Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Steve aka @mutt18 on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
First Things First – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start by looking at the Research Station and find my main targets based on which teams on the slate have the lowest ISO and wOBA’s against that pitcher’s handedness. From there I then go to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. After my initial research, I’d rank my top 3 as of now at:
- Gerrit Cole – Cole is the clear #1 here tonight, as he’s K’ing batters at a 36.7% rate and the Rangers are one of the most strikeout happy teams in the MLB. He’s your cash option tonight and isn’t too badly priced on either site for GPPs as well.
- Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg is actually better on the road, and he’s been really tough against LHBs this year, as they’re hitting a measly .166 against him, and the Phillies are pretty left handed hitter heavy. He won’t be in the main slate, but if you’re playing all day he should be one of your top options
- Caleb Smith – He had a rough first start back off the IL, which can be expected, but he gets the Mets at home where he has been phenomenal. At home, he has a 1.84 ERA a .176 BAA and allowing only a .228wOBA. He’s a great play here who will be under-owned.
After I get finished looking at pitching, I move on to my hitters. I look for which teams have the highest ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. ISO stands for Isolated Power and it is defined as:
ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account. For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200.
Where do we get most of our fantasy points in DFS baseball? Home runs, and if a player has a high ISO it usually correlates very well with extra-base hits and home runs. So the higher a player’s ISO is, the more likely they are to produce hitting for extra bases and home runs, which in turn = more fantasy points! An average ISO is right around .140 and an elite ISO is anything above .250. Teams with the highest ISO’s on the slate tend to score more runs and are in turn more stackable. For more info on how to use ISO to your advantage, check out dabbingpuggle’s Tournament Strategy Guide here!
Full Count Breakdown:
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs (-160)
Starting Pitchers: Chris Archer vs. Yu Darvish
Baseball is back! We’ve got a decent matchup here, but it likely won’t be on many slates aside from showdown, or all day slates, but we’ll dig in anyway because that’s what we do here at DFS Army! Archer has been pretty bad this year, and is actually worse against RHB’s than he is LHB’s (.356wOBA allowed vs. .347wOBA allowed), but he’s been bad against both sides so I love the idea of attacking him here with the Cubbies bats, especially if the wind is blowing out to at Wrigley. Darvish has been really bad against LHB’s, but he’s been really good against righties. He’s allowing a .361wOBA and 14 HR’s allowed against LHB’s (cough..Josh Bell..cough). The Pirates also only K at a 19.2% rate to RHP’s which limits his ceiling even more. I think they get to him today so I’m not going to have any shares of him.
PITT 5-star plays: Josh Bell
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: The Pirates only K at a 19.2% rate to RHP’s.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez
4-star plays: Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: The Cubs strikeout at a 23.1% rate against RHP’s.
Stackability:
Pittsburgh Pirates – 3.5 Stars
Chicago Cubs – 4.5 Stars
Washington Nationals (-135) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitchers: Stephen Strasburg vs. Nick Pivetta
Strasburg hasn’t been great this year, but he hasn’t been too bad either. He’s actually been really tough on lefties this year, allowing a .231wOBA and .166 batting average which takes a good amount of the Phillies bats out for me. Stras is actually in a pretty good spot here because the Phillies K at a 23% rate and he’s actually been better on the road (3.19 ERA vs. 4.11 ERA at home). I’ll definitely have some shares of him. Pivetta on the other side, has been very up and down since getting recalled from AAA. His K’s are down this year at 7.59/9 where he’s been a closer to 9-10/9 inning guy in his career so that is a bit of a concern for me. He’s also been pretty bad against both sides of the plate, as he’s allowing a .403 wOBA to RHB’s and a .343wOBA to LHB’s. I’d attack him with the Nationals RHB’s as he’s been giving up more power to righties. Anthony Rendon has a .296 ISO against RHP’s on the year…just sayin’.
