BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 240 Location – Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Thanks for purchasing my UFC 240 breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV in Canada. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $20 buy-in and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $200k being paid out. They also have round 2 of the qualifier tournament, the Knockout Kings, where we have 100 qualifiers competing for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualified. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I have 1 shots at the Q so I will probably go a bit lighter overall and focus on getting that lineup in the top half, so I can move onto the final round. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Tanner Boser $8,500 vs Giacomo Lemos $7,700
Tanner Boser
Age: 27
Height: 6’2
Weight: 249
Reach: N/A
Gym: Hayabusa Training Center
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 71
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -170
Tanner Boser is making his UFC debut here. He is fighting out of Canada & is much more experienced. He has defeated some recognizable names. Boser is a much smoother, more technical striker. He has much better movement & better shot selection. Boser is deceptively athletic with good movement, switching stances & not standing in front of opponents. He likes to work behind kicks & counter with punches & elbows as opponents try to close the distance. He has nasty leg kicks inside & outside. He will throw heavy round & front kicks to the body & head. He has nice one-twos as opponents try to close the distance. He will throw counter hooks moving backwards, along with overhand rights. He will land & angle off the cage well. He is hittable, but he has a great chin. I have seen him take some bombs & show nothing. He has 7 KO/TKO’s, but definitely more of a volume fighter. He finished his last match with leg kicks. He has lost some decisions that I think were a bit raw deals & he could easily have a better record. He has been knocked out one time in his career.
Boser is not an offensive grappler. He is going to be trying to use his movement & striking to keep Lemos at bay & win the striking. I haven’t seen him shoot many, if any takedowns at all or look for the clinch. He shows good balance & takedown defense against the cage. He will dig solid double underhooks to circle off the cage & attack with knees. Denis Smoldarov who’s a strong wrestler was able to time some double leg takedowns, but Boser also showed a strong sprawl. Boser isn’t bad off his back. He has decent get-ups & will attack with kimuras. Boser has good cardio & will go to work off the breaks. His takedown defense to me is pretty good. He isn’t someone who will work on top much. He has two rear naked choke submissions early in his career. He has never been submitted. Boser is going to want to use his kicks & movement to outstrike Lemos. When Lemos closes the distance against the cage, he needs to deny the takedowns & get Lemos tired. If he can deny the takedowns & put the pressure on, he could finish the fight.
Giacomo Lemos
Age: 30
Height: 6’3
Weight:
Reach: N/A
Gym: Rangel Farías Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 137
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +150
Giacomo Lemos will be making his UFC in enemy territory. This is Lemos’ first fight in North America, and he’s facing a Canadian in Canada. Lemos has very sloppy boxing technique. He has an ok jab & will close the distance with hooks. He will throw a jab, overhand right combination. He will throw jab, overhand right, left hook combinations as well. His hand speed is not good & he’s very hittable in boxing range. He knows he doesn’t have great hands & doesn’t throw them much. He uses his lateral movement & kicks until he can time a takedown entry. He has pretty good inside, outside leg kicks, along with round kicks to the body & head. He likes to throw the front kick to the body a lot. His striking is solely used to get inside & isn’t very dangerous. He looks tough & has a good chin. He has 4 KO/TKO’s, but most on the ground. He has never been defeated.
Lemos is a grappler. He likes to get opponents in the clinch against the cage & work in the dirty boxing range. He will get an over, under position & land knees to the body. He does a good job of throwing hooks to the body & uppercuts to the head from there. He will get the Muay Thai plum & look for knees to the body & head. His wrestling isn’t the best. He will push opponents to the cage and look for singles & doubles from there. He has a good single leg takedown. When he gets the takedown, he is very active with ground & pound. He will spam small hammer fists or short punches & then mix in some more powerful ones. He has nice, short elbows from half guard. He is relentless with his grappling & looks to have good cardio. Once he gets opponents down in the later rounds he can move to mount & finish. He doesn’t go for submissions very often & is more of a ground & pound finisher. Lemos has one career submission. Lemos is going to need to close the distance & get his hands on Boser. He doesn’t have the striking to fight basically anyone in a range fight & needs to make it ugly. He needs to work his dirty boxing, control Boser against the cage, & ultimately bring it to the mat. His top game doesn’t look bad & he finishes fights from there.
This is a very low-level UFC fight and I am not even sure why it’s on this card honestly. I haven’t seen anything from either of these guys to justify the UFC signing them other than the fact that talent is limited in the Heavyweight division. I would say Boser looks to be the more well-rounded fighter and probably the cleaner striker as well (still not pretty), but Lemos looks to be more powerful and more likely to land takedowns. I think If this fight ends in the first half of the fight that Lemos is the likely winner and if it goes past the half way point it should favor Boser. I think Lemos is going to be looking for the KO and/or takedowns early and try to finish this fight by throwing wild bombs on the feet or on the ground. If he can’t get the KO, I think he loses this fight. Boser doesn’t look to have a lot of power for a heavyweight but I think there is a good chance Lemos gasses and Boser could finish him with strikes late. This is closer to a 50/50 fight to me though, so I will take the underdog here and say he finishes in the first minute of round 2.
Per usual, I want to target the first fight of the night. Nothing changes with this fight. These guys are both low level and they are most likely to make mistakes and get finished. For that reason, I will be targeting both of them. Lemos is my preferred play though because this is a card I don’t like many underdogs. If Lemos wins, I think it is probably an early finish. That is what I am targeting with him. I want to target Boser because Lemos is terrible and Boser could finish him in any round. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably go 3 Lemos and 1 Boser. Something along those lines. This is a GPP only fight though and I wouldn’t trust either of these guys in cash or in round 2 of the Qualifier.
Winner – Giacomo Lemos via 2nd round (T)KO
Kyle Stewart $8,200 vs Erik Koch $8,000
Kyle Stewart
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 158
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -110
Kyle Stewart had an unsuccessful UFC debut. He came in on short notice & was submitted in round one vs Chance Rencountre. He will be looking to put his best foot forward vs Erik Koch. Kyle Stewart is well-rounded with power in his hands. He has a nice straight-right hand, and a good one-two. He keeps heavy pressure on opponents & likes to walk them down, close the distance, and let his hands go. He will throw heavy hook combinations to the head in close range, & mix in uppercuts. He can drop or finish the fight with either hand, but his right hand especially. He keeps a long stance & has a long reach, so it helps him in striking, but gives away the single leg & leg kicks a bit. He likes to trade & when he gets hit he will return with two or three. He doesn’t throw kicks much, but he has heavy rear leg body & head kicks. He has 4 KO/TKO’s & has a great chin never being finished with strikes. He is willing to walk opponents down & take a shot to give one which could be important in this fight.
Stewart is an average grappler with very questionable defensive wrestling. Stewart will shoot double legs & body locks himself when he backs opponents against the cage. He isn’t extremely active with his wrestling and will usually get top position from reversing takedowns. He will counter with kimura attempts & has a solid sprawl. He will sprawl & circle to the back. He also will get double underhooks or the front head lock position & snap opponents down. He looks to be explosive & can create power in short distances. He will throw elbows to the side of the head when he defends opponent’s takedowns against the cage. On top, he has nice elbows and ground & pound. He likes to get the side saddle position & attack with chokes & short shots. He can give his back doing this against more experienced grapplers. Stewart allows opponents to get in on his legs & body locks much too easily. He doesn’t have good clinch technique & gets taken down pretty easily with body locks. He can be taken down by chain wrestlers as well. He was submitted by rear naked choke in his last match. I kind of expect Koch to try to get him down with body locks & take the back so he has to be ready for that. Stewart does usually have good get-ups & is very aggressive when he stands up with strikes. He has two armbar finishes in his career. Stewart, to me, should keep this fight standing and put the pressure on Koch. He has more power & Koch doesn’t deal with pressure well. If Stewart can back Koch to the cage he could land a finishing punch.
