I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.
Not to sound too braggadocios, but we win. And, we win a lot. Yes, MLB has its ups and downs, but proper bankroll management, a consistent process, lots of experience, and constant guidance from coaching produces results. Period. I show you this to show you the staff/coaching wins consistently….and we can show you how. What I also hope you see is that umpires make a difference. Leveraging them, as you will see below, can give you an edge the rest of the industry barely talks about. Any edge helps…
Daily Umpire Impact
We’ve got a nine-game slate tonight with a majority of the umps released. There are some weather concerns, particularly the storms developing in STL. Stay tuned into Mark’s channel before lock.
We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”
Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.
Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.
“Hit Mitts”
There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.
“Box Callers”
On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.
The Squeeze
(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)
(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)
NYM@PHI Jason Vargas (L)/Nick Pivetta (R)
Eric Cooper 17.60 K/9 6.15 BB/9 .244 AVG 8.36 R/9
Here we have one of the biggest up and down strike zones in baseball. Cooper is fair on the edges but doesn’t have an absurd zone on the corners. The biggest problem is the polar opposite arms throwing in this game. Vargas is an underwhelming overachiever while Pivetta has elite raw stuff that he’s yet to put together for more than a few innings. This feels like a pick your poison game, so I’ll stick with some one-offs for power and let the field take a gamble with either arm here.
TEX@DET Mike Minor (L)/Matthew Boyd (L)
Mark Carlson 15.75 K/9 6.97 BB/9 .257 AVG 9.43 R/9
Carlson has a tight zone on all edges and really squeezes up and down. I don’t feel comfortable paying up for these lefties with him behind the plate. Boyd’s salary on FanDuel is a slight discount, but probably not somewhere I would end up until building more than 10 lineups. I clearly see the argument for Boyd tonight because of the number of lefties in the Rangers lineup, but I just don’t want to pay up for it. For the most part, I’m using this game for one-off power and speed. Jacoby Jones is one of the best value plays on DraftKings right now and I will pair him with Brandon Dixon in tournaments.
OAK@STL Daniel Mengden (R)/Adam Wainwright (R)
Ron Kulpa 17.02 K/9 6.14 BB/9 .259 AVG 9.63 R/9
Kulpa has a low zone overall. He’s pretty fair on the corners but doesn’t extend much up in the zone. He is a solid pitcher’s umpire, and Wainwright should go underowned after Flaherty’s rough outing last night. On a slate that lacks great SP2 options, you could do worse than Wainwright at 7K. Tommy Edman is a free square lock for me tonight in all formats (weather permitting) at only 2.3K on DraftKings. He has a smooth swing from both sides with a gap to gap approach that utilizes his speed. When he turns on one from the left side there is plenty of pop to leave the yard as well.
WSH@MIA Patrick Corbin (L)/Zac Gallen (R)
Bruce Dreckman 16.65 K/9 6.77 BB/9 .244 AVG 9.08 R/9
Dreckman may not seem like a great pitcher’s ump at first glance. He grades out as neutral and calls almost exactly the league average number of strikes per game. However, his zone is much lower and wider than average. One of the best things we can do is confirm a solid umpire for a good arm in a great spot. I’ll be way over the field on Corbin tonight.
TB@MIN Charlie Morton (R)/Jake Odorizzi (R)
Jeff Nelson 16.28 K/9 6.03 BB/9 .246 AVG 8.81 R/9
Nelson favors the right side of the plate but has a fair zone overall. He is consistent up and down and should grade out as neutral for both arms tonight. Play this game straight up.
CIN@LAA Tanner Roark (R)/Jaime Barria (R)
Pat Hoberg 16.33 K/9 7.03 BB/9 .256 AVG 9.17 R/9
Hoberg is a young umpire who tends to call 4 or 5 fewer strikes than average per game. His zone is fair overall and he doesn’t mind giving the corners. The main reason for his low strikes per game is that he doesn’t give any generous 3-0 strikes or expand his zone with two strikes. I’m not worried about these numbers overall and he should have little impact on the game tonight.
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