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Howie Kendrick (if he starts)
GPP Note: The Nationals K at a 22.5% rate to RHP’s
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura
GPP Note: The Phillies K at a 23% rate to RHP’s on the year
Stackability:
Washington Nationals – 3 Stars
Philadelphia Phillies – 2.5 Stars
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees (-270)
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Sanchez vs. Domingo German
Stack the Yankees in this game. This one stood out to me as soon as I looked at the matchup. Sanchez has been horribleeeeeeee all year long and gets to face the Yankees in his first start back from the ASB at Yankee Stadium. He’s allowing a .373wOBA to opposing teams when he pitches on the road, with a 6.75 ERA. He’s been bad against both sides of the plate, but he’s actually been worse against righties on the year. I’ll be stacking the Yankees in this one, as I expect some fireworks here. German has actually been pretty solid on the year, my only concern is that they will limit him on a pitch count like they had been doing before the ASB. I couldn’t find anything on Twitter about him being on a pitch count, so if he’s ready to go, I’ll definitely have some shares of him. Toronto K’s at a 24.6% rate to RHP’s and have a team ISO of .183 which isn’t too scary. They’re much better against LHP’s.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner, Gleyber Torres, D.J. LeMahieu, Domingo German
Stackability:
Toronto Blue Jays: 2.5 Stars
New York Yankees: 5 Stars
Tampa Bay Rays (-145) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Yonny Chirinos vs. Dylan Bundy
Chirinos has actually been pretty solid for the Rays so far this year, and the Orioles offense has been pretty bad. I actually like him as an SP2 option on DraftKings today as the Orioles have a .163 team ISO against RHP’s, and K at a 23.3% rate. He’s also been very tough on lefties, allowing only a .194 average and .261wOBA. If you want to go contrarian, he is a bit worse against RHB’s (.285wOBA and 10 HR’s allowed) but I think I’ll have a few shares of him in this one as the Orioles offense doesn’t really scare me. Bundy had one of his random really good games last time out, but the underlying numbers still show that he has been pretty bad. He’s a reverse splits guy, and is worse against RHB’s, but he gives up HR’s to both sides of the plate (20 allowed this year). He allows a .358wOBA to RHB’s, so I’ll have no problem throwing out a few Rays stacks in this one.
TAM 5-star plays: Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Avisail Garcia, Yandy Diaz, Yonny Chirinos
GPP Note: 12 of the 20 HR’s that Bundy has given up on the year have been to RHB’s.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Renato Nunez
GPP Note: The Orioles K at a 23.3% rate to RHP’s on the year
Stackability:
Tampa Bay Rays – 4 Stars
Baltimore Orioles – 2.5 Stars
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Kenta Maeda vs. Eduardo Rodriguez
Maeda just hasn’t looked right to me over his past few starts, but he could’ve just been suffering from some fatigue and the ASB could’ve been just what he needed. I’m going to go with the wait and see approach here though, so I won’t have any shares of him tonight. He’s been pretty bad against LHB’s on the year, as he’s allowing a .342wOBA to them, and he’s also been much worse pitching on the road this year (.323wOBA allowed and 5.52 ERA on the road). I like the Red Sox lefties here, especially Devers as he has a .248 ISO against RHP’s on the year and was white hot going into the ASB. The Dodgers offense is pretty mediocre against LHP’s as they drop from a team ISO of .209 against RHP’s to a team ISO of .190 and they K at a 21.7% rate to lefties. E-Rod will be very low owned as people are afraid of this Dodgers team, but I’ll have a few shots at him in GPP’s with his K upside. If you’re going to stack Dodgers, I’d do it with their righty bats as they hit lefties well (Turner, Hernandez, Taylor specifically).
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Turner (.228 ISO vs. LHP’s), Kike Hernandez, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: The Dodgers K at a 21.7% rate to LHPs on the year.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: The Red Sox K only K at a 20.6% rate to RHPs on the year.