Erik Koch
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Roufusport
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 4-5
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -110
Erik Koch is still searching for his first win in 3 years. He has lost back to back fights & had to pull out of 3 others due to injury. He has notoriously been a fighter who struggles to make it to fight night. He has had 11 bouts canceled over his UFC career. He definitely needs a win to keep his job & is fighting for his career here. Koch looked much sharper in his last match than when he fought Clay Guida in my opinion, but that Bobby Green fight was a year and a half ago. Koch still has time at only 30 years old if he can put some wins together. Koch is a distance striker. He has a very snappy jab & a good one-two. He will try to snipe opponents with straight punches & standing elbows as they try to close the distance. In his last match Koch was on fire with his left hook. He was landing it early & often especially off the break after clinches. Koch has solid kicks. He has nice leg & body kicks, and tricky head kicks. He will mix head kicks into combination and can throw them with both legs. When Koch is given space he’s a pretty solid striker & can get into a flow state. He really struggles to deal with forward pressure. He gets spastic & will start darting in with big, explosive movements from far too close leaving him open to being hit & taken down. He becomes too defensive when opponents go forward & gets backed up too easily. Koch used to be much more confident & aggressive, but after taking a couple knockouts he doesn’t fight with the same vigor. He doesn’t have big power with only 4 career KO/TKO’s. Koch has a solid chin but has been finished by strikes twice.
Erik Koch isn’t a bad grappler and has a lot of submissions in his career. He likes to get opponents backed up near the fence where he can get in on body locks. He has solid trip takedowns and works to the back effectively. He was able to takedown & take the back of Bobby Green in round one of his last match. He won’t usually be offensive with takedowns unless he is at a disadvantage on the feet. Koch isn’t bad at defending the initial takedown shot. He will dig underhooks, or sprawl on doubles, but he struggles with chain wrestling. If opponents can get him to the cage & flow between takedown attempts he will be taken down. He also struggles to blend his techniques together & Clay Guida continuously took him down after blitzing forward with punch combos. Koch will attack from his guard with triangles, armbars, and has good get-ups initially. If opponents start to have success grinding him out though, he breaks easily. He will accept bottom position & just not do much. He has never been submitted & will fight until the final bell. Koch has 8 career submissions, but just one in 9 UFC fights. I think Koch should look to mix it up in this fight. He is going to be the quicker, more technical fighter. He should look to use his straight shots to snipe Stewart, keep him on the outside & then take him down when Stewart opens up. If he can use his body locks to get control time or even take the back & threaten with subs, I see him having a good chance to win. He needs to stay technical & control the center of the cage.
Koch has been around the UFC for years fighting at 145 and 155 lbs. Now he is making the jump up to make his debut at 170 lbs. Koch has a lot of skills and when I saw he was the underdog in this fight I was immediately interested. However, after research I couldn’t pull the trigger and now I am going to the other way with my pick. I do think Koch is the better striker here, but he is going to be at a 5-inch reach disadvantage here and he won’t be the more powerful fighter in this division. I think he would need to win a 15-minute striking match here for his best path to victory. He could get the KO, but I think Stewart is more likely to get the KO and I see Koch spending a lot of time against the cage or on his back in this matchup. I think Stewart is going to be able to muscle him against the cage and work his way to the ground. I think he could end the fight on the ground with GNP or a submission if he is able to get it there. I also think Koch could be in it for the paycheck these days with him making the jump to 170 lbs. I don’t see him ever making a run at the title in this division, so I don’t see the point of this move unless it’s just to make life easier not having to cut weight. I think Stewart finishes him with a TKO and it could come in any round. I think his size and power is going to be too much for Koch here and this could be the last we see of Koch if he does get finished.
This is our mid-range fight of the week. My preferred play is Stewart because I am picking him to win and finish, but I want some Koch lineups too. I think Koch can finish this fight as well and if either guy gets a finish in this fight they have a decent shot at being on the optimal lineup at their price tags. I think this is a GPP only fight but it is one I will be targeting both sides of and I wouldn’t hate being overweight to both guys. Most of my Koch lineups are going to be duplicated lineups that I already created with Stewart, but I do want to have more Stewart lineups in general on this slate. I think the odds shifting to Koch’s favor are going to make him more popular than Stewart, so it is going to be harder for me to be overweight on Koch. I do think you can avoid this fight if you are making a small number of lineups but if you are MMEing then I think this could be an important fight to target.
Winner – Kyle Stewart via 3rd round (T)KO
Gillian Robertson $8,600 vs Sarah Frota $7,600
Gillian Robertson
Age: 24
Height: 5’2
Weight: 125
Reach: 66”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Canada
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 46
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -120
Gillian Robertson is fighting for the first time in her home country of Canada. She is coming off a bounce back win, in which she won via second round finish. Robertson is a grappler & her striking is very much developing. She doesn’t have much striking to speak of. She just really likes to circle, fake & feint, and try to get in on a single leg. She will throw a one-two & a jab. Her hand speed is not good & she doesn’t sit down and put power on her shots yet. Due to that fighters are able to absorb or slip & return with more significant shots. She does do a good job of feinting the straight-right & ducking under. She isn’t the most explosive athlete and going to need to really work on her technical striking to progress further in the rankings. She is very hittable. She has improved the fluidity of her punches a bit, but overall still lacks power. When she gets hit and walked down, she doesn’t pose a big enough threat on the feet to back her opponents off her. She has a good chin and will not get discouraged. She will eat shots to get inside. Robertson has never been finished by strikes standing & was finished just once by TKO on the ground. She has no career KO/TKO’s.
Robertson is a very strong grappler & has great entries into her takedown attempts. She will use her punches to setup single legs, duck under & dump her opponents. When she gets ahold of the leg, she has a great grip & it’s very hard to get your leg free. She will duck under into double legs as well. She will even pull guard & does a good job of bellying down & transitioning right into a single leg and ending up on top. When she gets on top, she has very heavy top pressure & will pressure pass right into mount & then the back. She has hard elbows & strong control. She has great rear naked chokes & choked out Molly McCann. She was shucked off the back by Emily Whitmire, but immediately transitioned to an armbar & finished the fight. She will attack with good leg locks to sweep or finish. She was submitted via armbar against Mayra Buena Silva. There’s going to be opportunities for Robertson to takedown Frota in this fight, and when she does she needs to capitalize. She should not do anything dangerous & rely more on position & ground & pound over submission. If the submission is there, go for it, but she needs the match on the ground. Robertson has 4 career submissions & been submitted just one time. She has to have been training submission defense from inside opponent’s guards & can’t get caught sleeping again. If Robertson can just stay heavy, keep position, & land some ground & pound she should be successful. I see her getting takedowns in the match & unless she runs into a shot, I don’t think she gets knocked out. Robertson is opportunistic with submissions & if she can take the back she could get the sub.
Sarah Frota
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: Astra Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +100
Sarah Frota is coming off her first career loss. It was a split decision loss she arguably could have won. Frota missed weight by 8 lbs for her UFC debut & is now moving up to 125 lbs. Frota was a big 115er & I don’t think she will be undersized in this division. Frota is a bit sloppy as a striker but has knockout power. She plods forward in straight lines & keeps heavy pressure on opponents. Frota is a southpaw. She likes to close the distance with straight-left hands. She will throw one-twos & jab, overhand rights as well. When she gets inside she will throw short hooks in close range. She throws the hooks very wide with full power. She will throw some inside leg & body kicks. Her kicks sometimes can come very slow & are easily caught or countered. She doesn’t cut the cage off & holds her hands low so fighters who can strike & angle will beat her. She lacks composure & will wing shots giving her hips up for easy takedowns. Frota does have some power with two KO/TKO’s. She has never been finished by strikes & has a great chin.
Sarah Frota is a black belt & good Jiu-Jitsu player. She will close the distance & work for body lock takedowns. She doesn’t shoot takedowns at range and will only get them in the clinch or against the cage. She isn’t extremely active looking for takedowns & doesn’t mind banging on the feet. Her takedown defense is not very good. When she can see the double coming, she does do a decent job of attacking with a guillotine or snapping her opponents down & taking top position. Usually though she will throw herself off balance or come in square & give up easy double legs. She was taken down several times in the clinch vs Souza in her last match as well. A lot of times Frota seems to just flop to her back to work her guard. She will pull guard in the clinch as well, along with attacking with jumping guillotines. Off her back she has a very good guard. She will attack with triangles, armbars, and finished a majority of her fights off her back. She will attack with a rubber guard & even gogoplatas & omaplatas. She was able to nullify the top game of Livia Souza in her UFC debut & forced several referee stand ups. She did give her back late in the fight and took some ground & pound shots. Frota won’t work to get-up, and if she can’t get the submission she could lose the round. This is an interesting matchup, because I do think Robertson will take Frota down, and we get to see who has the better ground game. Frota has 5 career submissions. She has finished 7 of her 9 wins & usually when fights go to decision for her they’re close. She has had two split decisions winning one & losing one in three career decisions. She will need to prove she can bounce back from a loss & get the win here. Frota needs to pressure Robertson on the feet, let her shots go & deny the takedowns or reverse to top position. If she’s put on her back, she needs to attack with her submissions & try to work back to her feet if they aren’t working. If she can stay off her back for long periods of the fight she should win the match.
