Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We visit our first road course of the season, and like most races, this one will present unique quirks and challenges that we can plan around and take advantage of to find some leverage against the field. I love cash games here too, so don’t neglect those!
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.
Sonoma Raceway
Ah, Sonoma. Home of beautiful weather, fine wine, and a fun road course that we only get to see once a year. This has been a fairly predictable race in the past, and with this new 2019 rules package, I think it’ll be even easier, so I expect to see some winners today!
Lineup construction/correlation
One of the reasons I love Sonoma is because there are so few laps to go around. That places a lot of emphasis on finishing position and place differential and a lot less on dominator points. For GPP, all of them are going to be important, but for cash games, this is one of those races where we can easily cash without needing to nail the main dominator(s). Take advantage of this, and give those cash ladders a workout!
Balanced and stars & scrubs lineups are in play in all formats (I know s&s sounds a little backwards since there are only 90 laps, but the stars portion refers to the bigger place differential plays, not the regular dominators). Either way you go, load up on those hybrids, as they are your main source of a high ceiling, no matter how the race plays out.
The regular dominators are certainly in play here, though the race calc only calls for one of them at the most. That’s easy enough to go by, so just create a rule to avoid stacking too many of the front-runners and load up on those starting a bit deeper in the field.
You can also just as easily make some non-dominator lineups, because there’s a decent chance that Larson will waste a decent chunk of them (and possibly another driver will do the same), leaving the only ceiling available to the rest of the field to come from finishing position and place differential.
Hybrids
As always, the hybrids lead the way, and Harvick is the main one. Not only does he have one of the best chances at at top-5 here, he has plenty of dominator potential as well, adding to his already high ceiling with his starting position. Keselowski and Kurt aren’t too far behind him, and Bowyer actually has the best history here, as well as some dominator potential.
Feel free to mix & match and stack these four however you see fit. I can almost guarantee that we’ll see at least one of them in the winning lineup today, and perhaps two or more of them. There is no wrong way to use them this week.
Dominators
So here’s the deal with Larson – every time we come here he likes to go and qualify really high or take the pole, and make people think he’s going to have this great race. People play him, they get burned, then they tilt. You see, he does really well here…when there’s nobody else on the track around him! Once the race gets going, he gets bounced around in traffic, never recovers, then finds a finishing position somewhere deep in the field. It’s like clockwork. I’m calling for a complete fade of him like I do every time he shows up at a road course. I encourage you to do the same.
As for dominators I do like, I like Truex and Hamlin the most for their likelihood of leading. Like I mentioned in my notes, this is a good place to take some shots with Hamlin since there aren’t many tracks where we can reasonably expect him to dominate.
Kyle Busch and Elliott are next, and while I don’t love their chances of dominating, I do like them, so feel free to get some exposure to them too. I would avoid stacking any of these four drivers together.
Studs
Jones leads the way here by a quite a bit and is likely to be a chalky option. I know he’s let some of you down this season, but that’s why we hedge. Default here in cash games, and if you’re worried about him screwing you over again, fade him in GPP. A chalk bust in cash won’t hurt a ton, but fading a chalk bust in GPP will give you a huge advantage. Or, you can just eat the chalk here and move on, as he is one of the best plays on the entire board and he only needs a top-15 to be in the winning lineup.
Almirola is next in line, and if it weren’t for Jones starting so deep, I would have ranked Almirola a bit higher. He’s still a great play though, and I actually don’t mind stacking these two together if you want to be a little different.
Johnson is next, and while he’s a decent GPP play in a vacuum, it’ll be rather difficult for him to outscore the other two. With that in mind, I’d lean towards fading Jones/Almirola wherever you use Johnson, as they’ll need to dud in order for Johnson to be in the winning lineup. I don’t love the chances of that happening, so I’d be a little careful here.
Value studs
Austin is my favorite value stud and I like him in all formats, especially GPP. He saw a pretty decent price reduction, and is priced well below what his floor/ceiling is here. Newman is fine for cash too, though I’d prefer to pay down for Austin and use that money somewhere else.
Hemric makes a good GPP alternative, or you can take them both together. He did well at road courses in Xfinity, and I think this is one of those weeks where we can take some shots with him in the cup series and have a pretty decent chance of it paying off.
Bowman has shown he can finish in the top-10 here, but I think his ceiling could realistically include a top-5, so be sure to have some exposure to him in GPP (he’s fine to stack with another value stud). Stenhouse is next in line (and could really pay off if these other value studs lay a dud), and Menard is last (I don’t mind just fading him).
Value
There are a handful of decent GPP options here, though I can’t say I like any of them for cash games.
Tifft and DiBenedetto have the highest ceilings of this group. Tifft does well at road courses and I think he has the higher ceiling (and better chance of reaching it). DiBenedetto has a similar ceiling, but as we’ve learned, it’s really hard to figure out if/when he’s going to have a decent day or not. I hate calling anybody a gamble, but he really is.
Preece and Ragan are starting near their ceilings and Ty Dillon hasn’t had a ton of success here, though he does have a little bit higher ceiling thanks to his starting position (though it’s not as high as Tifft’s ceiling).
Punts
Kligerman looks to be the safest punt for cash purposes, so default to him there.
The rest are all sort of hopeful GPP punts/pivots. Chastain and Sorenson aren’t very exciting road course racers, though they probably have a better chance of scoring something decent than the others do.
As for those super-punts, it’s hard to call any of them a better play than another, so the best bet might just be to let the DS sprinkle them around for your top-heavy lineups. If you use them, be sure to load up on the higher scoring hybrids to get the most out of them.
Stacks
Outside of Harvick with Bowyer and/or Almirola, I don’t really like any other team stacks this week, as this is more of an “individual performance” track (i.e. Penske can’t help push each other to the front here like they can at some other tracks).
Pivots
As always, pivots are a main focal point, so no matter how much chalk there is, we’ll always have some good GPP pivots to leverage with.
Mix and match the hybrids as much as you can. They all offer high floors and ceilings and like I mentioned earlier, I’m calling for at least one of them to be in the winning lineup, and possibly two or more.
The dominators are pretty straight forward – mix around the main four (Truex, Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Elliott) and avoid stacking them.
Mix and match Jones and Almirola for the studs, and sprinkle around Johnson in lineups you fade both the other two.
Austin and Hemric represent the highest ceilings for the value studs, and you can mix and match the others with or without them.
Tifft and DiBenedetto have the highest ceilings for our value drivers, and the other three can be swapped around for them. I can’t say I love this group though, so if you want to be a little boring here to focus on the more important drivers, I wouldn’t blame you.
Our punts are last – look at Kligerman as a primary option in all formats, followed by Chastain/Sorenson (mostly in play due to their starting positions), and then consider the super-punts for top-heavy lineups. If you go that route, be sure you actually take advantage of their cheap salaries! Don’t grab a super-punt just to load up on a handful of dominators – that would be silly. Instead, focus on the hybrids or other high-ceiling pivots that don’t need to dominate to reach a high score.
Closing thoughts
Not a whole lot left to say here. Remember to play those cash ladders, hedge, and don’t tilt until it’s over! There are only 90 laps, so don’t go into this one with the mindset of a 500 lap short track. Adapt and overcome!