DFS Golf: Chalk Donkey – The Open Championship – DFS Army

Key Stats this Week:

In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Open Championship.

One thing to note, with almost half of the field playing mostly on the European tour, we don’t have as much data on them as we would like. We get strokes gained stats now (which we used to not be able to get) but we don’t get hole by hole data, so projected course score samples for a lot of the guys will be small and maybe not a true indicator of what they can do. The Open Championship is more of a ‘feel’ event than any other major.

Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and former DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?

Value Tab: 

The first thing I look at every week when I open up the  RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.

Henrik Stenson leads the way here, but Webb Simpson isn’t too far behind, and it’s likely that both of them are very popular this week. Stenson is arguably the best links player of this generation and Webb has some sneaky good links form himself, making four straight cuts at this event.

Hideki Matsuyama’s history at this event is a bit of a mixed bag, but I think that is more to do with the rotation of courses than anything. His ball striking is superb and his short game around the greens will be a huge asset here. He’s an excellent play.

Not many golfers are coming in as hot as Rafael Cabrera Bello and he makes an excellent play at that price, but when it comes to Open history, there’s not many as consistent as Adam Scott who has made 9 straight cuts here with his lowest finish being 43rd. And he was playing some pretty poor golf during that stretch. He’s crushing it at the majors this year and while I’m a bit concerned he hasn’t played since the US Open, he’s been at the course all week playing with local member Darren Clarke. 

Speaking of excellent major players, Patrick Cantlay is right up there and he finished 12th in his debut here last year. He’s one of the best scramblers on tour and should go well here.

Projected DK Score:

Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score) is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.

DJ and Brooks at the top of this list?! No way! Not surprising at all as both just crush it from a statistical standpoint. Interestingly though, both actually may be under-owned this week. I have some real concerns about DJ’s ability to club down and still find fairways. If he hits driver he is 100% in trouble this week. He’s found ways to get it done around links courses in the past, but his recent form is pretty poor off the tee and the approach game leaves something to be desired. Brooks, on the other hand, is more of a ‘What are you going to get?’ it’s a major so he should show up but his press conferences this week haven’t given me a ton of confidence.

Coming off a really poor stretch over the last couple of months in the US, Justin Thomas popped last week at the Scottish Open with a 9th place finish. He rates out well here but his Open Championship history isn’t great.

Rory McIlroy has the course record here, albeit at a bit of a different course than he’ll play this week. There’s some pressure on him being he’s a Northern Ireland native, but I think if anyone can handle it, it’s him. He’s been fantastic this year and I think he will continue that this week. Of the guys priced at the top, he’s my favorite at this point.

Doc Redman showing up here is interesting, but he has no links history to speak of. Tony Finau is also intriguing, especially at his price. He’ll be virtually unowned and I think playing a ‘club down’ course like Portrush will really benefit him. He’s made the cut in all three Open Championship appearances with his worst finish being 27th. He’s been on a bit of a poor run but finally popped at the 3M a few weeks ago.

SG: Approach L25

As we’ve talked about with the green complexes here, you need to have some great iron play to be successful here.

Patrick Cantlay not surprisingly leads the way here as he’s been playing some just fantastic golf, but the guy right below him is. Kyle Stanley has been crushing it with his irons and just can’t putt. Like at all. Which means I obviously like him as that’s my brand. He’s accurate off the tee and has made the cut in 3 of 5 tries here. Have some concerns about his ability to get up and down when he misses greens, but if he strikes it like this there are no real worries.

Matt Kuchar is a cash core play for me this week and I think makes an excellent GPP play as well. He’s a guy I’ve bet already to win at 40-1 and think the upside is absolutely there.

I’ll be avoiding Gary Woodland’s mediocre links form and likely taking some stabs at Sergio Garcia here at a really depressed price. He’s crushed the Open over his career and while his recent form is a bit meh, I can’t deny that, as well as his strong iron play.

Tiger Woods is interesting, he’s obviously Tiger and can win here, but he said himself that he’s not real happy with his game right now. That being said, we get some wind and he pulls out that little stinger, he could be right in the mix on Sunday.

If we look at the European Tour stats:

Sergio shows up again, but he hasn’t been playing on the euro tour much in the last few months. Tyrell Hatton is another great links player and if he puts it together he can be in contention this week.

Benjamin Hebert popped last week and will likely be somewhat popular. Joost Luiten is interesting as well but his recent form has been really poor.

