Hello! And welcome to a new article here at DFS Army where we will be exploring some new ground. My name is Steve, aka Mutt18 (@mutt_18 on Twitter) and I’m excited to be bringing this to all of our DFS Army VIP members! One of the biggest things that I’ve learned, especially in MLB, is that the underlying data doesn’t lie. What I’m going to be doing in this article is looking at players that have really good underlying data but maybe haven’t seen the positive results, which means only one thing…positive regression is coming their way. If we can identify those players before the rest of the DFS community, we can have a huge advantage on the field.
If you’re a DFS Army user then you’re familiar with the MLB Research Station and an item that I seem to see a lot of members overlook is the Trends tab. From this tab it gives you a lot of good information that can put us ahead of the curve compared to the rest of the DFS community. The main items I look at in particular are the Trending ISO, Trending wOBA, and Hard Contact %. Our Research Station breaks down all of those over the last 30, last 14, and last 7.
I’m a big component of stacking, and my favorite is using the 4-3-1 (4 players from one team, 3 from another team, and 1 one-off). This article is going to focus on helping you find those one-offs that can push you over the edge in those GPPs. As dabbingpuggle said in his article here, you can’t just let the Domination Station plug in your one offs for you, you need someone with upside and in a good matchup.
Now, let’s dig in! The first thing we look for is the Trends tab in the Research Station (red box in screenshot below), here’s what you’re looking for:
We’ve recently made a bunch of updates to the MLB Domination Station (including a completely unique to the industry Hybrid Scoring System), take a look at how to use all these new great tools, here!
Ok, now that I have your attention, we’re going to look at some guys that have great underlying data and should all be overlooked by the rest of the industry:
Teoscar Hernandez (FD-$3,200 DK-$4,000) –
Hernandez’s trending stats:
As you can see, over his last 7 he has an ISO of .476 which is up 33% from his average which is actually the highest ISO differential in the Research Station ( given that he meets my minimum plate appearance requirement). You can also see that his Hard Contact % is way up as well. His hard contact is up 20% and his wOBA is also up 20% over that same time frame. Meanwhile over his last 7 games, Hernandez is only hitting .280 with 3 HRs, one of which came last night. Based on his underlying numbers, Hernandez should have been crushing the past 2 weeks and it really hasn’t been happening. It gets even better when you dig into the matchup tonight. He gets to face off against Mike Montgomery who is allowing a .344wOBA and 5 of the 8 home runs he’s allowed have been to right-handed batters. The matchup just gets juicier as Hernandez has a .233 ISO against left-handed pitchers which is just under our elite level of .250. Given all of the underlying data Hernandez is due for some positive regression, and he doesn’t break the bank on either site.
Projected FD Ownership: 0.17% Projected DK Ownership: 0.59%!
Willie Calhoun (FD-$3,200 DK-$4,200) –
Calhoun is really jumping in the Trends tab, just take a look for yourself:
Calhoun’s underlying numbers are really outstanding, as his ISO is up 32%, which is second highest in the Research Station only behind Teoscar Hernandez. The thing that really stands out to me is his Hard Contact percentage is up 33% and his wOBA is also up 18% as well. Meanwhile, over his last 7 games, he’s only hitting .259 with 7 hits, and only 1 home run. He also gets a good matchup today against Mike Leake, who has been giving a ton of power to right-handed batters. He’s also given up a total of 25 home runs this year (2nd most in the MLB), 14 of which have been to righties. While Calhoun’s ISO of .207 against RHPs doesn’t jump off the page, all of his underlying data is telling us is that he’s due for positive regression in the near future and he should be in the lineup tonight with Joey Gallo still on the IL. He’s also very affordable on both sites and he also gets the 2nd best hitters park on the night only behind Coors. No one will be on him and he is beyond due for some positive regression.
