Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Steve aka @mutt18 on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
First Things First – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start by looking at the Research Station and find my main targets based on which teams on the slate have the lowest ISO and wOBA’s against that pitcher’s handedness. From there I then go to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. After my initial research, I’d rank my top 3 as of now at:
- Jacob deGrom – deGrom is going to be my #1 option here tonight, as he’s been dominant over the last 2 months heading into the ASB, and he gets the lowly Marlins offense who have at team ISO of .118 and K at a 25% rate to RHPs on the year. He likely won’t be too chalky either given all of the pitching options on this slate.
- Jose Berrios – Berrios is usually better at home, but he gets the nod from me today pitching on the road, as I expect this game to be a pitcher’s duel between him and Bieber. He’s actually been really tough on LHB’s and the Indians lineup will be loaded with them today, and a lot of people won’t realize this is a better matchup once you dig into it.
- Justin Verlander- If Verlander can keep the ball in the park here (which he’s had trouble doing all year) the upside is there as the Rangers are one of the most strikeout happy teams in the league as they K at a 25.2% rate to RHPs. If Verlander can just limit the damage with the HRs in this one, there’s legit 10+ K upside which isn’t realistic for a lot of pitchers on this slate.
After I get finished looking at pitching, I move on to my hitters. I look for which teams have the highest ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. ISO stands for Isolated Power and it is defined as:
ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account. For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200.
Where do we get most of our fantasy points in DFS baseball? Home runs, and if a player has a high ISO it usually correlates very well with extra-base hits and home runs. So the higher a player’s ISO is, the more likely they are to produce hitting for extra bases and home runs, which in turn = more fantasy points! An average ISO is right around .140 and an elite ISO is anything above .250. Teams with the highest ISO’s on the slate tend to score more runs and are in turn more stackable. For more info on how to use ISO to your advantage, check out dabbingpuggle’s Tournament Strategy Guide here!
Full Count Breakdown:
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitchers: Anibal Sanchez vs. Jake Arrieta
Anibal Sanchez has been very up and down this year but the biggest thing that he struggles with is left handed batters. He’s allowing a .344wOBA to LHB’s and 8 of the 12 HR’s he’s allowed have been to lefties. However, he does have 7 straight starts where he’s had at least 24 FanDuel points so he hasn’t really been getting lit up. The Phillies haven’t exactly been lighting it up offensively either, as they have a team ISO of .174 and K at a 23% rate. Sanchez is definitely in play on FanDuel as a GPP dart, and as an SP2 on DK. On the other side, Arrieta has been pretty bad this year overall. He’s been worse against lefties as he’s allowing a .387wOBA to LHBs. However, he’s also allowing a wOBA over .300 to RHB’s as well. You can attack Arrieta from both sides of the plate and I like the Nationals as a stack today with how bad Arrieta has been.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto (.217 ISO vs. RHPs)
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Matt Adams, Anibal Sanchez
GPP Note: The Nationals K at a 22.5% rate to RHP’s
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, Jay Bruce
GPP Note: The Phillies K at a 23% rate to RHP’s on the year
Stackability:
Washington Nationals – 3.5 Stars
Philadelphia Phillies – 2.5 Stars
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Marcus Stroman vs. Masahiro Tanaka
I think that this game will be lower scoring than people think, as both of these pitchers have been playing pretty well and Stroman is pretty tough on RHB’s, which is where most of the damage comes from with these Yankees. He is vulnerable to LHBs though, as he’s allowing a .328wOBA to them, so some of the Yankees lefties are in play here. However, the Yankees do have a .212 ISO against RHPs on the year so something will give here. I’m not too scared of the Yankees lefties in this one, so I’m going to side with Stroman. Tanaka is still giving up a lot of hard contact (40.6%), but he has a decent matchup in this one as the Jays do K at a 24.6% rate which is one of the highest in the league. I think he gives up a solo HR or two here, but he should definitely be in line for a QS in this one.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Eric Sogard, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Marcus Stroman
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Masahiro Tanaka
Stackability:
Toronto Blue Jays: 2.5 Stars
New York Yankees: 3 Stars
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Ryne Stanek vs. Undecided
The Rays will likely go with one of their bullpen days here, we don’t have an opener just yet but either way the Orioles as a whole have been pretty bad offensively this year. They have a team ISO of .163 against RHPs and an ISO of .156 against LHPs. I’ll likely be avoiding the Orioles bats here, and likely this game all together with the big slate we have. Cashner has been pretty good at limiting damage this year, but he is a reverse splits guy as he is allowing a .342wOBA to RHBs and has been pretty tough on LHBs. Also, 10 of the 11 HR’s he’s allowed have been to RHB’s as well. I’m likely not stacking either team in this game, but I’ll take a shot at a few Rays RHBs as one-offs.