Stackability:
Los Angeles Dodgers – 3 Stars
Boston Red Sox – 3.5 Stars
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians (-135)
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson vs. Mike Clevinger
Gibson has been very solid for the Twins this year, but gets a tough matchup here against the Indians as they started to come alive offensively going into the ASB. I’m not too high on stacking against him, but I’ll have a few shares of the Indians here. He’s a bit worse against LHBs as he’s allowing a .315wOBA against them and he’s been worse on the road this year as well. On the road he has an ERA of 4.47 and is allowing a .349wOBA compared to a 3.69ERA and .260wOBA at home. On the other side, Clevinger looked great in his last start and got some much needed rest after coming off the IL a few weeks ago. He’s only started 5 games this year, but has an insane K rate of 14.79/9. RHBs can do anything against him, as he’s allowing a .160wOBA and .118 average and lefties haven’t been much better with a .196 average. I like Clevinger in this spot today, but I won’t be going too overweight on him due to how good the Twins offense is. He’s a GPP only option for me, but a good one none the less. I won’t be stacking Twins today due to the matchup, but if you want a few one-off’s I’d go with one of their lefties (Kepler or Polanco specifically)
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler
GPP Note: The Twins only K at a 20.5% rate to RHPs on the year
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor (.249 ISO against RHPs)
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Mike Clevinger
GPP Note: The Indians K at a 22.4% rate to RHPs on the year
Stackability:
Minnesota Twins – 2.5 Stars
Cleveland Indians – 3 Stars
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins (-115)
Starting Pitchers: Jason Vargas vs. Caleb Smith
This game is not one that I will be attacking with bats, as both of these pitchers have been pretty good on the year. Vargas hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER’s in any of his starts all year long, but people keep stacking against him. The Marlins offense is just flat out bad, as shown by their .117 team ISO against LHPs. Vargas is a bit worse against RHBs if you want to attack him that way, but I’ll likely be avoiding the bats all together in this one, considering the size of the park in Miami and the fact that we have a huge slate and plenty of bats to choose from. Caleb Smith struggled a bit in his first start back off the IL (as expected) but I expect him to bounce back against this Mets team, as they have K at a 23.7% rate to LHPs and he’s been phenomenal at home. He has a 1.84 ERA at home and is only allowing a .228wOBA and a .176 average. I’ll have some shares of both Vargas and Smith tonight.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jason Vargas
GPP Note: The Mets K at a 23.7% rate to LHPs on the year
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Caleb Smith
GPP Note: The Marlins are striking out at a 21.7% rate to LHPs on the year
Stackability:
New York Mets – 2 Stars
Miami Marlins – 1.5 Stars
Houston Astros (-200) vs. Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Gerrit Cole vs. Jesse Chavez
Gerrit Cole has been nothing short of dominant this year, so I won’t really be picking on him with the Rangers bats, even with the great hitting conditions. Cole has been K’ing batters at a rate of 36.7% and he has a huge ceiling here as the Rangers are one of the K happiest teams in the MLB. I expect timing for hitters to be a bit off after a few days off, and with Cole throwing 101 MPH it doesn’t bode well for the Rangers offense here. I’ll only be using Joey Gallo as a one-off here, because if he can get a hold of one of Cole’s fastballs it will go a long way. On the other side, Jesse Chavez has actually been pretty decent since joining the rotation, but he’s a reverse splits guy and the Astros have some pretty serious RHBs. He’s allowing a .353wOBA to RHBs on the year so I’ll be picking on him with the Astros righties. His ceiling is also very limited here as the Astros just don’t K against RHPs (18%).
HOU 5-star plays: Gerrit Cole, George Springer (.282 ISO)
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: The Astros only K at a 18% rate to RHPs on the year, which is the lowest in the MLB.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: The Rangers K at a 24.6% rate to RHPs on the year
STACKABILITY:
Houston Astros – 3.5 Stars
Texas Rangers – 1.5 Stars
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San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-180)
Starting Pitchers: Shaun Anderson vs. Chase Anderson
We’ve got the two Anderson’s facing off, neither of which has had some great success this year. I’m going to start with Shaun, as the rookie is allowing a .339wOBA to opposing hitters on the road this year, with an ERA of 4.40 and a .282 BAA (batting average against) and tonight he is away from the friendly confines of Oracle Park. The Brewers also have a team ISO of .195 against RHPs and hit much better at home, their lefties are great against RHPs and I expect them to score some runs here. Chase Anderson is another reverse splits guy, who is much worse against RHBs. He’s allowing a .387wOBA and 7 of the 10 HRs he’s given up this year have been to RHBs. However, the Giants offense has been pretty bad all year long, as shown by their .165 team ISO and 22.7% K rate to RHPs. Chase Anderson makes for a decent SP2 on DK, but I won’t have many shares of him given the other matchups on the slate.
