What an incredible week. Last Wednesday and Thursday, I took down 5 large tournaments on both DraftKings and FanDuel for a collective 24K profit! I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast.  Click that link to find me on Twitter.  My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Not to sound too braggadocios, but we win.  And, we win a lot.  Yes, MLB has its ups and downs, but proper bankroll management, a consistent process, lots of experience, and constant guidance from coaching produces results.  Period.  I show you this to show you the staff/coaching wins consistently….and we can show you how.  What I also hope you see is that umpires make a difference.  Leveraging them, as you will see below, can give you an edge the rest of the industry barely talks about.  Any edge helps…

Daily Umpire Impact

Today my focus is on the 5 game afternoon slate. I’ll be at the Lubbock Regional watching college baseball all day (Army vs Florida & TTU vs DBU), so I won’t be playing DFS tonight. For the afternoon, we’ve got high temps across the board and some great hitting weather.

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze 

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

 

SF@BAL Shaun Anderson (R)/David Hess (R)

Rob Drake 16.69 K/9  6.50 BB/9  .246 AVG  8.41 R/9

 

KC@TEX Homer Bailey (R)/Lance Lynn (R)

Ryan Blakney 17.35 K/9  5.6 BB/9  .239 AVG  8.1 R/9

 

MIL@DET Brandon Woodruff (R)/Nick Kingham (R)

Phil Cuzzi 16.9 K/9  6.23 BB/9  .248 AVG  8.45 R/9

 

WSH@CIN Erick Fedde (R)/Tanner Roark (R)

Joe West  17.0 K/9  6.77 BB/9  .252 AVG  9.53 R/9

 

DET@ATL Daniel Norris (L)/Mike Soroka (R)

Adrian Johnson 16.88 K/9  6.3 BB/9  .265 AVG  10.18 R/9

 

Congrats to our latest hot streak winner, Arky!  Arky has been with us awhile and it’s great to see him start to hit his stride.  Toss your winners in #winning-lineups for a little shoutout love!

Breakdown

With the high temps and very similar umpires when it comes to K/9 we need to rely more on matchups today. There are certain tendencies we should keep in mind like Phil Cuzzi’s wide expansion of the plate away in Pittsburgh. This discourages me from full stacking the Brewers and makes me want to pay up for Woodruff when I can, but with the high temps lefties from PIT are still in play. Woodruff has had one start with Cuzzi this year on April 10th when he struck out 7 scrappy Angels in 6 innings (w/ 4 ER). In Baltimore, Rob Drake favors the left side of the plate, but not enough to discourage me from using the lefties here. We should attack Hess and the Baltimore bullpen in this game.

Soroka has the biggest question mark on this slate. We know he can really limit damage and has an advanced mindset on the mound, but the question is can he strike out enough Tigers to pay off his slate high salary. I’m leaning towards Woodruff’s discount and K upside even though he will likely give up a couple more runs. On the other side of the Braves game, we have former Jays top prospect Daniel Norris who has shown strikeout ability when he can get his curve under the hands of righties. He’s a laid back guy from Tennesee who grew up playing in the Braves backyard at the East Cobb Complex. Outside of his experience pitching in the Georgia summer heat, it’s a bad matchup and the Braves will likely be the most popular options outside of the Texas lefties.

Overall, I’m leaning towards pairing Woodruff (or Soroka if you want to pay all the way up), and Roark (or Norris if you think his raw talent can get it done for a discount) with the Rangers and Giants lefties or Braves Righties. The Brewers are the top contrarian stack if you pay down on the mound (overall I like sticking to 3 or fewer Brewers in most builds, and not a a full stack).

Top Stacks

Rangers Lefties

Giants Lefties

Braves Righties

Brewers (contrarian)

 

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