UPDATE: Andrew Cashner has been traded to the Boston Red Sox. The Orioles have not named a starter yet, but my gut feeling is that they will go with a bullpen day here. If that is the case then the Rays bats just got a lot more interesting.
TAM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Yandy Diaz
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
Stackability:
Tampa Bay Rays – 2 Stars
Baltimore Orioles – 1.5 Stars
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians
Starting Pitchers: Jose Berrios vs. Shane Bieber
We’ve got what should be a pitcher’s duel on our hands, but both of these teams have really good offenses so it could go either way. Berrios has been tough on both sides of the plate, but his ERA is over a full point higher on the road, so he is a bit more susceptible to these Indians bats. He’s actually been a bit worse to RHBs as 9 of the 15 HRs he’s allowed have been to righties. Bieber has been good to both sides of the plate, but he’s a little bit worse against lefties, and he’s actually a bit worse at home. Both Bieber and Berrios are allowing under a .300wOBA to both sides of the plate, so I’m likely not going to be picking on either of these guys, but they both have tough matchups. I’ll be looking for one-off bats here but I won’t be stacking either team.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Jose Berrios
GPP Note: The Twins only K at a 20.5% rate to RHPs on the year
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Shane Bieber
GPP Note: The Indians K at a 22.4% rate to RHPs on the year
Stackability:
Minnesota Twins – 2.5 Stars
Cleveland Indians – 2.5 Stars
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers: Jacob deGrom vs. Sandy Alcantara
This game is not one that I will be attacking with bats, as both of these pitchers have been pretty good on the year. deGrom is going to be my favorite option on the slate here today, given the matchup is about as good as it can get. The Marlins have a team ISO of .118 and K at a 25.1% rate against RHPs. Their team ISO ranks dead last in the league, and deGrom has been really good over his last few starts. I can see him going for 10+ K’s in this one, so I’ll be avoiding the Marlins bats in this one. I’m likely not stacking against Alcantara either, but he is a reverse splits guy and is a bit worse to RHBs. He’s allowing a .336wOBA to RHB’s, but he’s allowing more power to lefties. I won’t be stacking Mets in this one, but I loveeeeeeee Pete Alonso as a one-off here.
NYM 5-star plays: Jacob deGrom, Pete Alonso (.313 ISO vs RHPs)
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: The Mets K at a 22.6% rate to RHPs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: The Marlins are striking out at a 25.1% rate to RHPs on the year
Stackability:
New York Mets – 2.5 Stars
Miami Marlins – 0.5 Stars
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San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Beede vs. Jhoulys Chacin
Tyler Beede has been pretty bad to both sides of the plate, as he’s allowing a .368wOBA to LHBs and a .328wOBA to RHBs. So, I’ll be be stacking Brewers in this one! They’re beyond due for a huge game, and they hit much better at home. My two favorite are going to be Yelich (.408 ISO) and Moose (.284) as their both due for some big games. On the other side, Chacin has been pretty bad as well, but the Giants are pretty bad offensively, as they have a team ISO of .165 and K at a 22.7% rate to RHPs. He’s been worse against righties, allowing a .358wOBA and 11 of the 16 HRs he’s given up have been to righties. I like the Giants as an underrated stack here as they’ll be virtually unowned.
