Hello again everyone! nillyJay here – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me on Twitter, or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
Congrats to DFS Army staff member DFSnDonuts for another MLB hit!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
No surprise here, as we have the four main studs of the night all up at the top. Snell leads the way with that ridiculous 667 KSCORE / 962 VKSCORE combo, which is territory usually only seen by Chris Sale. He’s bound to be popular, so you can default to him for cash games. Strasburg isn’t too far behind, so he might be my #2 cash game guy. I’d probably save Paddack and Bieber for GPP, as their matchups are certainly a bit riskier.
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
Here are a handful of good targets you can pick on tonight, but I’m saving the best one for our VIP members!
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll kick things off in Pittsburgh, as Max Fried and the Braves will take on Steven Brault and the Pirates. This will be the first time any of the Pirates will have ever faced Fried, and given he’s shown flashes of brilliance, this could be a good spot for him to try and contend with the other top pitchers. He’s bound to have plenty of run support, as Brault isn’t exactly that high on the totem pole.
Braves 5 star plays – nine
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Swanson, Riley, Freeman
GPP note – Pretty good matchup against Brault, so stack away with confidence
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Bell, Marte
GPP note – Tough matchup against a good pitcher that they’ve never seen before. I think I would take a one-off or mini-stack and then look elsewhere
Chicago White Sox at Washington Nationals
Next up we have one really good pitcher (Strasburg) going up against a pitcher that can’t seem to steady the ship and stop getting shelled. This one looks to be heavily favored towards the Nationals on all fronts, so look here for cash games and tournaments alike.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu/Moncada?
GPP note – Very difficult matchup against a pitcher they too have never faced. I’d probably look elsewhere unless you want to go contrarian
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Soto, Eaton
GPP note – Nice matchup against Lopez, so feel free to stack away here
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
The New York Home Run Express will visit the Blue Jays in our next game, where they’ll get to face Clayton Richard. Let us pray for that man. Actually, we may need to just pray for them all, since they’ll have to face Tanaka who is capable of shutting them down for 6-8 innings. This one has New York written all over it.
Yankees 5 star plays – Sanchez
Yankees 4 star plays – Voit, Torres, Hicks, LeMahieu
GPP note – Bombs away!!
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero?
GPP note – I’m going to go ahead and take a hard pass on this entire team
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
We get our Snell game next, and you can probably guess where I’m leaning here. If you’re feeling really frisky, you could load up on some contrarian stacks here, but I don’t think that’s going to go very far tonight. Don’t forget about the Tampa Bay bats with all the Snell love here, though. They’re definitely worth a look!
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, Meadows, Garcia
GPP note – Good spot here to do some damage, so don’t forget about Snell’s teammates
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Contrarian stack of the night if you can stomach it. I can’t
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
The Twins and Indians will face off in this divisional game, and Bieber will certainly have his work cut out for him as we know how dangerous the Twins can be. Smeltzer looked really good in his debut against the Brewers, so we’ll see if he can keep that going against a talented Indians team that likes to check out on occasion.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Cron
GPP note – Tough matchup for the Twins, but these guys are always worth a look since they can put up 10+ runs without any warning
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Santana, Ramirez, Mercado
GPP note – It’s hard to know what we’ll get out of Smeltzer here, but some big stacks could pay off if he can’t live up to his debut performance
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
Our next game features the lowest total of the night, as well as two quality pitchers who may struggle to hit their ceilings here, despite the low total. Both of these offenses like to string together hits, and both pitchers have allowed more than they’d like recently, so if they aren’t on their game, this one could play to the over.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Panik, Yastrzemski
GPP note – Tough matchup against Syndergaard, but contrarian stacks could work here since he hasn’t been the Syndergaard of old much this year
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Rosario, Davis, Alonso
GPP note – Same as the Giants, though I give them a little bit better chance of spoiling the slate with another breakout game
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers
The Marlins head to Milwaukee for our next game, and they’ll send right-handed Pablo Lopez to face a team that loves to demolish righties. He’s had his share of decent games this season, but he’ll need to be on his a-game if he’ll want to survive more than a few innings here. Anderson will pitch for the Brewers, and even though the Marlins have shown some signs of life, I think he’ll be able to contain them here.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Granderson, Anderson, Castro
GPP note – Tough matchup against Anderson who can manage a game pretty well, so I can’t say I love much about this offense today
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Grandal, Thames
GPP note – The Brewers love to beat up on righties, so don’t forget about them on this big slate
Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs
The Rockies head to Wrigley for our next one, where Hoffman will look to try and get his start to the season going in a better direction. Unfortunately, that means he’ll have to face the Cubs, so good luck to him. It won’t be easy for his batters, either, as Hendricks can manage a game with the best of them.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Arenado, Story, Murphy
GPP note – Tough matchup against Hendricks, though a few of them have had some success against him in the past. The Rockies tend to go overlooked when they’re not at home, so this would be a decent place to go for some leverage stacks
