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DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Advice, and Strategy for FanDuel and DraftKings – July 13th, 2019

Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

First  Things First – Looking at Pitchers

I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start by looking at the Research Station and find my main targets based on which teams on the slate have the lowest ISO and wOBA’s against that pitcher’s handedness. From there I then go to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. After my initial research, I’d rank my top 3 as of now at:

  1. Patrick Corbin –  I love the K upside in a tough match-up against a dangerous PHI team.  Corbin is one of those guys that seems to step up against tougher opponents.  It is also what would have been Tyler Skaggs’ birthday and we know that he and Corbin were as close as any two baseball players out there.  I am predicting something solid here.
  2. Charlie Morton – This seems like an obvious call against a BAL team that has struggled all year.  Do not overthink this spot for Morton.  The K upside with a win share is very strong here.
  3. Matthew Boyd – Boyd has had two very strong K starts against KC this season but has been bitten by a bad inning or two.  If he is able to hold off from a run prevention standpoint, we could be looking at a near double-digit K game.

After I get finished looking at pitching, I move on to my hitters. I look for which teams have the highest ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. ISO stands for Isolated Power and it is defined as:

ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account. 

Where do we get most of our fantasy points in DFS baseball? Home runs, and if a player has a high ISO it usually correlates very well with extra-base hits and home runs. So the higher a player’s ISO is, the more likely they are to produce hitting for extra bases and home runs, which in turn = more fantasy points! An average ISO is right around .140 and an elite ISO is anything above .250. Teams with the highest ISO’s on the slate tend to score more runs and are in turn more stackable. For more info on how to use ISO to your advantage, check out dabbingpuggle’s Tournament Strategy Guide here!


Full Count Breakdown:

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs

Starting Pitchers:  Jordan Lyles vs. Jon Lester

Lyles has given up 7 HRs to the Cubs roster in just 89 PAs.  The Cubs are in a great spot here as a stack.  Lyles has racked up a bunch of strikeouts against them in 2 starts this season but 4 of those 7 HRs have come this season.  PIT has a team ISO of just .139 against LHP this season.  The kryptonite to their offense could definitely be LHP.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Starling Marte, Bryan Reynolds

GPP Note: The Pirates K at a 24% rate to LHP’s.

CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber

4-star plays:  Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras

GPP Note: The Cubs strikeout at a 23.1% rate against RHP’s.

Stackability:

Pittsburgh Pirates – 2.5 Stars

Chicago Cubs –  4 Stars


Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Starting Pitchers: Patrick Corbin vs Aaron Nola

This game is all about pitching for me.  I would not be looking to stack against either pitcher.  I can understand the use of guys as one-offs due to some of the ISO’s and BvPs we have in play here.  We know that the Phillies are capable of a lot more as an offense while the Nationals have actually been one of the best offenses over the last month and a half.  I still want shares of both Ps here as Corbin has big time K potential while Nola has been a TON better at home.

WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon

4-star plays: Matt Adams, Juan Soto

GPP Note: The Nationals K at a 22.5% rate to RHP’s

PHI 5-star plays: Jean Segura

4-star plays:  JT Realmuto, Scott Kingery

GPP Note: The Phillies K at a 20.8% rate to LHP’s

Stackability:

Washington Nationals –  2.5 Stars

Philadelphia Phillies –  2 Stars


Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees

Starting Pitchers:  Clayton Richard vs. J.A. Happ

Happ had a really solid start against TOR earlier this season, allowing just a solo HR to be hit.  His K numbers are all over the place.  TOR as an offense has been solid for the most part, especially against LHP.  I do like Happ going against his old team but feel like we need to stack this game from a bats perspective.  We know the Yankees have power for days, especially against LHP.

TOR 5-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

4-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Randal Grichuk

NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez

4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion, Gleyber Torres

Stackability:

Toronto Blue Jays: 3.5 Stars

New York Yankees:  4 Stars


Tampa Bay Rays (-178) vs. Baltimore Orioles

Starting Pitchers:  Brendan McKay vs. Aaron Brooks

We need to pay attention to the BAL pitching as I have seen conflicting reports.  The sites have Brooks starting this game and that makes a huge difference.  He isn’t stretched out and it will, essentially, turn into some sort of a bullpen game.  The Orioles bullpen is NOT very good so we NEED to be all over TB here.  McKay has been solid in his 2 MLB starts and I think he makes a solid option, even though some of the Orioles bats have been strong against LHP this season.