SFG 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Evan Longoria, Kevin Pillar, Buster Posey
GPP Note: The Giants strikeout at a 22.7% rate to RHPs on the year
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich (.408 ISO vs. RHPs), Mike Moustakas (.284 ISO)
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Eric Thames, Ryan Braun
GPP Note: The Brewers do K at a 25.1% rate to RHPs on the year
Stackability:
San Francisco Giants – 3.5 Stars
Milwaukee Brewers – 4.5 Stars
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers: Zack Greinke vs. Miles Mikolas
Greinke has been really tough on LHBs, and the Cardinals have been in the bottom 3 of almost every offensive category since the start of June, and they haven’t shown any signs of pulling out of this funk. Greinke is allowing a wOBA of under .250 to LHBs which effectively takes them out of play for me, and he’s been a bit worse to righties but he’s still been tough on them. Goldy profiles well against him, but that’s about all I’m touching from these Cardinals bats. I love Greinke as a pitching option today. For the Cardinals, Mikolas has been really bad against LHBs, like really bad. He’s allowing a .370wOBA to LHBs and they’re also hitting over .300 off of him. I’ll definitely be stacking some D-Backs here, as they’re in a really good spot and I think they’ll be under-owned.
ARZ 5-star plays: Ketel Marte (.222 ISO against RHPs), Zack Greinke
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Jake Lamb, Jarrod Dyson
GPP Note: The D-Backs K at a 21.9% rate to RHPs on the year
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: The Cardinals K at a 22.8% rate to RHPs on the year
Stackability:
Arizona Diamondbacks – 4 Stars
St. Louis Cardinals – 1 Star
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers: Jordan Zimmermann vs. Homer Bailey
I actually like the idea of stacking Royals a bit in this one, as they’ll be un-owned and Zimm has been pretty bad. He’s allowing a wOBA of .403 against LHBs, so you can stack the Royals lefties in this one, but he’s been pretty bad against righties as well. The Tigers have been terrible offensively this year, and Bailey has actually been pitching really well this year. The Tigers K at a 26% rate which is one of the highest in the league, and they have a team ISO of .149 and only the Marlins rank lower. He hasn’t been sharp in his last 2 starts before the ASB, but the matchup here is almost too good to pass up. He’s a really good SP2 option on DK.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: The Tigers K at a 26% rate to RHPs
KCR 5-star plays: Homer Bailey, Alex Gordon
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler, Cheslor Cuthbert
GPP Note: Zimmermann has been really bad against both sides of the plate, stack the Royals here.
Stackability:
Detroit Tigers – 1.5 Stars
Kansas City Royals – 4 Stars
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers: Trevor Williams vs. Jose Quintana
Williams has been pretty solid for the most part, but it’s begun to fall apart as the season goes along. He’s allowing a .340wOBA to LHBs which makes me like some of the Cubbies lefties here. Schwarber (.241 ISO), Rizzo (.277 ISO), Jason Heyward (.205 ISO) all have ISOs over .200 against RHPs. I love the idea of stacking the Cubbies here and they’re one of my favorite stacks of the day. On the other side of the ball, the Pirates actually do struggle against LHPs, as they have a team ISO of .137 and K at a 23.5% rate to LHPs. This sets up for Quintana to have another nice start here. He’s one of my favorite SP2 options on DK.
PITT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: The Pirates only K at a 19.2% rate to RHP’s.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Jason Heyward, Javier Baez, Jose Quintana
GPP Note: The Cubs strikeout at a 23.1% rate against RHP’s.