Frota missed weight by 8 lbs in her UFC debut in the 115 lbs division so now she is stepping up to the 125 lbs division and facing a grappler. She lost her debut in a close fight but mainly because she was taken down and spent too much time on her back. Robertson is very aggressive with takedowns and she is great at finding her way into dominant positions to lock up submissions. If she wins this fight it is going to be through the ground and maybe she can get a submission here as well. Frota is a BJJ black belt though so it is going to be tough to get a submission on her I would imagine, and on the feet, Frota is going to piece her up. Robertson is going to need to get the fight to the ground early and often and I think a submission would be her best chance at a win here because I don’t see her keeping Frota on the mat for long or being able to wrestle for 3 hard rounds. I think Frota is going to have success stuffing takedowns here and this fight shouldn’t be close at all on the feet. If she can keep it standing, I think she can finish this fight with a TKO, but she is probably going to spend a lot of time defending takedowns against the cage. I like the underdog in this spot but if she can’t stuff the takedowns then this fight could be over quickly based on what we have seen with Robertson’s ground game.
The -195 FDGTD line makes this a fight I will target heavily in GPPs. My preferred play is Frota because she is the underdog I have the most confidence in on this card. I think she can finish this fight in any round with a TKO, but I think it’s more likely the 2nd or 3rd round. I think she will be defending takedowns and trying to get back to her feet the first round, but I think Robertson could fade after that and Frota finish late. However, I think if Robertson wins, it could be the 1st round, so I have to target her as well. This fight will be in more than half my lineups and I will probably be around 40% Frota and 25% Robertson. Frota would be the cash game option of the two but I do prefer this fight more for GPPs.
Winner – Sarah Frota via 2nd round (T)KO
Alexandre Pantoja $8,300 vs Deiveson Figueiredo $7,900
Alexandre Pantoja
Age: 29
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-1
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -125
This is an excellent fight. Alexandre Pantoja is ascending up the rankings. He is 5-1 in the UFC & coming off back to back finishes. His one UFC loss was questionable & many people thought he won. Pantoja is peaking right now & looking phenomenal. He is coming off a first round knockout of Wilson Reis & has dominated his last three opponents. Pantoja is an aggressive striker, along with being a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Pantoja has a nice jab, and a good one-two. He has nasty leg kicks & will throw a one-two, leg kick combination. He has a nice jab, left hook combo. He has a nice wide right hook & overhand right. He will slide back & counter with those attacks. He has nice hooks to the body, and he will throw a right hook to the body, left hook to the head combination. He will throw nice front kicks to the body & the occasional round or front kick to the head. He has shown the tendency to fight emotionally & get a bit wild. When he gets hit, he will aggressively come forward and try to get it back. He has no problem sitting in the pocket & exchanging and has a great chin with solid power. He can’t do that here against a heavy hitter, maybe the heaviest hitter in the division in Deiveson. His striking has hit another level since joining ATT. His hand speed & head movement is much better. He will slip & rip in the pocket very effectively. His feints are better along with his shot selection. He landed a switch stance, straight-right hand that knocked out Wilson Reis in his last match. He needs to have that technical approach again here and can’t get wild and allow Figueiredo takedown opportunities. Pantoja has 7 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished.
Pantoja is a great grappler with superb BJJ. He is very strong in the clinch, and when he backs fighters against the cage, he will grab the Muay Thai plum and land hard knees to the head and body. He will get a single collar position against the cage and throw nasty elbows and knees to the body. He will go for body lock takedowns in the clinch and shoots some reactive shots if he has an advantage on the mat. On top, he is very good, he has great guard passing and moves into dominant positions quickly. He has nasty ground & pound and is extremely accurate. He loves to take the back where he has a great body triangle and control. He has a great rear naked choke with 6. He has never been submitted. I expect him to try to keep this fight standing & avoid being on his back. His takedown defense is solid. He has a strong sprawl and is good at creating scrambles right away. In his fight against Dustin Ortiz, he lost more due to Ortiz being able to turn in after Pantoja took the back & control the later parts of two rounds but didn’t have great success taking him down. He is extremely hard to hold down. Pantoja has 9 career submissions. Pantoja is clearly the more technical striker here. I see him having success with his counters, but he just has to stay disciplined & move his feet. He can’t get emotional & engage in a brawl. He needs to stay moving, use his straighter, faster hand speed & superior movement to win. If he can time takedowns that would be great as well, because I think he could control on top. Pantoja has solid cardio also & just needs to show his maturation to outclass Figueiredo here.
Deiveson Figueiredo
Age: 31
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Marajo Brothers
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4–1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +105
Deiveson Figueiredo needs to get back on track after being handed his first career loss. He began his career 15-0 with a 4-0 UFC record, but lost a decision last time out to Jussier Formiga. Formiga largely dominated the fight & muted the offense of Figueiredo. Deiveson Figueiredo is a huge flyweight and he uses it to try to intimidate his opponents. He likes to walk down his opponents with his hands down, looking for his opponents to counter so he can return with uppercuts and straight punches. He has an extremely powerful straight-right hand, and a sick uppercut. He landed some brutal body punches against Moraga & took him out. He has very nice body kicks, but he doesn’t throw many kicks. When he feels fighters starting to wilt, he will attack heavy and go for the kill. He really likes attacking with heavy shots off breaks in grappling situations. He can be a bit inactive and just follow looking for one big shot or a takedown entry. He doesn’t cut the cage off very well. He is a bit slow and open to be hit. He has 8 KO/TKO’s & can change the fight with one shot.
A lot of people see Figueiredo as more of a striker, but he is a better grappler. His striking is largely to back opponents up, so he can try to wrestle. He gets inside very well and gets the double underhooks in the clinch and looks for trip takedowns. He was able to continuously get the body lock & dump John Moraga & Joe Morales. He also has a strong double leg. He is very powerful and when he takes opponents down he has good control. He mostly just likes to beat opponents up from their guard & open up with big ground & pound when he can posture up. He can be taken down himself, but he attacks with guillotines, kimuras and is very active off his back. He will jump on guillotines & really go hard for the finish. He was largely controlled in his fight against Jarred Brooks & got his back taken in a scramble. Jussier Formiga was able to take him down with almost every takedown in the book. Formiga landed a single, double, & a body lock takedown. Figueiredo was active with elbows off his back but dominated & allowed Formiga to pass to dominant positions. Deiveson is good when he can be the hammer. When he can start to walk opponents down, get them moving backwards & rough them up a bit, he is at his best. He really is not a technical fighter on the feet. His power is superb though. I think Figueiredo will be looking to get the fight to the mat. I think he definitely has a good puncher’s chance on the feet, but Pantoja has never been finished. If Deiveson can use his size to take Pantoja down, he may wear on him. If Pantoja becomes tired or flatter footed, then Deiveson will have a better chance of landing a big shot.
This is one of my favorite fights on the card. I like both of these guys and if they keep the 125 lb division around, then I see both guys competing near the top of the division for years to come. They are both well-rounded and either could look for takedowns here, but primarily they have looked to win fights with their striking. Pantoja is going to be the volume striker here and the more technical striker as well in my opinion. Figueiredo is going to be the guy throwing haymakers, looking for the big one punch to end the fight. I also think Figueiredo is more likely to look for takedowns. They are both solid on the ground but more so in top control. They have both lost fights from being put on their back, so whoever is able to land the takedowns should be able to score points with top control. I think Pantoja is more dangerous on the ground though and I think he is more likely to get the submission. I do think this is a pretty close fight, but I have to lean Pantoja here. I think he can win the fight anywhere it goes and as long as he avoids the KO punch and spending too much time on his back, he wins this fight with his volume and pressure. I think he should be closer to a -150 favorite here, so I am going to take a 1u stab at him at -120 as my free bet of the week.
On DraftKings, Pantoja is my preferred play. This could be a good fight to target since it is mid-range, but I could also see either guy still not getting 10x in a win, so I won’t be too heavy on it. I prefer this fight more for GPPs, but I wouldn’t talk you off either side in cash. I think Pantoja has more ways of scoring highly though and if he wins I do think he scores 10x or more, so I will have some ownership with him but maybe 15-20% and that is where I expect the field to be as well. I am less interested in Fig, but he does have one shot KO power, so I feel like I have to get at least 5-10% of him in my GPPs. I am also not even against using my favorite Pantoja lineup and duplicating it with Fig and leaving $400+ on the table to be different.
