Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Steve aka @mutt18 on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
First Things First – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start by looking at the Research Station and find my main targets based on which teams on the slate have the lowest ISO and wOBA’s against that pitcher’s handedness. From there I then go to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. After my initial research, I’d rank my top 3 as of now at:
- Jacob deGrom – deGrom has had 3 QS’s in a row and gets a middle of the road Phillies offense at home. I expect him to continue his string of QS’s here, and I can see him going for 10+ K’s here. He’s my favorite higher priced option on this slate.
- Clayton Kershaw – The Padres K at a 25.9% rate to LHP’s, and while I don’t think he goes unscathed here, he should be in line for a W and QS because he is pitching at home.
- Zack Greinke – The Rockies will be dealing with the Coors hangover, and their numbers away from home are pretty pathetic. They K at a 26% rate to RHP’s on the road and Greinke is a bit underpriced here.
After I get finished looking at pitching, I move on to my hitters. I look for which teams have the highest ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. ISO stands for Isolated Power and it is defined as:
ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account. For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200.
Where do we get most of our fantasy points in DFS baseball? Home runs, and if a player has a high ISO it usually correlates very well with extra-base hits and home runs. So the higher a player’s ISO is, the more likely they are to produce hitting for extra bases and home runs, which in turn = more fantasy points! An average ISO is right around .140 and an elite ISO is anything above .250. Teams with the highest ISO’s on the slate tend to score more runs and are in turn more stackable. For more info on how to use ISO to your advantage, check out dabbingpuggle’s Tournament Strategy Guide here!
Full Count Breakdown:
Kansas City Royals @ Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers: Brad Keller vs. Austin Voth
We’ve got an interesting pitching matchup here, as both Keller and Voth have had their ups and downs. Keller has not been sharp over his past three starts, as he’s allowed 13 ER’s in 12 IP’s with 4 HR’s allowed. I’ll be loading up on some Nationals bats here as he gets the park downgrade being away from Kansas City. I’d load up on some Nationals lefties here, as he allows a .326wOBA to LHB’s and I’d throw Rendon in there as well. For Voth, he shut down Atlanta, then got touched up by the Tigers…makes complete sense I know. In a limited sample size he is actually a bit worse against RHB’s as he is allowed a .331wOBA against them and they are hitting for more power off of him (.522 SLG%). I wouldn’t go overboard with Royals bats as they have been pretty pedestrian this year, but a few righty one offs could do the trick at low ownership.
KCR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Royals strikeout at a 22.8% clip to RHP’s.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Matt Adams
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: The Nationals strikeout at a 22.7% rate to RHP’s.
Stackability:
Kansas City Royals – 3 Stars
Washington Nationals – 4.5 Stars
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Zach Davies vs. Steven Brault
Davies is another guy who’s been struggling over his last few starts. He’s had 4 starts in a row where he hasn’t made it to the 6th inning and has given up 4 home runs along the way. He really struggles against lefties, as he’s allowing them to have a .361wOBA against him and are slugging .500. The Pirates lefty bats are in a really good spot here “cough..Josh Bell..” cough”. Brault isn’t really in my pitchers pool either, as he really gets deep enough into games to get us a QS on FanDuel, and he doesn’t strikeout hitters all that much either (most K’s in a game was 6). Attack him with the Brewer’s righties, as he’s allowing a .364wOBA against them. The Brewers also hit LHP’s well above average (.206 ISO against LHP’s) and they’ll be lower owned because a lot of people don’t know that. They should have some value bats here as well.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Brewers have a team ISO of .206 against LHP’s on the year, which ranks 7th in the MLB and K at a 22.9% rate.
PITT 5-star plays: Josh Bell (.355 ISO against RHP’s)
4-star plays: Colin Moran, Melky Cabrera, Adam Frazier, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Pirates only K at a 19.3% rate to RHP’s this year.
