BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN 4 Location – San Antonio, Texas
Thanks for purchasing my UFC San Antonio breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card on big ESPN. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k+ goes to 1st place with a total of $135k being paid out. They are also starting the qualifier tournament, the Knockout Kings, where we have 100 qualifiers competing for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualified. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I have 2 shots at the Q so I will probably go a bit lighter overall and focus on getting 2 lineups that can finish in the top half, so I can move onto round 2. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Dom Pilarte $9,400 vs Felipe Colares $6,800
Domingo Pilarte
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 135
Reach: 74”
Gym: Revolution Dojo
From: Texas
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 138
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -335
Domingo Pilarte is making his return after a year layoff. He had one of the best fights in DWCS history against Vince Morales, winning a back & forth war. He was scheduled to fight Brian Kelleher, but had to pull out due to injury, and hasn’t fought since. This will be his long-awaited UFC debut. Pilarte is a huge 135er. He is 6’0 tall & will have a 4.5” reach advantage in this fight. He is also a southpaw. Pilarte likes to fight long & work behind straight punches & kicks on the feet. He has a wide stance & throws a lot of front leg sidekicks. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks, along with oblique kicks. He will throw it body, head to try to back opponents up. He has nice round kicks to the body & head. He has nice front kicks to the body. He doesn’t throw his hands often, but he has good one-twos. He will throw good jab, left hooks. He trusts in his chin & power, sitting down on hooks in the pocket. He will throw full power. He has nice rear uppercut, right hook combos but can get too predictable throwing them. He was clipped with a big shot & put down after throwing multiple uppercuts in a row. He has great heart & recoverability, and opponents will have to put him out to stop him. He packs power himself and has two KO’s. He has never been finished.
Pilarte is a very good grappler. He uses his shots to back opponents up & has excellent single legs. He is very powerful when he can get his hands connected and takes most fighters down. He has good timing on his double legs as well. I think he will be effective with his wrestling in this match. When he takes top position, he is excellent at taking the back. His long limbs allow him to have great control there & sneak his arm under the neck. He choked Vince Morales out unconscious in his last match. He has 3 rear naked choke finishes. When Pilarte takes top position, he will most likely get the finish or do enough damage to win the round. Pilarte has 4 submission victories. Pilarte should look to get takedowns, take the back & get the finish. He is the more technical striker, but the path of least resistance is through grappling.
Felipe Colares
Age: 25
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Team Nogueira
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 470 (FW)
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +275
Felipe Colares stepped up on short notice and up a weight class to make his UFC debut in February. He lost a decision but will be looking to put his best foot forward in his second appearance at BW. Colares is a young, aggressive grappler. His striking does not look good. He is stiff with his movements & flat footed. He does have a decent jab, he will double & triple up on to try to get inside. He will throw one-twos and likes to throw straights in combination to back opponents towards the cage. He will get crazy if he’s losing & try to force a war by winging shots. His defense isn’t good. He’s very open to hit & not very fast. He likes to throw a lot of kicks. He will throw round kicks to all parts of the body. He will even attempt spinning & jumping kicks. He doesn’t set the kicks up well & can be countered or taken down off them. Colares gets very emotional in the cage & will just swing wildly. I’m not sure if his striking is UFC level. He doesn’t have great power with just two KO/TKO’s. He’s never been finished.
Colares is a strong fighter & decent wrestler. He likes to use his punches to crash into the clinch, where he usually has a strength advantage. He will hit trips, throws and has nice takedowns against the cage. He has nice doubles & looks to have a lot of strength. He picked his last opponent up over his head & slammed him. Colares from top position isn’t great. He will try to pressure pass to dominant positions, but he struggles to pass opponent’s guards. He can be caught in pretty deep submissions but gets out well. Against lesser opponents he likes to take the back & go for rear naked chokes. In this fight, I think he will struggle to hold Pilarte down if he does take him down. He was out grappled & taken down himself multiple times in his last fight. He is ok in scrambles & can grapple through fatigue. He seems to rely a lot on explosion instead of technique. He doesn’t blend his skills together well yet. When he’s striking he doesn’t have any takedown defense and gets double legged easily. He gassed out pretty badly in his last match. In this fight back at 135 lbs, he probably will have better conditioning. Colares has 5 submissions & has finished all but one of his wins. Colares is going to have to make this fight a crazy war. He needs to go forward, deny the takedown attempts & keep it standing. I see him having a puncher’s chance in exchanges. He normally likes to grapple & I think Pilarte is clearly the better grappler, so this is a tough matchup.
Pilarte looks like the real deal. I was impressed with his performance on the Contender Series and he had to deal with some adversity in that fight as well. He looks well-rounded and I believe he will have an edge everywhere in this fight. He is the more technical striker and he looks to have more power as well. He will have a 4-inch reach advantage over Colares as well, so if he wants to stay standing I think he will win there and could finish. However, Colares was taken down 4 times in his UFC debut and Pilarte looks dangerous on the ground. I think that would be the easiest path to victory for him here. Take the fight to the ground and look for a submission. Colares isn’t a bad fighter himself but this does look like a bad matchup for him and I think he will need to hurt Pilarte on the feet and finish him to have a shot at winning here.
We know I love targeting the first fight of the night and this is no different. Pilarte is my top play of the week for all formats and I will have him in at least half my lineups and likely in cash as well. I think he is better everywhere and can win on the feet or the ground and finish either place as well. I may also use Colares but that would be purely a hedge to my Pilarte exposure. If you aren’t heavy on Pilarte then I don’t think you need to use Colares either unless you think he gets the win here.
Winner – Domingo Pilarte via 2nd round Submission
Jin Soo Son $9,100 vs Mario Bautista $7,100
Jin Soo Son
Age: 26
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Korean Zombie MMA
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 106
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -210
Jin Soo Son was a virtual unknown to most MMA fans prior to his UFC debut. He accepted a short notice fight against top 5 Contender Petr Yan and fared well. He had a back & forth war with him, winning fight of the night, and showing a crazy chin. He is a Korean Zombie protégée & looks to be a solid prospect. Son is a wild man & likes to plant his feet & go to war. He has a wide stance but is flat footed ready to explode forward. He has a very good jab, and a nice straight-right hand. He has fast one-twos & closes the distance with punches quickly. He wants to go to war on the feet. When he gets hit he will taunt opponents & stick his chin out there. He will try to coax opponents into trading with him where he has big power. He also has excellent takedown feints he will use to create openings for punches. He has very good left hooks. He will throw wide hooks & uppercuts in combination in close range. He doesn’t throw many kicks, but he has good leg kicks and decent body and head kicks. Son is very hittable & flat footed, so opponents who can stick & move will give him trouble. He does have great forward pressure & a tremendous chin, so I anticipate him breaking a lot of opponents. He has 4 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Jin Soo Son looks like a very good grappler to me. In the clinch he is extremely strong. He hand fights very well, throwing hard elbows & knees. He has a great Muay Thai plum & nasty knees, especially to the body. He will control opponents against the cage & try to wear them out. He has great timing on single & double legs & was able to take Yan down multiple times. I have seen videos of him rolling with Augusto Mendes, a multi-time Jiu-Jitsu world champion. Son will stand up in opponent’s guards & try to throw the legs to the side, go to side control or land big ground & pound. He is good at taking the back from there or going to mount. He is also very hard to take & hold down. He can finish the fight with ground & pound & is improving his submission game. Son has two submissions & has never been submitted. I feel he will be someone who will be very hard to tap & would probably rather go to sleep. Son has great cardio & I’m excited for his future in this division.
Mario Bautista
Age: 26
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 0–1
Fight Matrix: 326
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +175
Mario Bautista had a rude awakening to the UFC as well. He fought another title contender in Cory Sandhagen and was submitted in the first round. He was undefeated prior & training out of the MMA Lab. Bautista is a long striker, & pretty good at putting combinations together. He has a good jab, and a strong, straight-right hand. His one-two is nice & he will use a left hook to straight-right hand combination as well. He has a solid, counter left hook. He has a nice overhand right in the pocket, but he tends to duck his head when he throws it leaving him open for uppercuts. He will dig to the body with hooks & then go up to the head. He is light on his feet & has ok in & out movement. He can close a lot of distance with his punches, and fighters are surprised at how far out he can hit them. He has solid head movement in the pocket & will slip & rip. He has decent leg kicks, & quick body & head kicks. He can get his kicks caught at times & they aren’t very powerful. He also allows fighters to back him up too easily & he needs to be aggressive in this fight. He has 2 KO/TKO’s and is definitely more of a volume striker.
Bautista is an ok grappler, but definitely needs to improve in that area. He has good takedown defense in the clinch & will dig double underhooks and land nice knees to the body. He has ok takedown defense overall, but fighters can back him up and take him down against the cage. When he gets taken down I have seen him held down, but he looks decent off his back. He will attack from his guard and looks to like to scramble. He seems like a fighter who likes to flow on the mat. In this fight I think he needs to keep it standing. He will look for takedowns of his own and shoot double and single legs. He can shoot the takedowns from too far out at times without setting them up. He has 3 submissions in his career. Bautista needs to stick & move. He has to try to use leg kicks & straight punches. He has better movement & is probably faster, but he can’t stand in front of Son. I think he should look to keep the fight on the feet & outpoint Son.
