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The Sway Bar: NASCAR DFS Fades and Values for Sonoma 2019

Right turns are back on the menu! Whew what a week it’s going to be in wine country. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.

I am not going to categorize drivers this week, just highlight drivers I think can perform from a DFS perspective. There are so so so many strategies you could employ this weekend, but at the end of the day you need to identify one and stick to it. I am attacking this slate like a restrictor plate, meaning I will focus on place differential. I think the field is going to flip after stage one. Everyone in the top 12 will run the full first segment, where everyone else will pit right before the stage ends, and lead at the start of stage 2. Dominator points are going to be so hard to anticipate outside of the first stage, so we turn to the devil we know instead of the devil we don’t.

Kevin Harvick – This is nearly a layup. Harvick is probably the best Sonoma driver in the field and will start 23rd, and will likely be in the top five all day.

Erik Jones – Jones is by no means a road course ace, but he is not as bad as his weekend thus far would indicate. He starts 32nd, but has finished in the top ten 75% of his Cup road attempts. He even has a road course win in the truck series a few years ago. Love the play.

Brad Keselowski – Brad K is a great Watkins Glen driver, but has never quiet impressed when it comes to the finesse of Sonoma. Alas, he has top ten speed and of course the experience to impress against a 22nd place starting spot. Like this play, but don’t go overboard.

Kurt Busch – Despite what some may see as an uneventful weekend so far for Kurt Busch, I have a hard time not working him into a good percentage of my lineups. Kurt, who starts 16th, has been a staple inside the top ten at Sonoma over the years, and is a former race winner. 2019 has been really good to Kurt Busch as he continues to be one of the best Chevy riders in the field. This is close to one of my favorite plays of the weekend. I think KB competes for a win.

Clint Bowyer – Clint is getting a little more attention then I would have hoped this weekend, so his ownership will likely be up. Alas, he is still a very good play as he rolls off 14th. He is a great Sonoma driver and has been among the best cars in the fields thus far in practice. I wouldn’t go overboard with Clint, but I think he is a good play to work in a few lineups.

Parker Kligerman – Value is kind of tough to find this week so we will have to dig deep. Parker is a decent road course driver, an accolade he happily showed off with an impressive final practice performance. He starts 29th, which is about as high as I would be comfortable playing him from.  I think a top 20 is plenty realistic for the underdog.

Paul Menard – Menard starts 24th, but should easily be inside the top 20 all day. He is very competent at Sonoma, and if he can keep it on the payment can even compete for a top ten.

Ross Chastain –  Punt of the week. Chastain will take his first laps at Sonoma (quite literally, I believe) on lap one on Sunday, as he is competing in the truck race tonight atGateway. Alas, he will start second last and is good enough on road courses to at least give us a shot at a top 25. This is a very light play, as there is a TON of variables.

So there it is folks. Those are my favorite play this weekend. If your looking for other guys to give exposure to I don’t mind Bowyer or Keselowski, but both have there issues in terms of starting spot and ability, respectively.  Keep an eye on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed upand get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.