SG: Around the Green L25

Being able to get it up and down around these greens when you miss or hit a good shot and just land it in an area that runs off the green will be huge. We don’t track scrambling, but we do have strokes gained around the green in our research station.

Adam Scott is a core play for me this week, regardless of ownership. He’s in a great spot here.

Sungjae Im is a guy I’ve been on for weeks and while the strength of this field is much better than he’s competing in, I think this course sets up pretty well for him. Sungjae grew up on Jehu Island in South Korea, home of the Nine Bridges course which is the host of the CJ Cup, one of the windiest events on tour so he should be used to playing it in conditions that we are likely to see.

Louis Oosthuizen ALWAYS goes under-owned at majors and I love him here this week. And another interesting play is Byeong Hun An who has a bit of a mixed history here and can really flight the ball down when he wants to. Being able to club down should benefit him and at this price, I think he provides the perfect sort of upside play for gpp.

Justin Harding leads the way here and we saw him lead the way in SG: Around the Green at the Masters’ where he put on a clinic. Rafa Cabrera Bello is one of the best around the green, particularly with the putter off the green, there’s no one better.

Mike Lorenzo-Vera not only will have the best mustache at the Open Championship but he’s also got one of the best short games in the field, chipping and putting. He can get super hot with the putter and go low. If this happens to turn into a birdie fest, I think MLV can be in the mix.

A couple of these players show up on both lists, Louie Oosthuizen and Matt Wallace and both make great plays though I think Wallace is a little overpriced.

Other key stats to consider: Fantasy Points Gained, Double Bogey Avoidance,  SG: Long Par 5, SG: Par 4, SG: Long Par 3. 

One thing, that puts us at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. If you aren’t using it to build lineups you’re crazy! Check out how it works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial

First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’.  Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)

Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.

 9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.

8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.

Below 7.5K: >10%  Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.

One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them. 

Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?

In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.

It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.

In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.

And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:

Above 9K Chalk

Rory McIlroy: DK $11,600/FD $12,00

Projected GPP ownership: 20%-23%

Rory is projecting as the likely highest owned player in this range, and the fact that we keep getting bombarded by the fact that he shot 61 here at 16 years old is only going to continue to increase his ownership in contests like the Milly Maker where we get more of the general public entering lineups.

While we do project him to be the highest owned up here, it’s possible that he comes in a little under these projections. Typically in these large field gpp’s at majors, the highest priced golfer doesn’t necessarily come in as high as projected because players get scared off the price. It wouldn’t surprise me if Rory came in around 15ish percent.

Here’s the deal. He’s a great play this week. He’s finished in the top 5 in four straight Open Championships. He’s got four top 10’s in his last five starts. Don’t overthink it. Play Rory this week. How much Rory though? I think personally I’m going to shoot for 30ish percent. If he goes a little below the projections I’ll get him at 2x the field. If not I’m still around 1.5x which I’m fine with. He likely needs another top 5 here to hit value, but given his history not only at this event but at this course, I don’t think that’s a big stretch.

Above 9K Pivot: 

Francesco Molinari: DK $9,400/FD $11,400

Projected GPP Ownership: 6% -9%

Moli will attempt to defend his title at Royal Portrush this year at quite possibly the lowest ownership in this range.

He’s been a bit up and down with his finishes this year, but he’s been excellent at the majors’ finishing 5th at the Masters, 16th at the US Open, and 48th at the PGA Championship and he now comes to a course that is going to require players to be accurate off the tee, good at approaches, and be able to scramble around the greens, three things that Franky really excels at.

The name of the game in a major like this is to fade the chalk, so if I can get a player that fits the mold I’m looking at, at low ownership, I’m going to be pushing my chips in. It should be noted that he’s a much better play on DK than FD, though he will be even lower owned on FD.

Other highly owned players (over 15%): Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay 

7.5K – 9K Chalk

Henrik Stenson: DK $8400/FD $10,100

Matt Kuchar: DK $8700/FD $10,000

Adam Scott: DK $8800/FD $10,500

Hideki Matsuyama: DK $8300/FD $10,300

Projected GPP Ownership: 

Stenson: 25%-28%

Kuchar: 20%-23%

Scott: 16%-19%

Matsuyama: 16%-19%

This range and these players specifically are going to get hammered in ownership this week. The nice thing is that they will likely vulture a little of each others ownership, but I can see these four being played in a TON of lineups together.

Playing them together is fine in cash, in fact, that’s exactly how I would start my cash lineup (though many others likely are going to as well) but what do we do in GPP?