Jin Soo Son burst onto the scene by having a FOTN performance against one of the top guys in the division in Petr Yan. He showed some solid skills and one heck of a chin. He is the lowest level guy Yan has fought in the UFC and he gave him his toughest test yet and landed some clean shots that would put away most guys. Bautista also fought one of the top guys in Cory Sandhagen in his UFC debut and he was finished in the first round. I do think the line has some recency bias baked in with the outcomes of those two fights, but I will slightly favor Jin Soo Son here because of how impressive he looked, and he should come into this fight even more improved. I think he will look to keep this fight standing and if he can land clean then he could put Bautista away. I think he will be the one landing the harder shots and pushing forward, so I do favor him on the feet where I think most of this fight takes place. Bautista is an aggressive fighter too though, so this could be a fun one and I think he should look to land takedowns in this fight. If he can keep this close on the feet he could end up winning rounds with takedowns. I think the line is a bit wide here, but I will take the favorite to win on the judges’ scorecards.
On DraftKings, Bautista is my preferred play here. I think he will be the one looking to grapple, and it will be a lot easier for him to pay off his salary in a win than it will be with Son. I am not against using Son here, but I don’t see him making more than 1-2 lineups where I do think Bautista makes more than that with 20 lineups and if I was only making 10 he would still be in my player pool. I think Bautista could be a sneaky GPP play here but I don’t hate him in cash games either. Son would be a GPP only play for me but if you have a strong read on him getting the win then I am not against that, I just won’t have him in my cash lineup. I think he wins the fight but I don’t see him getting 10x in this fight so that is why I prefer Bautista here.
Winner – Jin Soo Son via Split Decision
Ray Borg $9,300 vs Gabriel Silva $6,900
Ray Borg
Age: 25
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: 63”
Gym: Fit NHB
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 5-4
Fight Matrix: 93
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -225
Ray Borg had a very unsuccessful return to the octagon in March. He missed weight & lost a close decision. This is a make or break fight for his career in my opinion. Borg is going to want to grapple in this match. Borg is a very fast, explosive athlete, and an elite wrestler. His striking has gotten a lot better, but it looked to regress in his last match. He relies on a lot of blitzes. He likes to throw overhand right, straight-left combinations. He has a nice check left hook. He has a very nice lead uppercut & it is very fast. He will throw a left hook to a leg kick combination. He does a great job of faking single legs & throwing uppercuts or faking double legs and throwing overhand rights. In his last fight, he looked much slower & a bit doughy at 135. He was using a high guard & head movement to just walk into the clinch. Borg only has career TKO but does pack some power in his punches. He has a good chin & is a tough fighter who won’t be easy to put away.
Ray Borg is an elite wrestler. He is very explosive & has great double legs. He is very fast closing the distance & sets his shots up very well with his strikes. He has nice single leg shots & good chain wrestling. He will get in on a single leg, take the back standing & land a suplex. He will also get in on a double transition to a body lock & dump opponents. He will look to hold opponents against the fence & search for singles & doubles. He landed multiple slam double legs in his last match and looked to jump on the back. On top, he is excellent. He throws a large volume of ground & pound is always looking to move to dominant positions. He has heavy elbows on top & can cut opponents. He has a great mount & is always looking to take the back. He is very good at taking the back as opponents stand up. He will attack with guillotines & darces & then quickly scramble to take the back. He is very good in scrambles & almost always ends up in top position. He has good arm triangles & rear naked chokes. In his last fight he struggled to hold Kenney down, but instead was controlled & taken down himself. He will attack with omaplatas, and armbars off his back to create scrambles. He has proven he can hang on the ground with elite fighters on the mat & win such as Jussier Formiga. He looked in much better shape to me at 125 lbs. He has 6 career submissions, and has been submitted one time. Borg needs to try to use his speed in this fight, use his in & out movement, level change, feints to strike a bit & then take him down. When he gets on top he needs to look to take the back & get the submission. He can’t allow Silva to win the scrambles & just get back up depleting his gas tank. He can’t be sloppy trying to take the back & end up on bottom. I think Borg can take Silva’s back if he cements position & needs to have a dominant performance here. He has to remind people his best days are ahead of him.
Gabriel Silva
Age: 24
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: Team Nogueira
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 94
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +185
Gabriel Silva will be making his UFC debut fighting out of Brazil. Silva hasn’t been very active & only having one fight in the last year & a half. This will be Silva’s first drop down to BW since 2015. Silva looks like a short, compact fighter who likes to get inside & let his hands go. He will switch stances well & pressures forward. He is pretty explosive. He will usually start southpaw where he has a nice jab & nasty straight-left hand. He will throw one-two, left hook combos & likes to rip the body. He has a very nice overhand left. He will use the overhand left to crash into hook combinations. When he moves to orthodox he will wing powerful lead left hooks. He is good at slipping & ducking punches in close range & packs power in close distance. He does look to have fast hands in close range. He can get hit coming inside & doesn’t have great defense. He doesn’t have the longest reach & doesn’t throw kicks, so he has to get inside to be successful. A lot of the fights I was watching he was fighting at 145 lbs, so I imagine he will be much better sized for 135. He is coming off his first fight in the USA & a nice KO win. This is clearly going to be the best fighter he has ever fought though. Silva has 3 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Silva does look to mix it up. He will use his blitz attacks & power punches to fall into takedown attempts. He has a nice single leg takedown. He is powerful even at 145 lbs & when he gets his hands connected on doubles, he lands good slams. On top Silva isn’t great. He doesn’t have good top control & can be put in submissions. I have seen more than one opponent sweep him with leg locks. Silva doesn’t pass well & when he tries to, he is way to deliberate. Fighters can deny the passes or create scrambles to stand up. It is very hard to hold down bigger fighters, but I still don’t think he can take and hold down Borg. He isn’t a submission threat & just has one in his career. I haven’t seen Silva be put on his back or taken down himself & only could find a couple fights on tape. I imagine Borg will be wanting to test the defensive wrestling of Silva. He has never been submitted. Silva should look to keep this fight on the feet, deny the takedowns & win the scrambles. If he can get Borg tired & moving backwards that’s when he can put combinations together. He has power & the better cardio most likely.
Borg is jumping up to 135 lbs here for this fight and Silva is coming down from 145 lbs. I wasn’t able to find many fights of his, but he looks like a brawler/wrestler. Borg is a well-rounded vet and I think his biggest worry would be getting put on his back, but his ground game is the best part of his game, so I would take him to win the grappling exchanges. I do think we see a lot of grappling in this fight and it could be back and forth, but I think Borg is more likely to finish as well. I think Silva has the harder punches and could win on the feet by pushing forward and landing the harder shots, but I don’t see this being a striking match and I think these two will be against the cage or on the mat more than they are standing. I will take Borg here to win a grappling heavy game plan, but I want to see how he looks here at 135 before I would trust him with my money.
This is going to be a dog or pass fight for me on DraftKings because of their salaries. I think Borg is in play with all the possible grappling exchanges but at his price tag I don’t see me being able to afford him. I am more interested in Silva here, but I don’t see me having much of him either because I like other underdogs more. He is very cheap and any win from him would do the job most likely, I just think Borg probably wins with 80 or so points and if that happens this fight won’t help anyone. Overall, this is a fight I will likely fade but I could see Silva making at least 1 lineup if I am making 20.
Winner – Ray Borg via Unanimous Decision
Jennifer Maia $8,200 vs Roxanne Modafferi $8,000
Jennifer Maia
Age: 30
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 64”
Gym: Chute Boxe
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -145
Jennifer Maia earned her first UFC win defeating a tough veteran in Alexis Davis by decision. She now will be in a rematch of a fight she won via split decision. That was a 5-round title fight in Invicta & this fight will just be three rounds. Maia is a come forward striker, who has that heavy Muay Thai Chute Boxe style. She has an active jab. She will throw a one-two combination, or a jab, overhand right combination. She will throw a one-two to a left hook combination. She will mix uppercuts into close range. She is good at slipping punches & countering, usually with her straight or overhand right. She will throw occasional leg & body kicks. She will attack the body with nice jabs & right hooks. She doesn’t throw a lot of variation & really her right hand is her bread & butter. She is at her best when she finds her range, goes forward & lets her right hand go. She can land her straight or overhand right over & over and it’s very accurate. When she’s able to stun fighters, she will swarm with combinations, but overall, she doesn’t throw a ton of volume. She is flat footed & doesn’t move her head much. She can get hit clean with shots. Modafferi had some success with straight punches in the first matchup. She tends to start slow & pick up as fights go on. She doesn’t have much power & only has 3 KO/TKO’s in her career. She has been knocked out only one time & is a tough girl. I do feel her chin isn’t the greatest, she was rocked by a jab by Aga Niedzweidz in a recent Invicta fight.
Maia is a solid grappler, although she was able to defend a majority of Modafferi’s takedowns in the first match. She has good clinch control & will land hard knees to the legs & body. She digs nice double underhooks & will slow the pace of the fight by controlling fighters against the cage. She was able to do that against Liz Carmouche in round one, which is very impressive because Carmouche might be the strongest fighter in the division. She isn’t a wrestler, but she has good takedown defense. She has a strong sprawl and will use it to take top position herself. When she does get taken down she has good get-ups. She will attack in her guard with armbars. She was able to shake Roxanne Modafferi off her back a couple times & take top position. In top position, she isn’t super dangerous with ground & pound. She has 5 career submissions. She has only been submitted one time & is someone who will go to sleep rather than tap.
