For the first time since 2009, the PGA Tour heads back to Michigan as Detroit Golf Club hosts the Rocket Mortgage Classic!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!
Chez! What a win! Powered by a clutch 3rd round where he made just about every putt he looked at, he clutched up on Sunday and played solid golf all the way to the end for his first win since 2008! It was a weird week. Keegan Bradley learned how to putt. Justin Thomas forgot how to putt. And Brooks Koepka looked human. Overall, a fun week with maybe not the biggest names contending, but interesting stories none the less, and it feels like we might be seeing Bryson DeChambeau come back into form heading into the Open Championship where he is likely to present a pretty good value.
Check out all of our PGA tools, the research station, articles, and coaches notes here!
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This week the tour heads back to Michigan for the first time since 2009 for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, a new event that is taking the place of the Quicken Loans National in the PGA tour schedule and is being held at Detroit Golf Club. Detroit Golf Club is hosting it’s first major event since the 1992 US Mid-Am and looks to be in great shape, but there is a cloud hanging over the club as the groundskeepers are threatening to strike come Thursday if they don’t have a contract settlement! Check out the story here —> Rocket Mortgage Classic Strike
Course Breakdown:
The Rocket Mortgage Classic will take place at Detroit Golf Club, a Donald Ross design on the north side of Detroit. Detroit Golf Club is home two separate courses, the North Course which is a par 72 that typically measures 6,936 yards, and the South Course, a short par 68 that measures 5,986 yards. For this event, the tour players will be playing 17 holes on the North Course and 1 hole from the South Course. The crew at Detroit Golf Club has lengthened some of the holes pretty significantly by building new tee boxes and it is supposed to be playing at 7390 yards, which makes it one of the longer courses players will play this year, and longest since 4 weeks ago at the Memorial.
The course has a nice mix of short and long holes and it has a pretty even split. 2 short par 3’s, 2 long ones. 4 super short par 4’s, 2 medium length par 4’s, and 4 long par 4’s. 2 short par 5’s that are reachable in two and 2 long par 5’s, which require a layup and evens the playing field for some of the shorter hitters. While there isn’t much water on the course, there is a pond in front of the green on the par 5 14th hole which is easily reachable in two for the longer hitters and should cause some havoc for players who try to go for it and hit a poor shot.
Last week I posted a video breakdown of how I build GPP lineups here DFS Golf GPP Lineup Building Strategies,
Check it out for some great insight into how I go about building lineups for MME! These next two weeks are great weeks to practice this strategy prior to the PGA Championship!
The greens here and a mix of poa annua and bentgrass like most in the midwest and while they likely won’t be flowering and real bumpy, they won’t necessarily run true either. The big defense on these greens is the heavy undulation, something players who have played the last few events should be used to. Putting the ball in the proper spot on the green, particularly below the hole, will be key for those wanting to make birdies.
All of the greens are heavily guarded by bunkers with an average of four on each hole though they are fairly shallow and easy to get out of. There are also a number of strategically placed fairway bunkers that will come into play for the longer hitters and may force them to hit three wood off some these tees, taking their power advantage out of their hands. Most of the holes are fairly straight forward though and don’t require a perfect tee shot with lots of wide landing zones. The rough, though touted as being ‘very thick’ is actually fairly short and no problem at all for these tour players. And while tree-lined, the trees are old and mature with no hanging limbs making them fairly easy to get around if one ends up going that far off track
If players can hit the fairway they should be able to attack these greens, putting a premium on ballstriking this week. That being said, I think this course really sets up as a ‘bomb and gouge’ type course. Take driver off the tee, let it rip, go find it and hit a wedge into these greens. Scores ‘should’ be low. Here’s the benefit for our DFS Army VIPs this week, Taco went to the course on Tuesday to watch the practice round. The entire industry is talking about how there’s a premium placed on accuracy here and any wayward tee shots will be punished by this ‘thick’ rough and the trees. We know, from his intel, that that really shouldn’t be the case. In fact, he said he didn’t see anyone hit less than driver off the tee the entire day! I think this is a huge advantage for us, and one we can absolutely exploit this week.