Winner – Alexandre Pantoja via Unanimous Decision
Gavin Tucker $8,400 vs Seung Woo Choi $7,800
Gavin Tucker
Age: 33
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 66”
Gym: Titans MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 years 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -120
Gavin Tucker will be returning after quite a long layoff. He has been out almost two years. He took a gruesome beating in his last match vs Rick Glenn. Tucker is a fighter who utilizes a ton of movement. He has good lateral movement, switches stances & is pretty explosive. He is a southpaw. Tucker has a nice jab to the body & head. He will throw nice one-twos & leaps into straight-left hands. He will leap into a lot of shots, overhand lefts, rear uppercuts, & right hooks. He will attack the body with hooks & straight punches. He has nice low kicks & good round & front kicks to the body. He has really nice high kicks. When he’s given space, he will start to throw spinning kicks, combinations, and looks very good. He will taunt opponents & is a very intense guy. He doesn’t deal with pressure very well. He will back himself up against the cage. Rick Glenn was able to cut him off, counter & hurt him in round one. Tucker does have a solid chin & has never been finished by strikes. Tucker took a massive amount of damage in his last fight. Tucker broke 4 bones in his face & hasn’t fought since. That fight may have diminished his ability to take a shot. Tucker has 4 KO/TKO’s.
Gavin Tucker doesn’t look like a very good grappler in my opinion. He will mix it up if he doesn’t like the forward pressure he’s receiving. He will look for blast doubles & body lock takedowns. He does have good knees & elbows off the break in the clinch. In top position, he really doesn’t look great to me. He has solid ground & pound but makes mistakes. He doesn’t have the best top control & gives up positions to sweep. He will look for the back & has a few rear naked choke wins. He was taken down & beat up in his last fight. He couldn’t get off his back & Rick Glenn lit him up with G&P. He showed great toughness & did not stop moving so he could win the fight. He was attacking with leg locks, but to no avail. You could tell he was trying to protect his face & it took away from what he could truly show on the bottom. Tucker has four submissions & has never been finished.
Seung Woo Choi
Age: 26
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: MOB Training Center
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 241
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +100
Seung Woo Choi had a rough UFC debut. He had to travel to Russia to take on a Russian & was handed a comprehensive decision loss. He was thoroughly out grappled. Choi is a long, rangy striker. He has very solid footwork & distance control. He has very nice leg kicks & a nasty one-two combination. His jab is very nice. He does a great job of pull countering with his straight-right hand to maintain distance. He will throw straight-right hand, left hook combinations. He likes to finish combinations with leg kicks. He will throw solid front & round kicks to the body. He has nasty front kicks to the head. He will throw spinning heel, question mark & round house kicks to the head as well. He is very technical & won’t overextend or put himself in bad positions. He has huge power & great accuracy in his straight-right hand. I have seen him get multiple one punch knockouts. He has 5 KO/TKO’s in 8 wins. In his one loss he was knocked out. In that fight he got dropped with the first punch & finished with G&P.
Choi isn’t an offensive grappler & will be trying to use his striking to maintain distance & fight at range. He looks hard to takedown in the clinch and has nasty elbows in close range. He has very fast hand speed & can land nice combos off the break. He will grab the Thai plum & land vicious knees to the body & head. He can be controlled in the clinch, but he is very hard to takedown. I have seen him get a couple body locks in a fight where an opponent was trying to take him down in the clinch. He uses his length & physicality well to deny takedowns but was dominated in his last match via wrestling. He fought a beast in Movsar Evloev who I feel is going to do that to a lot of opponents. He didn’t get overwhelmed too bad on the mat & survived all three rounds. He definitely should have worked to address that after the fight. Choi has no submissions, nor has he ever been submitted. He has good cardio & a never say die attitude.
Tucker has been in two UFC fights and both were completely one sided. In his debut he made his opponent look like a punching bag and picked him apart on the feet for 3-rounds. In his last fight, which was almost two years ago, he was dominated on the ground and had multiple fractures in his face but somehow survived all 3 rounds. He is quick on the feet, uses great footwork, movement, and has solid boxing and kicks. He can mix in takedowns too, but he seems to prefer the striking more. He is going to be at an 8-inch reach disadvantage in this spot though and his opponent is going to look to keep this standing as well. Choi is a solid striker, but I am mostly impressed with his kicks and against a shorter guy in Tucker those could be big for him here. I think he probably has more knockout power as well, but he is too inactive at times and Tucker is going to be dancing around him and trying to chop him down with leg kicks. I think Choi is live here, and more likely to get a KO, but I think the line is about right here and I am going to slightly favor Tucker to outpoint him over 3-rounds.
Choi is my preferred play on DraftKings. I do expect him to be a popular dog, but for good reason. He is one of the more live underdogs on the card and he could get a finish. I don’t think he does get a finish here, but this could be a card where we don’t need our dogs to score highly, we might just need them to win. For that reason, I will try to be overweight to Choi and I think he is playable in all formats. I think Tucker is in play for GPPs because he could get a finish as well, but I am not looking to target him much and I don’t think he scores highly in a decision win. I may full fade Tucker here but since I expect Choi to be popular and Tucker to be low owned, I might play him as an ownership play in 1-2 lineups.
Winner – Gavin Tucker via Unanimous Decision
Hakeem Dawodu $9,300 vs Yoshinori Horie $6,900
Hakeem Dawodu
Age: 28
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Champions Creed
From: Canada
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 120
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4–1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -400
Hakeem Dawodu has bounced back well after his disaster of a UFC debut. He was finished in 39 seconds in his first fight but has won back to back fights. He is once again fighting in his home country & taking on a newcomer. Dawodu has a nice jab. He has a good one-two & jab, right hook. He will wear opponents out with hard body shots. He will throw hard front & round kicks to the body. He does a great job of attacking with hooks to the body. He will throw hard leg kicks inside and outside throughout the fight. He has big power in his kicks and was eating up the legs of Austin Arnett in a recent fight. He is flat footed and doesn’t move his head off center line when throwing hooks, making him susceptible to straight punch counters. He likes to use a lot of hooks, uppercuts, and wide punches in the pocket as opposed to straight shots. He will admire his work a little bit after he lands. His chin to me is a bit questionable, but he’s never been finished with strikes. He has an edge, when he gets hit he will counter back hard & backs opponents off. He has 6 KO/TKO’s in 9 wins.
Dawodu is a strong athlete, and a good grappler. He is strong in the clinch, landing hard knees, and short punches to the body. He has explosive double leg takedowns, and good body locks. On top, he isn’t great, he has decent ground & pound but is still green on the ground. He has great takedown defense, is very explosive and hard to hold down. I don’t see him looking for any takedowns in this fight. He has great cardio and comes in good shape for every fight. Dawodu is going to be looking to walk Horie down, cut the cage off & use leg kicks to set up combinations. I think he has the tighter hands in close range & could potentially bully Horie to a victory.
Yoshinori Horie
Age: 24
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 67”
Gym: Alliance-Square
From: Japan
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 360
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +325
Yoshinori Horie will be making his UFC debut fighting out of Japan. Horie is young at 24 years old, and this will be his first fight out of Japan. He trains at a solid gym with legendary Pride fighter TK Kosaka as his head coach. Horie is a good athlete with solid speed. He has a wide karate stance, while bouncing in & out of range. I was impressed by his fundamentals, but he’s still raw. He has nice leg kicks & a very fast, straight-right hand. He will attack the body & head with it and explodes into range & gets out very quickly. He has a pretty nasty left hook, and good overhand right, left hook combo. He likes to throw occasional head kicks & spinning back kicks to the body He will use a lot of feints to draw out attacks & counter. He is smooth & good in a range striking fight. He struggles with leg kicks & is heavy on his lead leg. I see that potentially being a big problem in this fight. He doesn’t deal with pressure well & pulls back with his hands low & chin high. When he is pressured, he likes to wing a lot of big shots, and if he lands he has big power. He can be countered & taken out though, and I feel his chin is questionable. I have seen him rocked in several fights & he was TKO’d in his one loss. The fighter he lost to was a UFC veteran, but not the best fighter. He does have power with 6 KO/TKO’s, but fighters seem to walk through a lot of his shots. I think Horie has the potential to be a very good striker when he puts it together.
