Donuts to Dollars

The GPP/MME playbook is more or less a foundation to build upon for your Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) tournament strategy and mass-multi entry (MME) adventures. The following approach is how I am going to MME the main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. Hit me up on Twitter  @DFSnDONUTS and you can also find me on YouTube | Twitch  | iTunes with supplemental commentary and teaching.

MLB DFS Pitching Pool Strategy for MME (3-5% minimum exposure set on each)

Dylan Bundy has 8, 4, 6, and 8 strikeouts in his last four starts and has looked great for 6 weeks now. He has a winnable matchup against the Mariners. He has scored 33, 34, 24, and 40 FanDuel points in his last four while only getting one win bonus. I think the Orioles can win this game which will be a nice boost. On DraftKings, he has 21.55, 11.85, 18.50, and 17.25 points with just the one win. He faces the Rangers, Astros, Tigers, and Red Sox over that span and even scored 12.55 against the Yankees in the 5th start if we go back one more game. He’s my favorite arm on the slate for upside and low-ownership.

Nestor Cortez Jr. (DK ONLY) is just $4,000 on DraftKings and he does not need to pitch as many innings as he did last game in order to smash value. He has high strikeout potential and because of his price tag, it won’t take much for him to destroy value. The real bargain here is that you pay the minimum price for a guy who might get similar points as the entire 6-8k price range and also have several thousand dollars extra for the optimizer to jam in amazing stacks.

Zac Gallen has a 0.71 WHIP with 112 K’s in 91.1 IP while walking just 17 hitters in the Minors. He has tremendous upside, the Cardinals can go ice cold in a hurry, and he’ll be very low-owned outside of people in the know (like the ones reading this article!). He’s my second favorite target on the entire slate. Embrace the volatility that comes with the unknown.

Framber Valdez has been nothing short of incredible through his first two starts with the Astros. He has a wretched matchup against 7/8 right-handed hitters for the Yankees that could all finish with 30 home runs or more if they had regular at-bats. Framber is a nice leverage option against the powerful Yankees and likely semi-popular, too.

Adam Wainwright has been pitching quite well as of late. He also gets to face the Marlins impotent offense. He scored 20.70 and 32.60 DraftKings point in the two games prior to a sub-par outing in Chicago against the Cubs in his last start. I expect him to get back on track in this matchup.

Tyler Chatwood (Both sites – Only use for 150 max) has pitched 4 or more innings three times this season and score in the teens on DraftKings each time. While he struggles with walks his price tag is just 5.5k on FanDuel and 4.6k on DraftKings. He has upside here at his price. He’s the perfect MME target due to his low-floor and value due to his price tag. Think value here because that’s the type of play he is. Nothing more.

Madison Bumgarner (FD ONLY)  has looked decent this season and is in play against the Dodgers as a low-owned tournament option. He recently held them to 1 ER in 7 IP on June 9th. Earlier this season, he threw 6 IP and struck out 8 on May 1st. And if we look back to April 2nd, we see that he went 6 IP and struck out 4 more. So across 19 IP, he has 17 Ks and has allowed just 2 ER. Fade the Dodgers!

Frankie Montas has significant upside at just 10k on DraftKings and 9.3k on FanDuel! He has a quality start in 7 out of his last 8 starts and 58 Ks in his last 48.2 IP (8 starts). While the win might be hard to get against Charlie Morton, he does have significant upside with 31.30, 36.50, and 27.30 DraftKings points in 3 out of the last 5.

Charlie Morton (FD ONLY) has scored 55, 43, 55, 52, and 33 FanDuel points in his last five starts since May 25th. He’s absolutely locked in, tossing a quality start in 5 straight and racking up 4 wins along the way. Similar to Montas, his upside is significant but the win might be elusive due to Montas being on the mound for the Athletics.

Single Entry GPP Pitchers

Zac Gallen or Dylan Bundy are my options for single entry tournaments. They’re both similarly price and both have massive upside at their price tag. I expect both of them to be single-digit ownership on both sites so they’re both in play. On DraftKings, I see no reason why you can’t use them both as SP1 and SP2 BUT if you want, feel free to use one of them and pair them with Nelson Cortez Jr.

Tier 1 MLB Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings

These are the teams I want to stack with my highest exposure. Whether you decide to use the controlled stacks (example below) or the randomized stack exposure (as I do, the example provided), I’ll have my highest percentage on the Tier 1 teams). Daily fantasy sports are not just about being contrarian. A key strategy is to also have contrarian exposure to your plays.