So how do we find out who is a good ball striker and a course fit for there?? Oh yeah in our research station!
Overall, I think this is going to be a really fun test of golf, but not oe that should be particularly taxing for the tour pros. Birdies will be king, and those who can string them together will have a big advantage when it comes to DK scoring this week. The four rounds under 70 bonus will be in play for a big portion of the field as well. Those 5 points might be the difference between winning and losing a GPP this week.
Weather:
I LOVE when we don’t have to worry about the weather.
Typical, mid-summer week in the midwest. Warm, likely humid, and a chance of spotty thunderstorms. Timing of these storms will be difficult to predict but they mostly occur in the afternoon/evening after the heating the during the day. It’s not something I’m going to try to avoid since the predictability of them is so difficult. It’s possible during the showdown slates that we target some tee times when we have a little bit better handle on the weather, but I don’t think it’s going to play a role at all here.
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club.
Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and former DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.
The good Rory leads the way here followed by more value plays in that mid 7K to mid 8K range. One that everyone in the top ten here has in common is solid recent form. The board is littered with green boxes, meaning that all of these guys are playing good golf right now, but none more so than Sabbatini who has just been on a tear this year. He’s heated up in the past and then fell back to his baseline, but with the way he’s playing this may actually be his new baseline.
Kevin Streelman and Nick Watney are two ‘value’ plays that I’m really interested in. Both have been playing some good golf, and have a good history at some of the comp courses, particularly on Donald Ross designs. Watney is just way too cheap on DK given his recent performance and the same goes for Streelman on FD.
Hideki Matsuyama is a core play for me this week and someone I’ll be heavily invested in, but more on him in the Chalk Donkey section.
After an injury held him out for a few weeks, Sam Ryder has had back to back decent weeks and his game is starting to come back. He’s a solid course fit. and so cheap, he can make some stars and scrubs line ups really work if he makes the cut.
Finally, Sungjae Im presents a great value and at a course where there’s a premium on birdies, he is a core play. The concern is that his irons weren’t up to their usual snuff last week and reports from the course week say he’s still struggling just a bit with his approach.
Projected DK Score:
Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score) is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.
No surprise that the most expensive player in the field shows up here. DJ is the class of the field, but that 12k price tag can really hamstring the rest of your build and I’m not sure this is a course he can run away with the tournament at. Clearly the best player here, but if he shoots -22 and there are four or five guys within a few strokes of him, he’s not likely to be in the winning lineup.
Sungjae Im just scores DK points. I love it. If you look at his projected round score he ranks 14th but is 2nd in DK points per round. What this tells us is that he might not have the best score to par, but he will be up there in DK points. He makes tons of birdies and eagles and strings them together for the streak bonuses, making him an excellent DK play.
The three other players at the top of the salary board make the top ten here as well which is pretty standard considering the strength of the field. All are excellent plays this week, but three guys who should come in at low ownership that are interesting here are Keith Mitchell, Sam Ryder, and Wyndham Clark.
We mentioned Ryder above, but Mitchell and Clark both rate out well here and are great scorers. Similar stories with them not necessarily having the best score to par, but being great at stringing together birdies. Mitchell has been on a bit of a cold spell so runs some risk here but I think this is a great fit for him. Clark should benefit from the wide fairways and if his putter can stay hot he will absolutely contend as he smashes par 5’s.
SG: Approach L25
As we’ve talked about, earlier, the only real defense this course has is the undulating greens, so putting the ball in the right spot, particularly below the hole will be huge this week. This means there’s even more of an emphasis on SG: Approach this week.
Streels shows up, here again, making him a player I’m seriously considering for my core this week. And he’s actually been better over the last 10 rounds, which is crazy to think.