TAM 5-star plays: Tommy Pham

4-star plays: Nate Lowe, Austin Meadows

GPP Note: The Orioles have given up 172 HRs so far this season

BAL 5-star plays: Renato Nunez

4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Hanser Alberto

GPP Note: This is a GPP winning type stack, in a contrarian sense (strong numbers vs LHP from the top)

Stackability:

Tampa Bay Rays –  4.5 Stars

Baltimore Orioles –  3.5 Stars


Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox

Starting Pitchers: Ross Stripling vs. Chris Sale

Chris Sale has nearly a 40% K rate when pitching at home this season.  You read that right, he is striking out just under 40% of the batters he is facing at home.  That number is astronomical for a starting pitcher.  I want to use a handful of shares of Sale because of his K upside in a match-up that most will auto-avoid due to it being against the Dodgers.  On the other side, Stripling still hasn’t been stretched out too far and his reverse split tendencies have me worried about a BOS explosion.

LAD 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: NONE

GPP Note: The Dodgers K at a 21.7% rate to LHPs on the year.

BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts

4-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers

GPP Note: The Red Sox K only K at a 20.6% rate to RHPs on the year.

Stackability:

Los Angeles Dodgers – 1.5 Stars

Boston Red Sox –  3.5 Stars


Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians

Starting Pitchers:  Jake Odorizzi vs. Trevor Bauer

Odorizzi has made 1 start against CLE this season and struck out 11 in 6 innings while allowing just one hit, a solo HR.  Bauer has fared decently against MIN this season as he has racked up a ton of Ks but has been bitten by the HR.  He has been bitten hard by HRs at home so far in 2019 so this game could offer sneaky stack value as Odorizzi has really struggled with LHBs.

MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler

4-star plays: Nelson Cruz

GPP Note: The Twins only K at a 20.5% rate to RHPs on the year

CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor

4-star plays: Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana

GPP Note: The Indians K at a 22.4% rate to RHPs on the year

Stackability:

Minnesota Twins –  3 Stars

Cleveland Indians –  3 Stars


New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

Starting Pitchers:  Noah Syndergaard vs. Zac Gallen

This is another game that I want exposure to SPs from as we know about Syndergaard and his ability, while Gallen has been fairly impressive in his short MLB career.  Gallen lasted just 2 innings in his last start due to a rain delay so game log watchers are going to wonder why such a short appearance.  The Mets offense has a couple of interesting pieces but overall it lacks punch.  We already know how terrible the Marlins are on the offensive side.

NYM 5-star plays: Noah Syndergaard

4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil

GPP Note: The Mets are striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.

MIA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Miguel Rojas

GPP Note: MIA as a roster has a 25.8% K rate against Syndergaard

Stackability:

New York Mets –  2 Stars

Miami Marlins –  0.5 Stars


Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers

Starting Pitchers:  Wade Miley vs. Mike Minor

This is yet another game that excites me in terms of SPs.  Both LHPs have been really impressive and both offer solid floors to go along with GPP type upside.  I think Minor has the higher ceiling while Miley has a higher floor.  Both offenses are capable of putting up runs but are ones that I generally prefer against RHP.

HOU 5-star plays: George Springer

4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel

GPP Note: HOU is striking out at just a 17.8% rate against LHP.

TEX 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Delino DeShields

GPP Note: TEX is striking out at a 29% rate against LHP.

STACKABILITY:

Houston Astros –  2 Stars

Texas Rangers –  1.5 Stars

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San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Starting Pitchers:  Madison Bumgarner vs. Zach Davies

This game doesn’t excite me from any angle.  Davies just doesn’t rack up much for K’s and is generally just blah as a DFS play.  Bumgarner has some upside yet in his arm but the Brewers offense is extremely dangerous, even when struggling.  I would suggest looking at MIL plays as one-offs here.

SFG 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Evan Longoria

GPP Note: The Giants strikeout at a 22.7% rate to RHPs on the year

MIL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun

GPP Note: MIL is striking out at a 23.3% rate against LHP.

Stackability:

San Francisco Giants – 2 Stars

Milwaukee Brewers –  2.5 Stars


Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Starting Pitchers:  Merrill Kelly vs. Dakota Hudson

This is another game that I have very little interest in from an offensive perspective.  I want exposure to Hudson because his ground ball rate has been extremely impressive.  I would consider an LHB stack for ARI but I am not enamored with it as Hudson has gotten stronger and stronger as the season has gone on.  The Cardinals offense has been pretty anemic for an extended period of time now.