I’m not going to try to make a case for any of them, the reality is that all four are GREAT plays this week and guys I’ll have exposure to. If you want to fade all four you would have huge leverage on the field if they bomb out, that being said it’s not that likely.

If I had to rank them I would go:

1. Adam Scott
2. Hideki Matsuyama
3. Henrik Stenson
4. Matt Kuchar

That ranking is likely how my exposure will end up as well. What my lineups look like right now have me pairing Scott/Matsuyama in lineups and then playing Stenson and Kuchar as one-offs in other lineups. I’ll likely be about field average on Stenson/Kuchar (maybe less on Kuchar because I hedged with an outright bet) and at minimum double the field on Scott/Matsuyama.

It’s tough when you have a group like this that’s going to garner tons of ownership and they are all good plays. If you told me you were going to double the field on Stenson/Kuchar and just be field average on Scott/Deki I wouldn’t argue with you either, but I think it’s important that you try to leverage some sort of ownership here.

7.5K – 9K Pivot:

Louis Oosthuizen DK $8000/FD $10,200

Projected GPP Ownership: 2%-5%

People are scared to death of Louis Oosthuizen. He’s continually under-owned, particularly at majors. Over the last 16 majors, he has an average DK ownership of 8%. In that same time, he’s 14/16 in cuts made, has two runner ups, and has only finished outside of T30 (not counting the cuts) once. Pretty impressive.

There is always the threat that Louis will WD but he hasn’t withdrawn from a major since 2013, and that was when he was hurt and those WD’s were known well ahead of time. I think his ability to scramble will serve him well here and the guy just shows up and plays well at majors. The consistency at only $8000 and this sort of ownership is something I can’t pass up.

Other highly owned players (over 12%): Webb Simpson, Marc Leishman, Rafa Cabrera Bello 

Below 7.5K

As usual, we don’t have much chalk below 7.5k even with the soft pricing of a major. The ownership appears to be pretty spread out with most players around 3%-5% owned. The two players who have received some buzz this week down here are Patrick Reed and Tyrell Hatton. Reed’s game is starting to return to form, and this price likely doesn’t fit with the sort of golf he’s been playing and the pedigree he has. Hatton is renowned as an excellent links player, but he has struggled at the Open Championship over the years. Let’s look at some lesser-known golfers in this range that are sneaky GPP plays.

Thorbjorn Olesen: DK $7300/FD $8900

Should probably preface this stating that I have a small man crush on Thunderbear, but man he’s a great golfer. We were on him at the Masters when he finished 21st at low ownership, leading the field in GIR. He struggled a bit after that but has recently had some pretty impressive form, finishing 15th two weeks ago at the Irish Open (a similar links track) and 10th at the BMW International in Germany. He’s an excellent driver of the golf ball, and an even better iron player. He’s also a sneaky good links player having won and finished runner up at the Alfred Dunhill Links and finished 6th and 14th at the Irish Open. He also has a connection with the Qatar Masters having finished second and third year in his career. The list of players who have won in Qatar and a Claret Jug includes Henrik Stenson, Ernie Els, and Adam Scott.

Mike Lorenzo-Vera: DK $7000/FD $8300

MLV has been on a pretty impressive run of form recently with four straight top 30 finishes, including a 28th and 9th the last two weeks on links courses for the Scottish and Irish Open. MLV has an excellent short game and these links courses tend to benefit him as he’s not the worlds longest off the tee (though very accurate). I like him a bit more in a birdie fest because he’s a great scorer, especially when the putter heats up but I love him at low ownership this week.

Romain Langasque: DK $6600/FD $7000

A really exciting young player on the European Tour who is going to be good for a long time. That being said, he’s Ricky Bobby. Here are his recent finishes: 3rd, 75th, 103rd, 3rd, 119th, 5th, 38th. If you ain’t first your last! Not extremely accurate off the tee which is a bit concerning but I think he can find his way around this course, and his short game, particularly his putting is excellent. Could be this tournaments Jazz Jannewattenond, someone no one is talking about that pops on the leaderboard.

GPP Core:

Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page!

Final Thoughts: 

This is one of my favorite weeks of the year, wake up, grab a cup of coffee and catch the last half of the first wave over breakfast! Be sure to check into the coaching channels Wednesday night for the final weather update.

Remember, this is the last major of the year so while we preach contest selection and bankroll management, don’t be afraid to go a little crazy!

Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!