Horie isn’t a very active grappler. He has shown some good timing on double legs and has decent back takes. His takedown defense is questionable, but not bad. He will sprawl on shots & use underhooks to reverse to top position. He is hard to get inside on with his movement & counters. I do feel he will struggle with chain wrestlers & doesn’t look great off his back. Horie has zero submissions & has never been submitted. He looks to slow down in the later rounds & his style requires a lot of explosion. I expect this fight to play out on the feet. Horie will need to catch Dawodu with a big counter & put him out. He has to use lateral movement hit & angle, and not get backed up.
This seems like a set up fight to me. Dawodu is one of the top Canadian prospects and it looks like the UFC is trying to build him up. He is facing a debut fighter as the final fight leading into the PPV on the free portion of this card. Usually, they throw a bigger fight there to sell the PPV, but this seems like they are selling a striking battle with a guy in mind they would want to win. Both guys are strikers, so I don’t see either looking for takedowns in this spot. Both have KO power as well, but I think that is the only path for Horie where I expect Dawodu to land the higher volume, the harder shots, and just being the more dominant striker all around. If he can avoid the KO, I think he the win here if it hits the scorecards, but I think Dawodu knocks him out in the 2nd round.
This is a weird one for me. I am picking Dawodu by knockout, so I want to roster him. However, there are just too many guys I like more, and we are purely relying on a knockout from Dawodu for him to be on the optimal lineup. So, my preferred play here is actually Horie. If Horie wins, it is probably going to be a finish. If he finishes at his price, then he has a good shot for the nuts. I don’t think it’s likely that he wins but it’s a boom/bust play and that is what we target in GPPs. I wouldn’t want to use him in cash games, but I think he is a decent GPP punt that can allow you to get the Cyborg’s and Holloway’s into your lineups. Either way, this is a GPP fight and I don’t expect either guy to be highly owned. I am going to have more Horie than Dawodu for sure, but I won’t have a lot of this fight in general.
Winner – Hakeem Dawodu via 2nd round (T)KO
Viviane Araujo $9,100 vs Alexis Davis $7,100
Viviane Araujo
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Cerrado MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 30
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -230
Viviane Araujo is making a quick turnaround after an epic UFC debut. She was up two weight classes, took the fight on short notice, and got a third-round knockout over a ranked opponent. She has trained at American Top Team but stayed in Brazil at Cerrado MMA for this matchup. Araujo is extremely aggressive. She walks opponents down, throwing hard jabs & straight-right hands. She is light on her feet with very nice movement, switching stances & darting in & out. She is super-fast. She has very nice leg kicks. She throws good one-twos & has big power in her hands. She has a nasty jab, overhand right or jab, left hook combo. She has solid hooks in close range & very fast hand speed. She will load up on huge uppercuts. She knocked Bernardo out with one punch in her last fight. In her fights in Pancrase she won her previous two by swelling the eyes shut of her opponents. She does major damage when she lands. Her kicks are very nice also. She has nasty round & front kicks to the body. She will mix in spinning kicks & head kicks also. Her kicks are extremely fast. When she gets her range, starts backing opponents up, switching stances & keeping the volume high, she’s a problem. She is hittable herself but doesn’t fear getting hit & returns right back. She also is heavy on her lead leg which leaves her susceptible to leg kicks. She is much better going forward than backwards. In her one loss she was knocked out by UFC fighter Sarah Frota. She has a similar matchup here to the fighter she fought last. Davis & Bernardo are both fighters who are willing to eat shots to get takedowns & not the greatest strikers. Araujo should be in better shape with a full camp & much faster than Davis. On the feet, I see Viviane lighting Alexis Davis up. Araujo has 3 career KO/TKO’s all in her last three fights.
Viviane Araujo is a great grappler. She is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu with strong wrestling, offensively & defensively. She fought a big, strong black belt in Jiu-Jitsu in her last match & defended all the takedown attempts. Bernardo had previously been able to takedown top 15 opponents such as Marion Reneau & Irene Aldana, and this was up a weight class. Araujo’s takedown defense looks top notch. She had very heavy hips & a great whizzer. She will reverse the takedown into top position for herself. She was able to take the back of Bernardo more than once in her last match in the scramble after defending the takedown. If she does get taken down she is active off her back with sweeps & subs. She will attack armbars & leg locks. She has very good blast doubles herself & is very aggressive with ground & pound. She will move to dominant positions with ease also. She has 4 career submissions & finished all 7 of her wins. Araujo has never been to decision, but she had the cardio to get a third-round knockout on short notice in her last match. Viviane is going to want to move early, use lateral movement & catch Davis with leg kicks & punches coming in. Davis will not sit back like Bernardo did, so I think Araujo will have to move, break her down a bit & then go forward. I also think it may be a good idea to hit a blast double if possible. Araujo will be tested here & is going to have to be ready for a strong fighter who is going to come forward & take punishment for three rounds.
Alexis Davis
Age: 34
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Csa Gym
From: Canada
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +190
Alexis Davis has been entrenched in the role of gate keeper. She is taking on her third potential future contender in a row. This is arguably a step down in competition, but undoubtedly a step down in the experience level of her opponent. Davis is a pressure fighter who wants to use her strikes to get inside & force grappling exchanges. Her hands aren’t great, but she will try to land the jab and straight-right hand. She will throw overhand right leads. She will throw straight-right hands to the body to a left hook to the head combination. She tends to do a lot of reaching with her punches, instead of cutting opponents off & can be countered due to that. She has good kicks from the outside to the legs and body, but she is a bit stiff. Davis is slow and plodding and doesn’t have great striking defense. She doesn’t move her head and is there to be hit. She is a dog and likes getting hit and will take shots and go to war. She has a great chin. She has 2 KO/TKO’s in her career & doesn’t have great power. She is very tough, but extremely hittable & has been KO/TKO’d 3 times.
Davis is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & is a very strong grappler. She will try to get-upper body clinches and get it to the fence and work with knees. She has good control in the clinch with double underhooks. Davis will not shoot for takedowns much, but she is very good at catching kicks and will take opponents down that way. She has a good ground game and does a good job of getting to the mount and landing shots. She sometimes can get caught in the guard and be inactive on top, and I actually think she is better off her back. She will use a high guard, land hard elbows to the head, and then try to get armbars or triangles. She does a good job of getting the triangle position and sweeping to full mount. She slows down as the fight goes on but knows how to push through. She is good at surviving when she’s hurt and is tough to put away. She has 7 submissions & has been submitted only one time. She has a ton of experience & is a tough out for anyone. Davis is going to come forward, walk down Araujo & try to push her to the fence. I see her trying to come over the top with overhands. If she can get on top of Araujo she is a black belt herself & is going to be the bigger fighter. Davis needs to go forward, back Araujo up near the fence & make this an ugly fight, at range she will be too slow.
Araujo looked amazing in her short notice UFC debut where she knocked out Talita Bernardo cold in the 3rd round. She was 100% in takedowns and 100% in takedown defense in that fight and she put up a solid pace. We also don’t see women knocked out often in the UFC, so she has big power. Davis has been around for a long time now and she has faced some of the top competition and competed for the 135 lb title. She is now 34 though and coming off back to back losses. She does set a high pace on the feet and is decent on the ground as well, but she is too willing to take punches to land her own and I don’t see that going over well in this matchup. Araujo is just as active as Davis and she hits a lot harder so that damage will add up and it will likely show on her face as well. I think Araujo could put her away at some point in this fight, but I will take her to win a clear decision in a fight I expect to mainly play out on the feet.
Araujo is my preferred play here. I like her in all formats and I do want to be overweight on her, but there are a lot of favorites to like this week and I am not sure how much I will be able to afford. I do think she has a high floor and a high ceiling, but I am not sure she can out score the other $9k fighters. I am going to shoot for over 20% of her in my lineups but I really just want to be a bit overweight to what I think the field will be at. I don’t care for Davis much here. I am not against using her in any format, but I don’t see her making my player pool. I think if she wins she would score well, but I think this is a tough matchup for her and I think the only way she finishes is a submission and I wouldn’t want to rely on that. I think she is an OK cash punt, but I don’t think I will have a single Davis LU personally.
Winner – Viviane Araujo via Unanimous Decision
Krzysztof Jotko $8,700 vs Marc-Andre Barriault $7,500
Krzysztof Jotko
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 77”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Poland
UFC Record: 7-4
Fight Matrix: 25
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -160
Krzysztof Jotko got off the snide in his last match & snapped a two-fight losing streak with a dominant win. He used a great game plan in that fight & showed all his skills. Jotko is a good fighter. He is well-rounded, athletic and has good instincts for MMA. He has very loose hands and good hand speed. He is deceptively long to his opponents and hits them with left and right shovel hooks when they think they are out of range. He has good power especially with his right hand and can knock fighters out. He was landing some brutal uppercuts against Uriah Hall and almost had him out of there before a miraculous comeback win for Hall. Jotko has good kicks as well and is very mobile. He keeps opponents at the end of his range and can open up with some wild kicks like spinning heel kicks, but he has a nice roundhouse to the body and can go high to the head as well. He has good defense and does a good job with distance control. Jotko has 6 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes twice. His chin is a concern against a fighter with big power like Barriault.