SFG 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: The Giants strikeout at a 22.7% rate to RHPs on the year
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich (.408 ISO vs. RHPs), Mike Moustakas (.284 ISO)
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Eric Thames, Chase Anderson
GPP Note: The Brewers do K at a 25.1% rate to RHPs on the year
Stackability:
San Francisco Giants – 2.5 Stars
Milwaukee Brewers – 4 Stars
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-120)
Starting Pitchers: Robbie Ray vs. Adam Wainright
I’m likely going to be avoiding the majority of the Cardinals bats here, considering how bad the Cardinals have been offensively. Since the start of June they rank in the bottom 3 of almost every offensive category, and Ray gets K’s in bunches. Ray is K’ing batters at a 30.6% rate and the Cardinals K at a 20.5% rate which is below the league average, but I expect him to be in like for 7-9 K’s in this one. If you’re going to attack Ray, do it with the Cardinals righties, as he has struggled a bit against RHBs allowing a .324wOBA and 12 of the 15 HRs he’s given up have been to RHBs. Paul Goldschmidt profiles well against him here, I love him as a one-off tonight. On the other side, Adam Wainright is on the down side of his career, and has been getting obliterated by LHBs this year to the tune of a .389wOBA. He’s been a little bit better at home, but I’d be confident in stacking those D-Backs lefties here.
ARZ 5-star plays: Ketel Marte (.222 ISO against RHPs)
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Jake Lamb, Jarrod Dyson, Robbie Ray
GPP Note: The D-Backs K at a 21.9% rate to RHPs on the year
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: The Cardinals K at a 20.5% rate to LHPs on the year
Stackability:
Arizona Diamondbacks – 3.5 Stars
St. Louis Cardinals – 2 Stars
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers: Undecided vs. Danny Duffy
I’m likely going to be avoiding this game for the most part, aside from some shares of Danny Duffy and Nick Castellanos. The Tigers are still undecided on a starter, even though they’ve had almost a week to figure it out. Either way this Royals offense hasn’t been great as they have at team ISO of .163 against RHPs and a .135 ISO against LHPs. I’ll likely be fading their bats either way here, aside from maybe Whit Merrifield due to his power/speed combo. Duffy is a reverse splits pitcher who has been worse against LHBs on the year, allowing a .367wOBA against them compared to a .313wOBA allowed to RHBs. He gives up more power to RHBs though, as 9 of the 12 HRs he’s allowed have been against righties. I’m not stacking either side, but Nick Castellanos profiles well against Duffy, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him homer in this one. Duffy is a decent SP2 option on DK.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos (.250 ISO vs. LHPs)
GPP Note: The Tigers K at a 25.3% rate to LHPs
KCR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: I’m likely avoiding this game all together aside from MMEing.
Stackability:
Detroit Tigers – 1.5 Stars
Kansas City Royals – 1.5 Stars
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies (-120)
Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray vs. Jon Gray
We’ve got the two Gray’s facing off tonight, I’ll start by breaking down Sonny. He’s been pretty good this year, but he gets the Coors matchup against the Rockies in what I’m predicting will be a lower scoring game. It usually takes teams a game or two to adjust to Coors, and especially where we had the ASB I think some of these hitters’ timing will be a bit off. I actually like the under here in this game, but a good amount of the field will still be stacking this game. Anyway, enough of my babbling, let’s get back to Sonny Gray. He’s been pretty tough against LHBs, allowing only a .242wOBA against them, and is allowing a .195BAA which bodes well for him here. Aside from Nolan Arenado, I don’t really see the Rockies bats getting to him here. The Rockies also K at a 23.4% rate to RHPs on the year. On the other side, Jon Gray has been OK, but he hasn’t been really himself this year. However, he has pitched better at home, as his ERA is almost a full point lower in Coors. I expect both of these offenses to have some rust in this first game, so I likely won’t be stacking it for that reason, plus I think both offenses will be chalky. If anything I’ll have a few Reds stacks but that is about it.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sonny Gray, Joey Votto, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: The Reds K at a 24.4% rate to RHPs
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jon Gray, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: The Rockies K at a 23.4% rate to RHPs
Stackability:
Cincinnati Reds – 3 Stars
Colorado Rockies – 2.5 Stars
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels (-155)
Starting Pitchers: Mike Leake vs. Taylor Cole (Opener)
Mike Leake has been very up and down this year, as he can get you either 50 FD points, or 10. Given the matchup I won’t have any shares of him, as the Angels K at one of the lowest rates in the MLB (18.1%) and I don’t think he’s worth the price here. I loveeeeee Mike Trout in this one, as he has a .380 ISO vs RHPs on the year, and I think he’ll be under-owned due to this being the late game. He’s got serious double-dong potential here, as he was white hot heading into the ASB. Taylor Cole will open for Felix Pena, who has really struggled against LHBs as he’s allowing a .392wOBA against them. I love Vogelbach as a one-off here, as he profiles really well. I’ll also have some Mariners stacks here, but most likely only 3 man stacks of their LHBs, they won’t be one of my main stacks.