Stackability:
Milwaukee Brewers – 4 Stars
Pittsburgh Pirates – 4 Stars
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Dylan Bundy vs. Aaron Sanchez
Oh boy… this slate is looking really good for hitter’s here, as we get the very HR prone Dylan Bundy (already given up 19 this year) versus a Blue Jays team who just lit up Chris Sale two days ago. The Blue Jays offense has really come alive as they have a team ISO of .215 against RHP’s since June 1st. Bundy has also been worse against right handed batters this year, as 12 of his 19 HR’s allowed have been to righties. Gurriel and Vladdy Jr. come to mind right away here. Aaron Sanchez has also been struggling all year long, he’s been getting blasted from both sides of the plate (.346 wOBA to LHB’s and .383 wOBA to RHB’s). However, he does get a positive matchup here, as the Orioles are middle of the pack against RHP’s (ranked 18th in team ISO at .198). However, I’d stack both sides and I’d even take a few shots at Bundy here, because when he is on he is quite good and he’ll be low-owned.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Renato Nunez, Chance Sisco, Dylan Bundy (GPP only as a leverage play)
TOR 5-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Justin Smoak
4-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rowdy Tellez, Eric Sogard
Stackability:
Baltimore Orioles: 3 Stars
Toronto Blue Jays: 4 Stars
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Gregory Soto
This one should be pretty ugly here, as Soto is really really really bad against right handed hitters. Righties have a .425 wOBA against him, and all 5 of the HR’s he’s given up have been to right handed hitters. The Red Sox righties should feast in this one. The Red Sox as a whole have been pretty disappointing this year, but I think this matchup is just what they need to get going right before the All-Star break. I do have some interest in E-Rod on the other side here, as the Tigers have been pretty bad against LHP’s (.152 team ISO with a 26.4% K rate). E-Rod can rack up the K’s in a hurry, and as long as he avoid Castellanos and Miggy, he should cruise in this one.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley Jr., Eduardo Rodriguez
GPP Note: Soto cannot get righties out, and he’ll see plenty of good ones today.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos (.208 ISO against LHPs), Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: I won’t be stacking Tigers, but Casty and Miggy make for some decent one-offs as they both hit lefties well.
Stackability:
Boston Red Sox – 4 Stars
Detroit Tigers – 2.5 Stars
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers: Masahiro Tanaka vs. Brendan McKay
Tanaka has one underlying statistic that really is due for some regression here, as he’s been pretty good at limiting damage all year long. His hard contact rate is 40.3% which is over 6% higher than his career average. The Rays bats also have some lefties that have some serious pop and he’s struggled against LHB’s (.344 wOBA and 8 HR’s allowed) and Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe both have ISO’s over .200 against RHP’s on the year. However, he does have really good numbers against the Rays, so he is playable in this one, but I’m not happy about it. Brendan McKay is in a tough spot here, as the Yankees lineup is scary as hell against a LHP. While McKay is an elite pitching prospect, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Edwin Encarnacion, and D.J. LeMahieu are all elite at hitting LHPs. All have ISO’s over .170 against lefties, and E5 and Sanchezs’ are both over .300. I don’t see him going unscathed here, plus with him being on a pitch count, it lowers his ceiling even more as the pricing algorithm’s have caught up a bit.
NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Edwin Encarnacion
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, D.J. LeMahieu, Masahiro Tanaka
GPP Note: Yankees do strikeout at a 25.1% rate to LHP’s on the year, which is one of the highest on the slate.
TAM 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: The Rays K at a 23.5% rate to RHP’s.
Stackability:
New York Yankees – 4.5 Stars
Tampa Bay Rays – 3.5 Stars
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Starting Pitchers: Vince Velasquez vs. Jacob deGrom
Finallyyyyy a pitcher that we can use. Jacob deGrom has been phenomenal over the last month, as he’s scored at least 40 FD points in 5 of his last 6 and he gets a pretty solid matchup here. The Phillies are in the bottom 3rd of the league in team ISO against RHP’s (.175) and K at a 23% rate which is above the league average. Despite the Bryce Harper signing, once you get around him and Rhys Hoskins there really isn’t too much that scares me here. If you’re feeling frisky you can stack the Phillies as they’ll be extremely low-owned. Just keep in mind that deGrom owns the Phillies as he is 7-1 with a 2.20 ERA against them and averages over a K per inning. I’ll have plenty of shares of deGrom. Velasquez is still hanging onto his starter spot as he pitched well his first start back in rotation and got lit up in his second. The problem is they were both against the Marlins who are one of, if not the worst, overall offensive team in the majors. Velasquez is also a reverse splits guy who is worse against RHB’s (.354 wOBA and 8 HR’s allowed) but he’s been bad against both sides of the plate. You can stack the Mets with some confidence here today.
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: I could see using one of these guys as a one-off, but I’m not going to be stacking against deGrom.