Cubs 5 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant
Cubs 4 star plays – Schwarber, Baez
GPP note – If Hoffman doesn’t have things figured out a bit more, the Cubs could be in a good spot to do some damage, so look to them for some stacking options
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
We get the highest total on the board with our next game, as two volatile pitchers will face off in what might as well be a Coors game with the total and likely ownership we’ll see here. Look for both offenses here to do some damage, and you may want to stay far away from these pitchers.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Nunez
GPP note – Any sort of exposure is in play here, from one-offs to full stacks
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Mazara, Pence
GPP note – Bundy has looked decent lately, but I don’t think the Rangers will have much problem getting to him here
Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals
My Royals will host the Red Sox next, in what looks to be a semi-bullpen game for them. Sparkman has only pitched more than 3 innings once this season, so I’m not really sure what to expect out of him. I do worry about the bullpen’s ability to limit the Red Sox though, so don’t be surprised to see them have some fun at our expense.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Benintendi, Devers
GPP note – Pretty good pitching matchup for them all game long, so that 6+ implied total is warranted
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Mondesi, Merrifield, Soler
GPP note – Rodriguez is good, but I think our righties can have some success against him here. Don’t be afraid to take a few stacks
Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
Though he wasn’t in the top-5 today, we’ll see another solid pitching option with Castillo here, who will take on Genesis Cabrera and the Cardinals. We don’t know a whole lot about him, but we do know the Reds are good for the random 10+ run game, so they might be a good place of lower-owned stacks.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Senzel, Suarez
GPP note – Questionable matchup against a newer pitcher, which is probably when they’ll decide to put up a bunch of runs. They probably won’t be popular, so you could try get sneaky here
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Carpenter, Goldschmidt
GPP note – Not a great matchup against Castillo, who can limit their ceilings if he’s on top of his game (which he usually is)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
While you guys are praying for the Blue Jays, you may want to put the Diamondbacks in your thoughts as well, since their chances look about equal today. The Dodgers have a solid lineup to throw out against righties, and we’ll see that again tonight against a newer pitcher that hasn’t quite found his way yet.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Muncy, Seager
GPP note – Great place to stack some lefties, and they’ll deploy a bunch of them for the picking
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Jones
GPP note – Difficult matchup for a team that hasn’t had a ton of success against the pitcher they’ll be facing. A one-off or two might be okay, but I’d stay away from big stacks
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Two of our California teams will face off here, in a game that looks a little difficult to get a feel for at the moment. Both pitchers have looked pretty good, though I would give the nod to Montas here. On the other hand, the Angels’ offense is certainly stronger, so we’re at a bit of a stalemate here.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson, Davis, Semien
GPP note – If they can find a way to get to Canning, they could be a high-scoring stack with very little ownership. It’s been a while since they’ve gone off…
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, La Stella, Calhoun
GPP note – Tough matchup against Montas, so I’m thinking one-offs or smaller mini-stacks would be the better way to go here. Calhoun leads the way with BvP, so give him a look
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
The new Wade Miley and the Astros will face the returning Andrew Moore and the Mariners here, and interestingly enough, they’re one of the few teams who have been able to get to this new Miley. They’ve been pretty hit or miss for a while, so it’s hard to say they can do it again, but I do know they won’t be an overly popular choice tonight.
Astros 5 star plays – Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Brantley, Reddick
GPP note – It’s a new season for Moore, so we don’t really know what to expect here. The Astros have cooled off a bit, which means we’ll have another high-ceiling team with lower-than-usual ownership
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Haniger, Encarnacion, Santana
GPP note – They got to Miley earlier this year, but he’s been on a rampage ever since. I think he’ll return the favor today, but they could be worth stacking if they know a secret about him that other teams don’t
Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
And finally, our hammer game features our last stud of the night, as well as a pitcher who has had his share of good performances here and there.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Hoskins, Segura
GPP note – Tough matchup against a stud they’ve never faced before. I’m leaning towards Paddack here, but this team is full of talent, so this is a decent place to go for some late-night contrarian stacks
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Hosmer, Machado, Reyes
GPP note – Eickhoff has been hit or miss, so you could either stack here and hope for a miss, or fade them and hope for a hit. The fact that they’ve had very little success against him hurts their chances some, but I think some stacks are still in play here
DFS Army NBA staff member MrBearHere has taken quite the liking to MLB this year. Congrats on yet another win, brother!
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 6:
Quite a few interesting choices here. Do we run Riley’s hot streak against a soft lefty? How about Ozuna’s massive numbers as a GPP pivot? Does Turner get back to his RvR roots here and take advantage of a soft righty?
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
If you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. As you saw, we cover (and win!) all sports, not just the common ones. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all have a great day!