Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here are the carnage reports for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version for the late slate should be ready by around 4:00 pm central time. The main slate is in its final form now.
A look at pitchers
Robbie Ray and Trevor Bauer look to be the top cash options today with their solid matchups and high KSCOREs/VKSCOREs. They also carry the lowest implied totals on the board. It’s a bit of a coin flip to me, but if you want to save a few bucks and avoid the whole “divisional opponent familiarity” that Bauer has going for him, you could just go with Ray here instead. Of course, whichever one you don’t take in cash, be sure to have them in GPP because they both have elite ceilings.
Speaking of GPP pitchers, we also have Strasburg and Buehler as other options with elite ceilings, so don’t forget about them.
Gausman, Archer, and Nola have the highest remaining KSCOREs and offer some upside in their matchups, so they are in play in GPP as well. Gibson has the best carnage rating on the day and when the White Sox have a bad game, they have a really bad game, so he makes an interesting mid-range option.
Don’t forget about Miley and Vargas, they know how to pitch a troll game and can be sprinkled around along with your core pitchers in GPP.
Offenses to target
Houston and Cincinnati get the best carnage ratings on the board today, so they’re certainly in play.
Minnesota gets a righty that has been pretty bad to lefties…which is exactly the time to attack. Yes, the carnage rating here looks good, but that’s mostly due to the Twins being a little quiet lately. This is absolutely a blow-up spot for them, so don’t forget about them here today.
Cleveland, especially Lindor, tends to enjoy putting a beat down on my Royals whenever they come to town, so they’re worth some stacks too.
Aside from them, be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where they’re looking for stacks!
Main slate
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll kick things off with the Braves and Phillies today. The Braves have been on fire but have to face Nola today. My take? They won’t carry much ownership and they do know Nola pretty well…so I’m a fan of some contrarian stacks here.
The Phillies have the implied run total advantage, and though he was looking good earlier this season, Gausman has started to slip. I don’t mind stacks here, and would even consider a few game stacks.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Freeman (BvP), Donaldson (BvP)
GPP note – Tough matchup but they know Nola well. Contrarian stacks are in play
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Hoskins, Hernandez (BvP), Segura
GPP note – Gausman is looking like the gascan of old and the Phillies will be fired up after getting blown out yesterday. Stack away!
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
The Rays get Sanchez, who has gone the way of Gausman lately, so any sort of exposure to their offense is in order…anything from one-offs to full-blown stacks. Lefty or righty? It doesn’t really matter.
The Blue Jays will face Chirinos who has been very solid in 2019. You can go contrarian here but I’m not in love with the move today.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, Meadows, d’Arnaud, Choi, Lowe
GPP note – Those five are the main targets, but honestly, pretty much everybody is in play here. Do some wrap-around stacks if you want to get creative (if you’re worried about chalk)
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Gurriel, Guerrero, Sogard
GPP note – I’m not in love with this offense today. If you want exposure, consider a one-off since Chirinos does allow a home run here and there, but has been good this year at holding down offenses as a whole
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds
Alex Wood makes his 2019 debut against the Rockies at mini-Coors today. We know he’s talented, but we have no idea where he’s at right now, so play him or the Rockies at your own risk.
The Reds get Lambert and the best carnage rating on the board today, as well as a very high implied run total, so you can look to them as an option in all formats.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Arenado/Desmond (BvP), Story
GPP note – Arenado and Desmond have BvP against Wood, but otherwise, this is a pretty questionable matchup on both sides
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Senzel, Puig, VanMeter
GPP note – Everybody is in a decent spot here, especially the lefties. They won’t be sneaky though
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets
We get two interesting pitching options in this one. Archer has looked good and gets the Mets on a Sunday (which for whatever reason has been a terrible day for them), and Vargas is good for the random troll game. I do give the nod to Archer, but Vargas is worth sprinkling around too.
As for the offenses, I’m not in love with either one of them, but I’d give the nod to the Pirates here if I had to choose one.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Cabrera (BvP), Newman, Reynolds, Osuna
GPP note – Vargas can be really good or really bad, so stack accordingly (favor the righties when you do stack)
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto, McNeil, Cano, Alonso
GPP note – I’m calling for a dud here, so I only recommend one-offs or mini-stacks
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins
We get one of our cash pitchers here, Ray, which also means we get an offense I’m not too excited about in the Marlins. The Diamondbacks are in a much better spot that their low implied total would lead one to believe, so if you want a lower-owned stack today, they could be the ticket!
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Marte, Dyson, Peralta (BvP)
GPP note – This offense deserves a higher implied total, but that might just keep people off of them. Stack away!
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Only go here if you want to go contrarian. Otherwise, look somewhere else
Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals
We get a potential pitcher’s duel here with Buehler and Strasburg, so be sure to have them in your GPP pool today as they have elite ceilings. This, of course, puts both offenses at a disadvantage, so you don’t really need to go here in cash games. They’re fair play in GPP though, as every pitcher is bound to have a bad game once in a while. I just can’t point to one and say “yep, lock and load with these guys!”
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Bellinger, Turner/Pollock (BvP)
GPP note – Turner and Pollock are the most interesting choices here, as they have a homer against Strasburg (Turner has two)
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Soto, Parra (BvP)
GPP note – Parra has some BvP against Buehler (3 for 15 but with one homer), so he’s an interesting one-off. Otherwise, I don’t love much here
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
We get a potential shootout here, as both pitchers have shown some struggles and both offenses have plenty of weapons that can do some damage against them. There are a handful of nice BvP targets as well (noted below), so I expect to see some fireworks in this one.