Roxanne Modafferi
Age: 36
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: Syndicate MMA
From: Nevada
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +125
Roxanne Modafferi is coming off the biggest win of her career. She went to Russia as a 3-1 underdog & took out a Shevchenko. She defeated Antonina Shevchenko with a heavy grappling game plan. She was scheduled to fight in what was arguably a number one contenders fight against Liz Carmouche. Carmouche was pulled in order to fight Valentina Shevchenko for the title. Modafferi will now be getting a rematch of a fight she lost in Invicta. If that fight was three rounds Modafferi would have won. Roxanne has fought 4 fighters who she had lost to previously in rematches & is 3-1. Roxanne is awkward on the feet, she isn’t very athletic and has stiff, slow movements. She has gotten better at accentuating her reach and trying to make her punches long, instead of loopy. She has a solid jab and good head and improved lateral movement. She will throw straight punches, but sometimes struggles to find range and throws at air. She has ok hand speed and can land the straight-right hand. She will throw inside leg kicks, high kicks and tries to be tricky throwing question mark kicks and spinning backfists. She tries to keep high volume and throw a lot of shots. She is much better now at going first & being willing to take a shot to give one. She doesn’t have knockout power, but she has a strong chin and lives up to her nickname of the Happy Warrior. She has only been finished twice by strikes in her career. She will finish fighters when she can get mount position & has 6 KO/TKO’s. She has finished 5 of her last 6 wins 4 by TKO.
Modafferi is a strong grappler showing that off in her last match. She has gotten better at entries for her judo trips and clinch takedowns. She was able to continuously get ahold of Shevchenko in the clinch & take her down. She got a nice double leg takedown against Barb Honchak and has pretty solid timing. When she gets on top, she will land hard, heavy elbows and go for the finish. She probably has the best mount in the division, and when she gets there has phenomenal control and throws hard punches and elbows. She has finished many recent fights this way. She has good submissions like armbars & RNC’s. She can get bullied in the clinch and controlled like she was vs Emily Whitmire and Nicco Montano. She was taken down by Sijara Eubanks multiple times. She doesn’t have great takedown defense, but she is good off her back. She has good armbars, triangles and is active off her back. She can get hit with ground & pound elbows. She slows down as the fight goes on but showed strong cardio in her last fight. She has 6 submissions & been submitted 3 times in her career.
These two fought in Invicta back in 2016 and Maia won a 5-round split decision. If it were a 3-round fight, then Roxy would have won. Maia clearly has the better striking and should have an edge in the striking exchanges. However, Roxy is very aggressive, and she will be throwing volume and pushing forward and that should be enough to keep it close on the feet because I don’t see Maia getting a KO. I think Roxy should look to get takedowns and make this a dirtier fight against the cage and not give Maia space to work with. If she can make this an ugly fight, then I think she wins it. If she is looking to have a 15-minute striking match, then I would take Maia. This is a very close one as the line indicates but I am going to take the underdog here in a back and forth fight and I think she wins with grappling and aggression.
Roxy is my preferred play here and I like her a decent amount for DraftKings. She had her most success in the grappling in her first fight and I love the aggression we see from her and the pace she can set, especially on the ground. I like Roxy in all formats this week and I will probably try to be a bit overweight to the field. I don’t have a lot of interest in Maia, but I won’t rule her out of my lineups, she would just be more if she fit in my last spot, but I would also want to duplicate that lineup and put Roxy in as well. If I was making 10 or less lineups, then Maia would be an easy fade for me. Roxy would be in play though even if I was making 3 lineups and I will probably look to get ~30% or so of her in my lineups.
Winner – Roxanne Modafferi via Split Decision
Klidson Abreu $8,600 vs Sam Alvey $7,600
Klidson Abreu
Age: 26
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 74”
Gym: Evolução Thai MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 49
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -170
Klidson is a bigger LHW missing weight for his last fight. Abreu is also a southpaw. He is a pretty good athlete, closes the distance well, and is going to be trying to get this fight to the ground. Fighters definitely have to respect his power on the feet, but he has holes & is pretty predictable. At range he really only throws left kicks, left hooks & straight-left hands. Against Alvey I see him trying to attack the inside leg with kicks, because it’s been successful on him in the past. He likes to back opponents up with forward pressure, and then close the distance with a left high kick, straight-left hand, or right hook, straight-left hand combination. He will level change after the combo with a double against the cage. Ankalaev, his last opponent, was able to read that & countered with big uppercuts, that badly broke Klidson’s nose. I would look to do the same & test that nose, because it was one of the worst breaks I’ve seen. Klidson really only has success on the feet when an opponent is standing right in front of him, or he backs them up towards the cage. If fighters can control the center, all entries are big, explosive actions, that are easy to see coming. He holds his lead hand low and when he exits he tends to pull back with his chin in the air. I feel if Alvey can back him up near the cage, and throw a right hook, straight-left hand, you could possibly knock him out with the left hand as he pulls back. He has been TKO’d twice before. I have also noticed he is weak to the body.
Abreu’s grappling is definitely the most dangerous part of his game. He has 10 submissions in his 14 wins. He doesn’t have the greatest takedowns in space, but he will try to time double legs. He is good at catching kicks & getting it to the mat that way also. When he uses those combinations to get in on doubles against the cage, he won’t try hard for it. Unless he can easily dump his opponents, he likes to come up into a body lock takedown. He will also try to circle to the side & get suplexes as well as take the back from standing position. Fighters have to be very careful in the clinch with him, because he’s very aggressive. He will lock up rear naked chokes with no hooks in and try to jump in front head locks. On top, he has fast transitions, and is a back packer. He has 5 rear naked choke wins. He will work from the mount also and has great balance. He will get a very high mount & look for armbars. Opponents have had some success taking him down, but he is active off his back with submissions & leg locks. He likes to use omaplatas & leg locks to sweep. He doesn’t have the best cardio, so he won’t be grinding for takedowns all night most likely, and if you can stop some early ones, they probably will come less often.
Sam Alvey
Age: 33
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Team Quest
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 10-7
Fight Matrix: 25
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +150
Sam Alvey has lost back to back fights & needs a win here. He is a veteran by now & everyone is aware of his knockout power. Sam Alvey is what he is at this point in his career. A low output counter striker, who is solely looking to land a hard-right hook and knock you out. He doesn’t throw in combination and very rarely will throw a left hand or kicks. He walks forward and tries to stay in your face. He has one punch KO power and that’s what still makes him dangerous. He was able to get a KO in his LHW debut but hasn’t taken the shots as well as he did at 185. He used to have a great chin and would eat shots to close the distance to get a chance to give his own. He doesn’t have fast feet, and if you use a game plan of hitting from the outside and not getting hit he struggles mightily. Now he has been TKO’d back to back times & needs to change it up a bit.
Sam Alvey is not much of a grappler, but he has good takedown defense, and is dangerous with his submission game. He has a good guillotine that he will attempt when his opponents go in for takedowns. He only has 3 submissions and isn’t very diverse with his submission game. He has just 1 takedown in his entire UFC career, but he has an impressive 84% takedown defense rate. He doesn’t fight in the clinch much either. He has a good chin, and his cardio is fine in his fights because his output is not high. He is going to do what he does and look for the knockout right hand. He needs to stay off his back & keep it standing.
For the most part, this is a striker vs grappler matchup. Abreau does have KO power as well and Alvey has submissions in his arsenal, but overall Alvey looks to keep fights standing and Abreu does not. Alvey is coming off back to back KO losses though so it is possible his chin is fading, and he can’t take the same shots he used to. Alvey is going to look to stuff takedowns, and counter Abreu coming in and try to KO him. Abreu is probably going to look to land takedowns, then control Alvey on the mat and work his way to a submission while landing some GNP. Abreu isn’t a great wrestler though and Alvey stuffs takedowns at an 84% rate. He has also only been submitted one time. On the feet, I expect Alvey to be the aggressor and he should be landing the harder and more accurate shots. I do think he will be able to keep this fight standing and I think we see a knockout in this fight. I am going to take Alvey to get the KO, but Abreu has power and if Alvey’s chin is fading then we could see a rare KO from the BJJ guy. I like the underdog here though and I may look to bet the TKO prop when it is released.
On DraftKings, Smilin’ Sam is my preferred play but this is a GPP only fight. Either guy could get a finish and they both have very low floors, so they are both GPP only fighters in this spot and I will have more Alvey personally. I will have some shots on Abreu as well because he does have big power and if he wins it could be early, but he is going to need a finish to win somebody $25k. If Alvey was the favorite then I would fade him on DraftKings, but as an underdog with a decent KO chance I am interested and will look to go overweight on him. Neither guy fights at a high enough pace for this fight to score well without a finish, but I do think we see a finish here and the FDGTD line is currently -170 so Vegas agrees. I will probably look to have 25% or so Alvey in my lineups and then maybe 10% Abreu. If you want to go more or less on either guy I wouldn’t talk you off it, but this is a fight I think we should target in general for GPPs.
