Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr.
Congrats to multiple DFS Army members on great weeks!
Review from last week
$11k and up (Rory McIlory, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson)
In this $11k and up I ended up using DJ the most, 6% above field average in the $5, Brooks next at 3% more than field average and Rory next 3% above field average. DJ was my favourite, but I had lots of confidence in all three, I felt that instead of diverting away from one in particular I could go heavy on certain lower salaries while trying to be right around the field up top with all players looking great coming into the event. This worked for the most part as all three made the cut and Rory ended up winning in a landslide.
$9K and up (Brandt Snedeker, Henrik Stenson, Scott Piercy, Webb Simpson, Justin ThomasP, Matt Kuchar)
Henrik and Webb were my favourite to start the week and that continued into the start of play as I remained overweight on both. The sharps agreed as these two were #1 and #2 in ownership in the $444. This worked out well with Webb having the #3 score for the week and Stenson finishing with a top fifteen performance.
Jim Furyk – DK: $8800
I liked Furyk upon first look, with the hope that ownership would remain low due to pricepoint. As the week went on and it became apparent that Furyk would carry a bit of weight I decided to be underweight. Furyk ended T27 but did not score quite as well as he only put up 13 birdies over 4 rounds.
Adam Hadwin – DK: $8300
Although I unfortunately found myself more on Bud Cauley within this range I did come around to Hadwin due to our research station showing favourable splits over his last 10 rounds.
Sungjae Im – DK: $7900
Although I wish I could say I also changed my mind on Im, that was not the case this week. Im put together an incredible 4th round that resulted in him finishing with the 5th highest fantasy point total for the week – unfortunately I had none of that.
Joaquin Niemann/Alex Noren – DK: $7700
I still liked both, which ended up working out pretty bad as although both made the cut neither would have helped you much with others in same high $7k outperforming these two.
DFS Army Pricing – Use code PGA for 20% off each and every month you are a member!
Course Preview
In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.
- Pebble Beach this week, which we have seen time and time again, this course tests just about every aspect of a player and as a result we often find complete players finishing atop the leaderboard
- With incredibly small greens the importance of SG: Approach is magnified
- SG: Around The Green also gets a U.S. Open bump as we are seeing much more difficult conditions than what we are used too, I am sure you’ve seen a few of the videos displaying the length of the rough.
- As always, players will need to avoid a collapse and take advantage of the par fives, something winners like Dustin Johnson and Jason Day have been able to do successfully in the past
- Playing in Pebble Beach, California this is one of the weeks where weather can become much more significant than usual. Taking guys who have shown a history to outperform the field in rough weather and/or looking for an advantageous am/pm split could be a huge key to success this week. On the other hand, if weather effects are rather minimal there can also be an advantage in taking what, on the surface may look to be the players in the ‘weaker draw’. I’m sure you’ve all seen it, many message boards and analysts will go on about the weather only for you to find out on Saturday there was essentially no stroke difference between waves – if we’re in that sort of situation there can be opportunity to get some guys at a very low ownership %.
Have you played Monkey Knife Fight yet? The props are a ton of fun! And if you sign up through here you can get a FREE Month of DFS Army VIP membership!
Interesting Plays
In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel
$11K and Up (Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson)
Another major and another field where we see Brooks and DJ as the top two salaries. You can’t say enough about Brooks in Majors when the difficulty and intensity is ramped up. Similarly, although he hasn’t had the recent wins DJ more or less continues to find himself at the top of the leaderboard too. We did not see the best out of either of these two at the Canadian Open but I would not be worried at all about that heading into this event. As of now my strategy will be to likely try to be a little overweight on both relative to the field.
$10K and up (Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay)
With these four and the top 2, it’s really hard to advise against any of these guys, especially the way they are coming into this event. Tiger has a win and a top ten with a missed cut in between, McIlroy just won, Spieth has three straight top tens and Cantlay just won and has three straight top three finishes. I want to take a bit of a stand and try to likely be a bit overweight on Cantlay, I think the savings allows for greater flexibility with the rest of your teams. Other than that I will update in my final notes as the week progresses.
$9K and up (Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Francesco Molinari)
In this group I absolutely love Jason Day upon first look and think he will end up being one of my core plays on the week. Day fits this course well and I think the missed cut could give you a big chance to potentially be significantly overweight compared to the field without having to go all-in on a guy with such an elite field. Of course, like the rest of the guys up top, you can find a good enough reason to roster any of these guys, Rose is another one I will likely be overweight on.
Standouts for me
Hideki Matsuyama – DK:$8800
I have been on the Hideki train for the last few months having essentially been overweight on him every week he has tee’d it up sense February. This has worked out well for me with no finish worse than T33 and three top 10’s in his last nine appearances. Only thing working against him for me is I think putting at Pebble gets a little bump in importance and Hideki certainly does not have the putting down right now.
Adam Scott – DK: $8600
Coming in playing terrific golf with four straight top twenty’s and a second two weeks ago. Tee-to-Green has been fantastic and I hope he can keep it rolling as I will very likely be overweight
Webb Simpson – DK: $7700
After last week I can see Webb likely being one of the chalkiest players this week but he is playing too well for me to ignore. After a second place at the Canadian Open it’s hard to ignore Webb at this price.
Henrik Stenson – DK: $7600
Another guy who based on price will be chalky but I want to have a part off.
Erik Van Rooyen – DK: $6900
Aside from one missed cut Van Rooyen has been on fire. I don’t like the lack of experience at Pebble but its going to be tough to get anyone who checks all of the boxes for under $7k.
Cash Game Review
I will end each article going over my double-up cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week
The Team (11-8) – Current Streak 1 win
I ended up with two teams this week as I liked quite a few guys and I felt I minimized my risk by using the same core and switching out a few guys
Team #1 win
Webb Simpson – T2
Henrik Stenson – T8
Adam Hadwin – 6
Erik Van Rooyen – T20
Graeme McDowell – T8
Nick Watney – MC
Despite a missed cut from Nick Watney my team was very comfortably in the money with five finishes inside of the top 20. I started with the decision to fit in Stenson and Simpson up top, I felt both provided terrific value and I did not have to sacrifice the rest of my team to do so. By adding Nick Watney, who I was very comfortable with, this allowed me to still build out a solid team with the remainder of my picks. Hadwin came next as he really grew, on me while the week progressed. In taking Hadwin I was left with McDowell and Rooyen who both fit easily into place and allowed me to roster a team I was completely comfortable in.
Other DFS Army PGA Golf Tools and Articles
DFS Army VIP Members also have access to our PGA Cheatsheet!
DFS Army VIP Members also have access to our DFS Army Domination Station Lineup Optimizer!
DFS Army VIP Members also have access to our Euro Tour Cheatsheet!
Be sure to sign up to our DFS Army VIP Membership in order to utilize our custom Domination Station projections, PGA spreadsheets and access to chat with Taco, myself and many other proven winners. Use Coupon Code “PGA” to receive 20% off all of this PGA content as well as content for MLB, NBA, NFL and every other DFS sport your heart desires.