Stackability:
Pittsburgh Pirates – 1.5Stars
Chicago Cubs – 4.5 Stars
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander vs. Ariel Jurado
Justin Verlander has actually been very HR prone this year, he’s given up 26 on the year, and is allowing almost 2 per 9 innings pitched. Add in the park factor and I think we see him give up another 1 or 2 HRs today against this power hitting Rangers team. They have a team ISO of .201 against RHPs and their LHBs are one of the best in the MLB at hitting righties. However, they do K at a 24.6% rate to RHPs on the year, which gives us the ceiling we’re looking for with Verlander. We saw Cole get touched up a little bit a few days ago by this Rangers team, and I think he’s better than Verlander so I expect Verlander to get touched up a bit in this one. Now, Ariel Jurado is an extreme reverse splits pitcher, as he is allowing a .364wOBA to RHBs and 7 of the 9 HRs he’s allowed have been to RHBs. I LOVEEEEEEEEE the Astros in this spot today, as they have a bunch of righty bats that can hurt him, and their lefties can get to him as well. I’ll be stacking Astros in this one and I suggest you do the same.
HOU 5-star plays: George Springer (.282 ISO), Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Josh Reddick
GPP Note: The Astros only K at a 18% rate to RHPs on the year, which is the lowest in the MLB.
TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo (.349 ISO)
4-star plays: Nomar Mazara, Shin-Soo Choo, Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: The Rangers K at a 24.6% rate to RHPs on the year
STACKABILITY:
Houston Astros – 5 Stars
Texas Rangers – 3.5 Stars
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Mahle vs. Antonio Senzatela
Mahle averagaes almost 2 HRs/9 innings and now he gets to pitch in Coors, I smell a recipe for disaster. At home, the Rockies have a .220 ISO vs. RHPs, which ranks 2nd in the MLB and their K rate drops to 20.4%. He’s really struggled against lefties as well, he’s allowing a .364wOBA to LHBs and 12 of the 18 HRs he’s allowed have been to LHBs. His ERA is also almost a point and a half higher on the road than it is at home. Charlie Blackmon is going to be my favorite play out of anyone one this slate, even more than Trout. I love stacking Rockies here. On the other side, Senzatela has been brutal against LHBs as he’s allowing a .396wOBA and he has an ERA of just under 6 at home. He doesn’t pitch well in Coors and the Reds bats have some serious threats that can hurt him in this spot. I’ll be stacking both sides in this game.
CIN 5-star plays: Derek Dietrich (.350 ISO), Jesse Winker (.249 ISO)
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Yasiel Puig
GPP Note: The Reds K at a 24.4% rate to RHPs
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon (.328 ISO vs RHPs), Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Daniel Murphy, Ryan McMahon, Trevor Story
GPP Note: The Rockies K at a 23.4% rate to RHPs
Stackability:
Cincinnati Reds – 4.5 Stars
Colorado Rockies – 4.5 Stars
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers: Yusei Kikuchi vs. Jose Suarez
Kikuchi has been a punching bag for RHBs since he joined the MLB this year, and the Angels are coming off throwing a no-hitter on the night that they honored Tyler Skaggs so they are still riding very high. Kikuchi is allowing a .349wOBA to RHBs and 15 of the 19 HRs that he’s given up have been to them as well. Mike Trout really stands out to me here as well, as he crushes lefties to the tune of a .289 ISO and this Angels team is also very right handed heavy. They’re very stackable again today. For the Angels, Suarez is an interesting young prospect, but so far in his young career he has really struggled against RHBs, as he’s allowing a .392wOBA to them and 5 of the 8 HRs he’s given up have been to righties as well. The good news here is that the Mariners really have struggled against LHPs since E5 was traded away. They K at a 25.3% rate to LHPs, which is one of the highest in the league. With the Angels still riding high off honoring Skaggs in this homestand, I think we get a solid performance out of him here today. He’s worth a shot in some MME GPPs and as an SP2 on DK.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mallex Smith, Domingo Santana
GPP Note: The Mariners K at a 25.3% rate to LHPs on the year
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout (.289 ISO vs RHPs)
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Justin Upton, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: The Angles K at only a 17% clip to LHPs
Stackability:
Seattle Mariners – 2.5 Stars
Los Angeles Angels – 4 Stars
Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland A’s
Starting Pitchers: Reynaldo Lopez vs. Brett Anderson
This should be an interesting game, as no one on either offense really excites me here. This sets up to be one of those random games where Lopez pitches really well, despite allowing a .351wOBA and allowing 12 HRs to right handed batters on the year. The player that really only gets the blood flowing a bit for me is Matt Olson being a lefty as Lopez is allowing a .400wOBA to lefties and Olson has a .270 ISO vs RHPs on the year. However, the fact that Lopez gets a nice park upgrade here is a bit concerning for me as Oakland is a very pitcher friendly park. Just a gut feeling for me that he pitches well in this one. On the A’s side, Brett Anderson and his 9-5 record have a really nice matchup here, as the White Sox have a team ISO of .151 and K at a 24.6% rate to LHPs on the year. I think this will be a low scoring game, but I think the A’s take it and sweep the White Sox.