Winner – Sam Alvey via 1st round (T)KO
Irene Aldana $8,400 vs Raquel Pennington $7,800
Irene Aldana
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Lobo Gym MMA
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -135
Irene Aldana is looking to take out another noticeable name after taking out Bethe Correia earlier this year. Aldana has won 3 consecutive fights & just got her first UFC finish in her last match. Aldana is a slick boxer who strikes at range and controls distance very well. She has great footwork & lateral movement. She has a nasty jab, and heavy leg kicks. She has a nice one-two, and her straight-right hand is very fast and accurate. She will throw nice counter left hooks. She will throw a jab, straight-right, uppercut combination. She will also throw an uppercut to straight-right hand combo. She is very fluid with her combinations, has good power and hand speed. Aldana doesn’t move her head when she throws much & can get hit with jabs & hooks entering range. She isn’t great fighting backwards, she will do a lot of leaning back & covering up. When Correia went forward & threw combinations she had a lot of success. She is heavy on her lead leg & can be leg kicked. She also can be hit to the body because she uses a high guard. She is the significantly faster fighter with her foot speed in this matchup & she needs to try to fight long. She isn’t much of a kicker, but she has good leg kicks, and will occasionally land a body kick. She was throwing more front kicks to the body in her last match, and she should throw those here. She is good at staying in the pocket & countering with combinations. Aldana doesn’t hit as hard moving backwards, and fighters are willing to eat her shots to give one. She has 5 career KO/TKO’s. She has been TKO’d twice. I think she is a bit on the chinny side, but she’s very tough.
Aldana is very physically strong, and good in the clinch with knees and elbows. She won’t go for takedowns very often. She is just 2-4 on takedowns in her UFC career. She has solid takedown defense and does a great job of digging double underhooks, reversing the takedown and taking top position. She has strong elbows on top and will attack with submissions as well. She likes to take the back & has solid rear naked chokes. In her last match, she sprawled on a bad takedown attempt of Bethe Correia, took the back & got the rear naked choke. She is good in the scrambles and usually lands on top. She can be controlled against the cage & taken down by fighters who can set up takedowns with strikes. She has great get-ups though & overall is a good grappler. She has good cardio and will push for all three rounds. She is a finisher and has finished 7 of her 8 wins. She has three submissions all by rear naked choke. I see Aldana trying to use her speed, foot movement, jabs & straight punches to keep Pennington on the back foot. Similar to her last match, keep her jab out there but not stay in front of her & piece her up while moving. In the clinch I think she will be the weaker fighter, but she is aggressive & may be able to land well there. Aldana needs to maintain distance & keep the fight more in the center than along the cage. She has to control the pace & keep it a technical fight.
Raquel Pennington
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Altitude MMA
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +115
Raquel Pennington needs a win badly here. She has lost back to back fights & hasn’t won since returning from her gruesome leg injury. She missed weight for her last match & didn’t look in the best shape. She did face the two top ranked fighters in the division & will be getting a significant step down in competition for this one. Pennington is getting some solid work in the lead up to this fight training with Olympic boxer Mikaela Mayer. Pennington is a tough, gritty girl who is pretty well-rounded. Pennington has a good jab, a good right hook and does a good job of controlling distance and staying just on the outside of opponent’s punches. She has a nasty jab. She will use it to control distance very well. She will add some leg and body kicks into her combinations. She has a nice uppercut in close. Pennington is very durable, and when she gets hit she likes to try to come forward and get it back immediately. She needs to be in close to be effective, as she is not a big kicker and can struggle to find her range from the outside. She will dig to the body with shots as well, and she loves to get in wars. She will definitely take a shot to give her own and try to wear fighters down as the fight goes longer. She was broken a bit in her last two fights and took her first KO/TKO loss of her career vs Amanda Nunes. She took some massive shots in both matches and has a very solid chin. She doesn’t have big power herself, and only has one TKO in her career.
Pennington likes to fight in the clinch, and fight in dirty boxing range. She has good, short punches, elbows and knees. She has good head positioning, and she will trap a wrist and throw punches with the other. She likes to land hard knees to the body, and she wears fighters out in the clinch. Pennington doesn’t have great wrestling, but she is strong and gritty. She has a decent double leg, and she does a good job of timing it in the center. If she doesn’t get the takedown, she will throw shots on the break and I see her trying to do that in this match. On top, Pennington has solid ground & pound, but her go to moves are chokes. She has a nasty guillotine and will attack with chokes such as bulldog chokes. She is opportunistic and can snatch up the neck and finish a fight very quickly. She has solid takedown defense, and she will attack with the guillotine when fighters shoot in on her. She has 4 career submissions and been submitted just one time herself. I think Pennington will be trying to go forward, get in the clinch & use combinations to back her up. If she can get her jab going, back up Aldana, use it to get in on her legs against the cage & beat her up, I think she can control her there. If she goes forward with combos, she will be effective & land. She has to go first & make it a fast pace fight.
This is going to be Aldana’s toughest fight to date and it will be a step down for Pennington. I do think this will be a fun fight and it should mainly take place on the feet. Both women are decent strikers, but I think Aldana will prefer to keep it striking and I think she will be able to control where the fight takes place. Pennington might look to get the fight to the ground but she only lands takedowns at a 28% accuracy and Aldana has defended them at a 95% rate. I think Aldana will be able to stuff takedowns and use her footwork to stay away and keep this fight at range. I think she is the better overall striker and she will be landing more volume as well. She is very hittable though, so I think Rocky will look to make this fight more of a brawl and take the space away from Aldana. I think she will need to grind against the cage a lot or get a KO to win, but Aldana doesn’t always fight the way I think she should, so it is possible. I do like Aldana here though and I think she picks her apart on the feet and wins a clear decision. I think it should be 30-27 but I could see her throwing a round away at some point, so it could be 29-28, but I think she is the rightful favorite and I think Rocky could have lost a lot of confidence in her last two fights.
On DraftKings, Aldana is my preferred play. I like her salary and I think she can pay off $8.4k in a decision victory with the volume she throws on the feet. The worry is Rocky putting her against the fence for periods of time and not racking up any points when that happens, but at range I think she is going to piece up Rocky and on average she lands 6.32 sig strikes per minute. I won’t be too heavily exposed to her here, but she is in play in all formats for me. I don’t see Rocky making my player pool, but she could win this fight and possibly even get a finish, so she is in play and I wouldn’t talk people off her. I just think this is Aldana’s fight to lose and if Rocky doesn’t get a finish then I don’t see her scoring well even if she does win.
Winner – Irene Aldana via Unanimous Decision
Alex Caceres $8,800 vs Steven Peterson $7,400
Alex Caceres
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Florida
UFC Record: 9-10-1
Fight Matrix: 120
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -135
Alex “Bruce Leeroy” Caceres was submitted quickly in his last match. He welcomed Kron Gracie to the octagon & lost via rear naked choke. This will be Caceres’s 21st fight in the UFC, and he has seen it all by now. He has been fading a bit lately & only collecting wins against bottom of the heap opponents. Caceres is a dynamic, open southpaw striker. Caceres tries to fight long. He has a decent jab & quick straight-left hand. His one-twos aren’t bad & his left-hand packs some pop. He has solid head movement & he can slip & rip with it effectively. When opponents pressure him heavy he struggles in the pocket. He isn’t tight with his punches & throws very wide hooks leaving him susceptible to counters. He has nice leg kicks but throws more round kicks to the body. He has nice front leg sidekicks to the body as well. He will throw two strikes at the same time with the round kick to the body. I haven’t really seen many people do this, but he will throw a left hook or straight-left at the same time as he’s throwing the body kick. He will throw a lot of dynamic attacks like superman punches & spinning attacks. He will throw spinning backfists & spinning kicks to the body & head. He used to be much more active with those, but in recent fights he hasn’t been throwing them nearly as often. Caceres is flat footed when he strikes & while he moves a lot, he doesn’t stick & move well. Instead, he will circle, land a shot, then plant his feet & rely on head & body movement to slip & return. He holds his hands very low & when he strikes or spins he leaves himself very susceptible to being hit. He gets tagged in almost all his fights and has taken a ton of damage over his career. He gets hurt & dropped a lot in fights, and I question his durability. He does have great heart & recoverability. You will have to put him out to stop him from fighting back. He has only been knocked out one time in his career. Caceres doesn’t have big power & fighters seem to be willing to eat one to give one. Caceres only has 3 KO/TKO’s & knocked out in only one in 20 UFC fights.
Alex Caceres grappling isn’t terrible. Against high level grapplers he is always going to struggle with submission defense. He gives his back trying to stand up & that tendency cost him again in his last match against Kron Gracie. Caceres will be offensive with his wrestling in fights & has average body locks & doubles. He has good back takes when he’s in top position but is very aggressive & doesn’t have great top control. He flows well on top & isn’t bad in the scrambles. I don’t think he will be able to take Steven Peterson down. His takedown defense isn’t very good. He allows himself to get backed up & his spinning & jumping makes it easy to off balance him. When fighters do get on his legs he has decent balance, but he can’t chain wrestle. He will try to jump on guillotines instead of defending the takedown. Caceres has a fairly active guard & a nice triangle choke. He will create scrambles and work his way up to his feet against weaker grapplers. Caceres’ main problem is when he gets taken down, he gives his back. His get-ups aren’t bad, but it gets exploited time & again against good back takers. He has lost via rear naked choke in the UFC 5 times. He has been submitted 7 times overall. He does have 7 submissions himself. Caceres fought a very similar fighter to Peterson in his last match & got very gassed in round 3. I think Peterson has better wrestling & submission skills than Bravo, so Caceres can’t get that tired & taken down. For Caceres he’s going to want to catch Peterson with strikes as he’s closing the distance. He needs to stay long, land a few shots & get out. I even think he can slip & rip in the pocket as well, but it gives Peterson more of a chance to land. He has to deny the takedown attempts & be ready to push for three rounds without getting tired.