Core play Hideki Matsuyama also pops as his irons are something that he’s always been top of the field in, along with Gary Woodland.
A little deeper though we have some guys who are priced within the ownership bubble this week that are really interesting. With the way ownership looks and structuring of lineups, it looks like the 7k-7.5k range will be vastly underowned, presenting an opportunity to jump on some skill players at low ownership. Corey Conners, Troy Merritt, and Peter Malnati all are guys I’ll be rostering this week because of their excellent approach game.
Conners has been a bit shaky since his win but is starting to trend back up towards the form he showed earlier in the year. He’s close to his hometown in Ontario and will hopefully benefit from some wider fairways here.
Birdies or Better Gained;
Scoring will be massive this week and how do we score? Birdies and Eagles. This stat looks at who does that the best, relative to the field.
This list looks pretty similar to the one with projected DK points per round but there are a few interesting plays in here.
Coming off a BAD missed cut last week at the Travelers’, Jason Kokrak makes some sense here at pretty low ownership. His price stayed the same after missing the cut and let’s not forget, prior to that MC he had made EVERY single cut this year.
Viktor Hovland is young and in only his second event as a pro, but he has been remarkably consistent, particularly off the tee with his only real weakness being his putter. He’s shown he can score in bunches at much harder courses and I think makes a really interesting play this week.
Other key stats to consider: Fantasy Points Gained, Double Bogey Avoidance, SG: short Par 5, Greens in Regulation %, Field Rank Weak Field %
One thing, that puts us at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. If you aren’t using it to build lineups you’re crazy! Check out how it works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.
In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.
And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:
Above 9K Chalk
Hideki Matsuyama: DK $10200/FD $11,300
Projected GPP ownership: 25%-27%
It wouldn’t surprise me if Dustin Johnson ended up the highest owned player in this range, but for now, it looks like Hideki will lead the charge at a pretty big discount salary-wise from DJ. I think Hideki is a smash play this week. I’ve already bet him but I think he’s an even better play in DFS.
Hideki has had success at Donald Ross courses in the past and also has won at Firestone CC former home of the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational which I consider a comp course. He makes a ton of birdies and is arguably the best tee to green player in this field. His recent wins have come at scores of -16, -23, and -17 so he’s absolutely capable of winning a birdie fest, and in fact, it probably suits him better.
The one big positive for Hideki is that he’s starting to figure it out with his putter. He’s actually gaining over his last 25 rounds and has had positive putting statistics in four straight tournaments. The last time he did that was in 2016 and he went on to win 2 of his next three starts, continuing to ride a hot putter.
So what do you do with Hideki if he’s going to be somewhat highly owned? I think he’s a lock in cash games at this price, and I’m actually considering going all in on him in GPP. 100% ownership. It’s a scary thing to do, but that’s how strongly I feel about him and his game this week. At a minimum, I’ll have 70% Hideki in GPP.
Above 9K Pivot:
Patrick Reed: DK $9,300/FD $10,800
Projected GPP Ownership: 7%%-10%
While it doesn’t feel great, I actually have some interest in Patrick Reed this week. He’s sandwiched between two likely popular plays in Ryan Moore and Billy Horschel and while his form isn’t great it’s been trending in the right direction and we finally get back to a par 72 where he gets four par 5’s to feast on.
Above is how Reed scores on the type of holes on this course, and you can see that he ranks in the top 25 of scoring on 15 of the 18 holes. That puts him 15th overall in terms of projected DK Points. He’s actually 4th in projected course score.
Where he struggles typically is off the tee and hitting fairways. That shouldn’t be too big of an issue here with the wider fairways (think of his success at Augusta where we have the widest fairways on tour) and if he does miss the rough shouldn’t be very penal. Recently, he has started to see a bit of a resurgence in his strokes gained statistics as he fights off a couple of bad weeks earlier in the year that really skews them.
Not only is he a good course fit, but he also’s a former winner on a Donald Ross design and since we don’t have much to go on this week in terms of course history I think that’s a narrative worth following.