SEA 5-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach
4-star plays: J.P. Crawford, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: The Mariners K at a 25% rate to RHPs on the year
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout (.380 ISO vs RHPs)
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Justin Upton
GPP Note: The Angles K at only a 18.1% clip to RHPs
Stackability:
Seattle Mariners – 3.5 Stars
Los Angeles Angels – 3 Stars
Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland A’s (-185)
Starting Pitchers: Ivan Nova vs. Mike Fiers
Ivan Nova has been one of the most frustrating pitchers to stack against all year long, as he routinely gets brutal matchups and overperforms in them. All of his underlying data says that he should be getting lit up, and I think today is the day his luck runs out. This A’s team is due for a big game, and he’s due for some regression. He’s been bad against both sides of the plate, allowing a .375wOBA to LHBs and a .368wOBA to RHBs and both sides of the plate are hitting over .300 against him. I love the A’s as a stack tonight, they are right handed hitter heavy, but as you see from the splits that shouldn’t matter here as Nova is bad against both sides. Mike Fiers on the other hand, has been very good at home in the friendly confines of Oakland. At home he has an ERA under 3, while allowing a .254wOBA which is above average. The White Sox are also pretty bad offensively as they have a team ISO of of .156 and K at a 25.6% rate to RHPs, which is 3rd highest in the MLB. I expect Fiers to have some success here tonight and he makes for a great SP2 option on DK, especially in cash.
CHW 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: The White Sox K at a 25.6% rate to RHPs
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman (.250 ISO vs RHPs), Matt Olson (.272 ISO vs RHPs)
4-star plays: Khris Davis, Ramon Laureano, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: The A’s K at a 20.9% rate to RHPs on the year
Stackability:
Chicago White Sox – 1 Star
Oakland A’s – 4.5 Stars
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres (-110)
Starting Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel vs. Dinelson Lamet
Keuchel actually gets a pretty decent matchup here, and if he can avoid some of the Padres righties he should be in line for a solid start here. His ceiling is also boosted because the Padres K at a 26% rate to LHPs on the year, but I can see Machado and Tatis Jr. getting to him a bit here. We don’t really have a big enough sample size from the year as Keuchel was just signed a few weeks ago, but at the time he’s allowing a .343wOBA to RHBs and all 3 of the HRs he’s given up have been to righties. I won’t have many shares of him, as I think Machado will get to him, but Keuchel is a solid SP2 GPP option tonight. On the other side, Lamet doesn’t have a big sample size either, but from what I can see it looks like he struggles against lefties. This can be a problem for him tonight, as the Braves have a few good lefties that they can throw at him here. I’m liking Freeman in this one (.282 ISO vs RHPs) along with the other Braves lefties.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman (.282 ISO vs RHPs)
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, Dallas Keuchel
GPP Note: The Braves have a team ISO of .199 against RHPs on the year
SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado (.429 ISO vs LHPs)
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: The Padres K at a 26% clip to LHPs on the year
Stackability:
Atlanta Braves – 3.5 Stars
San Diego Padres – 3.5 Stars
Make sure to check out the Coaches Notes/Players Picks as they will have this game covered for you in all areas. The pricing is so much different from the main slate that it can be tough to breakdown from a DFS standpoint. With that said, at first glance, I would be attacking the Cardinals offense and hoping to jump on them while the field views them as terrible plays after they haven’t scored many runs over the past week or so.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches. Don’t forget to use promo code MUTT18 for 20% off!
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