Steven Peterson
Age: 29
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 158
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +115
Steven Peterson is coming off a comprehensive loss where he was beat down by Luis Pena. Peterson is extremely tough, but at only 1-2 in the UFC, a win is imperative here. Peterson is a dog & all about pressure. He will throw leg kicks. He throws nice jabs. He likes to throw one-twos. He will throw overhand rights to close the distance. He will throw a right hook to a straight-left hand combination. When he gets inside, he will attack with hooks & uppercuts. He will throw multiple overhand rights in a row when opponents are near the cage. He will throw front & round kicks to the body. He will throw jumping front kicks, and superman punches. He doesn’t move his head & will just walk forward on straight lines. He has a fantastic chin and will walk through shots with no issue. He has no problem taking damage to give his own & welcomes a brawl. The problem is he has been a punching bag in his UFC fights. He is slow & really struggles to get inside. He will stand in the pocket & wing shots. He has 4 career KO/TKO’s & has only been finished once by strikes.
Peterson is a grinder, and a solid grappler. He is good at controlling opponents against the cage & stays active there. He will throw nice knees & elbows. He has solid body lock takedowns. He has decent single legs. He jumps on guillotine. When he takes top position, he is very heavy. He will methodically pass to better positions. In half guard, he will throw short elbows & attack with arm triangles. He will get the crucifix position if he moves to side control. He will throw hard elbows to the head & knees to the body from side control. He has solid back takes & good control. He will soften opponents up with nice elbows before trying to lock in the RNC. If he gets on top of Caceres, I feel he will be able to control & do damage. He has 8 career submissions. He has never been submitted. He has great cardio & an unbreakable will. Peterson is going to have to get inside & back Caceres up. He is going to have the cardio advantage & needs to back Peterson up with his hands & then get in on his legs against the cage. If he can get takedowns & get Caceres tired I think he will eventually take the back & get the rear naked choke.
This is a close matchup. On the feet, Caceres is better at range, more accurate, and has better defense. Peterson is the better brawler, probably has more punching power, and should be looking to close the distance and throw volume. On the ground, Peterson is more likely to wrestle and get it there, but Caceres can be dangerous off his back with triangles, so maybe Peterson won’t want to go there. I do think Peterson should get the win though if he comes in with a good game plan and can avoid submissions. Caceres isn’t as good at brawling and that should be what Peterson looks to do on the feet. I also think Peterson can win with takedowns and GNP, whether that be a TKO or a decision win. I think if he can avoid getting knocked out with a head kick or submitted on the ground, he should win this fight. I am not sure what the method of victory will be, but I like Peterson here as an underdog.
On DraftKings, Peterson is the preferred play for me and I will have a full fade on Caceres. I like Peterson’s price and I will try to go overweight in GPPs if I can, but I think he could be somewhat popular with the line shifting in his favor. I do like him a lot as a cash game play though because he has been putting up 40+ points in losses and I am totally ok with that for cash if I can hit on my other spots. I love his floor here and I am picking him to win, so I want some exposure to him and I am not against using him in cash and going overweight in GPPs. It is a bit risky but it’s not out of play for me personally. I just don’t see Caceres on the optimal lineup unless he finishes so he is a full fade for me in all formats.
Winner – Steven Peterson via Unanimous Decision
Ben Rothwell $9,000 vs Andrei Arlovski $7,200
Ben Rothwell
Age: 37
Height: 6’4
Weight: 263
Reach: 78.5”
Gym: Rothwell MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 6-5
Fight Matrix: 53
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -190
Rothwell is very big, very durable & when he hits people they feel it. Rothwell has a very awkward style. He stands almost square in his stance & due to that is powerful from both sides. He will switch stances as well & his movement is very hard to get a beat on. He likes to keep his hands open & extended due to his reach. He is able to hand fight & get openings for his shots. He has a pretty nice jab. He will throw nice, straight punches & powerful hooks. He closes the distances with straight punches nicely. He will land nasty right hooks to the body. He will throw the right hook to the body a couple times, and then throw uppercuts to the head. He has very nice uppercuts. He likes to lean towards the right a lot, even as he walks forward, keeping his head totally off-center line. He throws everything into his shots & throws hammers. He will throw heavy low kicks & front kicks to the body. Rothwell has a tricky head kick & has a KO via head kick. Something that will benefit him in this fight is his forward pressure & volume. He will almost undoubtedly be the one going forward throwing more strikes. He has the ability to take ungodly punishment & come back to get the finish. He was getting beat up badly by Overeem before turning the tables with a big KO.
Rothwell is not a wrestler, but I do think he’d be the more likely of the two to grapple. He will try to close the distance and get double underhooks. He will get the single collar clinch, & he throws nice uppercuts there. I haven’t seen him get in top position very much lately, but I imagine with his size & power he’d be heavy on top and hit hard. He has very good takedown defense & a super dangerous gogo choke. He is the only fighter to ever submit Josh Barnett, and it’s dangerous to shoot on Rothwell. Rothwell is very odd to fight. He is extremely durable & moves very awkwardly. I see him being the more active fighter & the one going forward more.
Andrei Arlovski
Age: 40
Height: 6’4
Weight: 248
Reach: 77”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Belarus
UFC Record: 16-13
Fight Matrix: 35
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 1-3-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +165
This is a rematch of a fight Arlovski won via knockout, but a lot has changed since then. He just can’t win a decision. I thought he won his last match but was given a loss. Arlovski still is a good striker. He has a solid jab, and nice leg kicks. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs as well. He has a nice straight & right hook lead. He will throw a right hook, left uppercut, right hook combination. He has nice spinning backfists. He has solid round kicks to the body & head. He was throwing hook kicks to the body & head in his last match. Arlovski has been very low volume lately. He does a lot of waiting & tries to counter as opponents open themselves up. His last four fights could have gone either way & none have gone to him.
Arlovski likes to grapple more now than early in his career. When fighters get inside on him, he likes to crash into the clinch & try to push opponents against the cage. He does a good job of keeping opponents there & getting a chance to rest. He has a good trip takedown, but his top game & control is not great. He can be taken down himself, but he has good get-ups & overall strong takedown defense. He can get gassed out in long grappling exchanges especially in the clinch. I don’t see either fighter looking to get many takedowns.
This is a matchup between two Heavyweight fighters who have been fighting for 20 years each and have almost 100 total fights. Both guys are primarily strikers and they have a combined 44 knockouts between them. I expect this fight to stay standing and if either guy looks for takedowns I would think that would be Rothwell. Either fighter could end this fight with one punch in any round, but I don’t expect a high-volume fight and I think this will look like a sparring match where they don’t hold back. At this point in their careers, I don’t expect anything new from either of them but Rothwell is the younger, bigger, and stronger guy so I have to favor him. I think he is more likely to get a knockout but if this goes to the scorecards we could see a very close fight that could go either way. I don’t think there is any value in Rothwell at this current line, but he is going to be my pick to get the win here and I think this go all 3 rounds.
On DraftKings, Arlovski is my preferred play. I do not love this fight though and I might even full fade it. I do think Arlovski can win this fight though and he is cheap, so that is why he is my preferred play. With Rothwell, he is KO or bust for DraftKings at his salary and we really need that KO to be early. I don’t really want to invest in that myself but if you think he does get that early KO then he should be in your player pool and maybe even in your GPP core. He is a GPP only guy though. Arlovski is playable in all formats but I could see him winning with a 55-point score and that won’t really help us in GPPs, so I might full fade him because I like other underdogs more in terms of winning and DK ceilings.
Winner – Ben Rothwell via Split Decision
Alex Hernandez $8,900 vs Francisco Trinaldo $7,300
Alexander Hernandez
Age: 26
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Ohana Jiu-Jitsu
From: Texas
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -210
Alexander Hernandez needs to bounce back after a humbling loss to Donald Cerrone. He was talking a ton of shit pre-fight and had to eat it all when Cowboy finished him. At 26 years old it could be a good thing he lost if he can use it as a learning lesson. He is fighting in his hometown of San Antonio, Texas & is the favorite coming in here. Hernandez is part of the new generation & a very talented fighter. He is a super-fast starter & very aggressive from the start. He will go for the finish right from the opening bell. He has had mixed success with that. He knocked out Beneil Dariush in less than one minute, but his aggression cost him vs Cowboy. Hernandez has great movement. He keeps a wide stance and does a great job of using smart forward pressure. He is very good at cutting off the cage & staying in opponent’s faces. He has nice inside leg kicks & front kicks to the legs & body. He will throw nice rear leg head kicks. He has a very nice straight-right hand and will crash with hook combinations after he lands it. He will throw the straight-right hand as a counter as well. He likes to throw a rear leg body or head kick, to a right hook combination. He does a great job of switching stances mid combination after he lands a straight punch. He will land a straight-right hand, switch stances & leap into a powerful left hook. Hernandez’s aggression & forward pressure on the feet is what he needs to bring. He can sometimes get a bit over aggressive & leave himself vulnerable for counters. He has a great chin & took some absolute bombs in his last match. He suffered his first TKO loss in his last fight. He has 4 KO/TKO’s & big power.