ARZ 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Jake Lamb

GPP Note: The D-Backs K at a 21.9% rate to RHPs on the year

STL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Paul Goldschmidt

GPP Note: STL is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP

Stackability:

Arizona Diamondbacks –  1.5 Stars

St. Louis Cardinals –  2.5 Stars


Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals

Starting Pitchers:  Matthew Boyd vs. Brad Keller

I am very much interested in just Boyd from this game.  Neither offense has much to offer in terms of upside while Keller has been pretty below-average since a solid start to his season.  Detroit’s offense has been pretty bad while KC has a couple of guys you would think about using but they face the much tougher pitcher.  KC actually has really solid BvP against Boyd but I feel strongly about this spot for Boyd, coming off of the All-Star break.

DET 5-star plays: Matthew Boyd

4-star plays: NONE

GPP Note: DET is striking out at a 26.4% rate against RHP this season.

KCR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: NONE

GPP Note: KC is striking out at a 24.9% rate against LHP this season.

Stackability:

Detroit Tigers –  1 Star

Kansas City Royals –  1 Star


Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies

Starting Pitchers:  Tanner Roark vs. Kyle Freeland

Coors field game which should bring us some scoring after both teams combined for just 5 runs on Friday night.  The SPs going in this one are definitely below the quality of Friday night’s pitchers.  Freeland has been a train wreck this season while Roark has always been up and down.  This is a spot to not overthink and just take bats, in Coors.

CIN 5-star plays: Yasiel Puig, Eugenio Suarez

4-star plays: Jose Peraza, Nick Senzel

GPP Note:  Do NOT be afraid to mix an LHB or two into your stack

COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon

4-star plays: Nolan Arenado

GPP Note: Always, always, always stack the top of the order

Stackability:

Cincinnati Reds –  4 Stars

Colorado Rockies –  4 Stars


Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels

Starting Pitchers:  Undecided vs. Matt Harvey

PENDING SEA’s SP

SEA 5-star plays: 

4-star plays: 

GPP Note: The Mariners K at a 25% rate to RHPs on the year

LAA 5-star plays: 

4-star plays: 

GPP Note:  

Stackability:

Seattle Mariners –  Stars

Los Angeles Angels –  Stars


Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland A’s

Starting Pitchers:  Dylan Covey vs. Chris Bassitt

I am a huge fan of Chris Bassitt and feel like I have a great feel for what he’s about to do.  This spot feels like an excellent one to get on board with him against the White Sox.  The K rate is up there for the White Sox and that should help raise Bassitt’s floor.  I have some interest in Covey but we need to look into how many pitches he is set up to throw.  The A’s can struggle against some RHPs but they also can hit a lot of HRs.

CHW 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada

GPP Note: The White Sox K at a 25.6% rate to RHPs

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson

4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Khris Davis

GPP Note:  The middle of this lineup is definitely where I want to be with all the HR upside.

Stackability:

Chicago White Sox –  2.5 Stars

Oakland A’s –  3.5 Stars


Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres

Starting Pitchers:  Julio Teheran vs. Joey Lucchesi

This game could have some fireworks, even in SD.  I love the Braves and the top of their lineup plus guys like Albies and Flowers at the bottom.  You can get creative with stacks and that’s what I like to do.  I would roll multiple ATL stacks, mixing and matching.  The Padres aren’t in as great of a spot here.  Teheran is a fine pitcher but does walk a lot of guys.  Walks can lead to big innings so I would look to use Padres as one-offs who have big-time power.

ATL 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson

4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson

GPP Note: ATL is my favorite stack on the slate.  The RHBs do a TON of damage

SDP 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe

GPP Note:  HR hunting with one-offs from SD in this spot

Stackability:

Atlanta Braves –  4.5 Stars

San Diego Padres –  2.5 Stars


Make sure to check out the Coaches Notes/Players Picks as they will have this game covered for you in all areas. The pricing is so much different from the main slate that it can be tough to breakdown from a DFS standpoint. With that said, at first glance, I would be attacking the Cardinals offense and hoping to jump on them while the field views them as terrible plays after they haven’t scored many runs over the past week or so.


As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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