Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We’re back at another 1.5-mile track this week – this time the Kentucky variety – so as usual, there are some important things to consider/remember. Not to worry, we’ll get right to them!
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.
Kentucky Speedway
Kentucky is similar to the other 1.5-mile tracks, though it does have a little less banking (14-17 degrees in the turns, compared to Kansas which sees 17-20 degrees.
Hybrids
As always, the hybrids represent high floors and ceilings, and are great places to start with. Bowman leads the way here, and even though he’ll likely be chalky, he is a great play, so I have to write him up. For cash games you can just default to him as he might see 60% or more ownership, which means he won’t kill you if he duds (and you can still cash with a dud from him). If he goes off and you don’t have him…welp, better luck next week.
I really like Blaney after him, especially for GPP. He’s underpriced for the floor/ceiling he offers here, and if his Penske teammates are having a good day, he’s going to as well (see the stacks info later on). He’s fine for cash games too, but don’t take him over Bowman if you have to choose. Definitely get him in GPP though, with or without Bowman.
Elliott / Larson / Hamlin all come next and are all in great spots. Fine for cash (again, go with Bowman first), great in GPP as a pivot to him or taken along with him for a big mid/high-ranged heavy lineup.
Dominators
Going by the race calc, we see that we want 1 to 2 dominators here. Now, before we continue, there’s something I’d like to address. Call it a mid-season strategy rant. Anyway, I’m going to be a little blunt, so I apologize in advance, but here we go…
There was some talk today, and also at other 1.5-mile tracks, about one Martin Truex Jr. Look, if you guys want to fade drivers for ownership leverage, I get it. This is NASCAR and everybody is subject to the random engine/tire failure, bogus crash, pit road mishap, or whatever else might ruin their day. But something we try and preach here at the DFS Army is consistency, and that’s what I want to discuss here.
We know that Truex is an absolute beast at 1.5-mile tracks. All of them. Not just Kansas, Charlotte, or any other random 1.5-mile track. All of them. He is always a threat to lead 150+ laps and finish in the top-5, if not win it. So any time you are fading him at these tracks, you are fading somebody with one of the best/most realistic chances of scoring 100 or more!
Like I said earlier, if you want to fade him for ownership leverage, that’s fine. I won’t argue against that. But my style has always been to take drivers when they’re at an advantage and fade them when they’re at a disadvantage, not the other way around. When we go to a 1.5-mile track, I already know I’m playing Truex, regardless of where he starts and regardless of whether or not he might be chalky. I don’t care. There are plenty of other places to get leverage to the field, and knowingly fading a guy who is a huge threat to lead 150+ laps on his way to a top-5 finish is not how I operate.
Would you fade Mike Trout against a gascan pitcher on short rest? Tom Brady against a team with poor pass defense? Curry against a team that can’t defend beyond the 3 pointer? No, you would play them because they are in smash spots. Same goes for Truex at a 1.5-mile track. This is a smash spot for him, so you ought to be playing him.
/rant off
Ok, now that we have that out of the way, let’s look at the other guys. Keselowski is right up there with Truex, and I think he’ll be the guy to lead the first stage (possibly more if he can keep the lead off of pit road). I see Truex leading later, probably the second stage or second half, so you could actually stack these two together as they could see 200 laps led between the two of them. If you can only choose one for cash games, I’d probably lean Keselowski since he’ll have a slightly easier time getting to the front, but both of them are absolutely in play here. They both have GPP-winning upside and can make your cash ladders really go off.
Logano comes next, and I like him paired up with Keselowski if you’re using him. There are enough lead laps to go around for both of them, and I could also see them splitting about 200 or so laps led today. Penske stacks are in play!
After those three, it’s your normal mix of Kyle Busch and Harvick. I like the former much better, but I still like the chances of the other three mentioned earlier better. I don’t see Harvick dominating today (not with how he’s been this year), but he could be worth sprinkling around just in case.
Now, as far as pairing them up goes, I don’t mind Keselowski with either Truex or Logano, but if you go Kyle Busch or Harvick, I’d probably use them as solo dominators. Speaking of which, Keselowski and Truex can also be used as solo dominators if you want, but I like Logano best paired with another dominator.