Hernandez is an excellent grappler. He is very strong in the clinch, and muscles opponents around. He will control fighters against the cage and throw good knees and elbows. He has great double leg & body lock takedowns. He is very good at using his strikes to get inside & he closes the distance very quickly. It’s hard to defend the clinch entry because he will also come in with the hooks & it’s hard to see which one is coming. He has good doubles against the cage. When he takes opponents down, he does a great job of turking the legs & not allowing opponents to use their full guard. He will try to slowly move to mount with the legs turked. He will work in opponent’s guard with short punches to the body and head. He likes to take the back also & go for rear naked chokes. In this fight, he needs to make Trinaldo work in the clinch, and play it safe. He needs a win here. He needs to get Trinaldo down, work the body, put his weight on him & make him work to stand back up. He is excellent in the scrambles & very intelligent in BJJ positions. He can be swept & was reversed a couple times by OAM. He is hard to submit & isn’t going to tap quickly. He has two submissions, both rear naked chokes & has never been submitted. Hernandez needs to use his speed to be in & out, make Trinaldo miss wide, get in on the legs & push him to the cage. I feel he is going to have a huge speed advantage both with his hands & feet. If he can clinch up Trinaldo, lean on him and make him work, he will tire him out & make him less dangerous as the fight goes on. I think if he can slow cook Trinaldo on the ground he could win a decision or get the late finish.
Francisco Trinaldo
Age: 40
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Constrictor Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 13-5
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +175
Francisco Trinaldo has had a lot of trouble getting a fight in 2019. He has had 3 opponents pull out of scheduled bouts with him this year, including Alexander Hernandez in January. Trinaldo is coming off the devastating knockout of Evan Dunham, but at 40 years old time is of the essence. Trinaldo is a southpaw striker & true veteran. He is a powerhouse who is always going forward. Trinaldo likes to back opponents up & try to push them towards the cage. He has a nasty overhand left that he will throw with big power. He will go to the body with the overhand left as well. He has a very nice round kick to the body as well. He will land the overhand left & then crash with a right hook or straight-right hand to a left hook combination. He has a good right hook over the top. He will throw spinning backfists & back kicks at times. He has good rear leg head kicks. He is always cocked & when he gets hit he likes to plant his feet & fire back. He will counter with heavy hooks over the top & hard body shots. He is good at catching kicks & returning with counters as well. He likes to plant his feet when he throws & if fighters can keep the movement going, land & angle, he’s very low output. He barely was able to connect at all on James Vick & struggles to get inside on long fighters or fighters with solid footwork & movement. He is definitely a counter fighter & looks to make the cage small, front & counter when opponents come in. He was throwing an excellent counter knee when Evan Dunham was shooting takedowns or trying to get inside. He ultimately landed a brutal knee to the body that finished the fight. I definitely think Trinaldo has slowed a bit & isn’t as fast with his reactions. He looks like his chin is a bit diminished to me. He gets wobbled with shots a lot now. Trinaldo has still never been finished by strikes in 29 appearances. Trading with him isn’t a smart option & fighters respect his power so he’s hard to finish standing. Trinaldo throws everything full power & will even off balance himself with how hard he throws. This can be a detriment, but it makes him super dangerous. He has 8 career KO/TKO’s
Trinaldo is a very strong fighter with solid overall grappling skills. He is a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu, with decent wrestling. He will rarely go for takedowns, but he has a solid blast double & takedowns against the cage. He is explosive & hard to stop when he gets in on the legs. When he has opponents against the cage he is very good. He has nice knees to the body and will trap the wrist & throw heavy elbows to the head. He is very good at exiting the clinch with strikes. He really battered Paul Felder & Yancy Medeiros in the clinch. His takedown defense has improved substantially over his UFC tenure. He is a brick wall & just very physically strong when fighters crash into him. He has very good double underhooks he will dig, and an excellent sprawl. He is just extremely strong also, and just shrugs opponents off him. He will look for darces & guillotines as opponents go for takedowns against the cage. He will snap opponents down with the front head lock & go for anacondas, darces and guillotines. He has nice chokes from this position. He still can be taken down by fighters who can use their strikes to set the takedowns up or chain wrestle. He was taken down in the clinch vs James Vick. Trinaldo does have excellent get-ups & is hard to control on the ground. When you force him to grapple though, he tends to get tired & it’s a smart game plan for Hernandez to make Trinaldo work a bit in the grappling realm. Trinaldo has been submitted 3 times in his career. He has 5 submissions, most being arm triangles. He hasn’t had a submission since 2014 & really doesn’t use his grappling offensively all too much. When he gets top position, he does have pretty brutal elbows, but Evan Dunham was able to scramble right back up to his feet when Trinaldo got him down in his last fight. Trinaldo doesn’t have a lot of tricks up his sleeve. He is going to come forward, try to make the cage small & let go with that overhand left & right hook. He will dig to the body, probably mix in a couple head kicks & try to get the knockout. He needs to be able to cut Hernandez off & can’t allow him to just dance around him or take him down. Trinaldo has to get Hernandez emotional & aggressive and make him pay for it.
This is going to be a good test to see how good Hernandez is. I think he is a similar fighter to Trinaldo, but he is the young guy with less experience, going against a powerhouse who has been around for a while and is now 40 years old. If this was Trinaldo from a few years ago then I think this would be a tough test for Hernandez because these two match up close in styles to where I don’t think there would be many advantages for either side. Now, I have to expect Trinaldo to start falling off soon but the big difference in this fight is the speed and volume from Hernandez. A younger Trinaldo could have matched that, but now I think he is going to have to rely on a knockout to beat a guy like Hernandez because I think he will be the faster guy throwing strikes at a higher rate. I also think he is more likely to get the KO himself. Trinaldo still has the power to KO most guys in the game but I have to lean with the young and hungry fighter here and I think he knocks Trinaldo out at some point in this fight.
On DraftKings, Hernandez is my preferred play here. I like his price tag and I think he has a solid ceiling. I think he is playable in all formats and I will look to go overweight in GPPs. I think Trinaldo is in play for GPPs as well but similarly to Vick, I like too many underdogs for me to have any real exposure to him. Maybe 1-2 lineups but those would be more hedge lineups to my Hernandez exposure. Hernandez will be one of my 3-4 highest owned guys this week and I think he could finish on the feet or the ground. I also think he could rack up multiple takedowns and advances on his way to a decision. I also don’t love a lot of the $9k fighters this week so I would rather save money and move down to Hernandez.
Winner – Alex Hernandez via 3rd round (T)KO
Dan Hooker $8,500 vs James Vick $7,700
Dan Hooker
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Combat Academy
From: New Zealand
UFC Record: 7-4
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -135
Dan Hooker had his 4-fight win streak snapped at the hands of Edson Barboza. It was a pretty brutal fight where Hooker took huge damage. He will be looking to get back on track here vs another lanky striker in James Vick. Hooker has a great jab and a nice straight-right hand. he uses great movement, angles, and will keep fighters on the end of his punches. He switches stances a lot and can jab off of both stances making him tricky. He also will switch stance mid combination, and throw straight punches when he sees angles to catch opponents coming in. He was able to overwhelm Burns with his precision and hurt him early. Burns was very deliberate in that fight and easy to see coming in, and this is a much harder matchup. He has great kicks; nice leg kicks, great round and snap kicks to the body and nice head kicks. He has a really nice snap front kick. He also has a great lead knee that he’s knocked out Ross Pearson and Jim Miller with. He is a vet and does a great job of picking up the pace as the fight goes on with great cardio. He has 5 KO/TKO’s, most by head kick. He was finished by strikes for the first time in his career in his last match. He took an ungodly amount of damage to all parts of the body. His legs were battered, he got dropped several times & was finished with body shots.
Hooker is a solid grappler, but not much of a wrestler. He will try to close the distance and get the fight against the cage. He will try to get singles and double legs. He also has good clinch trips, and his height gives him an advantage in those positions. He does a good job of getting the back when he gets on top, he has good control, and long arms which he can find a choke with. His takedown defense is not great, but he has an awesome guillotine he will counter with when fighters attempt takedowns, and he has a great squeeze. He has 7 career submissions. He is susceptible to being beat up and submitted if he’s put on his back and has been submitted twice. Vick is the better grappler & bigger, stronger fighter.
James Vick
Age: 32
Height: 6’3
Weight: 155
Reach: 76”
Gym: Team Lloyd Irving
From: Texas
UFC Record: 12-4
Fight Matrix: 26
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +115
James Vick after starting his UFC career 9-1 hasn’t won in over a year. He has dropped back to back fights and needs a win to stay relevant in the division. Vick has good movement & throws nice, long shots. He has a good jab both to the head & body, and a nice straight-left hand. He will throw one-twos down the middle. He does a good job of doubling up on the jab. He will also feint the jab & throw the straight-left hand. He has a decent right hook. He knocked Joe Duffy out with a nasty uppercut as he closed the distance. He will throw nice inside, outside leg kicks along with front kicks to the body & head. He has a really nice left kick to the body. He will throw sidekicks to the body & head as well. He has nice spinning back kicks to the body & head. He will throw nice step-in knees to the body & head. He has strong flying knees as well. When he throws the knees, he leaves his chin straight up in the air & can get countered. He has good lateral movement, and distance control. He will slide back & land straight-lefts, and his counters are usually the shots that hurt opponents. He can back himself up to the cage too much & he has a tendency to stand very tall after he gets hit. Justin Gaethje was able to exploit that, land a huge overhand right and knocked him out cold. It was a devastating knockout, and you have to questions Vick’s chin at this point. He also stands heavy on his lead leg & Paul Felder was able to exploit that. He throws a heavy volume of strikes & has a great style to win decisions. He has 4 KO/TKO’s in his career, but 2 in his last 3 wins so he’s finding his power. He has been KO/TKO’d 3 times.