Jotko is a solid grappler. He has great body locks and good timing on them. He has good single & double legs. He will use the takedown attempts to come up into body lock takedowns. He has very good herky, jerky movement where he will land a couple shots & then shoot and it’s hard to defend. He is methodical in top position & worries more about control over the finish. He took down his opponent in his last fight at will & was able to pass into side control and beat him up. He would get the crucifix position, rain down elbows & looked for several americanas, but couldn’t finish the fight. He swept Thales Laetes, a great black belt and was able to dominate and control him from top position. He has good takedown defense himself and his get-up game is very good showing that in the David branch fight. Branch was able to control Jotko against the fence a bit. I feel if Jotko can get on top of Barriault, he can get to dominant positions & go for the submission. I think if he can get on top & cement position, Barriault will lose power & gas quickly. Jotko only has one submission & has been submitted once, but IMO is the much better grappler.
Marc Andre-Barriault
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Tristar MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record:
Fight Matrix: 77
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +140
Marc Andre- Barriault took a close decision loss in his UFC debut. He landed some good shots on the feet but gave up takedowns that cost him the fight. He is a technical striker & likes to slow down the pace. He has a good jab, both to the head & body, and a nice left hook. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand. He will throw a left hook, right hook, right uppercut combination. He has good hand speed & does a good job of going over & around an opponent’s guard with combination punches. He has decent footwork, but he can be flat footed at times & is heavy on his lead leg. He will allow opponents to back him up and can shell up at times when opponents get aggressive on him. He does have big power & has knocked out his last two opponents. He has 8 KO/TKO’s overall. He has never been finished.
Barriault is an average grappler in my opinion. He is strong in the clinch. He has nasty knees to the body & will throw heavy uppercuts, and hooks to the body. He has a solid double leg. He likes to just control top position & win the round. He is heavy in half guard & will slow cook opponents with short punches & elbows. He will try to trap an arm & let shots go. He has a decent back take. In his last match, he took the mount, showed strong control & finished his opponent brutally with punches & elbows. Barriault’s takedown defense is questionable. He can be flat footed & fighters are able to close the distance & push him against the cage rather easily. He can be out muscled in the clinch, and I have seen him get tossed head over heels more than once when fighters take his back standing. He will attack with a kimura to counter the attempt or create a scramble to stand up. He has improved his takedown defense and has good balance & ability to bounce right back up to his feet. Fighters who have explosive double legs are able to get them. When he gets put flat on his back, I think he can be potentially exploited. Barriault has no submissions & has never been finished.
This should be a close fight on the feet. I think Barriault is probably the more powerful striker and he should be throwing the higher volume as well. Jotko is a technical, point fighter though and he will make it close on the feet, but I think him getting takedowns is going to be his big edge in this fight. If he can keep this fight close on the feet, then I think he can win rounds by getting takedowns and finishing the rounds there. I think Barriault is a live dog here if he can keep the fight standing, but I have to lean with Jotko here and I think he wins at least 2 rounds by getting this fight to the ground and working his ground and pound. I will take him to win a 29-28 decision here, but he isn’t a guy I will be looking to bet at this line.
On DraftKings, Barriault has to be my preferred play here. I think he has finishing potential but it’s their salaries that make me like him more. It will be much easier for Barriault to end up on the optimal with a win than it will be with a guy like Jotko at his price. I am probably full fading Jotko this week because I would rather target other favorites. On a card where I really don’t like many underdogs, that puts Barriault in play for me. I think he is a fine cash play as well because I think he has a solid floor here. I do think Barriault is worth targeting even if you are making 3 lineups. He does have one of the higher ceilings as an underdog if he can finish in round 1, so I want to have 30% or so in my lineups in case that happens. If Jotko wins I think he scores less than 10x and that is why I am going to likely full fade him even though I am picking him to get the W.
Winner – Krzysztof Jotko via Unanimous Decision
Arman Tsarukyan $8,800 vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier $7,400
Arman Tsarukyan
Age: 22
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Armenia
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 136
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -210
Arman Tsarukyan lost his UFC debut, but was extremely impressive. He had one of the best fights of the year against Islam Makhachev pushing him to the limit but losing a decision. He is only 22 years old & training at American Top Team and improving rapidly. Arman looks to be pretty well-rounded. He is light on his feet & good at pushing forward & feinting while bouncing in & out to pressure intelligently. He will throw jabs to the body & head. He will throw a left hook or an overhand left, straight-right hand. He has very nice kicks; inside leg kicks, and round kicks to the body & head. He has nice spinning techniques, such as spinning backfists & spinning back kicks to the body. His boxing is not very good & if you can get by his kicks, you can exploit him in close range. He also is heavy on his lead leg. He did get a nasty head kick knockout in his last match & should be more confident than ever with his striking. Arman has been knocked out one time early in his career. He has 5 knockouts himself.
Arman proved he is an excellent grappler in his last fight. He has good single & double legs. He will get a tight waist & hang on opponents, until he can drag them to the mat. He does a good job of staying connected & when opponents stand up of returning them back down. I have seen opponents attack with pretty good kimura attempts when he’s in top position. He was able to elevate a former opponent & slam his way out of it, showing some big strength. He seems to stay very calm in submission attempts and will slowly work his way out of it. He will land short punches & elbows from the guard. He isn’t a super big threat to finish with strikes in top position, and the most dangerous part of his ground game is his rear naked choke. He showed amazing takedown defense & scrambling ability in his last match. He was able to dig double underhooks & reverse several takedowns of Islam. He was also using a kimura to counter the takedowns as well. Arman has 5 career submissions & has never been submitted.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Age: 30
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Canada
UFC Record: 7-4
Fight Matrix: 38
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +175
Olivier Aubin Mercier has lost two in a row after his four-fight winning streak. He was dominated in his last fight against Gilbert Burns, losing in every facet of the game. He is a tricky southpaw. He has good inside leg & body kicks. He throws a nice right hook, straight-left hand combination. He has a nice jab, and he will double & triple up on it. He has great timing on his left hooks, catching fighters as they close the distance. He has a nasty straight-left hand to the body, he hurt and finished Evan Dunham quickly with it. He has gotten much faster with his hand speed, and it has made him much more dangerous. He also is more comfortable opening up with more techniques, such as high kicks, and spinning back kicks to the body. He only has one TKO in his career, but it was his last win, and he’s growing as a striker. He has a great chin, and never been finished in his career.
Aubin-Mercier is a very strong grappler, and a bruiser for the division. He is very strong in the clinch, he has nice knees to the body and control against the cage. He has strong body lock takedowns, and he does a great job of slowing the fight down by using the clinch when fighters close the distance on him. He has strong double and single legs, and on top he is very strong. He has good BJJ and an opportunistic submission game. He keeps very heavy physically pressure on opponents, forcing them to give their back where he has great back control & rear naked chokes. His takedown defense has been exposed in his last two fights. He has given up 6 takedowns in his last two fights. He is hard to hold down & will work back to his feet, and look for submissions such as kimuras, but I think he will struggle to get out of Tsarukyan‘s grasp. Mercier is still pretty high level as a defensive grappler & has never been submitted even against fighters such as Diego Ferreira & Gilbert Burns. He has 8 career submissions.
Tsarukyan looks like a real solid, young prospect. He had one of the toughest fights he could have taken for his UFC debut fight and he held his own for the most part. Now he is getting a bit of a step down and a matchup where he can really showcase his skills. OAM is a well-rounded UFC vet, but his grappling is the best part of his game. Tsarukyan is a solid grappler himself and he showed it in his last fight that he can stuff takedowns from a dominant wrestler. I don’t know if OAM will have much grappling success in this matchup and I think he is outgunned on the feet. I think Tsarukyan could even initiate some grappling exchanges himself in this fight, but I think he could win and even finish the fight on the feet if he would rather just look to keep it there. I like him to win this fight, but I don’t know if I have seen enough from him to lay 2/1 odds. This will be a good fight to really judge where his skills are at.