NYM 5-star plays: Jacob deGrom, Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano, Michael Conforto, Todd Frazier
GPP Note: The Mets are K’ing at a 22.7% clip to RHP’s on the year.
Stackability:
Philadelphia Phillies – 1 Star
New York Mets – 4 Stars
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers: Jordan Yamamoto vs. Julio Teheran
Yamamoto will be getting his 5th start since getting called up to the bigs, and while 3 of his starts were phenomenal, the regression we predicted hit in his last game against the Phillies. He now gets an even tougher matchup against the Braves, who currently are 8th in team ISO against RHP’s (.194) and get to face a rookie who is giving up a lot of hard contact (43.4%) and is due for some more regression. He’s actually been worse against righties, but I think you can stack a good amount of Braves here from both sides of the plate. Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, and Ronald Acuna all have ISO’s over .200 against RHP’s this year. I’m not a big fan of using Teheran at home, as he is better on the road, but the matchup is good against this sad Marlins offense. They have a team ISO of .120 which is dead last in the majors and K at a 25% rate to RHP’s. Teheran shut them down to the tune of 6 IP and 5 K’s in his last start against them, picking up a QS and W. He’s a solid GPP option. But if you are going to attack him, attack him with the Marlin’s lefty bats.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: The Marlins strikeout at a 25% clip to RHP’s on the year.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, Nick Markakis, Josh Donaldson, Julio Teheran
GPP Note: The Braves are striking out at a 22.3% rate to RHP’s this year.
Stackability:
Miami Marlins – 1.5 Stars
Atlanta Braves – 4 Stars
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers: Noe Ramirez vs. Justin Verlander
The Angels have been playing some inspired baseball after the tragic death of Tyler Skaggs and run into a tough matchup against an Astros team that is finally getting fully healthy. Verlander got touched up by the Mariners in his last start, but every great pitcher gets lit up from time to time. I’m expecting him and his 32% K percentage to bounce back here. The only downside here is that he obviously has to 1) Face Mike Trout who is white hot right now, and 2) The Angels don’t strikeout (lead the league in K % against RHP’s at 17.5%). This lowers his ceiling a bit, but I don’t think he’ll be too highly owned. The Angels will be using Noe Ramirez as an opener, but I expect them to go to Felix Pena shortly after. Pena has some decent stuff, but I expect him to struggle pretty bad here, as the Astros are finally almost fully healthy. He’s been really bad against lefties, allowing a .379wOBA to lefties, so I’m looking at Brantley and Reddick especially here, along with the usual Astros stars.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Andrew Heaney (GPP only)
GPP Note: Angels have the lowest K rate to RHP’s in the majors at 17.5%)
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Justin Verlander, Jose Altuve, George Springer
GPP Note: Astros only K at a 18% rate to RHP’s this year.
STACKABILITY:
Los Angeles Angels – 2 Stars
Houston Astros – 3.5 Stars
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Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitchers: Adrian Sampson vs. Martin Perez
Sampson has been very up and down this year, and I expect this to be a down spot for him, as he is actually worse against RHB’s this year. He’s allowing a .366wOBA and 11 of the 15 HR’s he’s given up have been to righties. Nelson Cruz and C.J. Cron stand out here, as well as the rest of the Twins offense. They’re one of my favorite stacks. Perez has been struggling, but the Rangers do K at an insanely high rate to LHP’s (28.9%!) and he’s been pretty tough on LHB’s. The Rangers righties don’t really scare me as much, outside of Willie Calhoun, and I think he can bounce back in this spot, especially with how cheap he is.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Elvis Andrus, Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: The Rangers strikeout at a 24.5% rate to RHP’s.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Martin Perez
GPP Note: Twins have the 2nd ranked offense in the MLB.
Stackability:
Texas Rangers – 2.5 Stars
Minnesota Twins – 4.5 Stars
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers: Antonio Senzatela vs. Zack Greinke
The Coors hangover is a real thing, and the Rockies are coming off a home stand where they scored a bunch of runs, but they’re running into Zack Greinke at home. He’s actually been better against lefties than righties this year, which takes a good amount of the Rockies bats out of play for me. Away from home against RHP’s the Rockies rank 27th in team ISO and K at a 26% rate. So this matchup sets up very well for Greinke to cruise through this Rockies lineup. Senzatela has been really bad against LHB’s this year to the tune of a .393 wOBA. He should struggle a bit in this one, as he’s been horrible at getting lefties out all year. Load up on those Diamondbacks lefties today!