CHW 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: The White Sox K at a 24.6% rate to LHPs
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson (.272 ISO vs RHPs)
4-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Brett Anderson
GPP Note: The A’s K at a 20.9% rate to RHPs on the year
Stackability:
Chicago White Sox – 2 Star
Oakland A’s – 3 Stars
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Mike Soroka vs. Cal Quantrill
Soroka almost cracked my top 3 here, as he gets the park upgrade in San Diego, but with how the Padres have been hitting lately he’s going to be a GPP play only for me. The Padres have a team ISO of .188 which is in the top half of the league, but the good news for Soroka’s ceiling here is that they K at a 26.1% clip to RHPs. He’s a decent GPP option here, but I don’t think he goes unscathed in this one. On the other side, Quantrill is likely going to get lit up, as this Braves team is still riding hot, and they crush righties to the tune of a .199 team ISO and K at a 22.5% clip. He gets the park upgrade of being in San Diego, but I think Freddie Freeman and company get to him early, and with how depleted this Padres pitching staff is right now (as evidenced by them starting Cal Quantrill) this one can get ugly in a hurry. The Braves are one of my favorite stacks today.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman (.282 ISO vs RHPs)
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, Mike Soroka, Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley
GPP Note: The Braves have a team ISO of .199 against RHPs on the year
SDP 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: The Padres K at a 26.1% clip to RHPs on the year
Stackability:
Atlanta Braves – 4.5 Stars
San Diego Padres – 2.5 Stars
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. David Price
There’s really not much to like from this game offensively here, as Ryu has been the front-runner for the Cy Young in the National League, and with how little these two teams play not many Red Sox have really seen him which plays to his advantage as well. The Sox don’t K at a high rate to lefties (21%) but they’re pretty ranked 15th in team ISO against them at .184 which is respectable, but with how good Ryu has been I won’t be touching them too much here. The Dodgers offense is pretty mediocre against LHP’s as they drop from a team ISO of .209 against RHP’s to a team ISO of .190 and they K at a 21.7% rate to lefties. Price was also really good heading into the ASB and I expect him to pick up where he left off here in prime time on Sunday night baseball. The K upside is there as we saw with E-Rod a few days ago which makes him a solid GPP play if you’re playing the all day slate. If you’re going to stack Dodgers, I’d do it with their righty bats as a few of them hit lefties well (Turner, Hernandez, Taylor specifically).
LAD 5-star plays: Hyun-Jin Ryu
4-star plays: Justin Turner (.228 ISO vs. LHP’s), Kike Hernandez, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: The Dodgers K at a 21.7% rate to LHPs on the year.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, David Price
GPP Note: The Red Sox K only K at a 21% rate to LHPs on the year.
Stackability:
Los Angeles Dodgers – 2 Stars
Boston Red Sox – 1.5 Stars
Make sure to check out the Coaches Notes/Players Picks as they will have this game covered for you in all areas. The pricing is so much different from the main slate that it can be tough to breakdown from a DFS standpoint. With that said, at first glance, I would be attacking the Cardinals offense and hoping to jump on them while the field views them as terrible plays after they haven’t scored many runs over the past week or so.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches. Don’t forget to use promo code MUTT18 for 20% off!
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