I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.
Not to sound too braggadocios, but we win. And, we win a lot. Yes, MLB has its ups and downs, but proper bankroll management, a consistent process, lots of experience, and constant guidance from coaching produces results. Period. I show you this to show you the staff/coaching wins consistently….and we can show you how. What I also hope you see is that umpires make a difference. Leveraging them, as you will see below, can give you an edge the rest of the industry barely talks about. Any edge helps…
Daily Umpire Impact
We’ve got a 6 game slate tonight with all of the umps released. Be sure to pay attention to the bullpen usage in game one of the OAK/TEX doubleheader.
We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”
Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.
Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.
“Hit Mitts”
There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.
“Box Callers”
On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.
The Squeeze
(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)
(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)
COL@NYM Jon Gray (R)/Steven Matz (L)
Mike Winters 16.67 K/9 6.70 BB/9 .261 AVG 10.02 R/9
Winter’s is consistent and fair on the edges. He should have little impact on this game. Play this straight up with the bats you like from either side.
STL@CHC Jack Flaherty (R)/Jon Lester (L)
Manny Gonzalez 15.66 K/9 6.80 BB/9 .266 AVG 10.43 R/9
Manny Gonzalez loves to squeeze the edges. Flaherty throws enough strikes in the upper part of the zone where he can get by, but the matchup leaves a lot to be desired. For Lester, this squeeze can take away his backdoor offerings and I just don’t trust him here. If you play the arms in this game, then you’re playing the wind in Wrigley. If you feel comfortable with that then consider both arms as tournament options.
LAD@SF Rich Hill (L)/Jeff Samardzija (R)
Andy Fletcher 15.77 K/9 6.8 BB/9 .262 AVG 9.72 R/9
Fletcher is a top 5 hitter’s ump, and while he can be inconsistent at times, this makes it tough to trust Samardzija even at home. The squeeze could be on in this game and the Dodgers are my favorite contrarian stack on this slate. Rich Hill is still in play, but I won’t make him a priority at his salary with Fletcher behind the plate.
OAK@TEX Chris Bassitt (R)/Adrian Sampson (R)
Tom Woodring 16.67 K/9 6.46 BB/9 .262 AVG 9.65 R/9
Woodring has a fair zone, and slightly favors the right side of the plate. He also calls about three fewer strikes per game than the average ump. This shouldn’t impact the game much overall. Being game two of a doubleheader where at least 6 arms were used, this game could break the slate. Bassitt has some strikeout ability, so I’d prioritize A’s stacks against the weaker Rangers bullpen here. Still, the Rangers make for great one-off power plays or to complete a game stack.
WSH@SD Max Scherzer (R)/Eric Lauer (L)
Marvin Hudson 16.24 K/9 6.99 BB/9 .252 AVG 8.81 R/9
Hudson is the type of neutral ump we want to confirm for Scherzer tonight. He is inconsistent as evidenced by his low R/9, but he tends to make those inconsistent calls off the plate on the edges. He won’t hurt Scherzer tonight and overall Max is worth paying up for here.
SEA@LAA Yusei Kikuchi (L)/Noe Ramirez (R)- Opener followed by Dillon Peters (L)
Ron Kulpa 17.02 K/9 6.14 BB/9 .259 AVG 9.63 R/9
Kulpa has a low zone overall. He’s pretty fair on the corners but doesn’t extend much up in the zone. Typically, this is a good umpire for crafty lefties and I like looking here in tournaments for my SP2. The Angels limit Kikuchi’s upside overall, but he or Peters are cheap enough to pair with Max.
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Top Stacks
A’s
Rangers
Dodgers (Contrarian)
Mets (Value)
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