Tsarukyan is my preferred play on DraftKings. I like him on the feet and on the ground in this spot and I think he could even score well in a decision win. I am interested in OAM a bit as well because I don’t care for underdogs on this card and OAM is a dog with a shot. I also expect him to be low owned. Again, this could be a week where any win from underdogs could win us $50k because I don’t see many underdogs winning. If only 1-2 dogs win then a 50-60-point win from OAM could put him on the optimal lineup and I will take a few shots at that. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably only use Tsarukyan, but with 20 I would want maybe 3-4 Tsarukyan and 1-2 OAM. I think both sides are playable in cash as well and I do think we see a full 15-minute fight here.
Winner – Arman Tsarukyan via Unanimous Decision
Geoff Neal $9,000 vs Niko Price $7,200
Geoff Neal
Age: 28
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 54
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -345
Geoff Neal is undefeated at 3-0 to start his career & will get a top 15 opponent with a win. Neal seamlessly switches stances and has a nasty straight-left & straight-right hand. He has a nasty jab and will double & triple up on it. He has great distance control, and the ability to slide in & out of range. He will swarm with one-twos when he has opponents hurt, but still keeps his composure & won’t brawl. Opponents seem very surprised at how far out he can hit them, and he has phenomenal extension on his punches. His punches come so fast & clean and fighters don’t see them coming. He had a nasty head kick knockout in his last match, and flashed superstar potential. I feel as long as he stays composed and controls the distance, he will have an advantage on the feet even against a great striker like Niko. Neal has 6 KO/TKO’s and has been finished once by strikes against MW Kevin Holland. I also feel that stoppage was a bit premature.
Neal isn’t much of a grappler, but he is improving with his takedown defense, and is very hard to hold down. He is super explosive, and when opponents get him down he bounces right back to his feet. He is strong in the clinch and will get a double underhook position and land hard knees. He also has nasty elbows. He does a great job of disengaging the clinch when fighters put his back against the cage and returning to the center. He has good takedown defense, but fighters have been able to get in on single legs against him. He did a great job of defending all the takedowns of Camacho, but he was taken down on his DWCS fight against Chase Waldon. He was also able to get a no hook rear naked choke in his first UFC fight against Brian Camozzi, and I feel if he gets top position he will be very heavy and have strong ground & pound. He needs to stay off his back and off the cage in this fight and keep it standing. I doubt he will get in top position unless he gets on top after dropping his opponent. He has been submitted one time, in his 3rd UFC fight. He has two submissions himself. He has great cardio and can go for all three rounds easily.
Niko Price
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Futures MMA
From: Florida
UFC Record: 5-2-1
Fight Matrix: 46
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +285
Niko Price is a guy who has a bit of a screw loose. He is a crazy, action fighter with brutal power. He has shown the ability to close the show with one shot. He has supreme confidence that he will find the knockout & even when things aren’t going his way he tends to turn the tables. Price has a nice jab and a nice straight-right hand. He has hard leg kicks, and a nice high kick. He will throw front kicks up the middle to the body & head. He has big power in his right hand. He is a bit flat footed, but he has gotten better at using lateral movement and circling away. He doesn’t move his head and can be hit with sharp counters. He will get in his opponent’s face and really put the pressure on them if he sees they feel his shots and is a finisher. None of his UFC fights have seen the final bell. Price has 8 KO/TKO’s & has short range power. He has only been KO/TKO’d once in his career, but he has taken a lot of damage and with his style he relies on his chin. He has been rocked or dropped in a lot of his UFC fights, Alhasson, Brown, Luque, Morono, and Tim Means have all hurt him with shots. He has shown good recoverability, but eventually he will start getting flatlined more.
Niko Price is a solid overall grappler & proven to be dangerous in all areas on the mat. I wouldn’t say he’s the greatest wrestler, and I feel Neal may even have the wresting advantage especially early. Price can be a little sloppy with his entries, especially his double legs. He has good double legs when he times them correctly, but he can shoot them from too far out at times & I feel Neal may be able to reverse. He does a good job of using the singles & double to get his opponent against the cage, transitioning to a body lock & getting the takedown. He definitely is better at getting the takedowns in the clinch & against the cage. When he gets opponents down he likes to work quickly. He has strong G&P and will look for submissions. He has two submissions in the UFC. He does a great job of transitioning to the back mount & getting rear naked chokes. He also has an arm triangle victory over Brandon Thatch. He can be taken down himself, but he is extremely creative & dangerous off his back. He is the only fighter in UFC history to win via hammerfists from the bottom. He was able to trap Randy Brown’s head into place with the instep of his foot and landed some vicious hammerfists knocking Brown out cold. He was able to reverse George Sullivan with an omaplata in his last win & quickly transition to the rear naked choke. He did take some nice G&P shots vs Brown & was cut open with elbows against George Sullivan. I do think that he has to mix it up & use some grappling to win here. Price has 3 submissions & has been submitted one time.
This should be a pretty violent fight. Both guys have some impressive finishes in the UFC and either guy could get a knockout in any round here. I have been super impressed with what I have seen from Neal though and I am going to pick him to get the job done here. On the feet, Neal is going to look way better and land way more. However, Niko has serious power and is a wild man, so Neal has to be careful and avoid the big power shots. Neal is the better striker and does have better striking defense as well, so it is only the KO shot I would be worried about on the feet. Niko should look to land some takedowns and ground and pound here as well because I think the ground would be his best path to victory. He could land some hard ground and pound to try and get a TKO on the ground or he could work for submissions. Neal has stuffed 91% of takedowns so far and he has great strength and balance to help him keep this on the feet. I think Niko could be tough enough to last the whole 15-minutes here, but I think Neal is going to keep this fight standing and I think he gets a knockout at some point in this fight.
These last 3 fights on the card are going to be very important for GPPs. The line for this fight to end ITD is -400 and at their price tags I think there is a great chance for the winner to be on the nuts lineup here. If Price wins, he is a lock for the nuts because it will very likely be a finish. If Neal wins, there is a chance he doesn’t end up on the nuts even if he does finish, but I don’t think that is likely. I would be pretty surprised if he didn’t get more than 10x here in a finish and I do think we see a finish in this fight. Neal is one of my top 3 plays on this card and I will be mixing him in pretty evenly with Cyborg and Holloway. Those are going to be the favorites I play heavily on DK this week and I like them all in all formats. I do prefer this fight for GPPs, but I think Neal is a fine cash play, but Niko is purely GPP because he has a very low floor.
Winner – Geoff Neal via 2nd round (T)KO
Cris Cyborg $9,600 vs Felicia Spencer $6,600
Cris Cyborg
Age: 34
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 69”
Gym: Chute Boxe Long Beach
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-1
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -580
Cris Cyborg is a destroyer who comes in aggressively right from the start. She has a good jab, but she really is always looking to land that right hand. She does a good job of throwing the jab, right hand, then going to the body with punches & back up top. She stands right in the pocket and will unload with left & right hooks to the head & body and absorb return shots with no fear. She lands hard low leg kicks, and she has better head movement to work inside now. Cyborg is going to want to keep the pressure in this match, swarm, push Spencer back to the cage and don’t let her get comfortable. Cyborg has shown in her fight with Muay Thai legend Jorina Baars that she will never quit. She took a hellacious beating early in that fight being dropped by brutal knees and front kicks to the chin. She was able to recover every time and dominated the tail end of the fight proving you have to kill her to put her away. She obviously possesses crushing power, and most girls are not willing to absorb the shots Cyborg throws. Cyborg has 17 KO/TKO’s in 20 wins including 13 of her last 15 wins by way of KO/TKO. She was finished by strikes for the first time in her career in her last match.
Cyborg is an underrated grappler, and she is nasty in the clinch. She has a strong double collar and she will throw opponents around and slam hard knees to the face. She will throw solid elbows as well. Fighters don’t like to be in boxing range against Cyborg, so they tend to try to get in the clinch, where Cyborg will get an overhook, where she will get the collar tie, throw knees, frame & right hand to exit. She does a good job of digging a deep underhook to lift & turn her opponents where she can land punches, knees and big elbows. Cyborg doesn’t look for offensive takedowns much, but she is very good with takedown defense. She usually is much more physically stronger than her opponents, and she is able to deny a lot of attempts with physicality. When she does get taken down, she does a great job of exploding back up to her feet & is very hard to hold down. She has won BJJ tournaments in the past and is well versed on the ground. She did give up mount to Gina Carano, and her back vs Kunitskaya. Cyborg is not a submission threat having 0 in her career. She was submitted in her one loss via heel hook.