Cubs 5 star plays – Bryant (BvP), Rizzo
Cubs 4 star plays – Schwarber (BvP), Baez, Heyward
GPP note – Davies has struggled, and this offense is good at blowing up bad pitching
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Cain/Braun/Moustakas (BvP), Grandal, Aguilar
GPP note – Yelich is always in play, but if you go here favor the righties (the first three above have some BvP against Quintana). I recommend having some stacks as Quintana has shown plenty of struggles this season
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Another offense in a great spot, the Twins will look to end their cold streak against Covey, who as I noted earlier in the article, is in a prime spot to allow this offense to go off. They should be chalky with that high of an implied total, but people might be tired of them putting up duds in good spots.
Twins 5 star plays – Cruz
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario
GPP note – Pretty much everybody is in play here, but especially Cruz and the lefties
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu (BvP), Moncada
GPP note – Gibson has been decent and this offense has been cold, so stack at your own risk. I prefer one-offs or mini-stacks
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
We get our other big-name cash pitcher here with Bauer, who will face Duffy and my Royals today. As usual, the Indians are easily in play here, as they just love beating up on my guys when they come to town…especially Lindor, who you should be playing pretty much every single time he comes to Kansas City!
Indians 5 star plays – Lindor
Indians 4 star plays – Santana (BvP), Ramirez, Kipnis, Mercado
GPP note – They love putting up runs at the K and know Duffy very well. As a Royals fan, sigh….stack away!
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Gordon (some BvP), Merrifield, Dozier/Soler (for one-off power)
GPP note – This is a tough spot for my guys and I expect more strikeouts than hits
Houston Astros at St Louis Cardinals
Our final game on the main slate features two capable pitchers, though one of them is in a much harder matchup (I’ll let you guess which one that is….). His one saving grace is that the Astros have never faced him before, so that might help keep them from going bonkers here today. As for the Cardinals, I don’t see them having much luck against 2019, outside of maybe Goldy and DeJong (who I don’t mind for one-offs or as a mini-stack in GPP). For cash games, I don’t love a whole lot from this one.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Springer, Altuve, Brantley
GPP note – They’ve never faced Hudson before, which could put a limit on their ceiling if they can’t figure him out quickly. Still, this roster is packed with talent, so I won’t argue against stacking them
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt (hot!), DeJong
GPP note – Miley has been good this season and could shut down this offense for the most part, but Goldy is still worth a look for a one-off
Late slate(s)
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
Moving on to the later games, we’ll kick off this slate with the Rangers and Athletics. Fiers, like Miley, has looked pretty good in 2019, and we’ll see a fresh Payano on the other side of the game. Honestly, both of these offenses are practically the same…they tend to either strike out a ton and lay a massive dud, or they go bonkers and put up 10+ runs. Basically, if you want to stack either team, go heavy on them as they tend to feed off of one another, and when they dud, they tend to dud as a unit.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Andrus (BvP), Choo, Pence
GPP note – Go big or go somewhere else
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson, Davis, Semien, Chapman, Canha
GPP note – Go big or go somewhere else
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
As we’ve seen, both of these teams get great matchups against bad pitching, so feel free to stack away here again…and again and again. That said, Bundy is good for the random troll game, so you could take some shots with him too.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Santander, Smith Jr
GPP note – Feel free to go right back to them, as they tend to feast on weak pitching (and I don’t see that changing much today)
Angels 5 star plays – Trout (BvP)
Angels 4 star plays – Pujols (BvP, if he plays), Ohtani, Upton, Calhoun
GPP note – Same as above. Look for some offensive production from both sides today
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
We get the classic story of the veteran vs the rookie here, as Bumgarner and the Giants will take on Morejon and the Padres. Bumgarner has been good, but the Padres do have some experience against him (as well as some dangerous righties), so I could see either side playing out. With that in mind, I like the idea of hedging some lineups and getting exposure to both sides.
As for the Giants, well, it’s really tough to say. They’re facing a newer pitcher who will be looking to make a name for himself in his second start (his first was against the Cubs, so this is a much easier matchup). He did well against them, so I suspect he could hold down the Giants here, but there’s no telling how long he’ll pitch for. It’s hard to recommend favoring one side or the other, especially since we don’t know how long Morejon will pitch, so I’m a little reluctant to recommend either side. I think I’d prefer to look at other offenses/pitchers.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Posey, Pillar
GPP note – They get a fresh pitcher so it’s hard to know what to expect. I think I’d prefer one-offs or mini-stacks though
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Renfroe (BvP), Tatis
GPP note – Bumgarner has been good, but if you attack here, favor the righties
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Next up is a game with another low implied total, where Boyd and the Tigers will face Milone and the Mariners. Boyd can be looked at as the “ace” of this small slate and would be my option for cash games. Milone has been pretty decent too and gets to face a fairly weak offense, so I could easily see this one playing to the under. Needless to say, I don’t love either offense here, and would look at one-offs or mini-stacks as the best options.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Castellanos, Cabrera, Goodrum
GPP note – I don’t love much here, but if you want to stack, go with the righties
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Santana, Beckham
GPP note – There’s hardly anything to love here, but you could sprinkle around some righties if you really want
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
And finally, our hammer/showdown game features a rematch of the Yankees and Red Sox. As we’ve seen, the Red Sox have made it a point to put a hurting on the Yankees here, and I expect that to continue today. I also expect Chris Sale to come out pissed off and going for as many strikeouts as humanly possible. That said, there is some BvP here, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to hedge some lineups on both sides just in case.
As always, check the coach’s notes page for the showdown slate, as this is just a first look and things can change when the lineups come out!
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Encarnacion (BvP), Judge
GPP note – I expect there to be a lot of strikeouts here, but there could also be a random homer from Encarnacion or Judge (or any other power righty, but it’s harder to pinpoint one after those two)
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi
GPP note – German has been good, but the Red Sox love to go bananas against the Yankees, so he’ll have his work cut out for him
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!