Vick is a good grappler. He has good takedown defense, and if you do take him down he is dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu. He has excellent chokes, guillotines, darces, anacondas, and his long limbs help him lock in chokes. He is strong in the clinch, landing nice knees & elbows. He is hard to takedown there as well because of his height. He is more of a defensive grappler. He doesn’t shoot takedowns or work in the clinch much. He has 5 career submissions & never been submitted in his career. I doubt this fight will hit the ground & it will most likely be a stand-up fight. He has great cardio & can go all three rounds easy. Vick is 8-0 in Texas & that should help his confidence a bit coming off 2 straight losses.
This should be a fun fight between two of the tallest guys in the division. Both guys are well-rounded, but I think we see this fight mainly take place on the feet. I think Vick can use his boxing to win on the feet, but I think Hooker is the more dangerous fighter and is more likely to get a KO. Either guy could get takedowns or a finish, but I don’t really look at either guy as a submission artist or a wrestler, so I think we only see grappling attempts from whoever is losing the striking. I don’t feel confident picking either side here, but I do think the line is right and I would make Hooker a slight favorite here. If he can close the range on the feet, then I like him to win those striking exchanges but if he lets Vick work on the outside then he is probably going to eat a ton of jabs and maybe get boxed up. I think if there is a knockout in this fight that is likely going to be Hooker and I think this will be a closely contested fight, so I will just take the more dangerous guy to win here even if it isn’t a finish. Hooker could win with a decision or a submission, but I think he hurts Vick here and finishes with a TKO.
Hooker is my preferred play here in all formats. I like his salary and I think he has a decent shot at a finish and can score highly that way. But I won’t be going heavy on him and I do have some interest in Vick as well. There are too many underdogs I like on this card to have much exposure to Vick, but I could see him making my player pool with 1-2 lineups. Hooker is a guy I would look to have 20-30% ownership to. If I use him in cash, then maybe closer to 20% for GPPs, and if I don’t use him in cash, then probably closer to the 30%. I don’t want too much money tied up on him, but he is the guy I like more here.
Winner – Dan Hooker via 2nd round (T)KO
Juan Adams $8,100 vs Greg Hardy $8,100
Juan Adams
Age: 27
Height: 6’5
Weight: 265
Reach: 81.5”
Gym: Paradigm Training Center
From: Texas
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -110
Adams has good hand speed, and a nice jab. He will throw inside, outside leg kicks & he needs to be very aggressive with those in this matchup. He will throw a jab, right hook combination. He has a long reach & will close the distance with straight punch combinations. He has no regard for his opponent’s power and doesn’t move his head at all. He was getting tagged with clean shots consistently in his UFC debut, but De La Rocha just didn’t have the power to hurt him. He did gas out badly in the second round & allowed De La Rocha to walk him down and land some big shots. De La Rocha was exhausted as well & couldn’t capitalize. Adams does keep a crazy pace, especially for a HW. He finished Chris De La Rocha with 15 consecutive unanswered shots. He has 5 KO/TKO’s in 5 wins.
Adams looks to be a very strong grappler, and just physically manhandles opponents. He will throw big knees to the body in the clinch. He was able to easily takedown Chris De La Rocha with a body lock & landed some nasty G&P. He took him down by just throwing him down after getting a front head lock position & just seemed to be able to take him down with ease whenever he wanted. He will posture up from half guard & land big shots. He will throw big hammerfists & elbows. He is very agile & athletic for his size & can scramble very well. He was out grappled in his last match, but he will work his grappling here. Expect Adams to try to get it to the mat.
Greg Hardy
Age: 30
Height: 6’5
Weight: 265
Reach: 80”
Gym: ATT
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -110
Hardy will throw one-twos & has a decent body jab. He has a nice uppercut. He is still green with his defense, he will exit with his chin up at times & leaves himself vulnerable to shots. No one has been able to exploit it yet, and to exploit it you have to be willing to potentially exchange with him. In his last match, it was the first time he was pushed & extended past the first round and he didn’t look great. He did show heart and the ability to battle, but he badly gassed. He starts very quickly & tries to take opponents out. When he lands, he hits hard & knocks opponents out. He is going to have a big speed & power advantage here. In his 4 fights he has 3 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes.
Hardy is physically going to be much bigger & stronger than most of his opponents but not this one. He will get his wrestling tested here. In his last match he showed solid takedown defense. He was able to move his hips back & has a decent sprawl. He is very strong in the upper body clinch & will muscle his way out of positions. He doesn’t look for takedowns himself & I haven’t seen him in top position. He has no submissions & I’m not sure his belt rank in BJJ.
These are going to be some big boys swinging leather trying to knock the other out. Both guys have to cut weight to reach the 265 lb limit for Heavyweight and Adams has been calling Hardy out for a long time. He does not like Hardy and he wants all the shine that Hardy has been getting. Hardy is the more athletic guy here and he hits a lot harder as well. I think if this fight stays standing then I like him to get the win and I think it would be from a 1st or 2nd round KO. If Adam’s is smart, he will look to put Hardy on his back where there is zero danger and Hardy is very green. If he can do that, then he is going to win this fight if he can avoid getting knocked out. He does hate Hardy though and has power himself, so I could see him looking to knock Hardy out here and not going with the smart game plan. This is not a fight I am looking to bet though. I think if you want to bet Hardy then I would take the round 1 prop and if you want to bet Adams then I would prefer to take him at +605 to win a decision. I will take Hardy to get the KO here, but I would like to see Adams get the win by dominating him with wrestling and GNP.
FDGTD for this one is -475 and that makes this another great GPP fight and another avoid in cash fight for me. I have a tough time picking my preferred play on this one, but I will go with Hardy because I think he has the better chance at 100+ points. However, I don’t feel good enough that I am willing to go 70/30 or anything, I am going to be closer to 50/50 here. This isn’t an all-in fight for me but what I mean by 50/50 is I will probably just duplicate every Hardy lineup I make and do the same thing with Juan. That way if the other 5 fighters are on the nuts then I have a good shot at $25k. But I am throwing lineups away with that strategy so it’s not for everyone. If I was making 3 lineups this week I might even think about doing that duplicate lineup for 2 and then fade the fight in the 3rd. If you have a stronger lean on either guy then you should go heavier on them, I just have no idea how this fight plays out, so I am willing to throw away lineups and take an equal shot on both guys.
Winner – Greg Hardy via 1st round (T)KO
Walt Harris $8,700 vs Aleksei Oleinik $7,500
Walt Harris
Age: 36
Height: 6’4
Weight: 250
Reach: 77”
Gym: Spartan Fitness
From: Alabama
UFC Record: 5-6-1
Fight Matrix: 45
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -165
Harris is a great athlete and packs huge power. Harris has a good one-two, and his right hand is powerful. He will throw a decent jab. He will throw a jab, right hook as well, and an overhand right lead. He has good hand speed, and in close range will let go with hook combinations. He likes to throw check left hooks. He has good inside leg kicks, and hard body kicks. He will go to the head with kicks as well. He will throw front kicks to the body. He likes to switch stances to cut off the cage, and he is always going forward controlling the center. He is the better athlete in this matchup and is going to be the faster fighter in there. He can sometimes not bring his hands back up after he throws punches in the pocket and can get hit with clean counter punches. When Harris lands he is a finisher and will close the show. All 11 of his finishes are by way of KO/TKO. He is 5-3 in his second run with the UFC. He has been TKO’d twice.
Harris has been rounding out his game and improved his grappling. He landed a nice single leg takedown against Mark Godbeer and moved right into mount. He was able to takedown Arlovski with a single but couldn’t hold him down. He has good knees to the head in the clinch and attacked with a front choke against Shamil Abdurakhimov. He has great ground & pound, especially when he can hurt an opponent. He lands huge elbows, punches and is relentless with the barrage. He has improved his takedown defense and has not been taken down by anyone except Fabricio Werdum on 24 hours’ notice in his last 7 fights. Harris was taken down by a single leg very easily and dominated on the mat before being submitted very quickly. He is hard to hold down and does a good job of bellying down & standing up, but it does give opponents like Werdum the opportunity to take the back. He needs to stay off his back here because I feel he will be submitted if he does get taken down. He has trained with Alexey before so that may help a bit with his trickiness.
Alexey Oleinik
Age: 42
Height: 6’2
Weight: 240
Reach: 80”
Gym: ATT
From: Russia
UFC Record: 6-3
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +145
Alexey is a bit of a plodder on the feet who slowly walks opponents down with his hands a bit low so he can come over the top with long casting hooks with both arms. He will walk through your shots to land his own overhand right hook or left hand. He has big power in his overhand right, as he dropped Travis Browne with it and KO’d Jared Rosholt. He will work into the clinch and then land nice punches to the body while looking for body lock takedowns. He is very long so he can throw his casting hooks from a distance and get a hold of you pretty quickly. He has a nice uppercut and will throw a solid leg kick as well. He throws everything with full power.