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
GPP Note: The Coors hangover is real, and I expect it to hit the Rockies pretty hard in this game.
ARZ 5-star plays: Zack Greinke
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta, Ketel Marte, Jarrod Dyson
GPP Note: The Diamondbacks are K’ing at a 22.1% rate to RHP’s on the year.
Stackability:
Colorado Rockies – 2.5 Stars
Arizona Diamondbacks – 3.5 Stars
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers: Eric Lauer vs. Clayton Kershaw
Kershaw gets a solid matchup at home, and even though the Padres have been heating up over the past few weeks, the Padres have one of the highest K rates in the MLB against lefties at 25.9%. In his start earlier this year, Kershaw had a QS and W but was far from perfect as he gave up 3 ER’s. I can see one of the Padres righties get to him, and they can actually be used as a contrarian stack (they are also not expensive!). On the other side, Lauer has had his ups and downs, but gets the Dodgers who are pretty average against LHP’s on the year. The K upside isn’t really there, but he is a decent SP2 option as long as you aren’t pairing him with Kershaw. If you are going to stack them, use the righties, specifically Justin Turner as he is a lefty killer.
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe, Fernando Tatis Jr., Franmil Reyes, Eric Lauer (GPP only)
GPP Note: The Padres have one of the highest K rates in the MLB to LHP’s at 25.9%.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Clayton Kershaw, Kike Hernandez, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball, but are pretty pedestrian against LHP’s, but if you want to stack them, I’d use their righties.
Stackability:
San Diego Padres – 3 Stars
Los Angeles Dodgers – 2.5 Stars
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Brett Anderson vs. Yusei Kikuchi
Stack them A’s! Kikuchi has been terrible to both sides of the plate in his last few starts, but he’s been especially bad against righties. He’s allowing a .360wOBA and 14 of the 18 HR’s he’s given up have been to right handed hitters. The A’s are also second in the MLB in team ISO against LHP’s at .223 and only K at an 18% rate. The A’s are also a very right handed heavy lineup, so Kikuchi should be in some serious trouble here. On the other side, the Mariners have taken a hit against lefties since trading away E5. They K at a 25.4% rate to LHP’s and while Anderson hasn’t been sharp, he gets a solid matchup here and get the boost of pitching at home. He’s definitely a decent option on a slate that’s surprisingly thin on pitching.
OAK 5-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Ramon Laureano
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Brett Anderson
GPP Note: The A’s have a very right handed heavy lineup, and rank second in the MLB in team ISO against LHP’s.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mallex Smith, Domingo Santana
GPP Note: The Mariners offense vs. lefties has taken a hit without Edwin Encarnacion.
Stackability:
Oakland A’s – 5 Stars, my favorite stack tonight
Seattle Mariners – 2 Stars
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers: Daniel Hudson vs. Drew Pomeranz
I don’t expect a lot of runs to be scored in this game as we are in the friendly confines of Oracle which will help both pitchers greatly. Throw in the fact that both of these offenses are pretty bad and we’ve got a recipe for a low scoring game. Dakota Hudson had been cruising along pretty well before getting lit up by the Padres in his last start. I expect him to bounce back in this one, due to the park factor and the fact that the Giants have a .166 team ISO against RHP’s on the year, which is near the bottom of the league and they aren’t as good offensively at home. On the other side, Pomeranz has been pretty good when pitching at home, and he’s averaged at least 36 FD points in his last 4 starts at home. The Cardinals offense has also fallen off of a cliff since the beginning of June and they K at a 20.8% rate.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Dakota Hudson
GPP Note: Cardinals have been terrible offensively since Ozuna got hurt and get the park downgrade in San Fran. I’ll be using both pitchers from this game.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Drew Pomeranz
GPP Note: The Giants are one of the worst offenses in the league, especially at home.
Stackability:
St. Louis Cardinals – 2.5 Stars
San Francisco Giants – 2 Stars
Make sure to check out the Coaches Notes/Players Picks as they will have this game covered for you in all areas. The pricing is so much different from the main slate that it can be tough to breakdown from a DFS standpoint. With that said, at first glance, I would be attacking the Cardinals offense and hoping to jump on them while the field views them as terrible plays after they haven’t scored many runs over the past week or so.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches. Don’t forget to use promo code MUTT18 for 20% off!
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