Donuts to Dollars
The GPP/MME playbook is more or less a foundation to build upon for your Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) tournament strategy and mass-multi entry (MME) adventures. The following approach is how I am going to MME the main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. Hit me up on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS and you can also find me on YouTube | Twitch | iTunes with supplemental commentary and teaching. You’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports.
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MLB DFS Pitching Pool Strategy for MME (5% minimum exposure set on each)
Eduardo Rodriguez is priced nicely for our MME approach on this Friday night slate. He does not cost an arm and a leg and has significant upside at his price point. He has scored 13.35 or more DraftKings points in 4 out of his last 5 starts and has 34 strikeouts across those 28.1 innings pitched. He’s also held opposing hitters to just a 29% hard-hit rate with a weak and feeble 89 MPH exit velocity thus far in 2019.
Rich Hill has held opposing hitters to just a 91 MPH average exit velocity and has pounded the strike zone on 69% of his pitches this season. He has scored at least 33.00 FanDuel points in 5 straight starts dating back to May 17th and twice has scored 58.00 points. He has a massive floor and ceiling combination and is the ideal MME target if paying up.
Marco Gonzales has had the Athletics number the last couple of seasons. In 93 plate appearances, the current A’s roster has just a 0.287 xwOBA and a 0.213 xBA to go along with a 28.0% strikeout rate. The Athletics have a massive 5.5 implied run total (IRT) which means Gonzales is not only cheap but he’ll be a nice leverage option off the A’s ownership in tournaments.
Lucas Giolito is likely to be the least popular among the other aces on Friday’s main slate. While Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole are also in decent matchups tonight, they are probably going to carry a bit more ownership exposure with them. In 2019 with the juiced baseballs clearly back, pitching has been volatile at best and we’ve learned a while ago (especially in my column) that paying down for pitchers is the way to go in tournaments. However, if we do pay up we should go for the lowest owned elite arm. Numbers and statistics aside (even though they’re very impressive), Lucas is the top target for MME against the New York Yankees. Fear factor alone of the Yankees lineup will keep his ownership low.
Andrew Heaney is still cheap enough to return solid upside at his current price point. He has racked up 28 strikeouts in his last 16.2 innings pitched while allowing just 13 base hits. His issue is giving up home runs, as he’s allowed exactly two in each of his three starts since May 26th. Hedge your investment with the Rays offense in Tier 2 of our stacking targets.
Max Fried looks like he has turned the corner after a couple of poor starts. He went 6 IP and struck out 7 against the Miami Marlins who have been no pushover as of late. Fried’s advanced stats display a pitcher who is pitching exactly the same as he was when he was priced $3,000 higher. Opposing hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and distance are all virtually the same over his last two starts compared to his season-long production. He’s cheap and we can hedge with the Phillies in Tier 2.
Single Entry GPP Pitchers
I am not going to get cute here and I’ll be targeting Rich Hill with confidence in single entry tournaments. In 55 plate appearances against Rich Hill, the Chicago Cubs roster has just a 0.182 wOBA and .137 AVG to go along with a ridiculous 34.5% strikeout rate. He’s had their number and I think he’ll control them again on Friday.
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Specific Daily Fantasy MLB Stacks and Teams to Target for Stacking for GPPs and MME
When I select my stacks I like to run through the trending tab, batter matchups tab, top-10 lists for a bunch of different stats, pricing differential, and the top rated players within the Research Station. I set the FanDuel stacks to 4-3 and the DraftKings stacks to 5-2 in the DFS Army optimizer.
Tier 1 MLB Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings
These are the teams I want to stack with my highest exposure. Whether you decide to use the controlled stacks (example below) or the randomized stack exposure (as I do, the example provided), I’ll have my highest percentage on the Tier 1 teams). Daily fantasy sports are not just about being contrarian. A key strategy is to also have contrarian exposure to your plays.
Houston Astros 30-50%
I really like what Yordan Alvarez has done for this lineup in the middle of the order with Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Springer out of the lineup. He adds some power in the lineup and has looked exceptional thus far in his three games as an Astro. Their 5.2 IRT is strong but I love their upside in a lineup with four left-handed hitters likely to be in the order.
Colorado Rockies 40-60%
Cal Quantrill has not been terrible for the Padres but he is likely to find himself in trouble in Coors Field on Friday. On top of that, the Padres bullpen got some extra work on Thursday so if the Rockies are able to run Quantrill off the mound early, they’ll get to tee off on a tight bullpen. Someone could be the sacrificial lamb over the final two or three innings.
