Donuts to Dollars

The GPP/MME playbook is more or less a foundation to build upon for your Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) tournament strategy and mass-multi entry (MME) adventures. The following approach is how I am going to MME the main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. Hit me up on Twitter  @DFSnDONUTS and you can also find me on YouTube | Twitch  | iTunes with supplemental commentary and teaching.

MLB DFS Pitching Pool Strategy for MME

Steven Matz is in a scary spot against a strong hitting team. But in the month of June over 214 plate appearances, the Phillies have been terrible against lefties. They have a 21.5% strikeout rate (not terrible though) but have a miserable 0.153 ISO and 0.298 wOBA with just an 81 wRC+. I think he’ll be low single-digits in ownership because the Phillies have a healthy 5.3 implied run total at the open. Embrace the volatility!

Zach Eflin faces a Mets offense that is buoyed by Pete Alonso and his 27 home runs. Eflin has pitched well as of late, racking up 37, 49, and 44 FanDuel points on the back of 29 Ks in 26.1 IP. The Mets are middle of the road in the month of June with a .313 wOBA and .188 ISO. Eflin doesn’t cost an arm and a leg and does have decent upside at his price point.

Brad Keller (DK Only) is just 6k on DK and does have some upside. The 23-year-old former 5th overall draft pick has only given up 13 HRs in 238 IP in his career. That’s pretty fantastic. He does struggle a bit more against lefties and the Indians can load their lineup with lefties. He’s dirt cheap with upside and we need that in order to jam in 50-75% 5-man stacks of the New York Yankees.

Lucas Giolito has a 34.1% strikeout rate in a small 44 plate appearance sample size against these Boston Red Sox. I think he’ll go under-owned due to the perceived difficulty of the matchup but the Red Sox continue to disappoint as of late. Gio has 6 wins in 7 starts on the road this season and a minuscule 0.96 WHIP and averages 28.5 DraftKings points per game. His upside is evident and I don’t mind his price tag on either site.

Eduardo Rodriguez averages 20.5 DK PPG at home and a healthy 18.4 DK PPG over his last 10 starts. He’s in good form, he has a winnable matchup against the White Sox, and he is a mid-tier priced player with an upper-tier ceiling.

Jon Gray (FD Only) is plenty of upside at just $8,500 on FanDuel. Against the Giants, he has a quality start and a win bonus upside with healthy strikeout potential. In his 24.2 IP in the month of June, he has 29 K’s and has held opposing teams to one or no runs in 2 of his 4 starts.

Single Entry GPP Pitchers

Jon Gray is always someone I like to target on FanDuel when he’s on the road. He’s a very good pitcher and his price tag always seems to be mid-tier. His upside is in the 50’s and his matchup is fantastic.

Tier 1 MLB Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings

These are the teams I want to stack with my highest exposure. Whether you decide to use the controlled stacks (example below) or the randomized stack exposure (as I do, the example provided), I’ll have my highest percentage on the Tier 1 teams). Daily fantasy sports are not just about being contrarian. A key strategy is to also have contrarian exposure to your plays.

New York Yankees 50-75%

They are going to be chalky, make no mistake about it. They have a massive 6.5 implied run total at the open and are -236 favorites. Not only do they have a handful of hitters who are hitting the ball very well but they’re facing one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball in the month of June. In his 18.2 innings pitched in the month of June, Sanchez has put 40 men on base, given up 6 home runs, and 23 earned runs. On top of all of this, he is only throwing 60% of his pitches for strikes and allowing a 93 MPH exit velocity and a 41% hard-hit rate over his last three starts. Don’t get cute!

Tier 2 MLB Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings

These are the teams I am generally using to hedge my pitcher investment and/or don’t have a clear read on what might happen but understand extreme outcomes are possible. My strategy is to have the volatile stacks paired with the Tier 1 stacks that have a higher success rate.

Cleveland Indians 20-40%

They are crushing RHP this month with a .338 wOBA and massive .250 ISO with 21 HRs in just 429 plate appearances. The Indians can actually have 7 or 8 lefties in their lineup on Monday and I think they’re going to get the bad Brad Keller rather than the good one we have seen in 3 of his last 4 starts. Regression to the mean is not a good thing for Keller. Although, it is for the Indians hitters!