And finally, Suarez and Almirola are last. I don’t think either one of them will dominate, so I’m not big on them, but you can take some shots if you really want. I do give the advantage to Almirola here, but if you use him, you may not want to stack him with Keselowski since that would eat into his early lead laps. Once either one of these guys loses the lead, they aren’t getting it back.
Studs
I love me some Jones today and will probably bust out the hoodie, so you know what that means! Maybe? Well, if not…I just love me some Jones and I think he’ll put on a great performance for us today.
Next up is Johnson who makes a great GPP play/pivot to either Jones or other guys in his price range (Bowman mostly, but don’t forget to stack them in some lineups).
Bowyer is a fade to me. Sorry guy!
Value studs
Two fish walk into a bar. One says to the bartender, “hey barkeep, I want to play some NASCAR DFS today, do you have any advice?” Bartender replies, “well, it’s a 1.5-mile track, so you should probably play Chris Buesc-” “I DONT LIKE CRISH BUSH-ER TODAY, YOU SHOULD PLAY MCDOWL INSHTEAD” exclaims the other fish, rudely interrupting the bartender. The bartender wanted to reply with a snarky comeback, but he could only laugh at the misguidance of the rude fish.
The first fish went on to play Chris Buescher and came home with a tidy profit. The second fish faded him, and as usual, he donated all of his money to the sharks.
Don’t be a rude fish. Play Chris Buescher.
Now, with the news that Newman failed inspection, that does technically make him the better play over Buescher, but that doesn’t make me love him any less (for cash games though, be sure to grab Newman first). Both are squarely in play and you can take one or the other or pivot to Buescher in GPP since his ownership might be lower now. Yay!!
After that, well, there’s not a ton to love here. Stenhouse and DiBenedetto both have high ceilings but can be a bit hit or miss (especially Burrito), so I’d stay away from them in cash. Definitely sprinkle them around in GPP though.
Byron, Menard, and Austin come next. I’d prefer to take any shots with them over on FanDuel today.
Value
Ragan leads the way here by a landslide and should be the first value driver you plug into your cash game lineups. He’s a great choice in GPP too as he offers one of the highest ceilings of this group.
Ty is fine for cash but I can’t say I love him here. I don’t really see his ceiling being high enough for GPP, so I won’t argue against fading him in tournaments.
The rest are all in play as GPP pivots, but if I had to rank them, I would say: Preece, Wallace/Tifft, LaJoie, then Chastain.
Punts
I don’t really love the punts here as I don’t see them keeping up very well (or being able to move up). I don’t expect this to be a chaotic race, so I don’t see them moving up a bunch like at Daytona/Talladega. That said, if you want to run a top-heavy lineup, you can take a shot with them. I’d just prefer to pay up for a driver with an actual ceiling today.
Stacks
Penske is the main squeeze here and you can run any combination of Keselowski, Logano, and Blaney that you desire. I put some examples in the driver list so be sure to check those out!
Hendrick is next up, and again, be sure to check out those examples. Elliott and Bowman is a strong cash duo (if you can’t get Elliott, you should be using Bowman regardless). I love pairing one or the other with Johnson on both sites, and would prefer to add Byron to the mix over on FanDuel instead of DraftKings.
Pivots
As usual, there are a ton of pivots to choose from, but I think we can narrow them down more to the hybrids and value drivers. I’d focus my efforts more on them, as a lot of the other categories have very strong plays that are more likely to be in the winning lineup today.
That said, you can always take some swings anywhere. I would say dominators (especially going with a solo one) and pumping out some stacks would be the next best way to be different.
Most of the value studs can be ignored on DraftKings, as well as the punts, which quickly narrows down our options.
Closing thoughts
As always, be prepared to eat a little bit of chalk if you want to win here today. There are some really strong plays across the board, so rather than trying to get super cute and fade them all, I’d prefer to get creative with them (make a dominator pivot or run a solo one, get some team stacks, stack guys who would otherwise be pivots to one another, etc).
Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!