San Diego Padres 30-50%
Jeff Hoffman has a 48% hard-hit rate against him over his last two starts. In Coors Field, that is extremely dangerous where the ball carries. He’s given up 20 hits, 4 home runs, and 14 earned runs in his last 15.2 IP. While the wheels are falling off I want to take advantage with a Padres team that has surprised many with the power they have in 2019.
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Tier 2 MLB Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings
These are the teams I am generally using to hedge my pitcher investment and/or don’t have a clear read on what might happen but understand extreme outcomes are possible. My strategy is to have the volatile stacks paired with the Tier 1 stacks that have a higher success rate.
Minnesota Twins 20-40%
Pretty much whenever they are on the slate they are in play. They have such tremendous power and that is evidenced by their 6.2 IRT currently set by Vegas. While I actually am hoping their exposure by the field is much higher (because I don’t think they hit their ceiling as a team), I would be silly not to have some shares of them paired with my Tier 1 targets.
Saint Louis Cardinals 20-40%
They look impressive on paper against Steven Matz and have solid BvP against him up and down their roster. They have just a 4.1 IRT but we know this team can send multiple balls into the bleachers in a single game. It’s been a while since we’ve seen them explode offensively, too, so I expect their ownership rates to be incredibly low. They have a massive 0.453 wOBA and 0.333 AVG in 72 plate appearances against Matz. The cherry on top? They have just a 13.9% strikeout rate. Yikes!
Cincinnati Reds 10-30%
They absolutely own Jesse Chavez in a very small sample size. However, he’s not very good and the Rangers bullpen can look like a bunch of batting practice arms at times. The Reds are an improbable team to meet their ceiling expectations but they’re certainly in play in this matchup. They have a healthy 5.1 IRT right now and are -160 favorites.
Philadelphia Phillies 10-30%
Max Fried is in a great spot at his price point but I’d be a fool to not hedge that volatile investment with some shares of the Phillies powerful lineup. Their price tags are decent right now, too. This makes their stacks look really nice when paired with a Tier 1 team.
Tampa Bay Rays 10-30%
While I have confidence in Heaney I understand the Rays offense is pesky and can rack up runs in a hurry. Every time they do it I am surprised but they’ve done it all season. With Austin Meadows at the top of the lineup, they will always be a threat on a nightly basis.
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This is my personal strategy to use the DFS Army Domination Station optimizer for MLB MME
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Cut all pitchers out of my player pool that I know I 100% DO NOT WANT
- Add in all the pitchers I am okay with the optimizer using and then put 3-5% minimum exposure on my favorite pitchers (the above pitching pool). This ensures that they show up in at least 7-10 out of my 150 lineups.
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Identify all teams I want to stack
- If using controlled stacks then create my player pool of hitters for MME
- If using the randomized stacks (which I do) then I begin to create percentages for all my favorite teams to target adding up to 160-180%
- Leave 20-40% stack exposure to allow the optimizer to fill in some random optimized stacks according to your pitcher pool to have some unbiased lineups
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Prepare my 150 entry settings
- 3 uniques
- optimal mode
- DFS Army points
- Make sure allow opposing pitchers is unchecked
- Maximum exposure cap of 60% is how I roll with it. The higher the exposure cap the more “all-in” you will be on a player or two (which I am not a fan of for MLB right now)
- Set random stack setting to 4-3 for FanDuel and 5-2 for DraftKings
- Run the optimizer
- Look at the batters used in the stacks. Did I create 100 Houston lineups and only get 5 George Springers? Okay, use the like/love/adore buttons or boost his projection until I get more of him. Did I get 50 out of 50 Boston stacks with Jackie Bradley and no J.D. Martinez? Boost Martinez and potentially use the dislike buttons on Bradley until he’s a bit lower and Martinez is involved.
- You have to tinker a bit to get the higher upside guys sometimes ^^^
- Re-run the optimizer until you get what you’re looking for
- Go watch Netflix until the games are over and your daily fantasy sports entries are final
- Make a plate of chips and salsa, too
I slapped this video together during the kiddos’ nap time to show you the ease of use with the DFS Army optimizer. I hope it helps seeing it on video in conjunction with the article!
What’s Next?
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Closing
I really hope this helps you get your feet under you at the beginning of this MLB season for Daily Fantasy. Please subscribe to me on the following platforms and I would love to hear from you on Twitter or in our member service in my #Donut-Shop coaching channel!
Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
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