Philadelphia Phillies 20-40%

Okay, so I said to use Matz and now I am saying use the Phillies, what’s up with that? This is a classic hedge. While the Phillies have sucked against lefties this month, Mats has horrendous road splits in 2019. It’s glaringly obvious he is uncomfortable on the road, too. Check this out the splits below.

36 IP at home
9 ER
3 HR
1.14 WHIP
.228 BA
2.25 ERA
18.7 DK PPG

37.2 IP on the road
26 ER
12 HR
1.59 WHIP
.288 AVG
6.21 ERA
7.8 DK PPG

Chicago Cubs 20-40%

Julio Teheran had been a beacon of consistency going into his last start against the Mets. He absolutely imploded in that game, giving up 6 ERs and a home run in just 4 IP. Now he faces the Cubs in Wrigley Field when it’s warm and there is a mid-teens wind blowing out to the bleachers. We know by now that when it’s windy and blowing in then pitchers are in play, when it’s windy and blowing out then stack the hitters.

Atlanta Braves 30-50%

This team won’t slow down. They now face Jon Lester in Wrigley and he’s been trending downward as of late. Over his last three starts, he has allowed a 51% hard-hit rate and a 95 MPH exit velocity. You can’t do that to the Braves and get away with it. Not right now at least, they’re just way too hot. And let me end this writeup on this: In those 3 starts and 17.2 IP, he has given up 13 ERs and 7 HRs. Yikes…

Colorado Rockies 30-50%

This is the team that I think can win a tournament on Monday. They have just a 4.3 IRT and Drew Pomeranz is on the mound. I think this IRT moves up towards 4.8 or so before lock but I don’t think that’s high enough. The following splits are the Rockies versus left-handed pitching in the month of June (282 plate appearances).

0.333 AVG (1st – tied with Mets)
0.387 wOBA (2nd)
0.183 ISO (17th)
39.6 Hard% (11th)

This is my personal strategy to use the DFS Army Domination Station optimizer for MLB MME

1. Cut all pitchers out of my player pool that I know I 100% DO NOT WANT

   1. Add in all the pitchers I am okay with the optimizer using my playbook and uncheck all the other pitchers.

2. Identify all teams I want to stack

   1. If using controlled stacks then create my player pool of hitters for MME
   2. If using the randomized stacks (which I do) then I begin to create percentages for all my favorite teams to target adding up to 160-180%
   3. Leave 20-40% stack exposure to allow the optimizer to fill in some random optimized stacks according to your pitcher pool to have some unbiased lineups

3. Prepare my 150 entry settings

   1. 3 uniques
   2. tournament mode
   3. DFS Army points
   4. Make sure allow opposing pitchers is unchecked
   5. Maximum exposure cap of 60% is how I roll with it. The higher the exposure cap the more “all-in” you will be on a player or two. Sometimes when I feel great about my pitching pool or stacking tiers I will run it at 80-100%.
   6. Set random stack setting to 4-3 for FanDuel and 5-2 for DraftKings and CHECK “PRIORITIZE LINEUPS”
4. Run the optimizer
   1. Look at the batters used in the stacks. Did I create 100 Houston lineups and only get 5 George Springers? Okay, use the like/love/adore buttons or boost his projection until I get more of him. Did I get 50 out of 50 Boston stacks with Jackie Bradley and no J.D. Martinez? Boost Martinez and potentially use the dislike buttons on Bradley until he’s a bit lower and Martinez is involved.
   2. You have to tinker a bit to get the higher upside guys sometimes ^^^
5. Re-run the optimizer until you get what you’re looking for
   1. Go watch Netflix until the games are over and your daily fantasy sports entries are final
   2. Make a plate of chips and salsa, too
      I slapped this video together during the kiddos’ nap time to show you the ease of use with the DFS Army optimizer. I hope it helps seeing it on video in conjunction with the article

Closing

I really hope this helps you get your feet under you at the beginning of this MLB season for Daily Fantasy. Please subscribe to me on the following platforms and I would love to hear from you on Twitter or in our member service in my #Donut-Shop coaching channel!

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Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
Twitter me @DFSnDONUTS