Los Angeles Angels 60-80%

The Angels keep crushing the ball and this team is on fire. Clayton Richard has given up a 56% hard hit rate in his last two starts while giving up 14 hits in just 7.2 IP and walking another 4 hitters. This has lead to 2 HRs and 12 ERs. YIKES. The Blue Jays bullpen has been used a TON this series (and all season) and they’re going to be in a world of hurt and likely have to leave Richard out there for 85-90 pitches even if he’s getting shelled just to give the bullpen a breather. I’ll discuss them during my MME Playbook later today, too.

Minnesota Twins 40-60%

I think the Twins lefties are going to have a field day with Glenn Sparkman. He has given up a 51% hard-hit rate his last two times on the mound and a 95 MPH exit velocity. In his last 18 IP he has given up 4 HRs and 11 ER. He actually pitched 5 innings against the Twins on June 15th, giving up 2 HRs and 4 ERs (5 runs total). The Twins can go nuclear when they’re in the zone together. Love this spot.

Tier 2 MLB Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings

These are the teams I am generally using to hedge my pitcher investment and/or don’t have a clear read on what might happen but understand extreme outcomes are possible. My strategy is to have the volatile stacks paired with the Tier 1 stacks that have a higher success rate.

New York Yankees 20-40%

Framber Valdez has been an absolute robot on the mound thus far. The Yankees have the most potent offense in Major League Baseball against left-handed hitters. They have the potential to hit 5+ home runs on any given night. I’ll pretty much always want exposure to them from here on out and especially against lefties.

Houston Astros 20-40% 

Hedge against the Yankees bullpen day. Last time Cortez Jr. took the mound I had 111 out of 150 entries with him in there. All 111 cashed and my hedge was worthless. However, the Astros can make anybody look silly. Hedge with this offense especially if Cortez Jr. is showing up a ton in your lineups.

Milwaukee Brewers 20-40%

Tanner Roark has good games and bad games but no in-between. He scores over 20 DK points about 25% of the time and single-digit around 40% of the time. If he starts off rocky, he’s in deep trouble against this power hitting lineup with several left-handed bats that can take him yard.

Washington Nationals 20-40% 

Have destroyed Nick Pivetta in 94 plate appearances. They have a massive 0.497 wOBA and 0.402 AVG with just a 17.0% strikeout rate. Unbelievable numbers. Pivetta could be in trouble in a BIG way today and I want some exposure to an offense that has plenty of pop. They might be the team that we look back on when the night ends asking, “Why didn’t I have more of them?”.

This is my personal strategy to use the DFS Army Domination Station optimizer for MLB MME

1. Cut all pitchers out of my player pool that I know I 100% DO NOT WANT

   1. Add in all the pitchers I am okay with the optimizer using and then put 3-5% minimum exposure on my favorite pitchers (the above pitching pool). This ensures that they show up in at least 7-10 out of my 150 lineups.

2. Identify all teams I want to stack

   1. If using controlled stacks then create my player pool of hitters for MME
   2. If using the randomized stacks (which I do) then I begin to create percentages for all my favorite teams to target adding up to 160-180%
   3. Leave 20-40% stack exposure to allow the optimizer to fill in some random optimized stacks according to your pitcher pool to have some unbiased lineups

3. Prepare my 150 entry settings

   1. 3 uniques
   2. optimal mode
   3. DFS Army points
   4. Make sure allow opposing pitchers is unchecked
   5. Maximum exposure cap of 60% is how I roll with it. The higher the exposure cap the more “all-in” you will be on a player or two (which I am not a fan of for MLB right now)
   6. Set random stack setting to 4-3 for FanDuel and 5-2 for DraftKings
4. Run the optimizer
   1. Look at the batters used in the stacks. Did I create 100 Houston lineups and only get 5 George Springers? Okay, use the like/love/adore buttons or boost his projection until I get more of him. Did I get 50 out of 50 Boston stacks with Jackie Bradley and no J.D. Martinez? Boost Martinez and potentially use the dislike buttons on Bradley until he’s a bit lower and Martinez is involved.
   2. You have to tinker a bit to get the higher upside guys sometimes ^^^
5. Re-run the optimizer until you get what you’re looking for
   1. Go watch Netflix until the games are over and your daily fantasy sports entries are final
   2. Make a plate of chips and salsa, too
      I slapped this video together during the kiddos’ nap time to show you the ease of use with the DFS Army optimizer. I hope it helps seeing it on video in conjunction with the article

Closing

I really hope this helps you get your feet under you at the beginning of this MLB season for Daily Fantasy. Please subscribe to me on the following platforms and I would love to hear from you on Twitter or in our member service in my #Donut-Shop coaching channel!

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Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
Twitter me @DFSnDONUTS