Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We’re at New Hampshire this week, one of only two short/flat tracks we visit (Phoenix being the other one, though you could count Richmond too…so three of these tracks). Right away that should clue you in on a few quirks to consider when building here, but if not, don’t worry…we’ll get to it!
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
New Hampshire is a flat, one-mile long track that is similar mostly to Phoenix, but also Richmond. That means this race will be a bit slower than others, so drivers that excel at those bigger/faster tracks (i.e. Blaney, Buescher) probably won’t do quite as well here, while others that are really good at short tracks (i.e. Hamlin, Almirola, and Bowyer) will have a good chance to shine.
Also, like what I mention for Phoenix every time we go there, we need to be careful with the cheap drivers as they tend to go down laps in a staggered formation. If you don’t remember, this basically means drivers will go down laps in different intervals (some will be -1, some -2, some -3, some -4, etc), and once they get caught in that cycle, they aren’t getting their laps back. Since this is a short/flat (slower/safer) track, and with how most races have been less chaotic this year, drivers that get caught in that are basically done for the day as far as fantasy scoring is concerned. In other words, if a driver doesn’t have the car and/or skill to keep up or move up at all, don’t play them here!
Lineup construction/correlation
Given what I just went over, I’d suggest going with balanced lineups in cash games and balanced or hybrid heavy lineups in GPP. You can do stars & scrubs, but do be careful with who you use for your punts!
With 301 laps we’re looking at one to two dominators in all formats. As usual, look for one of the front-runners (namely Kyle Busch, Keselowski, and Truex) as a primary dominator and pair them with one of the hybrids as a secondary dominator.
Hybrids
As usual, the hybrids are some of the best looking plays on the board, so let’s look at them first.
Hamlin, Elliott, and Larson are the main three. Bowman will start dead last and will probably be a chalky option (yes he will be in the #48 backup car, but don’t let that concern you…their backup cars are every bit as good as their primaries), so you can default to him in cash games. If you want, you can consider fading him for one of those other three, and hope that he has some issues that will tank a bunch of lineups with a dud finish.
Harvick is in the mix…but just barely. I don’t see him dominating here so he’ll have a pretty tough time paying off compared to the others in his price range. Starting 14th helps, but you can pay down for those other four drivers for the same floor/ceiling (given none of them dominate).
And finally, this is a track where we should be taking some shots with Bowyer. He’s got a good shot at dominating here and finishing very high, so definitely get some exposure to him this week as a secondary dominator.
Dominators
Kyle Busch and Truex are the main targets and they are absolute monsters here. Not only do they have a good chance of dominating early, they also have a shot of dominating the mid/late race, so I sort of expect them both to be up there in the mix. There are enough laps to go around that they could both be in the winning lineup together if they lead 100+ each, so don’t be afraid to reserve a few lineups to stack them (just be careful with the punts you choose!).
Keselowski is definitely in the mix too, but I see him as more of an early-race dominator only (I don’t see him getting the lead back once he loses it here). For that reason I’d prefer to use him in GPP. There’s also a decent chance that Kyle Busch grabs the early lead, so don’t feel like you have to shove him into your entire batch of lineups.
Studs
Outside of Almirola, the studs aren’t too strong this week. I do like him, and he could also double as a dominator (a lot like Bowyer but with less place differential), so you can sprinkle him around too.
Kurt might be chalkier than usual, and doesn’t have a very direct path of paying off here, so do with that what you will. Jones is a bit expensive for his starting position (I liked it better when he started high for a couple thousand less), Blaney doesn’t really excel at these kinds of tracks, and Johnson doesn’t really offer lead/fast lap potential.
Honestly, outside of Almirola, I like all of these guys best on FanDuel because I don’t see them being able to pay off on DraftKings.
Value studs
Newman is the first guy to look at here, and while it’s true he’ll start from the rear in a backup car, I’m not really concerned about that. He’s very good here and isn’t losing that many spots to start with, and I don’t think it’ll take him very long to recover. He’s strictly a place differential play anyway, so it’s not like we’re losing dominator points by him not starting at his qualifying position.
Buescher is next, and while this isn’t exactly the track I prefer to use him at, he’s starting deep enough that’s he’s in play (there is some speed to be had here, and he’s made the most of it in the past).
Byron is my favorite GPP play in this group, as he offers one of (if not the) highest ceilings of these drivers. After that it’s Hemric/Dillon/Menard/Suarez in no particular order. I’m not huge on any of those four this week, but they could be worth having some exposure to in MME. DiBenedetto and Stenhouse could be worth a sprinkle over on FanDuel but they’ll have a tough time paying off on DraftKings.
Value
Due to their starting positions and history at Xfinity tracks, I like Preece and Tifft the most in this group and don’t mind taking them in cash here. That’s also as low as I would go for cash games.
Wallace, LaJoie, and Chastain look to be next in line for GPP purposes with their decently high ceilings. I like them all about the same but I would put their risk factors in about that order.
I don’t really like the ceilings of the others here (Ty, McDowell, and Ragan) this week, and don’t mind fading them for the other options this time around.
Punts
Cassill is the only one I like here. There’s still a decent chance that he gets caught a few laps down and can’t move up, but I do like his chances better than the other four here (who are as good as fades to me). I’d rather just pay the extra bit for Tifft who will have a much easier time keeping up with the pace.
Pivots
I’ve highlighted them already, but this race is pivots galore. I think the strongest groups would be the hybrids and value drivers, as the other groups have a handful of drivers that stand well above the others. I would focus on those two first, then dominators and studs/value studs (mostly on FanDuel for those two) after that.
Closing thoughts
That’s about all for this one. Remember that this short/flat track is a bit different than nearly every other track we’ve seen since the start of the season, so plan accordingly. Play within your means, hedge a few bets, and enjoy the race. I’ll see you all in Slack!