At low ownership, Reed could absolutely contend this week and if he does he’ll win you a GPP.
Other highly owned players (over 15%): Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, Ryan Moore, Billy Horschel, Chez Reavie
7.5K – 9K Chalk
Joaquin Niemann: DK $8900/FD $9800
Projected GPP Ownership: 17%-20%
Following a week where he had his first top ten since last November, Joaquin Niemann is projecting to be fairly popular this week. The issue for me is that he really hasn’t shown any consistency and his price jumped up like crazy on the back of only one good week.
Niemann is a supreme talent. He’s also supremely streaky. Last year he would pop and have back to back top tens only to run it back with back to back missed cuts. This sort of feels like that sort of thing again. For him to contend he needs to putt well. Last week he gained a ridiculous 3.2 strokes putting on Sunday to make a jump up the board. The prior week he lost a stroke and a half and finished 31st.
He hits tons of greens, gives himself lots of opportunities, but to contend and hit value at this price he likely needs a hot putter for not just one, but two rounds. If he was priced around 8k I’d be on board, but I’d rather pivot down to a better scorer like Sungjae Im than play an overpriced Niemann who needs the most variant club in his bag to produce for a few days to hit value.
7.5K – 9K Pivot:
Bubba Watson: DK $8700/FD $10,700
Projected GPP Ownership: 7%-10%
Following a mediocre week, Bubba Watson saw his price DECREASE in a much weaker field. This is a great opportunity to jump on a world-class talent (and birdie maker) at low ownership on a course that really should fit his game.
Despite the negative sentiment towards Bubba over the last few weeks (he’s missed the cut at both majors, and finished towards the back half of the field in his other two events) he actually hasn’t been playing that bad. He continues to gain strokes off the tee, and while his irons have been a bit off, it’s been the around the green game that’s killed him. With the green size here, he should be able to negate that this week.
Bomb and gouge courses are PERFECT for Bubba. He can bomb it, go find it, hit a wedge into the green, and if it’s close enough, make a putt. He loves to make birdies and can string them together with the best of em (he made 5 in a row last week).
Bubba is one of my favorite sneaky plays this week. With everyone focusing on ball strikers and guys who are accurate off the tee, I think he makes a ton of sense as a pivot who can absolutely crush it out there and score.
Other highly owned players (over 12%): Kevin Streelman, Jason Dufner, Nick Watney, Byeong Hun An,
Check out my Course Preview Article for my full betting card!
–> UpNorth’s PGA Preview – Rocket Mortgage Classic <–
Below 7.5K
Not surprisingly given the lack of pedigree below 7.5K this week there is no player who is looking like massive chalk. The ownership appears to be pretty spread out with most players around 3%-4% owned. The only guys generating any buzz are actually priced below 7K in Sepp Straka, Sam Ryder and Hank Lebioda (All three are great plays and part of my player pool). Here are a few lower owned players I’m interested in this week.
Corey Conners: DK $7300/FD $8700
Playing close to his hometown, Conner’s has seen his game start to come back to the form that helped him win the Valero Texas Open earlier this year. This course should really suit his game with the wide fairways and a premium placed on Strokes Gained: Approach. Also one of the better birdie makers in the field.
Harold Varner III: DK $7400/FD $9000
Two back to back solid results and now heading to a course that ‘should’ fit his game. Definite GPP play as he is boom or bust, but he makes a ton of birdies
Max Homa: DK $7300/FD $8500
Maybe my favorite play down here, Homa has been very consistent since his win at the Wells Fargo. One of the best drivers of the ball on tour, he’s also an excellent iron player. One of the top birdie or better players down here and ranks out well in terms of projected DK score.
GPP Core:
Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page!
Final Thoughts:
This is a fun week, at a brand new track and while the field isn’t great I think that actually puts us at an advantage. Make sure to be in the coaching channels Wednesday night to get our final thoughts!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!