Projected FD Ownership: 6.26% Projected DK Ownership: 8.91%
Josh VanMeter (FD-$2,700 DK-$3,800) –
VanMeter is actually the a guy who has had some decent success from this list, and all of his underlying data is telling us that it should continue:
Over his last 7 he has a .579 ISO which is up 25% over the last 2 weeks. While his Hard Contact percentage is only up 6%, it’s because he has been making hard contact at a high rate all year at over 50%. His wOBA is also trending as it is up 17% currently. He has had success over the last 7 games, he’s hitting .500 with 3 home runs yet his price simply doesn’t increase on either site. The matchup is great for him today as well, as Musgrove is allowing a .334wOBA to left-handed batters and he gets to hit at home which is extremely favorable to hitters as it is ranked as the 3rd best hitters park tonight behind only Arlington and Coors. VanMeter also has an ISO of .250 (which is at the elite level) against right-handed pitchers this year. He’s going to be my favorite one-off value play even if he carries some ownership, as he is white-hot right now and his underlying data tells us that it shouldn’t be slowing down.
Update: VanMeter is not in the lineup, which is very frustrating because he is the Reds hottest hitter right now facing a bad righty. A good pivot off of him is Mitch Garver, who has an ISO of .500 over the last two weeks with a 50% hard contact rate and a .445wOBA. He’s batting third and Nelson Cruz has the night off.
Projected FD Ownership: 3.25% Projected DK Ownership: 2.47%
Carson Kelly (FD-$2,700 DK-$4,100) –
Carson Kelly is another great value one-off play as he is trending in all the right directions:
His ISO over his last 7 is an insane .636 and it’s up 20% over the last 14. His hard contact is also way up, as he’s been making hard contact at an insane 74% rate over the last two weeks, which is up 28%. His wOBA is also up 9% to .416 over the last 14 days. Over his last 7 games, he only hitting .263 with only 5 hits during that same time frame. He also gets a phenomenal matchup against the disappointment that has been J.A. Happ on the Yankees. Happ is allowing insane power to right-handed batters, as 17 of the 23 home runs he’s allowed has been to righties. Kelly also gets the park upgrade playing in the band box that is Yankee Stadium. Kelly is also a lefty-killer as he has an unbelievable ISO of .418 against LHPs so far this year. He’s an extreme value on FanDuel, and still a bit underpriced on DraftKings. All of his underlying data shows that he is due for a big game in the near future.
Projected FD Ownership: 1.73% Projected DK Ownership: 1.35%
Jose Ramirez (FD-$3,700 DK-$4,300) –
Ramirez is another guy that has had some success over his last 7 games, but he’s been due for some positive regression since the All-Star break as he had a horrible first half of the season. Let’s take a look at how he’s trending in the Research Station:
His price hasn’t caught up on either site either, as he should easily be over 4K on FanDuel and over 5K on DraftKings. Over the last two weeks his ISO is up 20% and his Hard Contact is on the rise at 17% as he’s making hard contact at a 54% rate which is way up his season average of 37%. His wOBA is also up to .474 and is up 11% over the last two weeks. Over his last 7 games he’s hitting .400 with 4 home runs which are great numbers, and his underlying data shows that he’s not going to be slowing down. The big thing that stands out here is that no one will be on Ramirez because he’s facing Justin Verlander. What most people don’t realize is that Verlander has allowed 28 home runs this year which is the most in the MLB, (and makes this one hell of a gpp/contrarian play) followed only by Mike Leake. He gets the advantage of playing at home as well, where his batting average is 60 points higher this year compared to being on the road. Ramirez is in store for a big second half of the year, and the matchup is in his favor tonight.
Projected FD Ownership: 1.6% Projected DK Ownership: 1.76%
UPDATES TO FOLLOW – I’ll be making updates to this article as well, showing the ownership projections once they become available to us! Keep an eye out for the ownership updates as they will be in BOLD!
Make sure to hit the Coaches Forums as well, as I’ll post some notes in there as well. Have a +EV day, Army!