He is one of the best heavyweight Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in MMA history, he has 45 submission victories and is very unorthodox with his attacks having landed 10 Ezekiel chokes. He has gotten an Ezekiel choke from being fully mounted against Viktor Pesta in the UFC. You will see him get that grip and even pull you on top of him with it from the standing clinch position. He is very comfortable both off his back and on top. He has a good guard and will trap a wrist and attack with triangles and armbars. He does a good job of getting back up out of side control. He has nice sweeps and was able to sweep Travis Browne, get a single leg and ultimately take the back and choke him out. He has an amazing squeeze and gets people to tap very quickly. He has finished his last 14 wins. He ducks his head when he strikes sometimes and can get timed with knees and uppercuts. He is also one of the slowest heavyweights in the division so in space for long periods of time and he gets lit up. He needs to close the distance and make it an ugly brawl on the feet and ultimately get it to the ground and finish the job.
This is a Heavyweight fight between a striker and a grappler. Harris is going to look to land bombs and get a KO while Oleinik is going to try to walk forward, throw some haymakers, and try to grab ahold of Harris. If he can get the fight to the ground, then Harris is in trouble. I think Oleinik can win this fight on the feet as well, but he is going to need a knockout. I don’t see him winning a 15-minute striking match if he is failing at takedowns. However, I don’t think Harris has any chance on the ground other than getting back to his feet. At these odds, I think this is a dog or pass fight and I think Oleinik has a decent chance of finishing. The hardest part is going to be getting Harris to the ground, but we have seen him even lock up chokes while standing so I don’t put anything past this guy anymore. I also don’t think Harris is a super scary KO guy either that warrants this line. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a KO from Oleinik here, but I will take him to be the 2nd guy to submit Harris. If you are looking to bet Harris and want better odds, then I would just take the TKO prop.
On DraftKings, I like both sides of this fight for GPPs, but my preferred play is Oleinik. The only way either of these guys end up on the optimal lineup is with a finish most likely. This won’t be a high paced fight but either guy could finish and that is what we want to target in GPPs. I won’t go overboard on this fight, but I do want to be in line with the field or overweight on Oleinik and probably underweight to Harris. With Harris we are relying on the KO at $8.7k and really, we need that KO to come in the 1st round for him to really be live for the $25k lineup. He could get there with a 2nd round KO but it’s less likely and if this fight goes past the 2nd he is going to be kicked off the optimal. Oleinik could finish any round and have a shot at that optimal lineup and he is going to be the one looking to get this fight to the ground. I would guess this lineup will be in 45% or so of my lineups and I would lean ~30% Oleinik and ~15% Harris. Oleinik has more ways to get on that $25k lineup and it will be easier to do so at his price tag so that is why I prefer him. This is a GPP only fight though and it’s an easy fade for cash games. The FDGTD line is currently -675 and that is the main reason I want it in close to half my GPP lineups.
Winner – Alexey Oleinik via 1st round Submission
Leon Edwards $8,300 vs Rafael Dos Anjos $7,900
Leon Edwards
Age: 27
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: UTC Birmingham
From: England
UFC Record: 9-2
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -125
Leon Edwards is long, southpaw striker with power. Edwards has a very good jab & a strong straight-left hand. He will throw one-twos and jab, body kicks. He has nice counter left straights and left uppercuts. He will attack the body with left straights. He is very good at throwing kicks moving backwards, which is an odd skill. He can stop, plant & immediately throw hard left body kicks. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. He will throw a left head kick to a straight-left hand combination. He’s very fast & can land a shot, back up, and then spring back in and land another. When he has fighters backed to the cage he’s great at fighting long & attacking the body. He will throw flying knees. He has good volume & is great at winning decisions. He has power and can finish the fight. He is very cerebral & he will come into this fight with a game plan and execute it. He won’t go in there and get emotional or do anything irrational. He has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career. He is very durable and has never been finished.
Leon Edwards is a good grappler. He is strong in the clinch, has nice elbows & knees to the body & head. He was able to cut Cerrone with a knee to the head in the clinch. Edwards is a very good wrestler, and if you didn’t know you would think he’s been wrestling his whole life. He has great double leg shots & strong body lock takedowns. He will chain takedowns together & does a great job of transitioning from a double leg to a body lock takedown. He has nice trips in the clinch. Edwards can get over aggressive going for trips & get reversed. On top, Edwards has great control and very suffocating top game. You can tell he has trained at AKA and picked up some tricks. He likes to get to half guard where he will posture up, get a double wrist lock & take the back similar to Khabib. He will trap the planting arm of his opponent, pull it into his body, keep a hold of it with one hand and wail with the other. The shots will usually force opponents to turn & give their backs. He has good control from the back, and good top control overall. He has a good half guard & will attack body, head with shots. He will stay safe on top & rack up control time as well. I do feel he can safely take RDA down & control on top, but he may not want to risk it. Edwards has excellent takedown defense. He will move to get his back against the fence, widen his base & deny doubles. Edwards will try to reverse single legs & get top position. He has great head positioning and will get his hips back quickly. Overall, he is very hard to takedown. Edwards has only really been taken down & controlled by the current champion Kamaru Usman. Edwards isn’t a super dangerous submission threat, but he has a good rear naked choke. He has 3 submissions & has never been subbed.
Rafael Dos Anjos
Age: 34
Height: 5’9
Weight: 170
Reach: 70”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 18-9
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +105
Rafael Dos Anjos is one of the best fighters in UFC history in my opinion. He is a former UFC lightweight champion and has one of the best resumes at 155 ever. He is a great, well-rounded fighter. A nasty Muay Thai striker, and black belt in Jiu-Jitsu with good wrestling. He has a heavy forward pressure style and throws very high volume. He has a nice lead straight and leaping right hook. He will throw the left straight and left overhand very fast down the pipe. He has very hard body and leg kicks and throws body kicks early and often. He will leap in with an uppercut. RDA has great fakes and feints and has good head movement. He is much more balanced and technical striker than Edwards. RDA doesn’t have huge power and doesn’t have many finishes by strikes. In this fight it will be interesting to see if his shots have enough impact to stun Edwards, who hasn’t shown the greatest chin. RDA will hang in the pocket and wing overhands in the pocket. He was fighting against the cage a lot of the fight against Usman and Covington, and that’s why he lost the fight. RDA will want to make Edwards move backwards with his striking and control the fight. He can’t win this match backing up. Dos Anjos has 5 KO/TKO’s in his career. Dos Anjos has been KO/TKO’d 3 times, but he has a hell of a chin. He can take big shots & keep coming.
RDA is not a bad grappler at all, he just has had to go up against the elite of the elite lately. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & has solid offensive wrestling himself. He will rarely go for takedowns, but he has a nice double leg against the fence. He will occasionally shoot singles at range, but he is always usually transitioning back to the double leg. When he gets on top he is very good. He has a heavy top game, and uses pressure passing to move into dominant positions. He won his last match with a submission. He is very good at just beating opponents up from the guard with shots as well and defending submissions. He has stayed safe in the guards of fighters such as Anthony Pettis & Nate Diaz. He has a very nice kimura from half guard, and will also look for arm triangles. He likes to take the back & get rear-naked chokes as well. RDA has a good Muay Thai plum and knees in the clinch. He is good at making fighters pay for attempting to take him down and popping right back up when they do. RDA has always struggled with wrestlers; losing to Covington, Usman, Khabib, Guida, Tibau, and Tyson Griffin. He also had a very questionable decision win vs Evan Dunham. He is much better now at defending takedowns and using the cage to get off his back. He will get wide against the cage, and does a good job breaking the posture of his opponents and landing nice elbows. He has good knees to the body. He has a very good sprawl, and when he does get taken down he will bounce right back up. He is active off his back with sweeps & kimura attempts, and usually always is back to his feet quickly. He has 10 submissions & has never been submitted in his career. He has the better cardio & more championship experience.
This should be a fun one. Both guys are near the top of the division and the winner could be one fight away from a title shot after this. Edwards is on a roll right now and has transitioned from a pure striker to a solid grappler over the last 3 years. RDA has been around the top of this division and the top of 155 lbs for a few years and he is looking to make one more run at the belt. He is 34 years old now though and likely on the decline, where Edwards is only 27 and is on the rise. This is a very close fight as the betting line indicates and I am having a hard time picking a winner on this one. I will say that I won’t bet this fight unless the odds change, and if that happens I would take the underdog, whoever that is. I think this is a 50/50 fight and I have gone back and forth on my pick. I think Edwards will be landing the harder shots on the feet and he can land takedowns as well. I also think RDA is more dangerous on the ground and he will be the one landing more volume and could land takedowns himself. I might change my pick again this week, but I am going to lean with the guy who has more 5-round experience and I will take RDA here. I also wouldn’t want to lay any juice on either of these guys so RDA at +100 is the guy I would rather bet in this fight as well if I was forced to bet this fight. I will just sit back for this one and hope for a fun fight and I do expect the line to stay close to PK all week. If either guy gets to +130 or more, then I will take a small shot, but other than that I will take RDA as my pick and just enjoy this one.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is RDA. I do think this is an all-in fight at their salaries though because with 5-rounds to work with I would be surprised to see either of them not get over 10x in a win. I also think you can stack this fight in cash and just lock in the 100+ and the win. I don’t feel confident enough in either guy to go solo in cash, so I will either stack it or fade it personally. I do like RDA more for GPPs though because he is cheaper and is a higher DK scorer in general. He has the higher ceiling in this matchup and he is a dog I think can win, so I will look to be overweight on him. If I am making 10 lineups I would probably go 7 RDA and 3 Edwards. If you wanted to flip those numbers or go 50/50 I think that is fine as well, but I wouldn’t fade this fight in many GPPs because of their prices.
Winner – Rafael Dos Anjos via Split Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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