Felicia Spencer
Age: 28
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 68”
Gym: The Jungle MMA & Fitness
From: Canada
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: +440
Spencer is a grappler with good kicks, but no boxing. She relies solely on kicks & strikes such as superman punches or superman elbows to get inside. She throws a lot of leg kicks. I feel some of her leg kicks are very lazy & a good striker could counter. She throws a lot of hook kicks & front kicks to the body & head. She will throw a superman punch into a round house kick to the body. She will throw a body kick, left hook or a jab, body kick. Her punches seem like they have really no power at all on them. She will close the distance with elbows. When fighters can back her up, she really doesn’t have much. She isn’t fast or the greatest athlete, but she’s very tough & will continue to plod forward. We haven’t seen her fight really anyone who throws with fire power & it will be interesting how she reacts to the harder shots of Cyborg. This is a striker vs grappler match, and if Spencer can’t get the fight to the mat I think she will definitely lose. Spencer only has 1 TKO on the mat and isn’t a standing knockout threat. She is undefeated tough & rugged with a good chin.
Spencer is a solid grappler, and very strong when she gets in top position. I don’t think her entries into takedowns are the best, but she is very physically strong in the clinch. She has good trips especially against the cage, & nice single legs. She will take the back from standing position. She is very heavy on top & has excellent back takes. She will flatten opponents out, land some punches & then lock in the rear naked choke. She can get a bit overzealous on top & get shucked off. She also can end up on her back being too aggressive going for takedowns & getting reversed. Her takedowns to me really aren’t super great, she really struggled to takedown Pam Sorenson, and was reversed several times. She can struggle to get inside because she doesn’t have dangerous striking & bad defense, so she can shoot some bad takedown shots. Spencer has finished 5 of her 7 wins & has 4 submissions including a nice rear naked choke in her debut.
This is as clear of a striker vs grappler matchup as we are going to see. Spencer is going to want nothing to do with striking in this fight and Cyborg is going to look to avoid takedowns at all costs. I do think Cyborg has the strength to stuff takedowns and/or get back to her feet if she is taken down, but on the feet this fight isn’t even close. Cyborg is going to dominate Spencer ever second this fight is on the feet. There is zero chance Spencer can out strike her and a very small chance she can get a KO, so her only shot in this fight is to land takedowns and submit Cyborg. I don’t see her being able to win a decision through the takedowns, so I think a round 1 submission would be her best chance at a win here. I don’t see that happening though and I think Cyborg overwhelms her on the feet early and puts this fight away in the first couple minutes of the fight. I think she is a great parlay piece here at these odds and if she didn’t lose to Nunes in her last fight I think she would be over a -1000 favorite here.
I fully expect 100+ from Cyborg here and she is going to be in well over half my lineups. She is the only fighter I am interested in for this fight and I will have a full fade on Spencer. If Spencer gets a round 1 sub, then she is going to be on the nuts, but I am willing to take that risk and just load up on Cyborg instead. Cyborg is a great play in all formats and I think she ends this fight early. I think she is a lock in cash as well. I think she is the safest bet for 100+ on this card but I don’t see her having the ceiling that Holloway does. Load up on Cyborg where you can afford her, but you don’t have to lock her into every lineup.
Winner – Cris Cyborg via 1st round (T)KO
Max Holloway $9,400 vs Frankie Edgar $6,800
Max Holloway
Age: 27
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 69”
Gym: Gracie Technics
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 16-4
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -370
Holloway is one of the best strikers in the UFC. He has arguably the best cardio & volume in the UFC. Holloway has a nasty jab, and a very good one-two. He has a very nice left hook & likes to throw a lot of jab, left hook combinations. He will throw jab, left hook, straight-right hand combinations. He will dig to the body with big hooks. He will pull counter excellently with his one-two. He will switch stances mid combination & never allows opponents to rest. He will land a combination, then use his straight-right to move to southpaw and continue the combo with a right jab to a straight-left combo. He has nasty left kicks & jump knees to the body along with hooks & has body shot finishes. He is excellent fighting in close range. He will touch opponents, pull back & counter with return combinations. He has a nasty spinning back to the body. His conditioning and ability to just continue to walk opponents down and drown them with pressure is what makes him an all-time great. He isn’t a one punch knockout fighter, but his volume is something not many fighters can handle. He has 10 KO/TKO’s including 4 in a row. He has a hell of chin, but he is hittable. He puts himself in danger to do damage & Frankie will have his chances to land. He has never been finished by strikes.
Holloway has excellent footwork & while he isn’t a mover he is very hard to shoot against. He has great hips & very good defense against the cage. When he gets taken down, he tends to pop right back up. He has the cardio to defend attempts or find his way back to his feet and be unfazed. He will counter takedowns with guillotines. He doesn’t go for offensive takedowns, and only is in top position if he sweeps or drops opponents. He has shown a strong top game against an already hurt Aldo. He was able to keep top position, earn dominant position & pound out Aldo. Holloway has two submissions & was submitted once by Poirier. He is going to want to control range, keep Frankie at the end of his punches & slowly start to make him wilt.
Frankie Edgar
Age: 37
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Ricardo Almeida Jiu-Jitsu
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 17-6-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +310
Frankie Edgar is a legend of the sport. He is most likely getting his final opportunity at UFC gold here. Edgar is a wrestler, boxer with a black belt, great cardio & durability. He has great footwork and likes to use technical boxing to stick & move, then explode in with combinations or a takedown attempt. He has very good counter hooks, especially the left hook and good leg kicks. I see those being big weapons in the fight. Frankie is fast closing the distance & will fake level changes as he enters to create opportunities to land big overhands & uppercuts. He has been hittable over his career and hurt many times. His recoverability is legendary & he is one of the most durable fighters in the sport. Edgar was finished by Brian Ortega for the first time in his career in his last loss. His chin isn’t the same as it used to be.
Frankie Edgar is an excellent wrestler. He has amazing singles & doubles and some of the best wrestling in the sport. He sets his takedowns up with his strikes seamlessly. When opponents pressure he will just duck under into blast doubles. He has good clinch takedowns also, and snaps opponents down into the front headlock position. He has great control from that position & will look for guillotines. When Edgar gets opponents down, especially against the cage, he will posture up from guard or half guard & rain down G&P. This was last shown against Yair Rodriguez as Frankie pummeled him with G&P until the fight was stopped. He isn’t a big submission threat & only has 3 career submissions, two rear naked chokes & a guillotine. Edgar won’t have to worry about getting taken down here, but he has an excellent guard & get-up game. Edgar has great cardio also & this is a great matchup. He is going to want to test the wrestling defense of Holloway & see if it holds up.
This fight has been in the works for a while now. Both guys fight at a high pace and I don’t expect any boring moments in this fight. On the feet, Holloway is going to have a big edge because he is the better, more technical striker, and he lands almost 7 significant strikes per minute which is crazy for somebody who has as many UFC fights as him. Edgar will be able to hang on the feet here, but he is going to be looking for takedowns and his advantage in this fight is going to be on the ground. Frankie averages 2.47 landed takedowns per 15-minutes and he is good at keeping guys there and landing some solid ground and pound. He mixes in takedowns so well and he is going to need to shoot for them often in this fight and keep Holloway guessing. Max is excellent at defending takedowns and getting up from them, so I do think he is going to keep this fight on the feet more often than not and likely win this fight. He has the style and pressure to break fighters, so he could possibly finish Frankie late, but I think this fight goes all 25-minutes. I do see Frankie having some success with takedowns and can maybe win 1 or 2 rounds, but I have to side with the champion here and I think he wins a unanimous decision after landing a ton of strikes on the feet and adding to his significant strikes record in the UFC.
On DraftKings, this is basically an all-in fight. Max has the highest ceiling on the card and has the ability to put up ~150 DK points. Edgar also sets a high pace and if this goes all 5-rounds he probably puts up 40+ in a loss, and if he wins he will for sure be on the optimal lineup at his price. This is a great stack in cash fight and I do expect well over 100 total points. I am not even against stacking it in a GPP or two. Max is my preferred play here though and he will be one of my highest owned fighters on the slate. If I was making 10 lineups I think I would go 7/3 or 8/2 in favor of Max. I will have more than 20 lineups though, so I will have at least 1 that doesn’t include this fight. I could see a situation where Frankie wins rounds 1 and 2 and then Max wins rounds 3-5 and scores maybe 90 points in a win. I am not sure that would cut it with Cyborg and other possible finishers on this card. But I am going to need more than 20 lineups though before I make one without this fight.
Winner – Max Holloway via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
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