at for the first time this week. DJ, Brooks and Tiger will also get their normal attention and Rahm has suddenly planted himself in this top tier category with some terrific performances as of late. Personally I think it’s to close to make a decision with all of the variables this week, if I have to pick anyone right now my favourite are Rahm, Rory and DJ.

 

$9k and up (Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Francesco Molinari, Rickie Fowler, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay)

 In this second tier or elite players you have more interesting options. I love the Euro’s as I mentioned above, but also am always a big fan of Patrick Cantlay. I love the pricepoint and think he’s likely a guy I’ll end up heavily overweight on. It’s hard dismiss any of these players as they can all contend and win, however I do think you have to inevitably be off of or heavily underweight on a few in order to load up on others. Things can obviously change but on first look the guys I think ill be over on include Cantlay, Rose and Schauffele, while I think I’ll likely be under on Rickie, Bryson and Fleetwood.

 

$8900-$8500 (Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, Matt Kuchar, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama)

 The third tier of superstars come in at $8500 and up this week. Again, just like everyone else at this pricepoint and up there is legitimate reasoning behind playing each and every one of these players, all of them can win and no one would be surprised. With that said, I am a big, big fan of Hideki and Adam Scott out of this range. Both guys have been on fire approaching the green and are coming in with terrific form.

 

Tony Finau – DK: $7800

Finau is interesting to me as he had a month where he struggled but put together 4 solid rounds for a T23 in his last event (albeit in a weaker than average field). I do think Finau is the type of guy who has a track record of being upfront and honest with reporters and I’m very interested with what he has to say about his game this week. I think the recent struggles will keep some away but if he is confident in his game going in I like throwing Tony into your GPP player pool.

 

Webb Simpson – DK: $7600

 Webb has had a great track record sense his T5 finish at the Masters. The strokes gained have been happening in a repeatable fashion and we have seen Webb get it done in a variety of ways at a bunch of different courses. With four straight made cuts at The Open Championship and a T12 at this event last year I am a fan of Webb going into this week.

 

Likely Fades (will update in notes)

Rickie Fowler – DK: $9300

With so many options up top I’m not sure how I am going to fit in Rickie 

Jordan Spieth – DK: $8900

Spieths game seems to be trending in the right direction overall but I’m not ready to take a chance with so many great options at similar pricepoints

Graeme McDowell – DK: $7900

Euro that has not played well in his last 2 apperances at European events

Phil Mickelson – DK: $7500

Don’t care that he lost 15 pounds

Patrick Reed – DK: $7400

Kevin Kisner – DK: $7300

 

Favourite Punts

Jason Kokrak, Bernd Wiesberger, Erik Van Rooyen, Thomas Pieters, Adam Hadwin, Beef, Luke List, Andrew Putnam, Lucas Glover

 

Cash Game Review

I will end each article going over my double-up cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week

The Team (14-9) – Current Streak 2 win

Sungjae Im – T26

Zach Johnson –T37

Peter Malnati – T56

Cameron Tringale – T16

Vaughn Taylor – T6

Nick Taylor – T33

I felt very confident when building a cash team this week, up top I felt I had three viable options in Lucas Glover, Sungjae Im and Zach Johnson and I was very comfortable with a few key guys down low in Vaughn Taylor, Peter Malnati and Nick Taylor. Ultimately, Tringale became my next option down low in an effort to fit 2/3 up top, this worked out well as I was able to get all 6/6 through and comfortable stay in the money with minimal worry throughout the week. This helped bring my overall record over 60% in double ups going into the final major of the season.

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