Welcome to a test version of a future MLB article from your friends at DFS Army. The goal of this piece will be to find those homeruns that boost your DFS scores and have you leapfrogging leaderboard spots in bunches. We will focus solely on power numbers for both bats and pitchers, and we will largely center around the ISO metric indicating raw power.
All numbers cited are produced for VIPs daily inside our MLB Research Station. We may cross-reference some with Trends tabs, Pitching Hubs, and various other stats, but we largely focus on the hitter’s ISO and the pitcher’s ISO against. We aim to find strength on weakness, so let’s dive in for today’s quick Hunting Homers plays…
Main Slate #200on200 MLB Picks for June 4
Genesis Cabrera – This is the ultimate “small sample warning.” Genesis got rocked in his debut….by lefties. Typically, we avoid LvL matchups, but the 1.500 ISO to lefties might catch the eye of the noobies. We are talking about only 18 batters faced. That’s just not enough to go on yet. If you want to play the Joey Vottos, by all means, go for it. But, this is like trusting a 8 at bat BvP sample…..it doesn’t often tell you much about the overall picture. So, tread lightly.
Drew Smyly – .394 ISO given to lefties, .234 ISO given to righties – Now, we have a decent sample. That’s quite a lot of power given up to either side of the plate, honestly. The problem is most lefty bats can’t hit lefty pitching, and that takes Smyly’s weak side off the hook a bit. BAL bats in play – No LvL here, Nunez is over .200, Mancini is close at .182 ISO.
Remember to ensure your bats are in the starting lineup…or even up in the majors. I’m mentioning my sheet as inclusively as possible and am not looking at starting lineups being released. It is your responsibility to cross check with other research and to make sure your hitters of choice don’t come blindly off someone’s list. You need to make sure they are not injured and they are actually going to see at bats today.
Jerad Eickhoff – .333 ISO given to lefties – Awwwww, he went to Jerad. Yes I did. Too bad SDP has no power from that side. Again, the LvL can be tough because fewer lefty bats hit lefty pitching well and we miss opportunity to feast on weakness. Closest SDP bat I found was Eric Hosmer at about .175 ISO.
Ryan Carpenter – .311 ISO given to righties – .262 ISO given to lefties – Here is a dual sider we can play with. Overall, he sports an 82% contact rate, 40% hard contact, and while only a 35% flyball rate, he’s allowing a slate-worst 3.05 HR/9…telling me he gives up line drives and “launch angle” to cite the 2010s buzz word of the decade. Both sides of the plate are in play here and we are expecting calm skies, no rain, and a beautiful day for launch here at Canaveral. Houston, you can start the countdown… TBR bats in play – Garcia, Meadows (.267 vs LHP), Lowe (.224 vs LHP). What you also see is some LvL stuff at play, too. Double bonus! If it works, you likely get those two bats at very low ownership tonight. Good luck, the play makes a lot of sense.
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Dylan Bundy – .279 ISO given to righties, .215 ISO given to lefties – Add in 46% flyballs, 40% hard contact, and the hitter’s parks of either Camden or Arlington (I mean who cares which park, balls fly out of both). TEX bats in play – Choo, Cabrera, Guzman, Odor (close at .192 ISO vs R).
Taylor Clarke – .244 ISO given to lefties – Another “small sample,” but we do see a lot of red colors in our Research Station today next to his name. And, he faces the Dodgers, who can mash from the left side. Dodgers hit, as a team, for .344 woba and .207 ISO vs RHP. So, lock and load. LAD bats in play – Bellinger (.275), Muncy (.304), Pederson (.340!), Seager.
Jeff Hoffman – .240 ISO given to righties – We don’t have a lot of right handed mashers on the Cubs. And, Hoffman handles the lefties fairly well, giving only a .149 ISO to them. But, we also have the wind blowing out at Wrigley tonight and a 75 degree night. That warrants a little attention. CHC bats in play – Baez (.252 ISO vs RHP)…the lefties might be stackable in these conditions.
Shane Bieber – .224 ISO given to lefties – Bieber has talent, but MIN upped their power game this year. The Twins hit a threatening .189 ISO vs RHP as a team. Once again, we have a little breeze blowing out in CLE tonight adding to the potential fireworks. Bieber gives up 38% hard contact, too, but he doesn’t actually allow many homeruns. So, it’s not a total green light. MIN bats in play – Castro, Polanco, Rosario, Kepler, Arraez (whom I’m making my “value call of the night at 2B”)
MLB Honorable Mentions
OAK bats – Olson (.242 vs R), Khris Davis (.285), Chapman (.254), Piscotty (.200)…..”Sneaky Stack!”
Francisco Lindor/Jordan Luplow – .213/.368 ISO against lefties, respectively.
Jesus Aguilar/Keston Hiura – .230/.253 ISO against righties.
Josh Reddick/Derek Fisher – .243/.269 ISO against lefties. (No one will think of Reddick for power here and he’s cheap.)
Juan Soto/Matt Adams – .231/.250 ISO vs righties.
*This #200on200 thing is just one parameter in which you might look through the RS for when choosing thunder bats*. When you find one of your own, feel free to tweet me @Choppodong or @dfsarmy on Twitter, and let’s have some fun with this metric!
Obviously, there are many other MLB coaching notes, methodologies, and processes to evaluate. But, ISO given up by a pitcher to the power ISO of a bat just makes logical sense and is here to point out great matchups………..not predict results. In conjunction with other factors, though, you can really find some 5-star matchups tonight and put yourself in a great position to accumulate some points in bunches. Try it tonight.
(One way to crosscheck this number is to look at L7 woba (in Trends tab of our Research Station) and see who is also hitting well recently. I would be less excited about some great #200on200 guy hitting .150 woba over the last week than if I found some guy hitting a .500 and tearing the cover off the ball when he finds this kind of matchup tonight.)
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Until next time, I’ll see you inside our coaching rooms at DFS Army!